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The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) is an important strategic area in China. However, frequent extreme precipitation events have caused great economic losses and human casualties in this region. In this article, we explore the spatial and temporal links between extreme precipitation events and Sunspot Number (SSN), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in this important economic belt. According to the research findings, all of the extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) except for consecutive dry days (CDD) and consecutive wet days (CWD) showed an upward trend in the YREB over the 59 years. The spatial distributions of very wet days (R95p), extremely wet days (R99p), max 1-day precipitation amount (Rx1day) and max 5-day precipitation amount (Rx5day) had similar distribution patterns, showing decreasing trends from east to west. The EPIs generally had a 2–4-year band, suggesting stronger and more elusive changes. The wavelet coherence (WTC) spectra suggested that SSN, ENSO, AO, and PDO have different effects on extreme precipitation events during different time periods. Before 1985, the SSN, ENSO, AO, PDO and extreme precipitation events shared similar oscillation periods, but after 1985, their oscillation periods were no longer consistent with each other. In addition, solar activity and the AO mainly had negative correlations with extreme precipitation events, while the ENSO and PDO had predominantly positive correlations with the EPIs. This paper provides a reference for national economic strategic planning and natural resource management in the YREB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in patterns of meteorological parameters, like precipitations, temperature, wind, etc., are causing significant increases in various extreme events. And these extreme events, i.e., floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, etc., lead to a shortage of water resources, crop failures, wildfires, and economic losses. However, Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most important tools for quantifying climate change. Therefore, we selected 20 different GCMs of precipitation in our research, as the frequency of extreme events, like drought and flood, is highly related to changes in precipitation patterns. However, this research introduced a new weighting scheme — MCFSAWS-Ensemble: Monte Carlo Feature Selection Adaptive Weighting Scheme to Ensemble multiple GCMs, whereas, Monte Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) is one of the most popular algorithms for discovering important variables. However, the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is mainly based on two sources. Initially, it evaluates the prior performance of each GCM model to define their relative importance using MCFS. Then, it computes value by value difference between the observed and simulated model. In addition, the application of this paper is based on the monthly time series data of precipitation in the Tibet Plateau region of China. In addition, we used twenty GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze the implications of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble. Further, we compared the performance of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble scheme with Simple Model Averaging (SMA) through Mean Average Error (MAE) and correlation statistics. The results of this research indicate that the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is more accurate than the SMA approach. Consequently, we recommend the use of advanced machine learning algorithms such as MCFS for making accurate multi-model ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global temperature has been increasing resulting in climate change. This negatively impacts planetary health that disproportionately affects the most vulnerable among us, especially children. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, flooding, and heatwaves, are becoming more frequent and severe, posing a significant threat to our patients' health, safety, and security. Concurrently, shifts in environmental exposures, including air pollution, allergens, pathogenic vectors, and microplastics, further exacerbate the risks faced by children. In this paper, we provide an overview of pediatric illnesses that are becoming more prevalent and severe because of extreme weather events, global temperature increases, and shifts in environmental exposures. As members of pediatric health care teams, it is crucial for pediatric radiologists to be knowledgeable about the impacts of climate change on our patients, and continue to advocate for safe, healthier environments for our patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is broad consensus that cyanobacterial blooms will increase in severity, frequency, and duration under future climate scenarios, particularly in the North African region, where there is a strong climatic influence from the Sahara Desert. These climate changes may potentially favor certain genera of cyanobacteria over others. This paper presents data on the dynamic changes of harmful cyanobacterial blooms (Microcystis, Planktothrix, Aphanizomenon, Dolichospermum, Pseudanabaena, and Cylindrospermum) and environmental factors sampled monthly during 3 years (2005, 2010, and 2015), in four stations of Lake Oubeira, which is the largest freshwater lake in Algeria (surface 23 km2, average depth 2 m). The results showed significant discrepancies among the three periods in both abundance and cyanobacteria community composition. The main genus of cyanobacteria was Microcystis, which usually formed a dense bloom from June to October. Various limnological variables, including pH, NH4-N, PO4-P, chlorophyll-a, and suspended solids, increased significantly over the study period, while water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and NO3-N maintained relatively stable. Surprisingly, although PO4-P and NH4-N concentrations increased, there was a clear downward trend in the abundance of Aphanizomenon and Planktothrix over time, while the opposite occurred with respect to Microcystis, Dolichospermum, Pseudanabaena, and Cylindrospermum. Suspended solids and pH were the main factors explaining the observed trend. The results of this study may help better understand the bloom cycle of cyanobacteria and how the cyanobacterial community responds to environmental changes in the Mediterranean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are many types of atmospheric heat engines in land-air systems. The accurate definition, calculation and interpretation of the efficiency of atmospheric heat engines are key to understanding energy transfer and transformation of land-air systems. The atmosphere over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) in summer can be regarded as a positive heat engine. The study of the heat engine efficiency is helpful to better understand land-air interaction and thermal-dynamic processes on the QTP. It also provides a new perspective to explain the impact of the QTP on the climate of China, East Asia and even the world. In this paper, we used MOD08 and ERA5 reanalysis data to calculate the atmospheric heat engine efficiency, surface heat source and atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer (May to September) from 2000 to 2020. The average atmospheric heat engine efficiency on the QTP in summer from 2000 to 2020 varies between 1.2% and 1.5%, which is less than 1.6%; the heat engine efficiency in summer is higher than that in June, July and August; the Qaidam Basin is the region with the highest atmospheric heat engine efficiency, followed by the western QTP. The mean surface heat source on the QTP in summer from 2000 to 2020 is 96.0 W m−2, the atmospheric heat source is 90.7 W m−2, and the release of precipitation condensation latent heat is the most important component of the atmospheric heat source on the QTP in summer. There is a strong and significant positive correlation between the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and the surface heat source on the QTP in summer. The precipitation con densation latent heat is the most important component of the atmospheric heat source in summer and can reflect the precipitation process. There is a strong and significant negative correlation between the atmospheric heat engine efficiency and the atmo spheric heat source on the QTP in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concurrent compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) amplified more damange on the ecosystems and human society than individual extremes. Under climate change, compound dry and hot events become more frequent on a global scale. This paper proposes a mathematical method to quantitatively attribute changes of CDHEs to changes of precipitation, change in temperature and change in the dependence between precipitation and temperature. The attribution is achieved by formulating the total differential equation of the return period of CDHEs among Meta-gaussian model. A case study of China is devised based on monthly precipitation and temperature data during the period from 1921 to 2020 for 80 major river basins. It is found that temperature is the main driving factor of increases in CDHEs for 49 major river basins in China, except for the upper and middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In West China, precipitation changes drove the increase in CDHEs in 18 river basins (23%), particularly in parts of North Xinjiang, Qinghai and Gansu. On the other hand, dependence between precipitation and temperature dominated changes of CDHEs in 13 river basins (16%) of China with other factors, including parts of South China, East China and Northwestern China. Furthermore, changes in both the mean and spread of precipitation and temperature can also contribute to changes in CDHEs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil refineries are among industrial installations that are vulnerable to climate extreme events, whose frequency and intensity have been increasing over the last decades. Building resilience in resources to withstand climate-related hazards and to recover fast at low human and material cost, for changing climate conditions, is required. In this paper, we present an action research effort for the design of a viable decentralized climate-resilience-providing virtual organization in an oil refinery in Greece using the Viable System Model. The VIPLAN method was employed for the methodological design of a distributed Climate Resilience Providing Organisation for the case of a refinery facility in Greece. The paper presents the process and the results of this effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events. The paper highlights challenges for drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level and elaborates on how improved understanding of local practitioners to plan for climate change adaptation can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prokaryotic cell storage compound ploy-β-hydroxybutyrate (PHB) has been considered as prebiotics that can be applied in aquaculture. In this paper, the dietary effect of a PHB-accumulating Halomonas strain (HM·PHB) identified from our previous work were studied in Artemia under gnotobiotic and xenic culture conditions, in comparison of Halomonas without PHB accumulation (HM) and microalgae Isochrysis (ISO) feeding. Under gnotobiotic condition, both HM·PHB and HM served as sole food supporting Artemia survival. Although both HM·PHB and HM feeding had no significant difference on Artemia survival percentage (P>0.05), HM·PHB significantly improved their resistance against Vibrio anguillarum challenge (P<0.05). Mass Artemia culture were further performed in xenic condition. Compared to ISO, HM·PHB feeding protected Artemia against V. anguillarum challenge (P<0.05), and HM·PHB and HM feeding resulted in increased T-AOC, pepsin, T-SOD and CAT activities (P<0.05). High throughput sequencing analysis showed that HM·PHB and HM feeding resulted in a lower Artemia gut microbial diversity (P<0.05), and modified the gut microbial community by remarkably reducing the Vibrio proportion. The outcome of the paper confirmed the beneficial effect of Halomonas-PHB in Artemia culture, which supports the use of Halomonas-PHB in the production of bio-secured live feed Artemia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of the present paper is to examine a selection of macro- and micro-linguistic features (at text and sentence/word level respectively) of the South-African Green Paper 'National Climate Change Response' from 2010. Our overarching assumption is that the Green Paper needs to handle competing interests, beliefs and voices in a narrative structure favouring specific courses of action. How does the government portray the complex natural and societal phenomenon of climate change, and how does it take into account the many and often competing national and international views and interests which come into play? Our hypothesis is that the Green Paper constructs a narrative and that it relates to a number of voices other than that of the authors, through linguistic markers of polyphony, such as negation, sentence connectives, adverbs and reported speech. Thus we propose a narrative and polyphonic analysis of the Green Paper, at the level of the text as a whole (macro-level) but also with attention to linguistic constructions of polyphony or 'multi-voicedness' (micro-level). We find that the narrative-polyphonic properties of the Green Paper contribute to a strategy for building consensus on climate change policy. The South African government assumes the role of main hero in its own climate change 'story', and there are subtle forms of interaction with different and typically non-identified voices, such as concessive constructions and presuppositions. These results support our overarching interpretation of the whole document as striving to impose a South African consensus on the issue of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract  Marine seismic data has been collected for several decades in both academia and industry. Early single channel acquisitions were often, if at all, recorded on magnetic media that are generally no longer supported for replay. Although seismic data over 10 years old has limited quality compared to modern acquisition, thousands of survey km of hard copy records remains world wide in areas with no recent coverage. In addition, many processed multi-channel datasets are now not available as digital files for a variety of reasons. Rising interest in continental margin geology in response to climate change priorities and the UNCLOS submission requirements of maritime states has created a demand to re-use these older records where the cost of new or re-acquisition is not pragmatic. Through creating digital SEG-Y files from images of these records they can be reprocessed and re-interpreted. This paper investigates the practicalities of paper seismic record re-use and measures the performance of a typical conversion option as an indicator of the validity of the concept. Examples of applications of the process illustrate what can be achieved and the limitations that exist so that users can make an informed choice of whether to resurrect their information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1960 and 2011, world population grew from 3 to 7 billion, an unprecedented rate of population growth that will never be seen again. In spite of the addition of 4 billion people in just 51 years, the world experienced some of the biggest improvements in living standards in human history, with declines in poverty and improvements in food production per capita in all major regions. This paper looks at the period since 2011, during which the world added another billion people. Progress has continued in many areas, with food production continuing to grow faster than population and with continued declines in the proportion of the population in poverty in all regions. Not all trends are positive, however. Progress in food production has slowed, with recent declines in food production per capita in Africa. Prices of food and other commodities have recently hit historic highs. Climate change is a challenge to progress in combatting hunger and poverty, especially in Africa. While climate change will make it harder to meet the needs of Africa’s continued population growth in this century, the paper shows that the countries with the highest population growth account for a very small share of global CO2 emissions. The record of the last six decades suggests that progress can be made to reduce poverty and hunger, even while world population continues to grow, but continued progress will require solutions to climate change that mainly target high-income and middle-income countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Henan Province is the birthplace of Chinese civilization and one of the earliest human settlements, which means that the area has an important national cultural heritage. Traditional villages are an important facet of this cultural heritage, and studying their spatiotemporal characteristics in different periods has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and protection of cultural heritage in the region. This paper takes the traditional villages of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province that were formed before 1919 as the research object. Information on the ancient river was obtained through a literature search as well as via field research, and the important tributaries of the Yellow River in different periods were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse and other methods were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traditional villages. The factors that influenced the evolution of traditional villages were explored in depth by combining changes in the course of the river and water conservancy projects. The results show that the formation of traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province has experienced a historical track of growth, contraction, growth and prosperity and stability. The traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province generally show a clustered pattern, forming a dense concentration of traditional villages in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The center of gravity shows a migration trend from southeast to northwest. In terms of influencing factors, the spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between villages and their distance to water is closely related to climatic fluctuations, changes in channel, water conservancy projects and social and cultural factors. This paper deepens our understanding of the relationship between traditional village evolution and watersheds by improving the consistency between village spatial distribution and historical geography and provides a useful theoretical reference for the sustainable development of China's traditional villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Today, data storage technology is also gradually improving. Various industries can store massive amounts of data for analysis. The global climate change and the bad ecology led to frequent occurrence of natural disasters. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an effective emergency materials distribution system. The neural network model is used to calculate and the optimal emergency distribution route is analyzed according to the historical information and the data. Considering backpropagation, this paper further disposing a method to further improve the calculation of neural network algorithm. From the perspective of structural parameters of neural network algorithms, this paper uses genetic algorithms to construct predictions, and combines the actual purpose of material distribution after disasters. Considering the capacity constraints of distribution centers, time constraints, material needs of disaster relief points and different means of transportation, a dual-objective path planning with multiple distribution centers and multiple disaster relief points with the shortest overall delivery time and lowest overall delivery cost is constructed. By establishing an emergency material distribution system, it can maximize the prompt and accurate delivery after a natural disaster occurs, and solves the urgent needs of the people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hygroscopic properties of wood have been utilized in adaptive façades to respond to variation in humidity levels. Shape-shifting materials have been developed to replace mechanical actuators that respond to climatic variation with zero-energy consumption. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature on the use of hygromorphic behaviour in developing adaptive architectural façades, with the primary focus of identifying the venues of implementation of hygroscopic actuation in adaptive facades. The paper triangulates the intersection between hygroscopic design parameters with manufacturing strategies and their application as a passive motion mechanism in adaptive facades. This review focuses on state-of-the-art experimental work in hygroscopic design, with specific interest in manufacturing methods of hygromorphic adaptive façades, response motion behaviour evaluation and tracking, analysis of the current applications of hygromorphic design in real weather conditions, and performance prediction. Results reveal that most of the studied papers focus on the response behaviour of programmable materials to variation in moisture content and the implementation of hygroscopic design in adaptive façades. From the literature analysis, it was shown that programming the response behaviour of hygroscopic materials mainly takes place through variation in fabrication methods, followed by passive layer configurations, which act as actuators that are controlled by differences in layer properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Article 7 of the Paris Agreement recognizes that adaptation is a 'global challenge faced by all with local, regional and international dimensions.' It further establishes the 'global goal on adaptation focusing on enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change, with a view to contributing to sustainable development.' However, the lack of international cooperation between the global north and global south challenge the formulation and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies. This paper brings in the concept of global public goods (GPGs) to the lexicon of climate adaptation and highlights that adverse impacts of climate change such as climate-induced global migration are global public bad. Hence, the measures taken to respond to such impacts, which consequently enhance the resilience of affected countries, make them more adaptive to those adverse impacts, and deliver common values of universal character, should be construed as the global public good. The paper argues that that the idea of GPGs with its universality offers a normative and practical foundation for understanding, addressing, and strengthening the international community's climate adaptation actions and cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of a detailed review of the research literature on how nomadic pastoralists are being affected by climate change, how they are adapting, and challenges with using traditional knowledge in adaptation. It focuses on research that investigates local, and particularly traditional, knowledge of water, pasture, their variability, and livestock. This knowledge underpins nomadic livelihoods, so is a foundation for effective adaptation. Changes in the total amount of precipitation, and particularly shifts in its timing, and increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, are having the greatest impacts on herding livelihoods. Herders in drylands worldwide face common adaptation challenges: declining traditional water sources and pasture degradation. Herders' adaptation strategies fall into five major categories: movement to areas with better water and pasture, improving seasonal access to water, improving seasonal access to feed, shifts in herd composition, and livelihood diversification. Movement is central to nomads' adaptation, yet, as climate change takes hold, restrictions on movement are increasing for both socio-economic reasons and climate reasons. Many papers emphasised the importance of combining traditional knowledge and current science to guide adaptation decision-making at household, locality, and national levels. There is widespread concern about the decline in traditional knowledge. All the papers reviewed emphasised the need to support passing on traditional know-how. Herder women's know-how, in particular, is marginalised in the research literature, so their traditional knowledge should be a focus in further research. Herders' adaptations are mostly localised, incremental, and have a relatively short-term focus. As nomadic pastoralism moves further outside the range of historical experience, the possibility of more profound transformations looms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract—The paper presents the results of a study of spatiotemporal variability of the characteristics of the wind field in the free atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere in the SEVIRI radiometer field of view of European geostationary meteorological satellites of the second generation Meteosat 8–Meteosat 11 in the time interval 2007–2021. It is noted that the maximum wind speeds, as well as the maximum average monthly and seasonal anomalies of the wind speed modulus, are observed over the Atlantic. A feature of the temporal variability of the area-averaged wind speed modulus is revealed, which consists in a change in the sign of the trend at the turn of 2015–2017 from positive to negative. At the same time, positive linear trends in the time intervals from 2007 to the points of a change in the sign of the trend over the Atlantic, the entire region under consideration and Eurasia, including the European territory of the Russian Federation, are significantly different from zero with a probability of more than 95% and the negative trend is significant only over the Atlantic. A high correlation was noted in the area of seasonal wind speed variations with the area of Arctic sea ice and temperature characteristics of the troposphere at levels of 500 and 200 hPa. Based on the analysis of the relationship between wind speed variability and the main climatic characteristics and large-scale atmospheric processes, a scheme is proposed for the effect of the accelerating reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice associated with global warming on wind speed in the free atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a critical issue related to power management control in autonomous hybrid systems is presented. Specifically, challenges in optimizing the performance of energy sources and backup systems are proposed, especially under conditions of heavy loads or low renewable energy output. The problem lies in the need for an efficient control mechanism that can enhance power availability while protecting and extending the lifespan of the various power sources in the system. Furthermore, it is necessary to adapt the system's operations to variations in climatic conditions for sustained effectiveness. To address the identified problem. It is proposed the use of an intelligent power management control (IPMC) system employing fuzzy logic control (FLC). The IPMC is designed to optimize the performance of energy sources and backup systems. It aims to predict and adjust the system's operating processes based on variations in climatic conditions, providing a dynamic and adaptive control strategy. The integration of FLC is specifically emphasized for its effectiveness in balancing multiple power sources and ensuring a steady and secure operation of the system. The proposed IPMC with FLC offers several advantages over existing strategies. Firstly, it showcases enhanced power availability, particularly under challenging conditions such as heavy loads or low renewable energy output. Secondly, the system protects and extends the lifespan of the power sources, contributing to long-term sustainability. The dynamic adaptation to climatic variations adds a layer of resilience to the system, making it well-suited for diverse geographical and climatic conditions. The use of realistic data and simulations in MATLAB/Simulink, along with real-time findings from the RT-LAB simulator, indicates the reliability and practical applicability of the proposed IPMC strategy. Efficient load supply and preserved batteries further underscore the benefits of the fuzzy logic-based control strategy in achieving a well-balanced and secure system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper I analyse the implications of "flattening" the curve for long-term care residents in the Province of Ontario, Canada during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic. I then question what the role of healthcare systems are in the response to public health emergencies and problematize their status as entities in need of protection. The ethical implications of this are discussed in light of potential challenges raised by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a physically based mathematical model of the key hydrophysical processes of runoff formation at a catchment point over a long-term period. The model describes the freezing and thawing of soil, the formation and melting of the snow cover, the migration of moisture to the freezing front and the infiltration of rain and melt moisture, evaporation from snow, soil cover, vegetation, and water surface. Average daily values of meteorological parameters are used as initial information for mathematical modeling. The relevance of the study is caused by a need to reveal the main links between the processes of vertical heat and moisture exchange in soil and the environmental factors that determine their climate-driven nature. Using observational data from water balance stations, numerical experiments and an analysis of the influence of long-term variability of the key meteorological factors on evaporation from the land and water surface and on vertical moisture flows in soil were carried out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, we find ourselves in a paradigm in which we believe that accepting climate change data will lead to a kind of automatic action toward the preservation of our environment. I have argued elsewhere (Fried 2020) that this lack of civic action on climate data is significant when placed in the historical, military context of the technologies that collect this data––Earth remote sensing technologies. However, I have not yet discussed the phenomenological or moral implications of this context, which are deeply interconnected. In this paper, I assert that Earth remote sensing technologies can, if we are not careful, lead us to a kind of environmental deskilling. This assertion comes in four parts. First, the military context of Earth remote sensing technologies––which collect important data on climate change––acts as a kind of stability, as defined by Don Ihde and others. Second, I invoke Sir Patrick Heelan to argue that the theoretical underpinnings of Earth systems science do not translate from military to environmental praxes as we imagine they do. Third, Hannah Arendt makes the case that a state's trust in simplifying narratives like that of climate data, meant to create "islands" of certainty in an uncertain world, can be self-defeating. That is to say, they can silence public action. I extend these arguments through Vallor's analysis of moral deskilling, in which she points out that an overemphasis on autonomous data collection––and trust in a kind of automated decision-making on that data––can deskill us from important questions relevant to our collective flourishing. In all of these examples, the lines between environmental and military research are blurry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present research study aims to analyze flood frequency to relate flood magnitudes with corresponding return periods. These estimates are crucial for the development of flood-preventive hydrological infrastructures and flood plain zoning, etc. Basin-wide high intensity of rainfall and high discharge from the upper riparian region during monsoon months creates flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Ghagra River basin. Therefore, the flood estimates for three gauging sites situated on the mainstream of the Ghagra River viz., Elginbridge, Ayodhya, and Turtipar, have been comprehended using the Gumbel distribution (Extreme Value Type I) method and the Log-Pearson Type III distribution method. Flood estimates are calculated for 1.01, 1.05, 1.11, 1.25, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years return periods considering flood time series of 50 years to reduce estimation uncertainty. The findings of flood frequency analysis (FFA) revealed that the probability of occurrence of the flood is more than 80% at all three sites because Ghagra River can carry around 7800 to 9000 m3/s of water discharge without posing a high risk of levee break. The upper and lower limits of discharge carrying capacity depend on the river's desiltation process. Hence, the flood occurs almost every year in the basin; its only variation is its severity. The rainfall-runoff relationship is estimated by integrating a simple linear model and for rainfall trend analysis Mann-Kendall is applied. Linear regression analysis-based rainfall-runoff relationship outcomes revealed a significant relationship with a positive correlation coefficient i.e., 0.2722 for Elginbridge, 0.39624 for Ayodhya, and 0.4844 for Turtipar gauging site in the monsoon season but other factors like a high amount of water discharge from dams in upper riparian regions, etc. are also responsible for flooding in the middle and lower reaches. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis shows a decrease in annual average rainfall and rainfall in the monsoon season. Discharge variability indicates the direct relationship between flood fury and changes in climatic patterns in recent decades. This paper identifies that future research is needed to better inform the policy planners who strive to design sustainable infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change poses significant challenges globally, demanding accurate forecasting methodologies to comprehend and address its consequences. This paper presents a comparative analysis of hybrid models for forecasting carbon dioxide ( C O 2 ) emissions in drought-prone Somalia. The study employs 15 time series models, including six single time series models AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Error Trend Seasonality (ETS), Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation (TBATS), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), and Neural Network AutoRegression (NNAR) and nine hybrid models (ARIMA-ETS, ARIMA-TBATS, ARIMA-Theta, ARIMA-NNAR, ARIMA-ETS-TBATS, ARIMA-NNAR-Theta, ARIMA-NNAR-TBATS, ARIMA-ETS-Theta, and ARIMA-ETS-NNAR). The dataset spans from 1950 to 2020, with a training set from 1950 to 2010 and a testing/validation set from 2011 to 2020. The models are evaluated using various metrics, including Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE), Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Theil's U statistic. The data are found to be non-stationary, requiring the application of differencing techniques. Among the single time series models, TBATS(0.717, 0,0, 1, -) performs the best, while the ARIMA-TBATS hybrid model outperforms the other hybrid models. The forecasts provide valuable insights for addressing the challenges posed by charcoal burning and exporting in Somalia. The study concludes with recommendations for future research, including the incorporation of socio-economic and policy variables, spatial analysis, and long-term forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The measurement of naturally occurring stable isotope ratios of the light elements (C, N, H, O, S) in animal tissues and associated organic and inorganic fractions of associated environments holds immense potential as a means of addressing effects of global change on animals. This paper provides a brief review of studies that have used the isotope approach to evaluate changes in diet, isotopic niche, contaminant burden, reproductive and nutritional investment, invasive species and shifts in migration origin or destination with clear links to evaluating effects of global change. This field has now reached a level of maturity that is impressive but generally underappreciated and involves technical as well as statistical advances and access to freely available R-based packages. There is a need for animal ecologists and conservationists to design tissue collection networks that will best answer current and anticipated questions related to the global change and the biodiversity crisis. These developments will move the field of stable isotope ecology toward a more hypothesis driven discipline related to rapidly changing global events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate action-based assumptions and tradable characteristics underpinned the development of climate change futures contracts, which are related to carbon and climate markets. Therefore, this paper examines return and volatility spillover between climate change futures and carbon allowance futures using dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) models with daily and weekly frequency data. Considering the emergence of US market-based carbon futures and climate futures, this study explores bivariate optimal hedging strategies and optimal portfolio strategies. Using daily data, this study discovers unidirectional and positive return and volatility spillover from the carbon futures market to the climate change futures market, implying opportunities for diversification and hedging. The weekly analysis shows bidirectional and negative return spillover between the carbon futures market and the climate change futures market, implying opportunities for risk hedging. In addition, it also reveals unidirectional and positive volatility spillovers from the carbon futures market to the climate change futures market. The carbon market dominates the climate change futures market. The study also reveals that optimal portfolio strategies will be preferred over optimal hedging strategies. Therefore, this study offers practical implications for investors and portfolio managers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the presence of pressing challenges related to climate change, there is a wide range of policy proposals concerning the green transition of companies. Although private companies—especially those in the energy sector—have a significant role in the climate crisis, current strategies focus mainly on public companies. Such a single-minded approach to policymaking could give rise to a phenomenon that we term sustainability arbitrage, whereby activities causing climate change gradually shift from public firms to private ones. This may, in turn, create a world where public firms look relatively green while their private rivals become the main driver of activities contributing to the climate crisis. In this paper, we focus on sustainability arbitrage, its manifestations and possible strategies to overcome this problem. We first discuss if the current sustainability-driven corporate governance mechanisms are effective in curbing the sustainability arbitrage problem. In order to prevent sustainability arbitrage, we argue for extending mandatory climate disclosure rules to private companies. We also analyze responsible divestment/phasing out of carbon-intensive assets by public companies as a complementary strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the extent of change in climatic and hydrological variables in the past and the future is essential for climate change-resilient development, especially in the climate change sensitive region of Nepal. This paper analyzed future climatic trends and extremes, historical hydrological extremes and their linkage with historical precipitation extremes, and discussed the impacts of climate change on various sectors in the less-studied Small and Medium-sized Eastern River Basins (SMERB) of Nepal. Applying an ensemble of five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) global climate models (GCMs), we evaluated 10 precipitation and 13 temperature extreme indices using Climpact2 for the historical (1979–2020), near-future (2021–2045), mid-future (2046–2070) and far-future (2071–2100) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), SSP245 and SSP585. Hydrological extreme indices were assessed using Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration tool. Projected climate revealed significant increase (9–73%) in annual and seasonal rainfall except winter; frequent intense rainfall extremes but prolonged dry spells; significant increasing minimum and maximum temperature trends (0.4–5 °C); rise in extreme heat events; increasing minimum and maximum discharge extreme trends in most hydrological stations; as well as strong association between maximum 1 day precipitation (Rx1day) and 1 day max flow for all stations. Growing dry periods but intense rainfall in few wet days, coupled with warming pattern all-over SMERB with frequent extreme events indicate high risk for future climate-related disasters. The harsher climate will potentially have damaging implications, especially in climate-induced disasters, food security, and water and sanitation infrastructure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the twenty-first century, it is crucial to see climate change not only as a risk that can cause large-scale forest disturbances but also as an opportunity for innovative approaches to forest management and silviculture of new resistant tree species, like the prospective black pine (Pinus nigra J. F. Arnold). This literature review compiles findings from 260 scientific papers. It presents a summary of research results of black pine potential in European forests from 1970 to 2023. It describes the importance of its taxonomy, area of distribution and introduction, ecological characteristics, production, silviculture, wood quality, threats, and pests, as well as the potential of this tree species in relation to global climate change. In Europe, black pine covers an area of over 9.5 million ha and is one of the most frequently planted tree species outside of its original range. This pine is an effective tree species for afforestation management in arid habitats, as well as in areas threatened by pollution or on reclamation sites. Moreover, it resists the negative effects of climate change exceptionally well, such as more intense heat waves and more frequent long-term droughts, especially in young stands with lower tree density. However, the consequences of climate change on growth are not homogeneous across black pine distribution ranges due to interpopulation variability. It also has a high production potential advantage, and the wood is easy to process for various purposes. Overall, black pine can be considered one of the most adaptable pine species to anthropogenic factors and ongoing climate change, and a valuable tree species in forestry for newly cultivated areas in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the study was to determine the direction and rate of the projected changes of the start, end, and duration of the growing season in Poland in two-time horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The main part of the paper was preceded by an analysis of changes in the start and end dates and the duration of the growing season in Poland in the period 1966–2020. The growing season in Poland is projected to be the shortest in mountain areas and in the north-eastern regions of Poland, where the date of growing season start is the latest and the date of the growing season end is the earliest. Whereas the longest growing season due to the projected earliest start and latest end dates is expected in the southwestern Poland. In the case of the coast, its late end will be of the greatest importance for its duration as a result of the warming effect of the sea in the autumn–winter period. The most intensive changes are forecasted in the long-term perspective in the case of the scenario regarding a high level of greenhouse gas emissions. The forecasts show that outside mountain areas, the growing season duration will vary from less than 255 days in the northeastern regions to more than 290 days in southwest and western Poland. In the duration of the mountains, the growing season will vary from 180 days on Kasprowy Wierch to 188 days on Śnieżka. This suggests significant changes in agroclimatic conditions in Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global distribution of salt-affected soils (SAS) has remained at about 1 billion hectares in the literature over the years despite changes in climate, sea levels, and land use patterns which influence the distribution. Lack of periodic update of input soil data, data gaps, and inconsistency are part of the reasons for constant SAS distribution in the literature. This paper proposes harmonization as a suitable alternative for managing inconsistent data and minimizing data gaps. It developed a new harmonization service for supporting country-driven global SAS information update. The service contains a global library of harmonization models for harmonizing inconsistent soil data. It also contains models for identifying gaps in SAS database and for showing global distribution where harmonization of available data is needed. The service can be used by countries to develop national SAS information and update global SAS distribution. Its data availability index is useful in identifying countries without SAS data in the global database, which is a convenient way to identify countries to mobilize when updating global SAS information. Its application in 27 countries showed that the countries have more SAS data than they currently share with the global databases and that most of their data require SAS harmonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What are Cy Twombly's sculptures made of? This article presents an overview of a non-destructive examination conducted on three sculptures by American artist Cy Twombly (1928–2011) as part of an art-technological research project at the Doerner Institut in Munich. The artworks are part of the collection of the Brandhorst Museum and belong to Twombly's series of so-called 'Original Sculptures': assemblages of individual found objects, which the artist covered and modified with layers of plaster and white paint. To develop a long-term preservation strategy, the research focused on understanding the materials and construction methods used in Twombly's sculptures. In collaboration with the Chair of Non-Destructive Testing at the Technical University of Munich, the artworks were inspected using X-ray radiography and computed tomography. The results showed that Cy Twombly used various everyday objects made from wood, plastics, metal, and paper/cardboard to build the assemblages. Unexpectedly, the examinations revealed that the individual parts are solely held together by the coating of plaster and paint, lacking additional mechanical connections. The overall structure thus proved to be very fragile and highly sensitive to physical stresses, whether due to handling, transport, or strains in the microstructure caused by climatic fluctuations. Since little was known about Cy Twombly´s choice of materials and manufacturing details, the results offer valuable insights into the overall artistic process and decision-making of one of the most influential artists of the 20th/twenty-first centuries. Conservators can use the art-technological findings to monitor the sculptures 'condition and develop or adapt long-term preservation strategies, including aspects such as ambient climatic conditions and handling storage and transport specifications. In addition, the knowledge generated can be used for further research on the specific materials and transferred to other artworks by Cy Twombly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, much attention has been paid to climate change issues. Regional climate change can be manifested in the changes in the main climate-forming factors, including wind. Studying the climatic characteristics of wind over the Caspian Sea is considered the most important task, since wind affects the variability of currents, the formation of hydrological and hydrochemical processes, and the information about the wind regime is necessary for the operation of marine organizations, the specifics of which is the dependence of all stationary and mobile objects in the sea on hydrometeorological conditions. The paper presents the analysis of the frequency of wind directions and wind speeds for individual months, seasons, years, and different gradations of wind speed. For the climatic characteristics of wind speed for consecutive 30-year periods, the comparative analysis of changes in climatological normals is carried out, and wind characteristic deviations relative to the standard reference period are revealed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global warming and climate change caused by the continuing rise in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have attracted the attention of the public, scientists, and governments in recent years. An effective approach to limit the impact of such emissions is the implementation of advanced carbon capture and storage systems. This paper provides an overview of technologies and recent advances in carbon capture and utilization. The main methods include postcombustion, precombustion, and oxyfuel-combustion, adsorption, and membrane capture. In addition, various problems associated with the storage, transportation, and utilization of CO2 are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results of calculations of temperature trends in the free atmosphere (troposphere and lower stratosphere) using the quantile regression apparatus are considered and analyzed. In traditional techniques used in climatology, trends are estimated by use of regression based on the least squares method. Quantile regression, in contrast to these techniques, makes it possible to estimate regression parameters for each quantile of predictand values in the quantile range from zero to one. Using quantile regression to estimate climate changes results in a detailed picture of the dependence of the climate trend on the variation range of meteorological parameters in the quantile range of these parameters from zero to one. In particular, climate trends can be estimated for meteorological parameter values close to extreme. This paper uses the global radiosonde data array from which the stations are selected if the completeness of their data meets the requirements stated. Using the radiosonde data from the selected stations, the dependences of climatic trends of temperature on isobaric surfaces on values of quantiles (so-called process diagrams), as well as vertical quantile cross sections of climate trend values, are calculated, plotted, and analyzed. For thirteen high-latitude stations in the Northern Hemisphere among the selected ones, temperature trends are estimated both using radiosonde data and based on the ERA 5/ERA 5.1 reanalyses. An analysis of the results allows one to note the nonuniform character of tropospheric warming trends in the range of quantile variation, which is more apparent in the winter season. The nonuniform (for the range of quantile variation) character of tropospheric temperature trends is due to the fact that the tropospheric warming rate in the "cold" part of the quantile range is higher than that in its "warm" part. This agrees with the results obtained previously by analysis of surface temperature trends using the quantile regression method (QRM). The nonuniform character of cooling trends in the lower stratosphere is noted for the range of quantile variations. In winter and, to a lesser extent, in spring, the rate of stratospheric cooling decreases in absolute magnitude with an increase in quantile values at some stations in northern latitudes. Moreover, for the quantiles close to 1.0, negative trends can change sign. This can be both due to incomplete data on lower stratospheric temperature, which is particularly inherent in the high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and due to the influence of more frequently occurring sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) on the temperature trend structure that is detailed within the range of quantile values. In is noted that the detailed structures of climate temperature trends that are obtained on the basis of radiosonde data proved to be very similar to those obtained based on arrays of ERA 5/ERA 5.1 reanalysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we propose meaningfulness as one important evaluative criterion in individual climate ethics and suggest that most of our greenhouse gas emitting actions, behaviours, and lives are the opposite of meaningful: anti-meaningful. We explain why such actions etc. score negatively on three important dimensions of the meaningfulness scale, which we call the agential, narrative, and generative dimensions. We suggest that thinking about individual climate ethics also in terms of (anti-) meaningfulness illuminates important aspects of our troubled ethical involvement with CC and can make a fresh and fruitful contribution to existing discussions, which tend to focus on moral responsibility and obligations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Critical scholars on power relations and climate change adaptation have highlighted the lack of community participation as a consequence of unbalanced power operations. Evidence about how unequal power relations and subject formation constrain public participation, however, is under-studied. In this paper, we utilised the intersection between community participation and the subjectivities lens to examine how a hierarchical political structure systematically operates to influence community engagement in adaptation and how and why local communities are included or excluded from adaptation as a result of subject-making, using Vietnam as a case study. Using 66 semi-structured interviews and ten focus group discussions involving policymakers, practitioners, local authorities, and communities, we examined how the key respondents stereotyped local roles and capacity in agricultural adaptation activities. Applying content analysis, we found that the general population in Vietnam is often framed as lacking knowledge and capacity to respond to climate impacts. Reflected through a traditional government-led model in two agricultural adaptation projects, the study showed that subtle but pervasive subjectivities and subject-making processes constrain community participation by affecting perceptions and, subsequently, actions of key stakeholders, undermining local roles and capacity in undertaking adaptation. These perpetuate the power imbalance between local communities and government entities. The findings contribute to the prevailing scholarship of climate change adaptation that, under an authoritarian regime, local capacity is undermined not only by powerholders but also by community members as they consent to government decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally, climate change is one of the most pressing issues affecting the human race. The health of the Kazakh people is significantly impacted by climate change, which has made Kazakhstan one of the most vulnerable nations in Central Asia. This study reviews the impact of climate change on population health in Kazakhstan and provides recommendations to address these issues. This review paper evaluated available evidence and resources, which included journal articles, country reports, World Bank reports, United Nations Development Program reports, and other findings and reports relevant to the issues of climate change and the quality of life of the Kazakh people. The impact of climate change on the country is becoming more pronounced. Floods, deterioration of water quality, melting of glaciers, and extremes of temperature are some of the direct impacts of climate change observed in the country. These changes were shown to affect the health of the population. Short conclusion: This review revealed mounting proof of how climate change is having an increasing impact on the lives of people in Kazakhstan. There is now an urgency to address the impact of climate change by implementing various mitigation and adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the dynamics of the hydrothermal coefficients characterizing agroclimatic resources on the territory of Siberia within the coordinates of 50°–65° N, 60°–120° E during modern climate change. The intensity, frequency, and duration of adverse weather phenomena for agriculture (the atmospheric droughts and moisture excess conditions) are analyzed. The Ped' drought index () and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated from the data of 134 weather stations and the ERA5 reanalysis are used as an indicator. In Eastern Siberia and in the west of the analyzed territory, there is an increase in aridity (a trend is 0.2–0.5 per decade). Northern regions of Kazakhstan, the Sayan Mountains, and the West Siberian Plain were characterized by a relative stability of hydrothermal conditions in 1950–2020 (statistically significant changes are not revealed). A direct linear dependence of hydrothermal conditions on large-scale circulation processes have been not detected for most cases. The greatest number of statistically significant correlation coefficients has been obtained for the drought index and the SCAND (Scandinavia teleconnection pattern) index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents the results of studying the influence of modern agrometeorological conditions on the yield of different groups of grain crops in the municipal districts of the Saratov oblast. The climatic trends of the recent two decades are analyzed for five weather stations (Khvalynsk, Balashov, Saratov, Ershov, and Aleksandrov Gai). For the Saratov weather station, a longer period (1941–2022) is analyzed. There is an increase in the heat availability and aridity of the territory. The analysis of the dynamics of the crop yield distribution and variability has shown that the most favorable conditions of crop cultivation are formed in the Balashov municipal district. Operational forecast models of the maximum and minimum productivity of winter wheat are developed, which makes it possible to predict a yield with a monthly lead time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The warming in the first half of the 20th century in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) (early 20th century warming (ETCW)) was comparable in magnitude to the current warming, but occurred at a time when the growth rate of the greenhouse gas (GG) concentration in the atmosphere was 4–5 times slower than in recent decades. The mechanisms of the early warming are still a subject of discussion. The ETCW was most pronounced in the high latitudes of the NH, and the recent reconstructions consistently indicate a significant negative anomaly of the Arctic sea ice area during early warming period linked with enhanced Atlantic water inflow to the Arctic and amplified warming in high latitudes of the NH. Assessing the contributions of internal variability and external natural and anthropogenic factors to this climatic anomaly is key for understanding historical and modern climate dynamics. This paper considers mechanisms of ETCW associated with various internal variability and external anthropogenic and natural factors. An analysis of the findings on the topic of long-term studies of climate variations in the NH during the period of instrumental observations does not allow one to attribute the ETCW to one particular mechanism of internal climate variability or external forcing of the climate. Most likely, this event was caused by a combined effect of long-term climatic fluctuations in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific with a noticeable contribution of external radiative forcing associated with a decrease in volcanic activity, changes in solar activity, and an increase in GG concentration in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic emissions. Furthermore, this climate variation in high latitudes of the NH has been enhanced by a number of positive feedbacks. An overview of existing research is given, as are the main mechanisms of internal and external climate variability in the NH in the early 20th century. Despite the fact that the internal variability of the climate system is apparently the main mechanism that explains the ETCW, the quantitative assessment of the contribution of each factor remains uncertain, since it significantly depends on the initial conditions in the models and the lack of instrumental data in the early 20th century, especially in polar latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Space observations (1979–2020) have shown that, over the past 40 years, years with a decrease in the area of summer ice and their thickness prevailed. Over 10 years, negative trends of anomalies in the area and thickness of the ice are –13 and –15%, respectively. A rapid reduction in the area of old ice (>4-year-old) is also noted, because in 1985 it was estimated at 2.7 million km2, while in March 2010 it was 0.34 million km2. The paper analyses paleo sea ice extent during the Holocene (the last 12 000 years) based on empirical IP25 biomarkers (a sea ice proxy with 25 carbon atoms synthesized by the specific Arctic sea ice diatoms Hasleaspp, which have been proven to be a suitable proxy for paleo-sea ice reconstructions) obtained from deep-sea cores from the North Atlantic. The data showed that, during the warm periods of the Early and Middle Holocene, the area of summer sea ice was reduced to a minimum. This confirms the conclusion made earlier in (Kinnard et al., 2011) that the current trend of reducing the area and thickness of ice is unprecedented over the past 1500 years. There is no complete analogue of the climate in the past corresponding to the current level of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The period with CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere similar to the current level was the warm part of the Middle Pliocene between 3 and 4 million years ago with level of the CO2 concentration 450–500 ppm against approximately 420 ppm at present. Paleo-climate reconstructions for this period estimate the global temperature to be 3.0–3.5 ± 0.5°C higher than at the end of the 19th century. Summer air temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere exceeded the current ones by 8–10°C, and the sea ice in the Arctic shelf seas was completely absent in the summer. Empirical data and model simulations have shown that presently the main driver of the reduction of the Arctic sea ice area is the increase in concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. At the present time, old sea ice tends to be replaced by seasonal ice, demonstrating a natural shift from the predominance of permanent ice to an ice-free Arctic. In the case of a continuous increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere despite emission control measures, one of the scenarios that happened in the past may occur again. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sundarban is a designated world heritage with world’s largest contiguous mangrove forest cover, shared by India and Bangladesh. The Indian part is divided into two morphological units: reclaimed section and non-reclaimed mangrove forests. Here alarming changes are reported in light of erratic monsoons, increasing sea levels, salinity, frequent cyclones and coastal flooding, vanishing islands, and socio-economic crisis; leading to growing numbers of ecological refugees. It is one of the most cyclone prone areas in the world. Though there are piecemeal efforts in tackling the menace of cyclone, a holistic cyclone preparedness plan with bottom-up approach is still missing. This lacuna was glaringly highlighted during cyclone Amphan on May 20, 2020, when the state was reeling under the COVID-19 pandemic. To minimize the loopholes in the existing cyclone mitigation practices, the paper tries to prepare a process prototype by involving (a) Occurrence-Resistance-Resilience Analysis and (b) Preparedness-Risk Reduction-Capacity Assessment: encompassing physical and socio-economic parameters. For the first part, vulnerable zone identification through data mining of cyclone occurrence and identification of eroding and stable sections; analysing land use change; studying hydrographic and hydrologic condition affecting the embankment stability; and scrutinising the socio-economic condition and infrastructural amenities present needs to be conducted. The second part entails devising effective management strategies through the following: upgradation of disaster warning system; optimising the location of cyclone shelters and relief distribution centres; efficient relief distribution; and viability checking of insurance cover. This proactive approach reflecting the ground reality would be beneficial for formulating an effective Cyclone Preparedness Plan with a participatory approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the current state of mangroves in Egypt, analyses how climate change is affecting mangrove forests and suggests a conservation strategy to safeguard this valuable maritime resource. Mangroves in Egypt are primarily found in regions around the Red Sea, making them popular for ecotourism across the globe. A crucial breeding and feeding ground for many commercial fishery species, mangroves are a maritime habitat that is both economically and environmentally significant and a variety of living things call them home. Mangroves are one of the most threatened tropical and subtropical ecoregions in the world. These threats come from both natural and human sources, including oil spills, human waste runoff, herbicide use, and coastal development, all of which have the potential to harm the environment. Mangrove habitats are immediately impacted by salinity changes and rising sea levels brought on by climate change. This is unfortunate as mangroves are one of the most important global carbon sinks, and their loss due to climate change may accelerate sea level rise and ocean acidification, which will cause the extinction of numerous commercial fish species. A conservation strategy should be implemented to safeguard the mangroves around the Egyptian Red Sea by using mitigation techniques, creating marine protected zones near the mangroves, and consulting the owners of the mangrove stalks. Analysis of multi-temporal satellite imagery is one of the most significant methods to assist decision-makers and environmental planners in obtaining high-precision information about environmental and climatic changes. Analysis of satellite imagery is a valuable way to detect, monitor, assess and map the environmental, human, and natural activities that are threatening the growth of the mangrove forest ecosystem. Change detection analyses using satellite imagery were conducted to evaluate the effects of rapid coastal sustainable development, including human urban and tourism activities; the decline and destruction of large areas of the mangrove forest for animal feeding along camel trade roads; and the threat of natural impacts such as flash flooding, coastal and soil erosion or human impacts such as established desalination plants and other human activities along the coastal zone of the Egyptian Red Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project's needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changing climate has altered the trends and variability of precipitation and temperature globally and thereby increasing the risk of natural and social disasters, especially in coastal climatic transitional zones such as the Huaihe river basin (HRB). This paper applies the Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) method for bias correction and systematically evaluates the performance of the 30 Global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating precipitation and temperature over the Huaihe river basin (HRB) for 1979–2014. A suitable multi-model ensemble subset (BMME) is selected based on the Euclidean Distance (ED) synthetic metric. Results show that in comparison to the baseline period 1995–2014, precipitation (temperature) over HRB is projected to increase at the rate of around 15 mm/decade (0.1 °C/decade), 16 mm/decade (0.3 °C/decade), 20 mm/decade (0.5 °C/decade), and 15 mm/decade (0.6 °C/decade) for the period 2015–2100, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. In the long-term (2081–2100), the annual precipitation is projected to increase by 32%, 27%, 35%, and 26%, under the four scenarios, respectively. The temperature is projected to remain stable or slightly decrease under SSP1-2.6 (2 °C) and SSP2-4.5 (3 °C), while will keep rising and increasing by 6 °C under SSP5-8.5 and by 4 °C under SSP3-7.0 by 2100. The isotherm and isohyet are projected to shift northwest from southeastern coastal China to inland in the future, which is likely associated with the northwestward shift of the western Pacific anticyclone in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the rapidly growing agricultural sector, spotting signs of climate change is crucial. Even a slight change in climate behaviour can hinder crop development. As a result, it is necessary to investigate these climatic signals at a localised regional scale. The current methods mainly emphasise on outliers when identifying abnormalities in geographical and temporal data. This disregards the possibility of negative impacts brought on by climatic changes at each location. This paper introduces a novel mathematical approach, named the probabilistic convolution neighborhood technique (PCNT), that finds the temporal and spatial coherence at each point. Its ability to examine distribution at all grid points makes it easy to identify even a slight change in climatic variables. This new approach has been applied to study the variations in parameters, namely humidity, precipitation, mean, and maximum temperatures, that are collected from the Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) for the time period 1980 to 2020. The datasets are daily single-level datasets from which annual and seasonal (Kharif, Rabi, and Zaid) data are obtained. Spatio-temporal properties, along with inter-vicennial and inter-decadal variations of climatic variables with regions having low, high, and normal probability distributions, are studied. The findings showed a pattern in the temporal features between Kharif and Rabi. The mean temperature for the annual and seasonal data showed decreasing trends for tail diagnostics. The study brings out an understanding in the probable change in various metrics, which are crucial in the context of crop growth and agricultural practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the future patterns of precipitation behaviour in unique geographical areas, largely determined by their orography and local scale, can help lay the foundations for a new precipitation model for the design of the city's main urban drainage infrastructures (intensity-duration-frequency curves, mathematical functions that relate precipitation intensity to duration and frequency of occurrence, hereafter IDF, for the short-, medium- and long-term future). This will definitely contribute to the improvement of the city's resilience to the effects of climate change. In this paper, the projections of a subset of climate change models from both the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; with a total of 5 simulations) and Euro-CORDEX (for a set of 51 simulations) have been adjusted to the municipality of Alicante (in the southeast of Spain), using the Climadjust tool (climadjust.com). These projections contain different climatic variables. The rainfall variable has been used to derive a new framework of boundary conditions to help design more resilient infrastructure for torrential rainfall events and urban flooding. The projections corresponding to three climate change scenarios (CMIP6: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5; and Euro-CORDEX: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are considered with daily resolution and, by applying statistical techniques of temporal disaggregation (by means of a cascade model), hourly (and sub-hourly, reaching 30-min resolution) disaggregation. The results at hourly and 30-min resolutions are used to construct IDF curves of future climate, grouped into short-term (years 2015 to 2040), medium-term (years 2041 to 2070) and long-term (years 2071 to 2100) sub-scenarios. The selected future climate IDFs for an adverse climate change scenario (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) show increases in rainfall intensities, higher the shorter the rainfall duration, for return periods greater than or equal to 25 years, whereas for return periods under 25 years the current IDFs can be representative of future scenarios. Current calculations and future projection of the torrentiality index for severe climate change scenarios, as well as the climate change factors, show an increase in the frequency and magnitude of the heaviest rainfall. This fact corroborates the hypotheses of greater general torrentiality in future rainfall in this specific area of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasingly affecting agriculture worldwide, causing yield losses and undermining food security. Behind the international consensus on the urgent need for ambitious policies to adapt agriculture to climate change (AACC) hides a competition between three agricultural models—agroecology, climate-smart agriculture, and conventional agriculture—each carrying distinctive perspective on how agriculture should adapt to climate change. To date, no study has shown which of these three agricultural models is promoted the most by climate change adaptation policies. To shed light on this question, we undertook semi-structured surveys with resource persons, a literature review and a multi-criteria analysis, identifying and characterizing 226 AACC policy initiatives in seven countries or regions in the north (Andalusia, Occitanie, California, Guadeloupe) and the south (Colombia, South Africa, Senegal). Our aim was to identify (1) concrete strategic options mobilized by policy initiatives to adapt agriculture to climate change and (2) agricultural models that are implicitly or explicitly promoted by these policy initiatives. We identified 14 climate change adaptation options that mobilize a set of three complementary levers of action: (i) transforming production systems or enabling access to productive resources, (ii) providing access to knowledge that is useful for AACC, and (iii) coordinating and financing adaptation actions at territorial or sector scale. Agroecology and climate-smart agriculture are the two agricultural models favored in the mix of policy initiatives in all the studied sites. Despite conceptual differences, in real-life situations, these models do not conflict with each other since they are often promoted concomitantly. AACC policy initiatives, although diversified, seem too fragmented and not sufficiently restrictive to bring about rapid and profound change. This paper presents a new classification of AACC adaptation options, and is the first to reveal which agricultural models are promoted by policy initiatives in a wide range of regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does land security matter in climate change adaptation strategies choice? To provide answers to this, the paper used a survey data collected from a random sample of 341 agricultural households in 2020 in Benin. Descriptive statistics and multivariate probit model were used to analyze the data. The main adaptations strategies identified are adjustment in sowing time, tree planting, crop and livestock integration, use of irrigation, use of improved variety, and endogenous beliefs, while family land, own land and rented land are the types of land tenure arrangements. Results from a multivariate probit model show that the use of family land increases the likelihood of planting tree, crop and livestock integration, use of improved variety, and endogenous beliefs. Farmers using own land are more likely to adopt tree planting and endogenous beliefs as adaptation strategies, while they are less likely to adopt irrigation. The use of rented land increases the likelihood of adjusting the sowing time, crop and livestock integration, use of irrigation, use of improved variety, and use of endogenous beliefs. These findings suggest that the choice of adaptation strategies to cope with climate change depends on the type of land tenure arrangements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]