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We present a thorough analysis of the scientific production in climate change and adaptation in Brazil. We conducted a bibliometric and bibliographic review to reveal and discuss how climate change research has been carried out. We compared a broader climate change research dataset with a more specific climate adaptation research dataset, to understand the main differences and convergence points, and how science conducted from a mitigation and adaptation perspective demonstrates potential to confront the climate change challenges and drivers in Brazil. Four main clusters of investigation within climate change were detected: (1) impacts on forest and plant development, (2) land use and ecology, (3) adaptation/governance, and (4) climate/atmospheric studies. Only about 5% of the total studies on climate change address adaptation, for which three main clusters of research were identified: (1) adaptation actions and policies; (2) urban environment, vulnerability, and health and (3) food and coastal impacts. Although there are strong research trends in climate change for the Amazon Forest, there was less evidence of studies concerning climate adaptation for this and other Brazilian biomes, smaller cities, rural and traditional communities, and poorer regions. Our results shed a light on the more commonly chosen research topics, their strongest points and potential gaps and trends. This can contribute to the scientific communication and implementation of climate actions in Brazil, and a better understanding of the climate science knowledge from the perspective of a middle-income country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Amazon River, its huge basin, and the changes in biological processes that are rapidly occurring in this region are unquestionably of global significance. Hence, Global Change Biology is delighted to host a special thematic issue devoted to the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazônia (LBA), which is a multinational, interdisciplinary research program led by Brazil. The goal of LBA is no less modest than its subject: to understand how Amazônia functions as a regional entity in the Earth system and how these functions are changing as a result of ongoing changes in land use. This compilation of 26 papers resulting from LBA-related research covers a broad range of topics: forest stocks of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N); fluxes of greenhouse gases and volatile organic compounds from vegetation, soils and wetlands; mapping and modeling land-use change, fire risk, and soil properties; measuring changes caused by logging, pasturing and cultivating; and new research approaches in meteorology to estimate nocturnal fluxes of C from forests and pastures. Some important new synthesis can be derived from these and other studies. The aboveground biomass of intact Amazonian forests appears to be a sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), while the wetlands and soils are a net source of atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), respectively. Land-use change has, so far, had only a minor effect on basin-wide emissions of CH4 and N2O, but the net effect of deforestation and reforestation appears to be a significant net release of CO2 to the atmosphere. The sum of the 100-year global warming potentials (GWP) of these annual sources and sinks of CH4, N2O, and CO2 indicate that the Amazonian forest-river system currently may be nearly balanced in terms of the net GWP of these biogenic atmospheric gases. Of course, large uncertainties remain for these estimates, but the papers published here demonstrate tremendous progress, and also large remaining hurdles, in narrowing these uncertainties in our understanding of how Amazônia functions as a regional entity in the Earth system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amazonia is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change but few studies pinpointing priority areas for local adaptation programmes exist. This paper aims to identify socio-climatic hotspots among the 515 municipalities that compose the Brazilian Amazon by using a three-step process. First, we identified the regional social hotspots, that is, municipalities that have currently low adaptive capacity, by calculating a composite infrastructure index based on the assessment of both current green and socioeconomic infrastructures. Second, we used a Regional Climate Change Index to identify the climate change hotspots, that is, those municipalities that have a high likelihood to experience future climate change risks. Third, we evaluated the geographic coincidence of social and climate change hotspots to identify the socio-climatic hotspots. We found that 117 municipalities are regional social hotspots and that 60 municipalities are regional climate change hotspots. Forty-six municipalities are considered as socio-climatic hotspots because they have very low to low composite infrastructure indices and very high climate risk indices. Local institutional capacity to integrate and execute national-level policies that enhance local adaptive capacity is a major constraint across the region. To face the challenges associated with climate change, municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon should embrace a more sustainable development model. Sustainable development, in the context of the Brazilian Amazon, implies conservation of the existing green infrastructure through the expansion of protected areas and indigenous lands, restoration of green infrastructure in areas of deficit, and substantial investments in urban socioeconomic infrastructures to foster a knowledge-based economy. Although local sustainable development and adaptation plans are essential across the entire region, the 46 municipalities identified in this study as regional socio-climatic hotspots could be prioritized for action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our aim with this paper is to present a novel approach for developing story lines and scenarios by combining qualitative knowledge and quantitative data from different disciplines and discussing the results with relevant decision makers. This research strategy offers a solid foundation for perspectives into the future. The "laboratory" is the Brazilian Amazon, one of the hotspots of land-use change where local and global interests both collide and converge: local livelihoods are affected by regional and global climate change and by the loss of biodiversity caused by local and global economic interests in agro-industrial land use; such use contributes, in turn, to climate change. After decades of diverse policy interventions the question arises: What can we learn from past trajectories for a more sustainable development in the future? To answer this question, we combined qualitative story lines for the region, reviewed by local experts, with quantitative land-use scenarios, to study their regional and local manifestations in space. These results were then discussed again with local and national experts. Our findings suggest that in-depth knowledge of the diverging perspectives at a very local level is a fundamental prerequisite for downscaling global scenarios and upscaling local approaches to sustainable land-use management and thus, to producing communicable and applicable results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr-1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr-1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr-1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia. The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranhāo, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin. The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges. Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Brazil is one of the major contributors to land‐use change emissions, mostly driven by agricultural expansion for food, feed, and bioenergy feedstock. Policies to avoid deforestation related to private commitments, economic incentives, and other support schemes are expected to improve the effectiveness of current command and control mechanisms increasingly. However, until recently, land tenure was unknown for much of the Brazilian territory, which has undermined the governance of native vegetation and challenged support and incentive mechanisms for avoiding deforestation. We assess the total extent of public governance mechanisms protecting aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks. We constructed a land tenure dataset for the entire nation and modeled the effects and uncertainties of major land‐use acts on protecting AGC stocks. Roughly 70% of the AGC stock in Brazil is estimated to be under legal protection, and an additional 20% is expected to be protected after areas in the Amazon with currently undesignated land undergo a tenure regularization. About 30% of the AGC stock is on private land, of which roughly two‐thirds are protected. The Cerrado, Amazon, and Caatinga biomes hold about 40%, 30%, and 20% of the unprotected AGC, respectively. Effective conservation of protected and unprotected carbon will depend on successful implementation of the Forest Act, and regularization of land tenure in the Amazon. Policy development that prioritizes unprotected AGC stocks is warranted to promote conservation of native vegetation beyond the legal requirements. However, different biomes and land tenure structures may require different policy settings considering local and regional specifics. Finally, the fate of current AGC stocks relies upon effective implementation of command and control mechanisms, considering that unprotected AGC in native vegetation on private land only accounts for 6.5% of the total AGC stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on the article "Natural Forest Disturbance and Change in the Brazilian Amazon," by B. W. Nelson. Alterations in undisturbed tree communities in central Amazonia; Peak wet-season rainfall, first 5 months of each year, at Manaus, Brazil from 1968 to 2000; Tree mortality rates.