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The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional fossil-fuel-based power systems are undergoing rapid transformation via the replacement of coal-fired generation with wind and solar farms. The stochastic and intermittent nature of such renewable sources demands alternative dispatchable technology capable of meeting system stability and reliability needs. Battery energy storage can play a crucial role in enabling the high uptake of wind and solar generation. However, battery life is very sensitive to the way battery energy storage systems (BESS) are operated. In this paper, we propose a framework to analyse battery operation in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) electricity spot and contingency reserve markets. We investigate battery operation in different states of Australia under various operating strategies. By considering battery degradation costs within the operating strategy, BESS can generate revenue from the energy market without significantly compromising battery life. Participating in contingency markets, batteries can substantially increase their revenue with almost no impact on battery health. Finally, when battery systems are introduced into highly volatile markets (such as South Australia) more aggressive cycling of batteries leads to accelerated battery aging, which may be justified by increased revenue. The findings also suggest that with falling replacement costs, the operation of battery energy systems can be adjusted, increasing immediate revenues and moving the battery end-of-life conditions closer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]