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The recent COVID-19 health crisis determined a global economic crisis and numerous economic consequences at different levels. In these conditions, the study of the economic impact of the health crisis became a necessity. Therefore, the present paper focuses on the study of the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on international economic relations, using the example of two countries. Based on the regression methodology it was measured the impact of the COVID-19 burden on the international trade flows of two European countries, namely Romania and Hungary. The results of the research illustrated that the COVID-19 burden had an effect on international trade in the two countries. However, the influences differed in the two countries, with the exports flows being more affected than imports in both countries and with exports in Hungary being more affected that those of Romania. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Proceedings of the Faculty of Economics in East Sarajevo / Zbornik Radova Ekonomskog Fakulteta u Istočnom Sarajevu is the property of University of East Sarajevo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In May 2012, with tensions over Huangyan Island taking an increasingly sour turn, China released a document to strengthen inspection and quarantine of fruits imported from the Philippines. To many, this retaliation implied that the former launched economic sanctions against the latter over the growing conflict. As such, this paper takes that tension as a quasi‐natural experiment to examine the impact of deteriorating political relations on trade. We employ difference‐in‐difference to conduct an empirical investigation by using the monthly data of the Philippines' fruit export. The estimation results show that after the implementation of the document, in comparison with other export destination countries, Philippine banana and pineapple exports to China decreased by 42% and 88%, respectively. However, the sanction effects weakened over time. Extended analyses also find that the Philippines evaded the sanctions to some extent by trans‐shipping through third countries, transferring exports to other countries, and deeply processing fruits. In conclusion, the sanctions were not as effective as expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the impacts of trade liberalization policy on the sophistication level of Vietnam's exports from 2001 to 2010. The export sophistication measure proposed by Hausmann and co-workers is computed by using the disaggregated trade data. By descriptive analysis, this indicator reveals that Vietnam's export structure was similar to that of Indonesia and the Philippines and then became much more similar to Thailand after Vietnam's accession to World Trade Organization (WTO). In addition, this paper econometrically analyzes the effects of trade liberalization on Vietnam's industry-level export sophistication with the additional consideration of its WTO accession in 2007. This paper suggests that tariff reductions have a positive impact on the sophistication level of Vietnam's industry exports. Trade liberalization has a stronger impact on the nonmanufacturing sectors than on manufacturing sectors. However, the results also imply that the WTO membership does not have any additional effects on Vietnam's industry export sophistication. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The author comments on the paper "Markets Matter: The Potential of Intra-Regional Trade in ASEAN and Its Implications for Asian Regionalism" by Lurong Chen, Philippe De Lombaerde and Ludo Cuyvers. She investigates the potential for further deepening the economic integration in the region. She also assesses the potential of ASEAN to export more to the regional market and the importance of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to ASEAN.

Support and promotion of export are key elements of sustainable development, export representing at the moment growth domestic main engine. The objectives of the paper were to analyze the activities of foreign trade and economic cooperation, and the support for the domestic economic development and harmonious integration of Romania into the complex system of international relations. The methods used in this paper were: comparative analysis, bibliographic study and processing of the statistical data from the National Statistics Institute in order to generate some proposals for developing a future strategy for promoting Romanian food products on foreign markets. The main results refer to the situation of agriculture in recent years, the situation of export and import of agricultural products. The main conclusion is that the rising of prices represents an opportunity for countries with strong agricultural sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The general methodology in this paper has been to estimate the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) in the case of U.S. and China. Also, with the help of a set of semi-log growth equations, the trends in exports and RCA are studied. China's export performance is much better than that of US. In terms of RCA, the US has not shown any significant growth in RCA of industrial and high technology exports, while US has gained in intermediate exports. China has seen increased growth rate in RCA of high technology exports, where US has lost the advantage. The dynamics of trade patterns between countries is amply justified through their respective long term growth in comparative advantage. Since the two countries' trade patterns have been evolving according to their respective RCA, there seems to be little justification for either country to escalate the trade war by imposing trade restrictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates employment effects of falling exports from China to the EU and US during the great trade collapse of 2008-9. The paper uses fixed multiplier analysis to address employment effects resulting from input-output production linkages between trade and employment as well as from associated changes in household income and expenditures. Main findings are that substantial negative employment effects resulted in China from these linkages; that a large share of these employment effects were income-induced; and that industries in which women workers were disproportionately represented were harder hit through these linkages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the export competitiveness of the manufacturing sector in Singapore. More specifically, we examine how the existence of import content of exports, productivity gains, and profit margins affect the competitiveness of Singapore’s manufacturing exports. Using proxies such as price of exports, price of imports, unit business costs, and net operating surplus over manufacturing output, we analyze our results empirically and seek to show the significance of these variables in affecting the export competitiveness in the unique case of Singapore. As price of exports and price of imports are both expressed in Singapore dollars (SGD) and this captures the exchange rate, we can assess the impact of a stronger SGD on the export competitiveness of Singapore’s manufacturing sector. Traditional economic notions according to Mundell–Fleming model have predominantly assumed that the appreciation of local currency would stimulate imports and harm exports, vice versa. However, in the case of Singapore where there is a high import content in exports, our paper reveals that exports are not adversely affected by an appreciation of SGD. This is attributed to the direct causal relationship between import prices and export prices that helps to minimize the effects of a higher cost of export production brought about by appreciation, with lower import costs. Furthermore, the impacts of productivity growth and profit margins on export competitiveness are very small, supporting the notion that Singapore exporters are price-takers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to provide an overview of the position of the developing countries in the international trade system and discussion about perspectives of their trade development. The main hypothesis of the paper is that developing countries as a group have made a breakthrough in the world trade in the past two decades, but genuine improvement has been made and enjoyed by several large developing countries, primarily China. The paper elaborates mostly by use of methods of analysis and synthesis, based on the extensive processing of trade data, as well as relevant literature. In this context, the paper provides evidence about trade liberalisation of the developing countries since 1980s to the present time, intense export growth of the developing countries over the period, as well as change of the trade structure of the developing countries with developed countries, evident through rising share of the medium and high skills and technology based products. In purpose of provision of more realistic assessment of the position of the developing countries in the international trade system, special attention has been put on China's trade performances, given the rapid increase of China's share in the world trade from less than 1 per cent in 1980 to over 10 per cent in 2011. The major findings of the paper confirm that improvement of the overall position of the developing countries in the international trade system has mainly resulted from the improvement of the trade position of several countries, primarily China. The paper also provides overview on WTO simulations about international trade prospects up to 2035, which confirm further dependence on the trade position of the developing countries as a group from China's trade accomplishments. In this perspective, the paper argues that there is a need for differentiated treatment and provision of extra flexibilities for the other developing countries in purpose of achieving as genuine improvement in their trade position. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article gives opinion on the paper "Implications of the Global Financial Crisis on Korea's Trade," by Sangyeon Hwang Hyejoon Im. The paper examines the impact of the global financial crisis on the trade of Korea through five channels, including world demand and exchange rate. Also stressed is the effect of the credit-market turmoil on Korean exports. It notes a possible link between the decline in world demand and the global deleveraging in the financial sector.

This paper attempts to shed new light on further deepening the economic integration process in Southeast Asia using a quantitative assessment of the potential for further developing intra-regional trade. It is evident that ASEAN's export space is expanding faster than the world average and that there is still room for ASEAN countries to further develop the role of their intra-regional trade. To improve its export potential, ASEAN should liberalize trade not only intra-regionally but also globally. It could be in ASEAN's interest to accelerate the pace of regional integration under frameworks that involve the participation of non-ASEAN countries, especially an ASEAN Framework for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horticultural exports are among the key drivers of economic development in Kenya. Their production either complements that of the Northern Hemisphere on a seasonal basis or provides more cost effective supply of vegetables, flowers and fruits throughout the year. The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors that determine horticultural exports of Kenya using a gravity model analysis. The paper reviews both the theoretical development and empirical application of the gravity model. The research findings will provide more knowledge on the potential ways in which the gravity model can be applied in geographical studies. The results of the study may also assist in trade policy formulation in order ensure that the country's horticultural export potential is fully exploited to promote national development. The study analysed data on the value of horticultural exports to the top 10 major trading partners with Kenya. These countries included the UK, and selected members of the European Union. The GDP and population of the two countries and the distance between their capital cities were used in the gravity model analysis. The colonial ties and use of common language were used as dummy variables in the model. Kenya was a former colony of the UK and both countries share a common language. The results reveal that the values of Kenya's horticultural exports are higher in the European Union. Great Britain's share of the horticultural exports by value is also significant. Therefore, Kenya should explore ways of improving its trade relations with the countries concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the role and significance of bilateral trade flows between U.S. and India utilizing historical quarterly time series data for 50 years. The results indicate strong and rising trade linkages between the two countries in terms of exports, imports, and trade volume along with a rising trade imbalance for the U.S. specially since the liberalization of the Indian economy in the mid-eighties and early nineties. The paper identified top 15 U.S. export and import products which are based on comparative advantage and found U.S. has strong advantage in High skill- and technology-intensive products but disadvantage in low skill and semi-skill intensive products. The paper also conducted intra-industry trade using Grubel-Lloyd index for the top products and found limited but growing intra-industry trade. Further, the paper found that the U.S. trade penetration into India's import market has declined over the years, but still remains at a reasonably higher rate than India's trade penetration in the U.S. import market. On the other hand, India's trade penetration in the U.S. market shows a U-shape pattern in that the degree of penetration has declined and then started to increase since year 2000. In terms of bilateral trade significance in terms of exports to each other relative to their respective exports to the world, the paper finds that the Indian market is less important for the U.S. as an export destination than the U.S. market for India. The results obtained shed important insights into the bilateral trade between the two countries and is expected to be helpful in formulating trade policies and strategies for promoting mutual gains from trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for about 80% of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012-2016 and 2003-2007. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pundits and scholars have long debated the effectiveness of foreign aid: does it lead to economic growth or is it simply throwing money 'down the rat hole'? This paper re-invigorates the debate by examining the question through a new lens. Rather than examining the effectiveness of general foreign aid on economic growth, this paper tests the impact of targeted foreign aid on a narrower economic activity. Specifically, this paper investigates the impact of United States trade capacity building aid. This targeted aid aims to increase recipient countries' exporting capacity, which may lead to growth, rather than directly increasing growth. If trade capacity building assistance is universally effective, one would expect to see increases in recipient-country exports to both the US and the rest of the world. If trade capacity building is selectively effective, recipient-country exports should increase only to the US. If trade capacity building is ineffective, one would expect no impact on recipient-country exports. This paper finds substantial support that US trade capacity building is selectively effective. US trade capacity building tends to increase recipient-country exports to the United States, but not to the rest of the world. Although the US results may not be generalizable to other donors, this approach suggests an easily expandable research program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With China's accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization's most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this ‘outsider’ status has been affecting Russia's export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for 1995–2002, we find that Russian exports to WTO members have fallen short of the model's predictions. The paper discusses possible explanations of this result, including Russia's exclusion from various WTO procedures, although own-export restrictions could have a similar effect. The model points to Russia's further trade reorientation toward WTO members after a putative accession. Our results also prompt some ideas that may clarify the recent empirical controversy over the WTO's overall role in promoting trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China’s agri-food exports to Germany caused by China’s accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. Design/methodology/approach – The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series. Then time series and regression models are used to compare differences of trade relationship before and after the detected change points. The methods can be employed in any economic series and work well in practice. Findings – The results indicate that structural breaks in 2002 and 2009 are caused by China’s accession to WTO and the financial crisis. Time series and regression models show that the development of China’s exports to Germany in agri-food products has different features in different sub-periods. Before 1999, there is no significant relationship between China’s exports to Germany and Germany’s imports from the world. Between 2002 and 2008 the former depends on the latter very strongly, and China’s exports to Germany developed quickly and stably. It decreased, however suddenly in 2009, caused by the great reduction of Germany’s imports from the world in that year. But China’s market share in Germany still had a small gain. Analysis of two categories in agri-food trade also leads to similar conclusions. Comparing the two events we see rather different patterns even if they both indicate structural breaks in the development of China’s agri-food exports to Germany. Originality/value – This paper partly originally proposes two statistical algorithms for detecting different kinds of structural breaks in the middle part and at the end of a short-time series, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decision of the United Kingdom (UK) to leave the European Union (EU) is unprecedented, especially considering the recent trend in the global economy toward economic integration. There is a multitude of research concerning the implications of economic integration; however, research in the field of disintegration is scarce. Brexit serves as an interesting case study to investigate the effects of economic disintegration. The implications for trade are especially fascinating as trade liberalization is one of the most important benefits of economic integration. Existing studies focus mainly on Brexit's impact on the UK's exports and imports, while less attention has been paid to Brexit's effects on the trade of other countries. The main objective of our research is to estimate Brexit's influence on Polish exports. We present several possible scenarios of future trade relations between the UK and the EU and assume that, at least in the nearest-future post-Brexit scenario, trade under the World Trade Organization rules is most likely. This will result in the imposition of tariffs on trade between the UK and the EU members, including Poland. In our research, we used the real exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the British pound as a proxy for the changes in price competitiveness of Polish exports due to the imposition of tariffs. We find that in the first year after Brexit, the dynamics of Polish exports to the UK will decrease due to the imposition of customs duties by 1.3 percentage points (pp) and by 0.1 pp when it comes to total Polish exports. This paper contributes to the discussion on the effects of disintegration on trade. We propose a new method for assessing changes in trade volume due to increase of trade barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the relative sophistication of the Korean export products in manufacturing industry both across and within products between 1989 and 2012 using the very detailed United States import data. I first compare Korea's export performance in the US market in terms of market share, product penetration and export similarity to those of its rival countries. Next, I propose far more extensive estimates of difference in export quality between Korea and its trading rivals. The estimated quality difference reveals substantial heterogeneity across products and countries. In particular, this paper shows that the current greatest competitor of Korea is still Japan in the US market, but China is steadily climbing up the quality ladder and is chasing after Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper quantifies the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' (ASEAN) trade linkages with other regional blocs and countries to determine the characteristics of ASEAN's inter- and intra-regional trade. The competitiveness of member countries and that of rival countries such as China, Japan and Korea are then evaluated at the industry level. Finally, ASEAN member countries' gross exports in the main exporting industries are decomposed to identify the global value chain features of ASEAN's trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global value chains (GVCs) require new methods for evaluating interconnections among countries, which can no longer be accurately appraised by standard bilateral gross trade flows. This paper uses tools of network analysis to examine the evolution of value-added trade from 1995 to 2011. GVCs are very centralised and asymmetric networks, with a few large economies acting as hubs, which exposes them to the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. As GVCs expanded, the networks of foreign value added in exports became denser, more complex and intensively connected. The regional dimension of GVCs is still dominant but is progressively giving place to a more global network. Networks of foreign value added in goods exports outpace those of services exports. However, foreign inputs of services are important for exports of both goods and services. There is a striking rise of China as a supplier of value added, while Germany and the United States maintain a central role in GVCs over the whole period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spectacular scale and speed of China's domestic renewable energy capacity development and technology catch-up has in recent years been followed by the 'go out' of Chinese clean energy technology firms seeking new markets and opportunities in sub- Saharan Africa. This paper explores the growing involvement of China in the development and transfer of renewable energy technologies in Africa and examines the key drivers and obstacles shaping Chinese renewable energy investments and exports. Far from there being some kind of grand or harmonious strategy directed by a single monolithic state, we argue that fragmented and decentralised state apparatuses and quasi-market actors in China are increasingly pursuing their own independent interests and agendas around renewable energy in Africa in ways often marked by conflict, inconsistency and incoherence. Moving beyond the state-centric analysis common in much of the research on contemporary China-Africa relations, we examine the motivations of a range of non-state and quasi-state actors, as well their different perceptions and constructions of risk, policy environments and political stability in recipient countries. The paper explores the case study example of South Africa, where Chinese firms have become increasingly significant in the diffusion of renewable energy technology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand. Bilateral trade between China and Latin America has grown very quickly in the past decade. As a consequence, economic relationships with Latin America intensified tremendously, as growing demand for resources drove China into relatively unexplored frontiers.Design/methodology/approach The Index measures the relative exposure of Latin American exporters to shifts in demand from China and is scaled from 0 to 1 (the higher the score, the more exposed an exporter is to disruptions of trade with China). The authors undertook the analysis using six-digit trade figures from the United Nations COMTRADE database (Harmonized System 2007 nomenclature) to ensure granularity and consistency and contrasted their results across two points in time, 2008 and 2014. The analysis was very comprehensive, covering the products that accounted for 80 per cent or more of all exports to China in 2014, for all countries in Latin America and the Caribbean.Findings According to our estimates, dependency on China increased overboard across Latin America for all countries and all sectors between 2008 and 2014. Absolute dependency levels were highest in Costa Rica, Colombia, Uruguay, Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, Peru, Chile, Guyana and Argentina. Of these, the largest exporters to China, namely, Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Colombia and Venezuela, featured high dependencies concentrated around just four commodities: soy in the form of soybeans and soybean oil; crude oil; copper in the form of copper ore, copper cathodes and unrefined copper; and iron ore. These four commodities accounted for 80 per cent of the regions’ total exports to China.Originality/value This is one of few studies that look into Latin America’s commodity export dependency on China at such granular level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü - Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi is the property of Karadeniz Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose – The Marshall-Lerner (M-L) condition, which stipulates that a devaluation or depreciation of its currency will improve a country's trade balance only if the sum of the absolute values of a country's import and export price elasticities are greater than one, is a fundamental tenet of international economics. The purpose of this study is to survey the literature that has tested the M-L condition, examining in particular whether previous studies' results are statistically significant. The authors then conduct their own estimation of 29 countries' trade elasticities, over the past few decades. Design/methodology/approach – While mostly a review paper, the paper also applies statistical techniques in two ways. First, the authors use t-tests on previously-published statistical results to see if the sums of their elasticities are significantly greater than one. The authors also apply the recently developed ARDL cointegration method, which has a number of attractive statistical properties, to estimate 29 countries' long-run import and export elasticities and test the M-L condition using recent data. Findings – The authors re-estimation using previous studies' coefficients and standard errors shows that, although the point estimates in many studies suggest that the M-L condition is met, it really is not met in half of the cases. This lack of evidence is confirmed with the authors' own empirical tests. Research limitations/implications – Not only does this paper collect the relevant literature in a way that will assist future researchers on the topic, these findings suggest that support for the M-L condition is much weaker that commonly thought. This therefore makes an important contribution to thinking regarding the potential benefits of devaluation, and to economic theory in general. Practical implications – Policymakers who hope to improve their countries' competitive position could benefit from learning that this policy is indeed less effective than might be supposed. This could lead to the implementation of more effective economic policies. Originality/value – As a literature review, the originality of this paper is that it collects relevant studies into one single paper. The statistical analyses allow the reader to re-interpret these studies' findings in a new light. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent academic work has suggested that China's exports to the United States contain a large portion of non-Chinese value added. This paper looks at what the findings of this work could suggest for U.S. and Chinese trade balances, provides some theoretical cautions in interpreting valueadded trade findings, and applies those cautions to U.S. and Chinese trade balances. The paper begins by showing that a country's reported trade balance with the world is always the same as its value-added trade balance with the world. Thus, to the extent that China's net exports to the United States are lower on a value-added than on a reported basis, China's net exports to some other countries must be correspondingly higher on a value-added basis than on a reported basis. China must also have a substantially smaller market for imported final goods than reported import data suggest. Additionally, the paper discusses data and theoretical issues in comparing Chinese value added to value added in other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to analyze the evolution of the trilateral trade relationship between Mexico, the United States and China, and its main characteristics, from 1993 to 2020, through the application of vector autoregressive (VAR) models at different points in time. More specifically, trade links between these economies have been transformed from a first phase of little significance to a second phase with profound interrelationships since 2001, and finally to a current consolidation stage, despite the current increasingly complex environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – Bilateral trade between Egypt and China has expanded substantially in recent years. Few studies however have focused on the understanding of this trade relationship. The purpose of this paper is to fill a void in the literature by examining and understanding the two countries' trade pattern. Design/methodology/approach – In order to achieve the objectives of the paper, and in the light of the pool of literature and availability of data, the authors relied on qualitative methods to analyze the composition of trade between Egypt and China. In addition, the authors employed trade intensity index, intra-industry trade index, and examined the trade complementarity to capture the dynamics and perspectives of bilateral trade between the two countries. Findings – Results show low values in Egypt's trade intensity index, implying that Egyptian trade with China is less than it should be. The low values of the intra-industry trade index suggest smaller trade between the two countries' firms in the same industry. The study clearly shows that there are few areas where there is an overlap in the two countries' comparative advantage. The trade complementarity analysis tends to suggest that the complementarity for China to export to Egypt is increasing, while that for Egypt to export to China is declining. Originality/value – Given the lack of research that examines and compares trade between the two countries, the paper provides an in-depth understanding of the patterns of trade between them and the driving forces behind such dynamics, which is pertinent to best capture the opportunities presented by the Chinese market. Also, the findings can be used to draw policy implications for promoting future trade and cooperation between Egypt and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit-root and cointegration tests to verify the long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third-country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country’s exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM-IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine the channels through which the current global crisis affects Korea's trade and assess the implications thereof. These five important channels under investigation are: (1) world demand, (2) domestic demand, (3) exchange rate, (4) credit markets, and (5) protectionism. We conclude that the world demand channel is the most important factor for the recovery of Korea's exports. We expect that depreciation followed by the crisis should generate only small positive effects on a trade balance in the short run. However, depreciation can erode the long-term competitiveness of domestic firms because it can deteriorate not only firms' balance sheets but also banks' balance sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the impact of a series of tariffs imposed by the U.S. government which led to a trade war with China in 2018. Topics discussed include impact of tariffs on foreign export prices and import values, expansion of tariff application on imports from China in July 2018, and use of an event-study specification to review the impact of tariffs on U.S. import values and prices.

Development of the non-oil export sector and economic diversification has become a critical issue for the government of Azerbaijan. This necessity is connected with fluctuating oil prices in the world energ markets and precipitous changes in international economics. President Mr Ilham Aliyev attended an interactive session on Strategic Outlook: Eurasia held as part of the Davos World Economic Forum in 2018 and stressed that "as a source of major income we should look at technology, innovation, industry, entrepreneurship, and agriculture". Although these sectors have been prioritized and large-scale reforms are conducted in Azerbaijan, this paper detects that Azerbaijan is at the onset of economic diversification and its economy is still fueled by oil and gas revenues. The future progress will depend on how deeply and holistically the reforms will be realized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility of exchange rate appreciations and depreciations affecting macroeconomic variables has recently been rising in popularity in empirical international economics. Indeed, several theoretical studies have pointed out that exporters may behave diversely when facing different directions and sizes of exchange rate fluctuations. The empirical literature for the Brazilian case on this issue is still scarce. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate non-linearity on the flow of international trade of disaggregated Brazilian exports and imports for five major trading partners. For this purpose, the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology is applied to traditional trade equations. The results reveal, among other things, that exchange rate non-linearity shows a better response to the models (in terms of statistical significance and expected signs of estimated elasticities) regarding Brazilian imports. Therefore, a conclusion concerning the exchange rate policy is that an incentive for exports resulting from an over-depreciated exchange rate may actually have a greater impact on imports by discouraging them, which is an outcome with possible policy implications. Moreover, the results have remarkable applications since exchange rate appreciations did not seem to decrease exports by a significant amount, as was argued to be the case after the period of overvaluated currency in the 2000s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Korean economy has been significantly affected by the emergence of China. It is now the largest market for Korean exports and a major supplier of its low-cost imports but has at the same time become a serious challenger to Korea in the world markets for manufacturing exports. This paper investigates changes in China's export structure and its effect on Korea, and bilateral trade between the two. It also examines the motives for Korean investment in China and its effect on bilateral trade and cross-border production networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the long relationship between the European Union and the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries aimed at encouraging their exports while stimulating growth and investment, the ACP states still face difficulties in integrating into the world economy. This paper examines the non-least developed ACP countries preferential trade with the EU using data on EU member states’ imports eligible for preferences under the Cotonou agreement for the period 2001 at the 8-digit level. Using data on tariffs and preferential quota applicable on each 8-digit product for the year 2001 ad-valorem tariff rates were calculated. The paper also investigates the existence of a threshold in the offered duty reduction under which traders have no incentives to ask for preferences since the costs of obtaining these exceeds their benefits. Our results showed that the higher the value of preferences offered, the higher the probability that preferences are requested. Using endogenous threshold estimation techniques we also provided evidence that there exists a minimum value of preferences needed for traders to request preferences. More specifically, if the difference between preferential and third country tariff rates are lower than 4 per cent, there are no incentives for traders to request preferences since the costs of obtaining the preferences are expected to be higher than the benefits from obtaining the preferences. Our results additionally indicate that country specificities also play an important role in the decision whether requesting preferences or not and how much to import. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The EU and Canada represent the largest market in the world for the sale of ecological products attracting exports from many third countries and recording a total sale of 95% of the worldwide total market. The European market for ecological products - also known as "bio" / "eco" - in absolute figures - is somewhere around 20 billiards euro/year, and in the case of Romania, the market for those products varies around 200 million euro/year. According to European legislation, there are harmonized provisions and procedures for the import of ecological products which can be implemented in two ways: either by complying with the EU legislation on ecologic products, or based on the equivalence between the existent standards and control systems. In many European countries, the operators on such a market obey the rules established by Legislation for ecologic productions strictly. In Romania, a sanctioning system against those economic operators who fraudulently use product labels suggesting they are organic products has just recently been considered. Taking into consideration all these aspects, the present paper relies on the most recent bibliographic and statistical references in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses how the competition between China and the EU in export markets has affected the trade performance of European countries. It first draws on a comparison between Germany and France before turning to discuss the economic and social impact of China's internationalization on Europe's economies. The results suggest that even in the recent years when China has gained prominence, it should not be blamed for more than half of the measured effects for emerging countries. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper analyses India's import sourcing over the period 1960-85 in a preference-consistent, utility-maximizing framework using the 'almost ideal demand system'. Assuming separability between exports, imports and domestic production, the paper estimates unrestricted, homogeneity and symmetry-constrained versions of this demand system on Indian import data, and tests for the empirical validity of the restrictions. The results are analysed and some implications for commercial policy changes examined. The empirical evidence of this exercise seems to point to the need for a wider concept of 'rationality' than has been used in the recent literature, particularly when estimating preference-consistent import-export demand functions of a developing mixed economy with central planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign economic activity is a major determinant of export developments. However, foreign GDP figures are published too late to be useful for short‐term forecasting. This paper presents a number of indicators based on the widely available PMI surveys that provide very early signals of foreign activity. Using MIDAS models we analyze the in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance of these and related indicators for two very trade‐exposed countries (Germany and Switzerland). We find that the monthly indicators based on foreign PMIs are strongly correlated with quarterly export growth. The forecast comparison shows that PMI‐based indicators perform very well relative to other benchmark models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a summary of the general discussion on the paper "Markets Matter: The Potential of Intra-Regional Trade in ASEAN and Its Implications for Asian Regionalism" by Lurong Chen, Philippe De Lombaerde and Ludo Cuyvers. The paper explores the potential for further deepening the region's economic integration. It also discusses the potential of ASEAN to export more to the regional market and the importance of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to ASEAN.

The international export and investment activities of firms have been widely studied by scholars. In particular, prior studies have focused on two main hypotheses about firms engaged in international activities such as exporting and investing abroad; namely, self-selection of more productive firms into international activities and learning-by-doing international activities. This paper is the first study that explores these hypotheses in regard to firms' use of free trade agreements (FTAs). We first estimate the propensity score for firms' use of FTA schemes, and find that larger firms are more likely to participate. Then, by conducting matching analysis using the propensity scores, we find that, at least in the short run, the use of FTAs does not change bilateral exports, bilateral imports and employment but does raise the share of local inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]