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Any hydro-meteorology variable includes different components, in general, such as periodicity, trend, possibly jump, and uncertain stochastic parts. Among these, the trend analysis gained importance in the last three decades due to global warming and climate change effects. The literature is full of monotonic trend applications by taking into consideration trend analysis methodologies such as Mann–Kendall trend identification, Sen trend slope calculation, and Şen innovative trend analysis (ITA). It is more important in practical studies to deal with less than one-year durations to assess the possible trend pieces for better practical uses such as agricultural productivity purposes. In this paper, a new concept is applied, known as the innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), to assess the trend component transitions between two successive months. The application of the methodology is presented for the coastal region of northeast Algerian precipitation records. The emanated results from this study provided information that El Taref station has the most unstable precipitation behavior among all the meteorology stations in the study area, moving from a month to another rather very unsystematically; whereas other meteorology stations have systematic movement from a month to the subsequent one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have analyzed the time series of daily values for three meteorological elements, two continuous and a discontinuous one, i.e., the maximum and minimum air temperature and the precipitation. The analysis was done based on the observations from seven stations in Serbia from the period 1951-2010. The main aim of this paper was to quantify the complexity of the annual values for the mentioned time series and to calculate the rate of its change. For that purpose, we have used the sample entropy and the Kolmogorov complexity as the measures which can indicate the variability and irregularity of a given time series. Results obtained show that the maximum temperature has increasing trends in the given period which points out a warming, ranged in the interval 1-2 °C. The increasing temperature indicates the higher internal energy of the atmosphere, changing the weather patterns, manifested in the time series. The Kolmogorov complexity of the maximum temperature time series has statistically significant increasing trends, while the sample entropy has increasing but statistically insignificant trend. The trends of complexity measures for the minimum temperature depend on the location. Both complexity measures for the precipitation time series have decreasing trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I investigate the intraday effects of rain on the demand for indoor leisure. To do so, I use sub-daily museum attendance and weather data to reveal a dynamic response to precipitation that would be obscured using day-level data. I find that the magnitudes and signs of the effects of rainfall vary significantly throughout the day. In some hours, the predicted increase in visitors is nearly three times larger than would be expected from estimates using daily measures. Many individuals appear to actively adjust their plans throughout the day in response to rain, while others’ attendance depends upon prior weather forecasts of rain. Further analysis reveals that visit duration also increases during rainy periods, and visitors are more likely to attend pay-to-enter special exhibits. International visitors make up a greater share of total visitors during periods of observed precipitation. More broadly, this paper establishes the viability and value of working with widely available sub-daily rainfall data to uncover these dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the long-term variability of frequency of atmospheric blockings over Western Siberia in 1948-2015 based on the data of three reanalysis projects. We revealed a decreasing blocking frequency for eight of twelve months. However, since the estimated trends of blocking frequency are small comparing to the significant amplitude of interannual variations, we proposed to divide the entire studied period into several quasi-decadal intervals that differ both in the amplitude of interannual fluctuations of blocking frequency and in trends. The effect of Western Siberian blockings imposed on synoptic and climatic variability of meteorological parameters in Asia was studied. The study demonstrated that in summer teleconnection patterns in temperature and precipitation fields are of the close sign-alternating structure; this indirectly indicates that in Western Siberia the blocking is a part of a large-scale wave mechanism. Like the Ural blockings, the blockings occurring over Western Siberia affect meteorological characteristics within the East Asian monsoon area. In winter time they contribute to lower surface temperature and decreased precipitation in Southeast Asia. In summer during blocking events over Western Siberia, precipitation increases in the East Asian monsoon area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971–2000) and a projection period (2021–2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a growing concern that countries should reduce their dependence on fossil fuels for electricity generation and look to other cleaner technologies. Hydroelectricity is one such option. However, given that hydropower is dependent on rainfall and associated runoff for power generation, it is susceptible to both the positive and negative impacts of climate change, such as increases in temperature and changes in precipitation and runoff. In this paper, impacts on hydropower generation have been organised as either changes in long-term trends or short-term variability and shocks. These impacts could either manifest themselves as direct impacts on hydropower generation potential or as indirect impacts (or ancillary impacts) such as increased competition for water. Citing examples from around the world, this paper investigates the scale of these projected impacts, and the potential cost implication of inaction. It concludes by making recommendations for possible adaptive options to build resilience in response to local impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) simulate different realizations of possible future climates at global scale under contrasting scenarios of land-use and greenhouse gas emissions. Such data require several additional processing steps before it can be used to drive impact models. Spatial downscaling, typically by regional climate models (RCM), and bias-correction are two such steps that have already been addressed for Europe. Yet, the errors in resulting daily meteorological variables may be too large for specific model applications. Crop simulation models are particularly sensitive to these inconsistencies and thus require further processing of GCM-RCM outputs. Moreover, crop models are often run in a stochastic manner by using various plausible weather time series (often generated using stochastic weather generators) to represent climate time scale for a period of interest (e.g. 2000 ± 15 years), while GCM simulations typically provide a single time series for a given emission scenario. To inform agricultural policy-making, data on near- and medium-term decadal time scale is mostly requested, e.g. 2020 or 2030. Taking a sample of multiple years from these unique time series to represent time horizons in the near future is particularly problematic because selecting overlapping years may lead to spurious trends, creating artefacts in the results of the impact model simulations. This paper presents a database of consolidated and coherent future daily weather data for Europe that addresses these problems. Input data consist of daily temperature and precipitation from three dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate simulations of the IPCC A1B emission scenario created within the ENSEMBLES project. Solar radiation is estimated from temperature based on an auto-calibration procedure. Wind speed and relative air humidity are collected from historical series. From these variables, reference evapotranspiration and vapour pressure deficit are estimated ensuring consistency within daily records. The weather generator ClimGen is then used to create 30 synthetic years of all variables to characterize the time horizons of 2000, 2020 and 2030, which can readily be used for crop modelling studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to elucidate a potential use of the large samples of seasonal means that hindcasts provide for investigating different aspects of climate variability. This use of hindcasts complements their traditional uses in bias correction, real-time forecast calibration, and prediction skill assessment. For seasonal hindcast data from NCEP CFSv2 we show that a sample size 5208 for each target season is achievable. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed concept, we use this large sample dataset to illustrate how it could be used in documenting spatial variability in various moments of seasonal mean precipitation PDF over the US, and further, quantify nuances in the variations in precipitation PDF at different geographical locations with the amplitude of ENSO SSTs. It is our hope that analysis presented in this paper will accelerate utilization of seasonal hindcast datasets in furthering our understanding of different aspects of climate variability. With the advantage of the large sample size, we demonstrated that the precipitation PDF at the each grid of the CONUS can be represented by gamma distribution for a more concise and effective way to summarize precipitation variability. The availability of the large sample dataset also allowed us to analyze the statistical characteristic of the precipitation responses to the different amplitudes of ENSO SSTs. The results show that for strong warm events, enhancement in precipitation has larger amplitude than decrease in precipitation for cold events in the regions of Southern California and southeastern US. The variation of the precipitation signal over the other sub-regions including the southwestern US, mid-northwest, and mid-east shows more linear relationship with the ENSO SSTs. In response to anomalous ENSO SSTs, although the PDF of December-January-February seasonal mean precipitation anomaly is shifted from its climatological PDF, there is still a large overlap between precipitation PDFs for ENSO and its climatological counterpart. This uncertainty in seasonal mean outcomes of precipitation, therefore, limits the seasonal prediction skill. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The second West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation Project Experiment (WAMME II) is designed to improve understanding of the possible roles and feedbacks of sea surface temperature (SST), land use land cover change (LULCC), and aerosols forcings in the Sahel climate system at seasonal to decadal scales. The project's strategy is to apply prescribed observationally based anomaly forcing, i.e., 'idealized but realistic' forcing, in simulations by climate models. The goal is to assess these forcings' effects in producing/amplifying seasonal and decadal climate variability in the Sahel between the 1950s and the 1980s, which is selected to characterize the great drought period of the last century. This is the first multi-model experiment specifically designed to simultaneously evaluate such relative contributions. The WAMME II models have consistently demonstrated that SST forcing is a major contributor to the twentieth century Sahel drought. Under the influence of the maximum possible SST forcing, the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produce up to 60 % of the precipitation difference during the period. The present paper also addresses the role of SSTs in triggering and maintaining the Sahel drought. In this regard, the consensus of WAMME II models is that both Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs greatly contributed to the drought, with the former producing an anomalous displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone before the WAM onset, and the latter mainly contributes to the summer WAM drought. The WAMME II models also show that the impact of LULCC forcing on the Sahel climate system is weaker than that of SST forcing, but still of first order magnitude. According to the results, under LULCC forcing the ensemble mean of WAMME II models can produces about 40 % of the precipitation difference between the 1980s and the 1950s. The role of land surface processes in responding to and amplifying the drought is also identified. The results suggest that catastrophic consequences are likely to occur in the regional Sahel climate when SST anomalies in individual ocean basins and in land conditions combine synergistically to favor drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Appropriate management of contemporary environments requires knowledge of their long-term history. We use palaeoecological data to explore how contemporary forest-steppe environments have been shaped by climate change and human impacts through the Holocene using the western Mid-Russian Upland as a case-study. Our paper presents new reconstructions of Mid- and Late Holocene climate, vegetation dynamics and local environmental change based on pollen, plant macrofossil and testate amoeba records from a site at Selikhovo (Mid-Russian Upland, Russia). Eutrophic fen vegetation dominated by Phragmites australis developed around 6800 cal year BP and has been resilient to episodes of local burning and variable input of mineral material through the Holocene. New and previously-published data show that the boundary between broadleaf forest and steppe occupied a similar position to present during the period 7000-4800 cal year BP, despite a warmer and drier climate, but shifted to the south following climate cooling and an increase in precipitation from 4800-2500 cal year BP. A subsequent decline in woodland cover was caused by both climate change and human impacts, with human activity becoming increasingly significant over the last two millennia. Prior to major human disturbance (about 1700 cal year BP) the landscape was dominated by mixed broadleaf-pine forests with some spruce covering about 60 % of the study area. Our results emphasize the variability of steppe-forest habitats over long time periods and the need to consider human impacts and climate change when setting targets for habitat conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How soil moisture affects precipitation is an important question-with far reaching consequences, from weather prediction to centennial climate change-, albeit a poorly understood one. In this paper, an analysis of soil moisture-precipitation interactions over France based on observations is presented. A first objective of this paper is to investigate how large scale circulation modulates soil moisture-precipitation interactions, thanks to a weather regime approach. A second objective is to study the influence of soil moisture not only on precipitation but also on the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration. Indeed, to have a total positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback, the potential decrease in precipitation associated with drier soils should be larger than the decrease in evapotranspiration that drier soils may also cause. A potential limited impact of soil moisture on precipitation is found for some weather regimes, but its sign depends on large scale circulation. Indeed, antecedent dry soil conditions tend to lead to smaller precipitation for the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) regime but to larger precipitation for the Atlantic Low regime. This differential response of precipitation to soil moisture anomalies depending on large scale circulation is traced back to different responses of atmospheric stability. For all circulation regimes, dry soils tend to increase the lifted condensation level, which is unfavorable to precipitation. But for the negative phase of the NAO, low soil moisture tends to lead to an increase of atmospheric stability while it tends to lead to a decrease of stability for Atlantic Low. Even if the impact of soil moisture anomalies varies depending on large scale circulation (it is larger for Atlantic low and the positive phase of the NAO), dry soils always lead to a decrease in evapotranspiration. As the absolute effect of antecedent soil moisture on evapotranspiration is always much larger than its effects on precipitation, for all circulation regimes dry soil anomalies subsequently lead to positive precipitation minus evapotranspiration anomalies i.e. the total soil moisture feedback is found to be negative. This negative feedback is stronger for the Atlantic Low and the positive phase of the NAO regimes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes climate variability and change in the Urmia Lake Basin, northwest of Iran. Annual average of the following data time series has been analyzed by statistical methods: dry bulb temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and number of rainy and snowy days. We have also used mean monthly temperature and precipitation data for analysis of drought spells for the period 1964-2005 to find out whether fluctuations in the lake level are attributable to natural drought. Our results indicate that mean precipitation has decreased by 9.2 % and the average maximum temperature has increased by 0.8°C over these four decades. The seasonal changes are particularly visible in winter and spring. Results of the Palmer Drought Severity Index show that on average, drought episodes have hit the Urmia Lake Basin every 5 years and most of them reached severe levels, but recent droughts have become more intense and last longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the drought situation in southwestern China with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on multiple time scales. The spatial distribution, seasonal variation and features of drought in southwestern China were examined separately by drought frequency, probability of non-exceedance and runs theory. The results showed that the precipitation sequence will change suddenly near 2073 and an obvious, long-term drought will occur after 2073 due to the decline in precipitation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency indicated that the drought frequency will grow obviously in 2071–2100, and the growth rate will increase from the peripheral to the center of the region. The probability of non-exceedance for SPEI-1 less than − 1.0 will be 14.6% in the spring of 2011–2040, grow in 2041–2070 and reach 25.9% in 2071–2100, while that of SPEI in winter will gradually increase in all periods. When the SPEI-12 is smaller than − 1.0, the non-exceedance probability of the index in all seasons of 1981–2100 was and will be growing gradually, indicating that climate change has and will cause severe droughts in spring and winter from 1981 through 2100, especially the medium- and long-term drought. Through the analysis of the SPI and SPEI time sequences by runs theory, it is observed that the drought severity predicted by SPI-12 was and will be increasing over time, and the long-term drought will become more serious. On all time scales, if the SPEI is smaller than − 1.0, the drought duration will gradually increase from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100, indicating the drought in the study region will worsen due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Present study attempts to project extreme precipitation indices over 34 different meteorological subdivisions and six homogeneous regions such as Northwest, Central Northeast, Northeast, West Central, Peninsular India and Hilly Region during summer monsoon season in the twenty-first century. For this purpose, the Regional Climate Model version4 (RegCM4) had been run at 50 km horizontal resolution forced with the global model GFDL-ESM2 M, during reference period 1976–2005 for the model validation, and the mid- (2031–2060) and far-future (2070–2099) for projections under RCP8.5 scenario over the South Asia CORDEX domain. In this paper, model simulated precipitation has been validated against IMD, APHRODITE and NCEP/NCAR data sets. The results indicate that RegCM4 captures the important features of seasonal precipitation and various extreme indices over the study area. The RegCM4 has projected an increase in the mean seasonal precipitation by 0.56 mm/day whereas in case of GFDL model the rate is 0.39 mm/day during the far-future relative to the reference period. The heavy precipitation indices are projected to increase more frequently (0.264/decade) than the mean precipitation rate (0.01/decade) over India. The correlations between the extreme precipitation indices and the seasonal mean precipitation are found to be strong. In addition, the consecutive dry days are projected to occur more frequently (3–5 days) over West Central (Telangana, Vidarbha and Marathwada) and west Rajasthan while consecutive wet days are projected to decrease over larger parts of India during far-future. Similarly, 1 day maximum precipitation and the simple daily intensity index are projected to increase consistently from mid- to far- futures over some sub-divisions of West coast, Hilly and Northeast regions. From a spatial probability perspective, model projection indicates more frequent severe drought and flood conditions over India. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extending across three major plateaus, namely the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the Inner Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau and the Loess Plateau, Northwest China has the complex terrain and spatio-temporal climate variations, and is affected by the interactions among different circulation systems, such as the summer monsoon, the westerlies and the plateau monsoon. The understanding of the climate variability, as well as its characteristics and evolution mechanisms in this area has been limited so far. In this paper, the precipitation characteristics and mechanisms in the eastern and western parts of Northwest China during the flood season are compared and analyzed based on the data from 192 national meteorological observational sites in Northwest China in 1961–2016. The results show that, divided by the northern boundary of the East Asian summer monsoon, there are huge differences in the precipitation variation characteristics between the eastern and western parts. The inter-annual variations, inter-decadal variations and total trends in the two parts all show a significant seesaw phenomenon. Moreover, it is found that the seesaw phenomenon of precipitation variation is closely related to the opposite variation between the East Asian summer monsoon index (MI) and the westerly circulation index (WI). In addition, the inverse variations on different time scales are only related to the contributions of precipitation at specific grades. Besides, in the two matching patterns of precipitation in the seesaw phenomenon, the middle and high latitudes are occupied by the "high-low-high" wave trains in the precipitation increases in the east of Northwest China (ENWC) and decreases in the west of Northwest China (WNWC) pattern, meaning precipitation increases in ENWC and decreases in WNWC. Whereas the opposite "low-high-low" wave trains at 500 hPa height are observed in the middle and high latitudes in the WH-EA pattern at 500 hPa height, meaning precipitation increases in WNWC and decreases in ENWC. Thus, the atmosphere circulation situation with two wave train types can support both the precipitation seesaw phenomenon and the opposite variation between MI and WI. Moreover, the seesaw phenomenon is shown to be related to the separate or joint effects of the South Asian High, ENSO and the plateau heating on the common but opposite effect on the summer monsoon and the westerlies, in which the South Asian High probably plays a more critical role. This study could deepen the scientific understanding of precipitation mechanisms and improve the weather forecast technology in Northwest China during the flood season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Translating changes in land surface conditions and climate into changes in precipitation, runoff and flood frequencies over a range of catchment scales is a pressing challenge for hydrologic design and flood risk management today. In this paper, we describe a novel approach for modeling areal runoff frequency from heavy-to-extreme precipitation in large urban areas using a simple but general stochastic model for runoff at point scale and bi- and univariate parametric probability distributions for positive point precipitation and areal runoff, respectively. We apply the approach to the Dallas–Fort Worth area using a 22-year historical multisensor precipitation dataset from the National Weather Service to characterize how the different factors that specify the second-order statistics of precipitation, imperviousness and soil water holding capacity at point scale may shape areal runoff frequency, and to assess how changes in precipitation climatology and land surface conditions may change areal runoff frequency as a function of catchment scale and magnitude of precipitation. The results indicate that areal runoff frequency is impacted most significantly by changes in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of positive point precipitation, water holding capacity of soil, imperviousness, and spatial correlation scale of positive point precipitation given the probability of occurrence of heavy-to-extreme precipitation, and that a very small number of low-order statistics of point precipitation may describe areal runoff frequency given the conditional probability distribution models for point precipitation and areal runoff. The approach presented hence offers a parsimonious physically-based alternative to purely numerical approaches based on integrated modeling, or empirical approaches based solely on statistical modeling toward predictive modeling of areal precipitation and runoff frequencies under changing hydroclimatological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean region is an area potentially vulnerable to climatic changes. In fact, it is characterized by a significant precipitation variability resulting from synoptic dynamics of hazardous events moving and evolving along the Mediterranean basin. In this paper, the results of an investigation on rainfall trend in the Sardinia region are presented. The trend analysis has been performed by means of the Mann–Kendall test and of the Theil–Sen estimator applied on annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. To this aim, a monthly database of precipitation registered at 158 rain gauges, with an average observation of 84 years, was used for the analyses. The results mainly evidenced a rainfall amount reduction in the winter months and an increase during the summer months. The monthly rainfall distribution throughout the year was also investigated by means of the precipitation concentration index (PCI). A negative trend emerged and, more specifically, a tendency towards a more uniform rainfall distribution on the Sardinia region throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010–2039), mid-(2040–2069) and far-(2070–2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea–Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea–Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea–Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea–Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea–Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combining GIS measures and statistic methods, this paper selects the physiographic factors and climatic factors to study the influencing strength and its functional forms of all factors on population density in the LRGR. In addition, this paper simulates the status of population density distribution in the LRGR with the factors influencing the population density distribution. The findings indicate the following circumstances: (1) All natural factors have influence on the spatial pattern of population density in the LRGR, but the influencing extent and forms are quite different. Physiographic factors and traffic network density have great influence on population density, while such factors as temperature and precipitation have little influence on population distribution. The relationship between the population density and the altitude and traffic network density assumes the negative and positive linear correlation trends, while the influence of water system density and slope appears to be the exponential function and logarithmic function separately. (2) The population is scattered throughout LRGR and takes on such features as integral scattering and local concentration because of the influence of natural conditions. Thus, a high population density belt has been formed in the middle of LRGR, and a high population density patch comes into being in the south of LRGR. (3) There is a good linear regression relationship between population density and human activity index (HAI) in the LRGR, which reflects that population density can present the artificial disturbance on natural ecosystem in the LRGR. (4) The increase of population density leads to the decrease of NDVI index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long instrumental records of meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation are very useful for studying regional climate in the past, present, and future. They can also be useful for understanding the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation processes on the regional climate. This paper investigates the monthly, winter, and annual temperature time series obtained from the instrumental records in Zagreb, Croatia, for the period 1864-2010. Using wavelet analysis, the dominant modes of variability in these temperature series are identified, and the time intervals over which these modes may persist are delineated. The results reveal that all three temperature records exhibit low-frequency variability with a dominant periodicity at around 7.7 years. The 7.7-year cycle has also been observed in the temperature data recorded at several other stations in Europe, especially in Northern and Western Europe, and may be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and/or solar/geomagnetic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the study of the impact of precipitation changes on alluvial aquifer systems in Xanthi Prefecture plain region, Greece. Two study areas were investigated, taking into account several hydrological and hydrogeological data for a time period of 23 years (1989-2011) measured and elaborated in the framework of the hydrogeological conceptual model assessment of the aquifer systems. It is considered that the evaluation and presentation of this kind of material is informative and quite necessary enforcing the reliability of the approach of the research presented in this paper. Graphs are designed showing precipitation monthly values and groundwater level fluctuation values recorded by three groundwater level loggers installed at the study areas. The conjunctive and synthetic assessment of the impact of precipitation on groundwater level fluctuation is carried out at three levels regarding precipitation moving average values fluctuation classified into thee time periods, high groundwater level values distinguished in three time periods, and correlation between precipitation moving average values and groundwater level values with temporal discrimination within specific hydrological years. It is concluded that the influence of precipitation on groundwater level fluctuation in the study area can almost responsibly be indicated based on original and reliable data contributing to better understanding and managing the functioning of the investigated aquifer system under several climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Andes Cordillera plays a role in driving moisture and heat from tropical onto subtropical South America. It forces the development of a lee-side trough that covers most of western Argentina and a low-level jet that maximizes over Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and northern Argentina and is tightly linked to precipitation variability over much of central and southeastern South America. Its steep slopes and the large zonal gradients in topography between the Equator and 40°S are misrepresented in climate simulations using Global Climate Models (GCM) with resolutions coarser than about 100 km, since they naturally have a poor representation of the Andes and related circulation features. This paper analyses the impact of varying artificially the altitude of the Andes Cordillera in a GCM as well as increasing the horizontal resolution to study how these variations determine moisture fluxes and precipitation over selected regions of South America. Results show that the height of the Andes is crucial in shaping moisture fluxes pathways onto subtropical South America all year long. In particular, the low-level jet is only simulated when the Andes heights are doubled. At the same time, the relationship between the Andes shape and the location of the Bolivian High in summer is also discussed. In terms of precipitation, the lowest bias in the simulations is achieved when the horizontal resolution is increased, while in particular near the Andes foothills the simulated annual rainfall is largely determined by the Mountains shape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large quantity of organic carbon (C) is stored in northern and elevational permafrost regions. A portion of this large terrestrial organic C pool will be transferred by water into soil solution (~0.4 Pg C yr−1) (1 Pg=1015 g), rivers (~0.06 Pg C yr−1), wetlands, lakes, and oceans. The lateral transport of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is the primary pathway, impacting river biogeochemistry and ecosystems. However, climate warming will substantially alter the lateral C shifts in permafrost regions. Vegetation, permafrost, precipitation, soil humidity and temperature, and microbial activities, among many other environmental factors, will shift substantially under a warming climate. It remains uncertain as to what extent the lateral C cycle is responding, and will respond, to climate change. This paper reviews recent studies on terrestrial origins of DOC, biodegradability, transfer pathways, and modelling, and on how to forecast of DOC fluxes in permafrost regions under a warming climate, as well as the potential anthropogenic impacts on DOC in permafrost regions. It is concluded that: (1) surface organic layer, permafrost soils, and vegetation leachates are the main DOC sources, with about 4.72 Pg C DOC stored in the topsoil at depths of 0-1 m in permafrost regions; (2) in-stream DOC concentrations vary spatially and temporally to a relatively small extent (1-60 mg C L−1) and annual export varies from 0.1-10 g C m-2 yr-1; (3) biodegradability of DOC from the thawing permafrost can be as high as 71%, with a median at 52%; (4) DOC flux is controlled by multiple factors, mainly including vegetation, soil properties, permafrost occurrence, river discharge and other related environmental factors, and (5) many statistical and process-based models have been developed, but model predictions are inconsistent with observational results largely dependent on the individual watershed characteristics and future discharge trends. Thus, it is still difficult to predict how future lateral C flux will respond to climate change, but changes in the DOC regimes in individual catchments can be predicted with a reasonable reliability. It is advised that sampling protocols and preservation and analysis methods should be standardized, and analytical techniques at molecular scales and numerical modeling on thermokarsting processes should be prioritized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we quantify the changes in precipitation distribution in south-western Poland between the periods 1891-1930 and 1981-2010. The average monthly precipitation totals available for 368 and 245 stations, respectively, are spatially interpolated and processed to calculate maps of differences and pluvial continentality indices for both periods. The maps are analysed against changes in atmospheric circulation and take into account the potential role of the mountain barrier of the Sudetes. The main findings are (1) winter totals generally increased in conjunction with a higher frequency of zonal circulation; it is more pronounced in the upper parts of the Sudetes due to orographic effects; (2) a decreased frequency of zonal circulation together with an increased frequency of southern flows has likely led to the reduction of precipitation in spring and autumn. These changes have led to a significant modification of the region's pluvial regime, mostly by decreasing continentality features (especially in the Sudetes and the western lowlands). In addition, the strong sheltering influence of the mountain barrier is observed, driving the preservation or even the enhancement of the continental pluvial characteristics in the north-eastern to eastern foregrounds of the Sudetes. This leads to the conclusion that in areas where long-term observed trends or future projections of precipitation are ambiguous, there may occur significant modifications in regional characteristics, especially as a result of changes in atmospheric circulation modified by local orography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by − 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and − 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comprehensive performance assessment of the empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) technique named EPISODES is presented. Pertaining evaluation analyses consist of multifarious validation experiments as well as various comparisons of EPISODES' projections with those of three RCMs and two ESD methods based on the same GCM scenarios driven by two distinct representative concentration pathways (RCPs). EPISODES combines the downscaling of GCM simulations with a follow-up production of synthetic local time series. EPISODES is a comparably simple, computationally rather inexpensive technique, providing multi-variable and multi-site data that are suitable for being merged in an ensemble of RCM projections. This allows (e.g. for different RCPs) the compilation of large multi member ensembles derived from various GCM simulations via both main downscaling strategies (ESD and RCMs). Evaluation experiments reveal satisfying degrees of compliance between various results generated by EPISODES and observations. The grid cell bias for yearly values, for instance, is mostly less than 0.1∘C for temperature and 10% for precipitation totals. Recorded temperature values and precipitation totals corresponding to their 1st and the 99th percentiles are well represented by EPISODES too. Comparisons of various climate change signals derived by EPISODES and other downscaling approaches, present high levels of agreement as well. Many more findings referring to evaluation experiments and climate change projections are to be found in the paper as well as throughout the "Appendix". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we have put forward a Bayesian framework for the analysis and testing of possible non-stationarities in extreme events. We use the extreme value theory to model temperature and precipitation data in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania. Temporal trends are modeled writing the location parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution in terms of deterministic functions of explanatory covariates. The analyses are performed using synthetic time series derived from a Regional Climate Model. The simulations, performed in an area around the Dar es Salaam city, Tanzania, take into account two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our main interest is to analyze extremes with high spatial and temporal resolution and to pursue this requirement we have adopted an individual grid box analysis approach. The approach presented in this paper is composed of the following key elements: (1) an advanced Bayesian method for the estimation of model parameters, (2) a rigorous procedure for model selection, and (3) uncertainty assessment and propagation. The results of our analyses are intended to be used for quantitative hazard and risk assessment and are presented in terms of hazard curves and probabilistic hazard maps. In the case study we found that for both the temperature and precipitation data, a linear trend in the location parameter was the only model performing better than the stationary one in the areas where evidence against the stationary model exists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines farm household-level impacts of climate change by examining the relationship between climatic variables and Vietnamese agricultural output. The Ricardian technique is applied with panel data which accounts for both adaptation strategies and household characteristics. This study proposes a two-stage Hsiao model to correct for collinearity between climatic variables and individual effects. The results show that in the dry season, increases in temperatures are beneficial to all farms in the warmer southern regions, while increases in precipitation will damage only irrigated farms in the Central and South regions. The impact of higher temperature in the wet season is similar, except that it will negatively affect net revenue of irrigated farms in the long run. More rainfall in the wet season will increase net revenue in the North region only. Finally, this study combines the estimated results with future climate scenarios to predict how future changes in climate will affect farmers on aggregate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the sensitivity of projected future climate changes over China to the horizontal resolution of a regional climate model RegCM4.4 (RegCM), using RCP8.5 as an example. Model validation shows that RegCM performs better in reproducing the spatial distribution and magnitude of present-day temperature, precipitation and climate extremes than the driving global climate model HadGEM2-ES (HadGEM, at 1.875° × 1.25° degree resolution), but little difference is found between the simulations at 50 and 25 km resolutions. Comparison with observational data at different resolutions confirmed the added value of the RCM and finer model resolutions in better capturing the probability distribution of precipitation. However, HadGEM and RegCM at both resolutions project a similar pattern of significant future warming during both winter and summer, and a similar pattern of winter precipitation changes including dominant increase in most areas of northern China and little change or decrease in the southern part. Projected precipitation changes in summer diverge among the three models, especially over eastern China, with a general increase in HadGEM, little change in RegCM at 50 km, and a mix of increase and decrease in RegCM at 25 km resolution. Changes of temperature-related extremes (annual total number of daily maximum temperature > 25 °C, the maximum value of daily maximum temperature, the minimum value of daily minimum temperature in the three simulations especially in the two RegCM simulations are very similar to each other; so are the precipitation-related extremes (maximum consecutive dry days, maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days’ total amount). Overall, results from this study indicate a very low sensitivity of projected changes in this region to model resolution. While fine resolution is critical for capturing the spatial variability of the control climate, it may not be as important for capturing the climate response to homogeneous forcing (in this case greenhouse gas concentration changes). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized spatially by meridionally banded structures fluctuating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CO2 simulation and the model’s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from excessive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from El Niño to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Niño in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variation in vegetation greenness provides good understanding of the sustainable management and monitoring of land surface ecosystems. The present paper discusses the spatial-temporal changes in vegetation and controlling factors in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) using Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period 2001-2013. Theil-Sen Median trend analysis, Pearson correlation coefficients, and residual analysis have been used, which shows decreasing trend of the annual mean NDVI over the whole YRB. Spatially, the regions with significant decreasing trends were mainly located in parts of central YRB, and pronounced increasing trends were observed in parts of the eastern and western YRB. The mean NDVI during spring and summer seasons increased, while it decreased during autumn and winter seasons. The seasonal mean NDVI shows spatial heterogeneity due to the vegetation types. The correlation analysis shows a positive relation between NDVI and temperature over most of the YRB, whereas NDVI and precipitation show a negative correlation. The residual analysis shows an increase in NDVI in parts of eastern and western YRB and the decrease in NDVI in the small part of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the mid-western YRB due to human activities. In general, climate factors were the principal drivers of NDVI variation in YRB in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to understand how large-scale processes, cloud cover and surface fluxes affect the temperature variability over the SIRTA site, near Paris, and in a regional climate simulation performed in the frame of HyMeX/Med-CORDEX programs. This site is located in a climatic transitional area where models usually show strong dispersions despite the significant influence of large scale on interannual variability due to its western location. At seasonal time scale, the temperature is mainly controlled by surface fluxes. In the model, the transition from radiation to soil moisture limited regime occurs earlier than in observations leading to an overestimate of summertime temperature. An overestimate of shortwave radiation (SW), consistent with a lack of low clouds, enhances the soil dryness. A simulation with a wet soil is used to better analyse the relationship between dry soil and clouds but while the wetter soil leads to colder temperature, the cloud cover during daytime is not increased due to the atmospheric stability. At shorter time scales, the control of surface radiation becomes higher. In the simulation, higher temperatures are associated with higher SW. A wet soil mitigates the effect of radiation due to modulation by evaporation. In observations, the variability of clouds and their effect on SW is stronger leading to a nearly constant mean SW when sorted by temperature quantile but a stronger impact of cloud cover on day-to-day temperature variability. Impact of cloud albedo effect on precipitation is also compared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nuclear energy is a very important component of overall power supply in France. If the effects of future extreme weather events or climate shifts are not addressed, energy systems will be highly vulnerable to extreme weather events or shifts in weather patterns, such as changes in precipitation. Because of the deep uncertainties involved in climate projections and response strategies, any strategy implementation should perform adequately regardless of which scenario actually materialises. In this paper, we analyse the effects of drought and heat wave in the French nuclear energy sector using the Strategy Robustness Visualisation Method. The key feature of the method is the modelling of uncertainty of the quantitative indicators by (min, max) values plotted on radar plots such that each strategy option’s performance can be visually inspected for robustness. The method can be utilised as a “module” of its own in different uncertainty management approaches. Based on the case study, the presented adaptation strategies “Maintaining industrial production and final demand” and “Smart grid infrastructure” were more robust than the “No planned or automatic adaptation”. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines an asymmetric spatiotemporal connection and climatic impact between the winter atmospheric blocking activity in the Euro-Atlantic sector and the life cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the period 1950-2012. Results show that, for positive NAO (NAO+) events, the instantaneous blocking (IB) frequency exhibits an enhancement along the southwest-northeast (SW-NE) direction from the eastern Atlantic to northeastern Europe (SW-NE pattern, hereafter), which is particularly evident during the NAO+ decaying stage. By contrast, for negative NAO (NAO−) events, the IB frequency exhibits a spatially asymmetric southeast-northwest (SE-NW) distribution from central Europe to the North Atlantic and Greenland (SE-NW pattern, hereafter). Moreover, for NAO− (NAO+) events, the most marked decrease (increase) in the surface air temperature (SAT) in winter over northern Europe is in the decaying stage. For NAO+ events, the dominant positive temperature and precipitation anomalies exhibit the SW-NE-oriented distribution from western to northeastern Europe, which is parallel to the NAO+-related blocking frequency distribution. For NAO- events, the dominant negative temperature anomaly is in northern and central Europe, whereas the dominant positive precipitation anomaly is distributed over southern Europe along the SW-NE direction. In addition, the downward infrared radiation controlled by the NAO’s circulation plays a crucial role in the SAT anomaly distribution. It is further shown that the NAO’s phase can act as an asymmetric impact on the European climate through producing this asymmetric spatiotemporal connection with the Euro-Atlantic IB frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As climate change continues to alter local weather patterns, it is important to understand how people are experiencing such changes because personal experience may affect mitigation and adaptation policy preferences and behaviors. Local weather conditions are also an easily accessible source of information that, aggregated over time, may enable people to detect long-term climate trends and update their beliefs about global warming. However, motivated reasoning—the tendency to fit information to conclusions that correspond with a preexisting belief—may limit the accuracy of local weather perceptions. This paper focuses on perceptions of seasonal weather in Norway and examines evidence for motivated reasoning consistent with pre-existing beliefs about climate change, using a national panel survey combined with high-resolution seasonal climate observations. Respondents’ perceptions are sensitive to observed differences in both temperature and precipitation, but respondents are more likely to accurately perceive local precipitation than local temperature. Controlling for observed conditions, beliefs about global climate change had a large effect on perceptions of seasonal temperature, and smaller effects on perceptions of seasonal precipitation. These findings provide evidence that individual perceptions of seasonal weather are related to local conditions, but they are also likely to be motivated by beliefs about global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper analyzes the results ofthe numerical experiment aiming at the reconstruction of climate ofthe penultimate (Eemian) interglacial (last interglacial, LIG) obtained using the Earth system model developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS. Orbital parameters were set with the periodicity of one thousand years and were further interpolated with the time step of 100 years. Assuming that during the LIG the concentrations of greenhouse gases were not very much different from the preindustrial values, this potential forcing was neglected. The climatic block of the ESM was called every 100 model years to foltow changes in orbital forcmg. The sub-models of ice sheets were asynchronously coupled to the sub-models of the atmosphere and the ocean with the ratio of model years as 100 to 1. Obtained anomaly (Eemian versus preindustrial) fields of surface air temperature generally correspond to the results of the earlier studies. Changes in the structure of the global atmospheric circulation resulted in the transformation ofthe precipitation field in some world regions. In particular, precipitation growth in North Africa was the reason for the radical change of landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on hydrological and climatic data covering the period from 1961 to 2008, this paper studies the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the Ebinur Lake Catchment. The results show that the annual runoff of three rivers in Ebinur Lake Catchment exhibited different change trends. Specifically, in Jinghe River and Kuytun River exhibited a slightly increasing trend, but an adverse trend in Bortala River, and the variation trend has been the most dramatic since the mid-1990s. The observed variation in the runoff was resulted from the elevated alpine precipitation, rather than rising temperature, and that precipitation is a major factor for runoff generation. The runoff CAR model proposed by this paper can be used to predict the annual runoff in three rivers, and demonstrated annual runoff in Bortala River and Jinghe River will display an increased trend, while a less decreasing trend in Kuytun River under the climate change scenarios of warm-humid variation. In addition, the exploitation of the area of cultivated land led to more water resources consumption, primarily for agriculture irrigation, is the cause of the persistently ecoenvironment degradation, which have reached in a critical state thus, a more pressing concern is the development a scientifically reasonable and administratively practical water resource management scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On a hemispheric scale, it is now well established that stratospheric ozone depletion has been the principal driver of externally forced atmospheric circulation changes south of the Equator in the last decades of the 20th Century. The impact of ozone depletion has been felt over the entire hemisphere, as reflected in the poleward drift of the midlatitude jet, the southward expansion of the summertime Hadley cell and accompanying precipitation trends deep into the subtropics. On a regional scale, however, surface impacts directly attributable to ozone depletion have yet to be identified. In this paper we focus on South Eastern South America (SESA), a region that has exhibited one of the largest wetting trends during the 20th Century. We study the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation using output from 6 different climate models, spanning a wide range of complexity. In all cases we contrast pairs of model integrations with and without ozone depletion, but with all other forcings identically specified. This allows for unambiguous attribution of the computed precipitation trends. All 6 climate models consistently reveal that stratospheric ozone depletion results in a significant wetting of SESA over the period 1960-1999. Taken as a whole, these model results strongly suggest that the impact of ozone depletion on SESA precipitation has been as large as, and quite possibly larger than, the one caused by increasing greenhouse gases over the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central and Eastern European countries are a hotspot area when analyzing the impacts of climate change on agricultural and environmental sectors. This paper conducts a socio-economic evaluation of climate risks on crop production in Hungary, using panel data models. The region has a special location in the Carpathian basin, where the spatial distribution of precipitation varies highly from humid conditions in the western part to semiarid conditions in eastern Hungary. Under current conditions, crop systems are mainly rainfed, and water licences are massively underexploited. However, water stress projected by climate change scenarios could completely change this situation. In the near future (2021-2050), most of the crops examined could have better climatic conditions, while at the end of the century (2071-2100), lower yields are expected. Adaptation strategies must be based on an integrated evaluation which links economic and climatic aspects, and since the results show important differences in the case of individual systems, it is clear that the response has to be crop and region specific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is introduced to analyze the input-output efficiency of energy consumption and economic indicators in Beijing city under the influence of short-term climatic factors. Total energy consumption, fixed asset investment, average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, average wind velocity and the average pressure being employed as the input variables, gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita disposable income being employed as the output variables, effective technology and the validity of the scale of DEA of 31 decision-making units ( DMUs) under the influence of the short-term climatic factors are analyzed, and the inefficient DMUs are improved. Empirical analysis shows that both energy consumption and economic growth are sensitive to short-term climate condition, and the reasonable employing of extreme climatic conditions is a question worthy of consideration. This study provides effective basis for the scientific and reasonable arrangement of Beijing city's short-term climatic resources and energy-economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possible change in the characteristics of weather in the future should be considered as important as the mean climate change because the increasing risk of extremes is related to the variability on daily time scales. The weather characteristics can be represented by the climatological mean interdiurnal (day-to-day) variability (MIDV). This paper first assessed the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project coupled climate models’ capability to represent MIDV for the surface maximum and minimum temperature, surface wind speed and precipitation under the present climate condition. Based on the assessment, we selected three best models for projecting future change. We found that the future changes in MIDV are characterized by: (a) a marked reduction in surface maximum and minimum temperature over high latitudes during the cold season; (b) a stronger reduction in the surface minimum temperature than in the maximum temperature; (c) a reduction in surface wind speed over large parts of lands in Northern Hemisphere (NH) during NH spring; (d) a noticeable increase in precipitation in NH mid-high latitudes in NH spring and winter, and in particular over East Asia throughout most of the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terms 'weather extremes' and 'climate extremes' are widely used in meteorology, often in relation to climate change. This paper reviews the empirical investigations into parallel changes in extreme events and climate change published in recent years and looks at their relevance for the global energy system. Empirical investigation into the correlation of extremes with global warming covers five groups: changes in temperature, precipitation, wind (storm) extremes, tropical and extra-tropical circulation phenomena. For temperature extremes, extensive analyses demonstrate that extreme hot days and nights will likely become more frequent, and extreme cold days and nights less frequent. Intense precipitation events will likely become more frequent in most continental regions. Scientific confidence in the trends of the frequency, duration, and intensity of tropical cyclones, is still low. A poleward shift is observed for extratropical cyclones, whereas no convincing tendencies of many smaller-scale phenomena, for example, tornados, or hail, can yet be detected. All these extremes have serious implications for the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective national and regional policy guidance on climate change adaptation relies on robust scientific evidence. This two-part series of papers develops and implements a novel scenario-neutral framework enabling an assessment of the vulnerability of flood flows in British catchments to climatic change, to underpin the development of guidance for the flood management community. In this first part, the sensitivity of the 20-year return period flood peak (RP20) to changes in precipitation (P), temperature (T) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) is systematically assessed for 154 catchments. A sensitivity domain of 4,200 scenarios is applied combining 525 and 8 sets of P and T/PE mean monthly changes, respectively, with seasonality incorporated using a single-phase harmonic function. Using the change factor method, the percentage change in RP20 associated with each scenario of the sensitivity domain is calculated, giving flood response surfaces for each catchment. Using a clustering procedure on the response surfaces, the 154 catchments are divided into nine groups: flood sensitivity types. These sensitivity types show that some catchments are (very) sensitive to changes in P but others buffer the response, while the location of catchments of the same type does not show any strong geographical pattern. These results reflect the range of hydrological processes found in Britain, and demonstrate the potential importance of catchment properties (physical and climatic) in the propagation of change in climate to change in floods, and so in characterising the sensitivity types (covered in the companion paper). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to determine and visualize the trends by considering the value via Şen’s innovative trend analysis methodology, which has been suggested instead of the well-known approaches called Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s rho (SR), Sen’s slope, and linear regression methodologies. Another attempt is to show that an additional trend approach by using half time series methodology (HTSM) including MK’s Z value, and to compare it with the innovative method. Although, Şen’s method is practical, easy and clear representation of data variation, but some information is not evident on time series. This study comprises 66-year rain gage records in Adana, İzmir, and Rize stations located in different regions of Turkey. The comparison results indicated different trend conditions for these stations. Based on this information, representative figures are obtained according to Şen’s and HTSM for the precipitation records. According to Şen’s method, Adana and Rize stations’ measurements have no trend component but İzmir data have monotonically increasing trend. HTSM results reveal some additional information on Şen’s half time series approach. Adana station time series halves include opposite trends (increasing-decreasing) detected by HTSM in spite of no trend. Different extreme cases are encountered in İzmir and Rize stations through HTSM. As a result, if the proposed method is combined with Şen’s method, better trend analysis results can be obtained for detailed interpretations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]