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From 1990 to 2017, the number of vehicles in China increased sharply from 5 million to 310 million, and vehicle emissions became one of the major sources of air pollution. Among the main sources of PM 2.5 in Beijing, the contributions from vehicle sources increased from 5.6% (2000) to 31.1% (2012) to 45% (2017). In 2010, the CO, hydrocarbon (HC), NO x , and particulate matter (PM) emissions of yellow-label vehicles (YLVs) accounted for 46.1%, 47.9%, 63.1% and 86.1% of the total emissions from on-road vehicles. In recent years, China has been implementing a YLV scrappage subsidy policy to control air pollution, and this policy has cost several hundred billion yuan nationwide. However, China has not evaluated the costs and benefits of the policy. Many people question whether the YLV scrappage subsidy policy is worthwhile, but all the stakeholders involved complicate the process of accurately evaluating the true value of the policy. In this study, we evaluated and compared the costs and benefits of the policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region based on 1.362 million YLVs from 2008 to 2015. Because of the implementation of the policy, the PM 2.5 , PM 10 , NO x , CO and HC emissions in the BTH region decreased by 16.46, 18.12, 174.44, 669.11, and 91.64 kt, respectively, in 2008–2015. The results show that the policy played an important role in reducing pollutant emissions and improving environmental quality in the BTH region. The costs, benefits, and net benefits of the policy were 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan , respectively. The cost-benefit ratio in the BTH region was 1:2.49; at the city scale, Beijing ranked first (1:7.27), and the cost-benefit ratios of Tianjin and Hebei Province were 1:2.06 and 1:1.14, respectively. Of the 13 cities in the BTH region, Beijing had the highest net benefits, amounting to 16.43 billion yuan , while Handan City has the lowest net benefits, amounting to −0.58 billion yuan. The results may provide scientific support for the promotion of older vehicle and diesel vehicle scrappage subsidy policies, the development of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and effective environmental decision-making in China. • Based on net number of scrappage YLVs, net benefits of the policy are calculated. • This paper estimates costs and benefits of the policy based on 1.27 million YLVs. • The costs, benefits, and net benefits are 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan. • The results help China promote vehicle scrappage subsidy policy on a large scale. • The results promote the development of the cost-benefit analysis in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of precursors' concentrations and meteorological conditions on the emerging ozone pollution problem in China has received wide attention, especially after the releasing of the Air Pollution Prevention Control and Action Plan (APPC) since 2013. With the decreasing trend of PM 2.5 nationwide, the effect of the strict control measures on increasing ozone variation has less been studied due to the challenge of complexity of nonlinear relationship among a number of factors on ozone formation. This paper evaluated the influence of both ozone precursors and meteorology on maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8) ozone at two urban sites and one rural site in Hebei province, China, from 2013 to 2017, by using a combined application of Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter and artificial neural network (ANN) model. Results showed that R2 was 0.80 between the measured and the simulated MDA8 ozone concentration when using meteorological factors and precursors' concentrations as input variables for ANN model. However, ANN model has limitation in estimating O 3 concentration peaks. The values of threat score (TS), probability of detection (POD) and false alarm rate (FAR) for MDA8 ozone concentration were 39%, 44% and 21%, respectively, throughout three studied sites in Hebei province. The annual average percentage change of precursor-related ozone was 0.67% from 2014 to 2017. Temperature, atmospheric pressure and boundary layer height were shown to account for 64% of the variability in long-term ozone levels. Ozone variation in Hebei province was reproduced mainly by meteorological parameters, and the contribution from precursors' concentration was smaller during the years when the APPC was implemented. [Display omitted] • Ozone level was estimated based on precursors' level and meteorological factors. • The ambient ozone concentration estimated by ANN model was acceptable. • Meteorology dominates the ozone variation in 2013–2017 in Hebei province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan in China since 2013 has profoundly altered the ambient pollutants in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region. Here we show observations of substantially increased O3 concentrations (about 30 %) and a remarkable increase in the ratio of organic carbon (OC) to elemental carbon (EC) in BTH during the autumn from 2013 to 2015, revealing an enhancement in atmospheric oxidizing capacity (AOC) and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. To explore the impacts of increasing AOC on the SOA formation, a severe air pollution episode from 3 to 8 October 2015 with high O3 and PM 2.5 concentrations is simulated using the WRF-Chem model. The model performs reasonably well in simulating the spatial distributions of PM 2.5 and O3 concentrations over BTH and the temporal variations in PM 2.5 , O3 , NO2 , OC, and EC concentrations in Beijing compared to measurements. Sensitivity studies show that the change in AOC substantially influences the SOA formation in BTH. A sensitivity case characterized by a 31 % O3 decrease (or 36 % OH decrease) reduces the SOA level by about 30 % and the SOA fraction in total organic aerosol by 17 % (from 0.52 to 0.43, dimensionless). Spatially, the SOA decrease caused by reduced AOC is ubiquitous in BTH, but the spatial relationship between SOA concentrations and the AOC is dependent on the SOA precursor distribution. Studies on SOA formation pathways further show that when the AOC is reduced, the SOA from oxidation and partitioning of semivolatile primary organic aerosol (POA) and co-emitted intermediate volatile organic compounds (IVOCs) decreases remarkably, followed by those from anthropogenic and biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Meanwhile, the SOA decrease in the irreversible uptake of glyoxal and methylglyoxal on the aerosol surfaces is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]