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Skin cancer has a significant impact on the lives of many individuals annually and is recognized as the most prevalent type of cancer. In the United States, an estimated annual incidence of approximately 3.5 million people receiving a diagnosis of skin cancer underscores its widespread prevalence. Furthermore, the prognosis for individuals afflicted with advancing stages of skin cancer experiences a substantial decline in survival rates. This paper is dedicated to aiding healthcare experts in distinguishing between benign and malignant skin cancer cases by employing a range of machine learning and deep learning techniques and different feature extractors and feature selectors to enhance the evaluation metrics. In this paper, different transfer learning models are employed as feature extractors, and to enhance the evaluation metrics, a feature selection layer is designed, which includes diverse techniques such as Univariate, Mutual Information, ANOVA, PCA, XGB, Lasso, Random Forest, and Variance. Among transfer models, DenseNet-201 was selected as the primary feature extractor to identify features from data. Subsequently, the Lasso method was applied for feature selection, utilizing diverse machine learning approaches such as MLP, XGB, RF, and NB. To optimize accuracy and precision, ensemble methods were employed to identify and enhance the best-performing models. The study provides accuracy and sensitivity rates of 87.72% and 92.15%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing availability of bridge data from the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) offers a great opportunity to perform predictive analytics (such as bridge deterioration prediction) using machine learning (ML) pipelines for supporting bridge asset management. However, data quality issues (e.g., outliers and missing values) can significantly affect ML pipelines, requiring upstream tasks to be performed for ensuring the validity, applicability, and generalizability of pipelines. Among the tasks, outlier removal and missing value imputation are the most challenging due to a highly laborious process, a lack of data governance, and a mixture of heterogenous data quality issues and data types. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an upstream workflow for enhancing the downstream predictive analytics of bridge-related ML pipelines. The proposed upstream workflow was developed based on the NBI data collected for all States in the United States, which includes a total of 617,084 observations/bridges. Existing bridge domain knowledge from multiple sources (such as the bridge design manual and regulations) was leveraged to remove outliers. Then, this study applied and compared 10 statistical and ML-based data imputation techniques to impute missing values. Statistical analysis and imputation evaluation of NBI data indicated that: (1) 19 and 15 out of the total 38 frequently used features or variables had outliers and missing values, respectively; (2) categorical features are generally more prone to data dropping due to inapplicable values, while numeric features are more subjected to outliers; and (3) ML-based data imputation is more suitable than statistical imputation for both numeric and categorical features, especially for features with high missing rate. The proposed workflow was validated on its capability of improving downstream predictive analytics for bridge deck condition prediction, increasing the balanced accuracy by 6.85%–9.76%. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by offering a novel upstream workflow that can be utilized as a benchmark for guiding researchers and bridge engineering practitioners to handle NBI data quality issues for better preforming predictive analytics using ML pipelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h−1, as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement: Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h−1. Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting epidemic evolution is essential for making informed decisions and guiding the implementation of necessary countermeasures. Computational models are vital tools that provide insights into illness progression and enable early detection, proactive intervention, and targeted preventive measures. This paper introduces Sybil, a framework that integrates machine learning and variant-aware compartmental models, leveraging a fusion of data-centric and analytic methodologies. To validate and evaluate Sybil's forecasts, we employed COVID-19 data from several European and U.S. states. The dataset included the number of new and recovered cases, fatalities, and variant presence over time. We evaluate the forecasting precision of Sybil in periods in which there is a change in the trend of the pandemic evolution or a new variant appears. Results demonstrate that Sybil outperforms conventional data-centric approaches, being able to forecast accurately the changes in the trend, the magnitude of these changes, and the future prevalence of new variants., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Objectives: Buprenorphine is an effective evidence-based medication for opioid use disorder (OUD). Yet premature discontinuation undermines treatment effectiveness, increasing the risk of mortality and overdose. We developed and evaluated a machine learning (ML) framework for predicting buprenorphine care discontinuity within 12 months following treatment initiation., Methods: This retrospective study used United States (US) 2018-2021 MarketScan commercial claims data of insured individuals aged 18-64 who initiated buprenorphine between July 2018 and December 2020 with no buprenorphine prescriptions in the previous six months. We measured buprenorphine prescription discontinuation gaps of ≥30 days within 12 months of initiating treatment. We developed predictive models employing logistic regression, decision tree classifier, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, Adaboost, and random forest-extreme gradient boosting ensemble. We applied recursive feature elimination with cross-validation to reduce dimensionality and identify the most predictive features while maintaining model robustness. For model validation, we used several statistics to evaluate performance, such as C-statistics and precision-recall curves. We focused on two distinct treatment stages: at the time of treatment initiation and one and three months after treatment initiation. We employed SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis that helped us explain the contributions of different features in predicting buprenorphine discontinuation. We stratified patients into risk subgroups based on their predicted likelihood of treatment discontinuation, dividing them into decile subgroups. Additionally, we used a calibration plot to analyze the reliability of the models., Results: A total of 30,373 patients initiated buprenorphine and 14.98% (4551) discontinued treatment. C-statistic varied between 0.56 and 0.76 for the first-stage models including patient-level demographic and clinical variables. Inclusion of proportion of days covered (PDC) measured after one month and three months following treatment initiation significantly increased the models' discriminative power (C-statistics: 0.60 to 0.82). Random forest (C-statistics: 0.76, 0.79 and 0.82 with baseline predictors, one-month PDC and three-months PDC, respectively) outperformed other ML models in discriminative performance in all stages (C-statistics: 0.56 to 0.77). Most influential risk factors of discontinuation included early stage medication adherence, age, and initial days of supply., Conclusion: ML algorithms demonstrated a good discriminative power in identifying patients at higher risk of buprenorphine care discontinuity. The proposed framework may help healthcare providers optimize treatment strategies and deliver targeted interventions to improve buprenorphine care continuity., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

This study integrates advanced machine learning techniques, namely Artificial Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Unit models, to forecast monkeypox outbreaks in Canada, Spain, the USA, and Portugal. The research focuses on the effectiveness of these models in predicting the spread and severity of cases using data from June 3 to December 31, 2022, and evaluates them against test data from January 1 to February 7, 2023. The study highlights the potential of neural networks in epidemiology, especially concerning recent monkeypox outbreaks. It provides a comparative analysis of the models, emphasizing their capabilities in public health strategies. The research identifies optimal model configurations and underscores the efficiency of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in training. The findings suggest that ANN models, particularly those with optimized Root Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and the Coefficient of Determination values, are effective in infectious disease forecasting and can significantly enhance public health responses., Competing Interests: The author declares that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper., (Copyright: © 2024 Lulah Alnaji. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted governments worldwide to implement a range of containment measures, including mass gathering restrictions, social distancing, and school closures. Despite these efforts, vaccines continue to be the safest and most effective means of combating such viruses. Yet, vaccine hesitancy persists, posing a significant public health concern, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 variants. To effectively address this issue, timely data is crucial for understanding the various factors contributing to vaccine hesitancy. While previous research has largely relied on traditional surveys for this information, recent sources of data, such as social media, have gained attention. However, the potential of social media data as a reliable proxy for information on population hesitancy, especially when compared with survey data, remains underexplored. This paper aims to bridge this gap. Our approach uses social, demographic, and economic data to predict vaccine hesitancy levels in the ten most populous US metropolitan areas. We employ machine learning algorithms to compare a set of baseline models that contain only these variables with models that incorporate survey data and social media data separately. Our results show that XGBoost algorithm consistently outperforms Random Forest and Linear Regression, with marginal differences between Random Forest and XGBoost. This was especially the case with models that incorporate survey or social media data, thus highlighting the promise of the latter data as a complementary information source. Results also reveal variations in influential variables across the five hesitancy classes, such as age, ethnicity, occupation, and political inclination. Further, the application of models to different MSAs yields mixed results, emphasizing the uniqueness of communities and the need for complementary data approaches. In summary, this study underscores social media data's potential for understanding vaccine hesitancy, emphasizes the importance of tailoring interventions to specific communities, and suggests the value of combining different data sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research utilizes the Long-Term Pavement Performance database, focusing on devel-oping a predictive model for flexible pavement performance in the Southern United States. Analyzing 367 pavement sections, this study investigates crucial factors influencing asphaltic concrete (AC) pavement deterioration, such as structural and material components, air voids, compaction density, temperature at laydown, traffic load, precipitation, and freeze–thaw cycles. The objective of this study is to develop a predictive machine learning model for AC pavement wheel path cracking (WpCrAr) and the age at which cracking initiates (WpCrAr) as performance indicators. This study thoroughly investigated three ensemble machine learning models, including random forest, extremely randomized trees (ETR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). It was observed that XGBoost, optimized using Bayesian methods, emerged as the most effective among the evaluated models, demonstrating good predictive accuracy, with an R2 of 0.79 for WpCrAr and 0.92 for AgeCrack and mean absolute errors of 1.07 and 0.74, respectively. The most important features influencing crack initiation and progression were identified, including equivalent single axle load (ESAL), pavement age, number of layers, precipitation, and freeze–thaw cycles. This paper also showed the impact of pavement material combinations for base and subgrade layers on the delay of crack initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial Intelligence (AI) carries the potential for unprecedented disruption in radiology, with possible positive and negative consequences. The integration of AI in radiology holds the potential to revolutionize healthcare practices by advancing diagnosis, quantification, and management of multiple medical conditions. Nevertheless, the ever‑growing availability of AI tools in radiology highlights an increasing need to critically evaluate claims for its utility and to differentiate safe product offerings from potentially harmful, or fundamentally unhelpful ones. This multi‑society paper, presenting the views of Radiology Societies in the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, defines the potential practical problems and ethical issues surrounding the incorporation of AI into radiological practice. In addition to delineating the main points of concern that developers, regulators, and purchasers of AI tools should consider prior to their introduction into clinical practice, this statement also suggests methods to monitor their stability and safety in clinical use, and their suitability for possible autonomous function. This statement is intended to serve as a useful summary of the practical issues which should be considered by all parties involved in the development of radiology AI resources, and their implementation as clinical tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The debate about the efficacy of mergers and acquisitions as a growth strategy in terms of ex-post value creation has been developing for decades. This paper aims to create an artificial neural network that examines trends in the financials and marks the potential sources of value creation in the high-tech industry mergers between 2011 and 2021. The findings demonstrate that ANN can be implemented as a highly efficient model for analyzing complex financial events due to its flexibility and lack of prior assumptions about the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic constituted a major life stress event for many adolescents, associated with disrupted school, behaviors, social networks, and health concerns. However, pandemic-related stress was not equivalent for everyone and could have been influenced by pre-pandemic factors including brain structure and sleep, which both undergo substantial development during adolescence. Here, we analyzed clusters of perceived stress levels across the pandemic and determined developmentally relevant pre-pandemic risk factors in brain structure and sleep of persistently high stress during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated longitudinal changes in perceived stress at six timepoints across the first year of the pandemic (May 2020–March 2021) in 5559 adolescents (50 % female; age range: 11–14 years) in the United States (U.S.) participating in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study. In 3141 of these adolescents, we fitted machine learning models to identify the most important pre-pandemic predictors from structural MRI brain measures and self-reported sleep data that were associated with persistently high stress across the first year of the pandemic. Patterns of perceived stress levels varied across the pandemic, with 5 % reporting persistently high stress. Our classifiers accurately detected persistently high stress (AUC > 0.7). Pre-pandemic brain structure, specifically cortical volume in temporal regions, and cortical thickness in multiple parietal and occipital regions, predicted persistent stress. Pre-pandemic sleep difficulties and short sleep duration were also strong predictors of persistent stress, along with more advanced pubertal stage. Adolescents showed variable stress responses during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, and some reported persistently high stress across the whole first year. Vulnerability to persistent stress was evident in several brain structural and self-reported sleep measures, collected before the pandemic, suggesting the relevance of other pre-existing individual factors beyond pandemic-related factors, for persistently high stress responses. • The paper reports findings from the ABCD study® on U.S. youth across the first COVID-19 pandemic year: May 2020 – March 2021. • 5% of adolescents reported persistently high stress levels during the first year of the pandemic. • Persistent stress was linked to pre pandemic brain structure, sleep difficulties, and more advanced puberty stages. • The findings inform preventive and treatment approaches for persistent stress during major life stress events like pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the relationship between news sentiment and changes in housing market movements. It provides a novel and straightforward approach to account for heterogeneous expectations of market actors within a probabilistic framework utilizing machine learning. Our novel sentiment index shows a persistent and statistically significant explanatory power for the prediction of the housing market, in contrast to common dictionary approaches. This holds for news headlines and abstracts and different definitions of sentiment indices. Our results can be regarded as the first sentiment-based evidence of heterogeneous actors in the housing market and underline the importance of different expectations for measuring non-fundamental drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In literature, many studies try to analyze healthcare usage and generated decision support systems. In this paper, the aim is to generate a decision support system for insurance companies in the United States according to the federal dataset. The data set contains variables from the United States Healthcare Administration formal data group and they are; group of age, group of healthcare insurance, group of nationality, Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) usage, and Advance Premium Tax Credit (APTC) usage. The best model for each state in the United States is determined with the dataset from 2014 November to 2015 February. In this study, various statistical models are attempted to generate independent and optimal models for each state. In the model selection process, three different metrics are used. Accuracy rate, f1score and precision score are used in the model selection process and models are compared to each other according to these three metrics for each state uniquely. Consequently, the proposed model is used with a decision support scheme to support customer service workers in healthcare insurance companies. The decision support system under consideration can facilitate a substantial decrease in the duration of interactions between customer service representatives and clients. Additionally, this system can generate more logically sound and efficient customer offers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several reservoirs across the United States are filling with sediment, which jeopardizes their functionality and increases maintenance costs. USACE developed the Reservoir Sedimentation Information (RSI) system to assess reservoir aggradation and track dam operation suitability for water resource management and dam safety. The RSI data set contains historical elevation-capacity data for approximately 400 dams (excluding navigation structures), which correspond to less than 1% of dams across the United States. Thus, there is a critical need to develop methods for estimating reservoir sedimentation for unmonitored sites. The goal of this project was to create a generalized method for estimating reservoir sedimentation rates using reservoir design information and watershed data. To meet this objective, geospatial tools were used to build a refined composite data set to complement the RSI system's data with precipitation and watershed characteristics. Nine deep learning models were then used on the benchmark data set to determine its accuracy at predicting capacity loss for the RSI reservoirs: four supervised machine learning models, four deep neural network (DNN) models, and a multilinear power regression model. A DNN model, containing a progressively increasing node and layer construction, was deemed the most accurate, with R2 values from its calibration and validation data sets being 0.83 and 0.70, respectively. The best model was recalibrated over the entire data set, which showed greater accuracy on the prediction of the RSI reservoir's capacity loss, with an R2 of 0.81. This predictive model could be used to evaluate the capacity loss of unmonitored reservoirs, forecast sedimentation rates under future climate conditions, and identify reservoirs with the highest risk of losing functionality. Practical Applications: Many communities depend on reservoirs for a variety of socioeconomic benefits, such as providing reliable water sources and flood mitigation. Rivers entering reservoirs are a constant source of silt, sand, and gravel particles (i.e., sediments) that deposit slowly, filling the reservoirs over time, thus reducing their volume capacity and effectiveness. Surveys to measure reservoir capacities are labor intensive and expensive and many sites go unmonitored. This study provides prediction tools to estimate capacity loss over time using data derived from publicly available data sources (e.g., digital elevation models, monthly precipitation data, and the National Inventory of Dams). A key role of this tool is to forecast reservoir capacity loss over time under varying climate change conditions and relate the associated sedimentation processes to local and regional conditions. The tool can also be applied broadly to hindcast capacity loss for reservoirs with or without prior surveys for identifying high-risk sites that should be investigated further. USACE plans to use these prediction tools with the RSI database to conduct a national assessment of reservoir impacts, which will inform distributions of federal resources to address water security concerns related to reservoir sedimentation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among individuals aged 5 to 24 in the United States (US). However, the precursors to suicide often do not surface, making suicide prevention challenging. This study aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting suicide ideation (SI), suicide planning (SP), and suicide attempts (SA) among adolescents in the US during the coronavirus pandemic. We used the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey Data. Class imbalance was addressed using the proposed data augmentation method tailored for binary variables, Modified Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique. Five different ML models were trained and compared. SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis was conducted for explainability. The Logistic Regression model, identified as the most effective, showed superior performance across all targets, achieving high scores in recall: 0.82, accuracy: 0.80, and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve: 0.88. Variables such as sad feelings, hopelessness, sexual behavior, and being overweight were noted as the most important predictors. Our model holds promise in helping health policymakers design effective public health interventions. By identifying vulnerable sub-groups within regions, our model can guide the implementation of tailored interventions that facilitate early identification and referral to medical treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two-vehicle crashes resulting from distracted driving led to a higher number of fatalities and serious injuries over time. This study utilized machine learning and econometric models to investigate two-vehicle-involved distracted driving crashes from the Crash Report Sampling System within the United States. XGBoost and Random Forest were utilized to identify the top variables based on SHAP value, although mixed logit with unobserved heterogeneity was used to model injury severity. The model results indicate that there is a complex interaction of driver characteristics, such as demographics (male drivers), driver actions (careless driving, driving more than the speed limit of more than 15 mph, hitting a stopped vehicle), a driver without violation history, turning violation, drinking, roadway characteristics (non-interstate highways, undivided and divided roadways with positive barrier, curved roadways, dry surface), environmental conditions (rainy weather), vehicle attributes (motorcycle, displacement volume up to 2500 cc, newer vehicle within five years of crash-involvement), temporal characteristics (4–6 PM, July–September, and year 2017). These findings underscore the importance of driving behavior and roadway design. As such, prioritizing efforts to address distracted driving behavior through driver training and law enforcement, as well as considering its implications for roadway design and maintenance, becomes crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Modeling ecological patterns and processes often involve large‐scale and complex high‐dimensional spatial data. Due to the nonlinearity and multicollinearity of ecological data, traditional geostatistical methods have faced great challenges in model accuracy. As machine learning has increased our ability to construct models on big data, the main focus of the study is to propose the use of statistical models that hybridize machine learning and spatial interpolation methods to cope with increasingly large‐scale and complex ecological data. Here, two machine learning algorithms, boosted regression tree (BRT) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), were combined with ordinary kriging (OK) to model plant invasions across the eastern United States. The accuracies of the hybrid models and conventional models were evaluated by 10‐fold cross‐validation. Based on an invasive plants dataset of 15 ecoregions across the eastern United States, the results showed that the hybrid algorithms were significantly better at predicting plant invasion when compared to commonly used algorithms in terms of RMSE and paired‐samples t‐test (with the p‐value <.0001). Besides, the additional aspect of the combined algorithms is to have the ability to select influential variables associated with the establishment of invasive cover, which cannot be achieved by conventional geostatistics. Higher accuracy in the prediction of large‐scale biological invasions improves our understanding of the ecological conditions that lead to the establishment and spread of plants into novel habitats across spatial scales. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the hybrid BRTOK and LASOK that can be used to analyze large‐scale and high‐dimensional spatial datasets, and it has offered an optional source of models for spatial interpolation of ecology properties. It will also provide a better basis for management decisions in early‐detection modeling of invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are increasingly impacting social and environmental systems in the United States (US). The ability to mitigate the adverse effects of wildfires increases with understanding of the social, physical, and biological conditions that co-occurred with or caused the wildfire ignitions and contributed to the wildfire impacts. To this end, we developed the FPA FOD-Attributes dataset, which augments the sixth version of the Fire Program Analysis Fire-Occurrence Database (FPA FOD v6) with nearly 270 attributes that coincide with the date and location of each wildfire ignition in the US. FPA FOD v6 contains information on location, jurisdiction, discovery time, cause, and final size of >2.3×106 wildfires in the US between 1992 and 2020. For each wildfire, we added physical (e.g., weather, climate, topography, and infrastructure), biological (e.g., land cover and normalized difference vegetation index), social (e.g., population density and social vulnerability index), and administrative (e.g., national and regional preparedness level and jurisdiction) attributes. This publicly available dataset can be used to answer numerous questions about the covariates associated with human- and lightning-caused wildfires. Furthermore, the FPA FOD-Attributes dataset can support descriptive, diagnostic, predictive, and prescriptive wildfire analytics, including the development of machine learning models. The FPA FOD-Attributes dataset is available at 10.5281/zenodo.8381129 (Pourmohamad et al., 2023). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately forecasting daily hotel occupancy is critical for revenue managers. Limited research focuses on predicting daily hotel occupancy by implementing traditional forecasting techniques, which only require a little statistical knowledge or expensive software for small independent properties. This study employs longitudinal daily occupancy data from multiple properties in urban settings within the United States to test four forecasting models for short-term (1–90 day) predictions. The results showed that Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) was most accurate for four horizons, while Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was better for shorter-term predictions in the other seven. In conclusion, these results demonstrate that small independent properties may successfully implement traditional forecasting methods for accurate daily occupancy forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial intelligence models represented in machine learning algorithms are promising tools for risk assessment used to guide clinical and other health care decisions. Machine learning algorithms, however, may house biases that propagate stereotypes, inequities, and discrimination that contribute to socioeconomic health care disparities. The biases include those related to some sociodemographic characteristics such as race, ethnicity, gender, age, insurance, and socioeconomic status from the use of erroneous electronic health record data. Additionally, there is concern that training data and algorithmic biases in large language models pose potential drawbacks. These biases affect the lives and livelihoods of a significant percentage of the population in the United States and globally. The social and economic consequences of the associated backlash cannot be underestimated. Here, we outline some of the sociodemographic, training data, and algorithmic biases that undermine sound health care risk assessment and medical decision-making that should be addressed in the health care system. We present a perspective and overview of these biases by gender, race, ethnicity, age, historically marginalized communities, algorithmic bias, biased evaluations, implicit bias, selection/sampling bias, socioeconomic status biases, biased data distributions, cultural biases and insurance status bias, conformation bias, information bias and anchoring biases and make recommendations to improve large language model training data, including de-biasing techniques such as counterfactual role-reversed sentences during knowledge distillation, fine-tuning, prefix attachment at training time, the use of toxicity classifiers, retrieval augmented generation and algorithmic modification to mitigate the biases moving forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspections of concrete bridges across the United States represent a significant commitment of resources, given their biannual mandate for many structures. With a notable number of aging bridges, there is an imperative need to enhance the efficiency of these inspections. This study harnessed the power of computer vision to streamline the inspection process. Our experiment examined the efficacy of a state-of-the-art Visual Transformer (ViT) model combined with distinct image enhancement detector algorithms. We benchmarked against a deep learning Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model. These models were applied to over 20,000 high-quality images from the Concrete Images for Classification dataset. Traditional crack detection methods often fall short due to their heavy reliance on time and resources. This research pioneers bridge inspection by integrating ViT with diverse image enhancement detectors, significantly improving concrete crack detection accuracy. Notably, a custom-built CNN achieves over 99% accuracy with substantially lower training time than ViT, making it an efficient solution for enhancing safety and resource conservation in infrastructure management. These advancements enhance safety by enabling reliable detection and timely maintenance, but they also align with Industry 4.0 objectives, automating manual inspections, reducing costs, and advancing technological integration in public infrastructure management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous non-invasive blood pressure (CNBP) monitoring is of the utmost importance in detecting and managing hypertension, a leading cause of death in the United States. Extensive research has delved into pioneering methods for predicting systolic and diastolic blood pressure values by leveraging pulse arrival time (PAT), the time difference between the proximal and distal signal peaks. The most widely employed pairing involves electrocardiography (ECG) and photoplethysmography (PPG). Possessing similar characteristics in terms of measuring blood flow changes, a recently investigated optical signal known as speckleplethysmography (SPG) showed its stability and high signal-to-noise ratio compared with PPG. Thus, SPG is a potential surrogate to pair with ECG for CNBP estimation. The present study aims to unlock the untapped potential of SPG as a signal for non-invasive blood pressure monitoring based on PAT. To ascertain SPG's capabilities, eight subjects were enrolled in multiple recording sessions. A third-party device was employed for ECG and PPG measurements, while a commercial device served as the reference for arterial blood pressure (ABP). SPG measurements were obtained using a prototype smartphone-based system. Following the completion of three scenarios—sitting, walking, and running—the subjects' signals and ABP were recorded to investigate the predictive capacity of systolic blood pressure. The collected data were processed and prepared for machine learning models, including support vector regression and decision tree regression. The models' effectiveness was evaluated using root-mean-square error and mean absolute percentage error. In most instances, predictions utilizing P A T S P G exhibited comparable or superior performance to P A T P P G (i.e., SPG Rest ± 12.4 mmHg vs. PPG Rest ± 13.7 mmHg for RSME, and SPG 8% vs. PPG 9% for MAPE). Furthermore, incorporating an additional feature, namely the previous SBP value, resulted in reduced prediction errors for both signals in multiple model configurations (i.e., SPG Rest ± 12.4 mmHg to ±3.7 mmHg for RSME, and SPG Rest 8% to 3% for MAPE). These preliminary tests of SPG underscore the remarkable potential of this novel signal in PAT-based blood pressure predictions. Subsequent studies involving a larger cohort of test subjects and advancements in the SPG acquisition system hold promise for further improving the effectiveness of this newly explored signal in blood pressure monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH) is an underdiagnosed and undertreated ultra-rare disease. We utilized claims data from the Komodo Healthcare Map database to develop a machine-learning model to identify potential HoFH patients. We tokenized patients enrolled in MyRARE (patient support program for those prescribed evinacumab-dgnb in the United States) and linked them with their Komodo claims. A true positive HoFH cohort (n = 331) was formed by including patients from MyRARE and patients with prescriptions for evinacumab-dgnb or lomitapide. The negative cohort (n = 1423) comprised patients with or at risk for cardiovascular disease. We divided the cohort into an 80% training and 20% testing set. Overall, 10,616 candidate features were investigated; 87 were selected due to clinical relevance and importance on prediction performance. Different machine-learning algorithms were explored, with fast interpretable greedy-tree sums selected as the final machine-learning tool. This selection was based on its satisfactory performance and its easily interpretable nature. The model identified four useful features and yielded precision (positive predicted value) of 0.98, recall (sensitivity) of 0.88, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.98, and accuracy of 0.97. The model performed well in identifying HoFH patients in the testing set, providing a useful tool to facilitate HoFH screening and diagnosis via healthcare claims data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presence of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) applications has led to its widespread adoption across diverse domains. AI is making its way into industry, beyond research and academia. Concurrently, the water sector is undergoing a digital transformation. Water utilities in the United States are at different stages in their journey of digital transformation, and the decision makers in water sector, who are non-expert stakeholders in AI applications, need to better understand this technology to make informed decisions. While AI has numerous benefits to offer, there are also many challenges related to data, model development, knowledge integration and ethical concerns that should be considered before implementing it for real world applications. Civil engineering is a licensed profession where critical decision making is involved. Therefore, trust in any decision support technology is critical for its acceptance in real-world applications. Therefore, this research proposes a framework called aiWATERS (Artificial Intelligence for the Water Sector) which can serve as a guide for the water utilities to successfully implement AI in their system. Based on this framework, we conduct pilot interviews and surveys with various small, medium, and large water utilities in the United States (US) to capture their current state of AI implementation and identify the challenges faced by them. The research findings reveal that most of the water utilities in the United States are at an early stage of implementing AI as they face concerns regarding the black box nature, trustworthiness, and sustainability of AI technology in their system. The aiWATERS framework is intended to help the utilities navigate through these issues in their journey of digital transformation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Depression has robust natural language correlates and can increasingly be measured in language using predictive models. However, despite evidence that language use varies as a function of individual demographic features (e.g., age, gender), previous work has not systematically examined whether and how depression's association with language varies by race. We examine how race moderates the relationship between language features (i.e., first-person pronouns and negative emotions) from social media posts and self-reported depression, in a matched sample of Black and White English speakers in the United States. Our findings reveal moderating effects of race: While depression severity predicts I-usage in White individuals, it does not in Black individuals. White individuals use more belongingness and self-deprecation-related negative emotions. Machine learning models trained on similar amounts of data to predict depression severity performed poorly when tested on Black individuals, even when they were trained exclusively using the language of Black individuals. In contrast, analogous models tested on White individuals performed relatively well. Our study reveals surprising race-based differences in the expression of depression in natural language and highlights the need to understand these effects better, especially before language-based models for detecting psychological phenomena are integrated into clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has become crucial to have an early prediction model that provides accurate assurance for users about the financial situation of consumers. Recent studies have focused on predicting corporate bankruptcies and credit defaults, not personal bankruptcies. Due to this situation, the present study fills the literature gap by comparing different machine learning algorithms to predict personal bankruptcy. The main objective of the study is to examine the usefulness of machine learning models such as SVM, random forest, AdaBoost, XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost in forecasting personal bankruptcy. The study relies on two samples of households (learning and testing) from the Survey of Consumer Finances, which was conducted in the United States. Among the models estimated, LightGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost showed the highest effectiveness. The most important variables used in the models are income, refusal to grant credit, delays in the repayment of liabilities, the revolving debt ratio, and the housing debt ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze publications on artificial intelligence (AI) for falls in older people from a bibliometric perspective. Methods: The Web of Science database was searched for titles of English‐language articles containing the words "artificial intelligence," "deep learning," "machine learning," "natural language processing,", "neural artificial network," "fall," "geriatric," "elderly," "aging," "older," and "old age." An R‐based application (Biblioshiny for bibliometrics) and VOSviewer software were used for analysis. Results: Thirty‐seven English articles published between 2018 and 2024 were included. The year 2023 is the year with the most publications with 16 articles. The most productive research field was "Engineering Electrical Electronic" with seven articles. The most productive country was the United States, followed by China. The most common words were "injuries," "people," and "risk factors." Conclusion: Publications on AI and falls in the elderly are both few in number and the number of publications has increased in recent years. Future research should include relevant analyses in scientific databases, such as Scopus and PubMed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past 30 years there have been numerous large-scale and longitudinal psychiatric research efforts to improve our understanding and treatment of mental health conditions. However, despite the huge effort by the research community and considerable funding, we still lack a causal understanding of most mental health disorders. Consequently, the majority of psychiatric diagnosis and treatment still operates at the level of symptomatic experience, rather than measuring or addressing root causes. This results in a trial-and-error approach that is a poor fit to underlying causality with poor clinical outcomes. Here we discuss how a research framework that originates from exploration of causal factors, rather than symptom groupings, applied to large scale multidimensional data can help address some of the current challenges facing mental health research and, in turn, clinical outcomes. Firstly, we describe some of the challenges and complexities underpinning the search for causal drivers of mental health conditions, focusing on current approaches to the assessment and diagnosis of psychiatric disorders, the many-to-many mappings between symptoms and causes, the search for biomarkers of heterogeneous symptom groups, and the multiple, dynamically interacting variables that influence our psychology. Secondly, we put forward a causal-orientated framework in the context of two large-scale datasets arising from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, the largest long-term study of brain development and child health in the United States, and the Global Mind Project which is the largest database in the world of mental health profiles along with life context information from 1.4 million people across the globe. Finally, we describe how analytical and machine learning approaches such as clustering and causal inference can be used on datasets such as these to help elucidate a more causal understanding of mental health conditions to enable diagnostic approaches and preventative solutions that tackle mental health challenges at their root cause. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research is to propose a methodology utilizing machine learning techniques to support medical organizations in effectively managing risks. Specifically, the study aims to connect social media data to identify and assess potential threats, ultimately enabling healthcare management to make informed decisions for their organizations and clients. The research employs machine learning algorithms to analyze user-generated content on social media platforms, generating comprehensive visual representations of various risk categories and their magnitudes. Additionally, the study utilizes data simplification techniques, including categorization, to streamline data processing and enhance overall efficiency. A computational framework is also developed, incorporating closed-form connections for threat assessment and evaluation. The study further empirically analyses the Consumer Value Stores (CVS) established for medical care in the United States. The findings reveal that prevalent threats within the lower quartile of client messages about CVS services include operational, financial, and technological risks. The severity of these risks is distributed among high risk (21.8%), moderate risk (78%), and minimal risk (0.2%). The research also presents several metrics to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework, confirming its effectiveness in effectively identifying and addressing potential threats. This research provides insights that can help healthcare management make informed decisions and foster a safer and more secure environment for their organizations and the people they serve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Breakthrough cancer pain (BTCP) is primarily managed at home and can stem from physical exertion and emotional distress triggers. Beyond these triggers, the impact of ambient environment on pain occurrence and intensity has not been investigated. This study explores the impact of environmental factors on the frequency and severity of breakthrough cancer pain (BTCP) in the home context from the perspective of patients with advanced cancer and their primary family caregiver. Methods: A health monitoring system was deployed in the homes of patient and family caregiver dyads to collect self-reported pain events and contextual environmental data (light, temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, ambient noise.) Correlation analysis examined the relationship between environmental factors with: 1) individually reported pain episodes and 2) overall pain trends in a 24-hour time window. Machine learning models were developed to explore how environmental factors may predict BTCP episodes. Results: Variability in correlation strength between environmental variables and pain reports among dyads was found. Light and noise show moderate association (r = 0.50–0.70) in 66% of total deployments. The strongest correlation for individual pain events involved barometric pressure (r = 0.90); for pain trends over 24-hours the strongest correlations involved humidity (r = 0.84) and barometric pressure (r = 0.83). Machine learning achieved 70% BTCP prediction accuracy. Conclusion: Our study provides insights into the role of ambient environmental factors in BTCP and offers novel opportunities to inform personalized pain management strategies, remotely support patients and their caregivers in self-symptom management. This research provides preliminary evidence of the impact of ambient environmental factors on BTCP in the home setting. We utilized real-world data and correlation analysis to provide an understanding of the relationship between environmental factors and cancer pain which may be helpful to others engaged in similar work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past century, local-scale warming caused by a strengthening urban heat island effect has brought inevitable systematic bias to observational data from surface weather stations located in or near urban areas. In this study, the land use situation around U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations was used as a reference for rural station selection; stations with similar environmental conditions in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) were selected as reference stations using a machine learning method, and then the maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) series, minimum surface air temperature (Tmin) series and mean surface air temperature (Tmean) series of rural stations during 1921–2020 were compared with those for all nearby stations (including both rural and urban stations) to evaluate urbanization effects in the USHCN observation data series of the contiguous United States, which can be regarded as urbanization bias contained in the latest homogenized USHCN observation data. The results showed that the urbanization effect on the Tmean trend of USHCN stations is 0.002 °C dec−1, and the urbanization contribution is 35%, indicating that urbanization around USHCN stations has led to at least one-third of the overall warming recorded at USHCN stations over the last one hundred years. The urbanization effects on Tmax and Tmin trends of USHCN stations are −0.015 °C dec−1 and 0.013 °C dec−1, respectively, and the urbanization contribution for Tmin is 34%. These results have significance for understanding the systematic bias in USHCN temperature data, and they provide a reference for subsequent studies on data correction and climate change monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: There is currently inconclusive evidence regarding the relationship between recidivism and mental illness. This retrospective study aimed to use rigorous machine learning methods to understand the unique predictive utility of mental illness for recidivism in a general population (i.e.; not only those with mental illness) prison sample in the United States. Method: Participants were adult men (n = 322) and women (n = 72) who were recruited from three prisons in the Midwest region of the United States. Three model comparisons using Bayesian correlated t-tests were conducted to understand the incremental predictive utility of mental illness, substance use, and crime and demographic variables for recidivism prediction. Three classification statistical algorithms were considered while evaluating model configurations for the t-tests: elastic net logistic regression (GLMnet), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and random forests (RF). Results: Rates of substance use disorders were particularly high in our sample (86.29%). Mental illness variables and substance use variables did not add predictive utility for recidivism prediction over and above crime and demographic variables. Exploratory analyses comparing the crime and demographic, substance use, and mental illness feature sets to null models found that only the crime and demographics model had an increased likelihood of improving recidivism prediction accuracy. Conclusions: Despite not finding a direct relationship between mental illness and recidivism, treatment of mental illness in incarcerated populations is still essential due to the high rates of mental illnesses, the legal imperative, the possibility of decreasing institutional disciplinary burden, the opportunity to increase the effectiveness of rehabilitation programs in prison, and the potential to improve meaningful outcomes beyond recidivism following release. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) presents a transformative shift in transportation, promising enhanced safety and economic efficiency. However, a fragmented legislative landscape across the United States hampers AV deployment. This fragmentation creates significant challenges for AV manufacturers and stakeholders. This research contributes by employing advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze state data, aiming to identify factors associated with the likelihood of passing AV-friendly legislation, particularly regarding the requirement for human backup drivers. The findings reveal a nuanced interplay of socio-economic, political, demographic, and safety-related factors influencing the nature of AV legislation. Key variables such as democratic electoral college votes per capita, port tons per capita, population density, road fatalities per capita, and transit agency needs significantly impact legislative outcomes. These insights suggest that a combination of political, economic, and safety considerations shape AV legislation, transcending traditional partisan divides. These findings offer a strategic perspective for developing a harmonized regulatory approach, potentially at the federal level, to foster a conducive environment for AV development and deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising severity and frequency of wildfires in recent years in the United States have raised numerous concerns regarding the improvement in wildfire emergency response management and decision-making systems, which require operational high temporal and spatial resolution monitoring capabilities. Satellites are one of the tools that can be used for wildfire monitoring. However, none of the currently available satellite systems provide both high temporal and spatial resolution. For example, GOES-17 geostationary satellite fire products have high temporal (1–5 min) but low spatial resolution (≥2 km), and VIIRS polar orbiter satellite fire products have low temporal (~12 h) but high spatial resolution (375 m). This work aims to leverage currently available satellite data sources, such as GOES and VIIRS, along with deep learning (DL) advances to achieve an operational high-resolution, both spatially and temporarily, wildfire monitoring tool. Specifically, this study considers the problem of increasing the spatial resolution of high temporal but low spatial resolution GOES-17 data products using low temporal but high spatial resolution VIIRS data products. The main idea is using an Autoencoder DL model to learn how to map GOES-17 geostationary low spatial resolution satellite images to VIIRS polar orbiter high spatial resolution satellite images. In this context, several loss functions and DL architectures are implemented and tested to predict both the fire area and the corresponding brightness temperature. These models are trained and tested on wildfire sites from 2019 to 2021 in the western U.S. The results indicate that DL models can improve the spatial resolution of GOES-17 images, leading to images that mimic the spatial resolution of VIIRS images. Combined with GOES-17 higher temporal resolution, the DL model can provide high-resolution near-real-time wildfire monitoring capability as well as semi-continuous wildfire progression maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To better understand the regional changes in summertime temperatures across the conterminous United States (CONUS), we adopt a recently developed machine learning framework that can be used to reveal the timing of emergence of forced climate signals from the noise of internal climate variability. Specifically, we train an artificial neural network (ANN) on seasonally averaged temperatures across the CONUS and then task the ANN to output the year associated with an individual map. In order to correctly identify the year, the ANN must therefore learn time‐evolving patterns of climate change amidst the noise of internal climate variability. The ANNs are first trained and tested on data from large ensembles and then evaluated using observations from a station‐based data set. To understand how the ANN is making its predictions, we leverage a collection of ad hoc feature attribution methods from explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). We find that anthropogenic signals in seasonal mean minimum temperature have emerged by the early 2000s for the CONUS, which occurred earliest in the Eastern United States. While our observational timing of emergence estimates are not as sensitive to the spatial resolution of the training data, we find a notable improvement in ANN skill using a higher resolution climate model, especially for its early twentieth century predictions. Composites of XAI maps reveal that this improvement is linked to temperatures around higher topography. We find that increases in spatial resolution of the ANN training data may yield benefits for machine learning applications in climate science. Plain Language Summary: While temperatures around the world continue to warm due to human‐caused climate change, some areas have observed smaller temperature trends than others. Understanding this regional variability in the rate of warming is important when assessing future projections. One location that has observed less warming is across the United States during their summer season. To evaluate temperature variability in this region using real‐world observations and climate model simulations, we use a statistical method from artificial intelligence called neural networks. The goal of the neural network setup is to learn temperature patterns across the United States and then identify whether climate change effects have exceeded the range of natural variability that has occurred in the past. This is called the timing of emergence (ToE), which is the first year that the effect has clearly appeared. We find that the average United States minimum temperature increase has already emerged in historical records. However, we find no ToE for the average maximum temperature, other than in the Western United States. Another important finding of this study is that by using higher resolution climate model data (i.e., more latitude and longitude points), we find better accuracy in the neural network predictions. Key Points: Forced temperature changes have emerged in observations during summer in the United States as detected by an artificial neural networkIncreasing spatial resolution improves neural network skill for predicting the year of a given summer temperature mapWestern United States land surface climate properties contribute to earlier timing of emergence predictions for the SPEAR climate model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug repurposing is a strategy for discovering new applications of existing drugs for use in various diseases. Despite the use of structured networks in drug research, it is still unclear how drugs interact with one another or with genes. Prostate adenocarcinoma is the second leading cause of cancer mortality in the United States, with an estimated incidence of 288,300 new cases and 34,700 deaths in 2023. In our study, we used integrative information from genes, pathways, and drugs for machine learning methods such as clustering, feature selection, and enrichment pathway analysis. We investigated how drugs affect drugs and how drugs affect genes in human pancreatic cancer cell lines that were derived from bone metastases of grade IV prostate cancer. Finally, we identified significant drug interactions within or between clusters, such as estradiol-rosiglitazone, estradiol-diclofenac, troglitazone-rosiglitazone, celecoxib-rofecoxib, celecoxib-diclofenac, and sodium phenylbutyrate-valproic acid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are a large class of synthetic (man-made) chemicals widely used in consumer products and industrial processes. Thousands of distinct PFAS exist in commerce. The 2019 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Action Plan outlines a multiprogram national research plan to address the challenge of PFAS. One component of this strategy involves the use of systematic evidence map (SEM) approaches to characterize the evidence base for hundreds of PFAS. OBJECTIVE: SEM methods were used to summarize available epidemiological and animal bioassay evidence for a set of ~150 PFAS that were prioritized in 2019 by the U.S. EPA’s Center for Computational Toxicology and Exposure (CCTE) for in vitro toxicity and toxicokinetic assay testing. METHODS: Systematic review methods were used to identify and screen literature using manual review and machine-learning software. The Populations, Exposures, Comparators, and Outcomes (PECO) criteria were kept broad to identify mammalian animal bioassay and epidemiological studies that could inform human hazard identification. A variety of supplemental content was also tracked, including information on in vitro model systems; exposure measurement-only studies in humans; and absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). Animal bioassay and epidemiology studies meeting PECO criteria were summarized with respect to study design, and health system(s) were assessed. Because animal bioassay studies with ≥21-d exposure duration (or reproductive/developmental study design) were most useful to CCTE analyses, these studies underwent study evaluation and detailed data extraction. All data extraction is publicly available online as interactive visuals with downloadable metadata. RESULTS: More than 40,000 studies were identified from scientific databases. Screening processes identified 44 animal and 148 epidemiology studies from the peer-reviewed literature and 95 animal and 50 epidemiology studies from gray literature that met PECO criteria. Epidemiological evidence (available for 15 PFAS) mostly assessed the reproductive, endocrine, developmental, metabolic, cardiovascular, and immune systems. Animal evidence (available for 40 PFAS) commonly assessed effects in the reproductive, developmental, urinary, immunological, and hepatic systems. Overall, 45 PFAS had evidence across animal and epidemiology data streams. DISCUSSION: Many of the ~150 PFAS were data poor. Epidemiological and animal evidence were lacking for most of the PFAS included in our search. By disseminating this information, we hope to facilitate additional assessment work by providing the initial scoping literature survey and identifying key research needs. Future research on data-poor PFAS will help support a more complete understanding of the potential health effects from PFAS exposures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses the convective adjustment time scale to identify the climatological frequency of equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection in different parts of the contiguous United States (CONUS) as modeled by the operational convection-allowing High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast system. We find a qualitatively different climatology in the northern and southern domains separated by the 40°N parallel. The convective adjustment time scale picks up the fact that convection over the northern domains is governed by synoptic flow (leading to equilibrium), while locally forced, nonequilibrium convection dominates over the southern domains. Using a machine learning algorithm, we demonstrate that the convective adjustment time-scale diagnostic provides a sensible classification that agrees with the underlying dynamics of equilibrium and nonequilibrium convection. Furthermore, the convective adjustment time scale can indicate the model quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) quality, as it correctly reflects the higher QPF skill for precipitation under strong synoptic forcing. This diagnostic based on the strength of forcing for convection will be employed in future studies across different parts of CONUS to objectively distinguish different weather situations and explore the potential connection to warm-season precipitation predictability. Significance Statement: An objective classification metric that can delineate a wide range of forecasts into distinct scenarios can serve as a valuable tool. This study represents a pioneering effort in utilizing the convective adjustment time scale to identify the climatological frequency of warm-season precipitation under varying levels of synoptic forcing in different parts of the contiguous United States (CONUS). The results demonstrate that the convective adjustment time scale is a robust metric for categorizing precipitation events and establishing a direct link to their predictability. Overall, this study provides a valuable framework for future studies focused on the CONUS domain, offering guidance on how to employ the convective adjustment time scale to classify weather regimes and explore the influence of environmental conditions on predictability of convection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue of firearm-related injuries, deaths and crime in the United States is of particular relevance. Every year, about 32,000 lives are lost as a result of firearm-related incidents, including selfinflicted injuries. Other 74,000 people suffer non-fatal gunshot wounds. Addressing this multi-faceted problem is possible through a comprehensive and integrated approach that encompasses public health initiatives, law enforcement efforts, and security measures. In the context of solving this problem, the concepts of "community-oriented policing", "problem-oriented policing", "broken windows theory", "smart city social sustainability initiative" (multi-system improvement and meeting the needs of marginalised residents), "feedback methodology", etc. are thoroughly considered. The author proposes the strategic deployment of mini-police stations in areas with a high crime rate as proper centres of police visibility and a deterrent to criminals. To realise this task, it is necessary to integrate the latest approaches to Smart Urban Development with innovative urban planning technologies that would increase the influence of law enforcement agencies in the process of protecting public health and safety in cities. In particular, the article proposes the following for implementation: identifying crime hotspots by means of advanced geographic information systems, applying machine learning algorithms to predict future crime trends, using advanced real-time surveillance technologies and firearms detection systems, applying geospatial analysis to optimise patrol routes, dynamically adjusting patrol routes depending on real-time data analytics, deploying mobile command centres. As a result, law enforcement agencies can effectively communicate to potential criminals that their actions will not go unnoticed. They may achieve significant success in improving the overall quality of life of residents in such areas. Also, they will create safer communities, and reduce the number of incidents involving the use of firearms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values dmax were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]