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The time series analysis and prediction techniques are highly valued in many application fields, such as economy, medicine and biology, environmental sciences or meteorology, among others. In the last years, there is a growing interest in the sustainable and optimal management of a resource as scarce as essential: the water. Forecasting techniques for water management can be used for different time horizons from the planning of constructions that can respond to long-term needs, to the detection of anomalies in the operation of facilities or the optimization of the operation in the short and medium term. In this paper, a deep neural network is specifically designed to predict water consumption in the short-term. Results are reported using the time series of water consumption for a year and a half measured with 10-min frequency in the city of Murcia, the seventh largest city in Spain by number of inhabitants. The results are compared with K Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and two persistence models as naive methods, showing the proposed deep learning model the most accurate results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the training process of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is vital for enhancing their performance and broadening their applicability. This paper employs the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) technique, integrated with a stopping criterion, to construct the probability distribution of the learning error of an ANN designed for short-term forecasting. The training and validation processes were conducted multiple times, each time considering a unique random starting point, and the subsequent forecasting error was calculated one step ahead. From this, we ascertained the probability of having obtained all the local optima. Our extensive computational analysis involved training a shallow feedforward neural network (FFNN) using wind power and load demand data from the transmission systems of the Netherlands and Germany. Furthermore, the analysis was expanded to include wind speed prediction using a long short-term memory (LSTM) network at a site in Spain. The improvement gained from the FFNN, which has a high probability of being the global optimum, ranges from 0.7% to 8.6%, depending on the forecasting variable. This solution outperforms the persistent model by between 5.5% and 20.3%. For wind speed predictions using an LSTM, the improvement over an average-trained network stands at 9.5%, and is 6% superior to the persistent approach. These outcomes suggest that the advantages of exhaustive search vary based on the problem being analyzed and the type of network in use. The MCS method we implemented, which estimates the probability of identifying all local optima, can act as a foundational step for other techniques like Bayesian model selection, which assumes that the global optimum is encompassed within the available hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The active cervical range of motion (aROM) is assessed by clinicians to inform their decision-making. Even with the ability of neck motion to discriminate injured from non-injured subjects, the mechanisms to explain recovery or persistence of WAD remain unclear. There are few studies of ROM examinations with precision tools using kinematics as predictive factors of recovery rate. The present paper will evaluate the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) using kinematic variables to predict the overall change of aROM after a period of rehabilitation in WAD patients. To achieve this goal the neck kinematics of a cohort of 1082 WAD patients (55.1% females), with mean age 37.68 (SD 12.88) years old, from across Spain were used. Prediction variables were the kinematics recorded by the EBI® 5 in routine biomechanical assessments of these patients. These include normalized ROM, speed to peak and ROM coefficient of variation. The improvement of aROM was represented by the Neck Functional Holistic Analysis Score (NFHAS). A supervised multi-layer feed-forward ANN was created to predict the change in NFHAS. The selected architecture of the ANN showed a mean squared error of 308.07–272.75 confidence interval for a 95% in the Monte Carlo cross validation. The performance of the ANN was tested with a subsample of patients not used in the training. This comparison resulted in a medium correlation with R = 0.5. The trained neural network to predict the expected difference in NFHAS between baseline and follow up showed modest results. While the overall performance is moderately correlated, the error of this prediction is still too large to use the method in clinical practice. The addition of other clinically relevant factors could further improve prediction performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, alternative non-parametric forecasting techniques are analysed, with emphasis placed on the difference between the reconstruction and learning approaches. The former is based on Takens' Theorem, which recovers unknown dynamic properties of a system; it is appropriate in deterministic systems. The latter is a powerful instrument in noisy systems. Both techniques are applied to the forecasting of Spanish unemployment, first one step -forecasting and second using a longer time horizon of prediction. To assess the robustness and generality of the methods we have employed unemployment time series of different European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Fire Ecology is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Predicting the levels of a pollutant in a given area is an open problem, mainly because historical data are typically available at certain locations, where monitoring stations are located, but not at all locations in the area. This work presents an approach based on developing predictions at each of the points where an immission station is available; in this case, based on shallow Artificial Neural Networks, ANNs, and then using a simple geostatistical interpolation algorithm (Inverse Distance Weighted, IDW), a pollutant map is constructed over the entire study area, thus providing predictions at each point in the plane. The ANN models are designed to make 1 h ahead and 4 h ahead predictions, using an autoregressive scheme as inputs (in the case of 4 h ahead as a jumping strategy). The results are then compared using the Friedman and Bonferroni tests to select the best model at each location, and predictions are made with all the best models. In general, to the 1 h ahead prediction models, the optimal models typically have fewer neurons and require minimal historical data. For instance, the best model in Algeciras has an R of almost 0.89 and consists of 1 hidden neuron and 3 to 5 lags, similar to Colegio Los Barrios. In the case of 4h ahead prediction, Colegio Carteya station shows the best model, with an R of almost 0.89 and a MSE of less than 240, including 5 hidden neurons and different lags from the past. The results are sufficiently adequate, especially in the case of predictions 4 h into the future. The aim is to integrate the models into a tool for citizens and administrations to make decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel hybrid approach, combining wavelet transform, particle swarm optimization, and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, is proposed in this paper for short-term electricity prices forecasting in a competitive market. Results from a case study based on the electricity market of mainland Spain are presented. A thorough comparison is carried out, taking into account the results of previous publications. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we compare two different methodologies for Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC) retrieval from Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (CHRIS) data onboard the European Space Agency (ESA) Project for On-Board Autonomy (PROBA) platform. The first methodology is based on empirical approaches using Vegetation Indices (VIs), in particular the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Variable Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI). The second methodology is based on the Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) technique, in which a Linear Spectral Unmixing model has been considered in order to retrieve the abundance of the different constituent materials within pixel elements, called Endmembers (EMs). These EMs were extracted from the image using three different methods: i) manual extraction using a land cover map, ii) Pixel Purity Index (PPI) and iii) Automated Morphological Endmember Extraction (AMEE). The different methodologies for FVC retrieval were applied to one PROBA/CHRIS image acquired over an agricultural area in Spain, and they were calibrated and tested against in situ measurements of FVC estimated with hemispherical photographs. The results obtained from VIs show that VARI correlates better with FVC than NDVI does, with standard errors of estimation of less than 8% in the case of VARI and less than 13% in the case of NDVI when calibrated using the in situ measurements. The results obtained from the SMA-LSU technique show Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) below 12% when EMs are extracted from the AMEE method and around 9% when extracted from the PPI method. A RMSE value below 9% was obtained for manual extraction of EMs using a land cover use map. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a competitive electricity market, an accurate forecasting of energy prices is an important activity for all the market participants either for developing bidding strategies or for making investment decisions. An adaptive wavelet neural network (AWNN) is proposed in this paper for short-term price forecasting (STPF) in the electricity markets. A commonly used Mexican hat wavelet has been chosen as the activation function for hidden-layer neurons of feed-forward neural network (FFNN). To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, day-ahead prediction of market clearing price (MCP) of Spain market, which is a duopoly market with a dominant player, and locational marginal price (LMP) forecasting in PJM electricity market, are considered. The forecasted results clearly show that AWNN has good prediction properties compared to other forecasting techniques, such as wavelet-ARIMA, multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks as well as recently proposed fuzzy neural network (FNN). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, an efficient method based on a new fuzzy neural network is proposed for short-term price fore- casting of electricity markets. This fuzzy neural network has inter-layer and feed-forward architecture with a new hypercubic training mechanism. The proposed method predicts hourly market-clearing prices for the day-ahead electricity markets. By combination of fuzzy logic and an efficient learning algorithm, an appropriate model for the nonstationary behavior and outliers of the price series is presented. The proposed method is examined on the Spanish electricity market. It is shown that the method can provide more accurate results than the other price forecasting techniques, such as ARIMA time series, wavelet-ARIMA, MLP, and RBF neural networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, the total net assets of mutual funds have increased considerably and turned them into one of the main investment instruments. Despite this increment, every year a considerable number of funds disappear. The main purpose of this paper is to determine if the neural networks can be a valid instrument to detect the survival capacity of a fund, using the traditional variables linked to the literature of disappearance funds: age, size, performance and volatility. This paper also incorporates annualized variation in return and the Sharpe ratio as variables. The data used is a sample of Spanish mutual funds during 2018 and 2019. The results show that the network correctly classifies funds into surviving and non-surviving with a total error of 13%. Moreover, it shows that not all variables are significant to determine the survival capacity of a fund. The results indicate that surviving and non-surviving funds differ in variables related to performance and its variation, volatility and the Sharpe ratio. However, age and size are not significant variables. As a conclusion, the neural network correctly predicts the 87% of survival capacity of mutual funds. Therefore, this methodology can be used to classify this financial instrument according to its survival or disappearance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An enhanced Hybrid Intelligent System is proposed to predict the energy generated by a solar thermal system. • Supervised (neural networks) and unsupervised learning (clustering) are combined an applied to a real-world case study. • Best regression results are obtained when applying a Multilayer Perceptron trained with the Bayesian Regularization and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithms to k-means clustered datasets. There is wide acknowledgement that solar energy is a promising and renewable source of electricity. However, complementary sources are sometimes required, due to its limited capacity, in order to satisfy user demand. A Hybrid Intelligent System (HIS) is proposed in this paper to optimize the range of possible solar energy and power grid combinations. It is designed to predict the energy generated by any given solar thermal system. To do so, the novel HIS is based on local models that implement both supervised learning (artificial neural networks) and unsupervised learning (clustering). These techniques are combined and applied to a real-world installation located in Spain. Alternative models are compared and validated in this case study with data from a whole year. With an optimum parameter fit, the proposed system managed to calculate the solar energy produced by the panel with an error that was lower than 10−4 in 86% of cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a localization model employing convolutional neural network (CNN) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) based on Wi-Fi received signal strength indication (RSSI) fingerprinting data. In the proposed scheme, the CNN model is trained by a training dataset. The trained model adapts to complex scenes with multipath effects or many access points (APs). More specifically, the pre-processing algorithm makes the RSSI vector which is formed by considerable RSSI values from different APs readable by the CNN algorithm. The trained CNN model improves the positioning performance by taking a series of RSSI vectors into account and extracting local features. In this design, however, the performance is to be further improved by applying the GPR algorithm to adjust the coordinates of target points and offset the over-fitting problem of CNN. After implementing the hybrid model, the model is experimented with a public database that was collected from a library of Jaume I University in Spain. The results show that the hybrid model has outperformed the model using k-nearest neighbor (KNN) by 61.8%. While the CNN model improves the performance by 45.8%, the GPR algorithm further enhances the localization accuracy. In addition, the paper has also experimented with the three kernel functions, all of which have been demonstrated to have positive effects on GPR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, next-day hourly forecasts are calculated for the energy price in the electricity production market of Spain. The methodology used to achieve these forecasts is based on artificial neural networks, which have been used successfully in recent years in many forecasting applications. The days to be forecast include working days as well as weekends and holidays, due to the fact that energy price has different behaviours depending on the kind of day to be forecast. Besides, energy price time series are usually composed of too many data, which could be a problem if we are looking for a short period of time to reach an adequate forecast. In this paper, a training method for artificial neural nets is proposed, which is based on making a previous selection for the multilayer perceptron (MLP) training samples, using an ART-type neural network. The MLP is then trained and finally used to calculate forecasts. These forecasts are compared to those obtained from the well-known Box–Jenkins ARIMA forecasting method. Results show that neural nets perform better than ARIMA models, especially for weekends and holidays. Both methodologies calculate more accurate forecasts—in terms of mean absolute percentage error—for working days that for weekends and holidays. Agents involved in the electricity production market, who may need fast forecasts for the price of electricity, would benefit from the results of this study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The expansion of holiday rentals' worldwide makes it relevant to confirm what are the determinants of these accommodations' daily rates. This research aims to compare two models on estimating holiday rentals' daily rate through variables that influence it; using artificial neural networks and hedonic pricing method, with the same cross-sectional dataset and variables with data obtained from Booking.com listings from Seville (Spain), a 'cultural tourism' large European city. Artificial neural networks estimations adapt better than the hedonic pricing method due to non-linear relations involved, although hedonic estimators have a clearer economic interpretation. Variables related to size, location and amenities appear as the most relevant in the models, including also seasonal and special events factors. The models presented, not only help to clarify these variables but also allow estimating a rental price congruent with the characteristics of the dwelling and season, being useful as an objective valuation method for the main agents of the accommodation sector: Owners, clients and peer-to-peer platforms. This study wants to highlight the convenience of using Booking.com listings as the main data source, as two variables presented as relevant for the models (size and location) are not available in other peer-to-peer platforms like Airbnb. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents a comprehensive statistical analysis of the cosmogenic radioisotope 7 Be measured in surface air in ten stations over Spain for a 9 years period (from January 2006 to December 2014). Besides the analysis of 7 Be seasonal and inter-annual variability, 7 Be frequency distributions and its correlations with meteorological variables observed in the 10 sampling sites were investigated. The second part of this paper focuses on a feasibility study for the application of the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to predict monthly 7 Be activity concentrations using meteorological variables, PM10 concentrations and the sunspot number as input parameters. Notwithstanding the low correlations found between 7 Be and input parameter, the performance of the ANNs, as evaluated by the relevant statistical parameters, demonstrates their capability to correctly predict 7 Be monthly activities in the 10 Spanish sampling sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of ML in agronomy has been increasing exponentially since the start of the century, including data-driven predictions of crop yields from farm-level information on soil, climate and management. However, little is known about the effect of data partitioning schemes on the actual performance of the models, in special when they are built for yield forecast. In this study, we explore the effect of the choice of predictive algorithm, amount of data, and data partitioning strategies on predictive performance, using synthetic datasets from biophysical crop models. We simulated sunflower and wheat data using OilcropSun and Ceres-Wheat from DSSAT for the period 2001-2020 in 5 areas of Spain. Simulations were performed in farms differing in soil depth and management. The data set of farm simulated yields was analyzed with different algorithms (regularized linear models, random forest, artificial neural networks) as a function of seasonal weather, management, and soil. The analysis was performed with Keras for neural networks and R packages for all other algorithms. Data partitioning for training and testing was performed with ordered data (i.e., older data for training, newest data for testing) in order to compare the different algorithms in their ability to predict yields in the future by extrapolating from past data. The Random Forest algorithm had a better performance (Root Mean Square Error 35-38%) than artificial neural networks (37-141%) and regularized linear models (64-65%) and was easier to execute. However, even the best models showed a limited advantage over the predictions of a sensible baseline (average yield of the farm in the training set) which showed RMSE of 42%. Errors in seasonal weather forecasting were not taken into account, so real-world performance is expected to be even closer to the baseline. Application of AI algorithms for yield prediction should always include a comparison with the best guess to evaluate if the additional cost of data required for the model compensates for the increase in predictive power. Random partitioning of data for training and validation should be avoided in models for yield forecasting. Crop models validated for the region and cultivars of interest may be used before actual data collection to establish the potential advantage as illustrated in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a modified version of the SVIR compartmental model for predicting the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, which incorporates vaccination and a saturated incidence rate, as well as piece-wise time-dependent parameters that enable self-regulation based on the epidemic trend. We have established the positivity of the ODE version of the model and explored its local stability. Artificial neural networks are used to estimate time-dependent parameters. Numerical simulations are conducted using a fourth-order Runge–Kutta numerical scheme, and the results are compared and validated against actual data from the Autonomous Communities of Spain. The modified model also includes explicit parameters to examine potential future scenarios. In addition, the modified SVIR model is transformed into a system of one-dimensional PDEs with diffusive terms, and solved using a finite volume framework with fifth-order WENO reconstruction in space and an RK3-TVD scheme for time integration. Overall, this work demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified SVIR model and its potential for improving our understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic and supporting decision-making in public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a new automatic screening method to assess whether a patient from ambulatory care or emergency should be referred to a cardiology service. This method is based on deep neural networks with pretraining and takes as an input a raw ECG signal without annotation. This work is based on a prospective clinical study that took place at Hospital Clínic in Barcelona between 2011–2012 and recruited 1390 patients. For each patient, we recorded a 12-lead ECG and the diagnosis was conducted by the cardiology service at the same hospital. Normal, borderline normal and normal variant ECGs were labelled as normal and the rest as abnormal . Our deep neural networks with pretraining were tested through cross-validation with a cohort of 416 test patients. The performance of our model was compared against other standard classification methods such as neural networks without pretraining, Support Vector Machines, Extreme Learning Machines, k-Nearest Neighbours and a professional classification algorithm certified for medical use that annotates the raw ECG signals prior to classification. The resulting best classifier was a pretrained neural network with three hidden layers and 700 units in every layer. This network yielded an accuracy of 0.8552, a sensitivity of 0.9176 and a specificity of 0.7827. The best alternative classification method was a Support Vector Machine with a Gaussian kernel, which yielded an accuracy of 0.8476, a sensitivity of 0.9446 and a specificity of 0.7346. The professional classification algorithm yielded an accuracy of 0.8407, a sensitivity of 0.8558 and a specificity of 0.8214. Neural networks with pretraining automatically obtain a representation of the input data without resorting to any annotation and, thus, simplify the process of assessing normality of ECG signals. The results that we have obtained are slightly better than those obtained with the professional classification system and, for some network configurations, they can be considered as exchangeable. Neural networks with pretraining open up a promising line of research for the automatic assessment of ECG signals that may be used in the future in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: This paper presents an empirical study of a formative mobile-based assessment approach that can be used to provide students with intelligent diagnostic feedback to test its educational effectiveness.Method: An audience response system called SIDRA was integrated with a neural network-based data analysis to generate diagnostic feedback for guided learning. A total of 200 medical students enrolled in a General and Descriptive Anatomy of the Locomotor System course were taught using two different methods. Ninety students in the experimental group used intelligent SIDRA (i-SIDRA), whereas 110 students in the control group received the same training but without employing i-SIDRA.Results: In the students' final exam grades, a statistically significant difference was found between those students that used i-SIDRA as opposed to a traditional teaching methodology (T(162)=2.597; p=0.010). The increase in the number of correct answers during the feedback guided learning process from the first submission to the last submission in four multiple choice question tests was also analyzed. There were average increases of 20.00% (Test1), 11.34% (Test2), 8.88% (Test3) and 13.43% (Test4) in the number of correct answers. In a questionnaire rated on a five-point Likert-type scale, the students expressed satisfaction with the content (M=4.2) and feedback (M=3.5) provided by i-SIDRA and the methodology (M=4.2) used to learn anatomy.Conclusions: The use of audience response systems enriched with feedback such as i-SIDRA improves medical degree students' performance as regards anatomy of the locomotor system. The knowledge state diagrams representing students' behavior allow instructors to study their progress so as to identify what they still need to learn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reservoirs play a key role in many human societies due to their capability to manage water resources. In addition to their role in water supply and hydropower production, their ability to retain water and control the flow makes them a valuable asset for flood mitigation. This is a key function, since extreme events have increased in the last few decades as a result of climate change, and therefore, the application of mechanisms capable of mitigating flood damage will be key in the coming decades. Having a good estimation of the outflow of a reservoir can be an advantage for water management or early warning systems. When historical data are available, data-driven models have been proven a useful tool for different hydrological applications. In this sense, this study analyzes the efficiency of different machine learning techniques to predict reservoir outflow, namely multivariate linear regression (MLR) and three artificial neural networks: multilayer perceptron (MLP), nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) and long short-term memory (LSTM). These techniques were applied to forecast the outflow of eight water reservoirs of different characteristics located in the Miño River (northwest of Spain). In general, the results obtained showed that the proposed models provided a good estimation of the outflow of the reservoirs, improving the results obtained with classical approaches such as to consider reservoir outflow equal to that of the previous day. Among the different machine learning techniques analyzed, the NARX approach was the option that provided the best estimations on average. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to identify which variables related to capital structure theory predict business failure in the Spanish construction sector during the subprime crisis. An artificial neural network (ANN) approach based on Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) is proposed, which allows one to cluster between default and active firms' groups. The similarities and differences between the main features in each group determine the variables that explain the capacities of failure of the analyzed firms. The network tests whether the factors that explain leverage, such as profitability, growth opportunities, size of the company, risk, asset structure, and age of the firm, can be suitable to predict business failure. The sample is formed by 152 construction firms (76 default and 76 active) in the Spanish market. The results show that the SOM correctly predicts 97.4% of firms in the construction sector and classifies the firms in five groups with clear similarities inside the clusters. The study proves the suitability of the SOM for predicting business bankruptcy situations using variables related to capital structure theory and financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many types of research have been carried out with the aim of combating the COVID-19 pandemic since the first outbreak was detected in Wuhan, China. Anticipating the evolution of an outbreak helps to devise suitable economic, social and health care strategies to mitigate the effects of the virus. For this reason, predicting the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate has become one of the most important and challenging problems of the past months. In this paper, we apply a two-stage mid and long-term forecasting framework to the epidemic situation in eight districts of Andalusia, Spain. First, an analytical procedure is performed iteratively to fit polynomial curves to the cumulative curve of contagions. Then, the extracted information is used for estimating the parameters and structure of an evolutionary artificial neural network with hybrid architectures (i.e., with different basis functions for the hidden nodes) while considering single and simultaneous time horizon estimations. The results obtained demonstrate that including polynomial information extracted during the training stage significantly improves the mid- and long-term estimations in seven of the eight considered districts. The increase in average accuracy (for the joint mid- and long-term horizon forecasts) is 37.61% and 35.53% when considering the single and simultaneous forecast approaches, respectively. • Estimated polynomial model coefficients serve as COVID19 contagion rate descriptors. • EANNs are used to build valid predictors for different pandemic stages. • Considering curve polynomial descriptors significantly improve the model performances. • Simultaneous Multi-Task EANN forecast perform better in Málaga with simpler models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes a method for improving the capability of a data-driven multi-agent system (MAS) to perform condition monitoring and fault detection in industrial processes. To mitigate the false fault-detection alarms, a co-operation strategy among software agents is proposed because it performs better than the individual agents. Few steps transform this method into a valuable procedure for improving diagnostic certainty. First, a failure mode and effects analysis are performed to select physical monitoring signals of the industrial process that allow agents to collaborate via shared signals. Next, several artificial neural network (ANN) models are generated based on the normal behavior operation conditions of various industrial subsystems equipped with monitoring sensors. Thereafter, the agents use the ANN-based expected behavior models to prevent false alarms by continuously monitoring the measurement samples of physical signals that deviate from normal behavior. Finally, this method is applied to a wind turbine. The system and tests use actual data from a wind farm in Spain. The results show that the collaboration among agents facilitates the effective detection of faults and can significantly reduce false alarms, indicating a notable advancement in the industrial maintenance and monitoring strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and light sensors has required new approaches for high-resolution remote sensing applications. High spatial and temporal resolution spectral data acquired by multispectral and conventional cameras (or red, green, blue (RGB) sensors) onboard UAVs can be useful for plant water status determination and, as a consequence, for irrigation management. A study in a vineyard located in south-eastern Spain was carried out during the 2018, 2019, and 2020 seasons to assess the potential uses of these techniques. Different water qualities and irrigation application start throughout the growth cycle were imposed. Flights with RGB and multispectral cameras mounted on a UAV were performed throughout the growth cycle, and orthoimages were generated. These orthoimages were segmented to include only vegetation and calculate the green canopy cover (GCC). The stem water potential was measured, and the water stress integral (Sψ) was obtained during each irrigation season. Multiple linear regression techniques and artificial neural networks (ANNs) models with multispectral and RGB bands, as well as GCC, as inputs, were trained and tested to simulate the Sψ. The results showed that the information in the visible domain was highly related to the Sψ in the 2018 season. For all the other years and combinations of years, multispectral ANNs performed slightly better. Differences in the spatial resolution and radiometric quality of the RGB and multispectral geomatic products explain the good model performances with each type of data. Additionally, RGB cameras cost less and are easier to use than multispectral cameras, and RGB images are simpler to process than multispectral images. Therefore, RGB sensors are a good option for use in predicting entire vineyard water status. In any case, field punctual measurements are still required to generate a general model to estimate the water status in any season and vineyard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of EMPIRIA: Revista de Metodología de Ciencias Sociales is the property of Editorial UNED and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract: In this paper we present a novel system for addressing problems of local very short term (up to a time prediction horizon of 6h) temperature prediction based on Support Vector Regression algorithms (SVMr). Specifically, we construct SVMr banks based on the synoptic situation for each prediction period, incorporated by means of the well-known Hess–Brezowsky classification (HBC). We show how this SVMr bank structure obtains very good results in a real problem of short-term temperature prediction at Barcelona-El Prat International Airport (Spain), obtaining an average RMSE of 1.34°C in 6hour horizon prediction. Comparison with alternative neural techniques have been carried out in order to show the effectiveness of the proposed technique, and how the inclusion of the HBC classification is also able to improve the performance of these alternative neural algorithms in the problem. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Competitive structure of power markets causes various challenges for wind resources to participate in these markets. Indeed, production uncertainty is the main cause of their low income. Thus, they are usually supported by system operators, which is in contrast with the competitive paradigm of power markets. In this paper, a new strategy for increasing the profits of wind resources is proposed. In the suggested strategy, a Generation Company (GenCo), who owns both wind and pumped-storage plants, self-schedules the integrated operation of them regarding the uncertainty of wind power generation. For presenting an integrated self-schedule and obtaining a real added value of the strategy, participation of the GenCo in energy and ancillary service markets is modeled. The self-scheduling strategy is based on stochastic programming techniques. Outputs of the problem include generation offers in day-ahead energy market and ancillary service markets, including spinning and regulation reserve markets. A Neural Network (NN) based technique is used for modeling the uncertainty of wind power production. The proposed strategy is tested on a real wind farm in mainland, Spain. Moreover, added value of the strategy is presented in different conditions of the market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Breast screening is a method of detecting breast cancer at a very early stage. The first step involves taking an X-ray, called a mammogram, of each breast. The mammogram can detect small changes in breast tissue which may indicate cancers which are too small to be felt either by the woman herself or by a doctor. The World Health Organisation’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded that mammography screening for breast cancer reduces mortality. This means that out of every 500 women screened, one life will be saved. The present research uses the information obtained from the breast screening programme carried out in the public health area of Aviles (Principality of Asturias, Spain) from 1999 to 2007. The public health area of Aviles is formed by nine municipalities with a total of 160,000 inhabitants. The selection of the public health area was based on the following criteria: [•] This is the first screening programme performed in the area. [•] Almost 100% of the population in the area benefit from the public health system. [•] The Aviles public health area is a well-defined area of the region that does not send patients to other public health areas, which makes the study easier and more accurate. This paper describes a neural network based approach to breast cancer diagnosis; the model developed is able to determine which women are more likely to suffer from a particular kind of tumour before they undergo a mammography. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead prediction of electricity prices, which are so valuable for both producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets. However, electricity price has a nonlinear, volatile and time dependent behavior owning many outliers. Our forecast strategy is composed of a preprocessor and a Hybrid Neuro-Evolutionary System (HNES). Preprocessor selects the input features of the HNES according to MRMR (Maximum Relevance Minimum Redundancy) principal. The HNES is composed of three Neural Networks (NN) and Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) in a cascaded structure with a new data flow among its building blocks. The effectiveness of the whole proposed method is demonstrated by means of real data of the PJM and Spanish electricity markets. Also, the proposed price forecast strategy is compared with some of the most recent techniques in the area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In new deregulated electricity market, price forecasts have become a fundamental input to an energy company’s decision making and strategy development process. However, the exclusive characteristics of electricity price such as non-stationarity, non-linearity and time-varying volatile structure present a number of challenges for this task. In spite of all performed research on this area in the recent years, there is still essential need for more accurate and robust price forecast methods. Besides, there is a lack of efficient feature selection technique for designing the input vector of electricity price forecast. In this paper, a new two-stage feature selection algorithm composed of modified relief and mutual information (MI) techniques is proposed for this purpose. Moreover, cascaded neural network (CNN) is presented as forecast engine for electricity price prediction. The CNN is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster is a neural network (NN). The proposed feature selection algorithm selects the best set of candidate inputs which is used by the CNN. The proposed method is examined on PJM, Spanish and Ontario electricity markets and compared with some of the most recent price forecast techniques. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Air pollution in large cities produces numerous diseases and even millions of deaths annually according to the World Health Organization. Pollen exposure is related to allergic diseases, which makes its prediction a valuable tool to assess the risk level to aeroallergens. However, airborne pollen concentrations are difficult to predict due to the inherent complexity of the relationships among both biotic and environmental variables. In this work, a stochastic approach based on supervised machine learning algorithms was performed to forecast the daily Olea pollen concentrations in the Community of Madrid, central Spain, from 1993 to 2018. Firstly, individual Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models were applied to predict the day of the year (DOY) when the peak of the pollen season occurs, resulting the estimated average peak date 149.1 ± 9.3 and 150.1 ± 10.8 DOY for LightGBM and ANN, respectively, close to the observed value (148.8 ± 9.8). Secondly, the daily pollen concentrations during the entire pollen season have been calculated using an ensemble of two-step GAM followed by LightGBM and ANN. The results of the prediction of daily pollen concentrations showed a coefficient of determination (r2) above 0.75 (goodness of the model following cross-validation). The predictors included in the ensemble models were meteorological variables, phenological metrics, specific site-characteristics, and preceding pollen concentrations. The models are state-of-the-art in machine learning and their potential has been shown to be used and deployed to understand and to predict the pollen risk levels during the main olive pollen season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate prediction of building indoor temperatures and thermal demand is of great help to control and optimize the energy performance of a building. However, building thermal inertia and lag lead to complex nonlinear systems is difficult to model. In this context, the application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in buildings has grown considerably in recent years. The aim of this work is to study the thermal inertia of a building by developing an innovative methodology using multi-layered perceptron (MLP) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. This approach was applied to a public library building located in the north of Spain. A comparison between the prediction errors according to the number of time lags introduced in the models has been carried out. Moreover, the accuracy of the models was measured using the CV(RMSE) as advised by AHSRAE. The main novelty of this work lies in the analysis of the building inertia, through machine learning algorithms, observing the information provided by the input of time lags in the models. The results of the study prove that the best models are those that consider the thermal lag. Errors below 15% for thermal demand and below 2% for indoor temperatures were achieved with the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to construct the first short-term financial distress prediction model for the Spanish banking sector. Design/methodology/approach - The concept of financial distress covers a range of different types of financial problems, in addition to bankruptcy, which is not common in the sector. The methodology used to predict financial problems was artificial neural networks using traditional financial variables according to the capital, assets, management, earnings, liquidity and sensibility system, as well as a series of macroeconomic variables, the impact of which has been proven in a number of studies. Findings - The results obtained show that artificial neural networks are a highly suitable method for studying financial distress in Spanish credit institutions and for predicting all cases in which an entity has short-term financial problems. Originality/value - This is the first work that tries to build a model of artificial neural networks to predict the financial distress in the Spanish banking system, grouping under the concept of financial distress, apart from bankruptcy, other financial problems that affect the viability of these entities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is increasing temperatures and causing periods of water scarcity in arid and semi-arid climates. The agricultural sector is one of the most affected by these changes, having to optimise scarce water resources. An important phenomenon within the water cycle is the evaporation from water reservoirs, which implies a considerable amount of water lost during warmer periods of the year. Indeed, evaporation rate forecasting can help farmers grow crops more sustainably by managing water resources more efficiently in the context of precision agriculture. In this work, we expose an interpretable machine learning approach, based on a multivariate decision tree, to forecast the evaporation rate on a daily basis using data from an Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructure, which is deployed on a real irrigated plot located in Murcia (southeastern Spain). The climate data collected feed the models that provide a forecast of evaporation and a summary of the parameters involved in this process. Finally, the results of the interpretable presented model are validated with the best literature models for evaporation rate prediction, i.e., Artificial Neural Networks, obtaining results very similar to those obtained for them, reaching up to 0.85 R 2 and 0.6 M A E . Therefore, in this work, a double objective is faced: to maintain the performance obtained by the models most frequently used in the problem while maintaining the interpretability of the knowledge captured in it, which allows better understanding the problem and carrying out appropriate actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Electronic fetal monitoring (EFM) is the universal method for the surveillance of fetal well-being in intrapartum. Our objective was to predict acidemia from fetal heart signal features using machine learning algorithms. Methods: A case–control 1:2 study was carried out compromising 378 infants, born in the Miguel Servet University Hospital, Spain. Neonatal acidemia was defined as pH < 7.10. Using EFM recording logistic regression, random forest and neural networks models were built to predict acidemia. Validation of models was performed by means of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. Results: Best performance was attained using a random forest model built with 100 trees. The discrimination ability was good, with an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.865. The calibration showed a slight overestimation of acidemia occurrence for probabilities above 0.4. The clinical utility showed that for 33% cutoff point, missing 5% of acidotic cases, 46% of unnecessary cesarean sections could be prevented. Logistic regression and neural networks showed similar discrimination ability but with worse calibration and clinical utility. Conclusions: The combination of the variables extracted from EFM recording provided a predictive model of acidemia that showed good accuracy and provides a practical tool to prevent unnecessary cesarean sections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ‘Campo de Gibraltar’ region is a very industrialized area where very few air pollution studies have been carried out. Up to date, no model has been developed in order to predict air pollutant levels in the different towns spread in the region. Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulphur dioxide (SO2) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) series have been investigated (years 1999–2000–2001). Multilayer perceptron models (MLPs) with backpropagation learning rule have been used. A resampling strategy with two-fold crossvalidation allowed the statistical comparison of the different models considered in this study. Artificial neural networks (ANN) models were compared with Persistence and ARIMA models and also with models based on standard Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) over test sets with data that had not been used in the training stage. The models based on ANNs showed better capability of generalization than those based on MLR. The designed procedure of random resampling permits an adequate and robust multiple comparison of the tested models. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality of data and to transform exogenous variables into significant and independent components. Short-term predictions were better than medium-term predictions in the case of CO and SO2 series. Conversely, medium-term predictions were better in the case of SPM concentrations. The predictions are significantly promising (e.g., d SPM 24-ahead = 0.906, d CO 1-ahead = 0.891, d SO2 1-ahead = 0.851). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to produce accurate predictions of the NO2 concentrations at a specific station of a monitoring network located in the Bay of Algeciras (Spain). Artificial neural networks (ANNs) and sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) were used to create the forecasting models. Additionally, a new prediction method was proposed combining LSTMs using a rolling window scheme with a cross-validation procedure for time series (LSTM-CVT). Two different strategies were followed regarding the input variables: using NO2 from the station or employing NO2 and other pollutants data from any station of the network plus meteorological variables. The ANN and LSTM-CVT exogenous models used lagged datasets of different window sizes. Several feature ranking methods were used to select the top lagged variables and include them in the final exogenous datasets. Prediction horizons of t + 1, t + 4 and t + 8 were employed. The exogenous variables inclusion enhanced the model's performance, especially for t + 4 (ρ ≈ 0.68 to ρ ≈ 0.74) and t + 8 (ρ ≈ 0.59 to ρ ≈ 0.66). The proposed LSTM-CVT method delivered promising results as the best performing models per prediction horizon employed this new methodology. Additionally, per each parameter combination, it obtained lower error values than ANNs in 85% of the cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work aims to assess the usefulness of five vegetation indices (VI) derived from multispectral UAS imagery to capture the effects of deficit irrigation on the canopy structure of sweet cherry trees (Prunus avium L.) in southeastern Spain. Three irrigation treatments were assayed, a control treatment and two regulated deficit irrigation treatments. Four airborne flights were carried out during two consecutive seasons; to compare the results of the remote sensing VI, the conventional and continuous water status indicators commonly used to manage sweet cherry tree irrigation were measured, including midday stem water potential (Ψs) and maximum daily shrinkage (MDS). Simple regression between individual VIs and Ψs or MDS found stronger relationships in postharvest than in preharvest. Thus, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), resulted in the strongest relationship with Ψs (r2 = 0.67) and MDS (r2 = 0.45), followed by the normalized difference red edge (NDRE). The sensitivity analysis identified the optimal soil adjusted vegetation index (OSAVI) as the VI with the highest coefficient of variation in postharvest and the difference vegetation index (DVI) in preharvest. A new index is proposed, the transformed red range vegetation index (TRRVI), which was the only VI able to statistically identify a slight water deficit applied in preharvest. The combination of the VIs studied was used in two machine learning models, decision tree and artificial neural networks, to estimate the extra labor needed for harvesting and the sweet cherry yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plantations of fast-growing Eucalyptus trees have become a common sight in the western Iberian peninsula where they are planted to exploit their economic potential. Negative side-effects of large scale plantations including the invasive behavior of Eucalyptus trees outside of regular plantations have become apparent. This study uses medium resolution, multi-spectral imagery of the Sentinel 2 satellites to map Eucalyptus across Portugal and parts of Spain with a focus on Natura 2000 areas inside Portugal, that are protected under the European birds and habitats directives. This method enables the detection of small incipient as well as mixed populations outside of regular plantations. Ground truth maps were compiled using field surveys as well as high resolution satellite imagery and were used to train Feedforward Neural Networks. These models predict Eucalyptus tree cover with a sensitivity of up to 75.7% as well as a specificity of up to 95.8%. The overall accuracy of the prediction is 92.5%. A qualitative assessment of Natura 2000 areas in Portugal has been performed and 15 areas have been found to be affected by Eucalyptus of which 9 are strongly affected. This study demonstrates the applicability of multi-spectral imagery for tree-species classification and invasive species control. It provides a probability-map of Eucalyptus tree cover for the western Iberian peninsula with 10 m spatial resolution and shows the need for monitoring of Eucalyptus in protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of the present research is to contribute to the detection of tax fraud concerning personal income tax returns (IRPF, in Spanish) filed in Spain, through the use of Machine Learning advanced predictive tools, by applying Multilayer Perceptron neural network (MLP) models. The possibilities springing from these techniques have been applied to a broad range of personal income return data supplied by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IEF). The use of the neural networks enabled taxpayer segmentation as well as calculation of the probability concerning an individual taxpayer's propensity to attempt to evade taxes. The results showed that the selected model has an efficiency rate of 84.3%, implying an improvement in relation to other models utilized in tax fraud detection. The proposal can be generalized to quantify an individual's propensity to commit fraud with regards to other kinds of taxes. These models will support tax offices to help them arrive at the best decisions regarding action plans to combat tax fraud. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]