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In a warming climate, permafrost is likely to be significantly reduced and eventually disappear from the sub-Arctic region. This will affect people at a range of scales, from locally by slumping of buildings and roads, to globally as melting of permafrost will most likely increase the emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane, which will further enhance global warming. In order to predict future changes in permafrost, it is crucial to understand what determines the presence or absence of permafrost under current climate conditions, to assess where permafrost is particularly vulnerable to climate change, and to identify where changes are already occurring. The Torneträsk region of northern sub-Arctic Sweden is one area where changes in permafrost have been recorded and where permafrost could be particularly vulnerable to any future climate changes. This paper therefore reviews the various physical, biological, and anthropogenic parameters that determine the presence or absence of permafrost in the Torneträsk region under current climate conditions, so that we can gain an understanding of its current vulnerability and potential future responses to climate change. A patchy permafrost distribution as found in the Torneträsk region is not random, but a consequence of site-specific factors that control the microclimate and hence the surface and subsurface temperature. It is also a product of past as well as current processes. In sub-Arctic areas such as northern Sweden, it is mainly the physical parameters, e.g., topography, soil type, and climate (in particular snow depth), that determine permafrost distribution. Even though humans have been present in the study area for centuries, their impacts on permafrost distribution can more or less be neglected at the catchment level. Because ongoing climate warming is projected to continue and lead to an increased snow cover, the permafrost in the region will most likely disappear within decades, at least at lower elevations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past atmospheric methane concentrations show strong fluctuations in parallel to rapid glacial climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere superimposed on a glacial–interglacial doubling of methane concentrations. The processes driving the observed fluctuations remain uncertain but can be constrained using methane isotopic information from ice cores. Here we present an ice core record of carbon isotopic ratios in methane over the entire last glacial–interglacial transition. Our data show that the carbon in atmospheric methane was isotopically much heavier in cold climate periods. With the help of a box model constrained by the present data and previously published results, we are able to estimate the magnitude of past individual methane emission sources and the atmospheric lifetime of methane. We find that methane emissions due to biomass burning were about 45 Tg methane per year, and that these remained roughly constant throughout the glacial termination. The atmospheric lifetime of methane is reduced during cold climate periods. We also show that boreal wetlands are an important source of methane during warm events, but their methane emissions are essentially shut down during cold climate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the warmer climate, predicted for the future, northern peatlands are expected to become drier. This drying will lower the water table and likely result in reduced emissions of methane (CH4) from these ecosystems. However, the prediction of declining CH4 fluxes does not consider the potential effects of ecological succession, particularly the invasion of sedges into currently wet sites (open water pools, low lawns). The goal of this study was to characterize the relationship between the presence of sedges in peatlands and CH4 efflux under natural conditions and under a climate change simulation (drained peatland). Methane fluxes, gross ecosystem production, and dissolved pore water CH4 concentrations were measured and a vegetation survey was conducted in a natural and drained peatland near St. Charles-de-Bellechasse, Quebec, Canada, in the summer of 2003. Each peatland also had plots where the sedges had been removed by clipping. Sedges were larger, more dominant, and more productive at the drained peatland site. The natural peatland had higher CH4 fluxes than the drained peatland, indicating that drainage was a significant control on CH4 flux. Methane flux was higher from plots with sedges than from plots where sedges had been removed at the natural peatland site, whereas the opposite case was observed at the drained peatland site. These results suggest that CH4 flux was enhanced by sedges at the natural peatland site and attenuated by sedges at the drained peatland site. However, the attenuation of CH4 flux due to sedges at the drained site was reduced in wetter periods. This finding suggests that CH4 flux could be decreased in the event of climate warming due to the greater depth to the water table, and that sedges colonizing these areas could further attenuate CH4 fluxes during dry periods. However, during wet periods, the sedges may cause CH4 fluxes to be higher than is currently predicted for climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]