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The Mediterranean region is an area potentially vulnerable to climatic changes. In fact, it is characterized by a significant precipitation variability resulting from synoptic dynamics of hazardous events moving and evolving along the Mediterranean basin. In this paper, the results of an investigation on rainfall trend in the Sardinia region are presented. The trend analysis has been performed by means of the Mann–Kendall test and of the Theil–Sen estimator applied on annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. To this aim, a monthly database of precipitation registered at 158 rain gauges, with an average observation of 84 years, was used for the analyses. The results mainly evidenced a rainfall amount reduction in the winter months and an increase during the summer months. The monthly rainfall distribution throughout the year was also investigated by means of the precipitation concentration index (PCI). A negative trend emerged and, more specifically, a tendency towards a more uniform rainfall distribution on the Sardinia region throughout the year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate variability has been a threat to the socio-economic development of Ethiopia. This paper examined the changes in rainfall, minimum, and maximum temperature extremes of Jemma Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue Nile Basin for the period of 1981 to 2014. The nonparametric Mann-Kendall, seasonal Mann-Kendall, and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate annual trends. Ten rainfall and 12 temperature indices were used to study changes in rainfall and temperature extremes. The results showed an increasing trend of annual and summer rainfall in more than 78% of the stations and a decreasing trend of spring rainfall in most of the stations. An increase in rainfall extreme events was detected in the majority of the stations. Several rainfall extreme indices showed wetting trends in the sub-basin, whereas limited indices indicated dryness in most of the stations. Annual maximum and minimum temperature and extreme temperature indices showed warming trend in the sub-basin. Presence of extreme rainfall and a warming trend of extreme temperature indices may suggest signs of climate change in the Jemma Sub-Basin. This study, therefore, recommended the need for exploring climate induced risks and implementing appropriate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yangtze River has been subject to heavy flooding throughout history, and in recent times severe floods such as those in 1998 have resulted in heavy loss of life and livelihoods. Dams along the river help to manage flood waters, and are important sources of electricity for the region. Being able to forecast high-impact events at long lead times therefore has enormous potential benefit. Recent improvements in seasonal forecasting mean that dynamical climate models can start to be used directly for operational services. The teleconnection from El Niño to Yangtze River basin rainfall meant that the strong El Niño in winter 2015/16 provided a valuable opportunity to test the application of a dynamical forecast system. This paper therefore presents a case study of a real-time seasonal forecast for the Yangtze River basin, building on previous work demonstrating the retrospective skill of such a forecast. A simple forecasting methodology is presented, in which the forecast probabilities are derived from the historical relationship between hindcast and observations. Its performance for 2016 is discussed. The heavy rainfall in the May-June-July period was correctly forecast well in advance. August saw anomalously low rainfall, and the forecasts for the June-July-August period correctly showed closer to average levels. The forecasts contributed to the confidence of decision-makers across the Yangtze River basin. Trials of climate services such as this help to promote appropriate use of seasonal forecasts, and highlight areas for future improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer precipitation anomalies over eastern China are characterized spatially by meridionally banded structures fluctuating on interannual and interdecadal timescales, leading to regional droughts and floods. In addition to long-term trends, how these patterns may change under global warming has important implications for agricultural planning and water resources over this densely populated area. Using the latest Hadley Centre climate model, HadGEM3-GC2, this paper investigates the potential response of summer precipitation patterns over this region, by comparing the leading modes between a 4×CO2 simulation and the model’s pre-industrial control simulation. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses show that the first two leading modes account for about 20% of summer rainfall variability. EOF1 is a monopole mode associated with the developing phase of ENSO events and EOF2 is a dipole mode associated with the decaying phase of ENSO. Under 4×CO2 forcing, the dipole mode with a south-north orientation becomes dominant because of a strengthened influence from excessive warming of the Indian Ocean. On interdecadal time scales, the first EOF looks very different from the control simulation, showing a dipole mode of east-west contrast with enhanced influence from high latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the temporal and spatial changes in the amount and variability of rainfall in Scotland. The sequential Mann-Kendall test reveals that total annual precipitation has increased across Scotland since the 1970s with increasing trends in variability beginning between the mid-1960s and the mid-1970s. Whilst temporally consistent increasing trends in precipitation totals prevail in the West, many weather stations in the East have experienced subsequent trend turning points in the following two decades, explaining the larger magnitude of the trends in western Scotland in recent decades. Trend analyses on six measures of rainfall variability indicate an increase in rainfall variability during the period 1961-2000, as measured by the intra-annual variance, the winter to summer precipitation ratio and the annual cumulative sum range, with decreasing trends observed in the number of dry days. Periodicities associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation could explain the observed temporal variability of rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A revised 25-point Shuman-Shapiro Spatial Filter (RSSSF) has been applied to six atmospheric circulation models and multi-model ensemble (MME) predictions, and its effect on the improvement of model forecast skill scores of the Asian summer precipitation anomaly is discussed in this paper. On the basis of 21-yr model ensemble predictions, the RSSSF can remove the unpredictable ‘noise’ with respect to the 2-grid wavelength in the model precipitation anomaly fields and maintain the large-scale counterpart, which is related to the response of the model to large-scale boundary forcing. Therefore, this could possibly enhance the forecast skill of the Asian summer rainfall anomaly in the models and the MME. The potential improvement of model forecasting skill is found in the Asian summer monsoon region, where the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) has been improved by 7–40%, corresponding to the decreased root mean square error (RMSE) in the model and the MME precipitation anomaly forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper lies in the identification of possible significant linear trends at monthly, seasonal and annual timescales in the Mediterranean during the second half of the 20th century. Monthly and daily records of 63 stations have been used to elaborate several precipitation indices: sum of daily precipitation (SDP) for rainfall >0.1 mm, >10 mm and >95th percentile, of number of rainy days (RD) >0.1 mm and >10 mm and of mean daily precipitation (MDP) >0.1 mm and >10 mm. For each index the stations have been gathered together by Rotated Principal Component Analyses to determine 8 sub-areas which can be considered as identical for all the timescales at the spatial scale of the research. Trends have been estimated from the scores of each eigenvector retained in all RPCAs. They are mainly non existant or non significant decreasing, even if a few monthly trends appear to be significantly diminishing, primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region, October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and the year in Greece, winter and the year in Italy and winter in the Near East and increasing in April in the two gulfs. Correlation coefficients between SDP>0.1 mm and other indices have been computed: the significant trends seem mainly related to RD>10 mm, which represents a high percentage of the total rainfall amount. Greece is remarkable: SDP>0.1 mm and >10 mm decrease significantly during January, winter, the rainy season and the entire year whereas SDP>95th percentile increases significantly, in accordance with the climatic change scenarios for the end of this century as does the decreasing of the total monthly and seasonal rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in precipitation exert an enormous impact on human life, and it is of vital importance to study regular patterns of meteorological and hydrological events. In order to explore the changing spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation amounts, precipitation extremes and precipitation concentration in Jiangxi province in southeast China between 1960 and 2008, several precipitation indices series were analysed using the Mann-Kendall test in this study. Our results indicate remarkable differences among the stations with negative and positive precipitation trends at the annual, seasonal and monthly scales, significant increasing trends are mainly found during January, August, winter and summer, while significant decreasing trends mostly are observed during October and autumn. For precipitation extremes, most precipitation indices suggest that both the intensity and the days of extreme precipitation are increasing; the mean precipitation amount, especially, on a wet day shows a significant positive trend. When it comes to precipitation concentration, the monthly rainfall heterogeneity shows an insignificant downward trend, while the contribution of the days with greatest rainfall displays an insignificant upward trend. Furthermore, the long-range persistence is detected for changing process of precipitation amount, extreme precipitation and precipitation concentration using the Rescaled Range Analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to air temperature at 2 m above ground, the following water balance components are considered: precipitation amount, potential and real evapotranspiration, surface runoff, recharge of water into the soil, loss of water from the soil, soil moisture content, and measured river discharge. Monthly air temperature and values of all water balance components (some of calculated using the Palmer method) have been considered for 24 weather stations across Croatia for the period 1951–2000, and for the Zagreb-Grič station for a much longer period, 1862–2000. The Sava River discharge for two hydrological stations (Zagreb and Županja) for the period 1931–2000 has also been used. Twenty-five year moving averages have been calculated from annual mean values and, – for air temperature only, a principal component analysis has been performed. We have found a long-term positive trend in air temperature, and potential and real evapotranspiration; and a negative trend in runoff (discharge) over almost the whole of Croatia, while the moving-average precipitation amounts show cyclical variation. No obvious trend for the recharge of water into the soil and its losses from the soil have been found, however, a negative trend in soil moisture content has been observed. The positive trends in air temperature and potential (real) evapotranspiration and the negative trends in soil moisture content and runoff (discharge) are consistent (to some degree) with recent global climate warming. This fact strengthens the importance of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sequence of wildfires followed by debris flows, frequently affects southern California, reflecting its drought-heavy precipitation climate bipolarity. Organic debris from incomplete burning is lighter than inorganic matter, and partially inviscid. Hence lower rainfall totals can trigger downslope motion than typically required by the underlying clasts of loose inorganic granular material. After advection downslope, the pebble-laden organic debris has a higher capacity for rilling; a positive feedback process. A mechanism is proposed whereby boulders are 'rafted' by organic debris. This coordinated movement of boulders greatly enhances the debris flow erosion capacity. This climate change sensitive debris flow enhancing mechanism, through organic–inorganic granular material interaction, is supported by observations and the numerical simulations. Using a model explicitly parameterizing erosion processes, including runoff entrainment, rilling incision, and bank collapse, the lifecycle of the Montecito debris flow of January 9, 2018 is simulated, providing quantitative estimates of mass conveyed and debris sorting at the terminus. Peak rafting speeds are ~ 12.9 m/s at ~ 300 m asl. Total boulder (effective diameter > 25 cm) volume involved for the Ysidro Creek area alone is ~ 5 × 104 m3, scattered between the region 50–260 m asl. Debris flows are highly repeatable and locations prone to debris flows are identified and their likelihood of realization estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a globally warming world, subtropical regions are generally expected to become drier while the tropics and mid-high latitudes become wetter. In line with this, Southwest China, close to 25°N, is expected to become increasingly prone to drought if annual mean precipitation decreases. However, despite this trend, changes in the temporal distribution of moisture supply might actually result in increased extreme rainfall in the region, whose climate is characterized by distinct dry and wet seasons. Using hourly and daily gauge observations, rainfall intensity changes since 1971 are examined for a network of 142 locations in the region. From the analysis, dry season changes are negligible but wet season changes exhibit a significantly strong downward trend [−2.4% (10 yr)−1], particularly during the past 15 years [−17.7% (10 yr)−1]. However, the intensity of events during the wettest of 5% hours appears to steadily increase during the whole period [1.4% (10 yr)−1], tying in with government statistical reports of recent droughts and flooding. If the opposing trends are a consequence of a warming climate, it is reasonable to expect the contradictory trend to continue with an enhanced risk of flash flooding in coming decades in the region concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation changes such as more frequent drought and altered precipitation seasonality may impose substantial impacts on the structure and functioning of forest ecosystems. A better understanding of tree responses to precipitation changes can provide fundamental information for the conservation and management of forests under future climate regimes. We conducted a 2-year seasonal rainfall redistribution experiment to assess the responses of tree transpiration and growth to manipulated precipitation changes in a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest. Three precipitation treatments were administered including a drier dry season and wetter wet season treatment (DD), an extended dry season and wetter wet season treatment (ED), and an ambient control treatment, with the total amount of annual rainfall being kept the same among the three treatments. Our results showed that the DD and ED treatments reduced daily transpiration of Schima superba by 8-16 and 13-25%, respectively. The ED treatment also reduced the DBH increment of larger S. superba individuals. In contrast, neither treatment showed obvious effects on the transpiration and DBH increment of another dominant species Michelia macclurei. However, the transpiration of both species showed clear inter-annual differences between the 2 years with contrasting annual rainfall (2094 vs 1582 mm). S. superba had a lower transpiration-to-precipitation ratio (T/P) compared to M. macclurei and showed decreased sensitivities to total solar radiation and vapor pressure deficit under the DD and ED treatments. These results indicate the deep-rooted S. superba may be suppressed with a lower ability to obtain water and assimilate carbon compared to the shallow-rooted M. macclurei under the precipitation seasonality changes, which could potentially cause shifts in species dominance within the forest community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960- 1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4- year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices.Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide significant power at the 4-year period, which are mainly found during 1970-1980 and after 1992. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this work is to assess changes in three metropolitan regions of Southeast Brazil (Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santos) based on the projections produced by the Eta Regional Climate Model (RCM) at very high spatial resolution, 5 km. The region, which is densely populated and extremely active economically, is frequently affected by intense rainfall events that trigger floods and landslides during the austral summer. The analyses are carried out for the period between 1961 and 2100. The 5-km simulations are results from a second downscaling nesting in the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations. Prior to the assessment of the projections, the higher resolution simulations were evaluated for the historical period (1961-1990). The comparison between the 5-km and the coarser driver model simulations shows that the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature of the 5-km Eta simulations are in good agreement with the observations. The simulated frequency distribution of the precipitation and temperature extremes from the 5-km Eta RCM is consistent with the observed structure and extreme values. Projections of future climate change using the 5-km Eta runs show stronger warming in the region, primarily during the summer season, while precipitation is strongly reduced. Projected temperature extremes show widespread heating with maximum temperatures increasing by approximately 9 °C in the three metropolitan regions by the end of the century in the RCP8.5 scenario. A trend of drier climate is also projected using indices based on daily precipitation, which reaches annual rainfall reductions of more than 50 % in the state of Rio de Janeiro and between 40 and 45 % in São Paulo and Santos. The magnitude of these changes has negative implications to the population health conditions, energy security, and economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation and its extremes are of significance for drought and flood warning and monitoring. This study evaluates the capability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 V7 to detect rainfall events, especially extreme precipitation events, using gauge observations for the period 1998-2012 over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon area. The results show that 3B42 V7 performs better at monthly and annual scales than at a daily scale. Spatially or seasonally, the rainfall pattern is more effectively captured by 3B42 V7 for the wet region or season than for the dry region or season. 3B42 V7 displays a positive relative bias in most areas, and the largest is situated in high latitude region, while negative relative bias is found at coastal regions. 3B42 V7 tends to overestimate at low and middle rainfall intensity (RI) ranges (RI <50 mm/day) but underestimate at high RI range (RI ≥50 mm/day). Overall, the total rainfall amount (PRETOT) and extreme precipitation amount (EPRETOT, above 95th percentile of daily rainfall) are slightly overestimated by 3B42 V7, while EPRETOT exhibits a lower correlation with observations than PRETOT does. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) are higher than 50 % relative to rain gauges for eight extreme precipitation indices except the maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), demonstrating that extreme precipitation estimates of 3B42 V7 are generally unreliable. The improvement of 3B42 V7 in capturing extreme precipitation events is anticipated through extensive efforts for its wide range of climate and hydrological applications. Overall, this study provides an evaluation of the quality of TMPA 3B42 V7 in estimating precipitation and its extremes in a mid-altitude and semi-humid monsoon region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents future changes in extreme precipitation as projected within the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project's regional climate ensemble for south-east Australia. Model performance, independence and projected future changes were considered when designing the ensemble. We applied a quantile mapping bias correction to the climate model outputs based on theoretical distribution functions, and the implications of this for the projected precipitation extremes is investigated. Precipitation extremes are quantified using several indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices set of indices. The bias correction was successful in removing most of the magnitude bias in extreme precipitation but does not correct biases in the length of maximum wet and dry spells. The bias correction also had a relatively small effect on the projected future changes. Across a range of metrics, robust increases in the magnitude of precipitation extreme indices are found. While these increases are often in-line with a continuation of the trends present over the last century, they are not found to be statistically significant within the ensemble as a whole. The length of the maximum consecutive wet spell is projected to remain at present-day levels, while the length of the maximum dry spell is projected to increase into the future. The combination of longer dry spells and increases in extreme precipitation magnitude indicate an important change in the character of the precipitation time series. This could have considerable hydrological implications since changes in the sequencing of events can be just as important as changes in event magnitude for hydrological impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the possible influence of the springtime Arctic oscillation (AO) on precipitation along the East Asian rain belt has been studied for the period of 1979 to 2014. To capture the features of the large-scale variability of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation, singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis was performed. The domain for precipitation is from 21.25 to 33.75° N and 111.25 to 133.25° E, and the 1000 hPa heights are from 20° N northward. Prior to analysis, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals were linearly fitted and subtracted from the variables of interest. The first paired modes explain 51.1 % of the total squared covariance. The spatial feature of the pressure mode is almost identical to that of the positive AO pattern, while the precipitation mode displays an overall less-than-normal anomaly along the rain belt. The AO indices are highly correlated with the time coefficients of the pressure mode at a value of 0.91, and for the time coefficients of the precipitation mode, the correlation is −0.44, both of which are significant at the 99 % level. The regional atmospheric circulation anomalies in association with the negative phase AO mode display consistent changes, including the anomalous southerly winds and vapor flux convergence in the lower troposphere over East Asia, the stronger East Asian westerly jet stream, and the enhanced ascending air motion between 20 and 30° N. There are two possible mechanisms linking the AO and East Asian circulation and precipitation, i.e., the wave-trains along the westerly jet stream from North Africa to the Middle East and East Asia and the dipole of an anti-cyclone and a cyclone over the North Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become an important issue for scientific community, for its numerous impacts, especially on agriculture and environment. To shed light on this phenomenon, long data-sets of meteorological data as well as temperature and rainfall extreme events are needed, since they are important climate variability indicators. In a small semi-agricultural catchment of the Italian Apennines, drained by the Centonara Stream, weather data have been monitored for 30 years (1986-2015). Here, their trend was identified with Mann-Kendall test, and the temperature and precipitation extremes were characterized by means of specific indices. Data were analyzed at event, daily, seasonal, and annual bases. In addition, to understand implications of rainfall patterns on catchment hydrological response, a total of 388 rainfall-streamflow events (recorded during 1994-2009) were analyzed. Results showed a significant increase of temperature (minimum (Tn), mean (Tm), and maximum (Tx)), both at annual and seasonal base, except for Winter, with an annual mean increase of 0.08, 0.09, and 0.13 °C year for Tn, Tm, and Tx, respectively. Annual rainfall data showed a positive trend for the number of wet days, but not in the quantity. In Winter, the rainfall amount and the number of wet days increased. The annual number of rainfall extreme events ( P > 20.2 mm and D > 18.3 h) significantly increased, especially in spring and autumn. The rainfall-streamflow relationship suggested that the flow response of the Centonara Stream depends mainly on the rainfall amount. So, since the number of extreme events ( P > 20.2 mm) is increasing in spring and autumn, an increase of events with high streamflow in these seasons may occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring possible relationships between climate-induced maize yield and rainy-season precipitation under climate change is fundamental to science-based decision for food security in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR). To determine the relationship of maize yield with precipitation variables across IMAR during 1960-2012, we selected 11 precipitation indices of rainy season and divided IMAR into four sub-regions-west, middle, east, and northeast using principal component analysis and K-means clustering methods. Results show that climate-induced maize yield is more sensitive to precipitation variability in the west and middle IMAR. The most important precipitation factor that limits maize yield is moderate precipitation days in these two sub-regions. Moreover, west and middle Inner Mongolia was dominated by decreasing precipitation during the rainy season. Furthermore, the El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation cycle has the significant influence on the rainy-season precipitation in the west and middle IMAR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soils in temperate forests ecosystems are the greatest terrestrial CH sink globally. Global and regional circulation models predict decreased average rainfall, increased extreme rainfall events and increased temperatures for many temperate ecosystems. However, most studies of soil CH uptake have only considered extended periods of drought rather than an overall decrease in rainfall amount. We measured soil CH uptake from March 2010 to March 2012 after installing passive rainfall reduction systems to intercept approximately 40% of throughfall in a temperate broadleaf evergreen eucalypt forest in south-eastern Australia. Throughfall reduction caused an average reduction of 15.1 ± 6.4% (SE) in soil volumetric water content, a reduction of 19.8 ± 6.9% in soil water-filled pore space (%WFPS) and a 20.1 ± 6.8% increase in soil air-filled porosity. In response to these changes, soil CH uptake increased by 54.7 ± 19.3%. The increase in soil CH uptake could be explained by increased diffusivity in drier soils, whilst the activity of methanotrophs remained relatively unchanged. It is likely that soil CH uptake will increase if rainfall reduces in temperate broadleaf evergreen forests of Australia as a consequence of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are investigated for evidence of changes in the statistical distribution of annual total and annual average of monthly daily maxima. In addition, the monthly time series of monthly totals and monthly daily maxima are analysed for three stations for which records exceed 100 years. The monthly series show seasonality and provide evidence of a reduction in rainfall when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is negative, which is modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the monthly series do not provide any evidence of a consistent trend or of any changes in the seasonal pattern. Multivariate analyses, typically used in statistical quality control (SQC), are applied to time series of yearly totals and of averages of the 12 monthly daily maxima, during the common 36-year period. Although there are some outlying points in the charts, there is no evidence of any trend or step changes. However, some supplementary permutation tests do provide weak evidence of an increase of variability of rainfall measures. Furthermore, a factor analysis does provide some evidence of a change in the spatial structure of extremes. The variability of a factor which represents the difference between extremes in the Adelaide Hills and the plains increases in the second 18 years relative to the first 18 years. There is also some evidence that the mean of this factor has increased in absolute magnitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precipitation data from the period 1961-2010 and from a dense rain-gauge network over Croatia is analysed for spatial characteristics of trends in precipitation amounts and precipitation indices. Besides large spatial variability, the area is characterized by large temporal (seasonal) variability. Thus, analysis is performed on annual and seasonal scales over seven predefined subregions. Ten precipitation indices are selected to assess the intensity and frequency of extreme events as well as their contribution to annual and seasonal precipitation changes. The results reveal that the changes in annual and seasonal amounts are predominantly weak. A significant trend is detected only for annual amounts (negative) in the mountainous region and for summer (negative) in the mountainous littoral, mountainous region and central hinterland. A significant positive trend for autumn appears in eastern mainland. Negative trends in summer are associated with a decrease in frequency of moderate wet days, in maximal 1- and 5-day precipitation and in an increase in light precipitation. A negative annual trend is mainly caused by a decrease in frequency of very wet days and their contribution to the total precipitation. A positive autumn trend is associated with more very wet days and an increase of their contribution to the total precipitation as well as an increase in maximal 1- and 5-day precipitation. This study complements the existing analysis of five Croatian secular data series of extreme precipitation indices by involving the whole precipitation dataset since the mid-twentieth century and fills the gap present in the trend assessment of precipitation trends in Mediterranean and Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first decades of the rainfall series of Lisbon have been digitized recently allowing a long-term assessment of the rainfall regime for 150 years of uninterrupted, i.e., the first assessment for the longest continuous precipitation time series in western Iberia. This data has been monitored continuously at the D. Luís observatory having started to be published in 1864 in the Observatory's log books (Annals). We use an approach based on different characteristics of rain spells that has been proved to be satisfactory for the analysis of the different parameters related to the rainfall regime in that part of the world. Thus, a rain spell is defined as a series of consecutive days with a measured daily rainfall equal or higher than 1.0 mm. Each rain spell is preceded and followed by at least one dry day. For each rain spell, its duration, its yield (RSY), and its average intensity (RSI) was calculated. Additionally, the total number of rain spells in each year was also considered. Dryness was analyzed using the dry days since last rain approach. Besides the evaluation over the entire 150-year period available, we have also looked into three equally spaced sub-periods. Lisbon reveals large inter-annual and intra-annual variability and both have increased considerably in the last decades. The large intra-annual variability is demonstrated by both; a very large range of annual rainfall percentage accumulated at any given date and by a very large range of dates on which a certain rainfall percentage was accumulated. Again, both metrics increased in the last decades. Parallel to the increase in the uncertainty, a very significant net increase is noticed in the annual totals since the 1960s compared to the first half of the previous century. The increase is mainly due to more intense events which are reflected by higher RSY and RSI values in the last 50 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to study the spatial and temporal variability of aridity in Iran, through analysis of temperature and precipitation trends during the 48-year period of 1961-2008. In this study, four different aridity criteria have been used to investigate the aridity situation. These aridity indexes included Lang's index or rain factor, Budyko index or radiational index of dryness, UNEP aridity index, and Thornthwaite moisture index. The results of the analysis indicated that the highest and lowest mean temperatures occurred in July and January respectively in all locations. Among the study locations, Ahvaz with 37.1 °C and Kermanshah with 20.2 °C has the highest and lowest in July. For January, the highest was 12.4 °C for Ahvaz and the lowest was −4.5 °C for Hamedan and Kermanshah together. The range of monthly mean temperature of study locations indicated that the maximum and minimum difference between day and night temperatures, almost in all study locations, occurred in September and January, respectively, and the highest and lowest fluctuation of temperature was observed in Kerman and Tehran. The temperature anomalies showed that the most significant increasing temperature occurred at the beginning of twenty-first century (2000-2008) in all locations. The long-term mean of monthly rainfall showed that, in most study locations, the maximum and minimum of mean precipitation occurred in winter and summer, respectively. Rasht with 1,355 mm had the highest and Yazd with 55 mm had the lowest of total precipitation compared with other locations. According to precipitation anomalies, all locations experienced dry and wet periods, but generally dry periods occurred more often especially in the beginning of twenty-first century. According to applied different aridity indexes, all the study locations often experienced semi-arid to arid climate, severe water deficit to desert climate, arid to hyperarid climate, and semi-arid climate during the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfalls with short persistency are the tangible characteristics of arid and semiarid regions such as Iran. Iran is an arid and semiarid region with dramatic tempo-spatial changes of rainfall. In this regard, the short persistency of rainfall is approximately observed from 1 to 7 days in whole parts, while the greater ones are only separated in eastern parts of Iran. According to the results, the rainfall persistency is ranged from 1 to 45 days, but the maximum amount and rainy days are generated by rainfalls with short persistency. So, the rainfall events with long persistency are considered as an extreme event with extreme variability. One-day precipitations generate the maximum rainy days and rainfall amounts, especially in eastern parts of Iran. Decrease in the one-day precipitations contribution to eastern parts may indicate to decrease in regional precipitation. However, decrease in contribution in western parts may indicate to increased amounts of rainfall at other persistency rates. Our results revealed that the contribution of the one-day precipitation to general rainfall has reductive trends in almost 17.5 % of the whole Iran. The most integrated and significant reductive trend of one-day precipitation contribution to rainfall spreads northeastern and eastern parts of Iran. However, in the western parts of Iran, decreasing one-day precipitation contribution to rainy days affects to increase in the diurnal rainfall. The mentioned variability can be considered as the climate change signals in respect of one-day precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A methodology has been applied to investigate the spatial variability and trends existent in a mid-twentieth century climatic time series (for the period 1943-1977) recorded by 58 climatic stations in the Albert-Victoria water management area in Uganda. Data were subjected to quality checks before further processing. In the present work, temporal trends were analyzed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Heterogeneity of monthly rainfall was investigated using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). Results revealed that 53 % of stations have positive trends where 25 % are statistically significant and 45 % of stations have negative trends with 23 % being statistically significant. Very strong trends at 99 % significance level were revealed at 12 stations. Positive trends in January, February, and November at 40 stations were observed. The highest rainfall was recorded in April, while January, June, and July had the lowest rainfall. Spatial analysis results showed that stations close to Lake Victoria recorded high amounts of rainfall. Average annual coefficient of variability was 19 %, signifying low variability. Rainfall distribution is bimodal with maximums experienced in March-April-May and September-October-November seasons of the year. Analysis also revealed that PCI values showed a moderate to seasonal rainfall distribution. Spectral analysis of the time components reveals the existence of a major period around 3, 6, and 10 years. The 6- and 10-year period is a characteristic of September-October-November, March-April-May, and annual time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzed the interdecadal changes in the diurnal variability of summer (June-August) precipitation over eastern China during the period 1966-2005 using hourly station rain gauge data. The results revealed that rainfall diurnal variations experienced significant interdecadal changes. Over the area to the south of the Yangtze River, as well as the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, the percentages of morning rainfall (0000-1200 LST) to total rainfall in terms of amount, frequency and intensity, all exhibited increasing interdecadal trends. On the contrary, over North China, decreasing trends were found. As a result, diurnal rainfall peaks also presented pronounced interdecadal variations. Over the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, there were 16 out of 46 stations with afternoon (1200-0000 LST) frequency peaks in the first 20 years of the 40-year period of study, while only eight remained in the latter 20 years. In North China, seven stations experienced the opposite changes, which accounted for about 21% of the total number of stations. The possible causes for the interdecadal changes in diurnal features were discussed. As the rainfall in the active monsoon period presents morning diurnal peaks, with afternoon peaks in the break period, the decrease (increase) of rainfall in the active monsoon period over North China (the area south of the Yangtze River and the area between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers) may contribute to interdecadal changes in diurnal rainfall variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The south-west of Western Australia has experienced significant land-cover change as well as a decline in rainfall. Given that most precipitation in the region results from frontal passages, the impact of land-cover change on the dynamics of cold fronts is explored using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System version 6.0. Frontal simulations are evaluated against high resolution atmospheric soundings, station observations, and gridded rainfall analyses and shown to reproduce the qualitative features of cold fronts. Land-cover change results in a decrease in total frontal precipitation through a decrease in boundary-layer turbulent kinetic energy and vertically integrated moisture convergence, and an increase in wind speed within the lower boundary layer. Such processes contribute to reduced convective rainfall under current vegetation cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends in climate time series are habitually estimated on the basis of the least-squares method. This estimator is optimal if the residuals follow the Gaussian distribution. Unfortunately, only a small number of observed climate time series fulfil this assumption. This work introduces a robust method for trend analyses of non-Gaussian climate variables. Robust trend analyses as well as probability assessments of extreme events (Trömel and Schönwiese 2006) represent an application of the generalized time series decomposition technique. Trömel (2005) and Trömel and Schönwiese (2005) applied this decomposition technique to monthly precipitation sums from a German station network of 132 time series covering 1901–2000 in order to achieve a statistical modeling of the time series. The time series under consideration can be interpreted as a realization of a Gumbel-distributed random variable with time-dependent scale and location parameter. More precisely, each observed value can be seen as one possible realization of the estimated probability density function (PDF) with the location and the scale parameter of the respective time step. Consequently, the expected value of the Gumbel-distributed random variable can be estimated for every time step of the observation period and the statistical modeling represents an alternative approach to estimate trends in observational precipitation time series. The method is robust with respect to observed high precipitation values. The influence of relatively high precipitation sums is not larger than justified from a statistical point of view and changes in all parameters (here location and scale parameter) of the distribution can be taken into account. Monte-Carlo-simulations demonstrate the smaller mean squared error of the trend estimator using the statistical modeling. The least-squares estimator often shows a positive bias, while the method introduced provides robust monthly trend estimates taken into account the statistical characteristics of precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical days (TD) are defined as the days with a maximum air temperature greater than 30.0 °C. It is clear that the study of TD includes also the absolute maximum temperatures, which are of great interest for the description of a region’s climate. These days are considered as very hot, and they particularly are of great importance not only for bioclimatology and applied sciences, but also for the individuals who are sensitive in the heat-stress. The regime of the TD in Greece is the focus of this study. The aim is to demonstrate their changes from decade to decade, for the time period 1960–2000. For this study, the Annual Number of Tropical Days (ANTD) recorded by each of the 26 meteorological stations of National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed in the Hellenic peninsula, was calculated and analysed. In terms of quantifying the conditions in a humanbiometeorological manner, the thermal index Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and the consecutive days for Athens have been included in this study. The trends of the TD for each station were analysed through the Mann–Kendall technique, while the spatial distribution per decade reveals the regions with change (increase or decrease) in the ANTD during the examined period. Two characteristic periods of change for the ANTD appear in the majority of the meteorological stations in Greece. The first period (1955–1976) is determined by a negative trend, which is statistically significant (c.l. 95%), for adequate stations. In the period between 1976 and 2000, the increase in the ANTD and the maximum temperature exceed the corresponding maximum that appeared in the beginning of the 1950s for several of the examined meteorological stations. The human-biometeorological analysis shows that the consecutive days of PET > 35 °C have had a positive trend in the last two decades of the last century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

(1) The main objectives of this study are the spatial and temporal analysis of annual 24-hour extreme precipitation amounts for different return periods, and (2) the interannual variability of the frequency of month-to-month maximum rainfall using harmonic analysis. Long time series data from 110 well-scattered rain gauges are analysed using extreme values theory and harmonic analysis techniques. The results indicate that the Jenkinson solution is more appropriate than the linear Gumbel solution for the extreme value law. The maximum expected values of 180–200 mm are observed along the southern coasts of the Greek peninsula and in the islands close to the Turkish coast, as well as in the north–west parts of the country. The harmonic analysis showed that the highest percentage of variance for rainfall extremes explained by the first harmonic (PVR(1)) appears over the southern and south-eastern parts of Greece in association with the greatest values of the amplitude of this harmonic, therefore explaining more than 90% of the variation of the frequency of maximum annual 24-hour rainfall amounts. In contrast, for regions north of 38° N and especially mountainous regions, more harmonics (3–5) are necessary to describe the parameter under investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For much of the western USA, precipitation occurs in pulses, the nature of which determine soil water potential and plant physiological performance. This research utilized three experiments to examine the sensitivity of photosynthesis and water relations for two widespread Great Basin Desert shrub species, Artemisia tridentata (which has both deep and shallow roots) and Purshia tridentata (which reportedly has only deep roots), to (1) variation in pulse magnitude size, (2) the kinetics of responses to pulses, and (3) the relationship between pulse-size and antecedent soil water content. At the study site in the southwestern Great Basin Desert, USA, summer rainfall exhibits a greater frequency of larger-sized events, and longer inter-pulse intervals, compared to annual patterns. Compared to pre-watering values, stem water potential initially increased by about 2.00 MPa for A. tridentata and 1.00 MPa for P. tridentata following watering to simulate an 11.5 mm rainfall pulse. For the same water addition, stomatal conductance increased by 0.3 mol m−2 s−1 and photosynthetic CO2 assimilation increased 8-fold for A. tridentata and 6-fold for P. tridentata. Water potential and photosynthetic gas exchange were maximal for both species 2–3 days following a pulse addition. In comparison to P. tridentata, the increase in photosynthesis for A. tridentata was more pronounced for plants treated incrementally with several small pulses compared to plants treated with one pulse of an equivalent total volume. The results indicate that both species can respond to a range of summer rainfall pulse magnitudes within about 2 days, with A. tridentata generally exhibiting larger responses in comparison to the co-dominant shrub species P. tridentata, which at this study site does indeed have shallow roots. In a future climate, the timing and magnitude of summer rainfall pulses will determine the extent to which these two species undergo changes in water status and photosynthetic carbon uptake, with implications for their fitness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatological features and variations of wet spells, especially their trends over China, are investigated using a dataset of 594 meteorological stations across China from 1951 to 2003. The results show that the lower the latitude is, the longer the annual duration of wet spells is. The mean annual precipitation from wet spells is higher in southeastern coastal areas and much lower in western and northern China. The longest wet spells are found in Southwest China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. The maximum daily precipitation of wet spells decreases from the southeast to the northwest, with the highest in southeastern coastal areas and the lowest in western China. The trends of wet spells exhibit striking regional differences. In most areas of western China, the annual number of days in wet spells has slightly increased, but significantly decreased over North China, Central China and Southwest China. The annual precipitation amount from wet spells displays significant downward trends in North China, eastern Northeast China and the eastern part of Southwest China, but upward trends in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and some southeastern coastal areas. Two clearly-contrasting regions in climatic changes of wet spells are the mid-lower reaches of the Yellow River and the eastern Tibetan Plateau, characterized by a decrease of about 24 days and an increase of about 6 days in annual wet spell days from 1953 to 2003, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Regional Climate Model RegCM3 has been used to examine its suitability in simulating the Indian summer monsoon circulation features and associated rainfall. The model is integrated at 55 km horizontal resolution over a South Asia domain for the period April–September of the years 1993 to 1996. The characteristics of wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa, temperature at 500 hPa, surface pressure and rainfall simulated by the model over the Indian region are examined for two convective schemes (a Kuo-type and a mass flux scheme). The monsoon circulation features simulated by RegCM3 are compared with those of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the simulated rainfall is validated against observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Validation of the wind and temperature fields shows that the use of the Grell convection scheme yields results close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Similarly, the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) simulated by the model with the Grell convection scheme is close to the corresponding observed values. In order to test the model response to land surface changes such as the Tibetan snow depth, a sensitivity study has also been conducted. For such sensitivity experiment, NIMBUS-7 SMMR snow depth data in spring are used as initial conditions in the RegCM3. Preliminary results indicate that RegCM3 is very much sensitive to Tibetan snow. The model simulated Indian summer monsoon circulation becomes weaker and the associated rainfall is reduced by about 30% with the introduction of 10 cm of snow over the Tibetan region in the month of April. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Twentieth-century warming could lead to increases in the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere, altering the hydrological cycle and the characteristics of precipitation. Such changes in the global rate and distribution of precipitation may have a greater direct effect on human well-being and ecosystem dynamics than changes in temperature itself. Despite the co-variability of both of these climate variables, attention in long-term climate reconstruction has mainly concentrated on temperature changes. Here we present an annually resolved oxygen isotope record from tree-rings, providing a millennial-scale reconstruction of precipitation variability in the high mountains of northern Pakistan. The climatic signal originates mainly from winter precipitation, and is robust over ecologically different sites. Centennial-scale variations reveal dry conditions at the beginning of the past millennium and through the eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries, with precipitation increasing during the late nineteenth and the twentieth centuries to yield the wettest conditions of the past 1,000 years. Comparison with other long-term precipitation reconstructions indicates a large-scale intensification of the hydrological cycle coincident with the onset of industrialization and global warming, and the unprecedented amplitude argues for a human role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary The main characteristics of the spatial and temporal variability of winter and summer precipitation observed at 30 stations in Serbia and Montenegro were analysed for the period 1951–2000. The rainfall series were examined spatially by means of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and temporally by means of the Mann-Kendall test and spectral analysis. The Alexandersson test was used to detect the inhomogeneity of the data set. The EOF analysis gave three winter and summer dominant modes of variations, which explained 89.7% and 70.4% of the variance, respectively. The time series associated with the first pattern showed a decreasing trend in winter precipitation. The spectral analysis showed a 16-year oscillation for the dominant winter pattern, around a 3-year oscillation for the dominant summer pattern, and a quasi-cycle of 2.5 years for the winter third pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: This article traces the history of scientific ideas connecting forest cover with rainfall to inform ongoing debates about whether forests are net users or producers of water in the hydrological cycle. Scholars of the supply-side school argue that forests are net producers and magnifiers that increase rainfall at regional scales. Supply-side scholars seek to challenge the dominance of demand-side thinking. The demand-side school emphasizes that trees are net users of water within a catchment that decrease overall water available for other users. This scientific debate has significant implications for the development of policies to manage forests and water.Results: Scientists have debated the question of whether forests improve or worsen water balance for over two hundred years. Connections between forests and rainfall gained prominence in scientific circles during the second half of the nineteenth century and again during the past three decades. The popularity of forest-rainfall connections has paralleled societal and scientific interest in anthropogenic climate change and deforestation. Theories connecting forests with rainfall peaked in popularity in the 1850s to 1880s, a period when scientists expressed alarm that deforestation caused regional declines in precipitation. Forests were understood to create rain within a locality and region. Scientific consensus shifted by the early twentieth century to the view that forests did not play a significant role in determining rainfall. The forest-rainfall connection reemerged in the 1980s alongside advances in climate modelling and growing fears of anthropogenic global warming and tropical deforestation. Using new data and theories, supply-side advocates have once again placed a strong forest-rainfall connection into scientific prominence.Conclusion: Supply-side management policies have a checkered history that should elicit caution, while demand-side policies, which are based on almost a century of hydrological research, should not be overturned quickly in regions that face potential water scarcity before more research is conducted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]