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In order to reveal the relationship between new urbanization and carbon emission to provide reference opinions for the construction of low-carbon urbanization, an evaluation system between new urbanization and carbon emission was constructed. Then their matching degree relationship was analyzed by coupling coordination degree model based on the data from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui Province, and their development trend from 2023 to 2032 was predicted by gray prediction model. The results show that: (1) New urbanization and carbon emission have the co-trend effect, and the consistency of core impact factors is relatively significant. Among them, the level of new urbanization increases from 0.058 in 2012 to 0.699 in 2021 and carbon emission development increases from 0.023 in 2012 to 0.165 in 2021, which both showing an upward trend. Meanwhile, social urbanization and population carbon emission are the core influencing factors. (2) The coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and carbon emission is low, but the synergy trend is optimistic and there is a large room for improvement. Among them, the coupling coordination coefficient of the coupling system rises from 0.136 in 2012 to 1.412 in 2021 (antagonistic phase), and then reaches 0.820 by 2032 (highly coordinated phase) by forecast. It shows that their current development is unbalanced, but the development trend is good, and there is a chance for improvement. This paper deepens the understanding of the logical correlation between new urbanization and carbon emission, and the following views are formed: (1) Low-carbon development is still the mainstream of new urbanization; (2) The coordination development of new urbanization and carbon emission reduction should be strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]