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In New Zealand, after the Second World War, the share of manufacturing in GDP rose relative to the share of agriculture. Although the government lacked a clearly articulated industrial policy, it was increasingly drawn into the promotion and support of firms in manufacturing. The Murupara pulp and paper scheme was the most spectacular instance of state intervention in the first two postwar decades. Tasman, the company set up to operate the pulp and paper mill, was a joint venture between the state, a New Zealand construction firm called Fletchers, and British multinationals. Tasman soon became New Zealand's leading exporter of manufactured products. The need to secure the market for Tasman's newsprint exports was one of the main reasons for the negotiation of a partial free trade agreement between New Zealand and Australia in 1965. This article explains the early history of Murupara, and discusses its contribution to industrial development and diversification in New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This paper examines the effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on emerging markets (EMs) export flows. Methods - This paper uses a structural panel vector autoregression modeling approach to capture country interdependencies and the likelihood that EMs' responses are heterogeneous and dynamic. An unbalanced monthly panel data from 2003:01 to 2019:12 is used to estimate impulse responses and variance decompositions not only for the entire panel data but also for each EM. Findings - The results show that global EPU has a persistent and negative effect on exports, while foreign income and the exchange rate increase export volumes in EMs. Given the different responses of EMs to uncertainty shocks, the second-stage regression estimates suggest that greater sectoral export diversification in an EM can potentially reduce the unfavorable impact of global EPU on their export flows. Meanwhile, the higher technology content of exports leads to a multiplication of global EPU transmissions. Implication - These findings advance the literature by highlighting the importance of accounting for the transmission effect of global EPU in EMs by considering country heterogeneity. Originality - This is the sole paper examining the factors that mitigate or amplify GEPU impacts on export flows by estimating second-step ordinary least square equations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic complexity measures the productive knowledge embedded in an economy by analysing the export structure of countries. Although the recent literature suggests that economic complexity might arise as a useful tool to lower output volatility by both diversifying export bundles and increasing the sophistication of exports, the empirical evidence on this issue is rather scarce. We contribute to the existing literature by investigating the effect of economic complexity on output volatility for a large set of developing countries. To this end, we apply a panel vector auto regression (PVAR) methodology, which allows us to capture the dynamic interrelationships between variables. The findings of the paper robust to the alternative specifications reveal that economic complexity affects output volatility negatively. Hence, economic policies aimed at diversifying productive capabilities and export bundles should be one of the major priorities in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior findings suggest that firms reduce investment when they face a higher degree of domestic economic policy uncertainty. In this paper, we provide a new finding that corporate investment of U.S. firms also declines when Chinese economic policy uncertainty rises, after controlling for U.S. economic policy uncertainty. Additional analysis suggests that the result is stronger for firms located in states with larger exports to China, implying the importance of global supply chain link in understanding firms' investment decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to study the experience of the UAE to achieve economic diversification and non-oil export growth for offering public policy recommendations for Azerbaijan based on the following structure. Firstly, it presents the case of the UAE and its success story. Then, it proposes policy recommendations for Azerbaijan. The main finding of this paper is to explain the role of holistic state policies of the UEA in economic success. Along with oil revenues, the economic success in the UAE has been achieved due to economic model chosen by the government of the UAE and public investments in the non-oil sector. It discusses if the same economic policies can bolster non-oil export growth in Azerbaijan. In conclusion, the paper summarizes the main findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Macroeconomic stability is one of the important factors influencing the growth and development of national economies in today's modern global economy. Economic policy should create conditions for macroeconomic stability and economic growth based on increased investment, exports, savings, productivity, and competitiveness, while reducing macroeconomic imbalances, especially the fiscal deficit, inflation, and the current account deficit. In order to achieve macroeconomic stability, as well as sustainable economic growth, it is important to pursue a rational economic policy and carry out accelerated structural reforms. The main objective of the paper is to analyze the impact of key indicators, i.e., export and import of goods and services and FDI on economic growth of the Western Balkans countries. Such an analysis is important to show the state of the economy and predict its stability. The research focuses on the countries of the Western Balkans, while the analysis uses secondary data from the UNCTAD database for the period 2011-2020. The research results indicate that Serbia is progressing much faster than other countries of the Western Balkans. In the coming period, a growth trend can be expected in all Western Balkan countries, which will result in better economic development and increasing openness to new investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to derive the time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Nigerian cocoa sector against Nigeria's share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world merchandise exports (REC_WM) from 1995 to 2018. By concentrating on different factors such as demand and supply capacity, price factors and exchange rate, the authors examine the determinants of REC. Design/methodology/approach: The authors calculated three different REC indexes. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness index for comparative advantage calculation and avoiding the possible bias. The determinants of REC for Nigerian cocoa were captured using the short-run regression (SRR) model. Findings: The study showed that Nigeria's cocoa exports are still competitive despite experiencing some declining stages. Based on the SRR model, higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices significantly reduced the REC of cocoa. Further, the African Growth Opportunity Act agreement adversely affected the REC of cocoa. Originality/value: This study provides a foundation for future research and enhances the literature on agricultural trade. This research makes a few contributions both from a scientific and a policy perspective. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Nigerian cocoa industry. Second, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world's largest cocoa exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and local policy strategies. Third, the latest 24-year data sets were covered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Manufacturing for export is gradually becoming the main pillar of economic growth in many developing countries, including Vietnam. Since 1986, Vietnam has adopted an open economic policy and promoted trade activities. Therefore, Vietnam's exports have significantly increased and contributed to economic development. The benefits of exports are undeniable, but Vietnam also faces serious environmental problems caused by these activities. This paper analyzes the impact of Vietnam's export activities on economics and the environment through comparison between carbon emissions and value-added embodied in exports using an input–output model, then provides some recommendations to adjust Vietnam's export strategy in the future. The main findings indicate that carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) embodied in exports have increased from 2006 to 2015. The carbon intensity of exports increases, while the value-added intensity decreases. As compared with production for the domestic market, production for domestic demand creates faster value-added and slower carbon emissions than production for exports. This study suggests that Vietnam should reform its export structure alongside technological improvements and other policy adjustments to curb Vietnam's growing CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 2000s German net exports have grown persistently, generating huge current account surpluses. These surpluses have added to current account imbalances within and outside the European Monetary Union (EMU). Contributing to the economic policy debate of whether it is foreign demand or 'world-beating' price competitiveness driving German exports, the paper investigates econometrically the determinants of German intra- and extra-EMU exports for 1995 to 2014. The long-term relationship between exports, foreign activity and the real effective exchange rate is estimated in an error correction framework. The results show that German exports are sensitive to foreign activity. Germany has benefited from growth of trading partners and high income elasticities of demand for exports, indicating non-price competitiveness. With regard to exchange rate effects, we do not detect a significant impact of the real exchange rate on intra-EMU exports. However, our estimations provide a stable relationship between the real exchange rate and extra-EMU exports. We calculate that the real exchange rate explains 12% to 17% of export growth. Moreover, taking into account quantity and price effects caused by changes in the real exchange rate, we observe contrary effects on real and nominal exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Research Papers of the Wroclaw University of Economics / Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wroclawiu is the property of Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny we Wroclawiu and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ekonomika is the property of Society of Economists 'Ekonomika' and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The present paper builds on the published literature on agricultural policy analysis under costly and imperfect enforcement by introducing enforcement costs and misrepresentation into the economic analysis of export subsidies. Specifically, the present paper examines the economic causes of cheating on export subsidies and the consequences of enforcement costs and misrepresentation for the welfare effects and the transfer efficiency of this policy instrument. Policy design and implementation is modelled as a sequential game between a government that designs and enforces the policy and the recipients of the payments. Two alternative policy implementation scenarios are considered. In the first scenario, export subsidies are paid to private trading firms while in the second scenario subsidies are paid directly to the producers of the subsidised commodity. Analytical results show that the introduction of enforcement costs and cheating changes the welfare effects of export subsidies and their efficiency in redistributing income to producers. The analysis also shows that, contrary to what is traditionally believed, the incidence of export subsidies depends on the group that is subsidised to export the surplus quantity – the way the policy is implemented. The results provide additional support for the contention that the economic consequences of cheating are highly policy-specific. Finally, the analysis reveals that when the government faces restrictions on either the volume or the value of export subsidies, cheating reduces the distortionary effects of the policy on international markets. This is true irrespective of whether subsidies are paid to trading firms or to producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intention of this paper is to explore the internationalization efforts of German pork producers towards Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) with a special focus on recent dynamics, market development strategies and policy conditions. The added-value potentials offered by CEE countries have become increasingly lucrative for the German pork industry, particularly as the domestic market currently shows a certain degree of saturation in terms of consumption. The results of this study which is mainly based on qualitative interviews with selected pork producers from North-West Germany reveal that transnational pork production networks between Germany and CEE are shaped by a high degree of fragility and discontinuity. This is reflected not only by the fluctuating development of foreign trade in piglets, live hogs and pork products, but also by the uncertainty and hesitancy of the interviewed pork producers with regard to business operations in CEE markets. It will be shown that the policy conditions on the national level still have a clear impact on internationalization processes in the pork industry. The paper further illustrates that the configuration of transnational pork production networks can be explained, in part, by insights from the global production networks (GPN) and the agri-food geographies literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an alternative growth approach in line with Thirlwall's model in order to predict economic growth in Greece taking into account internal and external imbalances caused by public deficit/debt and lack of trade competitiveness. lt is shown that the simple Thirlwall's Law (given by the product of the ratio of the income elasticities of demand for exports and imports, and the growth of foreign demand) over-predicts real growth in Greece while the more complete extended model, makes a closer prediction which is consistent with the high deficit/debt and current account deficit experienced in this country. The simulation approach shows that the most efficient policy to attain higher growth is to reduce external imbalances while policies to reduce internal imbalances are low growth enhancing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to simultaneously analyse the complex relationships between bilateral maritime connectivity, bilateral trade and domestic production as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. This is achieved by applying non-recursive models and Path Analysis (PA). The top ten best maritime connected countries and their 155 trading partners are selected for the analysis. The components of maritime connectivity, maritime distance, and gravity variables are selected as instrumental variables to analyse the reciprocal relationship between export/import of ten countries and the GDP per capita of their 155 trading partners. The results confirm the reciprocal relationship between export values (that are the import values of trading partners) and GDP per capita, whereas a reciprocal relationship between import values (that are the export values of trading partners) and GDP per capita does not exist. The results also confirm the complexity of the relationships between maritime connectivity, trade and economic growth and that, compared to components of maritime connectivity, none of the gravity variables have a positive impact on bilateral trade. The results suggest that economic policy and trade policy at the global, regional, and national level should recognize the need for, and foster, better maritime connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses three aspects of the export supply response to structural adjustment programmes supported by the World Bank. First, have programmes improved programme countries' export performance relative to non-programme countries? Second, have programmes contributed to re-orientation of production and build up of supply capacity? Third, have programmes resulted in greater export diversification? These questions are addressed by employing both traditional and less common techniques in the context of the ‘before–after’, ‘with–without’ and an original extended version of the ‘modified control group’ approaches. The empirical findings in this paper suggest that, although structural adjustment programmes have the expected effects in the short to medium run, they have failed to generate an appropriate supply response which could underpin lasting export expansion and diversification. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Lecturas de Economia is the property of Universidad de Antioquia, Facultad de Ciencias Economicas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

A large body of literature argues that the characteristics of exports matter for economic growth and development because some goods trigger positive externalities or are subject to increasing returns. Thus, for policy purposes, it is important to know whether a country’s export basket enjoys these productive opportunities. They have been associated with technological content of exports. However, measuring them is not easy. Previous methodologies to account for exports’ technological content used either R&D data or trade data. The former is used to account for knowledge-intensive activities during the production phase and the latter to identify levels of ‘sophistication’ of exports based on exporting countries’ characteristics. Building on these contributions, this paper combines industry-based and product-based indicators to circumvent some of the shortcomings of the received literature, including the product-industry controversy (i.e. are the actual activities during the production process or the product characteristics what better accounts exports’ technological content?). We use data from Uruguay on direct and indirect R&D spending from public and private sources and also trade data to build the sophistication index corrected by quality. We contrast our findings with existing methodologies to highlight our contribution. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper aims to analyze peculiarities of balancing the trade in small and open economies and to identify main external and internal influences that shape the structure and volumes of international trade. The case of the three Baltic States was selected. Overall, 62 economic indicators that reflect the situations inside countries, also situation in main trading partners' countries were involved in the research. Multidimensional data analysis methods were applied to get most information from the data. This research supports the idea that external factors tend to influence the intensity of international trade rather than higher surplus or lower deficit of international trade in small and open economies, as they affect both imports and exports in highly common way. Internal factors and foreign direct investments seem to be those that notably drive structural changes for balancing the international trade. From economic policy perspective it is a discussion where to put more emphasis - on expanding linkages with foreign countries or on investing in innovative activities and quality of resources for stronger trading positions in global markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs a two-country trade model to examine the optimal policies relating to the export of final and intermediate products under Cournot as well as Bertrand competition when firms engage in symbiotic production internationally. The paper shows that given linear demand for the final product, the optimal export policies are to tax the exports of both the final and intermediate goods under symbiotic production, regardless of whether firms engage in Cournot or Bertrand competition in the final good market, which is contrary to the conventional wisdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Bilateral trade between Egypt and China has expanded substantially in recent years. Few studies however have focused on the understanding of this trade relationship. The purpose of this paper is to fill a void in the literature by examining and understanding the two countries' trade pattern. Design/methodology/approach – In order to achieve the objectives of the paper, and in the light of the pool of literature and availability of data, the authors relied on qualitative methods to analyze the composition of trade between Egypt and China. In addition, the authors employed trade intensity index, intra-industry trade index, and examined the trade complementarity to capture the dynamics and perspectives of bilateral trade between the two countries. Findings – Results show low values in Egypt's trade intensity index, implying that Egyptian trade with China is less than it should be. The low values of the intra-industry trade index suggest smaller trade between the two countries' firms in the same industry. The study clearly shows that there are few areas where there is an overlap in the two countries' comparative advantage. The trade complementarity analysis tends to suggest that the complementarity for China to export to Egypt is increasing, while that for Egypt to export to China is declining. Originality/value – Given the lack of research that examines and compares trade between the two countries, the paper provides an in-depth understanding of the patterns of trade between them and the driving forces behind such dynamics, which is pertinent to best capture the opportunities presented by the Chinese market. Also, the findings can be used to draw policy implications for promoting future trade and cooperation between Egypt and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper conducts a disaggregate analysis of high technology trade to determine which high technology goods, if any, developed countries export in the presence of stronger developing country patent rights. One argument for implementing strong patent rights in developing countries is that doing so will attract high technology exports from industrialized countries, which should consequently lead to economic growth. However, the impact of patent rights on high technology exports is not identical across all industries. This paper postulates that the role of developing country patent rights in increasing high technology imports depends on the production and adaptation costs of foreign innovating firms, and the usefulness of the high technology good in developing country production processes. When the cost of adapting a foreign innovation for use in developing countries is relatively low, and when the innovation is highly useful in the domestic production processes of developing countries, strengthening patent protection has little impact on attracting foreign innovations. However, when the cost of adapting the good for use in developing countries is relatively high, patent protection can be used as a policy tool to limit competition, raise the price received by innovating firms and, ultimately, attract foreign high technology goods from abroad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the beginning of the new millennium, the productivity differences among different enterprises within the industry, namely the heterogeneity of enterprises, have been incorporated into the general equilibrium trade model. At the same time, it brings new focus to trade theory: By analyzing the characteristics of individual enterprises, it analyzes the choice of organizational structure of individual enterprises. Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and international trade are the two most important international economic activities nowadays. The development of OFDI will have certain impact on export trade. The relationship between OFDI and export trade is different due to the specific national conditions of different countries. Against this background, we study the impact of China's expanding OFDI on export trade. We should make better use of OFDI to promote the development of China's export trade and improve the export-oriented economic mode that relies solely on exports to expand the international market. It not only has theoretical value, but also has practical guiding significance for the formulation of China's "going out" economic and trade policy. This study introduces heterogeneity into the international expansion behavior model of Chinese enterprises in the context of global value chain specialization. Taking the position of Chinese enterprises in the value chain as the location dimension, we have integrated and expanded a new concept of enterprise advantage based on the value chain status from the research category of international trade theory. In this paper, we introduce the behavior of competitors into the dimension of enterprise decision space and construct an endogenous dynamic equilibrium model of Chinese enterprises' export trade and OFDI. The purpose is to provide theoretical explanations and practical guidance for Chinese enterprises' export trade and endogenous optimization decision making in the process of deepening the division of labor in the global value chain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the long relationship between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries aimed at encouraging their exports while stimulating growth and investment, the ACP states still face difficulties in integrating into the world economy. This paper examines the non-least developed ACP countries preferential trade with the EU using data on EU member states’ imports eligible for preferences under the Cotonou agreement for the period 2001 at the 8-digit level. Using data on tariffs and preferential quota applicable on each 8-digit product for the year 2001 ad-valorem tariff rates were calculated. The paper also investigates the existence of a threshold in the offered duty reduction under which traders have no incentives to ask for preferences since the costs of obtaining these exceeds their benefits. Our results showed that the higher the value of preferences offered, the higher the probability that preferences are requested. Using endogenous threshold estimation techniques we also provided evidence that there exists a minimum value of preferences needed for traders to request preferences. More specifically, if the difference between preferential and third country tariff rates are lower than 4 per cent, there are no incentives for traders to request preferences since the costs of obtaining the preferences are expected to be higher than the benefits from obtaining the preferences. Our results additionally indicate that country specificities also play an important role in the decision whether requesting preferences or not and how much to import. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent policy reform in LDCs has centred on liberalizing markets and removing state intervention. This is of great importance for exporters in these nations as they are becoming exposed to greater price risk. Given the prominent role played by primary commodities in the exports of LDCs it is of interest to see how producers in these markets respond to the new, more uncertain environment. Intervention is no longer feasible or desirable and thus market based measures and risk-management instruments are becoming more popular as a means of reducing risk. This paper discusses one such measure—futures markets—in the light of the possibility of their use in LDCs and explores some of the key issues surrounding the question of whether LDCs should establish new exchanges domestically or simply use existing (often DME) exchanges. To illustrate the effectiveness of futures markets, the paper provides a brief summary of recent attempts by producer nations to employ hedging to minimize price risk. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses India's import sourcing over the period 1960-85 in a preference-consistent, utility-maximizing framework using the 'almost ideal demand system'. Assuming separability between exports, imports and domestic production, the paper estimates unrestricted, homogeneity and symmetry-constrained versions of this demand system on Indian import data, and tests for the empirical validity of the restrictions. The results are analysed and some implications for commercial policy changes examined. The empirical evidence of this exercise seems to point to the need for a wider concept of 'rationality' than has been used in the recent literature, particularly when estimating preference-consistent import-export demand functions of a developing mixed economy with central planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an account of the origin, contents and apparent impact of the Nigerian structural adjustment programme of 1986-90. The programme arose from pressure by Nigeria's external creditors to reach an accommodation with the Bank and the Fund, but once the decision to undertake such a programme had been taken it became largely 'home-grown' and contains a number of heterodox elements, including a ban on imported foodstuffs. Other major elements are a shift to a market-determined exchange rate, the winding-up of the six government commodity marketing boards and the gradual elimination of administrative controls on overseas trade. The design of the programme takes note of a number of recent theoretical findings, including the significance of the intermediate import constraint and the presence of crowding-in effects of public expenditure on private investment in a number of African countries, any assessment of the programme's impact is of necessity preliminary; but, at the least, it has made possible a reduction in the burden of debt service, and the growth rate of GDP and exports, in particular export crops such as cocoa and rubber, have been much higher in the post-than in the pre-structural adjustment period; but inflation has worsened, real wages have fallen, and diversification of exports has not occurred. The tentative verdict is that the programme tried to achieve too much too soon, underestimated the resultant social costs, and placed too much reliance and changes in price incentives as a means of bringing about the necessary restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper has been to provide a formal framework suitable for a macroeconomics analysis of oil-exporting economies with foreign exchange controls. It should be emphasized that, while the model presented in this paper captures some important features of reality, there are many factors that have not been taken into account. For example, no allowance has been made for supply-side bottlenecks. By adopting a Keynesian framework it is implicitly assumed that the non-oil output is in elastic supply, either at a constant money wage rate or at a constant real wage rate, as the case may be. Therefore, without further modifications our analysis will not be applicable to circumstances where the rise in oil revenues is far in excess of the country's absorptive capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the financial crisis of 2007-2009 and of the Covid pandemic, the international trade was significantly hit in terms of export flows. The whole macroeconomic context was negatively impacted during those last crises. In this paper we aimed to analyse the correlations between the trends of macroeconomic variables during the last decade and the exports of the Central and Eastern European countries. The selected macroeconomic variables are those that are significantly related to the foreign trade, namely GDP growth, inflation, public debt, public deficit, interest rate and labour productivity. These variables display a high correlation with the foreign trade expressed as exports and imports. But the correlations are not the same for all CEE countries. During crises periods, these correlations often change and each country of this CEE region reacts differently to specific external shocks. Trade was significantly and negatively impacted by the last financial crisis and by Covid pandemic crisis, while economic growth rates, inflation rates, labour productivity public finances and interest rates have different trends in the CEE region according to specific conditions of each country and the measures adopted by the national authorities in time of crises. Based on the correlations between the trends of the macroeconomic variables and the developments of exports in this area, we can design some important policy recommendations for the economic policy which needs to be implemented in those countries to overcome these difficulties generated by the increasing commercial deficits during the last decade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Kaldor's 1970 paper 'The Case for Regional Policies' was republished in the 60th anniversary volume of the Scottish Journal of Political Economy. This article reflects on the model after more than 40 years, and argues that although it has been criticized for its deterministic nature, it has lost none of its relevance. It predates the ideas of so-called 'new' growth theory, and the new economic geography of Krugman, and provides at least a partial explanation of why growth rates and levels of per capita income between regions and between countries can continue to persist and even widen in contrast to the predictions of orthodox equilibrium theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent crisis in some euro area countries is intensively fueling the political and economic policy debate about the effectiveness of the applied adjustment programs. This paper aims to contribute to explaining why the results of these programs could be different across countries, flagging the crucial role of exports. In view of recent economic literature about substitution between domestic and foreign sales, helping exports when domestic demand is adjusting, this paper uses panel data techniques to assess the role of the export structure in explaining this substitution effect in the euro area countries. Building a novel indicator for product concentration, the results suggest that domestic demand developments are more relevant to explaining exports in countries with a lower product concentration index (that is, more diversified exports). This contributes to explain why euro area countries under stress registered different economic performance, in particular the clearly less favorable behavior of Greece, where exports structure is concentrated more strongly in some goods and services than in other euro area countries. With different export behavior the final evaluation of the Greek adjustment would be certainly different. These results suggest that export structure should be taken into consideration when designing or evaluating this type of adjustment programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is the culmination of a multi-country, multi-method investigation into the export effects of Aid for Trade (AfT). Building on previous single-donor statistical studies of AfT, this paper conducts a statistical study of 19 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) AfT donors and then examines the delivery and implementation of AfT in four recipient countries – Indonesia, the Philippines, Timor-Leste and Vietnam – from four donor countries – Germany, Japan, Norway and the US. The paper finds considerable variation in the export effects of the AfT programs, ranging from programs with no impact on recipient country exports to programs that are positively correlated with recipient country exports to the donor country and/or the rest of the world. Taking a closer look at the AfT programs of Germany, Japan, Norway and the US suggests that differences in program design and implementation may account for differences in AfT export effects. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper analyzes the economic effects of content-based import tariffs China imposed on imported auto parts. While China’s policy penalized any firm that assembled cars with less than 60% Chinese content, the policy was most likely to affect foreign-affiliated firms who were more likely to exceed the content ceiling. To assess whether foreign-affiliated firms differentially changed their input sourcing this paper uses Chinese product trade data for 1997–2009 which report trade transactions by firm ownership type. Compared with import transactions for other firms, the data show that foreign-affiliated firms appear to have mitigated the effects of the policy by reducing import transaction prices, and by reducing their import quantities on the extensive margin. While China’s content-based auto import trade policy was repealed in 2009 after China lost its dispute case at the WTO, the extraordinary growth in China’s global export of auto parts since 2005 suggests that China’s short term trade policy may have contributed to enduring effects in global supply chains. (JEL codes: F1 and F2) [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Over the last decade, the internal and external macroeconomic imbalances in China have risen to unprecedented levels. In 2008, China's national savings rate soared to over 53 percent of its GDP, whereas its current account surplus exceeded 9 percent of GDP. This paper presents a unified framework for understanding the structural causes of these imbalances. I argue that the imbalances are attributable to a set of policies and institutions embedded in the economy. I propose a unified framework for understanding the joint causes of the high savings rate and external imbalances in China. My explanations first focus on an array of factors that encouraged saving across the corporate, government, and household sectors, such as policies that affected sectoral income distribution, along with factors like incomplete social welfare reforms, and population control policies. I then turn to policies that limited investment in China, thus preventing the high savings from being used domestically. Finally, I will examine how trade policies, such as export tax rebates, special economic zones, and exchange rate policies, strongly promote exports. Moreover, the accession of China to the World Trade Organization has dramatically amplified the effects of these structural distortions. In conclusion, I recommend some policy reforms for rebalancing the Chinese economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates whether exports affect the incidence of HIV in Africa. This relationship has implications for HIV prevention policy as well as for the consequences of trade increases in Africa. I estimate this impact using two sources of data on HIV incidence, one generated based on UNAIDS estimates and the other based on observed HIV mortality. These data are combined with data on export value and volume. I find a fairly consistent positive relationship between exports and new HIV infections: doubling exports leads to a 10%-70% increase in new HIV infections. Consistent with theory, this relationship is larger in areas with higher baseline HIV prevalence. I interpret the result as suggesting that increased exports increase the movement of people (trucking), which increases sexual contacts. Consistent with this interpretation, the effect is larger for export growth than for income growth per se and is larger in areas with more extensive road networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Employment creation through export-oriented manufacturing has been at the centre of Kenya's economic policy since the early 1990s when the country embarked on intense trade liberalization. Data limitations not withstanding, this paper sought to investigate female employment outcomes in Kenya's manufacturing sector in the wake of trade liberalization, largely based on manufacturing sector surveys undertaken in the early 1990s and recently in 2003. Overall, female's share in formal sector employment constitute only slightly less than a third of total formal sector employment. Data from the 2003 manufacturing survey indicate that female workers constituted only about 14% of the total regular workers in the manufacturing sector. On average, exporting firms were found to be relatively more female-labour intensive than non-exporting firms. However, there was a slight decline in the proportion of female workers between 1995 and 2003, from 15.2 percent to 13.5 percent. Female employment in the export-oriented firms is still comparatively low in relation to export-oriented economies of South East Asia. Moreover, females employed in the manufacturing sector are largely low skilled and, earned significantly less than their male counterparts. To harvest full benefits of export-orientation and employment growth, there is need for breakaway from the traditional gender based division of labour, which leads to concentration of women in informal or at best, low skilled oriented sectors. Whereas manufacturing sector is at the centre of Kenya's vision of industrialization, women are unlikely to proportionately benefit, given the gender disparities in employment, skill levels and earnings. Thus, employment promotion policies need not be gender-blind. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the crisis era, while considerable attention was given to Chinese management of its currency’s exchange rate with the US dollar, the frequent alteration of rebates on value-added taxes (VAT) paid by exporters on the inputs they have imported has been overlooked. In this paper the relevant Chinese policy changes are documented and evidence presented to gauge the relative importance of what turns out to be a systematic form of export management. Given the relatively high shares of imported content used in Chinese exports and the low profit margins of Chinese exporters, an increase in the VAT rebate of a single per cent is estimated to increase the profitability of beneficiary exporters by 12 per cent for the typical Chinese exporter, and by 18 per cent for those Chinese exporters operating in export processing zones. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The ratio of trade (exports plus imports) to GDP is often used to gauge the orientation of a country's economic activity to the world market; but GDP measures value added, whereas trade is measured as gross value and double-counts imported inputs embodied in exports. High trade/GDP ratios can thus mislead policymakers, especially when low domestic-content (DC) assembly production displaces high DC traditional exports, as in Mexico and the Caribbean in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper proposes a better measure of openness, which is the ratio of value added destined for exports (VADE) to GDP. It outlines methods for making both rough and more precise estimates of VADE, and presents illustrative results for China, the Dominican Republic and Mexico. In all of these cases VADE/GDP is no more than one-third, and probably closer to one-quarter, of trade/GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the effect of lobbying by a labor union and its parent firm on the argument for strategic export policy in a third market-unionized duopoly. The lobbying-induced export policy frequently deteriorates domestic welfare as compared with free trade. It is true that the politically-determined export policy can improve domestic welfare if the union's bargaining power is strong and the domestic government's responsiveness to political contributions is weak. However, even if the conditions are met, implementing the lobbying-induced export policy will not enhance domestic welfare more than improving labor–management relations. Moreover, the improvement of their relations will be hampered by the opportunity of their lobbying. These results indicate that strategic export policy toward a unionized duopoly should be restrained in light of political economy. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The paper analyses the link between financial constraints and firm export behaviour. Our main finding is that firms enjoying better financial health are more likely to become exporters. The result contrasts with the previous empirical literature which found evidence that export participation improves firm financial health, but not that export starters display any ex ante financial advantage. On the contrary, we find that financial constraints act as a barrier to export participation. Better access to external financial resources increases the probability to start exporting and also shortens the time before firms decide to serve foreign customers. This finding has important policy implications as it suggests that, in the presence of financial market imperfections, public intervention can be called for to help efficient but financially constrained firms to overcome the sunk entry costs into export markets and expand their activities abroad. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between firm heterogeneity and a firm’s decision to export, using the annual survey of Thai manufacturing firms from 2001 to 2004. A significant contribution of this paper is that we are, for the first time, able to break down FDI by country of origin to observe whether the behaviour of MNEs differs by region of origin. We find that sunk entry costs and firm characteristics are important factors in explaining a firm’s decision to export. Another important determinant is the ownership structure of the firm, with foreign-owned firms having a higher probability of exporting than domestically owned firms, although this differs across country of ownership with potentially important policy implications. Export platform FDI is used to explain the behaviour of foreign firms that invest in Thailand. Using three measures of total factor productivity, we also find that highly productive firms self-select into the export market. The implication for governments of developing countries is the need to think carefully about how and to whom they target their inward FDI policies as a means of growth. The heterogeneous behaviour of multinationals from different nations means that policies targeting specific regions or countries may be preferable to general tax concessions or the implementation of special economic zones that are open to all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a new longitudinal dataset of more than 15,000 manufacturing firms to analyse the heterogeneous responses of firms to foreign direct investment in China. Domestic firms operating in sectors where foreign firms are also active have higher total factor productivity. However, the magnitude of such horizontal spillovers depends on the structure and origin of foreign ownership, the export status of firms and the characteristics of the special economic zones firms are operating in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]