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The paper investigates employment effects of falling exports from China to the EU and US during the great trade collapse of 2008-9. The paper uses fixed multiplier analysis to address employment effects resulting from input-output production linkages between trade and employment as well as from associated changes in household income and expenditures. Main findings are that substantial negative employment effects resulted in China from these linkages; that a large share of these employment effects were income-induced; and that industries in which women workers were disproportionately represented were harder hit through these linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the role and significance of bilateral trade flows between U.S. and India utilizing historical quarterly time series data for 50 years. The results indicate strong and rising trade linkages between the two countries in terms of exports, imports, and trade volume along with a rising trade imbalance for the U.S. specially since the liberalization of the Indian economy in the mid-eighties and early nineties. The paper identified top 15 U.S. export and import products which are based on comparative advantage and found U.S. has strong advantage in High skill- and technology-intensive products but disadvantage in low skill and semi-skill intensive products. The paper also conducted intra-industry trade using Grubel-Lloyd index for the top products and found limited but growing intra-industry trade. Further, the paper found that the U.S. trade penetration into India's import market has declined over the years, but still remains at a reasonably higher rate than India's trade penetration in the U.S. import market. On the other hand, India's trade penetration in the U.S. market shows a U-shape pattern in that the degree of penetration has declined and then started to increase since year 2000. In terms of bilateral trade significance in terms of exports to each other relative to their respective exports to the world, the paper finds that the Indian market is less important for the U.S. as an export destination than the U.S. market for India. The results obtained shed important insights into the bilateral trade between the two countries and is expected to be helpful in formulating trade policies and strategies for promoting mutual gains from trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pundits and scholars have long debated the effectiveness of foreign aid: does it lead to economic growth or is it simply throwing money 'down the rat hole'? This paper re-invigorates the debate by examining the question through a new lens. Rather than examining the effectiveness of general foreign aid on economic growth, this paper tests the impact of targeted foreign aid on a narrower economic activity. Specifically, this paper investigates the impact of United States trade capacity building aid. This targeted aid aims to increase recipient countries' exporting capacity, which may lead to growth, rather than directly increasing growth. If trade capacity building assistance is universally effective, one would expect to see increases in recipient-country exports to both the US and the rest of the world. If trade capacity building is selectively effective, recipient-country exports should increase only to the US. If trade capacity building is ineffective, one would expect no impact on recipient-country exports. This paper finds substantial support that US trade capacity building is selectively effective. US trade capacity building tends to increase recipient-country exports to the United States, but not to the rest of the world. Although the US results may not be generalizable to other donors, this approach suggests an easily expandable research program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the relative sophistication of the Korean export products in manufacturing industry both across and within products between 1989 and 2012 using the very detailed United States import data. I first compare Korea's export performance in the US market in terms of market share, product penetration and export similarity to those of its rival countries. Next, I propose far more extensive estimates of difference in export quality between Korea and its trading rivals. The estimated quality difference reveals substantial heterogeneity across products and countries. In particular, this paper shows that the current greatest competitor of Korea is still Japan in the US market, but China is steadily climbing up the quality ladder and is chasing after Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global value chains (GVCs) require new methods for evaluating interconnections among countries, which can no longer be accurately appraised by standard bilateral gross trade flows. This paper uses tools of network analysis to examine the evolution of value-added trade from 1995 to 2011. GVCs are very centralised and asymmetric networks, with a few large economies acting as hubs, which exposes them to the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. As GVCs expanded, the networks of foreign value added in exports became denser, more complex and intensively connected. The regional dimension of GVCs is still dominant but is progressively giving place to a more global network. Networks of foreign value added in goods exports outpace those of services exports. However, foreign inputs of services are important for exports of both goods and services. There is a striking rise of China as a supplier of value added, while Germany and the United States maintain a central role in GVCs over the whole period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent academic work has suggested that China's exports to the United States contain a large portion of non-Chinese value added. This paper looks at what the findings of this work could suggest for U.S. and Chinese trade balances, provides some theoretical cautions in interpreting valueadded trade findings, and applies those cautions to U.S. and Chinese trade balances. The paper begins by showing that a country's reported trade balance with the world is always the same as its value-added trade balance with the world. Thus, to the extent that China's net exports to the United States are lower on a value-added than on a reported basis, China's net exports to some other countries must be correspondingly higher on a value-added basis than on a reported basis. China must also have a substantially smaller market for imported final goods than reported import data suggest. Additionally, the paper discusses data and theoretical issues in comparing Chinese value added to value added in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the evolution of the trilateral trade relationship between Mexico, the United States and China, and its main characteristics, from 1993 to 2020, through the application of vector autoregressive (VAR) models at different points in time. More specifically, trade links between these economies have been transformed from a first phase of little significance to a second phase with profound interrelationships since 2001, and finally to a current consolidation stage, despite the current increasingly complex environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the impact of a series of tariffs imposed by the U.S. government which led to a trade war with China in 2018. Topics discussed include impact of tariffs on foreign export prices and import values, expansion of tariff application on imports from China in July 2018, and use of an event-study specification to review the impact of tariffs on U.S. import values and prices.

The United States is capable of becoming an exporting juggernaut if it follows the right policies. This paper discusses what goals the United States should pursue and how it should go about reaching them. The goals should be ambitious-more ambitious than current policy suggests. Gross exports should increase to about 20 percent of GDP, whereas the current account deficit should decline to about 2 percent. The most important instruments to achieve these goals are liberalization of export controls, aggressive pursuit of trade agreements, and exchange rate correction-particularly with China. The paper gives estimates of what can be achieved by these instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines US goods trade with China, focusing on the performance of exports. Throughout the analysis, we explore whether US trade is unusual by contrasting it with trade from Japan and the EU-15. The issue is examined from three perspectives: the commodity composition of exports, the role of multinational firms, and the estimation of a set of 'gravity equations' that explore the role of market size and distance from the United States. We find that the commodity composition of trade with China is not distorted, nor can the low level be related to an unusual role of US multinationals in China. Instead, distance does seem to exert a surprisingly large effect on trade. Finally, while exports to China may be a small share of US GDP, they are relatively substantial compared to US exports to other countries. In other words, the measure of US trade performance in China is distorted by the low level of its exports to all countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part I of this research examined the pattern of world textile trade in light of theoretical perspectives of the developmental stages of the global textile industry and trade and the empirical evidence from CMS analysis of textile exports of the EC, the Far East and Emerging Textile Exporting countries in the 1980s. This paper is Part II of this research and attempts to obtain empirical evidence from the pattern of U.S. textile exports in the 1980s. U.S. textile exports in the 1980s showed the lowest growth among world competitors, a negative trade balance and decreased market shares in developed and developing markets. CMS results reveal that the growth of the world economy and textile trade was the main source of the growth of U.S. textile exports during the decade. The industry structure was not a significant source mainly because U.S. textile exports were more focused on low-growth export markets and textile commodities. Prices of U.S. textile exports were competitive in 1979-81 but became not competitive in 1982-84 and 1985-87 due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar in the early 1980s. The recovery of competitiveness of U.S. export prices in 1988-90 demonstrates the positive effects of the weakening U.S. dollar by the mid-1980s and the U.S. textile industry's restructuring, improved productivity and decreased production costs. U.S. textile exports in the 1980s showed a shift in specialization away from the commodities of mass-standardization and inter-industry trade, where the U.S. comparative advantage was declining, to increasing specialization in commodities of high product differentiation and intra-industry trade based on its high skill levels and capital and evolving domestic consumer demand. This paper concludes that the identified pattern of U.S. textile exports in the 1980s was consistent with the trade pattern of the textile industry and trade at developmental Stage Three. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a legal–economic assessment of the WTO Panel Report in US–Animals, one of a growing list of WTO disputes arising due to problematic conditions under which an importing country closes and reopens its market after an infectious disease outbreak in an exporting country. The United States banned imports of beef from Argentina following a 2000 Argentine outbreak of highly contagious foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease not found in the United States since 1929. The United States refused to relax its import ban, and Argentina filed a WTO dispute in 2012, more than six years after its last FMD outbreak. Our analysis starts with Argentina's claim that the gap between its first requests, in 2002, to restore its trading rights and no action by the United States as of 2012 constituted ‘undue delay’. We rely on simple insights from economic research on asymmetric information problems – moral hazard and adverse selection – to describe the difficulties facing the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the WTO's Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement in dealing with problems like FMD. Such an environment creates disincentives for socially efficient behavior that were clearly realized in this episode. The exporting country has an incentive to hide information on outbreaks and report being disease-free too quickly, and the importing country has no incentive to quickly undertake the costly effort of conducting the necessary inspections to restore the exporter's market access. Finally, we address the Panel Report's treatment of alleged discrimination both across different FMD-impacted countries and across FMD-impacted and non-impacted geographic zones within Argentina, and we touch on the Report's shift in approach regarding the obligation of the United States to take into account the special needs of developing countries such as Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approach – This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.Findings – When the twentieth century began, most observers were under no illusions about the growing economic power of the US. They understood that it would eventually overshadow Britain and the other leading west European nations. There seems to be a similar inevitability about the growing power of China; the likelihood is that, well before the end of this century, it will have superseded the US as the world's strongest economy.Practical implications – Provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world's leading organizations.Originality/value – The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose-This paper aims to critically examine China's exchange rate policy debate and discuss Chinese financial and capital control reform of recent years. Furthermore, using the empirical results based on a regional general equilibrium model, alternative methods are suggested of American concerns about China's role in contributing towards global financial stability and American trade deficits with China. Designlmethodology/approach-Regional general equilibrium input.output model. Findings-Sino-American debate on exchange rate policy is a matter of difference of opinion in sequencing of policies China has adopted to reduce capital account control and make her exchange rate regime more flexible. Using the final demand elasticity of exports it is observed that Chinese expansionary fiscal stimuli do have powerful effects in inducing additional exports for the United States and other Chinese trading partners. Research limitations/implications-The model does not include rest-of-the-world economies. Practical implications:-The results imply viable alternatives to renminbi/dollar appreciation policy in dealing with US-China persistent trade deficit. Originality/value-The paper suggests a new, empirical-based policy recommendation in dealing with the US trade deficit with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Politicians travel extensively abroad, for various reasons. One purpose of external visits is to improve bilateral economic relations. In this paper, I examine the effect of state visits on international trade. Based on a large data set that covers the travel activities of the heads of state of France, Germany and the United States for the period from 1948 to 2003, I find that state and official visits are indeed positively correlated with exports. I first apply a gravity model of trade to control for other trade determinants and find that a visit is typically associated with higher exports by about 8 to 10 per cent; the results are sensitive to the type of visit (as they should). I then use a differences-in-differences specification to deal with the issue of reverse causality. The results show a strong, but short-lived effect of visits on bilateral exports growth, which is driven by repeated visits to a country. Additional support is provided by an exploratory instrumental vari-ables analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore the trade effects of bilateral real exchange rate changes between the 50 US states and China over the period of 2005-2012. The empirical results based on state-level trade flows and state-level relative prices suggest that the long-run real exchange rates elasticity of US exports to China is in the range of [-3.77, -2.85] and that of Chinese exports to the US is in the range of [-0.23, -3.34]. We also find that state-level differences in human capital and financial development are significant determinants of their export performances with respect to China. Based on the most optimistic scenario, our results suggest that the RMB needs to further appreciate against the dollar by at least 1.8 percent a year for 16 years for the US to achieve balanced trade with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the impact and causal relation of outbound Chinese FDI on growth, employment and export performance of 16 selected US States by using Panel data. The contemporaneous panel fixed estimation results shows that the impact of Chinese outbound FDI on the economic growth, employment and export of selected states are insignificant. But the impact of FDI on growth turns positive and significant when interacted with States export to China. Applying heterogeneous panel causality approach on a refined dynamic panel model indicates that Chinese FDI does not cause GDP, exports and employment while the results of reverse causality confirm that US State GDP (market size) cause the inflow of Chinese outbound FDI. The overall impact of Chinese outbound investment, a small portion of the total FDI inflow to the US, varies from conditionally positive to utterly insignificant without any adverse impact on the local economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines why different countries export different qualities of products. While previous studies have attributed quality differences to differences in physical capital endowments, there is a dearth of empirical work focusing on the effect of technology on the quality of exports. Using data on U.S. imports from 58 countries, we analyze the impact of technology and physical capital on quality. Our findings suggest that the export of high quality differentiated goods is associated with research and development (R&D) activities and foreign direct investment (FDI). However, physical capital has no effect on quality in the technology-intensive machinery industry. These results imply that if countries are interested in increasing the quality of the goods they export, they might consider implementing policies that promote R&D activities or attract FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sectoral concentration of exports has been a longstanding matter of concern for policymakers in developing countries. According to economic theory and recent empirical evidence, improved market access through trade agreements is likely to favor export diversification. In this article, it is assessed whether this has been the case for Colombian exports to the United States and whether an FTA with the United States would help Colombia diversify their exports. We find that lower tariffs have indeed favored exports of new products from Colombia. Predictions suggest that the FTA is likely to induce further diversification, but only up to a certain point. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Economics is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper will analyze the international background for the Republic of China's institution of a high-tech export control system; Taipei-Washington talks on the subject; and the establishment, special characieristics, and implementation of the system. The study shows that U.S. pressure, international requirements, increased high-tech imports, and the desire to participate in the international community were direct factors leading to the establishment of the system, and that its future development will be determined by its efficiency, the development of a new international control system, cross-Strait relations, and U. S. attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

`This paper examines the export performance of the four Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs) by modelling their bilateral export flows to three main OECD blocks: the USA, Japan, and the European Community. Our estimated export demand models reveal interesting asymmetries between these three areas of destination which do not emerge from previous aggregate empirical studies of NIE export performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The argument has frequently been made that fixed exchange rate systems allow the transmission of foreign economic disturbances to the domestic economy through a variety of channels. One of the reasons cited for the breakdown of fixed exchange rate regimes in the past has been the unwillingness of countries to 'import' recession from the rest of the world. This paper investigates the insulating properties of fixed exchange-rate systems by examining the transmission of US income disturbances to Canada under the Bretton Woods System during the period 1962 to 1970. The well-known strength of the trade and capital-flow relationship between Canada and the US provides a useful case study of the operation of the transmission mechanism: Disturbances originating in the larger US economy will be transmitted to the Canadian economy to a quantifiable extent if the fixed exchange rate system encourages avenues of transmission.
Two main channels of transmission of foreign economic disturbances under fixed exchange rates are examined. The model contains an aggregate demand channel in which domestic income is affected through the home country's exports, which in turn depend on foreign income. Consider, for example, a fall in foreign income which induces a decline in home exports. Under fixed exchange rates the disturbance is transmitted to the home country as a deterioration in its trade balance due to falling export demand and, consequently as a reduction in domestic income. Under a flexible exchange rate system, the incipient deterioration in the home country's trade balance results in a depreciation of the home currency, offsetting to some degree the income-induced fall in export demand. Thus, traditional economic theory suggests that fixed exchange regimes facilitate the transmission of undesired foreign income shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines whether the decline in US export performance in manufactured goods over 1962-77 is associated with a decline in US competitiveness. This is accomplished using the Constant Market Share (CMS) model which decomposes the growth of US exports of manufactured goods into three components and a competitive residual.
The CMS model is a commonly accepted procedure for accounting for the sources of a country's export growth (other studies using the CMS model include DeVries, 1967; Junz and Rhomberg, 1965; Richardson, 1971a, b). However, it is subject to certain conceptual limitations as well as problems in empirical application which could lead to estimates whose values are sensitive to underlying assumptions and data measurement. Consequently,the CMS estimates derived here are subject to a series of sensitivity tests originally suggested by Richardson (1971b). This analysis provides a firmer basis for judging both the appropriateness of inferences made here about US competitiveness and the overall sensitivity of the CMS procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been considerable discussion in Canada concerning the consequences of the substantial ownership of some segments of Canadian industry by residents of the U.S. This article deals with only a limited area of this topic by presenting some new data on the exports of such companies and by testing a few hypotheses concerning the results. The data in this article are from a questionnaire, based on some preliminary interviews and covering several topics, which was mailed late in 1960 to about 1,500 Canadian firms or enterprises owned by non-residents in the manufacturing, mining, and petroleum industries. The findings of this study generally are within a given context of industrial structure, tariff and exchange rate policies, and other variables. Consideration of the effects of changes in these is beyond the scope of the article, but perhaps enough has been said to indicate some areas worth exploring for those interested in the exports of subsidiary companies and the broader question of the efficiency of Canadian industry.

A transition in international trade has taken place in recent years. The economies of many Western European nations and Japan have been revitalized, due largely to American aid in the immediate postwar period; and these same nations now are energetically competing for markets with U.S.-made goods. The author examines the balance-of-payments problem faced by the United States; the role that increased exports can play in helping to solve these difficulties; and the joint business and government efforts being made by the National Export Expansion Committee of the Department of Commerce and its regional committees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of International Relations / Medzinarodne Vztahy is the property of University of Economics in Bratislava, Faculty of International Relations and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Despite the importance of services in international trade and in the support of global production activities, studies of the political economy of trade liberalization tend to focus on goods trade and the preferences of manufacturing firms and their employees. This article advocates greater consideration of service firms and services trade in political economy models of trade policy. I build my argument around a number of stylized facts about US trade in services. The data suggest that the United States maintains a comparative advantage in services trade, which for standard accounts of trade politics would suggest more homogenous support for trade liberalization within the services sector compared with manufacturing. However, the politics of services liberalization are complicated by the distinct and complex features of international trade in services. Tradable services are delivered internationally through cross-border trade (often electronically), but also through temporary travel and-most importantly for US firms-by a commercial presence, that is, foreign direct investment. These features of services trade imply that governments have an array of policy tools at their disposal with which to protect domestic firms from foreign competition. This article documents the relative importance of various modes of US trade in services, assesses the relationship between policy restrictions and services trade, and discusses how growth in services trade may impact firms' trade policy objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impacts of exchange rate volatilities on real total export and all the subcategories of real total export by standard international trade code (SITC) from 0 to 9 of Malaysia to the United States (US). Exchange rate volatilities are computed by the moving standard deviation with order three [MSD(3)] and estimated by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, more specifically the GARCH(1,1) model. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show insignificant impacts of exchange rate volatilities on real total export in the level but some significant impacts of exchange rate volatilities on the subcategories of real total export in the first differences. There are more cases when exchange rate volatility estimated by the GARCH(1,1) model are found to have significant impact on exports. The significant impacts of exchange rate volatilities are found for some sectors of exports and can be negative or positive. Exporters of Malaysia shall improve their products through innovation and high technology and also to further diversify their exports in order to reduce the impact of exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysts generally believe that a weaker currency primarily benefits a country's manufacturing and primary goods sectors. However, many of these industries-and the elected officials who represent them-frequently oppose legislation designed to combat the dollar's overvaluation relative to the Chinese yuan. I argue that legislators hesitate to take aggressive action on the exchange rate issue because doing so could lead to a disruption of the broader United States-China economic relationship. The threat of an economic conflict emerges as a particularly important consideration in the context of currency bills, where proposed legislation is linked to trade policy and other areas of international economic regulation. A Bayesian statistical analysis of legislative behavior on two recent exchange rate bills in the US Congress provides overall support for my hypotheses. Legislators with ties to business interests that rely heavily on the Chinese economy were more likely to oppose the bills, while the strongest support came from legislators representing import-competing domestic producers. The results highlight the ways that economic interdependence shapes bilateral exchange rate politics in particular, and United States-China interactions more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide evidence that increased political influence, arising from CIA interventions during the Cold War, was used to create a larger foreign market for American products. Following CIA interventions, imports from the US increased dramatically, while total exports to the US were unaffected. The surge in imports was concentrated in industries in which the US had a comparative disadvantage, not a comparative advantage. Our analysis is able to rule out decreased trade costs, changing political ideology, and an increase in US loans and grants as alternative explanations. We provide evidence that the increased imports arose through direct purchases of American products by foreign governments. (JEL D72, F14, F54, N42, N72) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Public Policy is the property of University of Toronto Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows continues to occupy the international finance literature. More recent studies have deviated from the traditional approach of using aggregate trade flows and have employed trade data at commodity level. This study investigates the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of 118 US exporting industries to Thailand and 41 US importing industries from Thailand. We find that exchange rate uncertainty has short-run effects on the trade flows of most industries. In the long-run, the main determinants of the trade flows are the level of economic activity in both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]