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This paper addresses the riverine flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 136 years (i.e., during the 1886–2022 period), focusing, amongst others, on the case of urban floods. The flood record of various sites of the country has been collected and analyzed to determine their spatial and temporal distribution. Greece is a country where flood data and records are very scarce. Therefore, as there is not an integrated catalog of Greek floods spanning from the 19th century to recently, this is the first attempt to create an integrated catalog for Greece. The sources used include published papers, local and regional newspapers and public bodies (mainly the Ministry of Environment and Energy and the official websites of Greek municipalities). Additionally, the main factors responsible for their occurrence have been issued, regarding the country's climatic, geological and geomorphological setting, as well as human interventions. In addition, the atmospheric circulation driving factors of floods are assessed via an unsupervised neural network approach (i.e., Self-Organizing Maps). Based on the results of this research, an online GIS-based database has been created, depicting the areas that have been struck by riverine floods in Greece. By clicking a flood event in the online database, one can view several characteristics, depending on data availability, such as duration and height of the rainfall that caused them and number of fatalities. Long-term trends of mean and extremes seasonal precipitation also linked to the spatial distribution of floods. Our analysis shows that urban floods are a very large portion of the overall flood record, and they mainly occur in the two large urban centers, Athens and Thessaloniki, as well as near large rivers such as Pineios. Autumn months and mainly November are the periods with higher flood hazards, based on past records and cyclonic atmospheric circulation constitutes the principal driving factor. Our results indicate that a flood catalog at national level is of fundamental importance, as it can provide valuable statistical insights regarding seasonality, spatial distribution of floods, etc., while it can also be used by stakeholders and researchers for flood management and flood risk analysis and modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the relationships among eight ancient scripts from between Greece and India. We used convolutional neural networks combined with support vector machines to give a numerical rating of the similarity between pairs of signs (one sign from each of two different scripts). Two scripts that had a one-to-one matching of their signs were determined to be related. The result of the analysis is the finding of the following three groups, which are listed in chronological order: (1) Sumerian pictograms, the Indus Valley script, and the proto-Elamite script; (2) Cretan hieroglyphs and Linear B; and (3) the Phoenician, Greek, and Brahmi alphabets. Based on their geographic locations and times of appearance, Group (1) may originate from Mesopotamia in the early Bronze Age, Group (2) may originate from Europe in the middle Bronze Age, and Group (3) may originate from the Sinai Peninsula in the late Bronze Age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we develop an automatic valuation model for property valuation using a large database of historical prices from Greece. The Greek property market is an inefficient, non-homogeneous market, still at its infancy and governed by lack of information. As a result modelling the Greek real estate market is a very interesting and challenging problem. The available data cover a wide range of properties across time and include the financial crisis period in Greece which led to tremendous changes in the dynamics of the real estate market. We formulate and compare linear and non-linear models based on regression, hedonic equations and artificial neural networks. The forecasting ability of each method is evaluated out-of-sample. Special care is given on measuring the success of the forecasts but also on identifying the property characteristics that lead to large forecasting errors. Finally, by examining the strengths and the performance of each method we apply a combined forecasting rule to improve forecasting accuracy. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology constitutes an accurate tool for property valuation in a non-homogeneous, newly developed market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks into the Greek-Turkish arms race a decade after an earlier contribution to the issue that relied heavily on artificial neural networks. The time period between the two papers contributes to the reliability of the results derived, not just by increasing the number of observations, but also mainly by incorporating the progress made in the realm of artificial intelligence. The focus on the case of both countries unlike the paper mentioned above that dealt with just the Greek side provides ample room for comparative purposes regarding the determinants of defense expenditure on both sides. The results derived in terms of input significance estimation support the findings of the earlier research as indicated above, pointing to the leading role of the demographic preponderance of Turkey over Greece. The paper also points to the fact that 10 years later, Turkey continues to set the arms race rules against its rival by determining the defense expenditure of Greece, whereas the role of the latter in affecting the military spending of Turkey is non-existent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the controversy that prevails concerning the extent to which an arms race is going on between Greece and Turkey. An examination of the recent contributions on this major issue beginning the year 2000 onwards suggests that the pronounced discrepancies among the conclusions drawn in these papers may be attributed to two major reasons among others: The effectiveness of the techniques employed, as well as the inadequacy of certain policy recipes to treat actual defence incidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Modeling the elasticity modulus of unbound granular pavement materials has attracted significant research interest because of its importance in pavement design particularly in PPP/BOT projects. These efforts have been hampered by three factors: (i) inability to capture the correlations between the asphalt and granular layers and the subgrade, (ii) inadequate modeling of the effects of external factors on the elasticity modulus of unbound materials, and (iii) widespread use of linear statistical relationships to model a complex and non-linear phenomenon. In this paper genetically optimized neural networks and falling weight deflectometer (FWD) back-analysis results from a newly constructed BOT project in Athens, Greece, are employed in order to evaluate pavement section design parameters. It is shown that parameter values adopted during design do not co-inside with those observed from the back-analysis studies. Further, the results indicate that the relative estimation error for the modulus of elasticity of the unbound material does not exceed 25%, while the correlation between actual and predicted values is 86%, both suggesting that the proposed approach models the physical phenomenon adequately, a finding with important practical implications particularly in PPP projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the recipe that requires defence expenditure reductions in an environment of severe budget cuts together with rising costs. The case of Greece, a country that is in the process of recovering from a six-year economic crisis, provides an example of an economy in which an import - substitution strategy via the promotion of the Hellenic Defence Industrial Base potential can contribute to both economic growth and unemployment reduction, thus adding to the effectiveness of the import-substitution policies employed and compromising between an austerity programme and the defence needs of the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduced a new ensemble learning approach, based on evolutionary fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and their hybrid structure (FCM-ANN), for time series prediction. The main aim of time series forecasting is to obtain reasonably accurate forecasts of future data from analyzing records of data. In the paper, we proposed an ensemble-based forecast combination methodology as an alternative approach to forecasting methods for time series prediction. The ensemble learning technique combines various learning algorithms, including SOGA (structure optimization genetic algorithm)-based FCMs, RCGA (real coded genetic algorithm)-based FCMs, efficient and adaptive ANNs architectures, and a hybrid structure of FCM-ANN, recently proposed for time series forecasting. All ensemble algorithms execute according to the one-step prediction regime. The particular forecast combination approach was specifically selected due to the advanced features of each ensemble component, where the findings of this work evinced the effectiveness of this approach, in terms of prediction accuracy, when compared against other well-known, independent forecasting approaches, such as ANNs or FCMs, and the long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm as well. The suggested ensemble learning approach was applied to three distribution points that compose the natural gas grid of a Greek region. For the evaluation of the proposed approach, a real-time series dataset for natural gas prediction was used. We also provided a detailed discussion on the performance of the individual predictors, the ensemble predictors, and their combination through two well-known ensemble methods (the average and the error-based) that are characterized in the literature as particularly accurate and effective. The prediction results showed the efficacy of the proposed ensemble learning approach, and the comparative analysis demonstrated enough evidence that the approach could be used effectively to conduct forecasting based on multivariate time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst a global discourse on energy resources, it is imperative to provide decision makers with a comprehensive overview of energy consumption (EC) associated with various projects, particularly wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Ensuring compliance with stringent effluent quality criteria in the treatment of municipal wastewater necessitates a substantial EC, representing a predominant factor contributing to the operational expenses incurred by WWTP. Machine learning (ML) techniques can contribute to the estimation of the WWTPs' EC, which requires efficient and accurate data. This article uses data from several municipal WWTP projects in Greece, which are examined in order to produce EC estimation models. Data were first statistically analyzed, according to the context of project attributes and the context of EC, and correlation analysis identified the appropriate predictive project variables. Then, the attribute selection function in Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis 3.8.4 (WEKA 3.8.4) software emphasized the most effective subset of variables. The extracted variables from the combination of the correlation analysis and the WEKA attribute function were used as input neurons for the construction of neural network (NN) models, in the Fast Artificial Neural Network Tool 1.2 (FANN Tool 1.2). The optimum NN model resulted in a mean squared error (MSE) of 8.99899 × 10−5 and was based on treatment capacity, flow rate, influent load, and served population as its inputs. Notably, the research highlights the potential generalizability of these models in Greece and beyond the Greek context, offering valuable tools for stakeholders to inform decision making, allocate resources efficiently, and improve energy-efficient designs, resulting in cost savings and sustainability benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The images of the Sentinel-2 constellation can help the verification process of farmers' declarations, providing, among other things, accurate spatial explicit maps of the agricultural land cover. The aim of the study is to design, develop, and evaluate two deep learning (DL) architectures tailored for agricultural land cover and crop type mapping. The focus is on a detailed class scheme encompassing fifteen distinct classes, utilizing Sentinel-2 imagery acquired on a monthly basis throughout the year. The study's geographical scope covers a diverse rural area in North Greece, situated within southeast Europe. These architectures are a Temporal Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and a combination of a Recurrent and a 2D Convolutional Neural Network (R-CNN), and their accuracy is compared to the well-established Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. The comparative approach is not restricted to simply presenting the results given by classification metrics, but it also assesses the uncertainty of the classification results using an entropy measure and the spatial distribution of the classification errors. Furthermore, the issue of sampling strategy for the extraction of the training set is highlighted, targeting the efficient handling of both the imbalance of the dataset and the spectral variability of instances among classes. The two developed deep learning architectures performed equally well, presenting an overall accuracy of 90.13% (Temporal CNN) and 90.18% (R-CNN), higher than the 86.31% overall accuracy of the RF approach. Finally, the Temporal CNN method presented a lower entropy value (6.63%), compared both to R-CNN (7.76%) and RF (28.94%) methods, indicating that both DL approaches should be considered for developing operational EO processing workflows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to investigate the utility of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) on the Peloponnese Peninsula in Greece for two representative months of wintertime and summertime during 2016–2019 and to test if using fewer inputs could lead to satisfactory predictions. Datasets from sixty-two meteorological stations were employed. The available inputs were mean temperature (Tmean), sunshine (N), solar radiation (Rs), net radiation (Rn), vapour pressure deficit (es-ea), wind speed (u2) and altitude (Z). Nineteen Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) and Radial Basis Function (RBF) models were tested and compared against the corresponding FAO-56 Penman Monteith (FAO PM) estimates of a previous study, via statistical indices. The MLP1 7-2 model with all the variables as inputs outperformed the rest of the models (RMSE = 0.290 mm d−1, R2 = 98%). The results indicate that even ANNs with simple architecture can be very good predictive models of ETo for the Peloponnese, based on the literature standards. The MLP1 model determined Tmean, followed by u2, as the two most influential factors for ETo. Moreover, when one input was used (Tmean, Rn), RBFs slightly outperformed MLPs (RMSE < 0.385 mm d−1, R2 ≥ 96%), which means that even a sole-input ANN resulted in satisfactory predictions of ETo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significant increase of wind energy production worldwide revealed the necessity of its accurate forecasting. However, this is a very complex and, despite the progress made, more accurate forecasting methods are still needed. Accurate forecasts will contribute to a better power plant and grid management by solving problems related to the distribution and storage of the produced electricity, maximizing thus the profits of wind energy investments, contributing ultimately to their further enhancement. Here we present the development and validation of selected artificial neural network (ANN) wind energy forecasting models that produce hourly forecasts for 24 hours forecast horizon. The models are developed and validated using wind speed, direction, and energy produced by a wind power plant located at a semi-mountainous area in Western Greece. The ANN forecasts are compared against those of the persistence method using the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents an artificial intelligence approach integrated with geographical information systems (GISs) for modeling urban evolution. Fuzzy logic and neural networks are used to provide a synthetic spatiotemporal methodology for the analysis, prediction and interpretation of urban growth. The proposed urban model takes into account the changes over time in population and building use patterns. A GIS is used for handling the spatial and temporal data, performing contingency analysis and mapping the results. Spatial entities with similar characteristics are grouped together in clusters by the use of a fuzzy c-means algorithm. Each cluster represents a specific level of urban growth and development. A two-layer feed-forward multilayer perceptron artificial neural network is then used to predict urban growth. The model, applied to the prefecture of Attica, Greece, delineates the current and future evolution trends of the Athens metropolitan area, which are illustrated by maps of the urban growth dynamics. The proposed methodology aims to assist planners and decision makers in gaining insight into the transition from rural to urban. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Missing data are omnipresent in forestry research, and this poses problems in the analysis of primary data. Many statistical problems have been viewed as missing data problems. To cope with incomplete data, several methods are currently being used. They are all based on assumptions some of which might not be valid in a particular case. The choice mostly depends on the objective of the study. Considerable mensuration research is motivated by the need for yield projections that can support forest management decisions. This paper is focused on a new approach for filling gaps in diameter measurements on standing tree boles. Dealing with this problem, an attempt was made to examine the applicability of artificial neural network models for missing data estimation and to use the estimated values in the subsequent analysis. The procedure that should be followed in the development of such models is outlined. The results show good performance of the examined ANN models compared to regression treatments for missing data and ANN models demonstrate their adequacy and potential for filling gaps in diameter measurements on standing tree boles. The ANN models applied in this study are sufficiently general and have great potential to be applicable for estimating the missing values of many variables in environmental applications. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• The system aims to minimize the gas consumption of domestic boilers for heating. • Neural Networks and a Genetic Algorithm are used for the optimal boiler operation. • Target is to find the optimal control instructions to be sent to the boiler. • The model leads mostly to lower boiler modulation, namely lower water temperatures. • Significant gas consumption reduction attained with the operation of the system. This paper presents a novel approach that aims to minimize the natural gas consumption of domestic boilers for heating purposes, while not compromising the user's heating needs. The system utilizes gas consumption data, the conditions both inside and outside the house collected via interconnected commercial thermostats, and the heating needs of the users. The architecture of the presented system is divided in two main coordinated processes: (a) the first one consists of two Neural Networks with Convolutional and Long Short-Term Memory layers, used to predict the indoor temperature and the boiler's modulation (load percentage), whereas (b) the second process includes a Genetic Algorithm used to determine the optimal operation conditions of the boiler, by finding the boiler control instructions that meet the user's heating preferences concerning the target indoor temperature, while minimizing the total gas consumption. One main advantage of the solution is its ability to consider boilers as a black box, since it does not need to be aware of the internal mechanics. In this way, the proposed methodology can be applied to a wide range of domestic gas boilers with minimum adjustments. The overall methodology is applied to four domestic boilers in Greece spanning three cities, to capture different climatic conditions and evaluate the system performance in varying outdoor conditions. The attained results indicate that the proposed system can lead to significant gas consumption reduction through autonomously created optimal control instructions provided to the boiler. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing wine taste quality is a key factor for successful sales in the wine industry, where the aim is to meet consumer's demands. This is obtained by the analytic method of wine vinification. Evaluation of the wine's quality as determined by wine experts, according to sensor properties, plays an important role. This study introduces an alternative method for wine quality prediction by using machine learning techniques, such as linear regression and neural networks. The purpose is to make the evaluation process less expensive and less time-consuming at various stages of the production process. Our data analysis is based on a real wine dataset provided by an established winery in Greece. First of all, we study the correlation of quality with physicochemical features of wine considered at the winery. Statistical analysis indicates a significant interaction between the variables involved. We handle this problem by using Artificial Neural Networks(ANN). It is shown that ANN improves the accuracy of predicting wine quality based on the features selected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide contingent empirical evidence on the solutions to three problems associated with univariate time series forecasting using machine learning (ML) algorithms by conducting an extensive multiple-case study. These problems are: (a) lagged variable selection, (b) hyperparameter handling, and (c) comparison between ML and classical algorithms. The multiple-case study is composed by 50 single-case studies, which use time series of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation observed in Greece. We focus on two ML algorithms, i.e. neural networks and support vector machines, while we also include four classical algorithms and a naïve benchmark in the comparisons. We apply a fixed methodology to each individual case and, subsequently, we perform a cross-case synthesis to facilitate the detection of systematic patterns. We fit the models to the deseasonalized time series. We compare the one- and multi-step ahead forecasting performance of the algorithms. Regarding the one-step ahead forecasting performance, the assessment is based on the absolute error of the forecast of the last monthly observation. For the quantification of the multi-step ahead forecasting performance we compute five metrics on the test set (last year's monthly observations), i.e. the root mean square error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, the ratio of standard deviations, the coefficient of correlation and the index of agreement. The evidence derived by the experiments can be summarized as follows: (a) the results mostly favour using less recent lagged variables, (b) hyperparameter optimization does not necessarily lead to better forecasts, (c) the ML and classical algorithms seem to be equally competitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Normal lung function values are conventionally calculated according to prediction equations. The primary objective of this study is the development of a different method for the prediction of FVC and FEV 1 parameters, in order to achieve better correlation of the predicted values to the real ones. Using a sample from the Greek elderly population that was separated into two groups (a training and a testing one), a number of artificial neural networks were trained. Considering that men and women were studied separately and that two parameters (FVC, FEV 1 ) were the target of the study, four cases came up. In each case two neural networks were trained using different transfer functions, number of neurons and number of layers. When passing the inputs of the testing data set to the trained networks it was found that the outputs were well correlated with the corresponding measures of the sample. Furthermore, the match with the sample, for a number of neural networks developed, was better compared to the matches of Baltopoulos et al . study that used the same sample for developing prediction equations. This high match allows the potential use of neural networks for predicting not only FVC and FEV 1 but also other spirometric parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) Background: Forecasting of energy consumption demand is a crucial task linked directly with the economy of every country all over the world. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasting allows policy makers to formulate natural gas supply planning and apply the right strategic policies in this direction. In order to develop a real accurate natural gas (NG) prediction model for Greece, we examine the application of neuro-fuzzy models, which have recently shown significant contribution in the energy domain. (2) Methods: The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a flexible and easy to use modeling method in the area of soft computing, integrating both neural networks and fuzzy logic principles. The present study aims to develop a proper ANFIS architecture for time series modeling and prediction of day-ahead natural gas demand. (3) Results: An efficient and fast ANFIS architecture is built based on neuro-fuzzy exploration performance for energy demand prediction using historical data of natural gas consumption, achieving a high prediction accuracy. The best performing ANFIS method is also compared with other well-known artificial neural networks (ANNs), soft computing methods such as fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and their hybrid combination architectures for natural gas prediction, reported in the literature, to further assess its prediction performance. The conducted analysis reveals that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed ANFIS architecture results is less than 20% in almost all the examined Greek cities, outperforming ANNs, FCMs and their hybrid combination; and (4) Conclusions: The produced results reveal an improved prediction efficacy of the proposed ANFIS-based approach for the examined natural gas case study in Greece, thus providing a fast and efficient tool for utterly accurate predictions of future short-term natural gas demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]