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With global climate change and the rapid urbanization, urban flood and drought disasters are frequent and urban water supply systems are facing a sea of serious challenges. It is crucial to assess the resilience of urban water supply systems and develop corresponding disaster mitigation and improvement strategies. Urban water supply systems include many subsystems, but existing researches generally focus on a single subsystem. Therefore, this paper proposes a correlation analysis method and a factor analysis method for the resilience evaluation index system of urban water supply systems by combining each subsystem and applying grey system theory. The method can reflect the four dimensions of the water supply process (water source, water plant, supply and distribution network and users) and the five dimensions of the urban management system (society, natural environment, economy, physics and organization). Taking Qingdao as an example, a multi-level integrated evaluation model based on a cloud model is applied to simulate and analyze the resilience of Qingdao's water supply system. As a result, decision support is provided for planning and building resilience systems for urban water systems in the short and long term, based on four main factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For those involved in planning for regional and local scale changes in future climate, there is a requirement for climate information to be available in a context more usually associated with meteorological timescales. Here we combine a tool used in numerical weather prediction, the 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office, which are already applied operationally to numerical weather prediction models, to assess changes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Global ensemble. Through assessing projected changes in the frequency of the weather patterns at the end of the 21st Century, we determine that future changes in large-scale circulation tend towards an increase in winter of weather patterns associated with cyclonic and westerly wind conditions at the expense of more anticyclonic, settled/blocked weather patterns. In summer, the results indicate a shift towards an increase in dry settled weather types with a corresponding reduction in the wet and windy weather types. Climatologically this suggests a shift towards warmer, wetter winters and warmer, drier summers; which is consistent with the headline findings from the UK Climate Projections 2018. This paper represents the first evaluation of weather patterns analysis within UKCP Global. It provides a detailed assessment of the changes in these weather patterns through the 21st Century and how uncertainty in emissions, structural and perturbed parameters affects these results. We show that the use of these weather patterns in tandem with the UKCP projections is useful for future work investigating changes in a range of weather-related climate features such as extreme precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional processes on land-water-air interface carbon (C) budget and balance that interconnect the land and sea are in fact C neutrality critical processes within the earth system. It is therefore essential to quantitatively analyze synergistic land-water-air interface C transport and C exchange processes to gain a deep understanding of the important role that terrestrial ecosystems play in "missing C sink". This paper systematically analyzes global land-water-air interface C migration processes as well as C budget changes and associated impact mechanisms. It also investigates the important role that these C budgets and C cycling processes play in inland water bodies, respective to C budgets at the land-water-air interface. Moreover, this study reveals the regulatory mechanisms of land-water-air interface C budgets and balances under a background of global climate change. It also quantitatively evaluates the status of China's regional land-sea-air interface C budgets as well as the C sequestration potential of its lake systems. Finally, this study concludes that the explicit quantification of anthropogenic activity impacts on land-water-air interface C transport and exchange processes is of great significance to global C balances and C neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone (TC) activity is projected for the late twenty-first century using a two-step dynamical downscaling framework. A regional atmospheric model, is run for 27 seasons, to generate tropical storm cases. Each storm case is -resimulated (up to 15 days) using the higher-resolution Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory hurricane model. Thirteen CMIP3 or CMIP5 climate change scenarios are explored. Robustness of projections is assessed using statistical significance tests and comparing changes across models. The proportion of TCs making U.S. landfall increases for the warming scenarios, due, in part, to an increases in the percentage of TC genesis near the U.S. coast and a change in climatological steering flows favoring more U.S. landfall events. The increases in U.S. landfall proportion leads to an increase in U.S. landfalling category 4–5 hurricane frequency, averaging about + 400% across the models; 10 of 13 models/ensembles project an increase (which is statistically significant in three of 13 models). We have only tentative confidence in this latter increase, which occurs despite a robust decrease in Atlantic basin category 1–5 hurricane frequency, no robust change in Atlantic basin category 4–5 and U.S. landfalling category 1–5 hurricane frequency, and no robust change in U.S. landfalling hurricane intensities. Rainfall rates, averaged within a 100-km radius of the storms, are projected to increase by about 18% for U.S. landfalling TCs. Important caveats to the study include low correlation (skill) for interannual variability of modeled vs. observed U.S. TC landfall frequency and model bias of excessive TC genesis near and east of the U.S. east coast in present-day simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In early studies, northern vegetation response to global warming recognised both increases in biomass/cover and shrinking of species' distributional ranges. Subsequent field measurements focussed on vegetation cover and biomass increases ("greening"), and more recently decreases ("browning"). However, satellite observations show that more than 50% of arctic vegetation has not changed significantly despite rapid warming. While absence of change in remote sensing data does not necessarily mean no ecological change on the ground, the significant proportion of the Arctic that appears to be stable in the face of considerable climate change points to a greater need to understand Arctic ecosystem stability. In this paper, we performed an extensive review of the available literature to seek balances or imbalances between research focussing on "greening", "browning" and "stability/no change". We find that greening studies dominate the literature though two relatively small areas of the Arctic are disproportionately represented for this main change process. Critically, there are too few studies anywhere investigating stability. We highlight the need to understand the mechanisms driving Arctic ecosystem stability, and the potential longer-term consequences of remaining stable in a rapidly changing climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall are expected to have negative effects on ecosystem services by causing significant shrinkage or shift of forest distribution particularly in Mediterranean basin. In this study, it was aimed to determine the distribution of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis Lipsky.) by modelling the current and future potential locations of the habitats. With Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach, we predicted its distribution under current and future conditions (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Turkey. Modelling was performed by using eight bioclimatic variables that show significant relationship to the current distribution of oriental beech and were widely used in the literature. The fitted model had high quality (93.5% AUC) and is biological meaningful. The prediction of warmer condition in future showed that the populations on the southern slopes of the North Anatolian Mountains were expected to shrink and that there would be reduction in the populations found in the main distribution area in the Istranca Mountains and the Northern Anatolia, especially in populations in the transition zone of Central Anatolia. Also, oriental beech would lose its isolated-marginal populations in the southeast of Turkey. The results highlight the importance of a genetic conservation programme for beech population in Turkey. Otherwise, the genetic pools seem to extinct under climate change. Furthermore, the paper is intended to provide a starting point for a monitoring of oriental beech at the edge of its distribution, to observe its climatic migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rockfalls are frequent and damaging phenomena that occur on steep or vertical slopes, in coastal areas, mountains and along coastal cliff. Water, in different forms, is the most common triggered factor of rockfalls. Consequently, we can consider that precipitation is the most influential factor for slope instabilities and it influences almost all other water parameters. Besides, the specific geology of the Anaga nature reserve in the volcanic island of Tenerife, together with its steep landscape, contributes to the instability of the slopes and frequent rockfalls. Recently, due to climate change and global warming, the annual precipitation/rainfall has declined but the number of heavy storms, associated with intense rainfall and strong winds, events that exceed precipitation thresholds in a brief period has increased which triggers slope movements. This paper describes the analysis of information on rainfall-induced rockfalls in Anaga, Tenerife (Canary Islands), to forecast rock failures of social significance and to improve the capability to respond and emergency decision making. To define reliable thresholds for a certain area, we analized information during the period 2010–2016, reconstructed the rockfall events, and statistically analyzed the historical rainfall conditions that led to landslides. The summary graph correlating precipitation to the probability of occurrence of an event was plotted. Statistical and probability graphs were made with the direct relationship between the number of rockfall events and total rainfall in that period by examining the maximum daily precipitation, not only on the day of the event but up to 3 days before. Hence, the results of this study would serve as a guide for the possible forecasting of rainfall-induced rockfalls, especially for road maintenance services, so that they can be on alert or mobilize the necessary resources in advance depending on the intensity of the expected rainfall. Highlights: We have determined the correlation between the probability of occurrence of a rockfall event in a natural reserve (Anaga, island of Tenerife, Canary Islands) and the expected rainfall intensity. We have observed the time delay between the occurrence of rainfall and rock falls, corroborated by experience in this area, between the day of the event and the day of the maximum rainfall associated with it. We have provided a tool to be used by the Civil Protection and Emergency and Road Maintenance and Conservation Services of the island of Tenerife as part of their management to mobilise the necessary resources or means or to adopt traffic limitations or restrictions depending on the level of alert decreed for adverse meteorological phenomena related to rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The eight papers in this issue of I Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences i are authored by members and co-authors of the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the Montreal Protocol under the United Nations Environment Programme. In that first Assessment, Martyn emphasised the importance of evaluating the ways in which biological systems and the environment were being affected by depletion of stratospheric ozone and associated enhanced UV-B (280-315 nm) radiation at the Earth's surface. These papers assess the linkages between stratospheric ozone depletion and UV radiation, and climate change, with respect to the effects on the environment and human health. [Extracted from the article]

This paper explores the abstraction of classical physics and applies several metrics that explore the evolution of social opinion. These metrics include an abstraction of Newtonian kinematics: mass, position, speed, acceleration, and Newtonian dynamics, an abstraction of force. Poll data is fit to a 2nd-order polynomial and a logistic function. These fits are used to understand the acceleration of opinion shift, and we explore recent social, cultural, and environmental trends, such as views on global climate change. We compare our results with the evolution of communication technologies and time spent on devices over the past 120 years. We show that the model connects the evolution in opinion with an abstraction of a Galilean concept: acceleration is independent of mass. Finally, we discuss the model of social polarization and the non-linear effect of media such as echo chambers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study contributes to the literature on labour reallocation and adaptation in response to weather anomalies. Existing literature on labour mobility and weather shocks primarily focus on migration to the neglect of worker commuting as a potential adaptation strategy. Utilizing individual-level panel data from the Village Dynamics in South Asia (VDSA) dataset for the year 2010–2014, the present study explores the impact of weather anomalies on migration and commuting as well as participation and earnings in the non-agricultural sector. The fixed effects regression results show that negative temperature shocks induce a flow of labour outside the village through labour out-migration and longer-distance commutes. Temperature stress also negatively impacts non-agricultural earnings. The effects of temperature shocks are heterogeneous across the baseline climate of the villages suggesting evidence of adaptation to weather shocks. The study emphasizes the crucial role of labour mobility and adaptation in coping with weather shocks. The paper concludes with some policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element to all living beings but also a finite resource. P-related problems center around broken P cycles from local to global scales. This paper presents outcomes from the 9th International Phosphorus Workshop (IPW9) held 2019 on how to move towards a sustainable P management. It is based on two sequential discussion rounds with all participants. Important progress was reported regarding the awareness of P as finite mineable resource, technologies to recycle P, and legislation towards a circular P economy. Yet, critical deficits were identified such as how to handle legacy P, how climate change may affect ecosystem P cycling, or working business models to up-scale existing recycling models. Workshop participants argued for more transdisciplinary networks to narrow a perceived science-practice/policy gap. While this gap may be smaller in reality as illustrated with a Swiss example, we formulate recommendations how to bridge this gap more effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on climate change mitigation and adaptation is pressing in order to understand its implications and risks in different urban areas. It is especially critical for those who face high degrees of urban inequality in the context of an uneven state presence. This paper is an explorative and investigative study which uses Cairo as a case. The focus of the study is on mapping state and private sector efforts in mitigating climate change issues, specifically for vulnerable groups who have limited access to public services. The study adopted an investigative approach where a literature search and bibliometric mapping were used to identify the gap in knowledge in the field of architecture and urban climate change mitigation and adaptation, followed by a field survey which included conducting interviews and questionnaires with different stakeholders from the public and private sector to investigate the link between the efforts for climate change mitigation. The explorative part of the study concluded that there is a huge knowledge gap in the Middle East and in Egypt when it comes to research efforts related to climate change with a focus on the built environment. The results of the investigative part of this study revealed that—apart from already limited efforts on ground—there is no synchronization in efforts between the public and private sector. Climate change issues are still not a priority when poverty, economy, and health are still a prime concern and take precedence over climate change. There is uneven presence of public efforts for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The efforts that do exist in the public sphere are self-help unorganized work (efforts) conducted by the civil society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal Indigenous and Traditional communities are starting to see changes to their lives from climate change, whether this is from species range changes or displacement from land changes. For many of these communities, the ability to adequately adapt to these changes is limited by the governance structures they are required to live within, which differ from their customary practices and culture. In November 2019, a group of Indigenous and Traditional Peoples, attended the Future Seas 2030 workshop and discussed the consequences of climate change, the biggest barriers for their communities, and barriers for using traditional knowledge in order to contribute towards a more sustainable future that in the end will benefit all of earth's people. The aim of this workshop was to highlight and give a voice to the various backgrounds and real-life situations impacting on some of the world's Indigenous and Traditional communities whose connection with the oceans and coasts have been disrupted. This paper presents these issues of oppression, colonisation, language and agency, making it difficult for these groups to contribute to the current management of oceans and coasts, and asks scientists and practitioners in this space to be allies and enable the needed shift to earth's guardians taking a leading role in nurturing her for our future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper is devoted to the investigation of population dynamics under climate change. The evolution of species is modelled by a reaction-diffusion equation in a spatio-temporally heterogeneous environment described by a climate envelope that shifts with a time-dependent speed function. For a general almost-periodic speed function, we establish the persistence criterion in terms of the sign of the approximate top Lyapunov exponent and, in the case of persistence, prove the existence of a unique forced wave solution that dominates the population profile of species in the long run. In the setting for studying the effects of fluctuations in the shifting speed or location of the climate envelope, we show by means of matched asymptotic expansions and numerical simulations that the approximate top Lyapunov exponent is a decreasing function with respect to the amplitude of fluctuations, yielding that fluctuations in the shifting speed or location have negative impacts on the persistence of species, and moreover, the larger the fluctuation is, the more adverse the effect is on the species. In addition, we assert that large fluctuations can always drive a species to extinction. Our numerical results also show that a persistent species under climate change is invulnerable to mild fluctuations, and becomes vulnerable when fluctuations are so large that the species is endangered. Finally, we show that fluctuations of amplitude less than or equal to the speed difference between the shifting speed and the critical speed are too weak to endanger a persistent species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Island communities are among the first and most adversely affected by the impacts of global climate change. Islands are vulnerable to climate change because of their isolated geography, large coastal areas, and low economic diversification. This paper presents a model-based evaluation of the macroeconomic impacts of climate change on the Blue Economy of southern European islands. We consider climate change impact chains on tourism, maritime transport, and electricity demand in a downscaled modeling framework for different climatic scenarios to the end of the century. Our findings show important economic losses in all climatic scenarios, yet economic damages under an RCP8.5 scenario more than doubled compared to a RCP2.6 pathway. Magnitudes of impacts vary across islands, depending on the level of economic diversification and geographic remoteness. The effects of climate change on the tourism sector are detrimental to the islandic economies, given the sector’s complex value chain and dominant position in value added. Similarly, increasing electricity demand for cooling and water desalination puts additional stress on the economy of the islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decisions made by agricultural households to adjust to climate change (CC) in Iran are not well known. This study is intended to investigate the influence of perceptions and socioeconomic, institutional features on farmers' adaptation decisions about CC, which constitute the hypothetical statements of the study. We undertook a survey of 200 farm householders from 31 villages of Ilam Province, situated in the western Iran, as randomly selected. The result discloses that the proposed discriminant model matches the data-set well, with a strong effect size of partial eta-squared (η2 = 0.38). The analysis further signals that adapters are younger and more well-educated than non-adapters. Adapters are also knowledgeable about CC risks and institutional policy barriers. The adapters have subsidiary work, better access to credit, and have good contacts with expansion agents and specialists. The paper concludes that government authorities should provide farmers with the enriched capabilities and competencies enabling them to adapt to CC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of wind generated waves due to the prevailing climate change induced by global warming is vital for benefit to the coastal community. In the present paper, the hindcasting of decadal variation namely (i) 1979–1992, (ii) 1993–2006, and (iii) 2007–2019 of wind-wave climate over seasonal and annual scale through 41 years starting from 1979 is carried out using ERA5 reanalysis wind-forcing with a daily temporal and 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution. The numerical simulations are executed over the computational domains (i) Global—Indian Ocean and (ii) Regional—south Gujarat to north Goa for evaluating the variability analysis of annual and seasonal mean significant wave heights. The evaluation framework is validated over three in-situ measurement locations with good correlation as compared to the simulated results. The results indicate that at this site the wind and wave activity is noted to increase during transition from 1979–1992 to 1993–2006, then a declination of mean significant wave height is noted during the span 2007–2019. Further, along with the spatial variation estimation, 27 locations along 15 m bathymetric contour at 25 km interval are selected for trend line study. All the 27 locations exhibits a similar kind of trend by variation of decreasing trend from 1979–2019 with variations 0.07–0.22 cm/year. This study highlights the significance in simulating the prevailing wind-wave changes at a regional level considering the impact of the climatology and seasonality changes for effective coastal management, environmental impact assessments and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea ice continues to decline across many regions of the Arctic, with remaining ice becoming increasingly younger and more dynamic. These changes alter the habitats of microbial life that live within the sea ice, which support healthy functioning of the marine ecosystem and provision of resources for human-consumption, in addition to influencing biogeochemical cycles (e.g. air–sea CO2 exchange). With the susceptibility of sea ice ecosystems to climate change, there is a pressing need to fill knowledge gaps surrounding sea ice habitats and their microbial communities. Of fundamental importance to this goal is the development of new methodologies that permit effective study of them. Based on outcomes from the DiatomARCTIC project, this paper integrates existing knowledge with case studies to provide insight on how to best document sea ice microbial communities, which contributes to the sustainable use and protection of Arctic marine and coastal ecosystems in a time of environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that the crosswind reduces the output power of a SCPP (solar chimney power plant) with the deflection of the plume at the exit and separation of wind flow there at the downstream. The present numerical investigation was focused on the effect of the stack configuration on the performance of a SCPP. In this paper, the SCPP of the prototype in Manzanares was simulated, where the Boussinesq approximation was used for solving the continuity, Navier–Stokes and energy equations by the standard k-epsilon turbulence model in finite volume method. Governing parameters are taken as oblique angles from 27° to 45° and wind velocity from 0 to 10 m s−1. Investigation revealed that by changing the stack configuration, the performance of the SCPP could be improved. Numerical simulation of the conventional chimney was compared with the simulation data of the proposed altered chimney geometry (outlet bevel cutting) and observed that the throttling effect on the outlet of the chimney could be reduced. It was noticed that by changing the chimney oblique angle from 27° to 45°, the efficiency of the power plant was dropped. Further, the results illustrated that the oblique angle relies on the wind velocity and it needs to increase with the increase in the wind velocity to obtain a reasonable change in power output. The present investigation was further enhanced to incorporate a comparison of solar chimney power output in two cities (Kuala Lumpur and Kerman) for a better understanding of the effect of environment on constructing the solar tower power plant. The result shows that Kuala Lumpur is appropriated for the installation of SCPP although, the Kerman is suitable too, but the wind velocity in that city is higher than that in Kuala Lumpur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability of occurrence of snow cover and the impact of atmospheric circulation on the snow cover occurrence in the period 1966/1967–2019/2020 in Poznań (Poland) have been examined. The implementation of the primary study objective covers the comprehensive analysis of the winter snow and thermal conditions using various indicators. This paper is based on daily data from the years 1966–2020 concerning the winter period. Winters in Poznań are highly variable and differentiated, considering the duration of particular seasons, number of days with snow cover, mean snow cover thickness, winter snowiness coefficient, or winter severity index. Negative trends concerning days with snow cover total snow cover depth winter snowiness coefficient and winter severity index in Poznań prove statistically significant. A higher probability of occurrence of snow cover was determined during cyclonic than anticyclonic circulation. The westerly and northerly types especially favoured the occurrence of days with snow cover. The increase of snow cover was associated with the northerly inflow mainly. Westerly types of circulation caused the decrease of snow cover predominantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The control of flowering time is critical for plant survival, climatic change, and potential yield. Flowering time is a vital agriculture trait studied under both natural and artificial selection. It is controlled by both genetic and environmental cues. Photoperiod (day length) is a key flowering regulating factor due to its relatively high concern in the same geography, while other factors change year over year. Photoperiodic flowering time is controlled by a complex genetic network which is regulated by florigen. Hd3a/FT is florigen in rice which regulates flowering time in rice. Recent molecular genomic advancement revealed how to identify the molecular nature of florigen, its function, expression, and how to diversify its regulatory pathway. In this review paper, we summarize the recent understanding of flowering time regulation mainly focused on rice florigen (Hd3a), its molecular function, expression and diversified photoperiodic regulatory pathways under short days (SD) and long day (LD) conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and urbanization are significantly magnifying flood hazard, leading to a greater vulnerability of urban concentrations. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on urban flooding using future projected rainfall data and a calibrated hydraulic model. Two urban watersheds in Delhi, India (the Qudesia Nallah catchment and the Jahangirpuri drain catchment) are considered to evaluate the climate change impact on urban flooding. Regional climate models (RCMs) are used to project future precipitation, which is then utilized by the hydraulic model to evaluate the impact on flooding. Climate data from three RCMs extracted from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) are used to study the impact of climate change for historical (1990–2016) and future scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, 2021–2100). The rainfall projections are fed as 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year return periods to a calibrated hydrodynamic Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results show that the flooded nodes vary between 2–6 and 12–43, respectively, in the Qudesia Nallah catchment and the Jahangirpuri drain catchment under present conditions but increase from 11 to 51 and 42 to 91, respectively, for future climate conditions. The results suggest that the risk of occurrence of flooding, duration, and frequency in the two study areas will increase in the future when compared to those under the present conditions. The results also indicate that the damage induced by the 20-year return period rainfall at the present time will likely be caused just by the 2-year return period in the future. This is due to the greater likelihood of rainfall extremes in the region. The potential flooding sites identified in this study will provide the urban municipalities with substantive information to perform ameliorative strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how climate change adaptation impacts on farm productivity and the ability of households to accumulate assets in the context of a developing economy. We apply an endogenous switching regression to data obtained from 1440 farmers in Ghana. Our model, which accounts for endogeneity and selection bias, allows us to simultaneously determine the factors that influence maize farmers’ decision to adapt to climate change and the productivity and household assets that result from both adaptation and otherwise. We estimate an inverse relationship between rainfall and the decision to adapt to climate change. As expected, we find that access to information has a positive effect on the decision to adapt. Farms that benefit from adaptation do not become less productive with increases in temperature or rainfall. Overall, we find that farmers who adapt to climate change are more productive and have more household assets than their counterfactual. Farmers who do not adapt obtain less yield and have less household assets than their counterfactual. These findings have important implications for policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's largest fossil fuels exporter, Russia is one of the key countries for addressing global climate change. However, it has never demonstrated any significant ambitions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper applies ideational research methodology to identify the structural differences in economic, political, and social normative contexts between industrialized fossil fuel importing economies and Russia that lead to the fundamental gap in motivations driving decarbonization efforts. Russia is unlikely to replicate the approach to the green transition and climate policy instruments of energy-importing countries. In order to launch decarbonization in Russia, interested stakeholders need to frame climate policies in Russia differently. Specifically, the framing must address the priority of diversification as a means to adapting the national economy to a new green landscape, the combination of diverse channels for decarbonization, the promotion of energy-efficiency, closer attention to climate-related forest projects, and linkage of climate change with other environmental problems. Moreover, considering Russia's emissions as a part of the global economic system and shifting from a simplistic national focus on GHG emissions reduction would help coordinate policies through dialogue between exporters and importers of fossil fuel energy-intensive goods, which is essential for the global movement towards a net-zero future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an assessment of the rates of erosion and sedimentation in hollows of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley catchment, dominated by forest-steppe gray forest soils (Luvic Retic Greyzemic Phaeozems), over the past 55–60 years with the use of the radiocesium technique. This catchment is located in the Myosha River basin (Republic of Tatarstan, European Russia). The hollows have been grouped by the catchment's slope aspects, hollow length, hollow bottom gradient, and shape of the thalweg profile of the hollow bottoms; origin and age, as well as by the specifics of erosion/sedimentation processes. Short agrogenic hollows with a small catchment area on relatively steep western slopes of the Temeva Rechka small dry valley, probably formed after human deforestation, have been identified. The shape of their catchments contributes to the formation of surface runoff, sufficient for the erosion of a significant part of their bottoms at a rate of about 2–4 t/ha per year. Older, polygenetic, and relatively long hollows with a slightly sloping bottom and larger catchments serve as sediment transit zones between plowed areas and the Temeva Rechka small dry valley bottom. They are characterized by alternating areas of soil erosion and sediment accumulation. The average rate of soil erosion in these landforms is 0.8 t/ha per year. In some hollows, when several small tributaries (smaller hollows) flow into their lower parts, soil erosion loss increases to 3 t/ha per year. The average soil erosion loss is 6 t/ha per year on short slopes of the hollows; in their upper parts, it can reach 11 t/ha per year. There is a general decrease in the rates of soil erosion and accumulation of eroded material in recent decades due to changes in climate and land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is identified as a major threat to survival of natural ecosystems. Climate change is a dynamic, multifaceted system of alterations in environmental conditions that affect abiotic and biotic components of the world. It results in alteration in environmental conditions such as heat waves, intensity of rainfall, CO2 concentration and temperature that lead to rise in new pests, weeds and pathogens. Climate change is one of the major constraints limiting plant growth and development worldwide. It impairs growth, disturbs photosynthesis, and reduces physiological responses in plants. The variations in global climate have gained the attention of researchers worldwide, as these changes negatively affect the agriculture by reducing crop productivity and food security. With this background, this review focuses on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, drought and salinity on the morphology, physiology and biochemistry of plants. Furthermore, this paper outlines an overview on the reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and their impact on the biochemical and molecular status of plants with increased climatic variations. Also additionally, different tolerance strategies adopted by plants to combat environmental adversities have been discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding past changes in the characteristics of climate extremes forms an essential part of viable countermeasures to cope with climate-induced risks in a rapidly warming world. Thus, this paper endeavored to explore possible non-monotonic trend components in heavy rainfall events over the Central Highlands (Vietnam) by employing Şen's innovative trend analysis method in conjunction with the well-defined extreme rainfall indices. The outcomes show less spatially coherent trends in the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme rainfall events across the study area, and most analyzed indices exhibited non-monotonic trend forms. The overall trends in the intensity and frequency, represented by maximum 1-day, 5-day precipitation amount (Rx1day, Rx5day), very and extremely wet days (R95p and R99p), and the number of very and extremely heavy precipitation days (R20mm and R50mm), were characterized by significant increases at three or four sites. Concerning dry and wet extremes, observed increases in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decreases in consecutive wet days (CWD) were identified significantly simultaneously at three sites. There is high domination of significant increases in high-value subgroups of these indices. Several sites also exposed significantly increasing trend behaviors in these indices within all low-, medium-, and high-value subgroups, thereby implying the intensity and frequency have intensified over recent decades. This study also indicated potential linkages between annual peaks of several extreme rainfall indices, characterizing intensity, frequency, and wet duration, usually coincided with negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña events, while dry extremes were usually found during El Niño events based on correlation analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing Laspeyres index, Paasche's index, and Fisher's index under classical statistics cannot be applied when observations are indeterminate, imprecise, and uncertain. In this paper, the Laspeyres index, Paasche's index, and Fisher's index are introduced to deal with the data having neutrosophy. We present these indexes when indeterminacy is present in the data. To see the aggregate change in the production of rice crops due to climate change under an uncertain environment, data is collected from nine districts of Punjab, Pakistan. From the data and comparative studies, it is concluded that the proposed indexes are more informative, flexible, and suitable to be applied under indeterminate conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, extreme precipitation events have increased in frequency and intensity in Greece and across regions of the Mediterranean, with significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Therefore, extensive statistical analysis of the extreme rainfall characteristics on a dense temporal scale is crucial for areas with important economic activity. For this reason, this paper uses the daily precipitation measurements of four meteorological stations in a mining area of northeastern Chalkidiki peninsula from 2006 to 2021. Three statistical approaches were carried out to develop the best-fitting probability distribution for annual extreme precipitation conditions, using the maximum likelihood method for parameter estimation: the block maxima of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the peak over threshold of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on extreme value theory (EVT), and the gamma distribution. Based upon this fitting distribution procedure, return periods for the extreme precipitation values were calculated. Results indicate that EVT distributions satisfactorily fit extreme precipitation, with GPD being the most appropriate, and lead to similar conclusions regarding extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assessed the effects of climate change and planting date adjustment on spring and summer potato in South Korea for the period 2061–2090. The study applied the SUBSTOR-Potato model and outputs of 24 general circulation models to capture future variability in climate conditions for four shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway scenarios. Without planting date adjustment, tuber yield was projected to increase by approximately 20% for spring and summer potato, indicating that the CO2 fertilization effect would offset the adverse effect of rising temperature. The effect of planting date adjustment was significant only for spring potato, where overall climate change impact with the optimized planting date was approximately  +60%. For spring potato, the effects of rising temperature were bidirectional: temperature increases early in the year extended the growing season, whereas the higher temperature increases in June under the most severe climate change condition accelerated leaf senescence and reduced tuber bulking rate. Based on these results, different adaptation strategies could be established for spring potato for different climate change conditions. For example, developing frost-tolerant cultivars would continue to be recommended to plant earlier under the mild climate change conditions, whereas breeding mid-late maturity cultivars with high-temperature tolerance would be needed to delay senescence and enhance late tuber growth under the severe climate change conditions. Unlike spring potato, the breeding goal for summer potato of increasing high-temperature tolerance holds across all climate change conditions. Finally, these optimistic results should be interpreted with caution as the current model does not fully capture the effect of high-temperature episodes and the interactive effect between CO2 and temperature, which may reduce beneficial projected climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the primary challenges of current times is climate change, which has negative effects on any nation’s ability to pursue sustainable development. Key environmental and human living circumstances are impacted by climate change, which also affects the foundation for social and economic development. In this research, the key factors for climate change are obtained from the literature survey. Also, the integrated technique of the linear diophantine DEMATEL approach is initiated. The decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) has been widely used to solve MCDM problems. In addition, the Linear Diophantine Fuzzy Set (LDFS\documentclass[12pt]{minimal}\usepackage{amsmath}\usepackage{wasysym}\usepackage{amsfonts}\usepackage{amssymb}\usepackage{amsbsy}\usepackage{mathrsfs}\usepackage{upgreek}\setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt}\begin{document}$$\mathscr{L}\mathscr{D}\mathscr{F}\mathscr{S}$$\end{document}) has several advantages over other prevailing fuzzy sets, which permits the consideration of input variables that contain elements of uncertainty and ambiguity. The primary intent of this paper is to utilize our proposed approach to prioritize the criteria for climate change. As a result, the identification of the main criteria for climate change will be able to reduce future disasters related to climate change and lead to a sustainable future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X23070188 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comparative estimation of long-term trends in the variability of the largest Atlantic upwellings (Canary and Benguela) has been carried out in this paper. Satellite data on the sea surface temperature and three surface wind datasets prepared by different scientific groups have been used. The difference in the calculated absolute vertical velocities due to alongshore wind drift and horizontal wind-field nonuniformity reach tens of percent. All time series demonstrate the common tendency for the intensification of the upwellings from the 1980s to the early 1990s. This confirms published materials concerning the intensification of Canary and Benguela upwellings under global warming. However, since the late 1990s, the intensification of the upwellings has nearly ceased. This proves the highly important role of the natural interdecadal climate variations in the variability of intensity of generation of upwellings during the period of regular satellite measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global problem facing humanity today is the changing planetary climate. The Earth's northern regions play an important role in processes that affect the environment on a global scale and serve as indicators of global natural changes, especially climate change. The currently observed climate changes in the Arctic, such as rising air temperature, shrinking ice cover, increased river runoff, and permafrost degradation, have already shown that the Arctic is experiencing the greatest changes in comparison with other regions of the Earth. The response of the Arctic to all climatic change occurring on the planet is the strongest. The strong and rapid changes in the Arctic climate in recent years require comprehensive studies of their causes with assessment of the role of natural and anthropogenic factors. This paper analyzes the temporal changes in a number of Arctic climate indicators based on its main components (air temperature and oscillations in the atmospheric circulation, ocean waters, and ice cover extent) at time intervals of the 20th century, the period of anthropogenic impact on the climate, the last 2000 years, and the Holocene period, as well as the role of solar activity (cyclical changes and insolation) in climate change on the Earth. Trends in the variation in natural climate indicators are traced. Problems of prime importance for an understanding of the nature of current climate change and the main physical processes responsible for these changes are discussed. The goal of the study is to summarize the current understanding of Arctic climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Germany, Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Franco) is seen as a valuable species for future cultivation in times of climate change. Local seed production in seed stands and seed orchards may secure that local adaptation is transferred to the next generation, but small population sizes could lower genetic diversity and thus future adaptability. Here we analyse the transfer of genetic diversity from parent to offspring generation in four older German seed orchards. We detected low pollen contamination rates due to high levels of spatial isolation. Even with a relatively low number of 40 clones, seed orchard design with randomized and repeated planting of clones led to low selfing rates, and despite uneven parental contributions, the number of successful parents and the level of genetic intermixture were high enough to allow the transfer of an adequate part of the genetic diversity to the next generation. Larger numbers, however, might be needed to reliably conserve the entire genetic diversity over succeeding generations. Conclusions on the establishment of future seed orchards and regarding areas requiring further research are drawn at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this case study, we examine a broad range of impacts on tourism and recreation based on projected changes to Indiana’s climate. The direct impacts of climate change on Indiana include increases in the number of hot and extremely hot days each summer, fewer mild days, more rain, and less snow. Each direct impact will affect tourism and recreation. Additionally, a range of indirect impacts are anticipated, including climate-related changes in health issues, new infrastructure needs, changes in forests and other recreational areas, and shifting consumer attitudes toward travel and recreation. Although direct impacts are predictable, indirect impacts on the complex tourism system are harder to anticipate, and the tourism and recreation industry must build resilience to respond to future change. The paper concludes with recommendations for future study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Baño-Medina et al. (Configuration and Intercomparison of deep learning neural models for statistical downscaling. preprint, 2019) assessed the suitability of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for downscaling of temperature and precipitation over Europe using large-scale 'perfect' reanalysis predictors. They compared the results provided by CNNs with those obtained from a set of standard methods which have been traditionally used for downscaling purposes (linear and generalized linear models), concluding that CNNs are well suited for continental-wide applications. That analysis is extended here by assessing the suitability of CNNs for downscaling future climate change projections using Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs as predictors. This is particularly relevant for this type of "black-box" models, whose results cannot be easily explained based on physical reasons and could potentially lead to implausible downscaled projections due to uncontrolled extrapolation artifacts. Based on this premise, we analyze in this work the two key assumptions that are made in perfect prognosis downscaling: (1) the predictors chosen to build the statistical model should be well reproduced by GCMs and (2) the statistical model should be able to reliably extrapolate out of sample (climate change) conditions. As a first step to test the suitability of these models, the latter assumption is assessed here by analyzing how the CNNs affect the raw GCM climate change signal (defined as the difference, or delta, between future and historical climate). Our results show that, as compared to well-established generalized linear models (GLMs), CNNs yield smaller departures from the raw GCM outputs for the end of century, resulting in more plausible downscaling results for climate change applications. Moreover, as a consequence of the automatic treatment of spatial features, CNNs are also found to provide more spatially homogeneous downscaled patterns than GLMs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses three aspects of Bio Art: iconography, artificial life, and wetware. The development of models for innovation require hybrid practices which generate knowledge through epistemic experimental practices. The intersection of art and the biological sciences contain both scientific data as well as the visualization of its cultural imagination. In the Bio Art Lab at the School of Visual Arts, artists use the tools of science to make art. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper puts forward two claims about funding carbon capture and storage. The first claim is that there are moral justifications supporting strategic investment into CO2 storage from global and regional perspectives. One argument draws on the empirical evidence which suggests carbon capture and storage would play a significant role in a portfolio of global solutions to climate change; the other draws on Rawls’ notion of legitimate expectations and Moellendorf’s Anti-Poverty principle. The second claim is that where to pursue this strategic investment poses a morally non-trivial problem, with considerations like near-term global distributive justice and undermining legitimate expectations favouring investing in developing regions, especially in Asia, and considerations like long-term climate impacts and best uses of resources favouring investing in the relatively wealthy regions that have the best prospects for successful storage development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Value sensitive design (VSD) aims at creating better technology based on social and ethical values. However, VSD has not been applied to long-term and uncertain future developments, such as societal planning for climate change. This paper describes a new method that combines elements from VSD with scenario planning. The method was developed for and applied to a case study of adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) in southern Sweden in a series of workshops. The participants of the workshops found that the method provided a framework for discussing long-term planning, enabled identification of essential values, challenged established planning practices, helped find creative solutions, and served as a reminder that we do not know what will happen in the future. Finally, we reflect on the limitations of the method and suggest further research on how it can be improved for value sensitive design of adaptation measures to manage uncertain future sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is about the networks around the fires in the Brazilian Amazon forest during 2019 in tweets with the English hashtags #PrayForAmazonas, #ActForTheAmazon and #AmazonFire. We have studied 2517 tweets. Both the languages and the content of the tweets were taken into consideration to see who is assembled and what discursive elements are used in the framing. Our results indicate that the fires are framed as a global concern, beyond the Brazilian borders, especially as 'the lungs of the world'. The framing of responsibility for the fires is focused on president Bolsonaro, who is assembled in many tweets, while animals and indigenous people are framed as victims. We conclude that the tweets in English tend to produce more relationships in terms of likes and retweets, in comparison to tweets in Portuguese and Spanish. In addition, the role of politicians and celebrities seems critical in getting traction around a hashtag and making it trending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Development cooperation actors have been addressing climate change as a cross-cutting issue and investing in climate adaptation projects since the early 2000s. More recently, as concern has risen about the potential impacts of climate variability and change on human mobility, development cooperation actors have begun to design projects that intentionally address the drivers of migration, including climate impacts on livelihoods. However, to date, we know little about the development cooperation's role and function in responding to climate related mobility and migration. As such, the main aim of this paper is to outline the policy frameworks and approaches shaping development cooperation actors' engagement and to identify areas for further exploration and investment. First, we frame the concept of climate mobility and migration and discuss some applicable policy frameworks that govern the issue from various perspectives; secondly, we review the toolbox of approaches that development cooperation actors bring to climate mobility; and third, we discuss the implications of the current Covid-19 pandemic and identify avenues for the way forward. We conclude that ensuring safe and orderly mobility and the decent reception and long-term inclusion of migrants and displaced persons under conditions of more severe climate hazards, and in the context of rising nationalism and xenophobia, poses significant challenges. Integrated approaches across multiple policy sectors and levels of governance are needed. In addition to resources, development cooperation actors can bring data to help empower the most affected communities and regions and leverage their convening power to foster more coordinated approaches within and across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Story Makers Press (SMP) is a University-based publisher which co-constructs stories with under-represented groups of children in order to diversify representation in children's literature and disrupt the way adult perceptions of normality pattern children's literature (aetonormativity). In this paper we analyse six drama and creative writing workshops run by SMP with Czech and Slovak Roma children from an inner city primary school in the north of England to co-construct a story about climate change. Our analysis identifies how in developing the story, the children were often reluctant to draw upon their funds of knowledge relating to their Roma backgrounds, instead Westernising their protagonists and settings. We also explore how the children disrupt aetonormativity by interweaving magical elements into realistic narrative about climate change in order to establish a genre of magical realism. Finally, we identify how this genre of magical realism is problematic when considering stereotypical depictions of Roma characters in children's literature and how changes were made to our story in light of a critical race theory reading of the first draft. As well as helping SMP to refine its processes, this analysis suggests that minority groups such as Roma need to be able to draw upon more literary representations of Roma in order to shape their creative outputs and that the curriculum needs to focus on developing children's critical responses to the representation of minority ethnic groups in children's literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a scarcity of long-term groundwater hydrographs from sub-Saharan Africa to investigate groundwater sustainability, processes and controls. This paper presents an analysis of 21 hydrographs from semi-arid South Africa. Hydrographs from 1980 to 2000 were converted to standardised groundwater level indices and rationalised into four types (C1–C4) using hierarchical cluster analysis. Mean hydrographs for each type were cross-correlated with standardised precipitation and streamflow indices. Relationships with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were also investigated. The four hydrograph types show a transition of autocorrelation over increasing timescales and increasingly subdued responses to rainfall. Type C1 strongly relates to rainfall, responding in most years, whereas C4 notably responds to only a single extreme event in 2000 and has limited relationship with rainfall. Types C2, C3 and C4 have stronger statistical relationships with standardised streamflow than standardised rainfall. C3 and C4 changes are significantly (p < 0.05) correlated to the mean wet season ENSO anomaly, indicating a tendency for substantial or minimal recharge to occur during extreme negative and positive ENSO years, respectively. The range of different hydrograph types, sometimes within only a few kilometres of each other, appears to be a result of abstraction interference and cannot be confidently attributed to variations in climate or hydrogeological setting. It is possible that high groundwater abstraction near C3/C4 sites masks frequent small-scale recharge events observed at C1/C2 sites, resulting in extreme events associated with negative ENSO years being more visible in the time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current climate change is characterized by both long-term trends caused mainly by human activities and periodic and aperiodic variability caused by natural factors, which are not completely understood. Understanding the processes, that control climate change and variability, is essential from both theoretical and practical points of view. This paper aims at studying the effect of uncertainties in radiative feedbacks and climate system inertia on power spectrum of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) fluctuations. Randomly forced two-box energy balance model (EBM) is used as a main tool of this study. Sensitivity analysis is applied to determine how uncertainties in feedback and climate system inertia affect the power spectrum using the EBM. It was shown that in the high-frequency range of the power spectrum of GMST fluctuations, the influence of climate system inertia is more significant than the influence of feedbacks. In the low-frequency range, on the contrary, the influence of feedbacks on power spectrum exceeds the influence of climate inertia. Our confidence in the results obtained is based on the satisfactory agreement between the theoretical power spectrum derived from the EBM and the power spectrum obtained from observations and coupled climate models, including historical runs of the CMIP5 models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change policy has long been subject to influence by a wide variety of organizations. Despite their importance, the key role of public relations (PR) firms has long been overlooked in the climate political space. This paper provides an exploratory overview of the extent and nature of involvement of PR firms in climate political action by organizations in five sectors: Coal/Steel/Rail, Oil & Gas, Utilities, Renewable Energy, and the Environmental Movement. The analysis shows that the engagement of public relations firms by organizations in all of these sectors is widespread. In absolute terms, the Utility and Gas & Oil sectors engage the most PR firms, and the Environmental Movement engages the fewest. Organizations in the Utilities Sector show a statistically significant higher use of PR firms than the other sectors. Within each sector, engagement of PR firms is concentrated in a few firms, and the major oil companies and electrical-supply manufactures are the heaviest employers of such firms. PR firms generally specialize in representing specific sectors, and a few larger PR firms are widely engaged in climate and energy political activity. PR firms developed campaigns that frequently relied on third-party groups to engage with the public, criticize opponents, and serve as the face of an advertising campaign. Our analysis shows that PR firms are a key organizational actor in climate politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. The GWP-scaling method is tested using methane as an example. The temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived, where the net-zero point is identified with the maximum of GHG forcing. This shows that, to meet the Article 2 warming goal, the net-zero point for GHG emissions needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific problems in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]