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• In recent years many developing countries pursued policies aimed at increasing the banking sector's ability and willingness to lend to households. • These policies contributed to relaxing borrowing constraints households were previously subjected to. • This paper presents a two-sector open economy model that examines the sectoral implications of policy driven household lending expansions. • I use macroeconomic data from the Turkish economy to motivate the model. • The paper shows that policy driven expansions in household lending can have adverse sectoral implications by benefiting low productivity nontradable industries at the expense of higher productivity tradable industries. This paper analyses the sectoral implications of household credit expansions in a two-sector open economy model. In the model, policy-induced expansion in banks' willingness and ability to lend to households results in new lending, boosting aggregate demand and average wages in the nontradable sector. Under fixed relative wages and mark-up pricing in the tradable sector, wage pressures translate into inflationary pressures. The inflation-targeting central bank increases the policy rate to contain inflationary pressures. This intervention causes a real exchange rate appreciation, followed by a reduction in international competitiveness and a contraction of the tradable sector output. This way, the model illustrates that consumer credit expansions can trigger premature deindustrialisation , shifting the sectoral structure away from the high-productivity tradable sector towards the lower-productivity nontradable sector. Key macroeconomic developments from the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2013 are presented to motivate the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the real exchange rate adjustment process in the baseline small open economy New-Keynesian framework. The paper shows that i) the version of the model with real shocks replicates the persistence and the hump-shaped dynamics of the real exchange rate observed in the data, and ii) the model cannot simultaneously match the observed dynamics of the real exchange rate and the close co-movement between the real and nominal currency returns. Thus, the baseline framework cannot fully capture the real exchange rate adjustment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Critical assessment of Pasinetti's model of structural change in open economies. • Uneven productivity developments and dynamic patterns of international specialisation. • Channels of international technology transfer and dynamics of international specialisation. • Trade specialisation and patterns of catching-up • International trade and development policy. This paper covers Luigi Pasinetti's contribution to the analysis of international economic relations as contained in his 'Structural Change and Economic Growth' (1981) and 'Structural Economic Dynamics' (1993). While appreciating the important contribution he makes in this area, the paper also critically examines some aspects of his analysis and suggests further developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyze aggregate shocks decomposition in Croatia. • Domestic shocks were dominant during the transition period. • External shocks became dominant after financial and trade liberalization in 2000. • In the short run, business cycle fluctuations are driven by domestic AS shocks. • In the medium run, fluctuations are driven by external AD shocks. This paper separates macroeconomic shocks into external and domestic aggregate demand and supply shocks in Croatia during and after the transition period using a Bayesian SVAR model. The standard decomposition into aggregate demand and supply shocks covers important information on external sources of economic fluctuations. We find that domestic shocks were a dominant source of fluctuations during the transition period from 1992 to 2000. External shocks increased their importance after 2000, becoming the dominant source of fluctuations with the Global financial crisis. International comparison with other EU post-transition countries shows that short run GDP fluctuations are best explained by domestic aggregate supply shocks in 9 out of 11 analyzed countries, including Croatia. However, in the medium run, GDP fluctuations are dominantly explained by external aggregate demand shocks in 8 out of 11 countries, including Croatia. Inflation in Croatia is driven by external shocks both in the short- and medium run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes whether taxation can be successfully used to reduce the incidence of labor informality and achieve higher equality in a globalized economy. To this purpose, it develops a two-area model: a developed country and an emerging country. The two areas differ according to the size of the informal sector, which is characterized by a more flexible labor market and lower productivity. To illustrate the potential role of taxation in achieving a more fair income distribution, the paper introduces a trade shock to simulate the effects of trade liberalization. Trade expansion has often been blamed for leading to an expansion of the informal sector and a widening of wage income disparities. In this context, the paper analyzes whether a budget-neutral tax reform – switching the tax burden from payroll taxes paid by firms operating in the formal sector to a consumption tax – can mitigate possible adverse effects of trade liberalization and support labor formalization. The effects of taxation are seen in the context of the trade-offs between growth, labor formality and equity. The analysis suggests that small improvements in formalization, resulting from the tax reform, come at the cost of widening income inequality. To reduce the incidence of low-quality jobs, tax policy interventions should go hand in hand with more effective social protection systems and labor laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the import and export trade data of 29 provinces and cities in China from 1997 to 2017, this paper studies the impact of trade on China's labor demand elasticity, and whether the impact will be affected by the level of domestic human capital. The results show that: import is conducive to improving the labor demand elasticity, and export is conducive to reducing the labor demand elasticity. Moreover, with the improvement of domestic human capital level, the weakening effect of export on the labor demand elasticity is strengthened, and the improving effect of import on the labor demand elasticity is weakened. The reason is that the improvement of the level of human capital can reduce the demand elasticity of domestic and foreign consumers for domestic products by improving the cost performance of products, and can also reduce the factor substitution elasticity of labor force. Therefore, the improvement effect of import on the demand elasticity of labor force is weakened, and the weakening effect of export on the demand elasticity of labor force is strengthened. It can be seen that the improvement of domestic human capital level is conducive to the labor force to deal with the employment security problem in the trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship among trade liberalization, the degree of trade openness (DTO) and regional foreign direct investment (FDI) using Chinese data for 2001–2018 by hand collection. We apply the fixed effect model and find that both trade liberalization and regional DTO have a significantly positive relationship with regional FDI. Furthermore, a variable coefficient model is used to prove that the effects of trade liberalization on regional FDI are heterogeneous across regions. Finally, we use the threshold model to prove the significant threshold effects of DTO on the relationship of trade liberalization and FDI. This paper provides theoretical and policy support for countries with obvious regional differences to attract FDI. • First, we argue that the relationship of trade liberalization and FDI is affected by DTO. • Second, we study the threshold value of DTO between trade liberalization and regional FDI. • Finally, we study the relationship between trade liberalization and FDI across regions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dairy farming is physically hard, with limited freedom due to twice-daily milking duties and low revenues. Moreover, globalization, deregulation and trade liberalization have significantly changed the conditions of dairy farming. How can dairy farmers in this context maintain good quality of life? What makes a life one of good quality? This paper uses a qualitative bottom-up approach to understand Swiss dairy farmers' and their families' individual criteria of quality of life, aiming to reconsider and complement the often used, standardized criteria of quality of life surveys. The analysis of the qualitative interview data reveals the importance of objective non-material as well as subjective components of quality of life. The paper shows that, contrary to what could be expected based on the farmer's ethic of being hardworking over long hours, farmers emphasize 'time' as an important criterion of quality of life, referring not only to leisure time, time with the family or time to lie in, but also time to think and plan. The paper further stresses the importance of eudaimonic wellbeing, which is largely missing in standardized quality of life studies on farming families and also some general quality of life concepts. In this regard, the paper highlights the lack of social recognition of farmers and the extent to which pressure and criticism from the non-farming population negatively influences farmers' quality of life. The paper concludes that to fully understand farming families' quality of life and thus the social sustainability of family farming, the subjective dimension of quality of life, especially eudaimonic wellbeing, needs to be fully incorporated in future studies, regardless of their methodological approach. Moreover, alluding to resilience research, the paper urges researchers to include 'time to think and plan' into future investigations, assuming that more time for self-reflection increases not only the subjective but also the objective dimension of quality of life. • Dairy farmers' quality of life is central for a socially sustainable agriculture. • Qualitative quality of life approaches allow researchers to understand what lies beyond pure scales. • Eudaimonic wellbeing is essential for subjective quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC) is a rail-sea intermodal transport corridor whose fundamental purpose is to closely connect western China and ASEAN through shortening the transport distance and trade time cost. Since the ILSTC is still a new initiative, there are few research focusing on its performance and implementation effects. Using computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this paper attempts to analyze the economic impacts of the ILSTC since 2019 by simulating the scenario of transport time cost reduction. Results show that the ILSTC can promote the gross domestic product of China and the entire ASEAN by 0.20% and 0.84%, respectively; China's and the whole ASEAN's social welfare are both improved by more than US$10 billion; China's export and import with the whole ASEAN increases by 9.97% and 9.54%, respectively; The value-added trade flow contained in China's intermediate products which export to ASEAN countries first and finally return to China become larger; The impact on different sectors are heterogeneous, in which bilateral value-added and gross trade of grains and crops would increase most significantly; The value-added provided from service industry are also improved. Overall, the ILSTC plays a more important role in promoting the macro-economy of China and ASEAN countries than trade liberalization. On these basis, related conclusions for the promotion of commercial relationship between China and ASEAN countries are proposed, hoping to provide reference for traders and policy makers. • Measure the economic effects of China and ASEAN countries from the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC). • Expand the simulation results from the perspective of value-added trade to track changes in intra-industry trade. • Shed lights on better policy options between trade liberalization and the ILSTC for policy makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates a 3-country DSGE model to identify the drivers of exchange rate volatility in small open economies (SOE). In addition to the usual cross-country linkages through trade and asset holdings, the model features common shocks that affect economies symmetrically. Using data from Jamaica, the US and the G-7 region (excluding the US), the paper finds that external financial shocks are the primary drivers of exchange rate fluctuations in the SOE. While domestic financial shocks are bigger contributors than US and G-7 specific shocks, shocks that are common across the US and the G-7 generally play the main role. Nonfinancial shocks, domestic and external, are inconsequential for exchange rate volatility. Inferences from a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables are consistent with these results. • I identify the drivers of exchange rate volatility in an emerging market economy. • I estimates a DSGE model by using data from Jamaica, the US and the G-7 region. • External financial shocks are the primary drivers of exchange rate fluctuations. • Domestic financial shocks are bigger contributors than US and G-7 specific shocks. • Shocks that are common across the US and the G-7 generally play the main role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper retrospectively examines how the digital payment-financial inclusion nexus fostered demand-driven payment system innovation and diffusion within the global open economy during the COVID-19 crisis. To that end, the paper uses a cross-sectional sample of 127854 respondents from across 123 economies, extracted from the 2021 wave of the Global Findex Survey. Together with a hybrid theoretical framework that bridges the quadruple helix (QH) innovation model with random utility theory (RUT), the study characterizes individuals' stated preferences for cashless payment across the three consumption domains of in-store shopping, online shopping, and regular bills settlement. The parameters of the resulting econometric model are estimated within the R software version 3.6.3. The findings from all nine considered demand side financial inclusion indicators reveal that globally, during the crisis, formal financial inclusion had a significantly positive impact on the marginal utility, and thus likelihood that individuals use digital payment solutions (DPS) for in-store and online shopping experiences, as well as regular bills settlement. Additionally, DPS uptake for online shopping highlighted a significant gender-based gradient in favor of males. Moreover, higher education levels, labor market participation, rising income levels, reduced COVID-19 related financial worries, mobile phone ownership, and internet access, are all found to have positively contributed to individuals' DPS uptake likelihood during the crisis. Furthermore, a cross-country heterogeneity in individuals' cashless payment preferences remained persistent across the three consumption domains due to macroeconomic, regulatory, cultural, and digital infrastructural readiness differences between countries. Overall, the findings provide support for evidence-based decision making by all digital payment ecosystem stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port (HFTP) is proceeding step by step. With the closing time in 2025, companies from all over the world have begun to notice the importance of the HFTP. Many companies have begun to consider rebuilding their supply chain networks with HFTP as an important node, thus forming a free trade port supply chain. As a result, HFTP has formed a complex system focused on the global supply chain. This paper constructs a dual-channel supply chain networks scenario with a single product manufacturer leading pricing based on complex system perspective. In the context of whether to choose the Free Trade Port Blockchain Platform (FTPBCP), using the traditional distribution channel as a reference, the Stackelberg game strategy is used to analyze the supply chain pricing of online direct sales and online distribution, and the SCN redesign decision. The analysis results show that the construction of the FTPBCP has a very important impact on the redesign of the GSC. Manufacturers need to consider the construction cost of the blockchain technology platform to set an appropriate price or redesign the SCN. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this paper is to investigate whether economic uncertainty affects narrow money demand in New Zealand and whether the specified money-demand function remains stable over time. New Zealand adopted inflation-targeting in the early 1990s by discarding monetary-targeting or any other strategy of monetary policy for price stability on the grounds that instability in the narrow money-demand function might sever the relationship among money, output, prices, interest rates, and exchange rates, as the classical monetary theory suggests. This paper specifies an augmented money-demand function for an open economy that includes economic uncertainty and inflation volatility as two additional determinants of money demand. Quarterly data for New Zealand for the period 1995Q1–2017Q4 is used to determine whether these variables remain significant in an augmented money-demand function in this country. The empirical results, obtained by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, suggest that there exists a cointegral relationship among variables in the specified model and that economic uncertainty negatively affects narrow money demand in New Zealand. Further, the empirical results, obtained by the non-linear ARDL (NARDL) approach, suggest that economic uncertainty affects narrow money demand asymmetrically. An increase in economic uncertainty lowers narrow money demand, while a decrease in economic uncertainty does not increase – and​ instead seems to decrease – narrow money demand. Unlike with economic uncertainty, an increase in inflation volatility, which represents inflation uncertainty, increases narrow money demand. Although it is not conclusively established in this paper, the effect of inflation uncertainty on narrow money-demand seems symmetric. The narrow money-demand function is found in this paper to have remained stable irrespective of whether the model is estimated by the ARDL or NARDL approach. This paper draws the conclusion that the abandonment of money in the formulation of monetary policy strategy, such as inflation-targeting in New Zealand, cannot be justified on the grounds of instability in the narrow money-demand function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper assesses the early socio-medical response to COVID-19 in Nigeria, with a focus on the first 100 days after the index case. • The incidence of COVID-19 grows steadily in Nigeria, moving from an imported case and elitist pattern to community transmission, spreading across the states of the federation. • The paper presents a concise response framework to highlight the various multisectoral responses to the pandemic. • The response is not without some challenges, including inadequate testing laboratories, under-testing, inadequate palliatives and economic stimuli. • The potential of an overwhelming COVID-19 upsurge is still imminent in Nigeria as the country is attempting to hurriedly open the economy. • A most important lesson is the impossibility of the usual medical tourism among Nigerian elites. The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic shocked the world, overwhelming the health systems of even high-income countries. Predictably, the situation has elicited social and medical responses from the public and governments, respectively. Nigeria recorded an imported case from Italy on February 27, 2020. Hence, this paper assesses the early socio-medical response to COVID-19 in Nigeria in the first 100 days after the index case. The paper employs analytical methods and collates data from various media reports and official sources. The incidence of COVID-19 grew steadily in Nigeria, moving from an imported case and elitist pattern to community transmission. The case fatality stood at 2.8%. The country recorded an upsurge (52% of total cases) in the transmission of COVID-19 during the short period the lockdown was relaxed. This paper presents a concise response framework to highlight some specific multisectoral responses to the pandemic. A combination of social and medical responses to a large extent helped Nigeria curtail the spread of the virus. The potential of overwhelming COVID-19 is still imminent in Nigeria as the country is attempting to hurriedly open the economy, which could sacrifice public health gains for temporary economic gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OMFS training in Europe has incrementally improved over the last 50 years. However, not all European nations have a formal written curriculum/syllabus, quality indicators, exit examinations, or guidelines for training programmes or trainers. In 2021 the OMFS Section of the Union of European Medical Specialists (UEMS) created an OMFS European Training Requirement (OMFS ETR) to help address these gaps and raise training standards in Europe. This paper includes key lessons from OMFS training programmes across Europe. It also summarises the new OMFS ETR as a comprehensive curriculum and syllabus. The ETR is a resource for nations with dual degree or single medical degree versions of the specialty. More importantly, it can act as a template for the handful of European Economic Area (EEA) nations that do not currently have a recognised OMFS specialty in Directive 2005/36 EU or the European Free Trade Association Treaty. By outlining the breadth and depth of the specialty, the ETR will be useful for competent regulatory authorities as well as OMFS trainees and trainers, patients, and politicians. The OMFS ETR includes key competencies and capabilities alongside training structures and documentation. A free unrestricted Access© database can be downloaded from www.omfsuesm.eu so OMFS experience can be recorded in a similar way across international borders. The OMFS ETR will be a living document. As it is unlikely that OMFS will remain frozen in time, this training document will also evolve. Its true value will become clear as it is used by current and future OMFS surgeons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The causes presented in the literature of the middle-income trap are generic, emphasizing the quality of the legal institutions of the country, demographic problems, the lack of social infrastructure, poor macroeconomic policies, etc. were already present in developing countries when they were growing fast. Besides, the income interval used on the studies on the trap was too large. • Instead of promoting the growth, the liberalizing reforms, which were more radical in Latin America than in Asia, caused an increase in the interest rate and dismantled the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease – both facts leading to the chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate, which represented a competitive disadvantage of the companies utilizing the best technology available. • In the economic literature, it is well established that the currencies of the commodity-focused economies tend to be appreciated in the long run because they face the Dutch disease. On the other hand, central banks in the region tend to define a high interest rate around which they organize their monetary policy so as to attract foreign capital and "grow with external savings" – this representing a second major cause of overvaluation of the national currencies of Latin American countries. • The main conclusion of the research is that, in the period of 1980–2016, the Latin American countries didn't fall into middle-income but a liberalization trap; the reason why they have fallen into quasi-stagnation while Asian countries did not lie in the liberal reforms. Opening trade in countries that have the Dutch disease meant dismantling the pragmatic mechanisms that neutralized it; financial liberalization limited the ability of countries to control distorted flows of capital and created conditions for the increase in the interest rate. • The instrument to neutralize the Dutch disease on the domestic market side were import tariffs on manufactured goods. To the extent that they were just neutralizing the Dutch disease, they were not protectionist – they were just giving the local manufacturing industry equal conditions of competition with the companies of other countries. If the import tariffs on manufactured goods were higher than what was required to neutralize the Dutch disease, they would be also protectionist. This paper offers an alternative explanation to the slow-down observed in the growth of developing countries. Instead of a middle-income trap what happened was a liberalization trap. Growth didn't happen because countries turned middle-income, but happened in a given period, around the 1980s, when these countries faced a serious foreign debt crisis and were constrained to open their economies. The studies on the middle-income trap have adopted a broad income interval and were unable to offer new historical facts that explained why these countries stop growing fast. Differently, this paper shows that the trade liberalization and the financial liberalization that started in the 1980s involved the dismantling of the mechanism that neutralized the Dutch disease and the change from low to high interest rates – both facts leading to a long-term or chronic overvaluation of the exchange rate that made the manufacturing industry non-competitive and caused deindustrialization and low growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper aims to explore China's global value chain (GVC) position in relation to those of EU member states, from both total trade value and value-added perspectives. • The paper attempts to research the feasibility of the construction of a China-EU free trade agreement (FTA) by decomposing trade value-added and mapping regional trade network. • The paper endeavours to address the concerns over negative impacts of the label 'Made in China' on the EU economy from the value-added perspective. As the largest trading partner of China, the European Union (the EU) has maintained a close economic and trade relationship with China over the past several decades. However, the deepening of interdependence between them also brought about concerns over negative impacts of the label 'Made in China' on the EU economy. This paper analyses China's global value chain (GVC) position in relation to those of EU member states, followed by a comparative assessment of trade balance and industrial competitiveness between them from both total trade value and value-added perspectives. Our empirical study provides some interesting findings. First, China's trade surplus with and industrial competitiveness over EU member states have been overestimated. In addition, changing the value-chain pattern can be the long-term driving force for a China-EU free trade agreement (FTA). Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions for when and how FTA negotiations can be initiated, mainly from Chinese perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research from the IMF and the World Bank suggests that restrictive trade policies could lead to poor economic growth in many developing countries. This paper exploits over 30 years of panel data from five Southern African Customs Union (SACU) countries – Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland – to investigate the possible link between trade liberalization and economic growth. The paper contributes to the literature by introducing multiple indicators of liberalization to estimate the possible relationships between trade openness and economic growth. In particular, we use four different trade liberalization indicators: (i) tariffs, (ii) real effective exchange rates (REER), (iii) trade ratios, and (iv) adjusted trade ratios. The results from our fixed-effect regression models indicate that there is little, if any, compelling evidence that trade liberalization has had a positive impact on the economic growth on SACU countries over the last 30 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How is wealth distributed when the economy grows? I study this question in the context of African countries and ethnic groups. If wealth is distributed proportional to population, larger ethnic groups should benefit more when economic activity increases. Using nighttime light and individual level data to geographically locate wealth, I find the exact opposite: Smaller ethnic groups, particularly those in political power, benefit more from increased economic activity than larger ones. The results indicate that political elites in power redistribute wealth from larger ethnic groups. As a result, people's satisfaction with democracy and trust in institutions reduces, casting a shadow on the implementation of trade liberalization policies in developing countries. Instrumental variables estimating exploiting exogenous variation in trading activity confirm initial results. • How is wealth distributed when the economy grows? • This Paper provides evidence that political elite capture the gains from trade. • Elite capture has negative consequences for individuals' satisfaction with democracy and trust in institutions. • Results cast a shadow on trade policies' impact on (democratic) development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper conducts a comprehensive long-run analysis of the global spatial concentration and locational dynamics of manufacturing agglomerations in Mexico. While prior research on Mexico has examined the impact of trade liberalisation on processes of regional convergence or divergence, effects on the scale, location and dynamics of agglomerations and local specialisation remain underexplored. To address this gap in the literature, we use a newly-collated municipality-level dataset containing more granular data distinct from more frequently used state-level data. Our analysis spans the period 1950–2019, capturing the full extent of the growing importance of the manufacturing sector and providing a nuanced perspective on the evolution of agglomerations and local specialisation patterns. We investigate shifts in agglomeration during import substitution and following the introduction of trade liberalisation, examining whether new agglomerations emerged or existing ones attracted further economic activity and how these changes impacted local specialisation. In extension, we also examine recent trends, assessing the persistence or alteration of agglomeration dominance in the north of the country. In doing so, our analysis provides valuable insights into the intricate dynamics of agglomerations and local specialisation and their significance in shaping regional disparities. • Analysis of municipality manufacturing agglomerations in Mexico 1950-2019. • Import substitution is characterised by decreasing levels of global agglomeration and specialisation. • Recent decades are characterised by substantial increases of global agglomeration and specialisation. • Manufacturing has become increasingly concentrated in several core agglomerations. • Changing levels of agglomeration and local specialisation have clear implications for regional disparities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• There exists a nonlinear, hump-shaped pattern between prefecture-level trade openness and manufacture labor share in China. • Internal geography is critical in shaping patterns of trade-induced structural change. • Internal reallocations of resources across regions and sectors within one country are central to the economic development. • Place-based policies based on regional stage of structural transformation are needed. Notable heterogeneity regarding international trade openness and level of development across different regions with significant inter-provincial migration has been a prominent feature in contemporary China. This paper studies the particular role of international trade in the structural transformation across each region in China. Combining several data, we document that there exhibits a non-monotone, hump-shaped relationship between international trade freeness and prefecture-level manufacture labor share in China. We rationalize this stylized fact in a spatial equilibrium model with multi-region, multi-sector, costly trade and endogenous allocation of labor, capital, and land. The analysis highlights the role of internal geography in shaping patterns of trade-induced structural change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary In the context of de-regulation of the coffee sector, the registration of some Geographical Indications (GIs) has recently been implemented. This paper aims at answering to the following research question: how does GIs’ process (protection and management) help to rationalize the role of the state in the coffee sector? In Colombia, the National Coffee Growers Federation took all initiatives for the registration and implementation of Café de Colombia as a GI both in Colombia and in European Union and manages also the GI use. In Kenya, the Coffee Directorate registered the certification trademark “Coffee Kenya, So Rich So Kenyan” and acts as public body in charge of managing the coffee sector. Although both countries conceived different approaches, there is a common strategic line, which consists in attempting to secure downstream value of the long lasting origin coffee branding and in strengthening the quality management system. This paper shows that discrepancies in public intervention in the coffee industry depend on the empowerment of producers in this industry irrespective of the legal tool to protect GIs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

India and ASEAN countries have had a good history of trade and international cooperation. Over the years, both have tried hard to expand and intensify their international ties. These ties range from international trade to cross cultural exchanges. The Indian-ASEAN free trade agreement (India-ASEAN FTA) has been a major step in the direction of intensifying cross border trade. After years of deliberation and efforts, the agreement became functional in the year 2010 and since then, the international trade between India and ASEAN has become more significant for every stakeholder, than it ever was. In this paper, we aim to specifically focus on the cooperation in the transportation sector in the context of India-ASEAN FTA. The paper begins with Indian-ASEAN trade relations, which includes the formation of the free trade agreement between both followed by an insight into the current state of the transportation sector in all the countries involved. Further, the import-export scenario of the transportation sector between India-ASEAN has been analysed through graphical representation. This helps to foresee, very briefly, as to how the transportation sector trade between the relevant countries will shape up in the future. The paper concludes highlighting sincere issues related to the transportation sector and draws outline about how the mutual cooperation would facilitate the development of the sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper addresses the role of standardization in risk governance and explores challenges when unifying different system logics and standardizations in the regulator-regulated relationships in different industrial, political, and cultural contexts. • A key perspective in the analysis is to examine the importance of "standardization" as an institutional approach and regulatory mechanism. • The paper aims to contribute to the debate on how standard development may be applied as governmental instruments in risk and safety regulation. • The production of new research-based knowledge in development of standards will help policy makers to establish sound and effective adaptation measures beneficial for environment and society in general. This paper addresses the role of standardization in risk governance and explores challenges when unifying different system logics and standardizations in the regulator-regulated relationships in different industrial, political, and cultural contexts. High-risk regulatory regimes have been at the forefront in developing regulations management, founded on function-, purpose- and goal-based regulations. A key perspective in our analysis is to examine the importance of "standardization" as an institutional approach and regulatory mechanism. The new era of free trade and globalization causes constant reorganization in industries that are trying to seize opportunities and increase competitiveness. The high-risk industries today, therefore, are undergoing major changes, due to downsizing and mergers, which inevitably affect and challenge their safety levels. The paper bases its discussion on several empirical studies of industrial dynamics and innovation in petroleum, mainly from the empirical context of the North Sea petroleum region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a small open economy, dynamic general equilibrium model with cash-in advance constraint and a currency attack to explain the dynamic effects of changes in trade barriers in the short and long run. The model is calibrated using data on macroeconomic variables in Iran's economy from 1990 to 2013 to identify and analyze the effects of barriers imposed on trade. We analyze the effects of counterfactual fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies in response to trade barriers and show how the economy would respond in different time horizons. We also evaluate the effects of eliminating each of the factors causing this stagflation. Our findings show that the short-term drop in non-oil production is mostly due to the decline in total productivity and not trade barriers. On the other hand, barriers imposed on the trade of oil and non-oil goods had a considerable impact on the decline in non-oil production in the medium and long run, as well as the fall in total income. Finally, we show that the news of trade barrier imposition has a considerable impact on the impulse to speculate, giving rise to a likely currency crisis and devaluation that have a substantial effect on inflation and real output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Indonesia with state-dependent pricing (SDP) and studies its implications for policy analysis. Variations in the extensive margin of price adjustment under SDP are shown to non-trivially affect the model-generated variance decompositions and impulse responses to various shocks. DSGE model-based policy analyses conducted without this extensive margin feature might therefore lead to inaccurate policy prescriptions. In particular, the SDP model would call for a greater degree of monetary easing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, than that prescribed by the standard time-dependent pricing (TDP) model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of macroprudential policy and foreign exchange rate intervention in stabilizing the economy facing foreign shocks. To this end, we build a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with a banking sector. We add foreign loans by entrepreneurs regulated by a macroprudential policy via a foreign to domestic loan ratio requirement. The exchange rate intervention is undertaken via a modified Taylor rule. From the analysis, two important results emerge. First, the responses of aggregate output, consumption, investment, and inflation vary widely for different types of foreign shock and policy combinations. Second, the stabilization gain seems to depend on the type of foreign shock hitting the economy. When the economy is hit by a foreign interest rate shock, tightening the macroprudential measure reduces the volatility of output, consumption, and investment-more than if the stabilization effort is carried out through an exchange rate intervention. However, under a risk premium shock, this gain diminishes substantially. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the acceleration of economic globalization and trade liberalization, environmental issues have attracted more and more attention from the world and become one of the major issues facing mankind. A series of global environmental problems that have emerged under the background of economic globalization have become barriers restricting the sustainable development of the economy and society. As one of the key issues in network research, BP neural network provides an effective tool for studying the multi-objective and multi-dimensional interaction between networks. During training, the BP neural network can adaptively memorize the learning content in the weights of the network through learning. That is, the BP neural network has a high self-learning and self-adaptive ability.This paper fully contrasts and studies several neural networks and deep learning models at this stage,This paper fully contrasts and studies several neural networks and deep learning models at this stage, and forms a new type of network model. In this paper, through the construction of BP neural network training model for experimental simulation, the experimental results show that our city's urban expansion phenomenon in 2019 is still showing a growth momentum. The urbanization and eco-environment system of our city are developing in a good level with fast and stable development rate, which indicates that the development under the existing development conditions can realize the coordinated development of urbanization and environment. In order to protect the damaged ecological environment, it is necessary to improve the path of ecological environment damage compensation responsibility and diversified ecological environment damage compensation relief procedures. Academic and legal practitioners can distinguish clearly from the elements of tort construction and environmental tort, improve the system of environmental tort liability, and strengthen China's environmental legislation. • The neural network toolbox is used to implement a multi-layer feedforward network. • Solves the problems of overlapping information in the selection of indicators and the one-sided problems of screened indicators. • The researchers study from three aspects: the causes, the damage assessment methods and the proposed measures. • The research on environmental damage compensation can learn from the environmental damage compensation in the marine field to study other fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to being the world's largest economy, the United States (US) has been the foremost driver of consumer spending, free trade and open skies policies. Trade-driven economic growth and air freight markets have been commonly linked in air transport research. Despite increased security after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, international air imports to the US has continued to grow at a rate faster than consumer spending. This paper aims to evaluate whether gravity models are robust enough to forecast and accurately account for substantial economic shocks such as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Our research suggests that US demand for air freight is highly sensitive to transport costs, competition from sea freight and consumer spending patterns of perishable, low value and high value commodities across the 19 commodity groups examined, rather than manufacturing income or factors associated with product origin, which is all the more interesting in the context of the recent protectionist rhetoric of the US administration. • Developing gravity models for forecasting air cargo demand. • Fitness of model for short to medium term planning. • Combination of commodity and regional analysis. • Our models accurately account for external shocks such as the GFC. • US air cargo demand highly sensitive to consumer spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Being one of the significant conduits linking international and domestic markets, agricultural trade is an area of study that commands attention. While it may bring about transnational carbon emission transfers, it begs the question: does it promote carbon reduction in a country's agricultural sector? Such an inquiry holds profound implications for optimizing agricultural trade and promoting low-carbon agricultural advancement. Utilizing two-way fixed effect model, mediating effect model and dual-fixed spatial Durbin model, this paper examines the impact effects, mechanisms and spatial characteristics of agricultural trade openness (ATO) on agricultural carbon reduction using panel data from Chinese provinces spanning 2000 to 2021. The main findings include: (1) ATO markedly and positively influences the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions (ACE), this conclusion maintains its validity under endogeneity treatment and robustness tests. (2) ATO contributes to reducing ACE through three intermediary channels: scale effect, technological effect, and structural effect. (3) From a spatial perspective, a notable positive spatial spillover effect is observed from agricultural trade openness to agricultural carbon reduction, with the spatial carbon reduction effect being more apparent. (4) The spatial carbon reduction effect of agricultural trade liberalization exhibits heterogeneity across different natural geographical locations and levels of ATO. The study confirms the vital role of ATO in promoting agricultural carbon reduction in typical countries, underscoring the urgency and importance of bolstering cross-border agricultural trade cooperation and domestic agricultural product circulation in the domain of climate change. • The impact of agricultural trade openness (ATO) on agricultural carbon reduction is investigated in China. • The scale, technological, and structural effect of ATO serve as intermediary channels in reducing carbon emissions. • ATO engenders positive spatial spillover effects on agricultural carbon reduction. • Bolstering cross-border agricultural trade cooperation are of importance and urgency in the domain of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies have largely debated and demonstrated the positive effect of economic liberalization on economic growth, but they have not clarified how and to which extent economic liberalization affects corporate investment, the main driver of a country's economic growth. This paper investigates the relationship between economic liberalization and corporate investment by modelling the microeconomic channels through which economic liberalization affects corporate investment. Our theoretical framework extends the standard neoclassical model of firm value maximization to incorporate the effect of economic liberalization on corporate investment via several microeconomic channels. We test the theoretical predictions of our model by using a large and heterogeneous sample of non-financial US firms for the period 2000–2019. The empirical results support our hypotheses that economic liberalization positively affects corporate investment both directly and indirectly through different channels. These effects hold, although with different intensity, for all dimensions of economic liberalization. • We investigate the relationship between economic liberalization and economic growth by modelling the microeconomics channels through which economic liberalization affects corporate investment and hence economic growth. • The theoretical predictions of the model are tested on a large and heterogeneous sample of non-financial U.S and Canadian firms over the period 2000–2019. • Empirical results suggest that economic liberalization positively affects economic growth by enhancing corporate investment via different channels or effects. • These different effects hold, although with different intensity, for many constituent components of economic liberalization/freedom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between EU and India focusing on services trade. Based on the text published by the European Union, it uses the OECD STRI simulator to calculate the preference margins implied by the agreement and next predicts the impact on services trade flows using a general equilibrium structural gravity analysis. I find that the preference margin on the Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) for Indian exports to the EU is between four and eight basis points depending on the sector, while for EU's exports to India the preference margin is between 10 and 35 basis points. The predicted effect is more than a doubling of EU services exports to India, while India's services exports to the EU would increase by about 50%. EU's trade with the rest of the world would not change much, while India's exports to the rest of the world would contract by about 3%. Real services output would not change much in the EU or India. Lifting trade restrictions in the telecommunications sector is the most important policy area for facilitating services trade. About half of the predicted export expansion is driven by reforms to domestic regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research is to investigate the possible economic impacts of the trade liberalization on the environmental quality in Tunisia and Morocco. Specifically, the paper inspects whether or not liberalization of the trade sector has harmed the quality of the environment in both countries. To this end, we conduct various econometric models: a VECM and cointegration techniques for single country case study and a Panel VECM and Panel cointegration when using data of both countries as a group. We also include a dummy variable in each model to see the real impact of trade liberalization for both countries. In the empirical section, we found bidirectional causality between FDI and CO2. This implies that the nature of FDI inflows to Morocco and Tunisia are not clean FDI. These results show that trade liberalization has a negative impact on the environment. The paper concludes that although trade liberalization boosted the economies of both countries by creating new employment opportunities, liberalization has harmed the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper studies how producers and users benefit from reciprocal innovative activities. Ideally, such gains translate in an increased innovative dynamics of knowledge receivers, who accrue pecuniary knowledge externalities and take advantage of these external effects in their own activity. In principle, nothing prevents that, in an increasingly integrated world, knowledge externalities would be generated both in purely domestic as well as cross-country knowledge-based transactions. Nevertheless, the evidence reported in the paper suggests that localized rather than international knowledge externalities are dominating. In the empirical analysis based on a panel of 23 2-digit manufacturing and service sectors in 15 EU countries (1995–2007), dynamic panel techniques permitting to account for the possible reverse causality in the underlying relations are implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of market competition and market expansion on firms' product line decisions. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates cost of management and firm heterogeneity in terms of managerial efficiency. Both the theoretical and empirical analyses show that the home country's final-goods tariff cut (which captures market competition) reduces all home firms' export product lines, while in response to a foreign country's tariff cut (which represents market expansion), those firms with high (low) managerial efficiency expand (reduce) their export product lines. Our empirical analysis is based on data on Chinese firms from 2000 to 2006. The findings are robust to many specifications of the empirical model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nexus between trade openness and energy demand is hot topic of discussion among academicians and researchers, and numerous studies are available in existing literature while investigating the nexus between trade openness and energy demand. This paper explores the relationship between energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth in case of Thailand. In doing so, we have applied Bayer and Hanck cointegration approach to test whether the long run relationship exists between the variables. Our results confirm the presence of cointegration between the variables. Energy consumption stimulates economic growth. Trade openness adds in economic growth. The causality analysis reveals that energy consumption Granger causes economic growth and in resulting, economic growth Granger causes energy consumption. Trade openness and energy consumption are interdependent i.e. trade openness Granger causes energy consumption and in return, energy consumption Granger causes trade openness. This paper openness up new directions for policy making authorities in Thailand to design a comprehensive energy and trade policies to sustain economic growth for long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with tax-policy responses to quasi-hyperbolic discounting. Earlier research on optimal paternalism typically abstracts from capital mobility. If capital is mobile between countries, it may no longer be possible for national governments to control domestic savings via capital taxation (as in a closed economy). In this paper, we take a broad perspective on public policy responses to self-control problems by showing how these responses vary (i) between closed and open economies, (ii) between small open and large open economies, and (iii) depending on whether or not both source based and residence based capital taxes can be used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to empirically analyze the compatibility of national trade liberalization policies with regards to promoting widespread use of renewable energy resources across 71 low, lower-middle and upper-middle income countries from South Asia, East Asia, Pacific, Central Asia, Latin America, Caribbean islands and Sub-Saharan Africa. Annual time series data from 2000 to 2017 is employed to perform panel data cointegration and regression analyses. The results from the cointegration analyses show long-run associations between trade liberalization policies and the renewable energy consumption indicators. The Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Squares panel data estimator is employed to control for the endogeneity in the dataset. The overall results broadly point towards the effectiveness of greater trade openness in facilitating renewable energy transition only in the low-income economies while prolonging the transition periods in the lower and upper-middle income countries. The marginal impact of a rise in the trade openness index is estimated to enhance the renewable energy share in total energy consumption within low-income countries by 0.24% as opposed to lowering this share by 0.19% within lower-middle income economies. However, trade liberalization is found to attribute to greater efficiency of renewable energy use across all the three income groups. Thus, these findings have critically important policy implications for the respective governments. • Trade liberalization exerts heterogeneous impacts on renewable energy transition. • Trade openness increases renewable energy consumption only across the LIC. • Liberal trade policies enhance renewable energy shares only within LIC and UMIC. • Efficiency of renewable energy-use is amplified via trade liberalization. • Higher trade openness accounts for greater access to clean cooking fuels in LMIC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to make full use of renewable energy and improve the utilization of wind power, a new joint optimization scheme of the wind-hydrogen system coupled with transmission project is proposed in this paper, in which wind power is reasonably allocated for grid integration and for hydrogen production. Aiming at maximize the annul wind-hydrogen system benefit, the optimal sizes of wind power transmission project and hydrogen system are obtained under different hydrogen production modes, hydrogen trading modes and hydrogen demand levels. In addition, the penalty cost of wind curtailment and hydrogen supply shortage and the system environmental benefits are taken into account. Results show: during the long-term of insufficient of wind power, it is better to produce hydrogen using wind power and grid-assisted power to avoid hydrogen supply shortage; considering the future increase of hydrogen demand, the optimal supply number of hydrogen refueling stations in the wind-hydrogen system is two. Also, the low utilization of fuel cells means that the benefit from regeneration cannot offset the high cost, which leads to the abnegation of fuel cells in the wind-hydrogen system. Image 1 • Sizing of a wind-hydrogen system considering transmission project is proposed. • Contract trading and free market trading for hydrogen sale are explored. • Sizing with different hydrogen demand, production and trading modes is studied. • Producing hydrogen by wind and grid-assisted power is more beneficial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Even though there has been massive research on the impact of trade liberalization on various aspects of economic performance, its impact on trade deficits have been virtually ignored. This is partly due to the underlying theoretical framework which is based on patently unrealistic assumptions and which rules out chronic trade deficits. Within such context, the paper argues that there is no theoretical or empirical justification for postulating an automatically balancing external trade in developing countries. Using a historical case study of Ethiopia, it also shows that chronic deficits are fundamentally structural in nature and therefore cannot be reversed without bringing about structural transformation of the economy from low-skill, low technology productive structure to high-skill, high technology intensive productive structure. It also concludes that such structural transformation cannot be realized under a liberal external trade regime which forces a country to specialize based on its 'natural' comparative advantage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A methodology to compute empirical Net Product Possibility Frontiers-a sort of Production Possibility Frontiers-is provided. • The methodology is used to evaluate Comparative Advantages in Europe. • The results suggest that Comparative Advantages did not work well in Europe during the period 1995-2011. One of the most well-known theories of international trade suggests that when markets are left free to operate, countries should specialise according to their Comparative Advantages (CAs). However, the results provided by Boglioni and Zambelli (2017) suggest that CAs do not seem to have worked in Europe during the period 1995–2011. The computation of the Net Product Possibility Frontier (NPPF) implies that we need to make assumptions about the tradability of the output and also of the means of production (i.e. the inputs of each industry). In this paper, we compute the NPPF associated with a case in which both the final goods and the means of production are considered to be tradable. There is evidence that for the case of the European Union, the national specialisation and the efficient allocation of resources implied by standard CAs theory seem not to have been realised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Existing energy policies' impacts on long-term CO2 mitigation is limited. • Delayed NDC enhancement might result in significant reduction on energy service. • Early enhancement with carbon trading could effectively reduce the system cost. • Cost-optimal enhancing plan requires huge investment in developing regions. CO2 mitigation in the global energy system is critical in tackling climate change, each region should design its long-term strategies and implement policies accordingly to promote the energy transformation. To evaluate the impacts of existing energy policies and propose possible enhanced NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions), this paper applied a 14-region global model to explore the transitions of the global and regional energy system. With the modelling of early and late NDCs enhancing plan for 2-degree target, the required energy transition of each plan was analyzed, together with the vital challenges and potential economic impacts. Model results show: 1. Existing energy policies can reduce the annual emission growth rate to 0.6% for 2015 – 2020, while their influence on long-term mitigation is limited; 2. If enhanced NDCs begin from 2030 onwards after realizing current goals, 2-degree target would become quite challenging in later period, some regions will have to cut the energy service drastically; 3. With the assumption of early enhancement and free carbon trading in the cost-optimal enhancing plan, the total cost of global energy system could be reduced by 10% in 2050, compared with the former plan; 4. Under this cost-optimal enhancing plan, developing regions may face great challenges in short to medium term, 122% of additional investment should be put in power sector in 2030, international support on both technology and finance would be essential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel agent-based model (ABM) to assess actual informal water market (IWM) trade—a highly common form of reallocating water globally, but where analysis is challenging due to data paucity. Because, typically, there is not an integrated or centralized institution coordinating transactions in IWMs, social networks and communications between farmers play a key role. This makes applications of ABMs in the informal space appealing and useful. Survey and interview data are used for the model development via a sample of farmers in Mojen Area, Iran. Also, in the final model, some critical human behaviors (e.g. adaptability and self-interest) are described in the form of parameters and formulas, with optimum values calibrated based on the Mojen sample as well as making possible a detailed assessment of the effects on water transaction and farmers' profit margins. The result of the simulation reveals that IWM trade frees up water for use by other farmers in the Mojen area, especially when stronger social networks are in place where the average number of water transactions will be increased—about 50%. The presence of IWMs also contributes to a more stable cultivation area in dry years, where water trading helps protect perennial crops that have become an increased production system choice in recent years. Further, informal water markets help farmers to optimally use water supply in order to deal with lower rainfall years and fulfil water needs during higher rainfall years due to increasing cultivation areas. [Display omitted] • An agent-based social network model for informal water market (IWM) simulation is developed. • A method of trades and an updating rule for simulating profit margins are proposed. • Experience, prior knowledge, and land area are three factors affecting water exchanges. • IWM can greatly improve the situation of water scarcity. • IWM stimulates farmers to use water in the best way in both trading and irrigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Trade liberalisation can have opposing effects on the gender wage gap due to taste-based discrimination, depending on the direction of trade and on the domestic level of concentration. • A greater export potential has a competition effect through the selection of the low-cost firms in non-concentrated sectors. • A greater export potential can increase profits of domestic firms' in concentrated sectors and enable discriminatory firms to maintain wage gaps. • The Uruguayan trade liberalisation episode in the 90s is used to illustrate empirically the prediction of the model. This paper studies the effect of trade liberalisation on gender wage inequality. A simple trade model with employer taste-based discrimination and imperfect competition provides an explanation for the heterogeneous effects of international trade on the gender wage gap within sectors. While import competition reduces rents and with them the gender wage gap, the effect of exports depends on the level of concentration of a sector. On the one hand, easier access to foreign markets has a competition effect through the selection of the low-cost firms in non-concentrated sectors. On the other hand, better export opportunities with easier access to foreign markets can increase profits of domestic firms' in concentrated sectors and thus enable discriminatory firms to maintain wage gaps. Evidence from Uruguay supports the empirical relevance of the taste-based discrimination mechanism at the sector level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The China-ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) has been recognized as a significant progress in regional economic integration for member countries. While the existing literature has widely studied the trade effects of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), it remains unclear how it affects environment-related input use. This paper examines the impacts of agricultural trade liberalization on the domestic fertilizer use following the CAFTA. Using a combined dataset consisting of country- and product-level fertilizer use and predictors over the period 1995–2015, this paper empirically examines the impact of CAFTA on the domestic fertilizer use for the exported fresh fruits and vegetables (FFV) from China to ASEAN members. We use the synthesis control method to identify the aggregate impacts of CAFTA on the domestic fertilizer use, followed by the propensity score matching difference-in-difference (PSM-DID) method to examine the mechanism through which fertilizer use is increased. We find that the total volumes of the domestic fertilizer use for Chinese exported FFV increased significantly following the implementation of the Early Harvest Program under CAFTA in 2004. This impact is more evident for exports to the initial ASEAN members compared to the new members. The PSM-DID results suggest that CAFTA increased the degree of export concentration on ASEAN members. The evidence is consistent with the export diversion effect of a customs union instead of the export creation effect due to trade liberalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic impact of natural disasters has been neglected in the mainstream theories of development and economic growth. Only recently has a body of research into the economic effects of natural disasters begun to emerge. This recent research has taken into account the socio-economic impact of disasters, and has explored the influence of the pre-disaster socio-economic structure on the response to a disaster event when it occurs. However, a great deal of research fails to effectively examine this relationship within a general macroeconomic framework. In the absence of such attempts, this article aims to explore the dynamic effects of climatic disasters on key economic variables in the State of Queensland for the period of 2002 to 2011. The paper draws on the principles of a Kaleckian-Post- Keynesian multi-sectoral open economy theory, using powerful time series analysis and estimation techniques. Assuming natural disasters to be exogenous random shocks, this paper explores whether macroeconomic variables in the model differ significantly in their response to extreme climatic shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper examines the effects of tariff removal on consumers’ welfare focusing on the Colombian trade liberalization process and its automobile industry. Using product level data this paper calculates the post-reform gains in consumers’ welfare to be just below three thousand dollars per purchaser. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the gains achieved are due, for the most part, to increased variety rather than to price competition. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Interest from the research and policy community in the circular economy (CE) is growing. This research describes how the potential for a circular economy in open economies can be estimated by using different assessment methods. Methods and indicators have been selected that have a relevance for one or more of the public policy objectives for circular economy: Openness Index, economic structure, Balassa Index, value chain analysis, substitution potential of Sustainable Materials Management (SMM) strategies, waste treatment scenarios based on physical and hybrid Input-Output (IO) analysis. These methods differ in scope and degrees of complexity and are used at different assessment levels. The potential for a circular economy in this paper is assessed by evaluating the contribution to the public policy objectives for CE: resource efficiency, reduction of dependency on materials, competitiveness, creation of domestic jobs, reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. Results obtained by these methods are shown for Belgium and, in some cases, compared to the results of other countries to illustrate the differences between economies. CE activities (in response to public policy objectives) will enhance the ongoing trend of reducing the share of primary sectors in economies. The openness of an economy is expressed as the ratio of sum of import and export and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Imported products add to the potential of domestic closed-loop circular initiatives like re-use, repair, remanufacture, recycling, but this will require knowledge about composition and spare part availability. Exported products are no longer available for these domestic CE initiatives, reducing the domestic potential for CE and the domestic export activity is vulnerable to CE activities abroad. Especially the increasing geographical distance in trade complicates the practical and legal barriers to close the loop. In open economies, both global and domestic substitution effects due to new circular economy policy initiatives are important to consider. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For nearly six decades or more, international trade policy has been largely dictated by UN (now WTO) supervised rounds of mutual tariff reductions, starting with the Kennedy round in 1961. Initially attention was focused on tariffs as such, but more recently the scope has been extended to include services, investment, intellectual property rights, free trade associations, and sensitive issues like agricultural goods. As the negotiations became more complicated (and controversial), the speed at which new agreements were agreed slowed down markedly. It became popular to argue that bilateral deals, and then agreements that allowed the emerging trade associations to merge, would be a better way forward-in the hope that mergers between the larger associations would lead to free trade world-wide. Instead, as the academic literature predicted, trading arrangements have gone in the opposite direction with economies withdrawing from established associations or violating old ones. This paper, by "reverse engineering" the costs of Brexit as an example, sets out and examines the costs and different ways a country might disengage itself from a trade association suspected to no longer be advantageous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a computable general equilibrium framework, this paper uses Sri Lanka and Bangladesh as case studies in examining the associated macroeconomic and sectoral impacts under two different climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that a nation's welfare deteriorates due to technical efficiency losses from climate change. Neither unilateral nor regional trade liberalization as a mitigating option improves welfare in these countries. For Sri Lanka, global full trade liberalization of all commodities is the optimum policy with some welfare gains. For Bangladesh on the other hand, regional partial agricultural trade liberalization is the optimum option with the least welfare deterioration. These results show that under climate change, countries within South Asia should respond differently to climate-induced crop productivity changes and no one optimum policy fits all. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]