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The idea of predicting earthquakes by continuously monitoring temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium was suggested by Beaumont and Berger in 1974. However, it became possible to implement the idea only recently. This possibility has arisen due to the deployment of Global Seismic Network (GSN), which collects the data on tidal tilts and gravity in the epicenters of strong earthquakes before and after the strongest events. In this paper, we present the results of model analytical and numerical calculations of the elastic displacements of the Earth's surface caused by the earthquakes and their preparatory processes. The analytical calculations are limited to the model of a uniform elastic halfspace; the numerical calculations, in addition to this model, also cover the models with radially heterogeneous distributions of elastic moduli in the crust and in the upper mantle, which are determined by the PREM model. We describe the results of modeling temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the vicinity of the source of a catastrophic earthquake. The model of seismic source is specified by the length and the orientations of the fault plane and by the value of the discontinuity in the tangential component of the displacement vector on the opposite sides of the fault. The model is based on the GPS data on the horizontal and vertical displacements of the Earth's surface. We suggest the method for determining temporal changes in the tidal response of the medium in the seismically active regions. This method improves the sensitivity and time resolution of the standard techniques of sliding-window analysis by more than an order of magnitude. The comparative analysis of temporal variations in the tidal response of the medium in the zones of the magnitude 9 earthquake in Japan (March 9, 2011) illustrates the described approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper addresses the interpretation of the location, type, and size of the source for the earth-quake of March 11, 2011. The source-a subvertical reverse fault trending in the azimuth of ∼25° along the island arc-is located in the middle part of the Pacific slope of Honshu Island, between 38°-38.5°N and 35.5°N. The length of the source, about 350 km, approximately corresponds to a magnitude ∼8.7 earthquake. In the north, the source is bounded by a sublatitudinal reverse fault, which generated an earthquake with magnitude 7.2-7.5 in 1978. On this segment of the Pacific slope of Honshu Island, there are probably another one or a few other large seismic sources, which are still latent. They are longitudinal reverse faults, which are comparable in scale with the source of the March, 2011 earthquake. The recurrence period of the maximal earthquakes in such sources is more than 1000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current paper empirically addresses risk aversion of households and firms toward earthquake risks using a hazard map compiled for the entire region by the Tokyo metropolitan government in 1998. It finds strong evidence for the impact of earthquake risks on land pricing; land prices have been substantially lower in risky areas than in safe areas. That impact became more evident in the 1990s than in the 1980s, indicating that households and firms were becoming more sensitive to earthquake risks. In addition, this paper carefully examines the consistency of the estimated magnitude of earthquake risk premiums within a framework of the expected utility hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) unified seismic catalog has been widely used for research and disaster prevention purposes for more than 20 years. Since the introduction in April 2016 of an improved method of automatic hypocenter determinations (PF method), the number of detected earthquakes has almost doubled due to a decrease in the completeness magnitude around the Tohoku region, where seismicity has been very active in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Automatically processed hypocenters of small events, accepted without manual modification, now make up approximately 70% of new events in the JMA unified catalog. In this paper, we show that the introduction of automated processing did not systematically bias the quality of the JMA unified catalog. Approximately 90% of automatically processed hypocenters were less than 1 km from their manually reviewed locations in inland and shallow areas. We also considered the use of automated event characterization in real-time monitoring of earthquake sequences using the example of the April 2016 Kumamoto earthquake sequence, when the PF method could have supplied the catalog with about 70,000 events in real time over the course of 2 months. We show that the PF method is capable of monitoring the migration or expansion of the hypocentral distribution and can support statistical analyses such as variations of the b-value distribution. Further improvements in automatic hypocenter determination will contribute to a better understanding of seismicity as well as rapid risk assessment, especially in cases of swarms and aftershocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  This paper presents the current state of integrated simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster. This simulation takes advantage of the macro–micro analysis method; this method estimates an earthquake’s strong motion with high spatial and temporal resolution, using the bounding medium theory to obtain optimistic and pessimistic estimates of expected strong motion distribution and the singular perturbation expansion that results in an efficient multi-scale analysis. Integrated earthquake simulation calculates seismic responses for all structures in a target area, inputting simulated strong ground motion to a structure analysis method that is plugged into the system by means of a wrapper; a suitable method, linear or nonlinear, is chosen depending on the type of the structure. The results of all simulations are visualized so that residences and government officials can share a common recognition of earthquake hazard and disaster. Two examples of this integrated earthquake simulations are presented; one is made by plugging nonlinear structure analysis methods into the system, and the other is made for an actual city, the computer model of which is constructed with the help of available geographical information systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists from all over the world try to incorporate multi-disciplinary precursors to forecast the earthquake on a short-term basis. The authors here have analyzed outgoing longwave radiations acquired from polar-orbiting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA) satellites and long-period infrasound waves recorded by the ground observatories in China prior to the recent Bonin Islands, Japan region earthquake which occurred on May 30, 2015 with the magnitude of 7.8. The anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) was observed on May 15, 2015, and was recorded by 'NOAA 18' satellite during its 'night pass.' Similarly, an abnormal infrasound spike was recorded at the Beijing station on May 17, 2015. The delay in observing anomalous infrasound waves compared to the OLR anomaly is due to these low-frequency waves traveling at low speed with the velocity range of 10-15 m/s. From the analysis of the results, it can be inferred that there is a substantial relation between parameters like OLR and infrasound waves; hence, the authors conclude that it is possible to forecast the earthquake on a short-term basis with reasonable accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since seismicity in Japan is fairly high, Japanese interest in historical seismicity can be traced back to the nineth century, only a few centuries after the formation of the ancient ruling state. A 1000 years later, 2 years earlier than the modern seismological society was founded, the research on historical seismology started in Japan in 1878. By the accumulation for the recent 140 years, the present Japanese seismologists can read many historical materials without reading cursive scripts. We have a convenient access to the historical information related to earthquakes, in the modern characters of 27,759 pages. We now have 214 epicenters of historical earthquakes from 599 ad to 1872. Among them, 134 events in the early modern period were assigned hypocentral depths and proper magnitudes. The intensity data of 8700 places by those events were estimated. These precise intensity data enabled us to compare the detailed source areas of pairs of repeated historical earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake with the 1923 Kanto earthquake, and the 1707 Hoei earthquake with the summation of the 1854 Ansei Tokai and Ansei Nankai earthquakes. It is revealed that the focal area of the former larger event cannot completely include those of the latter smaller earthquakes, although those were believed to be typical sets of characteristic interplate earthquakes at the Sagami trough and at the Nankai trough. Research on historical earthquakes is very important to assess the seismic hazard in the future. We still have one-fifth events of the early modern period to be analyzed in detail. The compilation of places experienced high intensities in the modern events is also necessary. For the ancient and medieval periods, many equivocal events are still left. The further advance of the interdisciplinary research on historical seismology is necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake occurred on April 16, 2016, in the western part of Kyushu, at a depth of 12 km, on an active strike-slip fault. Here, we report on a relatively widespread activation of small remote earthquakes, which occurred as far as Hokkaido, detected by analyzing the continuous waveform data recorded at seismic stations all over Japan. Such relatively widespread remote seismicity activation, following a large inland earthquake, has not been reported before for Japan. Our analysis demonstrates that the remote events were triggered dynamically, by the passage of the surface waves from the Kumamoto earthquake. Most of the remotely triggered events in the Tohoku and Hokkaido regions, as well as close to Izu Peninsula, occur at or close to volcanoes, which suggests that the excitation of crustal fluids, by the passage of Rayleigh waves, played an important triggering role. Nevertheless, remote activation in other regions, like Noto Peninsula, occurred away from volcanoes. The relatively large-amplitude Love waves, enhanced by a source directivity effect during the Kumamoto earthquake, may have triggered seismicity on local active faults. The dynamic stresses in the areas where remote activation has been observed range from several kPa to tens of kPa, the thresholds being lower than in previous dynamic triggering cases for Japan; this might relate to a change in the crustal conditions following the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, in particular at volcanoes in NE Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a method for simulating the ground motion of megathrust earthquakes at periods of approximately 2 s and longer was validated by using the characterized source model combined with multi-scale spatial heterogeneity. Source models for the M 8.3, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake were constructed, and ground motion simulations were conducted to test their performance. First, a characterized source model was generated based on a source model obtained from waveform inversion analysis. Then, multi-scale heterogeneity was added to the spatial distribution of several source parameters to yield a heterogeneous source model. An investigation of the Fourier spectra and 5 % damped velocity response spectra of the simulated and observed ground motions demonstrated that adding multi-scale heterogeneity to the spatial distributions of the slip, rupture velocity, and rake angle of the characterized source model is an effective method for constructing a source model that explains the ground motion at periods of 2-20 s. It was also revealed how the complexity of the parameters affects the resulting ground motion. The complexity of the rupture velocity had the largest influence among the three parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation are performed in the Niigata area, Japan, for the 2007 Mw 6.6 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake at low frequencies. We test three 3D structural models built independently in various studies. First aftershock simulations are carried out. The model based on 3D tomography yields correct body waves in the near field, but later phases are imperfectly reproduced due to the lack of shallow sediment layers; other models based on various 1D/2D profiles and geological interpretation provide good site responses but generate seismic phases that may be shifted from those actually observed. Next, for the mainshock simulations, we adopt two different finite source models that differ in the near-field ground motion, especially above the fault plane (but under the sea) and then along the coastline. Each model is found to be calibrated differently for the given stations. For engineering purposes, the variations observed in simulated ground motion are significant, but for seismological purposes, additional parameter calibrations would be possible for such a complex 3D case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the development of a distinct later phase observed at stations near the Japan Trench associated with shallow, outer-rise earthquakes off the coast of Sanriku, northern Japan based on the analysis of three-component broadband seismograms and FDM simulations of seismic wave propagation using a heterogeneous structural model of the Japan Trench subduction zone. Snapshots of seismic wave propagation obtained through these simulations clearly demonstrate the complicated seismic wavefield constructed by a coupling of the ocean acoustic waves and the Rayleigh waves propagating within seawater and below the sea bottom by multiple reflections associated with shallow subduction zone earthquakes. We demonstrated that the conversion to the Rayleigh wave from the coupled ocean acoustic waves and the Rayleigh wave as they propagate upward along the slope of seafloor near the coast is the primary cause of the arrival of the distinct later phase at the station near the coast. Through a sequence of simulations using different structural models of the Japan Trench subduction zone, we determined that the thick layer of seawater along the trench and the suddenly rising sea bottom onshore of the Japanese island are the major causes of the distinct later phase. The results of the present study indicate that for realistic modeling of seismic wave propagation from the subduction zone earthquakes, a high-resolution bathymetry model is very crucial, although most current simulations do not include a water column in their simulation models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first reports on a slow earthquake were for an event in the Izu peninsula, Japan, on an intraplate, seismically active fault. Since then, many slow earthquakes have been detected. It has been suggested that the slow events may trigger ordinary earthquakes (in a context supported by numerical modelling), but their broader significance in terms of earthquake occurrence remains unclear. Triggering of earthquakes has received much attention: strain diffusion from large regional earthquakes has been shown to influence large earthquake activity, and earthquakes may be triggered during the passage of teleseismic waves, a phenomenon now recognized as being common. Here we show that, in eastern Taiwan, slow earthquakes can be triggered by typhoons. We model the largest of these earthquakes as repeated episodes of slow slip on a reverse fault just under land and dipping to the west; the characteristics of all events are sufficiently similar that they can be modelled with minor variations of the model parameters. Lower pressure results in a very small unclamping of the fault that must be close to the failure condition for the typhoon to act as a trigger. This area experiences very high compressional deformation but has a paucity of large earthquakes; repeating slow events may be segmenting the stressed area and thus inhibiting large earthquakes, which require a long, continuous seismic rupture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong ground motions recorded in central Tokyo during the 1944 Tonankai Mw8.1 earthquake occurring in the Nankai Trough demonstrate significant developments of very large (>10 cm) and prolonged (>10 min) shaking of long-period (T > 10–12 s) ground motions in the basin of Tokyo located over 400 km from the epicenter. In order to understand the process by which such long-period ground motions developed in central Tokyo and to mitigate possible future disasters arising from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough, we analyzed waveform data from a dense nation wide strong-motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) deployed across Japan for the recent SE Off-Kii Peninsula (Mw 7.4) earthquake of 5 September 2004 that occurred in the Nankai Trough. The observational data and a corresponding computer simulation for the earthquake clearly demonstrate that such long-period ground motion is primarily developed as the wave propagating along the Nankai Trough due to the amplification and directional guidance of long-period surface waves within a thick sedimentary layer overlaid upon the shallowly descending Philippine Sea Plate below the Japanese Island. Then the significant resonance of the seismic waves within the thick cover of sedimentary rocks of the Kanto Basin developed large and prolonged long-period motions in the center of Tokyo. The simulation results and observed seismograms are in good agreement in terms of the main features of the long-period ground motions. Accordingly, we consider that the simulation model is capable of predicting the long-period ground motions that are expected to occur during future Nankai Trough M 8 earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the focal mechanism solutions and spatial distributions of 100 intermediate-depth earthquakes are examined and discussed. These earthquakes occurred from 1985 to 1993 mostly in the upper and lower planes of the double seismic zone beneath the southeastern part of Hokkaido. The focal-mechanism solutions along with the spatial distribution of their epicenters as a function of depth and the minimum- and maximum-compressive stress directions confirm the following essential features; A double-planed deep seismic zone between the depths from 60 to 120 km has been clearly revealed in this region and the number of earthquakes located in the upper plane are less than those for the lower one. Low-angle thrust fault mechanism is dominant to a depth of about 55–60 km in the zone. At depths deeper than about 60 km focal mechanism solutions are mostly characterized by down-dip extension type or down-dip compression type in both lower and upper planes of the zone. Most of the earthquakes deeper than 60 km have dip-slip components and some of the solutions have significant strike-slip components, as well. Although the down-dip extensional-type events are dominant, seven events that are located on the lower plane are constrained as down-dip compression mechanism. The T axes of earthquake focal mechanisms on the lower plane show extension at about N40°E and N35°W, and the dip-angle between 25° and 70°, almost coincide with the dip of the subducting Pacific Plate in this region. We also investigate the statistical features of the stress directions of the earthquakes occurring both on the lower and upper plane after converting all the events onto the plane having the same strike and dip angle as the subducting lithosphere in the region. Seventy-two percent of the minimum compressive stress directions are oriented mainly in the NS or NNE- SSW directions (within 45° of the dip direction) at the plate surface of the lower plane and are almost parallel to the dip of the local slab in this region. The number of earthquakes located in the upper plane is less than that for the lower one. Those which occurred on the upper plane show various types of mechanism solutions. Weak systematic orientation is found in the direction distribution of stress in the upper plane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]