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This paper reports the study which explored the learning and teaching of the topics of climate change, sustainability and disaster risk reduction in secondary-level teacher education programs in England and Japan. Through interviewing teacher educators, the study particularly probed how teacher education programs used local knowledge and collaboration in discussing the above topics. Geography tends to be the main subject area for these global agendas, but its crammed curriculum is "an ongoing challenge" for teacher education. Some researchers demonstrate that university-based initial teacher education has "ignored" training teachers on how to implement environmental and sustainability education at schools. Besides, the inquiries into how initial teacher education equips geography teachers for the learning and teaching of disaster risk reduction are still scarce. This paper aims to fill this gap by bringing together the fields of geography education, climate change and sustainability education, disaster risk reduction education and initial teacher education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, global warming has become a prominent topic, including its impacts on human health. The number of heat illness cases requiring ambulance transport has been strongly linked to increasing temperature and the frequency of heat waves. Thus, a potential increase in the number of cases in the future is a concern for medical resource management. In this study, we estimated the number of heat illness cases in three prefectures of Japan under 2 °C global warming scenarios, approximately corresponding to the 2040s. Based on the population composition, a regression model was used to estimate the number of heat illness cases with an input parameter of time-dependent meteorological ambient temperature or computed thermophysiological response of test subjects in large-scale computation. We generated 504 weather patterns using 2 °C global warming scenarios. The large-scale computational results show that daily amount of sweating increased twice and the core temperature increased by maximum 0.168 °C, suggesting significant heat strain. According to the regression model, the estimated number of heat illness cases in the 2040s of the three prefectures was 1.90 (95%CI: 1.35-2.38) times higher than that in the 2010s. These computational results suggest the need to manage ambulance services and medical resource allocation, including intervention for public awareness of heat illnesses. This issue will be important in other aging societies in near future., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

This paper aims to illustrate the crucial role of preserving, protecting and managing the environment by Indigenous Peoples in Japan and India. Traditional Knowledge has provided the ability to detect, understand and respond to environmental changes. However, modern science and applied technology often fall short of sustainable practices, acquired through 'centuries of local observation'. Our consumer-centric world has unravelled a sad situation that has contributed to an irretrievable climate crisis. Multilateral instruments, however, have come to the rescue. In this journey, Japan and India have shown the world some constructive initiatives with positive outcomes which could go a long way in achieving the UN-SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of climate change on power demand in Japan and its related CO 2 emissions is a matter of concern for the Japanese authorities and power companies as it may have consequences on the power grid, but is also of global importance as Japan is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we trained random forest models against daily power data in ten Japanese regions and for different types of power generation to project changes in future power production and its carbon intensity. We used climate variables, heat stress indices, and one variable for the level of human activities. We then used the models trained from the present-day period to estimate the future power demand, carbon intensity, and pertaining CO 2 emissions over the period 2020-2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The impact of climate change on CO 2 emissions via power generation shows seasonal and regional disparities. In cold regions, a decrease in power demand during winter under future warming leads to an overall decrease in power demand over the year. In contrast, the decrease in winter power demand in hot regions can be overcompensated by an increase in summer power demand due to more frequent hot days, resulting in an overall annual increase. From our regional models, power demand is projected to increase the most in most Japanese regions in May, June, September, and October rather than in the middle of summer, as found in previous studies. This increase could result in regular power outages during those months as the power grid could become particularly tense. Overall, we observed that power demand in regions with extreme climates is more sensitive to global warming than in temperate regions. The impact of climate change on power demand induces a net annual decrease in CO 2 emissions in all regions except for Okinawa, in which power demand strongly increases during the summer, resulting in a net annual increase in CO 2 emissions. However, climate change's impact on carbon intensity may reverse the trend in some regions (Shikoku, Tohoku). Additionally, we assessed the relative impacts of socioeconomic factors such as population, GDP, and environmental policies on CO 2 emissions. When combined with these factors, we found that the climate change effect is more important than when considered individually and significantly impacts total CO 2 emissions under SSP585. The contrasting results observed in the warm and cold regions of Japan can offer valuable insight into the potential future variations in energy demand and resulting CO 2 emissions on a global scale., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Maritime shipping is considered a major air pollutant that directly affects global warming and climate change. This study aims to design an emission control route (ECR) that can contribute to long-term initiatives along with emission prevention policies. Applying a scenario analysis, this paper has analyzed the impact of ECR implementation on air quality in the shipping route between Korea and Japan. In this study, the ECR is defined as eco-friendly shipping routes that recommend maintaining a specific level of speed while sailing. Based on the navigation trajectories of 55 O/Ds, which were extracted by the automatic identification system (AIS) data of 135 container ships for each port call during one year, the ECR domains were designated. To analyze the introduction impacts, this study employed a scenario analysis based on the current Vessel Speed Reduction Program (VSRP) recommendation of 12 knots or less. The results demonstrated that the introduction of ECR in the liner services between Korea and Japan would increase the average travel time by 10.47–16.98%. However, according to the results of the scenario analysis, the introduction of the ECR can reduce emissions by 25.65% to 39.73%. By suggesting the initial concept of ECR and analyzing the emission reduction effects of its implementation, this study provides useful insights for a balance between economic and environmental performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As interest in natural capital grows and society increasingly recognizes the value of biodiversity, we must discuss how ecosystem observations to detect changes in biodiversity can be sustained through collaboration across regions and sectors. However, there are many barriers to establishing and sustaining large-scale, fine-resolution ecosystem observations. First, comprehensive monitoring data on both biodiversity and possible anthropogenic factors are lacking. Second, some in situ ecosystem observations cannot be systematically established and maintained across locations. Third, equitable solutions across sectors and countries are needed to build a global network. Here, by examining individual cases and emerging frameworks, mainly from (but not limited to) Japan, we illustrate how ecological science relies on long-term data and how neglecting basic monitoring of our home planet further reduces our chances of overcoming the environmental crisis. We also discuss emerging techniques and opportunities, such as environmental DNA and citizen science as well as using the existing and forgotten sites of monitoring, that can help overcome some of the difficulties in establishing and sustaining ecosystem observations at a large scale with fine resolution. Overall, this paper presents a call to action for joint monitoring of biodiversity and anthropogenic factors, the systematic establishment and maintenance of in situ observations, and equitable solutions across sectors and countries to build a global network, beyond cultures, languages, and economic status. We hope that our proposed framework and the examples from Japan can serve as a starting point for further discussions and collaborations among stakeholders across multiple sectors of society. It is time to take the next step in detecting changes in socio-ecological systems, and if monitoring and observation can be made more equitable and feasible, they will play an even more important role in ensuring global sustainability for future generations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to develop a system to estimate a country-scale soil organic carbon stock change (SCSC) in agricultural lands in Japan that enables to take account effect of land-use changes, climate, different agricultural activity and nature of soils, a spatially- explicit model simulation system using Rothamsted Carbon Model (RothC) integrated with spatial and temporal inventories was developed. Future scenarios on agricultural activity and land-use change were prepared, in addition to future climate projections by global climate models, with purposely selecting rather exaggerated and contrasting set of scenarios to assess system's sensitivity as well as to better factor out direct human influence in the SCSC accounting. Simulation was run from year 1970 to 2008, and to year 2020, with historical inventories and future scenarios involving target set in agricultural policy, respectively, and subsequently until year 2100 with no temporal changes in land-use and agricultural activity but with varying climate to investigate course of SCSC. Results of the country-scale SCSC simulation have indicated that conversion of paddy fields to croplands occurred during past decades, as well as a large conversion of agricultural fields to settlements or other lands that have occurred in historical period and would continue in future, could act as main factors causing greater loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) at country-scale, with reduction organic carbon input to soils and enhancement of SOC decomposition by transition of soil environment to aerobic conditions, respectively. Scenario analysis indicated that an option to increase organic carbon input to soils with intensified rotation with suppressing conversion of agricultural lands to other land-use types could achieve reduction of CO2 emission due to SCSC in the same level as that of another option to let agricultural fields be abandoned. These results emphasize that land-use changes, especially conversion of the agricultural lands to other land-use types by abandoning or urbanization accompanied by substantial changes in the rate of organic carbon input to soils, could cause a greater or comparable influence on country-scale SCSC compared with changes in management of agricultural lands. A net-net based accounting on SCSC showed potential influence of variations in future climate on SCSC, that highlighted importance of application of process-based model for estimation of this quantity. Whereas a baseline-based accounting on SCSC was shown to have robustness over variations in future climate and effectiveness to factor out direct human-induced influence on SCSC. Validation of the system's function to estimate SCSC in agricultural lands, by comparing simulation output with data from nation-wide stationary monitoring conducted during year 1979-1998, suggested that the system has an acceptable levels of validity, though only for limited range of conditions at current stage. In addition to uncertainties in estimation of the rate of organic carbon input to soils in different land-use types at large-scale, time course of SOC sequestration, supposition on land-use change pattern in future, as well as feasibility of agricultural policy planning are considered as important factors that need to be taken account in estimation on a potential of country-scale SCSC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flood risk increase due to climate change is one of the world's most pressing issues. Different countries and regions may take or have taken different approaches to deal with it. Therefore, information sharing and learning from each other are essential for achieving flood risk reduction on a global scale, especially in times of climate change. This paper provides a diagnosis of challenges in flood risk management in Japan in response to climate change. It highlights change in hazard and exposure and increase in vulnerability. Further, it placed its attention on new strategies taken by the Japanese government to counteract climate change impacts with a particular focus on the latest legal development to better support flood risk management. Although there are large amounts of research concerning climate action in the existing literature, the majority of them focus on technical and social aspects. The present study enriches literature on flood risk management and sheds new light on how to advance integrated river basin management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan is a country with one of the highest incidences of sediment disasters, which will become more severe and more frequent as a result of climate change. This paper reviews the recent occurrence of sediment disasters caused by heavy rainfall affected by climate change in recent years, challenges in adaptation measures, and recent policies targeting such sediment disasters in Japan. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) has been conducting non-structural and structural measures based on legislation. Recently, climate change has resulted in more severe and frequent disasters along with damage caused by sediment movement phenomena that are not covered by the present system for warning and evacuation. Efforts to establish assessment methods concerning the risk of these phenomena are shown as examples of current challenges of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How is science advice integrated in environmental policymaking? This is an increasingly pertinent question that is being raised since the nuclear catastrophe of Fukushima, Japan, in 2011. Global re-evaluation of energy policies and climate mitigation measures include discussions on how to better integrate science advice in policymaking, and at the same time keeping science independent from political influence. This paper addressed the policy discourse of setting up a national CO2 reduction target in Japanese policymaking between 2009 and 2012. The target proposed by the former DPJ government was turned down, and Japan lacked a clear strategy for long-term climate mitigation. The analysis provides explanations from a quantitative actor-network perspective. Centrality measures from social network analysis for policy actors in an environmental policy network of Japan were calculated to identify those actors that control the discourse. Data used for analysis comes from the Global Environmental Policy Actor Network 2 (GEPON 2) survey conducted in Japan (2012-13). Science advice in Japan was kept independent from political influence and was mostly excluded from policymaking. One of the two largest discourse coalitions in the environmental policy network promoted a higher CO2 reduction target for international negotiations but favored lowering the target after a new international agreement would have been set. This may explain why Japan struggled to commit to long-term mitigation strategies. Applying social network analysis to quantitatively calculate discourse coalitions was a feasible methodology for investigating "discursive power." But limited in discussing the "practice" (e.g. meetings, telephone, or email conversations) among the actors in discourse coalitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article situates Japan in the international climate security debate by analysing competing climate change discourses. In 2020, for the first time, the Japanese Ministry of the Environment included the term "climate crisis" (kikō kiki) in its annual white paper, and the Japanese parliament adopted a "climate emergency declaration" (kikō hijō jitai sengen). Does this mean that Japan's climate discourse is turning toward the securitisation of climate change? Drawing on securitisation theory, this article investigates whether we are seeing the emergence of a climate change securitisation discourse that treats climate change as a security issue rather than a conventional political issue. The analysis focuses on different stakeholders in Japan's climate policy: the Japanese Ministry of the Environment, the Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the parliament, the Cabinet, and sub- and non-state actors. Through a discourse analysis of ministry white papers and publications by other stakeholders, the article identifies a burgeoning securitisation discourse that challenges, albeit moderately, the status quo of incrementalism and inaction in Japan's climate policy. This article further highlights Japan's position in the rapidly evolving global debate on the urgency of climate action and provides explanations for apparent changes and continuities in Japan's climate change discourse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic perturbation during the Pleistocene era has played a major role in plant evolutionary history by altering species distribution range. However, the relative roles of climatic and geographic factors in the distribution dynamics remain poorly understood; in particular, the edaphic endemics. In this paper, we examine the evolutionary history of two ultramafic primroses, Primula hidakana and Primula takedana. These species are ecologically and morphologically distinct with disjunct distributions on Hokkaido Island, Japan. Primula hidakana is found on various rocks in southern Hokkaido and P. takedana in serpentine areas in northern Hokkaido. We performed population genetics analyses on nuclear and chloroplast data sets and tested alternative phylogenetic models of divergence using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analyses. Nuclear microsatellite loci clearly distinguished the two sister taxa. In contrast, chloroplast sequence variations were shared between P. takedana and P. hidakana. ABC analyses based on nuclear data supported a secondary contact scenario involving asymmetrical gene flow from P. hidakana to P. takedana. Paleodistribution modeling also supported the divergence model, and predicted their latitudinal range shifts leading to past secondary contact. Our findings highlight the importance of the distribution dynamics during the Pleistocene climatic oscillations in the evolution of serpentine plants, and demonstrate that tight species cohesion between serpentine and nonserpentine sister taxa has been maintained despite past interspecific gene flow across soil boundaries.

The westerly jet (WJ) is an important component of atmospheric circulation, which is characterized by prominent seasonal variations in intensity and position. However, the response of the WJ over Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is still not clear. Using general circulation model experiments, the seasonal behaviors of the WJ over central Asia and Japan are analyzed in this paper. The results show that, compared to the present day (PD), the WJ presents a complicated response during the LGM, both in intensity and position. Over central Asia, it becomes weaker in both summer and winter. But over Japan, it is enhanced in summer but becomes diminished in winter. In terms of position, the WJ over central Asia shifts southward in both summer and winter, whereas the WJ over Japan moves southward in summer but does not change obviously relative to PD in winter. Such WJ changes are well explained by meridional temperature gradients in high troposphere, which is closely linked to seasonal thermal anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Despite cooler LGM conditions, the anomalous warming center over the TP becomes stronger in summer. Derived from the heat budget equation, the stronger heating center is mainly caused by the weaker adiabatic cooling generated from ascending motion over the area south of the TP. In winter, the cooling over the TP is also strengthened, mostly owing to the subsidence-induced weaker adiabatic heating. Due to the importance of the WJ, the potential role of TP thermal effects should be a focus when explaining the East Asian climate change during the LGM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Miura, H.; Ito, Y., and Suenaga, Y., 2018. Construction of Climate Change-Adapted Seaweed Beds on the Japanese Coast. In: Shim, J.-S.; Chun, I., and Lim, H.S. (eds.), Proceedings from the International Coastal Symposium (ICS) 2018 (Busan, Republic of Korea). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 85, pp. 391–395. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Japanese coastal seaweed beds are experiencing a long-term decline in area coverage in a phenomenon called isoyake, which has massively impacted the fisheries industry. Therefore, research has been performed on seaweed bed restoration. Consequent measures have been implemented along with the promulgation of relevant technology. Meanwhile, increasing seawater temperatures and other environmental changes associated with climate change, which is one of the causes of isoyake, are spreading globally and have become increasingly severe in recent years. With respect to methods of coping with the effects of climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (2014) calls for “adaptation” to effects that have already occurred and unavoidable medium- and long-term effects. In this context, this paper discusses the present state of and future forecasts for seaweed beds on the Japanese coast, and it then considers the future trends of climate change-adapted seaweed bed construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estuaries are dynamic environments which are driven by various natural processes like river discharge, tides, waves, influx of saline water and sediments, etc. These ecosystems are the most sensitive to sea level rise and fluctuations in river discharge associated with climate change. A direct response of sea level rise and river discharge can be observed in the water level of estuaries. However, existing models have not considered these parameters for forecasting water level. This paper focuses on developing a water level forecast model for the Chikugo River estuary in Japan using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous inputs (NARX Model). NARX neural network was used to do the one-step-ahead prediction of water level considering the various parameters that can very well be influenced by climate change: previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Accordingly, three models were developed: (i) Model I considering previous water level; (ii) Model II additionally considering river discharge; and (iii) Model III additionally considering salinity. All the models showed appreciable performance in forecasting the water level. Model III had the best correlation with the water level with a cross-correlation value of 0.6030, while the river discharge had only a cross-correlation of 0.1113 indicating that the Chikugo River estuary is tide-dominated. The model was trained using different combinations of available data - previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Cross-correlation results showed a better correlation between water level and salinity than various other combinations trained. Therefore, tidal intrusion influences the water level in the estuary, thereby depicting that sea level rise can affect the water level, and its influence can be well predicted by the developed model. The water level significantly affects the flora and fauna and the predictability of future estuarine floods can help in taking necessary mitigation strategies. • Water Level of Chikugo estuary forecasted using NARX model. • Analyzed the influence of previous water level, discharge and salinity. • Water level has more cross-correlation with salinity than discharge. • Forecasted the water level for various river discharge and salinity. • Model capable to analyse the influence of climate change on water level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most canopy-forming macroalgae have disappeared from temperate reefs in southern Japan, one of the ocean warming hotspots, but Sargassum nipponicum is surviving in this region. As this species' annual shoots emerge from holdfasts during summer, both plant components may be highly tolerant to warm and nutrient-poor conditions in this season. The present study examined the effects of temperature and nutrient conditions on holdfast growth, shoot emergence from holdfasts, and shoot growth in S. nipponicum samples collected in Tanegashima Island, southern Japan. The summer temperature in this region (30 °C) allowed holdfast growth and shoot emergence but inhibited shoot growth. Nutrient-poor conditions had limited effects on the first two parameters but suppressed shoot growth. These results suggested that during warm summers and under nutrient-poor conditions in southern Japan, shoots can emerge from S. nipponicum holdfasts but cannot further grow. Additionally, nutrient loading from a nearby river was higher at the only site dominated by S. nipponicum, than at the other sites where this species was absent on Tanegashima Island. This was observed especially between autumn and winter, implying that such a nutrient-rich environment may contribute to shoot growth in S. nipponicum and to the persistence of its population in the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper introduced the model of the additive tectonics stress from celestial tide-generating force. The model can be used to explain the relationship between additive tectonics stress and seismic fault sliding. According to the periodic changes of the additive tectonics stress, the temperature is analyzes based on the temperature data of NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) which are gathered for a period of time before and after the Hokkaido, Japan earthquake (25 September 2003). It is found that the abnormal increasing of the temperature is significantly associated with the seismic deformation, even if the epicenter was covered by the clouds. The effect of the additive tectonics stress on activities of the fault is to trigger it at a time when the stress level has already reached an advanced stage as indicated by the temperature increase. Based on this model, it is possible to forewarn short-impending earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One proposed strategy to solve current environmental challenges is industrial and urban symbiosis (I/UrS); however, appropriate evaluation methods are needed so that the potential benefits of I/UrS can be quantified. Several evaluation methods have been applied separately to study I/UrS, but no integrated studies have been conducted by applying different methods in the same case study area. Therefore, this study aimed to establish a comprehensive framework to evaluate I/UrS by combining the material flow analysis (MFA), carbon footprint (CF) and emergy methods. First, we developed a unified database and step-by-step process to clarify the waste distribution and recycling processes in an industrial city. Then a baseline scenario and an I/UrS scenario were set up to define the baselines and effects of I/UrS and compare the results. Finally, the three methods were applied to identify physical features in the I/UrS system. The MFA-based results showed that the use of I/UrS led to a 6.4% reduction in the physical value of material use. The CF-based results indicated that reduction of waste and by-products results in a 13.8% reduction in CO 2 e emissions. The emergy-based results showed that, with the implementation of I/UrS, the value of the emergy sustainability index (excluding labor and services) improved greatly (a 49.2% emergy reduction) as compared with the baseline case (a 14.3% reduction). In addition, the effects of implementing I/UrS by waste and by-product exchanges for blast furnace slag, scrap steel, waste paper, and waste plastic were evaluated. Whereas the CF reductions of unit ton of blast furnace slag is relatively low, emergy reductions of that is comparatively high. If policymakers only consider CF results when addressing the issue of climate change, the effects on emergy will be underestimated in this case. We conclude that the main actors in this area release huge emissions, but they also have a high potential to reduce their environmental loads. In addition, with appropriate designs, waste paper and plastics recycling could be highly efficient. Finally, the integration of the three evaluation methods should contribute to creating a low carbon and more resource independent society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan's rivers are shaped by distinctive topography and abundant rainfall, and they face flooding and sediment supply escalation concerns under climate change. Small- and medium-sized rivers tend to catch unprecedented forces that exceed planned levels, leading to substantial widening and excavation. Thus, there is a demand for a method that is capable of managing significant flood flows over an extended period. The spur dike can maintain channel clearance by promoting erosion as well as providing bank protection. However, the effectiveness of this spur dike function has not been well studied in small- and medium-sized rivers and curved reaches. In this study, we evaluate the function of spur dikes in improving channel sustainability based on examples of small- and medium-sized rivers that have maintained their channel for more than ten years after spur dike installation. First, the applicability of the empirical rule was evaluated by comparing it with actual cases of erosion depths in curved sections in Japan. Next, one-dimensional simulations were performed to evaluate the sustainability of the section over a long period. Finally, a depth-averaged morphodynamic simulation, including the secondary flow effect, was applied to evaluate the location of the flow core and elevation changes due to the spur dike. The results showed that a slight difference in the ratio of river curvature radius to river width (r/B) caused the river channel to be erosive and sedimentary. The reasons for the difference were the cross-sectional expansion caused by the excavation of the bend and the difference in the plane flow regime caused by the shift of the flow core to the inside of the bend. Although it is structurally challenging to reproduce localized scour around a spur dike in a depth-averaged simulation, it is essential for designing to apply the simulation model and combine empirical knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent climate changes have produced extreme climate events. This study focused on extreme snowfall and intended to discuss the vulnerability of temperate mammals against it through interspecies comparisons of spatial niches in northern Japan. We constructed niche models for seven non-hibernating species through wide-scaled snow tracking on skis, whose total survey length was 1144 km. Results: We detected a low correlation (rs < 0.4) between most pairs of species niches, indicating that most species possessed different overwintering tactics. A morphological advantage in locomotion cost on snow did not always expand niche breadth. In contrast, a spatial niche could respond to (1) drastic landscape change by a diminishing understory due to snow, possibly leading to changes in predator-prey interactions, and (2) the mass of cold air, affecting thermoregulatory cost and food accessibility. When extraordinary snowfall occurred, the nonarboreal species with larger body sizes could niche shift, whereas the smaller-sized or semi-arboreal mammals did not. In addition, compared to omnivores, herbivores were prone to severe restriction of niche breadth due to a reduction in food accessibility under extreme climates. Conclusions: Dietary habits and body size could determine the redundancy of niche width, which may govern robustness/vulnerability to extreme snowfall events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pH of coastal seawater varies based on several local forcings, such as water circulation, terrestrial inputs, and biological processes, and these forcings are changing along with global climate change. Understanding the mechanism of pH variation in each coastal area is thus important for a realistic future projection that considers changes in these forcings. From 2020 to 2021, we performed parallel year-round observations of pH and related ocean parameters at five stations around the Japanese coast (Miyako Bay, Shizugawa Bay, Kashiwazaki Coast, Hinase Archipelago, and Ohno Strait) to understand the characteristics of short-term pH variations and their forcings. Annual variability (∼ 1 standard deviation) of pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωar) were 0.05–0.09 and 0.25–0.29, respectively, for three areas with low anthropogenic pressures (Miyako Bay, Kashiwazaki Coast, and Shizugawa Bay), while it increased to 0.16–0.21 and 0.52–0.58, respectively, in two areas with medium anthropogenic pressures (Hinase Archipelago and Ohno Strait in Seto Inland Sea). Statistical assessment of temporal variability at various timescales revealed that most of the annual variabilities in both pH and Ωar were derived by short-term variation at a timescale of <10 d, rather than seasonal-scale variation. Our analyses further illustrated that most of the short-term pH variation was caused by biological processes, while both thermodynamic and biological processes equally contributed to the temporal variation in Ωar. The observed results showed that short-term acidification with Ωar < 1.5 occurred occasionally in Miyako and Shizugawa bays, while it occurred frequently in the Hinase Archipelago and Ohno Strait. Most of such short-term acidified events were related to short-term low-salinity events. Our analyses showed that the amplitude of short-term pH variation was linearly correlated with that of short-term salinity variation, and its regression coefficient at the time of high freshwater input was positively correlated with the nutrient concentration of the main river that flows into the coastal area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From 1997 to 2012, 114 Japanese industry associations implemented voluntary action plans, which are not enforced by laws or regulations, to reduce carbon emissions. This paper investigates whether the establishment of these voluntary action plans by industry associations contributed to the adoption of a carbon emissions target at the firm level within the associations. Using a survey of approximately 1000 firms in Japan, this paper finds that small and medium-sized firms in sectors with voluntary action plans were 2–4 times more likely to establish their own carbon emissions targets than were firms belonging to industry associations without voluntary action plans. In contrast, the paper finds that voluntary action plans did not affect the establishment of emissions targets among firms with more than 3000 employees. This result is consistent with the survey responses, which found that periodic follow-ups under a voluntary action plan helped small firms to obtain important pieces of information and that industry associations played an important role in this process. In general, small firms have relatively large potential for energy saving, but the lack of information prevents its realization. The results confirm the importance of voluntary action plans in removing the information barriers of relatively small firms and encouraging them to implement carbon emissions targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Harvested wood products (HWPs) mitigate climate change through carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution. We construct a model to assess the overall climate change mitigation effect (comprising the carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution effects) resulting from HWPs in regions of Japan. The model allows for projections to 2050 based on future scenarios relating to the domestic forestry industry, HWP use, and energy use. Results: Using the production approach, a nationwide maximum figure of 2.9 MtC year-1 for the HWP carbon storage effect is determined for 2030. The maximum nationwide material substitution effect is 2.9 MtC year-1 in 2050. For the energy substitution effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 4.3 MtC year-1 in 2050 is established, with at least 50% of this figure derived from east and west Japan, where a large volume of logging residue is generated. For the overall climate change mitigation effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 8.4 MtC year-1 in 2050 is established, equivalent to 2.4% of Japan's current carbon dioxide emissions. Conclusions: When domestic roundwood production and HWP usage is promoted, an overall climate change mitigation effect is consistently expected to be attributable to HWPs until 2050. A significant factor in obtaining the material substitution effect will be substituting non-wooden buildings with wooden ones. The policy of promoting the use of logging residue will have a significant impact on the energy substitution effect. An important future study is an integrated investigation of the climate change mitigation effect for both HWPs and forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake Biwa, Japan represents a crucial example of the complex climatic and anthropogenic drivers influencing lake ecological transformations, vital to informing Sustainable Development Goals globally. This study utilizes 20022022 Landsat, MODIS and in situ Lake Biwa monitoring data to analyze surface layer spatiotemporal dynamics across interrelated vegetation, water quality and meteorological indicators -- encompassing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a (Chi) and water temperature (W-TEM). Upward NDVI raster trends were found over 20 years alongside prevalent N, P and Chl declines -- although some increases did occur spatially in P and Chl -- while W-TEM mostly rose lakewide. Southwest-northeast gradients typified distributions. Further attribution analyses revealed W-TEM as the primary N, P and Chl driver, while agricultural expansion and urbanization mediated crucial N and P changes. Moreover, wind speed (WS), Crop, W-TEM, minimum temperature (TMMN), Chl and N constituted top NDVI raster influence factors respectively. These novel integrated models quantifying Lake Biwa ecological responses to multifaceted environmental change provide new perspectives to inform sustainable management of Lake Biwa itself and critical freshwater resources worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate crisis intensifies, the urgency for sustainable, agroecological farming practices has never been greater. This study explores the potential of agrivoltaic systems (AVSs) to meet these needs efficiently. Utilizing geographic information systems for quantitative analysis, this research assesses the electricity generation, agricultural output, job creation, and economic impact of implementing AVS in Japan's Kansai region. The study identifies an ample generation potential, including up to 14,041 GWh/year of electricity generation, suggesting that AVSs could be instrumental in shaping effective policies for both decarbonization and food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The adverse health effects from hot weather and heat waves represent significant public health risks in vulnerable areas worldwide. Rising temperatures due to climate change are aggravating these risks in a context of fast urbanization, population growth and societal ageing. However, environmental heat-related health effects are largely preventable through adequate preparedness and responses. Public health adaptation to climate change will often require the implementation of heat wave warning systems and targeted preventive activities at different levels. While several national governments have established such systems at the country level, municipalities do not generally play a major role in the prevention of heat disorders. This paper analyzes selected examples of locally operated heat-health prevention plans in Japan. The analysis of these plans highlights their strengths, but also the need of local institutions for assistance to make the transition towards an effective public health management of high temperatures and heat waves. It can also provide useful elements for municipal governments in vulnerable areas, both in planning their climate change and health adaptation activities or to better protect their communities against current health effects from heat.

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The high temperature event in July 2018 caused record-breaking human damage throughout Japan. Large-ensemble historical simulations with a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model showed that the occurrence rate of this event under the condition of external forcings in July 2018 was approximately 20%. This high probability was a result of the high-pressure systems both in the upper and lower troposphere in July 2018. The event attribution approach based on the large-ensemble simulations with and without human-induced climate change indicated the following: (1) The event would never have happened without anthropogenic global warming. (2) The strength of the two-tiered high-pressure systems was also at an extreme level and at least doubled the level of event probability, which was independent of global warming. Moreover, a set of the large-ensemble dynamically downscaled outputs revealed that the mean annual occurrence of extremely hot days in Japan will be expected to increase by 1.8 times under a global warming level of 2°C above pre-industrial levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr), trend analysis (linear regression model) including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q). According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100yr (1901-2000): Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate) to 2.95°C (Tokyo). The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976-2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study examines variations in summertime (July–September) tropical cyclone (TC) activity over East Asia during the period 1951–2003. To represent TC activity, a total of 853 TC best tracks for the period were converted to TC passage frequencies (TPFs) within 5° × 5° latitude–longitude grids; TPFs are defined as the percentage values obtained by dividing the number of TC appearances in each grid box by the total number of TCs each year. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the TPF showed three leading modes: two tropical modes that represent the long-term trend and the relationship with ENSO and one midlatitude mode that oscillates between south of Korea and southeast of Japan with an interannual time scale. The latter proved to be the most remarkable climatic fluctuation of summertime TC activity in the midlatitudes and is referred to as the East Asian dipole pattern (EADP) in this paper. Anomalous atmospheric flows directly connected to the EADP are an enhanced anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation centering around Japan when the TPF is high south of Korea (southeast of Japan), thereby showing an equivalent barotropic structure in the entire troposphere. This regional circulation anomaly varies in conjunction with the zonally oriented quasi-stationary Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere. This wave train is meridionally trapped in the vicinity of the summer-mean jet stream; therefore, the mean jet stream alters its internal meandering structure according to the phase of the wave train. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate variability affects important local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an easily quantifiable major driving force that gives impact on regional and local climate. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strongly nonlinear processes. Due to this, teleconnections between globalscale hydro-meteorological variables and local climate are not well understood. In this paper, we suggest to study these processes in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using a nonlinear multivariable approach. This approach is based on the joint variation of these variables in the phase space. The joint phase-space variation of SOI, precipitation, and temperature is studied with the primary objective to obtain a better understanding of the dynamical evolution of local hydro-meteorological variables affected by global atmospheric-oceanic phenomena. The results from the analyses display rather clear low-order phase space trajectories when treating the time series individually. However, when plotting phase space trajectories for several time series jointly, complicated higher-order nonlinear relationships emerge between the variables. Consequently, simple data-driven prediction techniques utilizing phase-space characteristics of individual time series may prove successful. On the other hand, since either the time series are too short and/or the phase-space properties are too complex when analyzing several variables jointly, it may be difficult to use multivariable statistical prediction techniques for the present investigated variables. In any case, it is essential to further pursue studies regarding links between the SOI and observed local climatic and other geophysical variables even if these links are not fully understood in physical terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines body size variation in both recent and Quaternary populations of the Japanese field mouse Apodemus argenteus in order to assess the relative effects on body size of climate change, isolation and competitive interactions with its congeneric A. speciosus. Both temporal (since the Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and spatial (over the Japanese archipelago) scales are considered. The small field mouse is widespread in Japan, and the specimens examined were collected from 10 localities on islands of widely differing area (from 4 km2 to 230,510 km2) and at latitudes ranging from 30.3° N to 45.1° N. The effects of geographical factors such as latitude and island area on the size variation of A. argenteus were investigated, using the lower incisor size. In addition, the size of some specimens from two Quaternary localities was compared with the size of the extant specimens. Evolutionary rates of size change since the LGM were calculated in darwins. Hutchinson size ratios were used to examine the pattern of variation of the size segregation between the two Japanese field mice, A. argenteus and A. speciosus, in relation to time and space. There was a negative relationship between size and latitude among living A. argenteus populations. In addition, there was no effect of island area on body size, especially at higher latitudes. At lower latitudes, A. argenteus were larger on smaller islands, although this trend was not statistically significant. Quaternary specimens of A. argenteus were smaller in size than their living representatives. The interspecific size ratio between the two Japanese Apodemus was larger on smaller islands and at higher latitudes, and there has been a decrease in the size ratio between the two Apodemus since the LGM. Lastly, in accordance with the theory of character displacement, the small A. argenteus was larger in allopatry than in sympatry, whereas the large A. speciosus was smaller in allopatry than in sympatry. These results indicate that A. argenteus does not conform to Bergmann's rule or to the island rule. The variation in size for the small Japanese field mouse at both spatial and temporal scales may be related to climate change, with an additional effect of competition with the large field mouse, especially on smaller islands. The size convergence between the two Japanese Apodemus observed over the last 21,000 years may be explained by the diminution of available food resources due to the reduction of land mass areas following the LGM. It may also be the result of an evolution towards an optimal body size; a hypothesis previously proposed to explain the evolution of body size in island mammals. Lastly, the evolutionary rates of body size calculated for A. argenteus since the LGM are typical of rates calculated for other Quaternary mainland mammals, thus suggesting that the evolution in this species was not particularly rapid, as is often thought for island mammals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests provide diverse ecosystem services to people. Consequently, initiatives have been undertaken to restore deforested areas. In East Asian countries, particularly those within the Asian Monsoon region, deforestation has contributed to natural disasters such as sediment run-off, landslides, and flooding, which are exacerbated by torrential rainfall. Restoring forest cover is a critical aspect of national land conservation. To achieve this goal, state-led afforestation initiatives have been launched. Successful afforestation efforts have also been considered an indicator of economic development. However, Japan, which implemented afforestation projects successfully in the 1950s and 1970s, has experienced the under-utilization of its forests due to significant changes in economic and societal conditions since afforestation took place. During the 2010s, the Japanese government promoted the industrialization of forestry, encouraging final felling and reforestation. However, there have been issues with immature forest operation methods and low forestry productivity. Furthermore, in the context of intensifying climate change, heavy rainfall-induced disasters have become more intense, with an increased threat to human safety. Research efforts from the natural and social science fields in Japan have helped identify issues that need to be addressed concerning forests where plantation trees are now utilizable. There is a need to identify improved methods of forestry practice that reduce the risk of climate change-related disasters and establish related forest policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To prepare and manage urban greenspace for a hotter future, we must select trees that can tolerate or acclimate to high temperatures. Here, we compared tolerance and acclimation to high temperatures among nine urban tree species in Japan. Saplings were exposed to heat from different times (early and mid-summer) during the growing season in a greenhouse. With the exception of Ginko, heating in early summer did not affect whole-tree health, suggesting that most urban tree species may be able to acclimate to higher temperatures during the early growing season. However, continued exposure to higher temperatures, as well as heating from mid-summer, had negative effects on tree health, leading to wilting/browning, especially for evergreen broadleaved species whose leaves mature slowly. Cornus florida, Styrax japonicus and Morella rubra were the most vulnerable to heating, such that all heated saplings had died by the end of summer. At the leaf level, leaf maturation of the deciduous species and Morella was negatively affected by heating, whereas that of Eurya emarginata and Euonymus japonicas were not affected. These two species also showed heat tolerance, having a higher T50 (temperature where leaf quantum yield declined to 50% of maximum value due to heat stress) compared to other species, as well as heat acclimation, where T50 was higher for the heated saplings compared to the control. Our results indicate that, while some species that cannot recover from heat damage in early summer could die, others can acclimate to sustained high temperatures, as well as to late summer heat. As heatwaves are expected to become more frequent and severe due to global warming, tree species need to be screened individually to assess their ability to tolerate or acclimate to high temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

East Asian winter weather has altered dramatically in response to progressing climate change. However, analysis of time‐averaged atmospheric fields might obscure climate change signals that could relate to specific types of events. This study aimed to detect climate change signals for various background atmospheric fields by applying classification to daily surface pressure patterns. We found a pronounced trend of increase in surface air temperature over Japan since the 1980s, stronger than the seasonal mean trend, when dominating cold air advection from the Sea of Okhotsk. This cold air was warmed and humidified by the retreat of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk. In contrast, the warming trend was mitigated when warm air advection was dominant. These results highlight the importance of daily background atmospheric conditions in amplifying and localizing the impact of regional climate change. Plain Language Summary: Winter weather in East Asia varies greatly depending on the daily surface pressure pattern. Hence, the impact of climate change could appear in different forms according to specific weather conditions. This study aimed to detect long‐term changes in atmospheric fields under various weather conditions. Focusing on the daily surface pressure patterns, analysis of East Asian winters showed substantial historical increase in surface air temperature when northerly cold air outbreaks brought colder air toward Japan, and the warming rate was stronger than the trend of the winter average. The retreat of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, located upwind of Japan, caused this local warming and humidification. In contrast, the warming trend was weaker for days when the pressure pattern brought warmer air toward Japan. This finding indicates that winter days with cold air flowing around Japan have been warming more strongly than warm winter days. Our analysis enables assessment of the impact of global warming on specific weather conditions of interest. Key Points: Historical changes in winter climate in Japan were decomposed based on pressure pattern classificationNortherly winter monsoon has been substantially warmed and humidified around Japan due to sea ice retreat in the upwind seaPressure patterns that cause stronger regional response to climate change were identified [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motivated by the novel viewpoint that the two major corporate sustainability disclosure theories – that is, legitimacy theory and voluntary disclosure theory – are not exclusively competing, this study re-evaluates the two theories using our quality-based climate disclosure measures developed based on the 2018 CDP (formerly Carbon Disclosure Project) questionnaire. From Tobit and ordinal logistic regression analyses with the public chemical firms in the United States and Japan, we document that firms with higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are more likely to choose extensive low -quality climate change disclosure rather than high -quality. This finding supports the legitimacy theory that firms tend to utilize low -quality climate change disclosure to obfuscate and legitimize their GHG emissions. However, we do not find evidence supporting the voluntary disclosure theory that superior performers prefer extensive high -quality climate change disclosure rather than low -quality. This paper contributes to the literature by providing new theoretical insights on whether and how firms utilize quality-based climate change disclosure strategies in an attempt to achieve the goals accompanied by the two theories. Furthermore, our findings provide an important practical implication for regulators and policymakers that more concrete and stringent climate disclosure rules could effectively curb inferior performers' discretionary behavior to engage in low -quality disclosure. [Display omitted] • This study analyzes firms' purpose-driven choice of climate disclosure quality. • We developed quality-based climate change disclosure measures with multiple facets. • Legitimacy theory and voluntary disclosure theory are reconciled with each other. • Firms with high GHG emissions choose low -quality climate change disclosure. • The quality-based climate change disclosure supports the legitimacy theory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A residential ground-source heat pump system often requires a long payback time to recover the capital cost. Long-term uncertainty in such a system's performance increases as the climate changes. This study compares 20-years hourly heating/cooling demands of a typical residence in the present (2000–2020) and in the future (2076–2095) for two locations in Japan. This study also calculated soil temperatures as heat sources through 1D heat-transfer simulation based on the A1B climate scenario in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report. System performance and simple payback times were compared in one cold and one warm city in Japan (Sapporo and Tokyo, respectively). Soil temperatures at a middle depth of a borehole heat exchanger were predicted to increase in the future by ~1 °C, with insignificant effects on a borehole heat exchanger. Seasonal performance factors increased in Sapporo because thermal demands would be kept even in the future, but decreased in Tokyo, which has a higher ratio of the energy used in operating the system in cooling mode compared with its small heating demand. The simple payback time was estimated at 16.2 and >20 years in Sapporo and Tokyo, respectively, both in the present and future, with the constant energy prices. If oil and gas prices doubled, the payback time would be halved in Sapporo to 8.4 years but remain around 20 years or more in Tokyo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Floods and torrential rains are natural disasters caused by climate change. Unfortunately, such events are more frequent and are increasingly severe in recent times. The 2018 Japan Floods in western Japan were one of the largest such disasters. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on healthcare costs and service utilization. Methods: This retrospective cohort study included all patients whose receipts accrued between July 2017 and June 2019 in Hiroshima, Okayama, and Ehime prefectures using the National Database of Health Insurance Claims. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to investigate yearly healthcare costs during the pre-and post-disaster periods, quarterly high-cost patients (top 10%), and service utilization (outpatient care, inpatient care, and dispensing pharmacy) during the post-disaster period. After the GEEs, we estimated the average marginal effects as the attributable disaster effect. Results: The total number of participants was 5,534,276. Victims accounted for 0.65% of the total number of participants (n = 36,032). Although there was no significant difference in pre-disaster healthcare costs (p = 0.63), post-disaster costs were $3,382 (95% CI: 3,254–3,510) for victims and $3,027 (95% CI: 3,015–3,038) for non-victims (p < 0.001). The highest risk difference among high-cost patients was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.6–1.1) in the fourth quarter. In contrast, the highest risk difference of service utilization was in the first quarter (outpatient care: 7.0% (95% CI: 6.7–7.4), inpatient care: 1.3% (95% CI: 1.1–1.5), and dispensing pharmacy: 5.9% (95% CI: 5.5–6.4)). Conclusion: Victims of the 2018 Japan Floods had higher medical costs and used more healthcare services than non-victims. In addition, the risk of higher medical costs was highest at the end of the observation period. It is necessary to estimate the increase in healthcare costs according to the disaster scale and plan for appropriate post-disaster healthcare service delivery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Japan is a country committed to complying with the international agreement on mitigating greenhouse gases (GHGs) causing climate change. However, the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami in March 2011 led the country had to modify the energy and environmental policy to global warming. The 15m of tsunami occurred from an underwater earthquake hit the east coast where the nuclear reactors were located. The coolant system failed and the radioactive materials were spread out into the atmosphere, ocean, and soil. The Japanese government investigated the level of contaminated materials (iodine, cesium, etc.) and reassessed the food safety regulations. Simultaneously, consumers' anxiety about the food system was increasing and their preferences for food consumption were affected by the food safety phenomenon that arose in connection with the nuclear accident after the natural disaster. Japanese consumers avoided agricultural and fish products originating from the land and sea, so the consumption per capita of fish decreased by 11.3% while the beef consumption increased by 13.7% between 2011 and 2020. As reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), meat and dairy products are accounted for around 16.5% of global GHGs emissions per year, and there are differences in the emission factors between beef (40.5 kgCO2e/kg) and fish (7.7 kgCO2e/kg). Per capita meat and fish consumption in Japan affected the GHGs emissions and the study employs the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to estimate the impact of a change in dietary patterns on CO2 emissions from household food consumption. The outcome variable is CO2 emissions from household food consumption and the intervention period is between 1995 and 2019 (pre-intervention: 1995-2010; post-intervention: 2011-2019). Analyzing 32 countries, placebo studies, leave-one-out, and post-/pre-MSPE ratio are performed to make the statistical inferences. The results present that there is a meaningful relationship between the dietary patterns and the increase in CO2 emissions. Unlike the countries in the control group, Japan shows a significant increase in CO2 emissions from household food consumption after the natural disaster. However, the westernization of the diet can be another long-term factor affecting climate change. Therefore, future research can involve analyzing the impact of CO2 emissions from household food consumption in multiple treated countries with multiple interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate scenario data set are indispensable for assessing future climate impacts. In this study, we developed statistically downscaled climate scenarios in Japan using modified bias correction method based on five general circulation models selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 to facilitate impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Modification of time window of the original correction method results in successful agreement with the observed seasonal change of variables in each grid. The original CMIP6 models have a relatively small bias compared to CMIP5 models. The advantage of CMIP6‐based bias‐corrected scenarios is its availability for multiple global circulation models, which covered wide uncertainty in CMIP6 ensembles, with various emissions scenarios for representative concentration pathway (RCP) including RCP4.5, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5. Several temperature‐related indices derived from the CMIP6‐based climate scenarios agreed well with observations. The number of extremely hot days and nights increased nonlinearly in the future with additional global warming. An increase in the global warming level from 1 to 2°C above the early 1900s would increase the probability of the number of extremely hot days per year exceeding the 2018 case by 4.1 times. The development of bias‐corrected climate scenarios facilitates the study of various climate impacts on a CMIP6 basis. Plain Language Summary: It is important to appropriately remove model biases since the impact of climate change does not always depend linearly on the climate input data. To facilitate impact assessment based on the latest data set from CMIP6, we developed bias‐corrected daily climate scenarios for eight variables using five models. The application of climate scenarios to heat mortality‐related indices showed that they reproduced historical values well and would be useful for future projections. Key Points: We developed a statistically downscaled climate scenario in Japan based on five general circulation models selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to facilitate impact assessmentsSimilar increasing trend was found for the temperature and precipitation between CMIP5‐ and CMIP6‐based climate scenarios, while CMIP6‐based scenario showed smaller biases for the underlying global circulation model. Addition of the moderate emission scenario for CMIP6‐based scenario enable us to consider wider range of the possible futureSeveral threshold‐based indices derived from the climate scenarios was evaluated. They agreed with the observed values for the historical period. For the future, we can discuss the possible future change of indices in comparison with the historical values. Development of the bias‐corrected climate scenarios has enabled the broader impact assessment community in Japan to study various climate impacts on a CMIP6 basis [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New heat flow data corrected for climate change over Northeastern Japan were obtained using the temperature profile of the borehole of the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network (Hi-net). The obtained spatial distribution of heat flow shows low heat flow on the forearc side, high heat flow along the Ou Backbone Range, and low heat flow in the plains on the back-arc side. However, the distribution is not clearly divided into high and low heat flow along the VF front; for example, the low heat flow extends from near the northern Kitakami Mountains on the forearc side to the Ou Backbone Range crossing the VF, while the high heat flow extends to the central Kitakami Mountains and Sendai plain on the forearc side. In addition, a crustal temperature structure model was developed that considers into account the presence of sedimentary layers, the temperature dependence of thermal conductivity, and differences in heat generation due to lithology. There is a good correlation between this temperature structure and the lower limit of the seismogenic layer, which is between 400 and 450 °C. Compared to previous studies, the crustal thermal structure calculation method assumed is a model whose estimated temperature distribution is sensitive to structural differences; however, a more accurate estimation of the temperature structure is possible if detailed structural information is available. On the other hand, it seems necessary to treat fluid behavior in more detail in areas of high heat flow. However, the estimation of crustal temperature structure, especially in regions with thick sedimentary layers, is considered an improvement over the previous study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dynamic and thermodynamic factors involved in future changes in local-scale short-term extreme summertime precipitation on the mesoscale and hourly time scale in Japan were examined using convection-permitting regional climate model simulations under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 scenario. The change in the dynamic component primarily contributes to the total change in vertically integrated moisture flux convergence over the analysis domain that is located off Okinawa Island, whereas the thermodynamic component is dominant over the analysis domain that is located off Kyushu Island. Differences in the amount of the dynamic and thermodynamic components are noticeable in these two domains. These results are explained by the difference in the vertical profiles of the convergence term, and hence the convergence itself between the two specific domains. A mesoscale low pressure system on the seasonal rain front—termed the baiu front—is a key factor underlying the difference in the magnitudes and vertical profiles of convergence between the two specific domains. In the vicinity of the domain off Okinawa Island, a mesoscale low pressure system on the baiu front enhances low-level convergence in the future climate when compared with the present climate. This atmospheric state is attributable to the location of the baiu front itself, which is located relatively southward in the future climate and is affected by the domain off Okinawa Island. In the domain where the dynamic component is dominant such as the domain off Okinawa Island, the total moisture flux convergence follows a super–Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lake water levels fluctuate due to both natural and anthropogenic influences. Climate change can alter precipitation, driving fluctuations in lake water levels. Extreme fluctuations can cause flooding, water shortages, and changes in lake water quality and ecosystems, as well as affecting fisheries and tourism. Despite the need to predict future water-level rises, especially in the context of climate change, long-term hydrological studies are scarce. Here, we analyzed 93 years of data from 1928 to 2020 to identify changes in the relationship between water level and precipitation in Lake Yamanaka, Japan. We found that the six-day maximum rise in water level for the same six-day maximum precipitation was significantly greater in the later period than in the earlier period; the difference increased with increasing precipitation. Particularly large increases in precipitation were sometimes caused by a single event or by multiple events occurring in succession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate extremes are expected to become more frequent and intense under future warming. In a globalized economy, outages of productive capital and infrastructure have the potential to spread around the world. In order to address those repercussions in the framework of a risk analysis or a resilience strategy, a disaster's indirect consequences on the economic supply network need to be understood. We developed a numerical model to simulate these indirect effects along global supply chains for time scales of days to months. This article is the first in a series of four, which describes the damage-propagation model. In this first paper, we describe the pure damage propagation within the network and focus on the fundamental propagation of supply failure between production sites including their input and output storages and transport-related time delay. Idealized examples are presented to illustrate the dynamic damage propagation. Further articles will extend the dynamics to include demand changes due to the perturbation in the supply, the possibility to extend production to compensate for production failure, price responses and adaptive changes in the economic supply network. The underlying global supply network is based on data from multi-regional input-output tables. Transportation times are derived from geographic distances. In the initial model version presented here, indirect production losses are caused by cascading effects. They are propagated within the network without significant reduction in loss (damage conservation). They can thus be observed within the different storages or they 'leak out' of the system through reduced consumption of the final consumer. As an example, we investigate the cascading behavior of losses for the machinery sector in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Natural disaster risk reduction (DRR) is becoming a more important function of protected area (PAs) for current and future global warming. However, biodiversity conservation and DRR have been handled separately and their interrelationship has not been explicitly addressed. This is mainly because, due of prevailing strategies and criteria for PA placement, a large proportion of PAs are currently located far from human‐occupied areas, and habitats in human‐occupied areas have been largely ignored as potential sites for conservation despite their high biodiversity. If intensely developed lowland areas with high flooding risk overlap with important sites for biodiversity conservation, it would be reasonable to try to harmonize biodiversity conservation and human development in human‐inhabited lowland areas. Here, we examined whether extant PAs can conserve macroinvertebrate and freshwater fish biodiversity and whether human‐inhabited lowland flood risk management sites might be suitable to designate as freshwater protected areas (FPAs). Location: Across Japan. Methods: We examined whether extant PAs can conserve macroinvertebrate and freshwater fish biodiversity and analysed the relationship between candidate sites for new FPAs and flood disaster risk and land use intensity at a national scale across Japan based on distribution data for 131 freshwater fish species and 1395 macroinvertebrate species. Results: We found that extant PAs overlapped with approximately 30% of conservation‐priority grid cells (1 km2) for both taxa. Particularly for red‐listed species, only one species of freshwater fish and three species of macroinvertebrate achieved the representation target within extant PAs. Moreover, more than 40% of candidate conservation‐priority grid cells were located in flood risk and human‐occupied areas for both taxa. Main conclusions: Floodplain conservation provides suitable habitat for many freshwater organisms and helps control floodwaters, so establishing new FPAs in areas with high flood risk could be a win‐win strategy for conserving freshwater biodiversity and enhancing ecosystem‐based DRR (eco‐DRR). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to advance our knowledge in the genesis of extreme climatic events with the dual aim of improving forecasting methods while clarifying the role played by anthropogenic warming. Wavelet analysis is used to highlight the role of coherent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies produced from short-period oceanic Rossby waves resonantly forced, with two case studies: a Marine Heatwave (MHW) that occurred in the northwestern Pacific with a strong climatic impact in Japan, and an extreme flood event that occurred in Germany. Ocean–atmosphere interactions are evidenced by decomposing state variables into period bands within the cross-wavelet power spectra, namely SST, Sea Surface Height (SSH), and the zonal and meridional modulated geostrophic currents as well as precipitation height, i.e., the thickness of the layer of water produced during a day, with regard to subtropical cyclones. The bands are chosen according to the different harmonic modes of the oceanic Rossby waves. In each period band, the joint analysis of the amplitude and the phase of the state variables allow the estimation of the regionalized intensity of anomalies versus their time lag in relation to the date of occurrence of the extreme event. Regarding MHWs in the northwestern Pacific, it is shown how a warm SST anomaly associated with the northward component of the wind resulting from the low-pression system induces an SST response to latent and sensible heat transfer where the latitudinal SST gradient is steep. The SST anomaly is then shifted to the north as the phase becomes homogenized. As for subtropical cyclones, extreme events are the culmination of exceptional circumstances, some of which are foreseeable due to their relatively long maturation time. This is particularly the case of ocean–atmosphere interactions leading to the homogenization of the phase of SST anomalies that can potentially contribute to the supply of low-pressure systems. The same goes for the coalescence of distinct low-pressure systems during cyclogenesis. Some avenues are developed with the aim of better understanding how anthropogenic warming can modify certain key mechanisms in the evolution of those dynamic systems leading to extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The frequency of large‐scale anomalous precipitation events associated with heavy precipitation has been increasing in Japan. However, it is unclear if the increase is due to anthropogenic warming or internal variability. Also, it is challenging to develop an objective methodology to identify anomalous events because of the large variety of anomalous precipitation cases. In this study, we applied a deep learning technique to objectively detect anomalous precipitation events in Japan for both observations and simulations using high‐resolution climate models. The results show that the observed increases in anomalous heavy precipitation events in Western Japan during 1977–2015 were not made only by internal variability but the increases in anthropogenic forcing played an important role. Such events will continue to increase in frequency this century. The increases are attributable to the increasing frequency of tropical cyclones and enhanced frontal rainbands near Japan. These results highlight the mitigation challenge posed by the increasing occurrence of unprecedented precipitation events in the future. Plain Language Summary: The increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events in Japan arose public interest regarding its relevance to ongoing climate changes. However, little was known about how much of the observed increasing trend over the last 40 years can be statistically distinguishable from internal natural variability and attributable to climatic changes induced by human activity. Moreover, it was unclear if any rare precipitation events, other than intense precipitation events, have been increased in Japan. Here, we developed a new deep learning technique—autoencoder—that objectively identifies rare precipitation events. Observations and climate simulations suggest that the frequency of rare precipitation events has been increased in Japan over the last 40 years and attributable to human‐induced climatic changes and will continue to increase in the future. Key Points: A new deep learning technique—autoencoder—was developed to objectively identify anomalous precipitation eventsFrequency of anomalous precipitation events has been increased in Japan and will continue to increase in the futureThe increases are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing through the increased tropical cyclones and enhanced frontal rainbands [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]