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Flash droughts, characterized by rapid onset and development, present significant challenges to agriculture and climate mitigation strategies. Operational drought monitoring systems, based on precipitation, soil moisture deficits, or temperature anomalies, often fall short in timely detection of these events, underscoring the need for customized identification and monitoring indices that account for the rapidity of flash drought onset. Recognizing this need, this paper introduces a global flash drought inventory from 1990 to 2021 derived using the Soil Moisture Volatility Index (SMVI). Our work expands the application of the SMVI methodology, previously focused on the United States, to a global scale, providing a tool for understanding and predicting these rapidly developing phenomena. The dataset encompasses detailed event characteristics, including onset, duration, and severity, across diverse climate zones. By integrating atmospheric variables through their impact on soil moisture, the inventory offers a platform for analyzing the drivers and impacts of flash droughts, and serves as a large, consistent dataset for use in training and evaluating flash drought prediction models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This bibliographic article on Drought and Water Level examined the relationship between organizations, nations, institutions, authors, references, and publishers. It examined 742 papers from Web of Science at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology's. The total annual publication volume of articles was increased steadily from 2012 to 2021, with China and the United States ranking first and second in terms of publication volume and citations but in quality Switzerland and England were top-level. Institutional-partnership analyses indicated disparities in network density and connections, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (2012) receiving the highest citations and degrees. The document co-citation analysis (DCA) network was created to improve understanding of the frequency and amplitude of bursts of various publications in separate clusters. The most cited work was J Hydrol (2012), with 302 citations. The analytical tool from CiteSpace collected high-frequency keywords and performed co-occurrence, grouping, and emerging word recognition. Gorges Dam is the most crowded cluster, followed by drought stress. The greatest burst duration and most significant phrase is reservoir (2019), followed by "water quality," which has a 5 year burst period. Estuaries perform important functions such as water purification and coastal. "Reservoir, water quality, restoration, phytoplankton, temperature, wetland, time series, diversity and carbon dioxide" are the most important terms, while "climate change, drought, water level, impact, growth, variability, response, dynamics, management and model" are the most frequently used keywords. In terms of citations, references, and academic influence, Zhang Q. (2012), the R Core team (2014), and Jappen E. (2015) were the top three contributors. Cook, ER (2013), and Allen, R.G. (2019) ranked first and second in terms of frequency, respectively. In this review work, significant information gaps were discovered in the areas of microbiological dynamics, environmental variables, fen peat incubation, lake water, drought risk reduction, biological ecology, lake acidification, salinity variations, and attribution. Future researchers should focus on these and similar topics, while Chinese and USA authors should concentrate on article quality rather than publishing numbers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future risk for droughts and water shortages calls for substantial efforts by authorities to adapt at local levels. Understanding their perception of drought hazards, risk and vulnerability can help to identify drivers of and barriers to drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level. This paper presents a novel interdisciplinary drought case study in Sweden that integrates soft data from a nationwide survey among more than 100 local practitioners and hard data based on hydrological measurements to provide a holistic assessment of the links between drought severity and the perceived levels of drought severity, impacts, preparedness, and management for two consecutive drought events. The paper highlights challenges for drought risk planning and management in a changing climate at the local level and elaborates on how improved understanding of local practitioners to plan for climate change adaptation can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agricultural sectors worldwide are under direct threat from climate change conditions. In Iran, agricultural production has decreased due to droughts originating in an increase in annual maximum temperatures—with the corresponding increase in crop respiration and evapotranspiration—and a decrease in accumulated precipitation. Based on a static computable general equilibrium approach, this paper reports implication for the Iranian economy from the effects of climate change on agriculture––as modeled through three scenarios relying on assumptions about the magnitude of continued reduction in total agricultural production. Reductions of 6%, 12%, and 18% in total agricultural production reasonably cover the range of impacts that climate change is expected to impose on the Iranian agricultural sector––under the assumption that no behavioral adaptations or policy interventions are in place. Our simulations suggest that effects on the Iranian economy imply a reduction in GDP ranging between 3.7 and 6.3%. In addition, 5–17% of labor moves away from the agriculture sector––this labor relocation occurs due to declining agriculture incomes. Findings illustrate that climate change will reduce households' consumption and income in all economic sectors, particularly among rural households. We suggest that policies in Iran should focus on improving cultivation methods to save water resources and alleviate the expected effects of climate change. The current study's outcomes are helpful for policymakers, especially in countries with water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Ecological environment is the essential material basis of human survival and connects regional economy with socially sustainable development. However, climate changes characterized by global climate warming have caused a series of ecological environmental problems in recent years. Few studies have discussed various climate factors affecting the ecological environment, and the spatial non-stationary effects of different climate factors on the ecological environment are still unclear. Dynamically monitoring ecological environment changes in fragile areas and identifying its climate-driving mechanism are essential for ecological protection and environmental repair. Taking Zoige Plateau as a case, this paper simulated the eco-environmental quality during 1987–2020 using remote sensing data, utilized Geodetector method to identify the contributions of various climate drivers to ecological environment quality, and then adopted the Geographically Weighted Regression model to explore the spatial non-stationary impacts of climate factors on ecological environment quality. The results showed that the ecological quality in the middle regions of the Zoige Plateau was slightly better than in the surrounding marginal areas. For the whole area of Zoige Plateau, the average ecological environment quality index was 54.92, 53.99, 56.17, 57.88, 63.44, 56.93, 59.43, and 59.76 in 1987, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2016 and 2020, respectively, which indicated that eco-environmental quality witnessed several fluctuations during the study period but showed a generally increasing trend. Among five climate factors, the temperature was the dominant climate factor affecting the ecological environment quality (q value: 0.11–0.19), sunshine duration (0.03–0.17), wind speed (0.03–0.11), and precipitation (0.03–0.08) were the main climate drivers, while the explanatory power of relative humidity to ecological environment quality was relatively small. Such various climate factors impacting the ecological environment quality demonstrated distinct spatial non-stationary and the range of driving impact varied with time. Temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity promoted ecological environment quality in most regions (regression coefficients > 0), while precipitation mainly had a negative inhibitory impact (regression coefficients < 0). Meanwhile, the greater impacts of these five climate factors were concentrated in high-elevation regions of the south and west or the northern areas. The appropriate enhancement of climate warming and air humidity was beneficial to the improvement of the ecological environment, but the excessive precipitation would result in landslides and exhibit inhibition of vegetation growth. Therefore, selecting cold-tolerant herbs and shrubs, and strengthening climate monitoring and early warning systems (such as drought and excessive precipitation) are essential for ecological restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is a natural phenomenon that occurred in Central Europe in the past, but it is becoming a more serious problem due to the changes in its occurrence and intensity related to climate change. The main aim of this paper was to determine changes in air temperature and precipitation amounts in Slovakia from 1931 to 2020 and to identify changes in drought occurrence and intensity using the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Cluster analysis was used to determine regions with similar drought occurrences. For each of the identified five clusters, drought characteristics were determined and compared between two reference periods 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. While a decrease in the number of months with SPEI-1 below − 1 was observed in autumn, spring and summer months showed a drying tendency. Overall, we can say that we observed a shift in drought occurrence from autumn and winter months to spring and summer months. This is an important finding for the agriculture or forestry because it affects work management and planning. The clearest tendency in drought events was observed in the western part of Slovakia covering areas with agriculturally intensive land use. Besides prolonging drought events, there was also a higher accumulated deficit for each event. The increase in drought intensity was not spatially consistent over the cluster area, mostly reaching a slight decline of about − 0.1 to − 0.3, which means slight intensification of drought periods in 1991–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of climate change increasingly show themselves in many forms in our everyday lives such as heatwaves and droughts. Drought is one of the critical events today for increasing drought frequency. This study focuses on meteorological drought because it directly affects other drought types. Hence, this study focuses on how the future drought conditions will vary under climate change effects in the Mediterranean basin (Turkey). In doing so, this study utilizes precipitation data from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). The GCMs are CNRM-CM6, GFDL-CM4, and MPI-ESM1, while the RCMs are (RCA4)-CNRM-CM5, (Reg CM4)-GFDL-ESM2M, and (RCA4)-MPI-ESM-MR. Mitigating biases of the climate models, this study utilizes four statistical downscaling methods (SD), linear scaling (LS), local intensity scaling (LOCI), power transformation (PT), and distribution mapping (DM). Here, the study has two purposes. The main aim of the paper here is to compare the performance of SD methods in improving the representation of observed climate variables in climate models. In addition, the study shows how different methods will affect the spatial drought distribution in the area under the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios. Consequently, the study uses the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Z-score index (ZSI) to quantify future drought conditions and reaches the following results. The study reveals that mild drought conditions are prevalent in the basin for future periods, and drought indices go down to − 0.55. The study also shows that different SD methods affect the results obtained by each climate model diversely. For example, while the LS method causes the most drought conditions on the results based on CNRM-CM5 and CNRM-CM6, the DM method has a similar impact on outcomes based on GFDL-CM4 and GFDL-ESM2M and causes the most drought conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For an effective reservoir operation during drought, the variations of both water supply and water demand which depend on hydrological and meteorological conditions need to be dealt with. This paper aimed to consider these variations in the Aharchay basin (Iran) by coupling a hedging rule (HR)-based reservoir operation model (HRROM) with a climate-based irrigation scheduling model (CBISM) at the farm level. Through the HRROM, optimal long-term decisions for Sattarkhan reservoir were made by considering the probable streamflow scenarios in the system. Given the variable agricultural demands (VAD) in the CBISM, the irrigation water was optimally allocated to the crops using several evapotranspiration (ET) scenarios. The CBISM employs three sub-models including linear programming (LP), nonlinear programming (NLP), and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to maximize the total income of the Aharchay agricultural network as a function of the climate factors and the supplied water. To this end, the daily weather and discharge data from 1990 to 2015 were used in this study. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were used to detect the meteorological and hydrological droughts, respectively. The SPEI was calculated based on the high-resolution-gridded datasets of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The findings demonstrated that the HRROM-CBISM generally managed to increase the time-based (αt) and volume-based (αv) reliability indices by 20% and 44%, respectively, compared with the conventional standard operation policy (SOP). For more investigations, the three major droughts of 2000–2002, 2004–2006, and 2008–2014 were separately analyzed. The average values of αt, αv, and vulnerability (V) for SOP were 0.33, 0.51, and 0.48, respectively. With the HRROM-CBISM, these values were about 0.5, 0.55, and 0.45, respectively. Among these indices, αt had the highest variations, while αv had the lowest variations in both the SOP and HRROM-CBISM approaches. The average water shortage for the mentioned droughts was significantly decreased from 89 (SOP) to 75 MCM (HRROM-CBISM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to global climate change, droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe in many regions such as in South Africa. In Limpopo, observed high climate variability and projected future climate change will likely increase future maize production risks. This paper evaluates drought patterns in Limpopo at two representative sites. We studied how drought patterns are projected to change under future climatic conditions as an important step in identifying adaptation measures (e.g., breeding maize ideotypes resilient to future conditions). Thirty-year time horizons were analyzed, considering three emission scenarios and five global climate models. We applied the WOFOST crop model to simulate maize crop growth and yield formation over South Africa's summer season. We considered three different crop emergence dates. Drought indices indicated that mainly in the scenario SSP5-8.5 (2051–2080), Univen and Syferkuil will experience worsened drought conditions (DC) in the future. Maize yield tends to decline and future changes in the emergence date seem to impact yield significantly. A possible alternative is to delay sowing date to November or December to reduce the potential yield losses. The grain filling period tends to decrease in the future, and a decrease in the duration of the growth cycle is very likely. Combinations of changed sowing time with more drought tolerant maize cultivars having a longer post-anthesis phase will likely reduce the potential negative impact of climate change on maize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may cause adverse impact on agricultural production that could jeopardize food availability and security. In this paper, we investigate how changes in mean values and variability of weather variables may affect rice yield using panel data for 30 districts of Tamil Nadu State from 1971 to 2018. We estimate a fixed-effects regression model with panel-corrected standard errors. Results show that rainfall and temperature have a statistically significant impact on rice yield. Furthermore, weather variability, measured as standard deviations of temperature and rainfall, has a negative effect on rice yields. We use the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project-5 outputs and dynamically downscaled the weather outputs using the regional climate model. The results of the climate model showed that the rise in temperature and disruptions in rainfall patterns including both excessive and deficient rainfall events in Tamil Nadu will continue in the future under different climate scenarios. Projected changes in the weather variables are likely to decrease rice yield in Tamil Nadu from 0.7 to 6.3% under the low emission scenario and 4.1 to 20.1% in the high emission scenario during 2022–2050 (relative to 1971–2018). These projections have implications for the planning and targeting of climate adaptation technologies such as drought-tolerant and flood-tolerant varieties to lessen the adverse impact of weather variability due to climate change in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The flood protection embankments of Hungary and Europe face numerous challenges. Some dike bases were constructed more than 200 years ago; since then, they have been elevated and extended. Because of these iterative adaptations, the dikes bear many construction errors, which can trigger failures and slides. Due to climate change, droughts and low-water periods of the rivers in central Europe are becoming more frequent. As a result of these effects, the water balance of the dikes can alter and desiccate in the long term. The most staggering fissures appeared on dikes built from clays susceptible to volume change. The General Directorate of Water Management ordered a comprehensive survey of dike pavement cracks in Hungary. This was one of the most extensive surveys of such kind. Hungary has some 4400 km of primary flood protection embankments, out of which 1250 km is paved. There are multiple reasons why the pavement of an embankment can crack. The main features of crack patterns related to clays with shrink-swell potential are identified. The results of international studies and the present survey are synthesised. The main objective of this paper is to draw a correlation between drought (aridity) zones, plasticity index of the soil samples, and crack thickness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global climate change and the rapid urbanization, urban flood and drought disasters are frequent and urban water supply systems are facing a sea of serious challenges. It is crucial to assess the resilience of urban water supply systems and develop corresponding disaster mitigation and improvement strategies. Urban water supply systems include many subsystems, but existing researches generally focus on a single subsystem. Therefore, this paper proposes a correlation analysis method and a factor analysis method for the resilience evaluation index system of urban water supply systems by combining each subsystem and applying grey system theory. The method can reflect the four dimensions of the water supply process (water source, water plant, supply and distribution network and users) and the five dimensions of the urban management system (society, natural environment, economy, physics and organization). Taking Qingdao as an example, a multi-level integrated evaluation model based on a cloud model is applied to simulate and analyze the resilience of Qingdao's water supply system. As a result, decision support is provided for planning and building resilience systems for urban water systems in the short and long term, based on four main factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the multiple challenges facing all categories of farmers globally. However, African farmers are the most sensitive in respect of climate variability and change. Climate change impacted negatively on crop production and the livelihoods of the local farmers. In black township South Africa, agricultural activities are highly dominated by small-scale farmers, whose farming system is highly vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper presents the analysis of how small-scale farmers employed adaptation strategies in response to climate change and determinants of small-scale households' choices of coping and adaptation approach to climate variability and change in Vhembe District, South Africa. Multi nominal logit model was used on a surveyed of 224 local farmers. Farmers' socio-economic attributes, was used in response to climate changes and further, households have adaptation strategies both on-farm and off-farm approach. Such approaches were; drought-tolerant seeds, shorter cycle crops, diversification of crops, changing planting dates, small-scale irrigation, migrating to urban areas and involvement in petty business. The results of the findings reveals that the significant drivers affecting choice of adaptation approach include climate information, gender, farm size, education level, farmer experience, decreasing rainfall and increases in temperature as farmers' determinant choices of adaptation to climate change. While, on the other hand, off-farm resources, headed households and age had no significant impact on the choice of coping and adaptation approach to climate change. Therefore, policy makers in the local municipality should play a significant role by enhancing adaptation strategies appropriate for particular climatic shock on the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sahel is prone to climate stressors such as droughts, winds and floods. This study employs a systematic review approach to track the frequency with which these stressors are reported in the scientific peer reviewed literature, examining publishing trends to identify which stressors are most reported, documenting the spatial distribution of these stressors from a country and regional perspective, and assessing the role played by climatic and non-climatic drivers in causing the stressors. A total of (n = 388) reports of stressors were documented in (n = 164) peer reviewed articles. From a country perspective, Southern Niger records the highest number of reports on all three stressors (15.97%), followed by Ethiopia (11.85%) and Senegal (10.56%). Regionally, West African Sahel recorded the highest number of reports on all stressors (49.97%) followed by East African Sahel (29.89%) and Central African Sahel (12.11%) respectively. Droughts are observed to be the most frequently reported stressor (n = 219), followed by floods (n = 123) and winds (n = 46). The decade 1975-1985 recorded the highest reports of stressors (n = 207), while the decade 1997-2007 recorded (n = 80) and the decade 1986-1996 recorded (n = 52). While climatic drivers are dominant (52%), there is however an increasing attribution of the drivers of the stressors to non-climatic drivers (47%). The main weakness of this study is that it uses peer reviewed papers dwelling on climate stressors as a proxy for climate stressors in the Sahel and a lot more studies could be hiding in non-peer reviewed studies, underscoring that this work provides a general and baseline overview of the climate stressors in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper used original survey data in Shandong province of China to depict local farmers' perceptions of combined climatic and market risks, and their adaptive behaviors. Two Logit models were developed to capture the empirical relationship between farmers' risk perception of the combined risks and adaptive behaviors. Results show that farmer's risk perception of climate change and market significantly affected their adoption behavior of adaptive measures, including perception of rainfall decrease, gale decrease, drought increase, and price fall of agricultural products. Moreover farmers' adaptive behaviors are more sensitive to their perceptions of extreme climatic events. Addition of demographic factors can improve the explanatory capacity of the Logit model. As illustrated by the models, male and better educated farmers have greater willingness to take actions for averting risks, while household heads with bigger farm are more reluctant. A majority of respondents chose to construct farm structure for irrigation and water conservation to avert climatic risks. Insurance, which is regarded as an effective tool to help farmers mitigate risks and avoid losses, has not been sufficiently accepted by farmers in rural areas in Shandong province. This underscores the need of effective communication of knowledge to enhance farmers' coping capacity and to encourage their active response to risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reliable knowledge of the near-future climate change signal of extremes is important for adaptation and mitigation strategies. Especially compound extremes, like heat and drought occurring simultaneously, may have a greater impact on society than their univariate counterparts and have recently become an active field of study. In this paper, we use a 12-member ensemble of high-resolution (7 km) regional climate simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over central Europe to analyze the climate change signal and its uncertainty for compound heat and drought extremes in summer by two different measures: one describing absolute (i.e., number of exceedances of absolute thresholds like hot days), the other relative (i.e., number of exceedances of time series intrinsic thresholds) compound extreme events. Changes are assessed between a reference period (1971–2000) and a projection period (2021–2050). Our findings show an increase in the number of absolute compound events for the whole investigation area. The change signal of relative extremes is more region-dependent, but there is a strong signal change in the southern and eastern parts of Germany and the neighboring countries. Especially the Czech Republic shows strong change in absolute and relative extreme events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses two fundamental questions on climate change and variability: to what extent has climate changed and/or varied over years in two districts of different agro-ecological regions or zones and how do any changes differ between the zones or districts? Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. To assess change and variability, we utilise rainfall data-records over a 36-year period from 1980 to 2016. Results show that there are wide variations and differences within and between the districts. Evidence suggests a general reduction in both annual rainfall and wet days. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. Dry spells frequency and duration trends within rainy season show an increase over the period examined. We conclude that local climate in both areas has changed over the period investigated. However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. We further conclude that migrants into Kabwe and other inhabitants are not any safer from climate change risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change is expected to affect plant–soil feedbacks (PSFs, i.e., the effects of a plant on the growth of another plant or community grown in the same soil via changes in soil abiotic and biotic properties), influencing plant community dynamics and, through this, ecosystem functioning. However, our knowledge of the effects of climate changes on the magnitude and direction of PSFs remains limited, with considerable variability between studies. We quantified PSFs associated with common climate change factors, specifically drought and warming, and their corresponding ambient (control) conditions using a meta-analytical approach. We investigated whether drought and warming effects on PSFs were consistent across functional groups, life histories (annual versus perennial) and species origin (native versus non-native), planting (monoculture, mixed culture) and experimental (field, greenhouse/laboratory) conditions. Results: PSFs were negative (a mechanism that encourage species co-existence) under drought and neutral under corresponding ambient conditions, whereas PSFs were negative under both ambient and elevated temperatures, with no apparent difference in effect size. The response to drought was largely driven by stronger negative PSFs in grasses, indicating that grasses are more likely to show stronger negative PSFs than other functional groups under drought. Moreover, non-native species showed negative drought-induced PSFs while native species showed neutral PSFs under drought. By contrast, we found the opposite in pattern in response to warming for native and non-native species. Perennial herbs displayed stronger drought-induced negative PSFs than annual herbs. Mixed species communities displayed more negative PSFs than monocultures, independent of climate treatment. Finally, warming and drought treatment PSF effect sizes were more negative in experiments performed in the field than under controlled conditions. Conclusions: We provide evidence that drought and warming can induce context-specific shifts in PSFs, which are dependent on plant functional groups, life history traits and experimental conditions. These shifts would be expected to have implications for plant community dynamics under projected climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Western Himalayan region, particularly the Kashmir valley, harbors a rich diversity of rice landraces, yet systematic studies on climate resilience are lacking. The present study was aimed at investigating the root traits and their interplay with shoot morphological and physiological traits under drought stress using seven indica and three japonica rice varieties released by SKUAST-Kashmir and their possible role in adaptive capacity to different environments. Significant variability was observed in root and shoot traits across the varieties. Root traits exhibited a wide phenotypic range, including rooting depth, fresh and dry weight, diameter, length, volume, surface area, and length density. Associations between root and shoot traits were identified, with notable correlations such as shoot weight with root shoot ratio, shoot length with root dry weight, diameter, and surface area, and tiller number with various root traits. Additionally, physiological traits like canopy temperature depression showed significant correlations with root depth and surface area. Principal component analysis (PCA) analysis grouped japonica type varieties together with a notable outlier, Chenab, due to its superior root traits among indica varieties. These findings emphasize the substantial contribution of root traits to productivity and advocate for their integration into varietal development processes. In view of the increasing evidences in crop plants about their role of root traits in defining plant productivity and reproductive fitness, study of root traits could provide valuable insights into the patterns of crop adaptation to diverse areas and growing environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The potential ecosystem collapse of forests in Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) by unprecedented droughts is worrisome due to the impacts on its exceptional biodiversity and human well-being. However, research integrating the impacts of global change drivers, forest resilience and the challenges facing human-nature relationships is still scarce. Methods and results: Using the central Chile megadrought and recently massive forest browning event as a model scenario, we identified, through a scientific literature review and an interdisciplinary scientific workshop, the research priorities and questions to address for MTEs in a context of global change. Our results highlighted knowledge gaps that need to be covered, particularly in social and environmental sciences, with an emphasis on soil science. Research priorities must focus on (1) the understanding of interactive effects of global and local anthropogenic drivers on MTEs and (2) the evaluation of the potential impacts of MTEs collapse on human well-being and ecosystem functioning. Conclusions: We highlight the need for a collaborative approach involving scientists, landowners, managers/administrators, and policymakers to apply adaptive forest management against the current socio-environmental challenges under a global change context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is responsible for the climatic variability in the Northern Hemisphere, in particular, in Europe and is related to extreme events, such as droughts. The purpose of this paper is to study the correlation between precipitation and winter (December-January-February-March (DJFM)) NAO both for the historical period (1951-2000) and two future periods (2001-2050 and 2051-2100). NAO is calculated for these three periods by using sea level pressure, while precipitation data from seven climate models following the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 are also used in this study. An increasing trend in years with positive DJFM NAO values in the future is defined by this data, along with higher average DJFM NAO values. The correlation between precipitation and DJFM NAO is high, especially in the Northern (high positive) and Southern Europe (high negative). Therefore, higher precipitation in Northern Europe and lower precipitation in Southern Europe are expected in the future. Cross-spectral analysis between precipitation and DJFM NAO time series in three different locations in Europe revealed the best coherence in a dominant cycle between 3 and 4 years. Finally, the maximum drought period in terms of consecutive months with drought is examined in these three locations. The results can be used for strategic planning in a sustainable water resources management plan, since there is a link between drought events and NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper critically examines the effects of climate change on the African continent and suggests ways in which the negative effects of climate change can be effectively combatted to ensure sustainable development. Although responsible for a small share of global climate change, Africa is the most vulnerable region of the world to climate change, which destroys the people's source of food, medication, shelter, and income, leading to poor nutrition and exposure to infectious diseases, more hospitalizations, less working hours, and heavy financial losses. Apart from global environmental deterioration, Africa is one of the regions of the world experiencing the severest droughts and water scarcity. The impact of all this on Africa's already fragile socio-economic and political structures is grave. Climate change threatens the political stability of the continent. In this paper we argue that the effects of climate change on the continent have been amplified by human choices and political ineptitude of the ruling elites in Africa. We maintain that good governance, the promotion of African traditional values that encourage the protection of the environment, paying attention to rural development and the emancipation of women economically and politically, and investing in alternative and renewable energy are the necessary pre-conditions for effectively mitigating the effects of climate change and ensuring sustainable development in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought will increasingly threaten forest ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how competition influences tree growth response to drought is essential for forest management aiming at climate change adaptation. However, published results from individual case studies are heterogeneous and sometimes contradictory. We reviewed 166 cases from the peer-reviewed literature to assess the influence of stand-level competition on tree growth response to drought. We monitored five indicators of tree growth response: mean sensitivity (inter-annual tree ring width variability); association between inter-annual growth variability and water availability; resistance; recovery; and resilience to drought. Vote counting did not indicate a consistent effect of competition on mean sensitivity. Conversely, higher competition for resources strengthened the association between water availability and inter-annual growth rates. Meta-analysis showed that higher competition reduced resistance (p < 0.001) and improved recovery (p < 0.05), but did not consistently affect resilience. Species, site and stand characteristics, and drought intensity were insignificant or poor predictors for the large variability among the investigated cases. Our review and meta-analysis show that competition does not affect the response of tree growth to drought in a unidirectional and universal way. Although density reduction (thinning) can alleviate growth declines during drought, the effects on growth after stress are uncertain. The large variability among investigated cases suggests that local-scale processes play a crucial role in determining such responses and should be explicitly evaluated and integrated into specific strategies for adaptation of forests to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to examine the association between in utero drought exposure and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) in a global climate change hot spot. Calculations of EAA in adults using DNA methylation have been found to accurately predict chronic disease and longevity. However, fewer studies have examined EAA in children, and drought exposure in utero has not been investigated. Additionally, studies of EAA in low-income countries with diverse populations are rare. We assess EAA using epigenetic clocks and two DNAm-based pace-of-aging measurements from whole saliva samples in 104 drought-exposed children and 109 same-sex sibling controls in northern Kenya. We find a positive association between in utero drought exposure and EAA in two epigenetic clocks (Hannum's and GrimAge) and a negative association in the DNAm based telomere length (DNAmTL) clock. The combined impact of drought's multiple deleterious stressors may reduce overall life expectancy through accelerated epigenetic aging. The study suggests a positive association between in utero drought exposure and faster biological aging in children in a global climate change hot spot. Drought experienced during pregnancy may reduce life expectancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Deciphering the genetic architecture of drought tolerance could allow the candidate genes identification responding to water stress. In the Andean Patagonian forest, the genus Nothofagus represents an ecologically relevant species to be included in different genomic studies. These studies are scarce in South American ecosystems however represent an important source of genomic data in order to interpret future climate-change environment scenarios of these emblematic forests. Here, we achieved the assemblage of the transcriptome of N. alpina while searching for key genes of activated or suppressed metabolic pathways in response to drought stress. Results: De novo transcriptome assembly resulted in 104,030 transcripts. Following confirmation of drought conditions, based on reduction of leaf water potential and stomatal conductance, a differential gene expression analysis resulted in 2720 significantly expressed genes (1601 up-regulated and 1119 down-regulated). Enrichment analysis (over-representation analysis and gene set enrichment analysis) resulted in more than one hundred stress-responsive term ontologies (i.e. biological processes) and pathways. Terms such as response to abscisic acid and pathways such as plant hormone signal transduction or starch and sucrose metabolism were over-represented. Protein–protein interaction assessment resulted in networks with significantly expressed top common hub gene clusters (e.g. plant-type cell wall biogenesis among down-regulated or ABA-signalling among up-regulated). These networks evidenced important regulators at gene expression such as transcriptional factors. Conclusions: Responses of N. alpina seedlings to drought stress were evidenced by the activation of several genes linked to GO biological processes and KEGG pathways, which were mainly based on over-expression of specific protein kinases, phosphatases, synthases and transcription factors. This suggests an up-regulation of signalling pathways, triggered through plant hormones such as abscisic acid or auxin, which could counteract the osmotic stress created as a probable immediate response to drought. On the other hand, groups of carbon fixation genes related to the galactose metabolism, photosynthesis, secondary wall biogenesis, and fatty acid biosynthesis degradation were down-regulated under drought. Overall, our results provide new genomic data for understanding how non-model long-lived trees of Patagonian forests would acclimate to environmental changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is affecting the global hydrological cycle, causing drastic changes in precipitation patterns. Extreme climatic events are becoming more frequent and intense than in the past, leading to water-level fluctuations and affecting aquatic ecosystems. Semiarid regions are very susceptible to changing climate. We analyzed a 10 years dataset from a tropical semiarid reservoir during extreme hydrological events (heavy rains and prolonged drought), and evaluated phytoplankton functional responses to environmental conditions. We found, as hypothesized, that phytoplankton functional structure change in a temporal scale due to water–volume fluctuation induced by the rainfall pattern. Depth and inorganic material acted as environmental filters selecting phytoplankton groups. High water level seems to improve water quality and low water level worsen it. Colonial and filamentous cyanobacteria dominate the wet period; however, it may have a critical threshold during severe periods of drought, which will lead to dominance of groups well adapted to low light conditions and with mixotrophic metabolism. Phytoplankton functional approaches can simplify phytoplankton identification and reflect better the environmental conditions than the taxonomic approach. Therefore, these approaches can help to understand the shifts in aquatic ecosystems under extreme hydrological events and predict functional response of phytoplankton being an important tool to water management and conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Treeline ecotones of Mediterranean ecoregions have been affected by the increasing intensity and severity of droughts. Even though the effect of droughts on forest dynamics has been widely documented, knowledge is relatively scarce of how extreme climate episodes affect the hydraulic structure and, therefore, the physiology of woody plants. The Mediterranean Andes have experienced an uninterrupted period of drought since 2010, including an extremely dry year in 2019 with approximately 80% rainfall deficit. Here, we investigated shifts in wood anatomical and physiological traits of Kageneckia angustifolia, an endemic treeline species, in response to this drought period. Methods: We evaluated the xylem plasticity of three K. angustifolia populations across their natural distribution (31–35° SL) based on anatomical (vessel structure and distribution) and physiological (intrinsic water-use efficiency) variables in the tree rings. We focused on the period 2000–2020 that corresponds to before the megadrought (2000–2007), (ii) megadrought (2008–2018) and (iii) hyperdrought (2019–2020). The variables were annualized and analyzed by linear mixed-effects models. Results: Our results provide insights to the anatomical and physiological mechanisms underlying the resilience of treeline forests to persistent droughts in central Chile. We found that the extreme drought in 2019–2020 triggered shifts in vessel size and frequency that increased hydraulic safety. These significant shifts in vessel traits occurred in parallel with a decrease in pit aperture area and an increase in water-use efficiency, further increasing the resilience of K. angustifolia to extreme drought stress. Conclusions: Our results revealed coordinated shifts in vessel size and frequency and water-use efficiency in response to the megadrought, thereby reducing vulnerability to hydraulic failure. The apparent resilience of K. angustifolia to extreme droughts suggests that this adaptation to drought stress may increase its ability to tolerate novel climatic conditions of treeline environments of the Mediterranean Andes, although it is not clear whether these adaptations will be sufficient to persist in scenarios that predict intensification of climate stress. Finally, our results provide empirical evidence that integrating wood anatomical and physiological traits facilitates the understanding of resilience mechanisms that treeline forests develop in the face of increasing drought stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Madagascar experienced a prolonged drought over the last five years, but whether these conditions are a manifestation of global climate change has been unclear. Here, we document trends beginning as early as 1980 towards a later rainy-season onset across three distinct remotely sensed indicators: precipitation, soil moisture, and vegetation greenness. All three indicators closely covary, particularly over the last decade when satellite observational resolution and accuracy is greatest. Furthermore, observed soil moisture trends early in the rainy season agree with the mean from CMIP6 historical and SSP5-8.5 simulations, but are distinct from pre-industrial control simulations, implicating anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing as the source of the trends. Physically, these models simulate a poleward migration of the mid-latitude jet that leads to a delay in the seasonal steering of storm tracks over Southern Madagascar. Soil moisture trends driven by anthropogenic forcing made the recent drought significantly more likely over 2017–2022 (p < 0.01), and such droughts are expected to become increasingly likely over this century. These results indicate that, although Madagascar has not substantially contributed to global greenhouse gas emissions, farmers in Southern Madagascar will need to adapt to drier conditions early in the rainy season as a consequence of global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates drought events, focusing on the region of China, using simulations from five global climate models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is employed to analyze drought severity, duration, and frequency over three future periods. Evaluation of the GCMs' simulations against observational data indicates their effectiveness in capturing historical climatic change across China. The rapid increase in CO2 concentration under high-emission scenarios in the mid- and late-future century (2040–2070 and 2071–2100) substantially influences vegetation behavior via regulation on leaf stomata and canopy structure. This regulation decelerates the increase in potential evapotranspiration, thereby mitigating the sharp rise in future drought occurrences in China. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop strategies and measures for mitigating and adapting to future drought conditions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main objective of this research is to evaluate the effects of climate change first on precipitation and temperature, and then on the runoff characteristics of two tropical watersheds located in Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. To achieve this, eighteen General Circulation Models (GCMs) were selected to measure various climate change scenarios under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, using the reference period of 1985–2014. The GR2M hydrological model was employed to replicate past monthly surface runoff patterns for the Casamance and Kayanga-Géva watersheds. After calibrating and validating the GR2M model, the researchers simulated the predictable effect of climate change on the flow for the near future (2021–2040), medium future (2041–2060), and distant future (2081–2100) for each watershed, using the GCM multi-model ensemble mean. The quantile method was used to correct bias in temperature and precipitation data. The results of bias correction give a correlation coefficient greater than 0.9% for temperatures and 0,6% precipitation between the outputs of the multi-model ensemble and observations used. The results indicate also that all watersheds are expected to experience drier conditions in the near-future, mid-future, and far-future periods under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the predictable temperature trends consistently show a warmer situation with growing radiative making in the future times. However, the primary factor influencing changes in flow for all watersheds is the projected precipitation changes. The anticipated drier conditions in the near-future, mid-future, and far-future horizons under both scenarios would lead to significantly reduced runoff volumes at the beginning and middle of the rainy season. Consequently, the projected seasonal changes in river flow for all catchments (e.g., under SSP5-8.5 scenario, a decline of -34.47%, -56.01%, and -68.01% was noted, respectively, for the horizons 2050, 2070, and 2090 for the Casamance basin) could lead to new frequent occurrences of drought and water scarcity associated with past hydrological regimes. These scenarios enhance the necessity of improving water management, water prizing, and water recycling policies, to ensure water supply and to reduce tensions among regions and countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dual crises of COVID-19 and climate change are impacting the lives of adolescents and young people as they transition to adulthood in an uncertain world, yet they are often excluded from research and political discourse. We surveyed young people about their needs and experiences, critical to engaging them and designing effective programs and policies to address these intersecting harms. The 2022 round of a national online survey through the Violence Outcomes in COVID-19 Epoch (VoCes) Study surveyed 152,088 Mexican youth (15–24 years). Logistic regressions were implemented to identify characteristics associated with four climate responses (economic, work-related, receiving government support, or social network support). Overall, 8.1% of participants experienced a recent climate hazard, with major impacts including housing damage from floods, and crop/livestock losses from drought. Participants who experienced a climate hazard were more likely to have experienced a pandemic-related harm, suggesting a dual impact. Poor youth were more likely to report economic losses from both the pandemic and a climate event but least likely to receive government support. Economic effects from the pandemic are exacerbating climate-related harms, unequally threatening the poorest youth. Engaging young people in decision-making and supporting the most vulnerable youth is critical for the next generation to thrive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) is one of the most important staple foods; when exposed to drought, wheat yields decline. Although much research has been performed to generate higher yield wheat cultivars, there have been few studies on improving end-product quality under drought stress, even though wheat is processed into flour to produce so many foods, such as bread, noodles, pancakes, cakes, and cookies. Recently, wheat cultivation has been affected by severe drought caused by global climate change. In previous studies, seed shrinkage was observed in wheat exposed to continuous drought stress during seed development. In this study, we investigated how progressive drought stress affected seed development by metabolomic and transcriptomic analyses. Metabolite profiling revealed the drought-sensitive line reduced accumulation of proline and sugar compared with the water-saving, drought-tolerant transgenic line overexpressing the abscisic acid receptor TaPYL4 under drought conditions in spikelets with developing seeds. Meanwhile, the expressions of genes involved in translation, starch biosynthesis, and proline and arginine biosynthesis was downregulated in the drought-sensitive line. These findings suggest that seed shrinkage, exemplifying a deficiency in endosperm, arose from the hindered biosynthesis of crucial components including seed storage proteins, starch, amino acids, and sugars, ultimately leading to their inadequate accumulation within spikelets. Water-saving drought tolerant traits of wheat would aid in supporting seed formation under drought conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Afghanistan, as a landlocked country located within central and southwestern Asia, has an arid to semi-arid climate. Most of the people are involved in agricultural activities, and a major part of the country's gross domestic product depends on agriculture, but the country has the lowest water storage capacity. Consecutive periods of drought and rapid snowmelt due to climate change have made it more challenging for suitable water resource management practices. This study investigates the historical meteorological drought characteristics across the whole country by employing the Reconnaissance Drought Index for the period 1979–2019 using data from 55 meteorological stations. Trends in precipitation and temperature are also investigated using the Mann-Kendall's and the Sen's slope statistical tests. A four-decadal countrywide drought map is generated. Extreme and severe droughts were observed in 1999 and 2000 across the whole country. Moderate drought events have started to occur with a frequency of 3 to 5 years since 1999. The decadal annual rainfall values in each river basin indicate that rainfall has decreased in the last two decades with a significant decline in 1999-2008. The trends of increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation are indications of rapid climate change in the country, especially in the south, west, and southwest regions. Due to the intensity and frequency of the droughts, river flow rates have decreased; and therefore, there is a need for the upstream and downstream neighboring countries to come to terms with the phenomenon of a new normal in the hydrological cycle and accordingly revise new water sharing treaties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and environmental stress limit the growth of plants, including bananas. A systematic review and analysis of the topic are presented for the first time to identify physiological, biochemical, and molecular factors that may confer tolerance to climate change in Musa spp. Searches were conducted in six databases using pre-established inclusion and exclusion criteria (Web of Science, PubMed Central, SAGE, Google Scholar, Wiley, and Scopus Journals). A previously established process and inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to avoid publication bias. This systematic review was specifically focused on the Musa spp. production to climate change, the number of studies included was limited to only 76 articles. This indicates the need for additional research in this area and a potential change in research trends toward other strategies for mitigating the effects of climate change in bananas. Based on the review outcomes, we found a connection between changes in several climatic factors, which impacted banana production, and the cultivation of bananas in various geographic locations. Recently, few comprehensive studies on the effects of water stress on bananas have been conducted, however, they have yet to address the impacts of flood stress. Research gaps were identified addressing the characteristics of banana production and how this varies with location, elevation, and management factors, as well as the effects of changes in drought, water stress, and temperature. Evidence-based innovations are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in banana production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NOAA has developed a global reference evapotranspiration (ET0) reanalysis using the UN Food and Agriculture Organization formulation (FAO-56) of the Penman-Monteith equation forced by MERRA phase 2 (MERRA2) meteorological and radiative drivers. The NOAA ET0 reanalysis is provided daily from January 1, 1980 to the near-present at a resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.625° longitude. The reanalysis is verified against station data across southern Africa, a region presenting both significant challenges regarding hydroclimatic variability and observational quantity and quality and significant potential benefits to food-insecure populations. These data are generated from observations from the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) network. We further verified globally against spatially distributed ET0 derived from two reanalyses–the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Princeton Global Forcing (PGF)–and these verifications produced similar results, yet demonstrated wide regional and seasonal differences. We also present cases that verify the operational applicability of the reanalysis in long-established drought, famine, crop- and pastoral-stress metrics, and in predictability assessments of drought forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present work aims to address the physical properties of different drought types under near-future climates in the Mediterranean. To do so, we use a multi-model mean of the bias-adjusted and downscaled product of five Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—phase6 (CMIP6), provided by Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) for the period 2021–2060, to estimate the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 1-, 6-, and 12-month time scales, and address the meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought, respectively. Additionally, SPEI is calculated from the bias-adjusted CMIP6 historical simulations and the reanalysis 'WFDE5' for 1980–2014 as a historical and reference period. The comparison of the CMIP6 with WFDE5 reveals a consistently increasing tendency for drought occurrences in the Mediterranean, particularly for agricultural and hydrological drought time scales. Nonetheless, an overestimation in historical trend magnitude is shown by the CMIP6 with respect to WFDE5. The projection results depict drought frequencies ranging between 12 and 25% of the studied period 2021–2060, varying with regions and climate scenarios. The tendency to increase the drought frequency is more pronounced in the southern than northern Mediterranean countries. Drought severity is remarkable in the aggregated time scales; consequently, more pressure is foreseen in the food and water sectors. Drought seasonality reveals a higher tendency for drought occurrences in summer (autumn) months for the meteorological (agricultural) droughts. The driving factor(s) for drought occurrence strongly depends on regional climate characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest provides services, directly linked to micro and macro environment, water and soil resources, plants and animals' diversity, food production and security and energy resources. This study contributes to other studies and growing literature on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in the Congo Basin forest, particularly Cameroon's forest region. Mambioko has a four-season climate, with annual precipitation of 2000–3000 mm and temperature variations of 21.8–30.8 ◦C, most of its agriculture is rainfed. It has an evergreen or semi-deciduous rainforest corresponds to the ""humid"" and "low- and medium-altitude sub-humid" eco-floristic zones. This study is carried out to identify and assess climate change impacts on the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities in Mambioko community forest in Cameroon. Primary data were collected from 85 households; key informants, and focus group discussions and were supplemented with secondary data from a desk review of relevant literature. The study shows that climate change impacts the major livelihood activities of forest-dependent communities through prolonged drought, erratic rainfall patterns, and variability in rainfall intensity. Four of the critical activities of local communities impacted by climate change are agriculture, hunting, fishing and collecting non-timber forest products. People respond to the negative impacts by adopting simple irrigation systems, crop diversification, alternative livelihood activities, and increasing their farm sizes. This study concludes that future interventions to help forest-dependent communities cope with climate change impacts will require pursuing alternative non-climate-dependent livelihood activities, increasing access to climate information, and adopting sustainable agricultural and forest management practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water has been the source of life since it was found. In recent years, the false assurance of the permanence of water services in Iran has led to the creation of institutional structures related to water in an inappropriate and incompatible manner with environmental changes, and when water crises occur, such as droughts, floods, and, on a larger scale, climate changes, they do not have the flexibility and resilience to these changes. To this end, recognizing the current water governance system in the country is considered an essential need. The present study examines the regime of water governance and its structural characteristics in the Kor River basin, which is one of the areas facing water shortage challenges. In order to analyze these characteristics and determine the regime of the water governance system, the method of social network analysis (SNA) was used in the network of formal and informal institutions of Kherameh county downstream of the Kor River basin. This research has been done in a period of 9 months and includes designing questionnaires, field visits, completing questionnaires and analyzing the results. The results showed that the water governance network in this region has an unstable and weak structure and as a result, the level of cooperation and coordination between the institutions is low and the level of power centralization is high. As a result, the governing regime is centralized, and therefore, the establishment of a polycentric governance system requires the improvement of horizontal relations between formal and informal institutions and protection and development institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The period around the mid-late Holocene transition (c. 2200 bc) saw major societal developments across the eastern Mediterranean. At the same time, the region experienced a shift to more arid climatic conditions. This included punctuated episodes of rapid climate change such as the '4.2 ka event', which has been implicated in widespread societal 'collapse' at the end of the Early Bronze Age. The ways in which societies adapted agricultural production to cope with a drying climate are poorly understood. We begin to rectify this through stable isotope analysis of archaeobotanical remains from the Aegean region of western Türkiye, conducted to reveal changes in agricultural decision making across the mid-late Holocene transition. We find that Bronze Age farmers adapted agricultural production strategies by investing in drought-tolerant cereals cultivated on drier fields with water management strategies redirected towards pulses. Despite this, we find no evidence for pronounced drought stress in cereals grown during the period of the 4.2 ka event. This raises the potential for alternative explanations for societal disruptions visible across the Anatolian Plateau during this time, such as the breakdown of long-distance trade networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern zone of Cameroon, which depends mainly on agriculture, is considered one of the most vulnerable regions in the country to climate change. Few studies based on field data have examined the changes in climatic conditions that affect agriculture. This research focuses on fluctuations in precipitation that determine dry and wet seasons. From 1973 to 2020, data were collected from weather stations located in three major cities in northern Cameroon: Ngaoundere, Garoua and Maroua. Data were tested for homogeneity using the Pettitt and Buishand tests. Trends were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and the regression line, while drought severity was assessed using the standardized rainfall index method. These data homogeneity tests were performed using two statistical tools, SPSS and XLSTA software. According to Pettitt's test, rainfall increased by 29.6% in Ngaoundere from 1997 to 2020 compared to the previous years of 1973–1996; in Garoua, rainfall increased by 36.2% from 1988 to 2020 compared to the previous years of 1973–1987. However, from 1973 to 2020, the average rainfall in Maroua remained stable at approximately 716.5 mm, with a decreasing trend according to the Mann–Kendall test. In conclusion, this study shows that rainfall has increased significantly in the cities of Ngaoundere and Garoua, making these areas favorable for seasonal and market gardening. However, in Maroua, caution is advised, as rainfall is reportedly decreasing in this locality, increasing the risk of food insecurity. A credible climate warning system must be implemented on a large scale to guide farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants. UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approaches use large ensembles to generate plausible unprecedented events, which can inform our assessment of the risk to crops. We use the UNSEEN approach with a large ensemble of archived seasonal forecasts to generate thousands of plausible events over the last 40 years and compare the results with historically observed extreme temperature and precipitation. In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years. This means that in the US midwest, extreme temperatures that used to have a 1% chance to occur in 1981 now have a 17% chance to occur in any given year, while in China, the chance increased from 1% to 6%. Record-breaking years exceeding critical thresholds for enzymes in the wheat plant are now more likely than in the past, and these record-breaking hot years are associated with extremely dry conditions in both locations. Using geopotential height and wind anomalies from the UNSEEN ensemble, we demonstrate that strong winds over land pull dry air towards the regions these during extremely hot and dry unseen events. We characterize plausible extremes from the UNSEEN ensemble that can be used to help imagine otherwise unforeseen events, including a compound event in which high impacts co-occur in both regions, informing adaptation planning in these regions. Recent temperature extremes, especially in the US midwest, are unlikely to be a good proxy for what to expect in the next few years of today's climate, and local stakeholders might perceive their risk to be lower than it really is. We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pfumvudza is a Zimbabwean vernacular language term literally referring to the blooming of new leaves during the spring season signalling the beginning of a new farming season. It used to refer, to the conservation agriculture concept, a crop production intensification approach under which farmers ensure the efficient use of resources on a small area of land in order to optimise its management. The research assessed the effectiveness of Pfumvudza as a resilient strategy against climate change induced drought impacts in rural communities Zimbabwe, case of Munyarari ward 20. The descriptive case study was used triangulating data collection methods. The sample size was 96 households who practised Pfumvudza (20% of the target population) and all the 18 households (100%) which did not practise Pfumvudza. These were randomly sampled from five conveniently selected villages in the ward. Four key informants were purposively selected. Data was analysed using SPSS and content analysis. Climate change induced drought impacts greatly affected communal farmers who depended on rain fed agriculture. This led to food insecurity which attracted donor aid year after year. Pfumvudza improved yields and reduced donor aid in the area. Mann–Whitney test results indicated that there was a difference between yields of crops before and after Pfumvudza scheme. Mann–Whitney test results also revealed that there was a significance difference between those who practiced Pfumvudza and those who did not. It was concluded that Pfumvudza increased resilience against climate change induced drought impacts and improved yields in rural communities of Zimbabwe where it was implemented. The research recommends farmers to fully embrace the Pfumvudza strategy so as to realize high yields and improve food security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture and meteorological variables are strongly related to each other through different fluxes, constituting a complex network of interactions and feedbacks. Therefore, a better understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of soil moisture and its relationship with meteorological variables acquires a particular interest, especially under climate change conditions. Based on the gap in studies addressing this topic in Argentina, this study aimed to evaluate soil moisture content (SMC) and water deficit (DEF) annual trends between 1990 and 2019 and the contribution of different meteorological variables to those trends. To this end, simulations of SMCand DEF were performed by using a hydrological balance model, driven by meteorological observations of 51 sites distributed throughout Argentina. Since precipitation (PP) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) modulate the simulated soil moisture, annual PP and PE trends were also evaluated to assess the importance of these variables on the observed soil moisture changes. Furthermore, the regional contribution of the meteorological variables to the PE trends was assessed by means of a detrended method. Trends detected in SMC and DEF suggest an increase towards drier conditions in some areas of the country. Changes in PE were the main responsible for changes in SMC and DEF and were more relevant than changes in PP. In sites located in the center and east of the country, maximum and mean temperatures had a greater impact on PE. In sites located in the west of the country, changes in PE were mainly controlled by increases in wind speed and decreases in humidity. Examining the spatio-temporal variability of soil water and the meteorological variables that influence soil water is indispensable to assess climate-induced changes and propose feasible climate change adaptation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is of paramount importance for ecosystems, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The major aim of the current study is to monitor vegetation and land use changes, and run drought assessment using field and satellite data. The main precipitation proportions in the studied region are influenced by the Westerlies, meaning that any variations in these precipitation systems significantly impact the region. The utilized data entailed MODIS images for 16- and 8-day intervals between 2000 and 2013, TM and OLI sensor images recorded in 1985 and 2013, precipitation network data of TRMM satellite between 2000 and 2013, and synoptic data 32-year period. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to monitor temporal changes in meteorological station data in annual and seasonal scales. The results indicated that there was a downward trend in 50% of the meteorological stations in the annual scale. This falling trend was statistically significant at the level of 95%. At the end, drought was assessed using PCI, APCI, VSWI, and NVSWI. The results showed that vegetation, forest, pasture, and agriculture areas recorded the strongest correlations with initial precipitation at the beginning of the study. Based on interactions among various factors influencing vegetation indices, reduction in green vegetation, especially the area of oak forests in the studied period, is around 95,744 hectares, which is attributed to lower precipitation rate. Increasing of agricultural land and water zones during the studied years is the result of human management and depends on how surface and underground water resources are exploited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Droughts, or severe reductions of water flow, are expected to become more frequent and intense in rivers in many regions under the ongoing climate change scenario. It is therefore important to understand stream ecosystem functioning under drought conditions. We performed a meta-analysis of studies addressing drought effects on litter decomposition in streams (50 studies contributing 261 effect sizes) to quantify overall drought effects on this key ecosystem process and to identify the main moderators controlling these effects. Drought reduced litter decomposition by 43% overall, which can impact energy and matter fluxes along heterotrophic food webs. The magnitude of drought effects on litter decomposition depended on the type of drought (natural drought > human-induced drought), type of decomposer community (microbes + macroinvertebrates > microbes) under natural drought, climate (warm and humid > temperate and Mediterranean) under human-induced drought, and on litter identity. The magnitude of drought effects on litter decomposition also increased with the severity of the drought. The effects of ongoing climate change will likely be strongest in streams with abundant shredders undergoing natural drought, especially if the streams become temporary. The composition of the riparian vegetation may modulate the magnitude of drought effects on litter decomposition, which may have management applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastoralists in the Borana zone of southern Ethiopia are grappling with climatic risks and impacts, and their livelihoods appear to be precarious. The long-term changes in precipitation, temperature and extreme events are under-researched aspects of climate risk in the study area. Climate observations, local people's experiences, and memories of weather and drought patterns were analysed in this work to better understand the climate risks in the study region and provide actionable knowledge to facilitate adaptations. In southern Ethiopia, the primary drivers of climate risks are rainfall variabilities, rising temperatures, and drought. The annual rainfall variability observed in the study area (20–35%) is greater than the overall estimate for Eastern Africa (15–25%), indicative of a heightened climate risk in this area. Furthermore, seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall variabilities are being aggravated by rising temperatures, leading to increased frequency and magnitude of extreme events, particularly in the lowland area. These changes, specifically droughts of different intensities occurring every 2–3 years, erode the livelihood of the pastoralists. The lack of consensus among stakeholders as to the causes and aggravating factors of these climate changes impedes adaptation actions. The authors recommend the importance of initiating a participatory platform that will facilitate discussion on climate change to create a common understanding of the problem and relate it to public policy. The use of gridded precipitation and temperature data is recommended in future research to improve the availability of climate information for climate risk management. In addition, the use of mixed methods and local knowledge, as demonstrated in this study, is highly recommended to better understand climate risks, particularly when there is a limited availability and quality of long-time-series climate data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]