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Legal attendance requirements and national declarations establish a social contract between the State and its citizens for the provision of schooling. Any shortage of teachers compromises the ability of the State to meet its contractable obligations. The sovereignty of the social contract is complex as no single body has ultimate responsibility for housing the teaching workforce, but everyone has a stake in it. Empirically focused on the largest school system in the southern hemisphere, the New South Wales public education system (Australia), this paper demonstrates that 90.8% of teaching positions, over 50,000 full-time equivalent posts, are in Local Government Areas where the median rent and house sales price are severely unaffordable on a top-of-the-scale teacher salary. With the system requiring additional teachers to meet increasing enrolments, and housing costs outstripping salaries, many schools not traditionally considered difficult to staff are becoming, if not already, inaccessible for teachers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By the end of 2021, more than 168 million students across the globe had missed a year of face-to-face schooling due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In NSW, Australia, most students engaged in learning from home for eight weeks during 2020 and a further 14 weeks during 2021. This study provides robust empirical evidence on how two years of disruptions to schooling affected student learning. Drawing on matched data for 3,827 Year 3 and 4 students from 101 NSW government schools, this paper compares student achievement growth in mathematics and reading for 2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2021 (second year of the pandemic) student cohorts. While overall there was no significant difference between cohorts, when analysed by socio-educational advantage, we were surprised to find that students in the lowest band achieved approximately three months' additional growth in mathematics. Arguably, grave concerns about the potentially dire impact of COVID-19 on the learning of disadvantaged students were met by investments that made a difference. We argue that targeted funding and system-wide initiatives to support more equitable outcomes should remain a priority after the pandemic if Australia is to meet its aspirations for excellence and equity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

COVID-19 remains a significant public health problem in New South Wales, Australia. Although the NSW government is employing various control policies, more specific and compelling interventions are needed to control the spread of COVID-19. This paper presents a modified SEIR-X model based on a nonlinear ordinary differential equations system that considers the transmission routes from asymptomatic (Exposed) and symptomatic (Mild and Critical) individuals. The model is fitted to the corresponding cumulative number of cases in metropolitan and rural health districts of NSW reported by the Health Department and parameterised using the least-squares method. The basic reproduction number (R 0) , which measures the possible spread of COVID-19 in a population, is computed using the next generation operator method. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters reveals that the transmission rate had an enormous influence on R 0 , which may be an option for controlling this disease. Two time-dependent control strategies, namely preventive (it refers to effort at inhibiting the virus transmission and prevention of case development from Exposed, Mild, Critical, Non-hospitalised and Hospitalised population) and management (it refers to enhance the management of Non-hospitalised and Hospitalised individuals who are infected by COVID-19) measures, are considered to mitigate this disease's dynamics using Pontryagin's maximum principle. The most sensible control strategy is determined through the cost-effectiveness analysis for the metropolitan and rural health districts of NSW. Our findings suggest that of the single intervention strategies, enhanced preventive strategy is more cost-effective than management control strategy, as it promptly reduces COVID-19 cases in NSW. In addition, combining preventive and management interventions simultaneously is found to be the most cost-effective. Alternative policies can be implemented to control COVID-19 depending on the policymakers' decisions. Numerical simulations of the overall system are performed to demonstrate the theoretical outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes evidence-based scholarship to how teachers understand the value of Aboriginal student-focussed programmes and how discourses of Indigeneity appear to influence those views. Interviews with n = 22 teachers across n = 3 secondary school sites in New South Wales highlighted teachers' understanding of Aboriginal programmes as primarily contributing to students' behavioural and academic improvement. The interviewed teachers spoke positively about Aboriginal students' current academic achievements and prospects for their bright futures as graduates, albeit from within deficit and colour-blind discourses. Utilising Moodie's Decolonising Race Theory framework, teachers' juxtaposing beliefs resonate with existing decolonising education research which indicates a performativity of cultural inclusion through adherence to settler-colonial practices, while at the same time, an intellectual desire to move away from the legacy of Australia's contentious colonial past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Students from regional and remote areas remain significantly under-represented in higher education despite decades of equity policy designed to encourage participation. One explanation is that policy initiatives often overlook the realities in local rural contexts that can make higher education less desirable. Applying the theoretical lens of 'doxic' and 'habituated' aspirations, this paper analyzes interviews with 13 students, 10 parents/carers, and 4 teachers from one regional and one remote community in NSW, Australia. We document the emotional and material realities shaping young people's imagined futures in these communities, highlighting the commitment to a rural lifestyle in one, and the desire to escape the other community in decline. We argue that developing successful initiatives to address equitable participation in higher education requires a departure from hegemonic discourses of 'rurality' and greater recognition of and respect for the diverse needs and desires of regional and remote students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the English literacy outcomes of Aboriginal children are constantly measured and debated, attention falls away once they leave school, leading to limited data on English literacy rates among Australia's Aboriginal adults. This paper reports on an investigation into the prevalence of low literacy in adults in eight Aboriginal communities in NSW, Australia, drawing on both self-report data from household surveys and objective professional assessments using the Australian Core Skills Framework (ACSF). The research was conducted in partnership with a national Aboriginal organisation as part of a longitudinal study of the impact of improved adult literacy on the social determinants of health and social wellbeing. Of the participants who were measured to have low or very low English-language literacy level using ACSF, 51% had completed Year 10 or higher. This casts serious doubt on the value of school completion data which is used, for example, in Close the Gap reporting, as an accurate predictor of adult literacy rates. Results further show that while self-reported low literacy was prevalent in the population studied, there was also a significant overestimation, with adults who have completed years 10–11 nearly 30 times more likely to overestimate compared to people who only complete primary school. Given the well-known associations between adult literacy and a range of other outcomes including income, employment and health, national adult literacy surveys such as the Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies should aim to produce more comprehensive national, regional and local data on Aboriginal adult English literacy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores different goodness-of-fit (GOF) criteria's used in the various fields of science to compare candidate probability density functions (pdfs) to annual maximum temperature records and discusses their usefulness and drawbacks. The L-moment ratio diagram method is also proposed as alternative approach for the GOF of the pdfs. The advantage this method allows for an easy comparison of the fit of many pdfs for several stations on a single diagram. To gain knowledge about higher order moments (i.e. shape, skewness and kurtosis) of the station data set, plotting the position of a given temperature data set in L-moment ratio diagram space is prompt and effective and can provide a useful addition to the GOF criterion. Both the L-moment ratio diagrams and many GOF criteria are used on real data to assess the fit of the pdfs for temperature data in the state of New South Wales, Australia. The analysis of the L-moment ratio diagrams reveals that the generalized extreme value and normal distributions generally fit best the annual maximum temperature series. The other two- and three-parameter distributions also showed viable fits in some instances. Results obtained from L-moment diagrams, temperature frequency histograms, cumulative density plots and the simulation study are compared with those obtained from GOF statistics, and a good agreement is generally observed between all these approaches. In conclusion the L-moment ratio diagram can represent a simple, effective and efficient approach to be used as a complementary method along with the traditional GOF criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aspiration for higher education has been a focus of significant policy intervention in Australia for some time, with numerous large-scale research studies investigating the formation of aspiration amongst high school students. However, case studies in particular schools which might provide insights into the complexities and contradictions of aspirations for individual young people are scarce. This paper explores aspirations for particular futures from the perspectives of young women in a single-sex NSW government school in an area of historically lower HE participation. Rather than conventional interview-based methods where researchers ask young people to articulate their plans for the future, the study adopted creative arts-based methods which enabled students to engage with each other and a range of materials to produce multimodal 'aspiration artefacts' of their imagined futures. The method assemblage privileged imagination and embodied feelings, beyond the rational information-driven pedagogies that are promoted in widening participation policies. Our close readings of artefacts created by three Year 9 girls demonstrate that aspiration is a process that is relational, embodied, affectively and discursively constituted; and further, that this is inflected by gender, class and other positionalities in elusive and unanticipated ways. Arts-based methods allow us to tentatively trace the work of thinking–feeling–imagining that is entailed in developing and articulating aspirations for particular futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the application of a hybrid coastal morphodynamic model to forecast inter-annual beach change is discussed through the prediction of beach change in a high energy sandy beach over a period of 5 years. The modelling approach combines a 'reduced-physics' formulation with a data-driven approach through an inverse technique to form the hybrid coastal morphodynamic model. The beach considered for the demonstration of the model is the Narrabeen Beach, which is a dynamic sand beach located in New South Wales, Australia. Despite its simplicity, we find that the model is able to capture beach change at Narrabeen Beach at inter-annual timescales with root mean square error between measured and computed beach profiles less than 0.4 m on average. Even though the model is used to forecast inter-annual beach change in this study, its ability to predict beach change is not limited to that timescale but depends on the frequency of historic beach profile measurements available to determine key unknown parameters of the model. Also, the length of profile forecasts largely depends on the length of available historic measurements where longer data sets allow longer predictions within a range of beach behaviour contained in the observations. The ability of the model to reliably forecast coastal change at inter-annual and potentially at other timescales, and its high efficiency make it possible to be used in providing multiple simulations required for probabilistic coastal change forecasts which will be very useful for coastal management purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the potentially devastating consequences of flooding, it is crucial that uncertainties in the modelling process are quantified in flood simulations. In this paper, the impact of uncertainties in design losses on peak flow estimates is investigated. Simulations were carried out using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called RORB in four catchments along the east coast of New South Wales, Australia. Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate parameter uncertainty in design losses, associated with three loss models (initial loss-continuing loss, initial loss-proportional loss and soil water balance model). The results show that the uncertainty originating from each loss model differs and can be quite significant in some cases. The uncertainty in the initial loss-proportional loss model was found to be the highest, with estimates up to 2.2 times the peak flow, whilst the uncertainty in the soil water balance model was significantly less, with up to 60 % variability in peak flows for an annual exceedance probability of 0.02. Through applying Monte Carlo simulation a better understanding of the predicted flows is achieved, thus providing further support for planning and managing river systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]