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The rapid and precise acquisition of the agricultural plastic greenhouse (PG) spatial distribution is essential in understanding PG usage and degradation, ensuring agricultural production, and protecting the ecological environment and human health. It is of great practical significance to realize the effective utilization of remote sensing images in the agricultural field and improve the extraction accuracy of PG remote sensing data. In this study, Landsat operational land imager (OLI) remote sensing images were used as data sources, and Shandong Province, which has the largest PG distribution in China, was selected as the study area. PGs in the study area were identified by means of contour recognition, feature set construction of the spatial structure, and machine learning. The results were as follows. (1) Through an optimal segmentation parameter approach, it was determined that the optimal segmentation scale for size, shape, and compactness should be set at 20, 0.8, and 0.5, respectively, which significantly improved PG contour recognition. (2) Among the 72 feature variables for PG spatial recognition, the number of features and classification accuracy showed a trend of first gradually increasing and then decreasing. Among them, fifteen feature variables, including the mean of bands 2 and 5; six index features (NDWI, GNDVI, SWIR1_NIR, NDVI, and PMLI); two shape features, the density and shape index; and two texture features, the contrast and standard deviation, played an important role. (3) According to the recall rate, accuracy rate, and F-value of three machine learning methods, random forest (RDF), CART decision tree (CART), and support vector machine (SVM), SVM had the best classification effect. The classification method described in this paper can accurately extract continuous plastic greenhouses through remote sensing images and provide a reference for the application of facility agriculture and non-point-source pollution control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil salinization is a critical and global environmental problem. Effectively mapping and monitoring the spatial distribution of soil salinity is essential. The main aim of this work was to map soil salinity in Shandong Province located on the Yellow River Delta of China using Sentinel-1/2 remote sensing data and digital elevation model (DEM) data, coupled with soil sampling data, and combined with four regression models: support vector regression (SVR), stepwise multi-regression (SMR), partial least squares regression (PLSR) and random forest regression (RFR). For these purposes, 60 soil samples were collected during the field survey conducted from 9 to 14 October 2019, corresponding to the Sentinel-1/2 and DEM data. Then we established a soil salinity and feature dataset based on the sampled data and the features extracted from Sentinel-1/2 and DEM data. This study adopted the feature importance of the RF model to screen all features. The results showed that the CRSI index made the greatest contribution in retrieving soil salinity in this region. In this paper, 18 sampling points were used to validate and compare the performance of the four models. The results reveal that, compared with the other regression models, the PLSR model has the best performance (R2 = 0.66, and RMSE = 1.30). Finally, the PLSR method was used to predict the spatial distribution of soil salinity in the Yellow River Delta. We concluded that the model can be used effectively for the quantitative estimation of soil salinity and provides a useful tool for ecological construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Timely and effective access to agricultural land-change information is of great significance for the government when formulating agricultural policies. Due to the vast area of Shandong Province, the current research on agricultural land use in Shandong Province is very limited. The classification accuracy of the current classification methods also needs to be improved. In this paper, with the support of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform and based on Landsat 8 time series image data, a multiple machine learning algorithm was used to obtain the spatial variation distribution information of agricultural land in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2020. Firstly, a high-quality cloud-free synthetic Landsat 8 image dataset for Shandong Province from 2016 to 2020 was obtained using GEE. Secondly, the thematic index series was calculated to obtain the phenological characteristics of agricultural land, and the time periods with significant differences in terms of water, agricultural land, artificial surface, woodland and bare land were selected for classification. Feature information, such as texture features, spectral features and terrain features, was constructed, and the random forest method was used to select and optimize the features. Thirdly, the random forest, gradient boosting tree, decision tree and ensemble learning algorithms were used for classification, and the accuracy of the four classifiers was compared. The information on agricultural land changes was extracted and the causes were analyzed. The results show the following: (1) the multi-spatial index time series method is more accurate than the single thematic index time series when obtaining phenological characteristics; (2) the ensemble learning method is more accurate than the single classifier. The overall classification accuracy of the five agricultural land-extraction results in Shandong Province obtained by the ensemble learning method was above 0.9; (3) the annual decrease in agricultural land in Shandong Province from 2016 to 2020 was related to the increase in artificial land-surface area and urbanization rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this task. However, for different data series, the performance of these models varies. Hepatitis E, as an acute liver disease, has been a major public health problem. Which model is more appropriate for predicting the incidence of hepatitis E? In this paper, three different methods are used and the performance of the three methods is compared. Methods: Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA), support vector machine(SVM) and long short-term memory(LSTM) recurrent neural network were adopted and compared. ARIMA was implemented by python with the help of statsmodels. SVM was accomplished by matlab with libSVM library. LSTM was designed by ourselves with Keras, a deep learning library. To tackle the problem of overfitting caused by limited training samples, we adopted dropout and regularization strategies in our LSTM model. Experimental data were obtained from the monthly incidence and cases number of hepatitis E from January 2005 to December 2017 in Shandong province, China. We selected data from July 2015 to December 2017 to validate the models, and the rest was taken as training set. Three metrics were applied to compare the performance of models, including root mean square error(RMSE), mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) and mean absolute error(MAE). Results: By analyzing data, we took ARIMA(1, 1, 1), ARIMA(3, 1, 2) as monthly incidence prediction model and cases number prediction model, respectively. Cross-validation and grid search were used to optimize parameters of SVM. Penalty coefficient C and kernel function parameter g were set 8, 0.125 for incidence prediction, and 22, 0.01 for cases number prediction. LSTM has 4 nodes. Dropout and L2 regularization parameters were set 0.15, 0.001, respectively. By the metrics of RMSE, we obtained 0.022, 0.0204, 0.01 for incidence prediction, using ARIMA, SVM and LSTM. And we obtained 22.25, 20.0368, 11.75 for cases number prediction, using three models. For MAPE metrics, the results were 23.5%, 21.7%, 15.08%, and 23.6%, 21.44%, 13.6%, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. For MAE metrics, the results were 0.018, 0.0167, 0.011 and 18.003, 16.5815, 9.984, for incidence prediction and cases number prediction, respectively. Conclusions: Comparing ARIMA, SVM and LSTM, we found that nonlinear models(SVM, LSTM) outperform linear models(ARIMA). LSTM obtained the best performance in all three metrics of RSME, MAPE, MAE. Hence, LSTM is the most suitable for predicting hepatitis E monthly incidence and cases number. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting plays a significant role in the operation of power systems. Recently, deep learning has been generally employed in short-term load forecasting, primarily in the extraction of the characteristics of digital information in a single dimension without taking into account of the impact of external variables, particularly non-digital elements on load characteristics. In this paper, we propose a joint MFF-SAM-GCN to realize short-term load forecasting. First, we utilize a Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network and One-Dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1D-CNN) in parallel connection to form a multi-feature fusion (MFF) framework, which can extract spatiotemporal correlation features of the load data. In addition, we introduce a Self-Attention Mechanism (SAM) to further enhance the feature extraction capability of the 1D-CNN network. Then with the deployment of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), the external non-digital features such as weather, strength, and direction of wind, etc., are extracted. Moreover, the generated weight matrices are incorporated into the load features to enhance feature recognition ability. Finally, we exploit Bayesian Optimization (BO) to find the optimal hyperparameters of the model to further improve the prediction accuracy. The simulation is taken from our proposed model and six benchmark schemes by using the bus load dataset of the Shandong Open Data Network, China. The results show that the RMSE of our proposed MFF-SAM-GCN model is 0.0284, while the SMAPE is 9.453%,the MBE is 0.025, and R-squared is 0.989, which is better than the selected three traditional machine learning methods and the three deep learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study represents the first application of Sentinel-2 remote sensing imagery and model fusion techniques to assess the chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration and turbidity in Nansi Lake, Shandong Province, China, from 2016 to 2022. First, we innovatively employed the stacking method to fuse eight fundamentally different Machine Learning (ML) models, each utilising 20 and 17 feature bands, resulting in the development of a robust algorithm for estimating the Chla concentration and turbidity in Nansi Lake. The results demonstrate that the Stacking Model has achieved outstanding theoretical generalisation capability. Second, the sensitivity of the model to extreme value data in the sample was quantified, and we found that compared with extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), the optimal performance of the Stacking Model improved by 12%, to some extent, it solved the problem of high-value underestimation and low-value overestimation. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) results revealed that features such as Three Bands, Enhanced Three, R rs 492 / R rs 560 , R rs 705 / R rs 665 play a crucial role in estimating Chla concentration. For the turbidity estimation, the Normalized Difference Turbidity Index (NDTI), R rs 705 + R rs 560 , R rs 865 - R rs 740 made significant contributions. Finally, we utilised the Stacking Model to create spatiotemporal maps of the Chla concentration and turbidity in Nansi Lake from 2016 to 2022. We analysed the causes of the water quality changes and explored the driving factors. Compared with previous studies, this paper provides a new idea for the monitoring of lake water quality parameters by using the high resolution of Sentinel-2 image and the high precision of model fusion technology, these results can provide a reference for similar water area research and decision-making support for environment-related departments. • Innovatively fusion 8 algorithms with different principles, a robust algorithm suitable for estimating Chla and turbidity has been developed. • The SHAP was used to identify the key variables for Chla and turbidity of the lake. • Remote sensing mapping of Chla and turbidity in Nansi Lake, for the years 2016-2022 on quarterly and annual bases. • We analysed the spatiotemporal variations in the water quality of Nansi Lake, from 2016 to 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surrounded by the Shandong Peninsula, the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea possess vast marine energy resources. An analysis of actual meteorological data from these regions indicates significant seasonality and intra-day uncertainty in wind and photovoltaic power generation. The challenge of scheduling to leverage the complementary characteristics of various renewable energy sources for maintaining grid stability is substantial. In response, we have integrated wave energy with offshore photovoltaic and wind power generation and propose a day-ahead and intra-day multi-time-scale rolling optimization scheduling strategy for the complementary dispatch of these three energy sources. Using real meteorological data from this maritime area, we employed a CNN-LSTM neural network to predict the power generation and load demand of the area on both day-ahead 24 h and intra-day 1 h time scales, with the DDPG algorithm applied for refined electricity management through rolling optimization scheduling of the forecast data. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed strategy effectively meets load demands through complementary scheduling of wave power, wind power, and photovoltaic power generation based on the climatic characteristics of the Bohai and Yellow Sea regions, reducing the negative impacts of the seasonality and intra-day uncertainty of these three energy sources on the grid. Additionally, compared to the day-ahead scheduling strategy alone, the day-ahead and intra-day rolling optimization scheduling strategy achieved a reduction in system costs by 16.1% and 22% for a typical winter day and a typical summer day, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Properly managing the relationship between food security, ecological protection, and urbanization, and coordinating the trade-offs among these three factors for land demand are extremely important for environmental management and sustainable development. In this study, we attempt to analyze the state of land use trade-offs from a dynamic perspective in terms of both potential and efficiency. We have innovatively proposed a new land use trade-off analysis framework integrating the Estimation System for Land Productivity (ESLP) model, machine learning algorithms, ecosystem service value assessment, and spatial analysis method. By applying the framework, the potential and efficiency of the three land use functions of urban development, ecological protection, and agricultural production on the Huang-Huai-Hai (HHH) Plain were comprehensively estimated, and the trade-off relationship between the three land use functions was identified. The results showed a prominent conflict between urban development and agricultural production (around 8%) on the HHH Plain, especially in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration and the southern Jiangsu urban agglomeration. In the mountainous areas, such as northern Hebei and central Shandong, there was an obvious trade-off between ecological land and agriculture land. Most cities had a trade-off between ecological land and urban land (approximately 6% of the study area), but it was relatively more relaxed in comparison. Finally, we found that on the HHH Plain, where land resources are fiercely competitive, spatial planning and land resource control depend not only on the suitability or potential of the land unit, but also on whether the efficiency of land use has reached an appropriate range. The smart way to use land resources is to scientifically trade-off different land use functions and improve the efficiency of land use to achieve maximum benefit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to quickly and accurately predict borehole spontaneous combustion danger and avoid borehole spontaneous combustion fires, a borehole spontaneous combustion prediction model combining the Hunger Games search optimization algorithm (HGS) and Random Forest (RF) algorithm was introduced. The number of trees and the minimum number of leaf nodes in RF were optimized by HGS. Based on the data obtained from the temperature rise experiment of spontaneous combustion characteristics in a Shandong mine laboratory, O2, CO, C2H4, CO/∆O2 and C2H4/C2H6 were selected as the input indexes for the prediction of borehole spontaneous combustion, and the spontaneous combustion temperature was selected as the output indexes to train the built model. The prediction performance and accuracy of the model were evaluated using four indexes: the mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). At the same time, the prediction results of the HGS-RF model were compared with those of the RF model, Sparrow search algorithm (SSA) optimization RF model, particle swarm optimization RF model (PSO) optimization RF model and quantum particle swarm optimization RF model (QPSO) optimization. The results showed that the MAE of the RF, SSA-RF, PSO-RF, QPSO-RF and HGS-RF model samples were 17.541, 15.7752, 12.5903, 6.8594 and 6.6921, respectively. MAPE was 13.81%, 10.9766%, 9.6802%, 4.5731% and 5.1536%, respectively. RMSE values were 21.5646, 15.2017, 17.0091, 11.9879 and 12.1691, respectively. The R2 values were 0.9043, 0.9315, 0.9266, 0.9668, and 0.9717, respectively. At the same time, the reliability of the HGS-RF model was supplemented by taking the test data of the Zhengjia1204 coal mining face as an example. Finally, the model was applied to the prediction of borehole spontaneous combustion in the Jinniu Coal Mine, Shanxi Province. The prediction results show that the HGS-RF model can predict the spontaneous combustion temperature of different boreholes quickly and accurately. The results show that the HGS-RF model is more universal and stable than other models, indicating that the HGS-RF model is more suitable for the prediction of borehole spontaneous combustion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concerning the vision of achieving carbon neutral and peak carbon goals, wind energy is extremely important as a renewable and clean energy source. However, existing research ignores the implicit features of the data preprocessing technique and the role of the internal mechanism of the optimization algorithm, making it difficult to achieve high-accuracy prediction. To fill this gap, this study proposes a wind speed forecasting model that combines data denoising techniques, optimization algorithms, and machine learning algorithms. The model discusses the important parameters in the data decomposition technique, determines the best parameter values by comparing the model's performance, and then decomposes and reconstructs the wind speed time series. In addition, a novel optimization algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the machine learning algorithm using a waiting strategy and an aggressive strategy to improve the effectiveness of the model. Several control experiments were designed and implemented using 10-min wind speed data from three sites in Penglai, Shandong Province. Based on the numerical comparison results and the discussion of the proposed model, it is concluded that the developed model can obtain high accuracy and reliability of wind speed prediction in the short term relative to other comparative models and can have further applications in wind power plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use is a process that turns a piece of land's natural ecosystem into an artificial one. The mix of plant and man-made covers on the Earth's surface is known as land cover. Land use is the primary external force behind change in land cover, and land cover has an impact on how land use is carried out, resulting in a synergistic interaction between the two at the Earth's surface. In China's Shandong Peninsula city cluster, Dongying is a significant coastal port city. It serves as the administrative hub for the Yellow River Delta and is situated in Shandong Province, China's northeast. The changes in its urban land use and land cover in the future are crucial to understanding. This research suggests a prediction approach that combines a patch-generation land use simulation (PLUS) model and long-term short-term memory (LSTM) deep learning algorithm to increase the accuracy of predictions of future land use and land cover. The effectiveness of the new method is demonstrated by the fact that the average inaccuracy of simulating any sort of land use in 2020 is around 5.34%. From 2020 to 2030, 361.41 km2 of construction land is converted to cropland, and 424.11 km2 of cropland is converted to water. The conversion areas between water and unused land and cropland are 211.47 km2 and 148.42 km2, respectively. The area of construction land and cropland will decrease by 8.38% and 3.64%, respectively, while the area of unused land, water, and grassland will increase by 5.53%, 2.44%, and 0.78%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to investigate the water dissipation pattern from peanut pods under natural drying conditions after harvest. The Shandong peanut Luhua 22 was used to examine the effects of varying moisture content, bulk density, and porosity on the relative permittivity of the peanut at a signal frequency of 5.8 GHz. The peanut dielectric constant, porosity, and bulk density were used as inputs and peanut kernel moisture as outputs. Support vector regression (SVR), extreme learning machine (ELM), sparrow search algorithm-support vector regression (SSA-SVR), and sparrow search algorithm-extreme learning machine (SSA-ELM) were used to create a prediction model of peanut kernel moisture content. The results show that the water content of peanut kernels decreased in a fast and then slow manner throughout the drying process and that the water content of kernels was stable at 5–8% at the end of drying. The relative permittivity of peanut kernels increased with an increase in the water content and bulk density but decreased with an increase in porosity. The developed SVR, ELM, SSA-SVR, and SSA-ELM water-content prediction models were validated and analyzed in this study, with the model test set coefficients of determination of 0.936, 0.949,0.984, and 0.994, respectively. In comparison to SVR, ELM, and SSA-SVR, the SSA-ELM root mean square error was reduced by 0.0080, 0.0060, and 0.0012, respectively. According to the findings, the ELM neural network model, which is based on the optimization of the SSA, has an improved prediction accuracy. This prediction model provides a theoretical foundation for the variations in peanut seed moisture content during the natural drying process after harvesting peanuts in Shandong, which will be useful for future peanut storage and transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind speed prediction has an important impact on the planning, economic operation and safe maintenance of wind power systems. However, the high volatility and intermittency of wind speed make it difficult to predict accurately. To improve the prediction accuracy, we developed a hybrid multistep wind speed prediction model named EWP‐CS‐RELM. In this model, a secondary decomposition technique of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and wavelet packet transform (WPT) is used, and it is called the EWP decomposition technique. This decomposition technique can achieve an adaptive processing of the data and accurately extract the characteristic components of the signal, avoiding the occurrence of pattern overlap and reducing the mutual interference between components. At the same time, the high and low‐frequency parts of the complex signal (component) can be decomposed into different frequency bands, and the corresponding frequency band can be selected adaptively to match the signal spectrum. The subsequence obtained after EWP decomposition is then predicted using a regularised extreme learning machine (RELM) optimised by the cuckoo search (CS) algorithm with strong global search ability to obtain the results. The hybrid prediction model is validated using four seasons of wind speed data from two wind farms in Shandong, China, and compared with seven other prediction models. Simulation results illustrate that the EWP‐CS‐RELM model outperforms the other seven models with the smallest statistical errors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A machine-learning-based method is proposed to predict the coastal algal blooms with environmental factors. • We perform the experiments on the real data of China and United States, respectively to identify key features. • The phytoplankton concentration can be predicted one or two weeks in advance by the GBDT model. Harmful algal blooms are a major type of marine disaster that endangers the marine ecological environment and human health. Since the algal bloom is a complex nonlinear process with time characteristics, traditional statistical methods often cannot provide good predictions. In this paper, we propose a method based on machine learning with the aim to predict the occurrence of algal blooms by environmental parameters. The features related to algal bloom growth have been experimented for achieving a good prediction of algal concentrations by a combination strategy. We validate the prediction performance on two real datasets from two locations in US and China, i.e., Scripps Pier, California and Sishili Bay, Shandong, respectively. The models and feature subsets have been selected to complete the missing data and predict the phytoplankton concentration. The results demonstrate the efficiency of our method in the short-term prediction of concentrations by selecting appropriate features. The comparison studies prove the advantage of our developed machine learning method. The importance of every features for the prediction performance reveals crucial factors for the outbreak of harmful algal blooms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]