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Key Points * Greater output of final products does not improve supply-chain resilience. Manufacturing more with the same supply chains could even create more vulnerabilities. New policies must address full supply chains, not just the final stage. * Companies selling in the US should be responsible for knowing their suppliers, through the full extent of the chain. For products deemed critical, Chinese participation at any point in the supply chain should be restricted. * The single weakest link in many supply chains is constitutive materials, since these enable the next stages of production and are often sourced overseas. The US must quickly determine where projected materials demand exceeds reliable supply., There's been a great deal of talk about supply chains, yet the US government has done little. (1) There are in fact good reasons for inaction: Shifting supply chains is [...]

This comment paper addresses policy issues inherent in the proposed rule from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), 'Management and Protection of the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska.' (1) At [...]

Introduction There are several official medium- and long-range economic and financial projections of various federal programs, economic sectors, and government budgets in the US. The Social Security and Medicare Trustees [...], In the official models used by the Treasury and the Social Security and Medicare Trustees for projections and policy analysis, many key variables--like interest rates--are assumed as a continuation of past trends. Even the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)--with a more sophisticated growth model--does not consider supply factors determining future health care costs. By contrast, in our model, these variables are simultaneously determined by supply and demand, based on logical functional forms and deep parameter estimates from the literature or empirical analysis. This approach provides projections which better reflect real economic relationships--like those that exist between health care spending, the federal budget, and investment in capital--and changing underlying conditions, especially demographics. Within the next ten years, we find the federal government budget deficit relative to national income will grow significantly beyond historical experience and should be regarded as unsustainable. We project that debt-to-GDP will be 136 percent in 2032 and 264 percent in 2052, compared to CBO's 112 percent and 177 percent, respectively. Real interest rates rise in the long run in a ratcheting cycle of higher interest payments and growing deficits and debt. Our projection of national health expenditures relative to GDP in 2072 is 31.4 percent, compared to 28.4 percent by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), used by the Medicare Trustees. These higher rates of health care inflation arise from labor shortage effects in an aging economy because health care is produced in a low productivity, labor-dependent sector. This rise in health care expenditures further deteriorates the federal budget and lowers consumer welfare. Acknowledgements: We appreciate helpful comments from and discussions with James Capretta, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Jagadeesh Gokhale, Steve Robinson, and seminar participants at the American Enterprise Institute and the Savings and Retirement Foundation. All opinions expressed and mistakes made are our own and not theirs, nor our organizations'.

Cascading water echoed in the room as we stood around the Contemplative Court's waterfall fountain at the National Museum of African American History and Culture in Washington, DC, in September [...]

The chief actuary of the Social Security Administration has declared that Social Security, which is the federal government's largest spending program, most workers' largest tax expense, and most retirees' largest [...]

Traditional governance mechanisms are being strained by modern technological and political realities. Newer technologies, especially digital ones, are developing at an ever-faster rate and building on top of each other, blurring lines between sectors. Congress has failed to keep up with the quickening pace of technological change. It also continues to delegate most of its constitutional authority to agencies to deal with most policy concerns. But agencies are overwhelmed too. This situation is unlikely to change, creating a governance gap. Decentralized governance techniques are filling the gap. Soft law--informal, iterative, experimental, and collaborative solutions--represents the new normal for technological governance. This is particularly true for information sectors, including social media platforms, for which the First Amendment acts as a major constraint on formal regulation anyway. No one-size-fits-all tool can address the many governance issues related to fast-paced science and technology developments; therefore, decentralized governance mechanisms may be better suited to address newer policy concerns., In March 2021, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its latest Global Trends report, a periodic evaluation of global governance challenges for the coming decades. (1) Rapid technological change [...]

Chairman Whitehouse, Ranking Member Grassley, and distinguished members of the committee, thank you for the invitation to participate in this hearing. The Medicare HI Signal The headline focus of today's [...]

December 2023 In the past two years, nearly 10 states have adopted universal education savings account (ESA) programs. Does this suggest that the school choice movement is almost over, with [...]

Medical debts are unlike many other forms of debt. Individuals may not choose to incur them as they do with other financial obligations. Moreover, they reflect broader features of the [...]

Family resources--both money and time--contribute to children's success. By some measures, children have become better off in recent decades: parents are more highly educated and more likely to be working [...]

Key Points * Climate change threatens global food security and sustainable development, while many agricultural subsidies exacerbate environmental impact and agriculture's carbon footprint around the world. * Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) [...]

Key Points * 'Friendshoring'--the relocation of manufacturing, supply chains, or both away from China and other geopolitically risky countries to friendlier ones--has become a much-desired objective for Western companies. * Since countries that could benefit from friendshoring will not be able to replicate China's advantages, they should team up with one or more neighbors to offer prospective friendshorers combined solutions. * The solutions should include convenient logistics (including across borders); easy-to-handle taxation and tariff rules, including for components crossing borders several times; and the removal of red tape. * Friendshoring companies should clearly communicate their plans, as Western customers and the wider public are likely to strongly support such moves. They should also seek advice from manufacturers that have moved production from China in recent years (for practical rather than geopolitical reasons)., The 2022 word of the year in the English language was, depending on the dictionary consulted, 'goblin mode' (which should technically be labeled a phrase), gaslighting, woman, or 'permacrisis.' (1) [...]

Regulatory data on bank participation in the Paycheck Protect Program (PPP) reveal large cross-sectional differences among banks. Small bank PPP loan originations far outpaced their overall share of total lending while large bank originations lagged historical norms. Statistical analysis attributes a large share of the variation in PPP loan activity to differences in bank operational characteristics, but large differences remain. The unexplained differences could owe to systematic differences in risk management practices or bank PPP loan demand. Analysis of data on bank-specific average PPP loan size produces results that are inconsistent with a loan demand explanation. Absent good measures of PPP loan demand, the source of the observed differences in bank PPP loan activity cannot be definitively identified using bank regulatory data alone., December 2020 I. Introduction On March 26, 2020, the US Congress passed the CARES Act (i)-- a $2 trillion coronavirus relief package that included a variety of initiatives designed to [...]

Key Points * Teachers are the most important in-school factor for student success, yet we give teachers almost no say in education funding decisions. * Teacher spending accounts (TSAs) are [...]

The marketplace for medical services is undergoing notable change with the implementation of new federal price transparency rules. Hospitals and insurance plans, heretofore permitted to shield the prices they charged [...], Policymakers in the United States have an opportunity to convert bipartisan support for transparent health care prices into savings for patients and taxpayers. While significant new federal rules are forcing more disclosure of previously unseen fee schedules, they need refinement to help consumers play a more active role in the market. The current reliance on pricing tied to insurance billing codes instead of meaningful bundles of services is a major impediment. Four changes to the current suite of requirements would improve results: (1) pricing disclosure of standardized, consumer-focused bundles of services; (2) mandatory (and enforced) provider participation in the disclosure system with regularly scheduled updates; (3) guaranteed access to care for all consumers at the disclosed prices, irrespective of their insurance coverage; and (4) coordination of insurance payments with transparency efforts to ensure patients can benefit fully when choosing low-priced options.

NOVEMBER 2017 Executive Summary Thirty years ago, most medicines consumed in rich nations were made there. Today most of the ingredients and nearly half the finished products come from India [...]

Introduction On September 28, 2022, President Joe Biden is convening the White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition, and Health, where he will reveal a national strategy to end hunger and [...]

Key Points * Aid intended to increase farm productivity in developing countries is poorly targeted when focused on small farms and would go further if aimed at improving operations on midsize farms. * High overhead costs for program delivery, political capture in recipient countries, and congressional earmarks are among the reasons that the share of international aid dollars that actually benefit farmers directly is small (less than 10 percent of allocated funds). * Interventions that may improve the effectiveness of international agricultural aid include capping overhead costs, limiting contracts to nonprofit partners, partnering with institutions in the target countries, and engaging third-party evaluators to improve the quality and relevance of program performance assessment., The US Agency for International Development's (USAID) agricultural development programs face two major issues in their attempt to aid developing economies. These forces have been at work for several decades. [...]

Most developed countries face the need for significant policy changes to balance their budgets over the long run. Yet there is significant disagreement in the literature concerning the identification and impact of successful fiscal consolidations. In this paper, we explore the impact that differing assumptions and methodologies have on conclusions, and derive bounds across specifications that can be used by policymakers in designing their own reforms. Using cyclically adjusted panel data for select OECD countries from 1970-2007, we explore how the compositions of successful and unsuccessful consolidations differ for varying definitions of success. While conclusions about the growth impact of reforms vary depending on methodology, we find that there is much less disagreement concerning composition. Specifically, we find strong evidence that expenditure cuts outweigh revenue increases in successful consolidations. We also find evidence that the type of the spending cuts is an important determinant of success, as is the type of tax increases. We use these results as a guide, and discuss specific proposals for reducing the United States' deficit that draw on the lessons from past consolidations., I. Introduction Over the past several decades many developed countries have undertaken fiscal adjustments in attempts to reduce high debt levels. These countries' restructurings have encountered varying degrees of success [...]

The future of America rests in part on how the country prepares the next generation to live and to lead. Childhood is a consequential and cost-effective time to make investments [...]

Abstract More than half of U.S. states are working to establish programs what would automatically enrollment in Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) workers who are not offered a retirement plan by [...]

Foreword The cost of a college education has risen dramatically over the past two decades. Year after year, tuition and fees have increased at twice the rate of inflation, rising [...]

Saints are a major point of disagreement between the Roman Catholic Church and Protestant faiths. During the Protestant Reformation in the early 1500s, the Catholic doctrine of the intercessory power [...]

Debates over economic policy are often framed as conservatives supporting market-oriented policies, while progressives support government interventions. However, there are many market-oriented policies that can lead to more equality, an [...]

Key Points * The current popularity of private schools cannot be denied. Alternative schools and educational settings need to prepare foran influx of students. * Philanthropies are right to help [...]

Executive Summary In recent years, most proposals to reform quality assurance in higher education have targeted the federal government's role in overseeing postsecondary institutions. In this context, it is easy [...]

KEY POINTS * In Latin America today, the public's loss of confidence in authoritarian populists gives free-market democrats a chance to prove that economic and political freedom represent the only [...]

Executive Summary School choice is an education reform premised on a simple proposition: give families more choices, and they will find schools that best fit their children's needs. In short, [...]

ABSTRACT I develop an algorithm to approximate the loss rate distribution for fixed income portfolios with obligor concentrations. The approximation requires no advanced mathematics or statistics, only the summation of [...]

Foreword. Above all else, the American creed is one of liberty and opportunity. In the 21st century, whether the topic is economic opportunity, responsible citizenship, or political engagement, the role [...]

Foreword Rising tuition prices and finite public budgets have spawned a lively policy debate about innovation in higher education. In particular, competency-based models have garnered a lot of attention from [...]

Abstract Financial advisors commonly use earnings replacement rates to assist workers in their retirement planning. Policymakers and analysts use them to gauge the adequacy of Social Security benefits and other [...]

Contents Executive Summary 1 Introduction: The New Parent Power 5 Why Parents, Why Politics? 10 Getting Organized 18 The Build: Recruiting Parent Volunteers 23 with Taryn Hochleitner Taking Action 36 [...]

Key points: * America's K-12 standardized-testing system has fallen short in providing educators with the necessary tools to improve student achievement. * Administering frequent hybrid exams--which combine traditional classroom-summative tests [...]

Building a membership of active parents is a first step toward generating grassroots pressure for education reform. Ensuring that this membership base is effectively deployed is a distinct challenge. Political [...]

For decades, for-profit educational provision has been tolerated, often grudgingly. In the world of charter schooling, for-profit providers are lambasted and sometimes prohibited. In higher education, for-profit institutions have grown [...]

Introduction In the aftermath of President Barack Obama's 'education-obsessed' State of the Union address in February 2011, one savvy education policy observer declared that we are on the verge of [...]

For decades, for-profit educational provision has been merely tolerated, often grudgingly. In the world of charter schooling, for-profit providers are lambasted and sometimes prohibited. In higher education, for-profit institutions have [...]

Key Points * Implementing the Common Core State Standards brought major changes to assessments, instruction, and curriculum that most district officials consider beneficial. * The Common Core was far from [...]

August 2016 Key Points * Race-and income-based achievement gaps affect many schools, and racial mismatches between teachers and students can trigger problems of cross-cultural misunderstanding. * Developing a diverse cohort [...]

August 20, 2014 The celebration of the US economy's second-quarter growth 'rebound' to 4 percent will be short. The headline number's strength exaggerates the growth pace. It would be dangerous [...]

KEY POINTS * Federal, state, and local law enforcement gather and share information and intelligence using two often-siloed entities: the FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Forces (JTTFs) and fusion centers supported [...]

When it comes to federal funding of higher education, the government's approach to quality assurance and consumer protection is a public policy and regulatory failure by almost any measure. For [...]

Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. THE VEXED POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CLIMATE POLICY GHG Control and Energy Technology Push Adapting to Climate Change Solar Radiation Management 2. TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS Potential Effectiveness of [...]

How to contain the cost of colleges and universities is attracting much attention in higher education policy circles. The reasons for the attention are not hard to fathom. Students and [...]

It is sometimes stated that Medicare, and particularly the very large portion of the program that is run as an unmanaged fee-for-service insurance system, should not be singled out for [...]

As the debt-ceiling debate begins, congressional Republicans will demand spending cuts to counter any increase in the debt limit. These spending cuts are likely to include entitlement reforms, with Social Security, particularly, as a prime target. Most congressional Democrats might favor payroll tax increases to make Social Security solvent. But higher taxes discourage work and personal saving and encourage early retirement, with negative consequences for the economy. Although these increases clearly are not the best way to solve America's overall entitlement problem, they may be necessary to consider if an agreement is to be reached. If so, payroll tax increases should be levied across the board, not merely on high earners, to reduce the economic impact and make all Americans aware of the costs of the benefits they all receive., Even with the fiscal cliff agreement behind us, we can expect more budget negotiations as we inch closer to the debt ceiling. In exchange for increasing the debt limit, congressional [...]

We use a large project-level dataset to estimate the length of the planning period for commercial construction projects in the United States. We find that these time-to-plan lags are long, averaging about 17 months when we aggregate the projects without regard to size and more than 28 months when we weight the projects by their construction cost. The full distribution of timeto-plan lags is very wide, and we relate this variation to the characteristics of the project and its location. In addition, we show that time-to-plan lags lengthened by 3 to 4 months, on average, over our sample period (1999 to 2010). Regulatory factors are associated with variations in planning lags across locations, and we present anecdotal evidence that links at least some of the lengthening over time to heightened regulatory scrutiny., 1. Introduction The U.S. economy emerged from recession in mid-2009, but commercial construction activity did not hit bottom until nearly two years later and even now is up only slightly [...]

Contents Introduction and summary The challenge of intergovernmental trust The consequences of intergovernmental distrust the management imperatives of Title I fiscal regulations Budgeting as Sudoku Improving intergovernmental trust Conclusion Appendix: [...]

Contents Introduction and summary The states' Title I administrative responsibilities State capacity to implement Title I State efforts to assist low-performing districts and schools under Title I: A special problem [...]