Search

This paper aims to provide an overview of the position of the developing countries in the international trade system and discussion about perspectives of their trade development. The main hypothesis of the paper is that developing countries as a group have made a breakthrough in the world trade in the past two decades, but genuine improvement has been made and enjoyed by several large developing countries, primarily China. The paper elaborates mostly by use of methods of analysis and synthesis, based on the extensive processing of trade data, as well as relevant literature. In this context, the paper provides evidence about trade liberalisation of the developing countries since 1980s to the present time, intense export growth of the developing countries over the period, as well as change of the trade structure of the developing countries with developed countries, evident through rising share of the medium and high skills and technology based products. In purpose of provision of more realistic assessment of the position of the developing countries in the international trade system, special attention has been put on China's trade performances, given the rapid increase of China's share in the world trade from less than 1 per cent in 1980 to over 10 per cent in 2011. The major findings of the paper confirm that improvement of the overall position of the developing countries in the international trade system has mainly resulted from the improvement of the trade position of several countries, primarily China. The paper also provides overview on WTO simulations about international trade prospects up to 2035, which confirm further dependence on the trade position of the developing countries as a group from China's trade accomplishments. In this perspective, the paper argues that there is a need for differentiated treatment and provision of extra flexibilities for the other developing countries in purpose of achieving as genuine improvement in their trade position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand. Bilateral trade between China and Latin America has grown very quickly in the past decade. As a consequence, economic relationships with Latin America intensified tremendously, as growing demand for resources drove China into relatively unexplored frontiers.Design/methodology/approach The Index measures the relative exposure of Latin American exporters to shifts in demand from China and is scaled from 0 to 1 (the higher the score, the more exposed an exporter is to disruptions of trade with China). The authors undertook the analysis using six-digit trade figures from the United Nations COMTRADE database (Harmonized System 2007 nomenclature) to ensure granularity and consistency and contrasted their results across two points in time, 2008 and 2014. The analysis was very comprehensive, covering the products that accounted for 80 per cent or more of all exports to China in 2014, for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.Findings According to our estimates, dependency on China increased overboard across Latin America for all countries and all sectors between 2008 and 2014. Absolute dependency levels were highest in Costa Rica, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, Peru, Chile, Guyana and Argentina. Of these, the largest exporters to China, namely, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, featured high dependencies concentrated around just four commodities: soy in the form of soybeans and soybean oil; crude oil; copper in the form of copper ore, copper cathodes and unrefined copper; and iron ore. These four commodities accounted for 80 per cent of the regions’ total exports to China.Originality/value This is one of few studies that look into Latin America’s commodity export dependency on China at such granular level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign trade plays a very significant role in the economic, social, political and cultural life of nations. Foreign trade is the way of economic development for every country especially for developing countries. Regional cooperation philosophy brought these efforts jointly by a group of countries of particular regions. All countries including India started to walk on the same path for the development of all corners in a cohesive and cooperative manner and India shook its hand for such cooperation with various trade blocs like ASEAN. This paper attempts to portray the picture of such cooperation and relationsof India with ASEAN countries for trade development. RESEARCH TYPE AND METHODOLOGY: The manuscript of the study is empirical in nature. In this paper exploratory research techniques have been used. For the purpose of the study, Secondary Sources of data have been collected through various published literature; Journal Articles, Newspapers, Books and Websites etc. The major sources of secondary data have been the online database of Ministry of Commerce and other publications of Government of India as various issues of Handbook of Indian Statistics, ASEAN Statistical Year Book and Economic Survey. Data have been properly classified and statistically analyzed with the appropriate tools such as Mean, Percentage Change, Correlation, Compound Annual Growth Rate and Time Series Analysis etc. RESEARCH FINDINGS AND INSIGHT: The study reveals that India's trade with ASEAN has prominent place. India's exports and imports have increased smoothly with varying rates of growth and the future estimation about the trade explains that India needs to concentrate more on expansion of exports especially with newly added nations of ASEAN because India's largest trade destinations are few among the founder member states of ASEAN under the period of study. IMPLICATION: The findings of the study suggested that India has to be more attentive and concerned on the trade expansion with ASEAN countries and specifically with newly added ASEAN countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances have been a great support to Pacific island countries (PICs). Aside from providing additions to domestic savings and, hence, real resources, they have been one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings. In the context of falling exports and limited options to diversify their exports, inward remittances have assumed greater importance. This paper examines the nexus between growth and remittances in Samoa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize; on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization, for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to quantify the potential gains in trade performance from the implementation of trade facilitation reform. The study applies a gravity model augmented with trade facilitation, regulatory quality and infrastructure indicators to assess the impact of trade facilitation and other trade-related constraints on export performance. Quantitatively, our results suggest that a 10 per cent improvement in trade facilitation would yield an increase in exports of about 5 per cent. Identical percentage improvements in the regulatory environment and in the quality of infrastructure provision would result in increases of 9–11 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively. The results confirm that while trade facilitation can contribute to improved export performance, improvements in the quality of the regulatory environment and the basic transport and communications infrastructure are equally or more important, in facilitating export growth. The conclusion is that trade facilitation alone is unlikely to result in a significant improvement in export performance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with status-seeking agents. We show that the introduction of status-seeking behavior brings about new properties in equilibrium dynamics. While there exists a continuum of steady states in the standard dynamic models, the present framework demonstrates that, under some conditions, there uniquely exists an incompletely specialized steady state, which is locally saddle-point stable. Therefore, catching-up and overtaking phenomena seen in economic development can be explained, and comparative statics analysis also is made possible. Our comparative statics analysis illustrates, for example, that trade pattern is determined in the Heckscher–Ohlin manner; the patient country acts just like a capital abundant one to export the capital-intensive good. Furthermore, as distinct from the existing literature, the present study shows that the existence of an incompletely specialized steady state can be ensured even if the two countries conduct different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Estudios Económicos is the property of El Colegio de Mexico AC and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The growth trajectory of the economic development of a country depends to a large extent upon the success of its foreign trade policy. Having a favorable or minimize the unfavorable trade balance is a daunting task for the Indian economy which at present is suffering from negative trade balance. However, this objective of a country's foreign trade policy can be achieved only by undertaking suitable efforts to accelerate the volume of exports while shrinking the unnecessary imports to the maximum possible extent. This study is of immense use for policy planners to get a trade snapshot of India for identifying the role of export and import growth in generating the favorable status of India's trade balance. The common financial theory of portfolio diversification for reducing risk also holds true in context of foreign trade portfolio and this study will prove extremely valuable for economists to examine whether or not the structure of India's foreign trade portfolio is diversified enough to minimize the associated risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper the Turkish export-led growth hypothesis is examined from the trade liberalisation process initiated in 1980. The paper has employed Toda and Yamamoto (1995) procedure for testing for Granger non-causality in the augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) methodology to analyze the dynamic relationship between export growth and economic growth in Turkey using quarterly data from 1989 to 2006. The empirical results support the export-led growth hypothesis for Turkey and that Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to test the export-led growth hypothesis for South Asia, a diverse region consisting of one large country, India, surrounded by a number of medium and small countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and Maldives. Design/methodology/approach - To test this, the study employs cointegration and error-correction modelling, using data from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF. Findings - The study produces fairly mixed results, and does not find any conclusive evidence in favour of export-led growth. While India, Maldives and Nepal exhibit export-led growth, Bangladesh and Bhutan show the opposite result of growth-led exports. In Pakistan and Sri Lanka no causality in either direction was found. The mixed nature of the results is further confirmed by taking a common time period since 1980. Practical implications - South Asia is one of the poorest regions of the world; so success or otherwise of export-led growth is of great interest for policy purposes. For example, the finding of export-led growth for the largest economy of the region, India, is particularly heartening as, by opening up its markets further to the other countries of the region, it can fuel growth in the entire region. Originality/value - This study tries to fill an important gap in the literature as it is the first comprehensive study of the region as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to analyse the relationship between exports, investments and economic development in two pre-accession countries of the European Union, Bulgaria and Romania. For investigation of this relationship a multivariate autoregressive VAR model is used. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth for the two countries. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM) indicated that there is a 'strong Granger causal' relation between economic growth and exports as well as between investments and exports for the two countries. In addition, economic development and capital accumulation in an economy seem to have just as much of an influence on exports as exports have on capital accumulation and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most successful developing economies in exporting finished consumer goods have been Hong Kong, Taiwan (China), and the Republic of Korea. These three economies, exported slightly over half of the manufactured goods shipped from developing economies to OECD countries. They enjoyed a larger share of the market for sixteen categories of consumer goods-close to 72 percent. Other Asian countries supplied another 19 percent, while 7 percent came from Latin America and the Caribbean. The U.S. is the leading market for these same sixteen categories, buying 46 percent, compared to 14 percent shipped to Germany, 8.5 percent to the Great Britain, 36 percent to the European Community as a whole in 1980. Developing economy firms have succeeded remarkably in linking up their production with the needs and fast-changing demands of stores and customers thousands of miles away. In research at the World Bank, through interviews and consultant papers, the institutional arrangements and the marketing aspects of this trade are explored to learn how this linking is achieved. This paper sketches some of the findings of the marketing aspects of this trade.

This paper examines the interrelations between internal and external policies and the role of foreign assistance in the development experience of the 1960-1970 period. Almost all countries that had not already achieved growth rates of more than five percent in the 195Os planned for accelerated growth in the 196Os. The main difference is in the growth of manufactured exports and services, which have grown at 15 percent compared to the anticipated rate of six percent. Total exports for the sample group have therefore grown at 5.9 percent compared to the projected rate of 5,1 percent. In general, successful development has led to increased supplies of external capital--usually on harder terms--whereas unsuccessful development has usually led to a reduction in the aid supplied. In countries of retarded growth, on the other hand, there has been less of a shortfall in savings and investment rates than in growth of gross national product. Internal factors provide the primary explanation of slow growth in Tunisia and Chile. In Ceylon and Ghana, the retardation of growth can be largely attributed to market conditions for their major primary exports-- tea and cocoa, respectively--which account for over 50 percent of total exports in each country. In India and, to a lesser extent, Colombia, the reduction in external assistance played a major role in retarding growth. In the aid planning of the 196Os, the donors were primarily concerned with the efficiency of use of capital, the risk of loss, and intercountry equity. The shortfall of aid to India in 1962-70 was on the order of $6 billion.

This study emphasizes the dynamism of the enterprise approach in manufacturing geography and the elusive quality of the milieu concept. It identifies the facilitating and restraining conditioning elements of the changing milieu of a large shipbuilding firm which, form 1950 to 1964, the period analyzed, comprised a major though rapidly declining part of the export base of Northern Ireland. The paper suggests that the local region provided a relatively permissive milieu for the firm, though it offered few opportunities for diversification. Competitive difficulties that arose during the period came mainly from the changing international milieu, especially movements in the composition of world demand and the appearance of Japanese suppliers. These difficulties were suggested in part to reflect the condition of the firm's internal resources, but they were increasingly assigned to the state of its national milieu. Also outlined are some of the firm's adoptive and adaptive features and the form of its adverse impact, including through multiplier effects, on the development of the local region.

We present a Kaldor-Thirlwall theoretical and empirical framework on the basic driving forces of the behaviour of productivity and economic development in the long run. By calculating the so-called Thirlwall equation, the main contribution of our research is to examine whether Brazil has been catching up or falling behind. We show some empirical evidence based on both descriptive statistics and econometric regressions for Brazil between 1970 and 2010. Some important indicators of descriptive statistics reveal that Brazil has entered into a process of early deindustrialisation. In addition, since our econometric estimates also show that there was a dramatic increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports between 1980-98 and 1999-2010 (from 1.97 to 3.36) and a small decrease in the income elasticity for exports during the same periods (from 1.36 to 1.33), we conclude that Brazil not only has already embarked on a trajectory of falling behind relative to the world economy and the international economic frontier, but also that it might show, in the absence of appropriate policies, lower growth rates in the long run. However, if the opposite occurs, it would face major long-term external constraints to growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the impact and causal relation of outbound Chinese FDI on growth, employment and export performance of 16 selected US States by using Panel data. The contemporaneous panel fixed estimation results shows that the impact of Chinese outbound FDI on the economic growth, employment and export of selected states are insignificant. But the impact of FDI on growth turns positive and significant when interacted with States export to China. Applying heterogeneous panel causality approach on a refined dynamic panel model indicates that Chinese FDI does not cause GDP, exports and employment while the results of reverse causality confirm that US State GDP (market size) cause the inflow of Chinese outbound FDI. The overall impact of Chinese outbound investment, a small portion of the total FDI inflow to the US, varies from conditionally positive to utterly insignificant without any adverse impact on the local economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the change in donors’ priorities since the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, there has been a decline in annual aid inflows to Pacific island countries (PICs), which have been among the world's top recipients of aid per capita in the past. Along with fall in aid inflows, growing annual domestic budgetary deficits in recent years have forced some PICs to finance them through borrowing. This paper seeks to examine whether external debt contributed to economic growth in PICs by undertaking a study of six major PICs. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We explore the relationship between export variety and economic development, using data on OECD countries between 1964 and 2003. We show that structural change in the world economy has a particular arrow of time leading to a growing variety of exports. Distinguishing between related variety (within sectors) and unrelated variety (variety between sectors), we also show that related variety stimulates growth instantaneously, while unrelated variety only promotes growth with a considerable time lag. This finding is in line with the evolutionary notions that economic development and international trade patterns are path dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the rapid development of trade between Taiwan and mainland China has made it essential that a reliable method be worked out for calculating trade values. This paper consists of a theoretical analysis of the different statistical methods so far devised and the contrasting and somewhat confusing data they have produced. An attempt has been made to integrate these methods to produce a more accurate estimate of the level of Taiwan-mainland trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A transition in international trade has taken place in recent years. The economies of many Western European nations and Japan have been revitalized, due largely to American aid in the immediate postwar period; and these same nations now are energetically competing for markets with U.S.-made goods. The author examines the balance-of-payments problem faced by the United States; the role that increased exports can play in helping to solve these difficulties; and the joint business and government efforts being made by the National Export Expansion Committee of the Department of Commerce and its regional committees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study empirically analyzes the direct impacts derived from the swift increase in exports to China (referred to as “the impact of China”) on the economic growth of three selected South American countries, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, during the commodity boom between 2001 and 2008. The results stemming from the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model suggest that the magnitude of China’s impact was less than 1 percent, although it ranged from the largest to the second largest impact among all trading partners for the three countries. The estimated balance-of-payments growth rate of domestic income is lower than the real growth rate of domestic income. This is because the growth rates of the export volumes were not sufficient even during the commodity boom, on account of the continued increasing trends of income elasticity of demand for imports. Furthermore, the income elasticities of demand for imports from China were especially high. Therefore, the three countries will continue to face further increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports as well as a stagnant growth rate of export volumes. Thus, the balance-of-payments position will continue to be the main growth constraint for these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Public Policy is the property of University of Toronto Press and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article assesses the impact of economic integration on Tanzania's sociometabolic profile for the years 1970-2011, which witnessed an opening and further integration of Tanzania's economy through increased trade and foreign investment, through a time-series economy-wide material flows analysis (EW-MFA). The EW-MFA results show that contrary to the trade patterns of many developing countries, increased economic integration has resulted in Tanzania becoming a net importer of resources across all material categories when measured by the physical trade balance indicator. Additionally, the article discusses the conceptual and empirical challenges of measuring ecologically unequal exchange with EW-MFAs for developing countries whose export profiles are dominated by lightweight, high-value precious stones and metals. It also assesses the degree to which the Tanzanian economy has undergone dematerialization over the past 40 years of economic integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de la CEPAL is the property of United Nations Publications and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article focuses on the frequency that the U.S. is exporting most of its products to most countries, given the importance of international trade for economic growth. The author notes that international commerce accounts for almost one-fifth of the gross output of the U.S. economy. He adds that foreign markets means employment is provided by the U.S. manufacturers at home. The author mentions China as the perfect example of a country that grow economically through trade.

During the last few years, the People's Republic of China has become an increasingly important trading partner for Germany. Particularly in the wake of the global economic and financial crisis that began in 2008, trade with China has been an important driver of economic growth in Germany as German industry benefited from the increase in Chinese import demand more than other European countries. However, Chinese economic growth has slowed somewhat since then. After recording double-digit growth rates in the past, the new Chinese government is now attempting to stabilize annual economic growth at 7.5 percent. It is therefore likely that future German export growth rates to China will be lower than in recent years. Further, according to the government's new plans, Chinese economic growth should rely less on export and investment, as has been the case to date, and more on domestic performance and private consumption in the future. It is anticipated that this shift will also have a negative impact on German export industry, which is dominated by capital goods. Additionally, Chinese demand for imports is likely to decline as China's domestic production of cars and machinery expands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Tendencias: Revista de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Administrativas is the property of Universidad de Narino, Facultad de Ciencias Economics y Administrativas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article presents an analysis on the impact of Russian export policies imposed on timber products on the border economy in Finland. It examines the economic impact of tariffs imposed on Russian roundwood exports on the economy of a Finnish border region. It is argued that commercial timber industry in the region's top economic source of Finnish border economy. The cessation of Finnish timber imports after 2009, under the new protectionist Russian policy, is inferred to greatly affect the economy of the region, as well as those dependent on imported raw materials.

In Germany the cyclical upturn came to an end during the second half of 2000. Since then there has been no further increase in overall capacity utilization and recently it has even declined slightly. Although in industry incoming orders and output have continued to grow, there is notably less optimism on business prospects. Although economic growth in Germany has lost momentum to a greater extent than expected, the Institutes are sticking to their view that the economy will not experience an extended period of weak economic growth, not to mention a recession. Since the middle of last year the expansion of domestic demand has weakened perceptibly. In the wake of the oil-price shock and the associated loss of purchasing power, private consumption, in particular, has lost momentum. The effects of the weakening of global economic growth can now be expected to strengthen. As a result a marked decline in export growth seems likely, although there is no sign of an absolute contraction. As detailed in the report on the world economy, the signs are that the USA will avoid a recession and that the US economy will recover during the second half of the year.