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The long-standing development pattern dominated by international circulation makes China face the risk of "low-end lock-in" and "being decoupling". In addition, the current global climate change and environmental crisis are becoming increasingly severe, coupled with the COVID-19 impact. Chinese enterprises must actively build a green development system for domestic industries in a mutually reinforcing manner in the context of the domestic general circulation, in order to adapt to the new dual circulation environment as soon as possible. This paper analyzes the specific coupling and coordination relationship between the two systems based on the relevant data of China's three major industries from 2008–2014 using Index DEA, entropy value method, gray correlation analysis and coupling coordination model. The results of the study show that: the two systems of dual circulation pattern and industrial green development have a strong correlation and basically present a coupling relationship, but within the industry, there is a problem of the collapse of the tertiary industry. In terms of the type of coupling, the domestic and international circulation in general gradually present the green development leading state, except for the primary industrial segment of the international circulation. On the whole, the coupling quality of the two systems needs to be further improved. Based on this, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: (1) coordinate the internal and external development of the industry; (2) take innovation as the driving force to promote the green transformation of industries; (3) take green sharing as the goal to strengthen the policy orientation of green development; (4) take the opportunity of mutual promotion of dual circulation to stabilize the steady state of green development coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the complex relationship between population change and surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect has important practical significance for the ecological transformation development of shrinking cities in the context of the prevalence of urban shrinkage and the global climate change. This paper compares the population change and SUHI effect between population shrinking region (Northeast Region, NR) and population growing region (Yangtze River Delta, YRD) in China, and explores their differences in driving mechanisms, using GIS spatial analysis and Geodetector model. Our results indicated that there are significant differences in population changes and SUHI intensity between these two regions. About 72.22% of the cities in the NR were shrinking, while their SUHI intensities increased by an average of 1.69°C. On the contrary, the urban population in the YRD shows a linear growth trend, while their SUHI intensities decreased by 0.11°C on average. The results of bivariate Moran's I index also indicated that the spatial correlation between the urban population changes and the SUHI intensity changes are not significant in the above regions. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the primary drivers of SUHI variations between these two regions. In the NR, underlying surface changes, including the changes of green coverage and built-up areas, are the most important driving factors. However, atmospheric environment changes, such as carbon dioxide emission and sulfur dioxide emission, are the key drivers in the YRD. Northam's theory of three-stage urbanization and environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis are powerful to explain these differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, climate change in the Jinping area is investigated. The climate change trend in the Jinping area is studied by plotting the porosity value of the carbonate rocks as a curve. By comparing the curve established using the climate change data from published articles, it is found that the B value curve obtained using the saddle line is the closest to the curve established using the climate change data from published articles. This shows that the carbonate porosity in the Jinping area obtained using an image analysis technique can be used for climate change research., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Kuang et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The excessive carbon emissions not only intensify the global climate change, but also seriously restrict the sustainable development of social economy. However, improving industrial carbon emissions efficiency is the most directly effective way to reduce emissions. Therefore, accurate measurement and analysis of carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China's industrial system is the basis for China to improve carbon emissions efficiency. Based on this, we adopted energy consumption method and input-output method to calculate and analyze the industrial carbon emissions efficiency and evolution characteristics of China from 2002 to 2015. The results show that (1) If carbon emissions from cement production are ignored and only energy-related carbon emissions are considered, the calculation results of carbon emissions efficiency of heavy industry will be overestimated about 30%. (2) Compared with 2002, China's industrial carbon emissions efficiency increased by about twice in 2015. Specifically, the optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in agriculture, construction, light industry and service industry is very obvious, which has increased by 5.65, 5.00, 4.69 and 4.68 times respectively; The optimization of carbon emissions efficiency in power sector, heavy industry, transportation and chemical industry was obvious, which increased by 2.55, 2.01, 1.86 and 1.47 times respectively; The carbon emissions efficiency of the fossil energy sector has decreased by 0.36 times. (3) The carbon emissions efficiency of various industries has significant differences. Among them, agriculture, service industry, light industry and construction industry are generally industries with higher carbon emissions efficiency, while power sector, fossil energy sector, transportation industry, chemical industry and heavy industry are generally industries with lower carbon emissions efficiency, especially power and fossil energy sectors. Based on these, this paper provides policy implications and scientific evidence for accurately improving carbon emissions efficiency from the perspective of carbon emissions efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the context of global warming, compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) will increase and bring serious losses to society and the economy. The projection of CDHEs is of great significance for policy-making and risk assessment. In this paper, two large ensemble simulations, CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, are used to estimate the risk of extreme CDHEs under different warming scenarios in China. First, the biases of the model in the simulation of the temperature and precipitation over the China region are corrected, and the index of CDHEs is established based on a copula function. The results show that extreme CDHEs will occur more often in China with the increase in global warming and the more severe extreme CDHEs are, the greater the risk will be in the future with higher uncertainties. Events that would be attained once every 50 and 100 years in the current climate from CESM-LE (CAanESM2-LE) will be 1.2/1.6 (1.1/1.5) times and 1.3/2.3 (1.5/2.0) times more likely to occur in a 1.5°C/2.0°C warmer climate, respectively. Northwestern China will experience the greatest increase in the risk of extreme CDHEs. Extreme CDHEs expected once every 100 years in the current period over NW China are expected to occur approximately every 5 and 4 years under a 4.0°C warmer world in CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, respectively., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Climate change is one of the most significant causes of species range shift and extinction. Based on a citizen science dataset of birds in China, the Bird Report, we developed a high-resolution map of bird species richness in China, and simulated the range shifts and area changes of the 1,042 birds through the year 2070 using three different General Circulation Models and two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, including RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). It was found that 241-244 (under different scenarios) bird species would lose a portion of their distribution ranges; and that most species in China would move to either higher elevations or northward. The other 798-801 species would experience range expansion. Compared to resident species (n = 516), migratory birds (n = 526) may undergo more limited range expansion but a longer range shift distance on average. The species diversity of birds will considerably increase in areas higher than 1,500 m in elevation under both RCPs. Conservation priorities with higher species richness were also identified using the Zonation model. The existing national nature reserves are not sufficient for protecting important bird habitats, especially after range shifts. Significant gaps in protected areas were observed in the northern Xinjiang, southern Tibet, Greater Khingan, Sanjiang Plain, Songnen Plain, northern Bohai Rim, and southeastern coastline areas. Many of these areas are characterized by high human populations and intensive development, and establishing sizable protected areas has become difficult. Inclusive conservation mechanisms that include restoring habitats in urban parks and sharing habitats in farmland areas, may be a feasible solution., Competing Interests: Beijing Jinglang Ecology and Techniques Co., LTD is the current employer of Ms. Yiyun Gu, but the employment relationship was established after Ms. Gu completed all her research presented in this paper. Beijing Jinglang Ecology and Techniques Co., LTD does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Water resources are indispensable for all social-economic activities and ecosystem functions. In addition, changes in water resources have great significance for agricultural production. This paper uses five global climate models from CMIP5 to evaluate the future spatiotemporal variation in water resources in China under four RCP scenarios. The results show that the available precipitation significantly decreases due to evapotranspiration. Comparing the four RCP scenarios, the national average of the available precipitation is the highest under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, followed by that under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the amount of available precipitation shows a decreasing trend from southeast to northwest. Regarding temporal changes, the available precipitation under RCP 8.5 exhibits a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while the available precipitation under the RCP 6.0 scenario exhibits a trend of first decreasing and then increasing. Under the RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios, the available precipitation increases, and the RCP 4.5 scenario has a higher rate of increase than that of RCP 2.6. In the context of climate change, changes in water resources and temperature cause widespread increases in potential agricultural productivity around Hu's line, especially in southwestern China. However, the potential agricultural productivity decreases in a large area of southeastern China. Hu's line has a partial breakthrough in the locking of agriculture, mainly in eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, northern Yunnan and northwestern Inner Mongolia. The results provide a reference for the management and deployment of future water resources and can aid in agricultural production in China., Competing Interests: No authors have competing interests.

To quantitatively analyze the impact of climate variability and human activities on grassland productivity of China's Qilian Mountain National Park, this study used Carnegic-Ames-Stanford Approach model (CASA) and Integrated Vegetation model improved by the Comprehensive and Sequential Classification System (CSCS) to assess the trends of grassland NPP from 2000 to 2015, the residual trend analysis method was used to quantify the impact of human activities and climate change on the grassland based on the NPP changes. The actual grassland NPP accumulation mainly occurred in June, July and August (autumn); the actual NPP showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase of 2.2 g C·m-2 a-1, while the potential NPP increase of 1.6 g C·m-2 a-1 and human-induced NPP decreased of 0.5 g C·m-2 a-1. The annual temperature showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase of 0.1°C 10a-1, but annual precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend with an average annual increase of 1.3 mm a-1 from 2000 to 2015. The area and NPP of grassland degradation caused by climate variability was significantly greater than that caused by human activities and mainly distributed in the northwest and central regions, but area and NPP of grassland restored caused by human activities was significantly greater than that caused by climate variability and mainly distributed in the southeast regions. In conclusion, grassland in Qilian Mountain National Park showed a trend of degradation based on distribution area, but showed a trend of restoration based on actual NPP. Climate variability was the main cause of grassland degradation in the northwestern region of study area, and restoration of grassland in the eastern region was the result of the combined effects of human activities and climate variability. Under global climate change, the establishment of Qilian Mountain National Park was of great significance to the grassland's protection and the grasslands ecological restoration that have been affected by humans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tree line areas exhibited significant changes in response to climate change, including upward migration. Lower tree line dynamics are rarely studied, but as unique features in arid and semi-arid areas, they may influence forest distribution. Here, eight lower tree line plots in a Picea crassifolia Kom. (Qinghai spruce) forest in the arid and semi-arid Qilian Mountains of northwestern China were used to determine changes in tree line location and relationships with meteorological factors during 1968–2018. The results showed that the lower tree line descended by an average of 9.82 m during 1968 to 2018, and exhibited almost no change after 2008. The change in the lower tree line was significantly correlated with the annual average temperature (°C) and annual precipitation (mm) and may be affected by human activities. In the past 50 years, the lower tree line in arid areas exhibited a downward trend. Our findings indicate that the movement of the lower tree line is also an important aspect of climatic changes in coniferous forest distribution in arid and semi-arid mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's seas cover nearly 5 million square kilometers extending from the tropical to the temperate climate zones and bordering on 32,000 km of coastline, including islands. Comprehensive systematic study of the marine biodiversity within this region began in the early 1950s with the establishment of the Qingdao Marine Biological Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Since that time scientists have carried out intensive multidisciplinary research on marine life in the China seas and have recorded 22,629 species belonging to 46 phyla. The marine flora and fauna of the China seas are characterized by high biodiversity, including tropical and subtropical elements of the Indo-West Pacific warm-water fauna in the South and East China seas, and temperate elements of North Pacific temperate fauna mainly in the Yellow Sea. The southern South China Sea fauna is characterized by typical tropical elements paralleled with the Philippine-New Guinea-Indonesia Coral triangle typi- cal tropical faunal center. This paper summarizes advanc- es in studies of marine biodiversity in China's seas and discusses current research mainly on characteristics and changes in marine biodiversity, including the monitoring, assessment, and conservation of endangered species and particularly the strengthening of effective management. Studies of (1) a tidal flat in a semi-enclosed embayment, (2) the impact of global climate change on a cold-water ecosystem, (3) coral reefs of Hainan Island and Xisha- Nansha atolls, (4) mangrove forests of the South China Sea, (5) a threatened seagrass field, and (6) an example of stock enhancement practices of the Chinese shrimp fishery are briefly introduced. Besides the overexploitation of living resources (more than 12.4 million tons yielded in 2007), the major threat to the biodiversity of the China seas is environmental deterioration (pollution, coastal construction), particularly in the brackish waters of estuarine environments, which are characterized by high productivity and represent spawning and nursery areas for several economically important species. In the long term, climate change is also a major threat. Finally, challenges in marine biodiversity studies are briefly discussed along with suggestions to strengthen the field. Since 2004, China has participated in the Census of Marine Life, through which advances in the study of zooplankton and zoobenthos biodiversity were finally summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China needs to guide property developers in actively reducing emissions to reach carbon emission reduction targets and respond to global climate change. A carbon tax is an important policy tool. Still, to establish successful rules to steer property developers' reasonable carbon emission reduction behavior, we must first explore property developers' decision-making mechanisms. This study develops an emission reduction and price game model for property developers under the constraint of a carbon tax. It then applies reverse order induction and optimization methods to identify the game equilibrium solution for property developers. Using the game equilibria, we explore the carbon tax mechanism on emission reduction and property developer pricing strategies. We can derive the following conclusions if the carbon tax policy is not implemented: 1.House prices are related to the substitutability of the two types of competitive property developers. 2.The greater the substitutability, the greater the cost of emission reduction paid by consumers. 3.The game equilibrium carbon emission intensity is the average carbon emission intensity of the housing business. In the situation of enacting a carbon tax, we arrive at the following conclusions: 1.The profits of real estate developers who do not have the advantage of emission reduction continue to decline with the increase of carbon tax. 2. For real estate developers who have the advantage of decreasing emissions, profits declined initially and then increased as the carbon tax rate increased, and only when the carbon tax rate reaches Tm1* can they fully leverage the cost advantage and obtain ever-increasing profits. 3.Low tax rates should be adopted by the government at the start of the implementation of the carbon tax policy to provide a buffer time for real estate developers who do not have the advantage of emission reduction costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate is a dominant factor affecting the potential geographical distribution of species. Understanding the impact of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species, which is of great significance to the exploitation, utilization, and protection of resources, as well as ecologically sustainable development. Betula platyphylla Suk. is one of the most widely distributed temperate deciduous tree species in East Asia and has important economic and ecological value. Based on 231 species distribution data points of Betula platyphylla Suk. in China and 37 bioclimatic, soil, and topography variables (with correlation coefficients < 0.75), the potential geographical distribution pattern of Betula platyphylla Suk. under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios at present and in the 2050s and 2070s was predicted using the MaxEnt model. We analyzed the main environmental variables affecting the distribution and change of suitable areas and compared the scope and change of suitable areas under different climate scenarios. This study found: (1) At present, the main suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. extends from northeastern to southwestern China, with the periphery area showing fragmented distribution. (2) Annual precipitation, precipitation of the warmest quarter, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the dominant environmental variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. (3) The suitable area for Betula platyphylla Suk. is expected to expand under global warming scenarios. In recent years, due to the impact of diseases and insect infestation, and environmental damage, the natural Betula platyphylla Suk. forest in China has gradually narrowed. This study accurately predicted the potential geographical distribution of Betula platyphylla Suk. under current and future climate change scenarios, which can provide the scientific basis for the cultivation, management, and sustainable utilization of Betula platyphylla Suk. resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peatlands contain large amount of carbon stock that is vulnerable to release into the atmosphere. Mostly because of human impact, the peatlands at Zoige Wetlands face severe degradation, and the groundwater table is now lower than before, which has increased the population of the plateau zokor, a burrowing rodent. However, the impact of these changes on ecosystem carbon flows has not been studied. To investigate how the plateau zokor and the groundwater level alter the ecosystem respiration of the Zoige peatlands, we sampled the CO2 flux of hummocks shaped by the zokors and compared it with the CO2 flux of undisturbed sites with different groundwater table levels. The soil organic carbon (SOC), soil water content (SWC) and soil temperature at 5 cm (T5) were measured. SOC showed no significant difference among the four sampling sites and did not correlate with the CO2 flux, while SWC was found to partly determine the CO2 flux. A linear equation could adequately describe the relationship between the natural logarithm of the ecosystem respiration and the soil temperature. It is demonstrated that descending groundwater table might accelerate ecosystem respiration and the CO2 flux from hummocks was higher than the CO2 flux from the control site in the non-growing season. With rising temperature, the CO2 flux from the control site accelerated faster than that from the hummocks. Our results show that ecosystem respiration was significantly lower from hummocks than at the control site in the growing season. The results on the impact of zokors on greenhouse gas emissions presented in this paper provide a useful reference to help properly manage not only this, but other litter-burrowing mammals at peatland sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change affects many aspects of the physiological and biochemical processes of growing maize and ultimately its yield. A comprehensive climate suitability model is proposed that quantifies the effects of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, and wind in different phenological stages of maize. It is calibrated using weather and yield data from China's Henan Province. The comprehensive suitability model showed the capability of correctly hindcasting observed temporal and spatial changes in maize phenology in response to climatic factors. The predicted yield based on the suitability model can well match the recorded field yield very well from 1971–2020. The results of correlation showed that the yields are more closely related to multi-weather factors, temperature and precipitation than to solar radiation and wind. The sensitivity analysis illustrates that temperature and precipitation are the dominant weather factors affecting yield changes based on a direct differentiation method. The comprehensive suitability model can provide a scientific support and analysis tool for predicting grain production considering climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sufficient samples of extreme precipitation events are needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the probability of their occurrence. Here, we use a large ensemble simulation with 50 members from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario to give future projection of the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events under different warming levels relative to the current climate over China. A bias-correction method based on quantile mapping is first used to remove systematic biases in the ensemble. The return value and return period are obtained by fitting enough annual maximum precipitation samples with the generalized extreme value to represent the intensity and frequency of extreme events, respectively. The results show that the average intensity of extreme precipitation in China will increase by nearly 8% per 1°C of global warming, which closely follows the Clausius–Clapeyron relation. Rarer extreme events will experience greater changes in frequency, especially under higher warming. The nationally averaged extreme precipitation events, presently expected to occur every 50 years (100 years) under the current climate conditions, are expected to occur approximately every 41 years (82 years), 32 years (62 years), 22 years (42 years) and 15 years (29 years) under warming levels of 1.5, 2.0, 3.0 and 4.0°C, respectively. Northwestern China (NW), southwestern China (SW) and the Yangtze River valley (YZ) exhibit the greatest increase in probability ratio (PR) under future climate condition. The risk of extreme precipitation events, currently expected to occur once every 50 years, will be nearly 11 (21) times more likely to occur under a climate warming by 3.0°C (4.0°C). Limiting warming to 1.5°C will help avoid approximately 40%-50%, 70%-80% and over 90% of the increase in the risk of extreme events in almost all subregions if the global mean surface temperature (GMST) continues warming to 2.0°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C, respectively. Our study provides a useful information for the understanding the impact of climate change on the future risk of extreme events over China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the response mechanism of ecosystems to climate change and human disturbance can be improved by analyzing the spatial patterns of vegetation phenology and its influencing factors. Because the diverse phenological patterns are impacted by cloud cover contamination issues in the satellite observations, there are few remote sensing phenological research data in subtropical monsoon climate regions. To better understand the horizontal and vertical changes of vegetation phenology in these regions and how it may be affected by climatic factors and topographical features, we first extracted vegetation phenological information (such as start of growth season (SOS), end of growth season (EOS) and length of growth season (LEN)) from a reconstructed MODIS EVI time-series data. We then used geographic detectors to identify the influencing factors of phenology in different elevation zoning areas. We have found that in the Xiangjiang River Basin: 1) gradual changes in the longitudinal or latitudinal gradient of vegetation phenology were not obvious. Instead of horizontal changes, the variation pattern of phenology was similar to the striped river network of the Xiangjiang River. Earlier SOS mainly appeared in the areas far away from the river; later SOS appeared in the midstream and downstream reaches.2) Elevation played an important role in the regional differentiation of phenology. Boundaries at elevations of 320 m and 520 m distinctly separated the region into plain, hilly, and mountain vegetation phenological characteristics. 3) The impacts of climatic factors were quite different in the three vertical zoning areas. Precipitation was the most crucial factor affecting SOS both in plain and mountain areas. There was no significant factor affecting EOS in the plain area, but temperature had an essential effect on EOS in the mountain area. The hilly areas had a concentrated growth period with no significant factors affecting phenology. These findings highlight the importance of elevation in phenology at a watershed scale, enhance our understanding of the impact of climate changes on subtropical ecosystems, and provide a reference for further land-use change monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The alpine meadow is highly sensitive to global climate change due to its high elevation and cold environment. To understand the dynamics of ecosystem carbon cycling, CO2 fluxes were measured over the Suli alpine meadow, which is located at the upper reach of the Shule River basin at the northeastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), China. The measurements were taken from October 2008 to September 2012 using the eddy covariance technique. Obvious seasonal and inter-annual variations were observed in the CO2 flux. The annual net carbon exchange ranged from -195.28 g·CO2·m-2 to -118.49 g·CO2·m-2, indicating that the alpine meadow ecosystem in this area played a role as a carbon sink. The inter-annual variability in the net carbon exchange was significantly related to the length of the growing season for the alpine meadow. The results showed that the months of June, July and August were the strongest CO2 absorption periods, while April, May and October were the strongest CO2 release periods. The annual net exchanges of CO2 in the four years were -118.49 g·CO2·m-2, -130.75 g·CO2·m-2, -195.83 g·CO2·m-2 and -160.65 g·CO2·m-2, and the average value was -151.43 g·CO2·m-2. On a seasonal scale, the monthly CO2 fluxes were largely controlled by temperature. At the annual scale, there was no dominant factor that influenced the interannual variations in the CO2 flux. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Approximately 94% of the land area of the Northern Tibetan Plateau is covered by grasslands, which comprise one of five key livestock producing regions in China. In contrast to most other regions worldwide, these alpine grasslands are much more sensitive to global climate change, thus they are under intense study. The differences in species diversity, plant biomass, and soil properties of five representative's alpine grassland types in the Northern Tibetan Plateau were investigated in this research. The results revealed that 11 community types were identified according to the importance of dominant species and constructive species. There were significant differences in the Margalef index (H), Simpson diversity index (D), Shannon-wiener diversity index (H'), and Pielou evenness index (J) indices between these five alpine grasslands. Further, the above-ground biomass (AGB), below-ground biomass (BGB), total biomass (TB), root:shoot (R/S) ratio, and coverage showed significant differences in 5 alpine grasslands. There were also considerable variations in the pH, total nitrogen concentration (TN), total phosphorus concentration (TP), soil organic carbon (SOC) and C-to-N ratio (C:N) among the five alpine grasslands. The highest value of biomass and soil characteristics was always in the alpine steppe (AS), or AM, while the lowest of that was in the alpine desert steppe (ADS), or alpine desert (AD). Moreover, there were significant differences in the soil particle size fractions between the five alpine grasslands. In the AM and AS, the dominant soil particle was clay, while in the alpine meadow-steppe (AMS), ADS, and AD it was fine and medium sand. Substantial correlations were found between the biomass and species diversity indices H, D or H' and soil TN, TP, or SOC. Moreover, silt had a significantly positive correlation with soil C:N, BGB, TB, and R/S, while medium sand and coarse sand was significant negatively correlated. With regard to these grassland types, it is proposed that the AM or AS may be an actively changing grassland types in the Northern Tibetan Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have focused on the interactive effects of temperature increases due to global warming and nutrient enrichment on phytoplankton communities. Recently, non-temperature effects of climate change (e.g., decreases in wind speed and increases in solar radiation) on large lakes have received increasing attention. To evaluate the relative contributions of both temperature and non-temperature effects on phytoplankton communities in a large eutrophic subtropical shallow lake, we analyzed long-term monitoring data from Lake Taihu, China from 1997 to 2016. Results showed that Lake Taihu’s spring phytoplankton biovolume and composition changed dramatically over this time frame, with a change in dominant species. Stepwise multiple linear regression models indicated that spring phytoplankton biovolume was strongly influenced by total phosphorus (TP), light condition, wind speed and total nitrogen (TN) (radj2 = 0.8, p < 0.01). Partial redundancy analysis (pRDA) showed that light condition accounted for the greatest variation of phytoplankton community composition, followed by TP and wind speed, as well as the interactions between TP and wind speed. Our study points to the additional importance of non-temperature effects of climate change on phytoplankton community dynamics in Lake Taihu. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the variations in crop climatic suitability and planting regionalization can provide scientific evidence for ensuring food security under climate change. In this study, variations in climatic suitability and planting regionalization for the potato in northern China were investigated based on daily data from 1965 to 2014 collected at 321 agro-meteorological observation stations located throughout the region. Northern China was divided into three areas, including Northwest China, North China and Northeast China. The agricultural climatic suitability theory and the fuzzy mathematics method were applied. The potato growth seasons were divided into threestages:from sowing to emergence, from emergence to flowering and from flowering to maturity. The comprehensive climatic suitabilityindex (C), which varied from 0 to 1, was established to evaluate the effects of climate change on potato planting. The results showed that, from 1965 to 2014, the C value in the study area increased 0.002 every ten years over the past 50 years with an average of 0.706, benefitting potato growth in the vast area of northern China. Nonetheless, precipitation was found to be the main climatic factor restricting potato growth in northern China. For spatial distribution, the C value showed a gradually declining trend from east to west, decreasing westward and southward over the past 50 years. For the growth season, the C value varied during different potato growth stages over the past 50 years. The C value increased during the sowing-emergence stage and decreased during the emergence-flowering stage and the flowering-maturity stage. The decreased C during the later growth stages would directly affect the quality and yield of the potato, mainly because the flowering-maturity stage was associated with potato tuber enlargement and starch accumulation. Variations in potato planting regionalization in northern China over the past 50 years were evident. Climate change was more beneficial to potato cultivation in northeast China where the highly suitable areas had clearly expanded. However, potato cultivation was most negatively affected in northwest China where the middle suitable areas had receded. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies and agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought and vegetation conditions within the Damqu River Basin, part of the Yangtze River Source Region (YRSR), are assessed here using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the leaf area index (LAI). We utilized Sen’s method, least squares regression method, linear regression and Pearson’s correlation analysis to study variations in drought and vegetation indices and the drought effect on vegetation between 1988 and 2015. Results reveal that droughts occurred at a 25% frequency over this period; SPI and SPEI analyses show that 1994, 1999, 2005, and 2010 were change points and that the basin was characterized by varying drought and humidity trends. Subsequent to 2010, both SPI and SPEI decreased within the basin, while 1995, 2000, 2004, and 2010 were change points for NDVI and LAI while the watershed exhibited variable trends in vegetation reduction and increase. The NDVI-annual values of 63.36% regions and the LAI-summer values of 68.39% areas within the basin were decreased during 1988–2015 and 2000–2015, respectively. Subsequent to 2010, both NDVI and LAI decreased within the basin and significant positive correlations at inter-annual and inter-summer time scales were seen in both drought and vegetation indices; drought has exerted a lag effect on vegetation as shown by significant positive correlations between annual SPI/SPEI values and following year NDVI/LAI values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Method: Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. Result: The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. Conclusion: The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change and technical progress on the wheat yield per unit area from 1970 to 2014 in Henan, the largest agricultural province in China, using an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The bounded F-test for cointegration among the model variables yielded evidence of a long-run relationship among climate change, technical progress, and the wheat yield per unit area. In the long run, agricultural machinery and fertilizer use both had significantly positive impacts on the per unit area wheat yield. A 1% increase in the aggregate quantity of fertilizer use increased the wheat yield by 0.19%. Additionally, a 1% increase in machine use increased the wheat yield by 0.21%. In contrast, precipitation during the wheat growth period (from emergence to maturity, consisting of the period from last October to June) led to a decrease in the wheat yield per unit area. In the short run, the coefficient of the aggregate quantity of fertilizer used was negative. Land size had a significantly positive impact on the per unit area wheat yield in the short run. There was no significant short-run or long-run impact of temperature on the wheat yield per unit area in Henan Province. The results of our analysis suggest that climate change had a weak impact on the wheat yield, while technical progress played an important role in increasing the wheat yield per unit area. The results of this study have implications for national and local agriculture policies under climate change. To design well-targeted agriculture adaptation policies for the future and to reduce the adverse effects of climate change on the wheat yield, climate change and technical progress factors should be considered simultaneously. In addition, adaptive measures associated with technical progress should be given more attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study utilizes ICESat Release 33 GLA14 data to analyse water level variation of Xinjiang’s lakes and reservoirs from 2003 to 2009. By using Landsat images, lakes and reservoirs with area larger than 1 km2 are numerically delineated with a software tool. Based on ICESat observations, we analyse the characteristics of water level variation in different geographic environments, as well as investigate the reasons for the variation. Results indicate that climatic warming contributes to rising water levels in lakes in mountainous areas, especially for lakes that are recharged by snow and glacial melting. For lakes in oases, the water levels are affected jointly by human activity and climate change, while the water levels of reservoirs are mainly affected by human activity. Comparing the annual average rates of water levels, those of lakes are higher than those of reservoirs in oasis areas. The main reasons for the decreasing water levels in desert regions are the reduction of recharged runoff and high evaporation. By analysing the variation of water levels and water volume in different geologic environments, it is found that water level and volume increased in mountainous regions, and decreased in oasis regions and desert regions. Finding also demonstrate that decreasing volume is greater than increasing volume, which results in decreasing total volume of Xinjiang lakes and reservoirs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To achieve a better understanding of Holocene climate change in the monsoon regions of China, we investigated the molecular distributions and carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions (δ13C and δD values) of long-chain n-alkanes in a peat core from the Shiwangutian (SWGT) peatland, south China over the last 9 ka. By comparisons with other climate records, we found that the δ13C values of the long-chain n-alkanes can be a proxy for humidity, while the δD values of the long-chain n-alkanes primarily recorded the moisture source δD signal during 9–1.8 ka BP and responded to the dry climate during 1.8–0.3 ka BP. Together with the average chain length (ACL) and the carbon preference index (CPI) data, the climate evolution over last 9 ka in the SWGT peatland can be divided into three stages. During the first stage (9–5 ka BP), the δ13C values were depleted and CPI and Paq values were low, while ACL values were high. They reveal a period of warm and wet climate, which is regarded as the Holocene optimum. The second stage (5–1.8 ka BP) witnessed a shift to relatively cool and dry climate, as indicated by the more positive δ13C values and lower ACL values. During the third stage (1.8–0.3 ka BP), the δ13C, δD, CPI and Paq values showed marked increase and ACL values varied greatly, implying an abrupt change to cold and dry conditions. This climate pattern corresponds to the broad decline in Asian monsoon intensity through the latter part of the Holocene. Our results do not support a later Holocene optimum in south China as suggested by previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sanjiang Plain has been experienced significant wetland loss due to expanded agricultural activities, and will be potentially restored by the China National Wetland Conservation Action Plan (NWCP) in future. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of future climate warming and wetland restoration on wetland CH4 emissions in northeast China. We used an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2) to drive a modified biogeophysical model (CH4MODwetland), and projected CH4 flux variations from the Sanjiang Plain wetlands under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios throughout the 21st century. Model validation showed that the regressions between the observed and simulated CH4 fluxes by the modified model produced an R2 of 0.49 with a slope of 0.87 (p<0.001, n = 237). According to the AVIM2 simulation, the net primary productivity of the Sanjiang Plain wetlands will increase by 38.2 g m-2 yr-1, 116.6 g m-2 yr-1 and 250.4 g m-2 yr-1 under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by the end of this century. For RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the CH4 fluxes will increase by 5.7 g m-2 yr-1, 57.5 g m-2 yr-1 and 112.2 g m-2 yr-1. Combined with the wetland restoration, the regional emissions will increase by 0.18‒1.52 Tg. The CH4 emissions will be stimulated by climate change and wetland restoration. Regional wetland restoration planning should be directed against different climate scenarios in order to suppress methane emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a remarkable 86% increase in cereal production from 1980 to 2005, recent crop yield growth in China has been slow. County level crop production data between 1980 and 2010 from eastern and middle China were used to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of rice, wheat and maize yield in five major farming systems that include around 90% of China's cereal production. Site-specific yield trends were assessed in areas where those crops have experienced increasing yield or where yields have stagnated or declined. We find that rice yields have continued to increase on over 12.3 million hectares (m. ha) or 41.8% of the rice area in China between 1980 and 2010. However, yields stagnated on 50% of the rice area (around 14.7 m. ha) over this time period. Wheat yields increased on 13.8 m. ha (58.2% of the total harvest area), but stagnated on around 3.8 m. ha (15.8% of the harvest area). Yields increased on a smaller proportion of the maize area (17.7% of harvest area, 5.3 m. ha), while yields have stagnated on over 54% (16.3 m. ha). Many parts of the lowland rice and upland intensive sub-tropical farming systems were more prone to stagnation with rice, the upland intensive sub-tropical system with wheat, and maize in the temperate mixed system. Large areas where wheat yield continues to rise were found in the lowland rice and temperate mixed systems. Land and water constraints, climate variability, and other environmental limitations undermine increased crop yield and agricultural productivity in these systems and threaten future food security. Technology and policy innovations must be implemented to promote crop yields and the sustainable use of agricultural resources to maintain food security in China. In many production regions it is possible to better match the crop with input resources to raise crop yields and benefits. Investments may be especially useful to intensify production in areas where yields continue to improve. For example, increased support to maize production in southern China, where yields are still rising, seems justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early Cenozoic was characterized by a very warm climate especially during the Early Eocene. To understand climatic changes in eastern Asia, we reconstructed the Early Eocene vegetation and climate based on palynological data of a borehole from Wutu coal mine, East China and evaluated the climatic differences between eastern Asia and Central Europe. The Wutu palynological assemblages indicated a warm temperate vegetation succession comprising mixed needle- and broad-leaved forests. Three periods of vegetation succession over time were recognized. The changes of palynomorph relative abundance indicated that period 1 was warm and humid, period 2 was relatively warmer and wetter, and period 3 was cooler and drier again. The climatic parameters estimated by the coexistence approach (CA) suggested that the Early Eocene climate in Wutu was warmer and wetter. Mean annual temperature (MAT) was approximately 16°C and mean annual precipitation (MAP) was 800–1400 mm. Comparison of the Early Eocene climatic parameters of Wutu with those of 39 other fossil floras of different age in East China, reveals that 1) the climate became gradually cooler during the last 65 million years, with MAT dropping by 9.3°C. This cooling trend coincided with the ocean temperature changes but with weaker amplitude; 2) the Early Eocene climate was cooler in East China than in Central Europe; 3) the cooling trend in East China (MAT dropped by 6.9°C) was gentler than in Central Europe (MAT dropped by 13°C) during the last 45 million years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past decade, developing countries have been experiencing rapid land use and land cover changes, including deforestation and cultivation of previously forested land. However, little is known about the impact of deforestation and land-use changes on the life history of malaria vectors and their effects on malaria transmission. This study examined the effects of deforestation and crop cultivation on the adult survivorship of major malaria mosquitoes, Anopheles sinensis and An. minimus in the China-Myanmar border region. We examined three conditions: indoor, forested, and banana plantation. Mean survival time of An. sinensis in banana plantation environment was significantly longer than those in forested environment, and mosquitoes exhibited the longest longevity in the indoor environment. This pattern held for both males and females, and also for An. minimus. To further test the effect of temperature on mosquito survival, we used two study sites with different elevation and ambient temperatures. Significantly higher survivorship of both species was found in sites with lower elevation and higher ambient temperature. Increased vector survival in the deforested area could have an important impact on malaria transmission in Southeast Asia. Understanding how deforestation impacts vector survivorship can help combat malaria transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, Zou Zhe (Memorials to the Throne, or Palace Memorials), an official communication to the emperors of China by local officials, offers an opportunity to reconstruct the spatial-temporal distributions of droughts at a high-resolution. A 223-year, 1689–1911, time series of drought events was reconstructed in this study based on 2494 pieces of Zou Zhe. The results show that: 1) on the temporal scale, the drought affected areas, i.e., number of affected counties, showed three peak periods during the last 223 years and nine extreme drought years with more than 300 counties affected have been identified; 2) on the spatial scale, there existed three drought-prone areas in China, i.e., Gansu province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region in Northwest China, Shandong, Hebei, and Henan provinces and Tianjin in the North China, and Anhui and Jiangsu provinces in Jianghuai area, respectively; 3) the drought-prone areas have been expanding from North China to South China since the second half of 19th century; 4) on the seasonal scale, summer witnessed the largest number of drought events. Meanwhile, the uncertainties of the results were also discussed, i.e. what caused the spatial-temporal distribution of drought. The results of this study can be used to mitigate the adverse effects of extreme weather events on food increasing and stable production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has long been concerned how crop water use efficiency (WUE) responds to climate change. Most of existing researches have emphasized the impact of single climate factor but have paid less attention to the effect of developed agronomic measures on crop WUE. Based on the long-term field observations/experiments data, we investigated the changing responses of crop WUE to climate variables (temperature and precipitation) and agronomic practices (fertilization and cropping patterns) in the semi-arid area of northern China (SAC) during two periods, 1983–1999 and 2000–2010 (drier and warmer). Our results suggest that crop WUE was an intrinsical system sensitive to climate change and agronomic measures. Crops tend to reach the maximum WUE (WUEmax) in warm-dry environment while reach the stable minimum WUE (WUEmin) in warm-wet environment, with a difference between WUEmax and WUEmin ranging from 29.0%-55.5%. Changes in temperature and precipitation in the past three decades jointly enhanced crop WUE by 8.1%-30.6%. Elevated fertilizer and rotation cropping would increase crop WUE by 5.6–11.0% and 19.5–92.9%, respectively. These results indicate crop has the resilience by adjusting WUE, which is not only able to respond to subsequent periods of favorable water balance but also to tolerate the drought stress, and reasonable agronomic practices could enhance this resilience. However, this capacity would break down under impact of climate changes and unconscionable agronomic practices (e.g. excessive N/P/K fertilizer or traditional continuous cropping). Based on the findings in this study, a conceptual crop WUE model is constructed to indicate the threshold of crop resilience, which could help the farmer develop appropriate strategies in adapting the adverse impacts of climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pyrus ussriensis Maxim. is native to the northern part of China, but whose habitats are currently being destroyed by environmental changes and human deforestation. An investigation of population structure and genetic diversity of wild Ussurian pear is a priority in order to acquire fundamental knowledge for conservation. A total of 153 individuals of wild Ussurian pear from the main habitats, Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia in China, possessed low genetic diversity as a result of habitat fragmentation. The genetic diversity of the populations in Inner Mongolia and north east of Heilongjiang was especially low and there was the possibility of inbreeding. Wild Ussurian pears were divided into 5 groups based on the Bayesian clustering method using 20 nuclear SSRs (nSSRs) and 5 groups by haplotype distributions using 16 chloroplast SSRs (cpSSRs), and the populations in Inner Mongolia and north east of Heilongjiang represented unique genotypes. AMOVA indicated there was a 20.05% variation in nSSRs and a 44.40% variation in cpSSRs among populations. These values are relatively high when compared to those of other tree species. Haplotype E, positioned in the center of the cpSSR analysis network and showed the largest number of connections with other haplotypes, represented the most important haplotype. Inner Mongolia and the north east of Heilongjiang are two areas that need urgent conservation because of their genetic vulnerability and peculiarity. We determined 4 conservation units based on the clustering by nSSRs and cpSSRs, and geographic factor. This information is helpful in deciding the conservation strategies for wild Ussurian pear in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We identified the spatiotemporal patterns of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the years 1982–2008 in the desert areas of Northwest China and quantified the impacts of climate and non-climate factors on NDVI changes. The results indicate that although the mean NDVI has improved in 24.7% of the study region; 16.3% among the region has been stagnating in recent years and only 8.4% had a significantly increasing trend. Additionally, 45.3% of the region has maintained a stable trend over the study period and 30.0% has declined. A multiple regression model suggests that a wetter climate (quantified by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI) is associated with higher NDVI in most areas (18.1% of significance) but these historical changes in PDSI only caused an average improvement of approximately 0.4% over the study region. Contrasting the regression results under different trend patterns, no significant differences in PDSI impacts were detected among the four trend patterns. Therefore, we conclude that climate is not the primary driver for vegetative coverage in Northwest China. Future studies will be required to identify the impacts of specific non-climatic factors on vegetative coverage based on high-resolution data, which will be beneficial in creating an effective strategy to combat the recent desertification trend in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little work has been done on large-scale patterns of stream insect richness in China. We explored the influence of climatic and catchment-scale factors on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera; EPT) richness across mid-latitude China. We assessed the predictive ability of climatic, catchment land cover and physical structure variables on genus richness of EPT, both individually and combined, in 80 mid-latitude Chinese streams, spanning a 3899-m altitudinal gradient. We performed analyses using boosted regression trees and explored the nature of their influence on richness patterns. The relative importance of climate, land cover, and physical factors on stream insect richness varied considerably between the three orders, and while important for Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera, latitude did not improve model fit for any of the groups. EPT richness was linked with areas comprising high forest cover, elevation and slope, large catchments and low temperatures. Ephemeroptera favoured areas with high forest cover, medium-to-large catchment sizes, high temperature seasonality, and low potential evapotranspiration. Plecoptera richness was linked with low temperature seasonality and annual mean, and high slope, elevation and warm-season rainfall. Finally, Trichoptera favoured high elevation areas, with high forest cover, and low mean annual temperature, seasonality and aridity. Our findings highlight the variable role that catchment land cover, physical properties and climatic influences have on stream insect richness. This is one of the first studies of its kind in Chinese streams, thus we set the scene for more in-depth assessments of stream insect richness across broader spatial scales in China, but stress the importance of improving data availability and consistency through time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans have had a significant impact on the terrestrial pedosphere through activities such as agriculture and urbanization. The effects of human activities on land use and the related environmental changes were investigated through point and areal studies surrounding Meiliang Bay, which is an open area of extreme eutrophication in Taihu Lake, China. This study used remote sensing and environmental-tracer profiles [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), total organic carbon (TOC), grain size, and geochemical parameters] to determine the causes of changes in land use and the associated environmental parameters. The results of LUCCs (Land use/cover changes) indicate that over the past three decades, total farmland decreased by 862.49 km2, with an annual decrement rate of 28.75 km2/year, and total urbanized land increased by 859.71 km2, with an annual growth rate of 28.66 km2/year. The geochemical results indicate that the trophic state of Taihu Lake was persistently intensifying and that the TN, TP, and TOC concentrations increased twofold, threefold, and twofold, respectively, from 1949 to 2010. The sources of TN, TP, and TOC were highly similar after 1975. However, before 1974, TN and TP originated from different sources than TOC. The grassland and woodland around the lake retain nutrients and sand from the land of study area. The increase in urbanized land and tertiary industries significantly increased the sediment concentrations of TN, TP, and TOC after 1980. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has been recognized as a critical challenge to communicable disease control and public health response. This study aimed to quantify the association between climate variation and notified cases of HFMD in selected cities of Shanxi Province, and to provide evidence for disease control and prevention. Meteorological variables and HFMD cases data in 4 major cities (Datong, Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng) of Shanxi province, China, were obtained from the China Meteorology Administration and China CDC respectively over the period 1 January 2009 to 31 December 2013. Correlations analyses and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were used to identify and quantify the relationship between the meteorological variables and HFMD. HFMD incidence varied seasonally with the majority of cases in the 4 cities occurring from May to July. Temperatures could play important roles in the incidence of HFMD in these regions. The SARIMA models indicate that a 1° C rise in average, maximum and minimum temperatures may lead to a similar relative increase in the number of cases in the 4 cities. The lag times for the effects of temperatures were identified in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng. The numbers of cases were positively associated with average and minimum temperatures at a lag of 1 week in Taiyuan, Changzhi and Yuncheng, and with maximum temperature at a lag of 2 weeks in Yuncheng. Positive association between the temperature and HFMD has been identified from the 4 cities in Shanxi Province, although the role of weather variables on the transmission of HFMD varied in the 4 cities. Relevant prevention measures and public health action are required to reduce future risks of climate change with consideration of local climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North-Central China is a region in which the air temperature has clearly increased for several decades. Picea meyeri and Larix principis-rupprechtii are the most dominant co-occurring tree species within the cold coniferous forest belt ranging vertically from 1800 m to 2800 m a.s.l. in this region. Based on a tree-ring analysis of 292 increment cores sampled from 146 trees at different elevations, this study aimed to examine if the radial growth of the two species in response to climate is similar, whether the responses are consistent along altitudinal gradients and which species might be favored in the future driven by the changing climate. The results indicated the following: (1) The two species grew in different rhythms at low and high elevation respectively; (2) Both species displayed inconsistent relationships between radial growth and climate data along altitudinal gradients. The correlation between radial growth and the monthly mean temperature in the spring or summer changed from negative at low elevation into positive at high elevation, whereas those between the radial growth and the total monthly precipitation displayed a change from positive into negative along the elevation gradient. These indicate the different influences of the horizontal climate and vertical mountainous climate on the radial growth of the two species; (3) The species-dependent different response to climate in radial growth appeared mainly in autumn of the previous year. The radial growth of L. principis-rupprechtii displayed negative responses both to temperature and to precipitation in the previous September, October or November, which was not observed in the radial growth of P. meyeri. (4) The radial growth of both species will tend to be increased at high elevation and limited at low elevation, and L. principis-rupprechtii might be more favored in the future, if the temperature keeps rising. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been increasing concerns about the challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases due to climate change, especially in developing countries including China. Health professionals play a significant role in the battle to control and prevent infectious diseases. This study therefore aims to investigate the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in different levels in China, and to consider adaptation measures to deal with the challenge of climate change. In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 staff in CDCs in Shanxi Province, China, whose routine work involves disease control and prevention. Data were analyzed using descriptive methods and logistic regression. A majority of the CDC staff were aware of the health risks from climate change, especially its impacts on infectious disease transmission in their jurisdictions, and believed climate change might bring about both temporal and spatial change in transmission patterns. It was thought that adaptation measures should be established including: strengthening/improving currently existing disease surveillance systems and vector monitoring; building CDC capacity in terms of infrastructure and in-house health professional training; development and refinement of relevant legislation, policies and guidelines; better coordination among various government departments; the involvement of the community in infectious disease interventions; and collaborative research with other institutions. This study provides a snapshot of the understanding of CDC staff regarding climate change risks relevant to infectious diseases and adaptation in China. Results may help inform future efforts to develop adaptation measures to minimize infectious disease risks due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sediments from Xinyun Lake in central Yunnan, southwest China, provide a record of environmental history since the Holocene. With the application of multi-proxy indicators (total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), δ13C and δ15N isotopes, C/N ratio, grain size, magnetic susceptibility (MS) and CaCO3 content), as well as accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C datings, four major climatic stages during the Holocene have been identified in Xingyun′s catchment. A marked increase in lacustrine palaeoproductivity occurred from 11.06 to 9.98 cal. ka BP, which likely resulted from an enhanced Asian southwest monsoon and warm-humid climate. Between 9.98 and 5.93 cal. ka BP, a gradually increased lake level might have reached the optimum water depth, causing a marked decline in coverage by aquatic plants and lake productivity of the lake. This was caused by strong Asian southwest monsoon, and coincided with the global Holocene Optimum. During the period of 5.60–1.35 cal. ka BP, it resulted in a warm and dry climate at this stage, which is comparable to the aridification of India during the mid- and late Holocene. The intensifying human activity and land-use in the lake catchment since the early Tang Dynasty (∼1.35 cal. ka BP) were associated with the ancient Dian culture within Xingyun’s catchment. The extensive deforestation and development of agriculture in the lake catchment caused heavy soil loss. Our study clearly shows that long-term human activities and land-use change have strongly impacted the evolution of the lake environment and therefore modulated the sediment records of the regional climate in central Yunnan for more than one thousand years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future climates are likely to include extreme events, which in turn have great impacts on ecological systems. In this study, we investigated possible effects that could mitigate stem breakage caused by a rare and extreme ice storm in a Chinese subtropical forest across a gradient of forest diversity. We used Bayesian modeling to correct stem breakage for tree size and variance components analysis to quantify the influence of taxon, leaf and wood functional traits, and stand level properties on the probability of stem breakage. We show that the taxon explained four times more variance in individual stem breakage than did stand level properties; trees with higher specific leaf area (SLA) were less susceptible to breakage. However, a large part of the variation at the taxon scale remained unexplained, implying that unmeasured or undefined traits could be used to predict damage caused by ice storms. When aggregated at the plot level, functional diversity and wood density increased after the ice storm. We suggest that for the adaption of forest management to climate change, much can still be learned from looking at functional traits at the taxon level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Loess Plateau of China has the highest soil erosion rate in the world where billion tons of soil is annually washed into Yellow River. In recent decades this region has experienced significant climate change and policy-driven land conversion. However, it has not yet been well investigated how these changes in climate and land use have affected soil organic carbon (SOC) storage on the Loess Plateau. By using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM), we quantified the effects of climate and land use on SOC storage on the Loess Plateau in the context of multiple environmental factors during the period of 1961–2005. Our results show that SOC storage increased by 0.27 Pg C on the Loess Plateau as a result of multiple environmental factors during the study period. About 55% (0.14 Pg C) of the SOC increase was caused by land conversion from cropland to grassland/forest owing to the government efforts to reduce soil erosion and improve the ecological conditions in the region. Historical climate change reduced SOC by 0.05 Pg C (approximately 19% of the total change) primarily due to a significant climate warming and a slight reduction in precipitation. Our results imply that the implementation of “Grain for Green” policy may effectively enhance regional soil carbon storage and hence starve off further soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic warming is often predicted to reduce wheat yield and grain quality in China. However, direct evidence is still lacking. We conducted a three-year experiment with a Free Air Temperature Increase (FATI) facility to examine the responses of winter wheat growth and plant N accumulation to a moderate temperature increase of 1.5°C predicted to prevail by 2050 in East China. Three warming treatments (AW: all-day warming; DW: daytime warming; NW: nighttime warming) were applied for an entire growth period. Consistent warming effects on wheat plant were recorded across the experimental years. An increase of ca. 1.5°C in daily, daytime and nighttime mean temperatures shortened the length of pre-anthesis period averagely by 12.7, 8.3 and 10.7 d (P<0.05), respectively, but had no significant impact on the length of the post-anthesis period. Warming did not significantly alter the aboveground biomass production, but the grain yield was 16.3, 18.1 and 19.6% (P<0.05) higher in the AW, DW and NW plots than the non-warmed plot, respectively. Warming also significantly increased plant N uptake and total biomass N accumulation. However, warming significantly reduced grain N concentrations while increased N concentrations in the leaves and stems. Together, our results demonstrate differential impacts of warming on the depositions of grain starch and protein, highlighting the needs to further understand the mechanisms that underlie warming impacts on plant C and N metabolism in wheat. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the effects of weather on insect population dynamics is crucial to simulate and forecast pest outbreaks, which is becoming increasingly important with the effects of climate change. The mirid bug Apolygus lucorum is an important pest on cotton, fruit trees and other crops in China, and primarily lays its eggs on dead parts of tree branches in the fall for subsequent overwintering. As such, the eggs that hatch the following spring are most strongly affected by ambient weather factors, rather than by host plant biology. In this study, we investigated the effects of three major weather factors: temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, on the hatching rate of A. lucorum eggs overwintering on dead branches of Chinese date tree (Ziziphus jujuba). Under laboratory conditions, rainfall (simulated via soaking) was necessary for the hatching of overwintering A. lucorum eggs. In the absence of rainfall (unsoaked branches), very few nymphs successfully emerged under any of the tested combinations of temperature and relative humidity. In contrast, following simulated rainfall, the hatching rate of the overwintering eggs increased dramatically. Hatching rate and developmental rate were positively correlated with relative humidity and temperature, respectively. Under field conditions, the abundance of nymphs derived from overwintering eggs was positively correlated with rainfall amount during the spring seasons of 2009–2013, while the same was not true for temperature and relative humidity. Overall, our findings indicate that rainfall is the most important factor affecting the hatching rate of overwintering A. lucorum eggs on dead plant parts and nymph population levels during the spring season. It provides the basic information for precisely forecasting the emergence of A. lucorum and subsequently timely managing its population in spring, which will make it possible to regional control of this insect pest widely occurring in multiple crops in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nitrogen (N) deposition and its ecological effects on forest ecosystems have received global attention. Plantations play an important role in mitigating climate change through assimilating atmospheric CO2. However, the mechanisms by which increasing N additions affect net ecosystem production (NEP) of plantations remain poorly understood. A field experiment was initialized in May 2009, which incorporated additions of four rates of N (control (no N addition), low-N (5 g N m−2 yr−1), medium-N (10 g N m−2 yr−1), and high-N (15 g N m−2 yr−1)) at the Saihanba Forestry Center, Hebei Province, northern China, a locality that contains the largest area of plantations in China. Net primary production (NPP), soil respiration, and its autotrophic and heterotrophic components were measured. Plant tissue carbon (C) and N concentrations (including foliage, litter, and fine roots), microbial biomass, microbial community composition, extracellular enzyme activities, and soil pH were also measured. N addition significantly increased NPP, which was associated with increased litter N concentrations. Autotrophic respiration (AR) increased but heterotrophic respiration (HR) decreased in the high N compared with the medium N plots, although the HR in high and medium N plots did not significantly differ from that in the control. The increased AR may derive from mycorrhizal respiration and rhizospheric microbial respiration, not live root respiration, because fine root biomass and N concentrations showed no significant differences. Although the HR was significantly suppressed in the high-N plots, soil microbial biomass, composition, or activity of extracellular enzymes were not significantly changed. Reduced pH with fertilization also could not explain the pattern of HR. The reduction of HR may be related to altered microbial C use efficiency. NEP was significantly enhanced by N addition, from 149 to 426.6 g C m−2 yr−1. Short-term N addition may significantly enhance the role of plantations as an important C sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation along altitude gradients are typical mountain climate in subtropical China. In such a climate regime, identifying the patterns of the C stable isotope composition (δ13C) in plants and soils and their relations to the context of climate change is essential. In this study, the patterns of δ13C variation were investigated for tree leaves, litters, and soils in the natural secondary forests at four altitudes (219, 405, 780, and 1268 m a.s.l.) in Lushan Mountain, central subtropical China. For the dominant trees, both leaf and leaf-litter δ13C decreased as altitude increased from low to high altitude, whereas surface soil δ13C increased. The lower leaf δ13C at high altitudes was associated with the high moisture-related discrimination, while the high soil δ13C is attributed to the low temperature-induced decay. At each altitude, soil δ13C became enriched with soil depth. Soil δ13C increased with soil C concentrations and altitude, but decreased with soil depth. A negative relationship was also found between O-alkyl C and δ13C in litter and soil, whereas a positive relationship was observed between aromatic C and δ13C. Lower temperature and higher moisture at high altitudes are the predominant control factors of δ13C variation in plants and soils. These results help understand C dynamics in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]