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The paper investigates employment effects of falling exports from China to the EU and US during the great trade collapse of 2008-9. The paper uses fixed multiplier analysis to address employment effects resulting from input-output production linkages between trade and employment as well as from associated changes in household income and expenditures. Main findings are that substantial negative employment effects resulted in China from these linkages; that a large share of these employment effects were income-induced; and that industries in which women workers were disproportionately represented were harder hit through these linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horticultural exports are among the key drivers of economic development in Kenya. Their production either complements that of the Northern Hemisphere on a seasonal basis or provides more cost effective supply of vegetables, flowers and fruits throughout the year. The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors that determine horticultural exports of Kenya using a gravity model analysis. The paper reviews both the theoretical development and empirical application of the gravity model. The research findings will provide more knowledge on the potential ways in which the gravity model can be applied in geographical studies. The results of the study may also assist in trade policy formulation in order ensure that the country's horticultural export potential is fully exploited to promote national development. The study analysed data on the value of horticultural exports to the top 10 major trading partners with Kenya. These countries included the UK, and selected members of the European Union. The GDP and population of the two countries and the distance between their capital cities were used in the gravity model analysis. The colonial ties and use of common language were used as dummy variables in the model. Kenya was a former colony of the UK and both countries share a common language. The results reveal that the values of Kenya's horticultural exports are higher in the European Union. Great Britain's share of the horticultural exports by value is also significant. Therefore, Kenya should explore ways of improving its trade relations with the countries concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this ‘outsider’ status has been affecting Russia's export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995–2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may clarify the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for about 80% of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012-2016 and 2003-2007. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility of exchange rate appreciations and depreciations affecting macroeconomic variables has recently been rising in popularity in empirical international economics. Indeed, several theoretical studies have pointed out that exporters may behave diversely when facing different directions and sizes of exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical literature for the Brazilian case on this issue is still scarce. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate non-linearity on the flow of international trade of disaggregated Brazilian exports and imports for five major trading partners. For this purpose, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology is applied to traditional trade equations. The results reveal, among other things, that exchange rate non-linearity shows a better response to the models (in terms of statistical significance and expected signs of estimated elasticities) regarding Brazilian imports. Therefore, a conclusion concerning the exchange rate policy is that an incentive for exports resulting from an over-depreciated exchange rate may actually have a greater impact on imports by discouraging them, which is an outcome with possible policy implications. Moreover, the results have remarkable applications since exchange rate appreciations did not seem to decrease exports by a significant amount, as was argued to be the case after the period of overvaluated currency in the 2000s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the impact of the financial dependence, specifically during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, on the UK exports using monthly data over the period January 2002 to September 2011. We find that the UK exports are highly sensitive to the fluctuation in the cost of capital. The UK tends to export relatively less in the sectors which depend more on external finance than the sectors which are relatively less dependent on external finance. We find that these effects became stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. We also find that adverse credit conditions affect both the supply and demand sides of exports and play a significant role in determining the supply and demand for UK exports. We find that along with the financial conditions in the trading partners, the volume of GDP and capital labor ratio of the importing countries are the main factors in determining the demand for UK exports, whereas, the supply of UK exports is driven by financial conditions, GDP, and the capital-labor ratio of the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the gravity model of trade to investigate the effect of foreign aid on exports of aid recipients to donor countries. Most of the theoretical work emphasises the possible negative impact of aid on recipient countries' exports, primarily due to exchange rate appreciation, disregarding possible positive effects of aid in overcoming supply bottlenecks and promoting bilateral trade relations. Using non-stationary panel (cointegration) estimators to control for omitted variable and endogeneity bias, we find that the net effect of aid on recipient countries' exports is insignificant, both for our sample (of 123 countries) as a whole and for important regional sub-samples. This finding is in line with the small or insignificant macroeconomic impact of aid found in earlier studies and also suggests that exporters in recipient countries are not benefiting from improved trade relations with donors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence for an aspect of trade often disregarded in international trade research: countries’ sectoral export diversification. The results of our semiparametric empirical analysis show that, on average, countries do not specialize; on the contrary, they diversify. Our results are robust for different statistical indices used to measure trade specialization, for the level of sectoral aggregation, and for the level of smoothing in the nonparametric term associated with per capita income. Using a generalized additive model (GAM) with country-specific fixed effects it can be shown that, controlling for countries’ heterogeneity, sectoral export diversification increases with income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits Devereux et al. (J Int Econ 71:113-132 ) which studies trade and macroeconomic behaviour in a two-country model under a reference currency such as the dollar in US-China trade. The home country (e.g. the US) sets its export prices in dollars and so does the foreign country (e.g. China), so that the US has Local Currency Pricing (LCP) of its imports while China has Producer Currency Pricing (PCP) of its imports. We crucially modify their model by adding the large and by now well-known trade in intermediate goods. The addition implies that there is now exchange-rate pass-through via intermediate-goods markets into US import prices which thereby become to some degree PCP like China; accordingly monetary expansion in the US now produces not merely an expansion effect in both countries but also an expenditure-switching effect towards itself by lowering its exchange rate and so raising the relative US consumer prices of Chinese goods. This modification has implications for the effects of monetary policy in both countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of various factors on bilateral services trade, relative to that on bilateral goods trade. To accomplish this purpose, using the standard gravity model, we ran regressions on bilateral services trade and goods trade between 10 OECD member countries and other economies (including OECD member and nonmember countries) for the years 1999 and 2000. One main and interesting result is that services trade is better predicted by gravity equations than goods trade. Another interesting result is that there is a complementary relationship between goods exports and services imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decision support model (DSM) is presented and implemented in order to identify probable and realistic export opportunities for Greece. The aim of the model is to select those combinations of products and countries of destination (markets) that are attractive based on widely recognized criteria (such as country risk indicators, macroeconomic data, market shares, accessibility of destination country, degree of market concentration, etc.). The DSM consists of a filtering process during which the less attractive export opportunities are successively eliminated in order to focus on those markets that have the desired characteristics. International trade data at the HS six-digit level up to 2011 where used. The results indicate that there exist significant export opportunities for Greece. Export opportunities are listed and categorized according to criteria such as the market characteristics of the destination country and Greece's market share. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using transaction data from Belgium, we provide a descriptive comparison of trade in goods and trade in services at the firm level. From a static perspective, we find that firms trading services are fewer and export and import smaller values than those trading goods. This is because they trade fewer products, with less countries, making fewer transactions and these gaps are only partially counterbalanced by larger transaction values. Instead, firms trading both services and goods are even rarer, but they account for a substantial share of total trade. In the time dimension, services traders experience higher entry and exit rates and a lower survival probability. However, the surviving firms grow more rapidly than those trading goods thanks to an increase in the number of transactions per product-market. Finally, we observe that firms that trade only services add also goods in their export and import basket and vice versa. This is a further important growth channel for firms in international markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the relationship between export variety and economic development, using data on OECD countries between 1964 and 2003. We show that structural change in the world economy has a particular arrow of time leading to a growing variety of exports. Distinguishing between related variety (within sectors) and unrelated variety (variety between sectors), we also show that related variety stimulates growth instantaneously, while unrelated variety only promotes growth with a considerable time lag. This finding is in line with the evolutionary notions that economic development and international trade patterns are path dependent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is often suspected of taking over the extraordinary trade relationships that former colonies had within colonial empires. Besides preferential bilateral relationships built after independence, the two other potential determinants of the increase in trade with China are the improvement in China's export capacity and the natural redirection caused by independence. We investigate and quantify the three reasons that explain the level of former colonies' trade flows with China. Using structural gravity equations, we show that methodological issues can be largely responsible for displaying and estimating abnormally high trade levels between former colonies and China. Increased trade between these pairs of countries is the result of unilateral factors rather than more intense bilateral preferences. We then measure the reorientation of trade flows from former colonies' metropoles towards China and show that independence has produced the expected redistribution: trade flows with China would be 15 % lower, had former colonies not become independent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the impacts of exchange rate volatilities on real total export and all the subcategories of real total export by standard international trade code (SITC) from 0 to 9 of Malaysia to the United States (US). Exchange rate volatilities are computed by the moving standard deviation with order three [MSD(3)] and estimated by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, more specifically the GARCH(1,1) model. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach show insignificant impacts of exchange rate volatilities on real total export in the level but some significant impacts of exchange rate volatilities on the subcategories of real total export in the first differences. There are more cases when exchange rate volatility estimated by the GARCH(1,1) model are found to have significant impact on exports. The significant impacts of exchange rate volatilities are found for some sectors of exports and can be negative or positive. Exporters of Malaysia shall improve their products through innovation and high technology and also to further diversify their exports in order to reduce the impact of exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors examine Chinese-US trade flows over the 1994-2012 period, and find that, in line with the conventional wisdom, the value of China's exports to the US responds negatively to real renminbi (RMB) appreciation, while imports respond positively. Further, the combined price effects on exports and imports imply an increase in the real value of the RMB will reduce China's trade balance. The use of alternative exchange rate measures and data on different trade classifications yields additional insights. Firms more subject to market forces exhibit greater price sensitivity. The price elasticity is larger for ordinary exports than for processing exports. Finally, accounting for endogeneity and measurement error matters. Hence, purging the real exchange rate of the portion responding to policy, or using the deviation of the real exchange rate from the equilibrium level yields a stronger measured effect than when using the unadjusted bilateral exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little progress has been made to date in using the GATS framework to lock-in already implemented unilateral reforms, let alone in inducing new liberalization. The same is true for rule-making efforts. A number of potential explanations for the lack of traction are identified and assessed. These include limited feasibility of using the reciprocity mechanism to mobilize domestic export interests; less need for reciprocity to achieve global welfare improvements in policy; weaknesses in domestic regulatory capacity; and uncertainty/asymmetries regarding the magnitude and distribution of costs and benefits of policy reforms. All these factors play a role in reducing the scope for the GATS to be an effective instrument to help governments overcome domestic and international policy externalities. Changes in negotiating modalities and focus could help strengthen the relevance of the GATS as an instrument of multilateral cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rise of the global service economy, an understanding of the export competitiveness of nations is critical for managers seeking offshore export locations, and for government policy makers who wish to bolster the attractiveness of their nation as an exporting location. Services globalization reflected in the growth of outsourcing and offshoring - calls into question the role of human capital investment, whose effect in past studies has been mixed. Drawing on human capital theory, we developed three propositions and analyzed the effect of human capital investment, infrastructure, and the business environment on the export of services and goods from 25 countries from 1989 to 2003. Human capital did have a significant effect on the exports of goods and services. However, contrary to the expectations of human capital theory, human capital was not significantly more important for services exports than for goods exports. In line with expectations of human capital theory, human capital investment had a greater effect in emerging Asia than in developed countries. These findings have important implications for managers and future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Discusses the long-run relationships between bilateral exports and foreign direct investments (FDI). Influence of physical capital, low-skilled and high-skilled labor endowments on trade and multinational activities; Emphasis on the influence of determinants of economic relations between industrialized countries and developing countries; Differences in high-skilled-to-low-skilled labor ratio.

In Germany the cyclical upturn came to an end during the second half of 2000. Since then there has been no further increase in overall capacity utilization and recently it has even declined slightly. Although in industry incoming orders and output have continued to grow, there is notably less optimism on business prospects. Although economic growth in Germany has lost momentum to a greater extent than expected, the Institutes are sticking to their view that the economy will not experience an extended period of weak economic growth, not to mention a recession. Since the middle of last year the expansion of domestic demand has weakened perceptibly. In the wake of the oil-price shock and the associated loss of purchasing power, private consumption, in particular, has lost momentum. The effects of the weakening of global economic growth can now be expected to strengthen. As a result a marked decline in export growth seems likely, although there is no sign of an absolute contraction. As detailed in the report on the world economy, the signs are that the USA will avoid a recession and that the US economy will recover during the second half of the year.

The article focuses on German trade with the European Monetary Union (EMU). The foundation of the single market in the EU was expected at the time to give a strong boost to trade between the member countries, and this expectation has been largely fulfilled. In nominal terms Germany increased its exports to the other EMU countries by 73% between 1993 and 2000. Trade between the euro zone and non-EMU countries expanded at a similar rate to intra-EMU trade during this period, suggesting that the growth in trade between EMU countries did not exceed the general growth in world trade. However, it must be noted that many eastern European countries have only recently been integrated into the world market and that the growth in trade with these countries was thus particularly dynamic. Germany is the most important trading partner within the euro zone, accounting for over a fifth of all intra-EMU trade. In the second half of the 1990s, the nominal growth in German exports to other EMU countries was lower than the growth in intra-trade between the rest of the EMU countries.

This study conducts an examination of the North American Free Trade Agreement's (NAFTA) impact on California's export levels to Mexico and Canada while holding constant other variables that explain a state's exports to other nations, such as exchange rates and relative income growth. Transformed weighted least squares equations over a sample period between 1988 and 1997 are used to show that California's exports to Canada were not significantly affected by NAFTA, while exports to Mexico increased, on average, a statistically significant 16.11 percent between 1994 and 1997. The model also suggests that NAFTA's impact on California's exports to Mexico has increased over time from a 10.0 percent increase in 1994 to a 21.8 percent increase by 1997. (JEL F13, F14) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the relationship between trade and diplomacy. Political dimension of international trade relations; Indicators for the diplomatic climate and the diplomatic activity of 40 countries from 1982-1985; Influence of the diplomatic climate in export and import equations.