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From 1990 to 2017, the number of vehicles in China increased sharply from 5 million to 310 million, and vehicle emissions became one of the major sources of air pollution. Among the main sources of PM 2.5 in Beijing, the contributions from vehicle sources increased from 5.6% (2000) to 31.1% (2012) to 45% (2017). In 2010, the CO, hydrocarbon (HC), NO x , and particulate matter (PM) emissions of yellow-label vehicles (YLVs) accounted for 46.1%, 47.9%, 63.1% and 86.1% of the total emissions from on-road vehicles. In recent years, China has been implementing a YLV scrappage subsidy policy to control air pollution, and this policy has cost several hundred billion yuan nationwide. However, China has not evaluated the costs and benefits of the policy. Many people question whether the YLV scrappage subsidy policy is worthwhile, but all the stakeholders involved complicate the process of accurately evaluating the true value of the policy. In this study, we evaluated and compared the costs and benefits of the policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region based on 1.362 million YLVs from 2008 to 2015. Because of the implementation of the policy, the PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO x , CO and HC emissions in the BTH region decreased by 16.46, 18.12, 174.44, 669.11, and 91.64 kt, respectively, in 2008–2015. The results show that the policy played an important role in reducing pollutant emissions and improving environmental quality in the BTH region. The costs, benefits, and net benefits of the policy were 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan , respectively. The cost-benefit ratio in the BTH region was 1:2.49; at the city scale, Beijing ranked first (1:7.27), and the cost-benefit ratios of Tianjin and Hebei Province were 1:2.06 and 1:1.14, respectively. Of the 13 cities in the BTH region, Beijing had the highest net benefits, amounting to 16.43 billion yuan , while Handan City has the lowest net benefits, amounting to −0.58 billion yuan. The results may provide scientific support for the promotion of older vehicle and diesel vehicle scrappage subsidy policies, the development of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and effective environmental decision-making in China. • Based on net number of scrappage YLVs, net benefits of the policy are calculated. • This paper estimates costs and benefits of the policy based on 1.27 million YLVs. • The costs, benefits, and net benefits are 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan. • The results help China promote vehicle scrappage subsidy policy on a large scale. • The results promote the development of the cost-benefit analysis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper aims to study the vehicular emissions trends in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, located in northern China. The multiyear emission inventories of NO X , CO, VOC and PM10 from road vehicles in the period 1999–2010 were developed by the COPERT IV model. Results show that vehicular emissions of CO and VOC have decreased by annual average change rates (AACR) of −3.1% to −5.2% and −4.4% to −6.9% in the study area, respectively. However, due to the rapid development of freight traffic, emissions of NO X and PM10 have kept increasing in Tianjin and Hebei. Based on the vehicular emission inventories, trends of emission levels for vehicles with different standards, as well as the overall effects of implementing vehicular emission mitigation strategies were assessed. It is suggested that passenger cars (PC) with Euro 0 and Euro I standards, which were at higher emission level in the PC fleet, should be gradually eliminated. Although the increasing rates (IR) of emissions from PC were lower than those of the PC population, the sharp growth of PC population in recent years contributed to a remarkable increase of emissions, weakening the overall mitigation effect. Total vehicle population capacity and other mitigation measures should be studied in China in order to develop new and more effective vehicular emission control strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]