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Doors and front-end modules Overview In a paper presented at an IQPC conference on door systems, Dura Automotive Systems referred to the move from using steel to aluminium, highlighting the [...]

Doors and front-end modules Overview In a paper presented at an IQPC conference on door systems, Dura Automotive Systems referred to the move from using steel to aluminium, highlighting the [...]

The presence of large and rising bilateral trade balances has raised concerns that asymmetric obstacles to trade may distort the international trade system. This chapter examines the drivers of bilateral [...]

Over the past three decades, the price of machinery and equipment has fallen dramatically relative to other prices in advanced and emerging market and developing economies alike. Could rising trade tensions, a slowing pace of trade integration, and sluggish productivity growth threaten this potential driver of investment going forward? This chapter sets out to answer this question by documenting key patterns in the price of capital goods, its drivers, and its impact on real investment rates. Worldwide, investment growth has slowed considerably since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. Yet, when compared with its levels in the early 1990s, real investment in machinery and equipment as a share of real GDP has increased significantly. The chapter finds that the decline in the relative price of tradable investment goods has provided sizable impetus to the rise in real investment rates in machinery and equipment over the past three decades. The broad-based decline in the relative price of machinery and equipment, in turn, has been driven by faster productivity growth in the capital-goods-producing sector and rising trade integration. Yet, emerging market and developing economies still face higher relative prices of tradable investment goods, consistent with their higher policy-induced trade costs and lower productivity in the tradable goods sector. Taken together, the chapter's findings provide an additional, often overlooked, argument in support of policies aimed at reducing trade barriers and reinvigorating international trade. The analysis also highlights the importance of continued technological progress to maintain the pace of decline in relative capital goods prices, which has provided an important tailwind to investment around the world., Introduction The investment needs of most emerging market and developing economies remain substantial. These economies still have only a small fraction of the capital available in advanced economies, even though [...]

This chapter investigates whether corporate market power has increased and, if so, what the macroeconomic implications are. The three main takeaways from a broad analysis of cross-country firm-level patterns are that (1) market power has increased moderately across advanced economies, as indicated by firms' price markups over marginal costs rising by close to 8 percent since 2000, but not in emerging market economies; (2) the increase has been fairly widespread across advanced economies and industries, but within them, it has been concentrated among a small fraction of dynamic--more productive and innovative---firms; and (3) although the overall macroeconomic implications have been modest so far, further increases in the market power of these already-powerful firms could weaken investment, deter innovation, reduce labor income shares, and make it more difficult for monetary policy to stabilize output. Even as rising corporate market power seems, so far, more reflective of 'winner-takes-most' by more productive and innovative firms than of weaker pro-competition policies, its challenging macroeconomic implications call for reforms that keep future market competition strong., Introduction Public debate about rising corporate power is mounting. Heightened interest has unfolded amid the rise of corporate giants, such as in the tech industry, and because of broader, often [...]

Recent Developments: Global Expansion Loses Steam Following a broad-based upswing in cyclical growth that lasted nearly two years, the global economic expansion decelerated in the second half of 2018. Activity [...]

Part 2 of 3 CHAPTER 2 THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY 10 YEARS AFTER THE 2008 FINANCIAL MELTDOWN This chapter takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the [...]

Part 1 of 3 CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions ix Further Information x Data xi Preface xii Foreword xiii Executive Summary xvi Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Recent Developments [...]

How easily do knowledge and technology flow across countries? Has this relationship changed over the past decades, a period when the world has become economically more integrated and the international competition landscape transformed? And did this help productivity growth, both at the country and the global level? These questions are important because technology tends to advance at different speeds across countries. As a consequence, making new technologies more widely available creates opportunities for raising productivity and incomes. Against this backdrop, the chapter offers new empirical evidence on the evolution of international technology diffusion and its impact on productivity. Using a rich data set on patents, cross-patent citations, research and development spending, and productivity, it finds that globalization has indeed intensified the global diffusion of knowledge and technology and helped spread growth potential across countries. The positive impact has been particularly strong for emerging market economies, fostering cross-country income convergence, thanks to their increased use of the available foreign knowledge. But technology leaders can also benefit from the innovation of others. The right set of policies maximizes benefits for all involved, including policies to enhance inter-connectedness and build absorptive capacity. An appropriate degree of protection for intellectual property rights is key to preserve the ability of innovators to recover costs while ensuring that new knowledge supports growth globally., Introduction Technology is a key driver of improvements in income and standard of living. Historically, technological developments have been concentrated in a few large industrialized economies (Figure 4.1). Therefore, the [...]

The declining share of manufacturing jobs in overall employment has been a concern for policymakers and the broader public alike in both advanced economies and some developing economies. This concern stems from the widely held belief that manufacturing plays a unique role as a catalyst for productivity growth and income convergence and a source of well-paid jobs for less-skilled workers. Against that backdrop, this chapter aims to provide new evidence on the role of manufacturing in the dynamics of output per worker and in the level and distribution of labor earnings. The two main takeaways from the analysis are that (1) a shift in employment from manufacturing to services need not hinder economy-wide productivity growth and the prospects for developing economies to gain ground toward advanced economy income levels, and (2) while the displacement of workers from manufacturing to services in advanced economies has coincided with a rise in labor income inequality, this increase was mainly driven by larger disparities in earnings across all sectors. These findings imply that the goal of supporting equitable growth would be better served by policy efforts to raise productivity across all sectors and make the gains from higher productivity more inclusive. Facilitating the reallocation of labor to productively dynamic sectors, including by removing barriers to entry and trade in the service sector and supporting the reskilling of workers affected by structural change, is crucial to raise productivity and combat inequality., Introduction In many countries, manufacturing appears to have faded as a source of jobs (Figure 3.1). Its share in employment in advanced economies has been declining for nearly five decades. [...]

Despite the acceleration in population aging in almost all advanced economies over the past decade, aggregate labor force participation rates show divergent trajectories. Headline numbers also hide strikingly different shifts in the labor force attachment of different groups of workers: participation has increased among prime-age women and, more recently, older workers, but it has fallen among the young and among prime-age men. This chapter finds that aging and the drag from the global financial crisis can explain a significant share of the decline in the participation of men during the past decade. However, the rising participation of women underscores the importance of other factors in shaping participation decisions. The analysis suggests that labor market policies and institutions, together with structural changes and gains in educational attainment, account for the bulk of the dramatic increase in the labor force attachment of prime-age women and older workers in the past three decades. At the same time, technological advances such as automation, while beneficial for the economy as a whole, have weighed moderately on participation rates. These findings highlight the considerable scope for policies to counteract the forces of aging by enabling those who are willing to work to do so. Investing in education and training, reforming the tax system, and reducing incentives to retire early--along with stronger policies that improve the job-matching process and help workers combine family and work life--can encourage people to join and remain in the workforce. Ultimately, however, the dramatic shifts in demographic structure could overwhelm the ability of policies to mitigate the effects of aging on labor force participation, which underscores the need to rethink migration policies to boost labor supply in advanced economies., Introduction Population growth in advanced economies is slowing, life expectancy is rising, and the number of elderly people is soaring. As these trends gather steam, the United Nations projects that [...]

World growth strengthened in 2017 to 3.8 percent, with a notable rebound in global trade. It was driven by an investment recovery in advanced economies, continued strong growth in emerging [...]

Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Prime Minister Essid's government was sworn in on February 6, 2015, following free and fair democratic elections. The current government has a five-year mandate and [...]

Post-reshuffle Stability May Not Last In early September, Prime Minister Youssef Chahed carried out a sweeping Cabinet reshuffle that included the replacement of 13 ministers. The move followed weeks of [...]

Table of Contents Country Update Country Forecast Map Highlights Current Data Comment & Analysis Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: National Unity Coalition (40% Probability) Second Most Likely Five-Year [...]

Morocco Table of Contents Country Update Country Forecast Map Highlights Current Data Comment & Analysis Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Mohamed (70% Probability) Second Most Likely Five-Year Regime [...]

Table of Contents Country Update Country Forecast Map Highlights Current Data Comment & Analysis Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Al-Sabah Family (65% Probability) Second Most Likely Five-Year Regime [...]

Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Designated by the U.S. government as a state sponsor of terrorism, Syria has been subject to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Export Administration Regulations (EAR) [...]

Table of Contents Country Update Country Forecast Map Highlights Current Data Comment & Analysis Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Military-Civilian (65% Probability) Second Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: [...]

This chapter documents the downward trend in the labor share of income since the early 1990s, as well as its heterogeneous evolution across countries, industries, and workers of different skill [...]

Emerging market and developing economies have become increasingly important in the global economy in recent years. They now account for more than 75 percent of global growth in output and [...]

Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent [...]

Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Improving the investment climate remains an important part of the SAG's broader program to liberalize the country's trade and investment regime, diversify an economy overly [...]

Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Designated by the U.S. government as a state sponsor of terrorism, Syria has been subject to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Export Administration Regulations (EAR) [...]

Spillovers are a key factor shaping the path of the global economy and the risks around it, but their nature is changing. The growing clout of emerging markets means that [...]

Inflation has declined markedly in many economies over the past few years. This chapter finds that disinflation is broad based across countries, measures, and sectors--albeit larger for tradable goods than [...]

Trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This chapter finds that the overall weakness in economic activity, in particular [...]

Recent Developments and Prospects The forces shaping the global outlook--both those operating over the short term and those operating over the long term--point to subdued growth for 2016 and a [...]

Iraq Table of Contents Country Forecast Map Highlights Current Data Comment & Analysis Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: National Unity Coalition (40% robability) Second Most Likely Five-Year Regime [...]

* Before the June 23 vote in the United Kingdom in favor of leaving the European Union, economic data and financial market developments suggested that the global economy was evolving [...]

CHAPTER 3 TIME FOR A SUPPLY-SIDE BOOST? MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF LABOR AND PRODUCT MARKET REFORMS IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES This chapter finds that product and labor market reforms raise output and [...]

CHAPTER 2 UNDERSTANDING THE SLOWDOWN IN CAPITAL FLOWS TO EMERGING MARKETS Net capital flows to emerging market economies have slowed since 2010, affecting all regions. This chapter shows that both [...]

Supporting a Smooth Transition to More Balanced Growth in China As discussed in the previous sections, the slowdown and rebalancing of the Chinese economy have substantial international ramifications. Even countries [...]

Annex 3.1. Data Data Sources The primary data sources for this chapter are the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, Information Notice System (INS), and Global Assumption and Global Economic [...]

Sectoral Reallocation during Commodity Booms: Case Studies Theoretical studies predict that the composition of economic activity will change following a boom in the commodity terms of trade, with a reallocation [...]

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among those emerging market and developing economies that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policymakers in these countries is whether commodity windfall gains and losses influence potential output or merely trigger transient fluctuations of actual output around an unchanged trend for potential output. The analysis in this chapter suggests that both actual and potential output move together with the commodity terms of trade but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract almost 1 percentage point annually from the average rate of economic growth in commodity exporters over 2015-17 as compared with 2012-14. In exporters of energy commodities, the drag is estimated to be larger--about 2 1/4 percentage points on average over the same period. The projected drag on the growth of potential output is about one-third of that for actual output., Annex 1.1. Regional Projections The tables in this annex formerly appeared in Chapter 2, 'Country and Regional Perspectives,' which has now been integrated into Chapter 1. Beginning with this World [...]

Production in the Oil Sector Growth in oil production is not expected to slow significantly in the short term as a result of the recent oil price slump. Historically, episodes [...]

The Stock Dimension of Imbalances Going beyond flow analysis, the external balance sheet of a country--its international investment position in the balance of payments statistics--is another important dimension in global [...]

An Empirical Exercise for Advanced Economies The analysis begins by assessing the macroeconomic impact of public investment shocks in advanced economies, using the approach of Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012, 2013). [...]

Box 1.SF.1. The Trade Implications of the U.S. Shale Gas Boom The shale gas boom has led to a debate in the United States about whether relaxing the restrictions on [...]

Iraq Country Forecast Highlights MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: National Unity Coalition 50% (40%) Five-Year: National Unity Coalition 40% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Financial Direct Export [...]

Highlights MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: Mohamed 75% Five-Year: Mohamed 70% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Turmoil Financial Direct Export Transfer Investment Market 18-Month: Moderate B- B [...]

Egypt Table of Contents Country Update Country Forecast Map Highlights Current Data Comment & Analysis Forecast Scenarios Most Likely Five-Year Regime Scenario: Military-Civilian (70% Probability) Second Most Likely Five-Year Regime [...]

Highlights MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: National Unity Coalition 40% Five-Year: National Unity Coalition 40% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Turmoil Financial Direct Export Transfer Investment Market [...]

Climate for Investment & Trade Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Improving the investment climate continues to be an important part of the SAG's broader program to liberalize the country's trade [...]

Syria Country Conditions Climate for Investment & Trade Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Designated by the U.S. government as a state sponsor of terrorism, Syria has been subject to the [...]

Highlights MOST LIKELY REGIMES AND THEIR PROBABILITIES 18-Month: Mohamed 75% Five-Year: Mohamed 70% FORECASTS OF RISK TO INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS Turmoil Financial Direct Export Transfer Investment Market 18-Month: Moderate B- B [...]

Climate for Investment & Trade Overview Openness to Foreign Investment Business Sectors: Banking. The Central Bank of Egypt has not issued a new commercial banking license since 1979. The only [...]

9: Other Adhesives Dow Automotive Systems is a provider of polyurethanes, elastomers, films, fluids, adhesives, emissions solutions and acoustic-management materials to the global transportation industry. That includes supply to OEMs [...]

BASF Overview BASF's portfolio ranges from chemicals, plastics, performance products and crop protection products to oil and gas. Here, we set out the company's automotive operations and technical advances in [...]