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The accurate prediction of flight delays is of great significance to airports, airlines and passengers. This paper presents a causal flight delay prediction model developed for a single airport. A long short‐term memory network of delay prediction with an attention mechanism (LSTM‐AM) is established to predict flight delays and analyse their primary causes. In this model, the direct and indirect factors related to delays are comprehensively considered. LSTM‐AM can focus on input data combined with the attention vector to capture the critical time points, which can make the prediction more accurate. The model's performance is verified by actual operational data of Beijing International Airport, one of the busiest airports in the world. Experimental results show that LSTM‐AM has better prediction accuracy than baseline algorithms such as some machine learning methods and deep learning methods. The mean absolute error of LSTM‐AM is about 8.15 min on the test dataset. The study found that using the predicted results of this paper to release delayed information in advance can effectively alleviate the nervousness of passengers. The critical time point captured by LSTM‐AM combined with runway and apron flow control can reduce or eliminate delays of one flight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the Beijing-Tianjin regional comprehensive transportation system, the flow of air passengers between multiple airports in the region is more frequent. The fundamental reason for the flow of air passengers is that there are differences in the level of service quality provided by airports and airlines in the region. Passengers' choice intention is the consumption and purchase decision of passengers on aviation services. By constructing a Logit model, this paper analyzes the degree of influence on the travel choice intention of air passengers in the Beijing-Tianjin region from five aspects: individual passenger demographic characteristics, travel purpose, ground transportation characteristics, airport operation capacity, and airport soft power. Passengers can effectively predict the choice of air travel mode in the Beijing-Tianjin region. The results show that Beijing Capital Airport is favored by business travelers; Beijing Daxing International Airport is favored by travelers because of its fast security check-through speed; for Tianjin Binhai International Airport, the convenience of getting in and out of the airport by car and the speed of airport security check-through are two significant factors. Indicators do not affect the selection of airports; reasonable follow-up arrangements when airport flights are delayed are the only significant but negatively correlated factor; the research design results provide new ideas for the analysis of passenger travel mode selection behavior in multiple airport areas, enriching the data-driven research on transportation choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analyzing and modeling passenger demand dynamic, which has important implications on the management and the operation in the entire aviation industry, are deemed to be a tough challenge. Air passenger demand, however, exhibits consistently complex non-linearity and non-stationarity. To capture more precisely the aforementioned complex behavior, this paper proposes a hybrid approach VMD-ARMA/KELM-KELM for the short-term forecasting, which consists of variational mode decomposition (VMD), autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) and kernel extreme learning machine (KELM). First, VMD is adopted to decompose the original data into several mode functions so as to reduce their complexity. Then, the unit root test (ADF test) is employed to classify all the modes into the stable and unstable series. Meanwhile, the ARMA and the KELM models are used to forecast both the stationary and non-stationary components, respectively. Lastly, the final result is integrated by another KELM model incorporating the forecasting results of all components. In order to prove and verify the feasibility and robustness of the proposed approach, the passenger demands of Beijing, Guangzhou and Pudong airports are introduced to test the performance. Also, the experimental results show that the novel approach does have a more obviously advantage than other benchmark models regarding both accuracy and robustness analysis. Therefore, this approach can be utilized as a convincing tool for the air passenger demand forecasting. • Propose a new hybrid approach to forecast the air passenger demand. • Analyze the internal characteristics of time series by VMD and ADF test. • The proposed approach combines the abilities of linear and nonlinear models. • Three real airports data are used to assess the forecasting performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]