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This paper empirically investigates the short and the long run impact of public debt on economic growth. We use annual data from both the central and the peripheral countries of the euro area (EA) for the 1961-2013 period and estimate a production function augmented with a debt stock term by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our results suggest different patterns across the EA countries and tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EA member states, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A previous study that investigated the impact of exchange rate changes on the trade balance of Singapore with each of its 13 largest trading partners on bilateral basis found significant long-run effects in four out of 13 cases. In the trade balance between Singapore and Malaysia as a major partner, the real exchange rate had neither short-run nor long-run significant effects. To reduce the aggregation bias, in this paper, we disaggregate the trade flows between the two countries by industry and consider the trade balance of each of the 136 industries that trade between the two countries. We find that the trade balance of 79 industries are affected by exchange rate changes in the short run. However, short-run effects last into the long run in only 19 industries which mostly happen to be small industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil energy consumption is one of the main reasons for the deterioration of environmental pollution and decline in public health. This paper tests for the long-run and short-run relationship among energy consumption, environment pollution and public health using the autoregressive-distributed lag approach in China for the period 1985-2014. The study used energy consumption variables (i.e., the proportion of coal consumption, that of oil and clean energy, abbreviated as PCC, POIL and PCE, respectively), environmental pollution ones (i.e., SO emissions, abbreviated SO, soot and dust emissions,), two health proxies (i.e., the proportion of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases mortality, abbreviated as PCD and PRD, respectively). These variables were selected due to vital importance in China. The overall results indicate that there was co-integration relationship under the study with statistically significantly positive relationship between environmental pollution and energy consumption, public health and environmental pollution in the short and long run. Comparing the long-run and short-run coefficients of energy use variable with respect to SO and soot indicates that the long-run coefficients are the same as the short-run. The long-run coefficients of soot and dust emissions with respect to PCD and PRD, respectively, are higher than the short-run coefficients. This implies that environment pollution level is found to worsen with respect to fossil energy use presently and over time, while public health level descending with reference to soot and dust emission over time in China. The Granger causality results suggested a unidirectional Granger causality between energy use and environment pollution, environment pollution and public health. The results emphasized the importance of energy transformation and sustainable development policies that help to adjust the structure of energy consumption and to improve public health level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A limited number of recent studies have tested the relationship between some of the macroeconomic indicators and banking sector development. Among them, there are only few single developing-country studies, which tried to examine the direct impact of exchange rate volatility on the banking sector with mixed results. This paper examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility and banking sector development in 16 emerging economies over the period of 1980-2011. In this study we employ Pessaran, et al. 2001 bounds testing approach to cointegratoin and developed the short-run and long-run models. Our findings indicate that banking sector development responds significantly to exchange rate volatility in the majority of emerging economies in which 9 out of 16 confirm the short-run effect and 10 out of 16 exhibit the long-run effect. A strongly negative link between exchange rate uncertainty and liquid liabilities is confirmed. We find that the short-run effect effects last into the long-run effect only in 7 emerging economies. Furthermore, assessing the real exchange rate changes in long run confirmed that appreciation impede the banking sector development and eventually financial market development in majority of emerging economies. Meanwhile, our estimated results show the evidence of the significant impact of real income on banking sector development in almost all countries, implying that higher economic growth leads to higher banking activities and more investment. Given several country-specific results, based on their different economic and financial structure, we suggest that it is very crucial to implement appropriate monetary policy for emerging economies to stabilize their economic growth through the banking sector development upon unexpected exchange rate shocks. Under any kind of uncertainty in a country's financial system, chances for enjoying a well-developed banking sector in emerging economies would fade. All negative effects of exchange rate volatility will reduce efficiency of financial market and long-term growth of economy. In order to achieve these economies' long-run economic growth goals, we suggest that, the banking sector development and eventually financial market development should be considered a long-term objective for all emerging economies. In this paper, possible rationales for contrary short-run and long-run effects are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the RUB/USD exchange rate and oil prices. I apply a combination of time-varying cointegration techniques to the data of 1999–2017 to show how this relation evolved dynamically. When the Ruble was not decoupled from oil prices by the efforts of the Central Bank, the pass-through continuously grew over time, both in the long and the short run, substantially increasing during the oil price collapse of 2014. The results further indicate that the Ruble might still be overvalued, implying possible further depreciations, should oil prices remain low. Highlights • This paper investigates the pass-through between the oil price and the RUB/USD. • Various time-series techniques are applied to 19 years of daily and monthly data. • Time-varying cointegration approach suggests that the pass-through changes over time. • The Ruble was often decoupled from oil prices, but it dependence grew over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last 37 years, Nigeria has undergone several stages of financial reforms with different impacts on the economy. This paper analyses the impact of these financial reforms on credit growth in Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. The research work hinges on the theoretical underpinning of McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis on the relevance of financial reforms in a lagging economy. Analysing the data with autoregressive distributed lag error correction representation and bounds testing techniques, we find evidence supporting this hypothesis, and specifically that at higher real interest rates there is increased financial intermediation evidenced by credit growth. Other findings are that in the long-run, financial system deposits, inflation rate and per capita GDP are strong asymmetrical predictors of credit growth and real interest rates (the financial reform indicator), while the short-run relationships are indicator-specific. We further show that a long-run cointegration relationship exists between domestic credit and other covariates and likewise between the real interest rate and its regressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analysis on the integration of prices for imported coniferous pulpwood and sawlogs, and respective domestic stumpage prices in the Finnish wood market. Eight real price series were investigated during 2002–2014 using monthly observations. The bounds testing approach by Pesaran et al. [(2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J Appl Econom. 16: 289–326. doi:10.1002/jae.616], indicates there are long-run relationships between prices of domestic and imported wood. For more detailed information, the vector error correction model (VECM) approach was used. Estimation of a system with all eight prices with interpretable results did not succeed; therefore, we estimated models for prices of sawlogs and for pulpwood separately. For sawlogs, two co-integrating vectors, one for pine and one for spruce, were found. For pulpwood prices, one co-integrating vector was identified. The estimated VECMs confirm the results of bounds testing approach, suggesting that causation in the Finnish wood market runs from domestic prices to prices of imported wood. We conclude that prices of domestic and imported coniferous logs and pulpwood are closely connected. The question of full integration remains open, as border prices and stumpage prices by definition differ, at least, by logging and transportation costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In introducing an absorption approach to the trade balance, Alexander (1952) argued that if wages do not adjust fully to the inflationary effects of devaluation, devaluation can redistribute income from workers to producers in the form of increased profits. Increased profits, in turn, could give incentive to producers to invest more. On the other hand, because devaluation raises the costs of imported inputs, it could lower profits. Depending on the relative strength of these two channels, domestic investment could increase or decrease. By giving greater consideration to the short-run and the long-run effect of currency depreciation on domestic investment, this paper presents empirical results from a time-series model of 50 countries. We find that the devaluation-investment link is mostly a short-run phenomenon. However, in 21 countries in which the short-run effects last into the long run, both views are supported, almost equally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances have been a great support to Pacific island countries (PICs). Aside from providing additions to domestic savings and, hence, real resources, they have been one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings. In the context of falling exports and limited options to diversify their exports, inward remittances have assumed greater importance. This paper examines the nexus between growth and remittances in Samoa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floating exchange rates are said to introduce volatility into the foreign exchange market that could deter trade flows. Previous research employed aggregate import and export trade data and provided mixed results. In this paper we disaggregate the trade data between the U.S. and the emerging economy of India and use the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling to show that in 40 industries that trade between the two countries, exchange rate volatility has negative and positive effects in 40% of industries, in the short run. These short-run effects, however, do not last into the long run in many cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the first paper on the subject was published in 2002, the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH) has constituted one of the most predominant topics in tourism literature. Spain is a leading country in the tourism industry and one where this hypothesis has been tested with several studies confirming the relationship between Spain's tourism development and its economic growth. However, the existing studies for Spain do not take into account recent turbulences such as the Global Financial and Economic Crisis and the Arab Spring uprisings that have shocked tourism markets. This paper re-examines the TLGH for the Spanish case in the light of these events in order to investigate the robustness of the relationship between tourism and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows has been intensively studied by researchers after the adoption of flexible exchange rate system. Different studies have used data from different countries at different aggregation level. In this paper we consider the experiences of 57 Pakistan's exporting to and 52 importing industries from the US over the period 1980-2014. We find that almost 50 % of the industries are affected by exchange rate volatility in the short-run. However, short-run effects last into the long run only in 26 exporting industries and 18 importing industries. Due to such disaggregation we find that all four large exporting and importing industries are affected positively in the long run. The list includes industries coded 656 (made up articles with 32.45 % of exports share), 841 (clothing with 50.7 % exports share), 263 (cotton with 8.64 % import share) and 282 (iron and steel scrap with 2.10 % imports share). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest rate uncertainty has adverse effects on stock market performance. Despite the considerable studies on the relationship between interest rate and stock market return, the relationship between interest rate volatility and stock market development still is enigma. This paper investigates the effect of interest rate uncertainty on stock market development. We examine the long-run and short-run relationship between these variables using Pesaran et al (2001) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling for 12 emerging economies over the period 1980-2011. This methodology has two main advantages over other cointegration methods which have made it unique: first there is no need to do pre-unit root resting, which is an essential requirement in other methods, and second, we are able to distinguish short -run effects from its long- run effect. Diagnostic statistics applied in this study indicate that our models are stable, well specified and normally distributed residual free of autocorrelation. The estimated results here show a significant short-run effect of interest rate uncertainty on stock market developing in all of 12 emerging economies under study. Furthermore, our results indicate that in 9 out of 12 countries the short-run effects have been seen in the long-run as well, and the cointegration relationship is confirmed in almost all of the models by either the F-test results or negative sign of error correction term. Also, the long run real income estimated elasticity is significantly positive in all countries (except for Brazil, Chile and Thailand) which would be a major long-run factor affecting stock market development in most of emerging economies in this study. Moreover, we found a mixed long- run effect of interest rate on stock market development. The results obtained in this paper suggest that emerging economies need to be cautious in implementing financial market and interest rate policies. A well-developed financial system improves capital formation and the efficiency of resource allocation, enhancing investment, and therefore economic growth. Interest rate uncertainty significantly affects stock market development. Therefore, a sound monetary policy creates a safer investment environment and stock market development. The role of stock market development towards achieving economic growth is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since advent of current float in 1973, the literature on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows has grown so rapidly that most countries have their own literature and Singapore as our country of concern is no exception. Previous studies have investigated the response of aggregate trade flows of Singapore with the rest of the world to exchange rate volatility and have found mostly insignificant link. In this paper we argue that they all suffer from aggregation bias and concentrate on trade flows between Singapore and her major partner, Malaysia. After disaggregating their trade flows by commodity we find that exchange rate volatility has significant short-run effects in 70 out of 156 exporting industries and in 73 out of 155 importing industries. However, short-run effects last into the long run only in 46 exporting and 36 importing industries. We also find that less than 50% of Singapore's industries were affected by the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since advent of the current float, like many other currencies the Turkish lira has followed a volatile path. Several previous studies have assessed the impact of this volatility on Turkish exports and imports using aggregate trade flows of Turkey. Not much significant effects are found. In this paper, we use disaggregated Turkish imports and exports of 61 industries that trade with the rest of the world and find that exchange rate volatility has short-run significant impact on the imports of 39 industries and exports of 23 industries. The short-run effects last into the long run in almost half of the industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of financial market development on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Latin American countries. Financial market development and FDI are two important sources of efficient economic resource allocation in the region. We use banking sector and stock market indicators to capture financial market development. By giving greater consideration to the short-run and long-run effects of financial market development on FDI, this paper presents empirical results from a time series model of 14 Latin American countries. We find financial market development link is both short-run and long-run phenomena in majority of countries. Furthermore, our result of the causality test shows that link between FDI and banking sector development is uni-directional and the link between FDI and stock market development is bi-directional. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the introduction of the current system of floating exchange-rate regimes, the empirical literature on its implications has grown, with various studies exploring the effects of exchange-rate volatility using different data selection and modeling techniques. Most of these results have been mixed, finding that risk can have positive, negative, or insignificant effects on export and import flows. This study extends the empirical literature by focusing on the role of exchange-rate volatility on trade between the USA and Indonesia. We use disaggregated trade data by commodity and investigate 108 US export industries to Indonesia and 32 US import industries. Our results show that more than half of export and import industries are affected by real exchange-rate volatility in the short run. However, only a third of the export and import industries register long-run effects. We find that, for large industries, exports and imports behave similarly, but that far more small Indonesian exporters see their trade reduced by increased risk. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

As far as the impact of devaluation on domestic production is concerned, African countries have not received much attention in the literature. One study that used panel data arrived at a general conclusion that devaluations are contractionary in Africa. In this paper, we consider the experience of 22 African countries with devaluation and use time series data to show that devaluations are indeed expansionary in eight countries and contractionary in five countries. In the remaining countries, they have no effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to fight inflation or recession, central banks manipulate the money supply. The speed with which a change in money supply could affect price level and the level of production differs from one country to another, depending on rigidities. The main purpose of this paper is to show that the adjustment speed among the mentioned macro variables is higher in countries that are more open. Using the bounds-testing approach, a relatively new approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling, we estimate the speed of adjustment in the money market in 28 developing countries. A simple cross-sectional model is utilized in which the measure of adjustment speed is related to three different measures of openness. Regardless of the measure used, a significant and positive relationship exists between adjustment speed and the measure of openness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the international capital mobility in North Asia (South Korea and Taiwan), South Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand) and India. In particular, the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle, which states domestic investment and savings are highly and positively correlated, was examined for cointegration using an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure. The results did not show a positive correlation between savings and investment. There was essentially no relationship at level between savings and investment in all eight cases. Thirteen out of 16 structural break tests or 81.25% indicate no structural breaks. The analysis concluded with certain limitations that there is high capital mobility in the economies under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that have estimated the money demand function in Middle Eastern countries employed either traditional estimation techniques or recently popularized cointegration techniques. The first group suffers from spurious regression problems; the second group interprets cointegration as a sign of stability of the estimated parameters. Without a comprehensive study in the literature about the Middle East, this paper incorporates the cumulative sum and cumulative sum squared tests into cointegration analysis and shows that in the majority of the countries in the sample, the demand for money (M2) is stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest rate changes by central banks are a strong monetary policy tool that has a significant impact on the performance of the real economy via various channels. Despite extensive theoretical and empirical studies in this area, the current literature lacks a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy. This study explores the link between interest rate volatility and the shadow economy for 38 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) member countries over the period 1991–2021 using both linear and non‐linear ARDL models. The use of the non‐linear ARDL specification will allow for the possibility of an asymmetric effect of interest rate volatility on the shadow economy. In addition to the examination of the potential asymmetric effects, we also discuss the ramifications for policymakers with respect to monetary and financial policies while considering each country's specific economic structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since April 2014 to March 2015, the European Central Bank expansionary monetary policy instigates a huge depreciation of the euro in terms of dollar. According to the mainstream monetary theory, these dynamics should make the exports cheaper and at the same time make the imports more expensive. Has real depreciation of the euro helped in the improvement of European countries’ trade balances? Following the main methodologies in the recent literature, our study analyses the effects of this depreciation both for Italy and Germany towards the US. We use industry-level data at monthly frequency. The results are different from each bilateral relationship. We find that 11 industries register a long-run improvement (8 for Italy and 3 for Germany). The J-curve effect is proven just in six cases, always for Italy. The inverted J-curve effect is proven in eight cases, four for Germany, and four for Italy. These results seem to be an indirect demonstration of the structural asymmetries between German and Italian economies: German economic system is more able to be competitive with a strong currency, than Italy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines empirically the concept of fiscal stability for Barbados and Jamaica over the period 1973-2010. Fiscal stability is defined within an extended public choice model of government expenditure attributed to Baumol (1967) and Spann (1977) by the incorporation of a government revenue equation. A tax price variable is used to test Kaldor's cobweb theorem in measuring fiscal stability that is estimated using the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results suggest fiscal stability for Barbados in contrast to Jamaica over the long-run. In the short-run, fiscal stability holds for Barbados but is inconclusive for Jamaica. The different results maybe reflecting a greater unbalanced productivity gap in the Jamaica economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances are expected to affect domestic investment, among others, through induced rise in savings and easing of financial constraints. However, the empirical evidence on the relationship between the two variables is rather thin, especially in the context of Africa. This study investigates the short-run and long-run effects of remittances on domestic investment in four African countries using the bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis. The findings of the study indicate that whether remittances spur domestic capital formation varies by country and the time horizon considered, highlighting, among others, the importance of identifying the factors that tend to condition their relationship. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial integration for emerging economies should be seen as a long-term objective. In this paper, we examine stock market integration among five selected emerging stock markets (Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia and Turkey) and developed markets of the US, UK and Germany. The bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling are used on monthly data from January 2001 to December 2014 to determine the short-run and long-run relationship between emerging stock market returns and the returns of the developed stock markets. The results show evidence of the existence of short-run integration among stock markets in emerging countries and the developed markets. However, the long-run coefficients for stock market returns in all emerging countries show a significant relationship only with Germany stock market return. The empirical findings in this study have important implications for academicians, international investors, and policymakers in emerging markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent instability in Egypt has brought attention to the role of risk in this important economy. At the same time, there is room in the ever-expanding literature on the link between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, in Egypt. This study examines 36 separate export and import industries vis-à-vis the United States, from 1994 to 2007. An application of cointegration analysis and error-correction modeling finds evidence of long-run relationships for many import and export industries, with exports increasing due to higher risk in a large proportion of cases. Although most industries, particularly in imports, are nevertheless unaffected, our results differ from other studies in the literature. An analysis of our industry-level results shows that chemical imports, and exports of industries with large trade shares, are more likely to increase than are other products or imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One implication of currency substitution is that the exchange rate could serve as another determinant of the demand for money. Indeed, many studies have justified this empirically for the majority of countries. If the exchange rate serves as a determinant of the demand for money, exchange rate volatility could also influence money demand. By using annual data from 15 less developed countries and the bounds testing approach, we show that exchange rate volatility has short-run effects on the demand for real M2 monetary aggregate in LDCs. However, in most countries, short-run effects are not sustained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are limited number of studies which have tried to test the J-Curve phenomenon for Singapore either using aggregate trade data between Singapore and rest of the world or bilateral trade data between Singapore and one or two of her trading partners. These studies have provided mixed results. In this article, we revisit the issue and consider the short-run and long-run effects of real exchange rate depreciation of Singapore dollar on her trade balance with each of her 13 main trading partners. Using quarterly data over the period 1973I-2009IV and bounds testing method to cointegration and error-correction modelling we find support for the J-Curve in four of 13 cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that analyzed income inequality mostly concentrated on identifying microeconomic determinants such as income, social factors (family structure, employment, or age distribution), or factor endowments; or such macroeconomic determinants as the exchange rate, economic openness or the black market premium. These studies also relied upon cross-section estimates in their assessments. In this paper, we introduce the "saving-investment" gap, which measures whether the need for financing is unmet, as another determinant of income inequality. We then apply time-series techniques in a study of 16 countries. Using the "bounds testing" cointegration method, in which variables in a given model can be stationary, non-stationary, or a combination of the two, we find varying results across countries. While these results highlight the need for further country-specific research, they indicate the benefits that external financing can provide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the bounds testing approach to cointegration, this paper examines empirically the relationship between domestic credit and external account developments in Barbados in the period 1993-2007 with quarterly observations. A simple model that links the current account balance to domestic credit, along with a number of standard control variables is utilised. The results suggest that domestic credit has a significant negative impact on the external current account, in both the short and long run situations, giving credence to the hypothesis that balance of payment developments in Barbados may be considered primarily a monetary phenomenon. As such, controlling aggregate demand measures to reduce excessive credit creation remains an important strategy to ensure stability in the country's balance of payments accounts over the short to medium term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the long-run determinants of savings rates for seven member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union over the period 1970-2006. We use the bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. This methodology has several advantages with respect to other cointegration tests. The long-run determinants of savings rate vary across countries. Results reveal that the financial liberalization process undertaken at the end of 1989 and the existing monetary policy have not been effective to increase the domestic savings rates within the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies that investigated the short-run (J-curve) and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance of Pakistan used aggregate trade data between Pakistan and the rest of the world and provided no evidence of any significant impact. We wonder whether lack of the relation is due to aggregation bias. In this paper, therefore, we go one step further by employing disaggregated data at bilateral level between Pakistan and her 13 major trading partners to determine if we can discover partners whose trade balances react to changes in the real bilateral exchange rate. The results from bounds testing approach are still inconclusive and show that only in half of the cases the real bilateral exchange rate plays a role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the aggregate export demand behaviour in Indonesia with annual data for the period 1963–2005. Both the Pesaran bounds testing and the Johansen cointegration tests results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship between real exports, world income and the relative export prices in Indonesia. The long-run income elasticity of the demand for Indonesia's exports is significantly greater than one and the long-run relative export price elasticity of the demand for its exports is significantly lower than one. The recursive and rolling regressions and the Hansen–Johansen stability test results suggest that the export demand function for Indonesia has undergone a significant structural change since the late-1990s, which is reflected in the decrease of the income elasticity, and an increase in the relative export price elasticity, of demand for Indonesian exports. These results explain the relatively slow growth of Indonesian exports since 2000 that has slowed the country's economic recovery from the financial crises of 1997–1998. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In 1950 Orcutt conjectured that a country's trade flows could respond to a change in exchange rate quicker than they do to a change in relative prices. Previous research that supported Orcutt's hypothesis employed non-stationary data rendering the results to suffer from spurious regression problem. When we account for stationarity of the data by using cointegration and error-correction modeling, no strong evidence is found in support of the Orcutt's hypothesis. The findings in this paper for developing countries are similar to those found for developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research that has tried to identify the determinants of income inequality has used cross-sectional data, mostly due to a lack of time-series data for individual countries. Any result using cross-sectional data is usually generalized by ignoring country-specific characteristics. Now that time-series data are available for certain countries, we revisit the Kuznets ‘inverted-U’ hypothesis by applying cointegration analysis to annual time-series data from 16 countries. We also investigate the effect of openness on income inequality. We find limited support for Kuznets's hypothesis, and that the effect of both income and openness varies by country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different authors have tried to estimate the demand for money in different countries. A common theme of almost all studies since 1987 is the application of cointegration technique. The demand for money in China is no exception and has received some attention by researchers. However, finding of cointegration has been interpreted as a sign of constancy of parameter estimates. In this paper we employ CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests in conjunction with cointegration analysis to show that both M1 and M2 are cointegrated with their determinants. The results of stability tests reveal that while M1 money demand in China is stable, there is some doubt about stability of M2 money demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to assess the macroeconomic condition of the four new prospective members, which are Turkey, Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania, depending on four Maastricht Convergence Criteria in order to determine which candidate is ready to join EMU. We use cointegration approach to analyze cointegrating relations among inflation rates, interest rate, deficit-to-GDP, and debt-to-GDP ratios of four candidates in relation to Germany. Bounds Testing and Engle-Granger Cointegration Approach are applied to all criteria to test convergence. None of the convergence criteria for Turkey and Romania in relation to Germany has been achieved. On the other hand, there is evidence of nominal convergence between Croatia and Germany in terms of deficit-to-GDP ratio and interest rates. Also, there is cointegration between deficit-to-GDP ratio of Bulgaria and that of Germany. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The causality relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has been one of the most commonly investigated topics over the last decades. Energy is considered a key link for growth in biophysical models. This study, based on annual time series data over the period from 1976 to 2013 in Turkey, analyzed the dynamic causality relationships between energy consumption and growth using error correction model and bounds testing with an autoregressive distributed lag approach. The overall results indicate that energy and growth are not neutral with respect to each other and support the existence of short- and long-run one-way positive causality links from energy consumption to growth. Energy consumption, also increasing labor and capital in production process, promote economic growth, and reduction in these production factors adversely affects the Turkish economy. Therefore, these empirical results support that the growth hypothesis is valid for Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A few studies that have attempted to estimate the short-run (J-curve) and long-run impact of exchange rate depreciation on Pakistan’s trade balance are either based on aggregate trade data between Pakistan and the rest of the world or between Pakistan and her bilateral trading partners. The findings are mixed at best. Considering the trade balance between Pakistan and the US, as one of its major partners, no significant effects have been discovered. Suspecting that the trade flows between the two countries could suffer from another aggregation bias, we disaggregate their trade flows by commodity and consider the trade balance of 45 industries that trade between the two countries. We find significant short-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance of 17 industries. The short-run effects last into the long run in 15 cases. The largest industry that account for more than 10% of the trade seems to benefit from real depreciation in the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This study aims at investigating whether education and poverty have a causal effect on terrorist attacks in Turkey from 1980 to 2006. The ARDL bounds testing procedure and Granger-causality analysis within vector error-correction models (VECM) are used. Results of the ARDL bounds testing procedure suggest the rejection of the null hypothesis of no long-run relationship in the where education is the long-run forcing variable for terrorist attacks. The evidence obtained from the Granger-causality analysis within VECM confirms the findings from the ARDL bounds test that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these two series. Results suggest no evidence of long-run relationship between terrorist attacks and poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]