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The paper by Bordalo et al. explores the role of long-term earnings growth rate (LTG) forecasts by equity analysts in understanding fluctuations in financial-market variables and macro aggregates. The authors use survey data from the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System (IBES) to analyze the relationship between LTG forecasts and various economic indicators. They find that LTG forecasts can predict future stock returns, changes in interest rates and credit spreads, and investment behavior. However, the paper also acknowledges the need for further research to fully understand the implications of these findings and to distinguish the effects of LTG from other factors influencing the economy. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses a paper that explores the impact of expectations of future earnings growth on asset prices and investment. The paper provides a measure for subjective expectations and identifies empirical regularities. While the article raises some challenges to the authors' interpretation, it acknowledges the paper's contributions in providing a proxy for expectations and advancing the understanding of diagnostic expectations and overextrapolation. The text also discusses the roles of speculation and bubbles in asset pricing, the use of surveys to calculate earnings forecasts, and the disconnect between asset prices and fundamentals. It explores the concept of overreaction in expectations and suggests further research to quantify the relative contribution of overextrapolation and animal spirits. The paper finds that fluctuations in long-term growth in earnings contribute significantly to fluctuations in asset prices and investment, but not to other macroeconomic variables. The author suggests that these findings support the idea of "animal spirits" as the main driver of these fluctuations. [Extracted from the article]

This article explores the concept of monopsony power in labor markets and its impact on the gap between workers' marginal product and their wage. The paper introduces several deviations from a perfectly competitive labor market, including search frictions, differences in amenity values, bilateral monopoly in wage setting, a small number of firms, and no worker and firm mobility across markets. The authors propose a model that incorporates firm granularity and partially directed search, which affects workers' mobility and wage distribution. The empirical analysis examines the relationship between labor-market concentration and various labor-market statistics, but acknowledges the potential influence of spatial sorting on the results. The paper concludes by suggesting the need for additional data sources to better understand the impact of market structure on wages and career profiles. [Extracted from the article]

This document summarizes a paper by Acemoglu, Autor, and Patterson that investigates the connection between productivity growth and innovation spillovers from upstream suppliers. The authors argue that balanced productivity growth in upstream industries maximizes innovation spillovers and contributes to overall productivity growth. However, the document raises concerns about the timing of the productivity slowdown analyzed in the paper, as it contradicts other data sets that show a productivity speedup during that time. It also questions the quality of the data used and suggests using an alternative data set for more accurate results. The document concludes that further research is needed to fully understand the relationship between unbalanced growth and innovation spillovers. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses a research paper by Amiti et al. that examines the contribution of supply-side disruptions and a tight labor market to the recent surge in inflation. The authors use a two-sector New Keynesian model and find that these factors account for about 2 percentage points of the rise in inflation. The paper also includes empirical evidence supporting the theoretical model. The discussion raises questions about the model's assumptions and its ability to explain wage inflation and the effects of monetary policy. Overall, the paper provides interesting analysis and results that can inspire further research. [Extracted from the article]

The article titled "Comment" summarizes and analyzes a research paper that explores the relationship between industry total factor productivity (TFP) growth and the variance of supplier TFP growth. The authors of the comment agree with the original paper's findings that there is a negative relationship between industry TFP growth and the cross-sectional variance of supplier TFP growth. However, they find that when using an adjusted TFP measure, the relationship becomes less significant. The comment also suggests an alternative approach that includes own-industry employment growth as an additional factor, which reduces the coefficient of interest. The authors of the comment conclude that the Neoclassical channel is present in the data, but there are limitations to their analysis. [Extracted from the article]

The paper examines the drivers of US inflation in 2021, focusing on the effects of input substitution. The authors develop a model that incorporates various shocks, such as higher import prices and lower foreign competition. They find that these shocks, along with accommodative monetary policy, explain the significant increase in core consumer price index inflation during that period. The paper highlights the importance of parameters governing the elasticity of substitution in determining the quantitative implications of the model. The authors argue that the original view that inflation led by supply-chain disruption should be transitory ignores the global nature of the shock and the muted effect of substitution. The findings suggest that disaggregation and a low elasticity of substitution can raise inflation in a nonlinear world. [Extracted from the article]

The contribution by Kremer, Willis, and You revisit cross-country convergence patterns over the past 6 decades. They provide evidence that the lack of convergence that applied early in the sample has now been replaced by modest convergence. They also argue this relationship is driven by convergence in various determinants of economic growth across countries and a flattening of the relationship between these determinants and growth. Although the patterns documented by the authors are intriguing, our reanalysis finds that these results are driven by the lack of country fixed effects controlling for unobserved determinants of gross domestic product per capita across countries. We show theoretically and empirically that failure to include country fixed effects will create a bias in convergence coefficients toward zero and this bias can be time varying, even when the underlying country-level parameters are stable. These results are relevant not just for the current paper but also for the convergence literature more generally. Our reanalysis finds no evidence of major changes in patterns of convergence and, more importantly, no flattening of the relationship between institutional variables and economic growth. Focusing on democracy, we show that this variable's impact continues to be precisely estimated and if anything a little larger than at the beginning of the sample. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document is a discussion among economists about a research paper on total factor productivity (TFP) and its measurement. The researchers used patent data in addition to existing data sets to analyze TFP growth. They found that TFP growth would have been higher in the absence of sectorial imbalances. The discussion also touched on topics such as bottlenecks, vertical integration, the role of large firms, and the divergence between different data sets. The researchers acknowledged the limitations of their model and the need for further research. [Extracted from the article]

The article discusses a paper by Ricardo De la O and Sean Myers that examines the relationship between cash-flow growth expectations and movements in the S&P 500 price-dividend and price-earnings ratios. The authors find that short-run expectations play a more important role than long-run expectations, which contradicts previous research. However, the authors argue that long-term expectations are key to understanding market inefficiency. The article also addresses the predictability of forecast errors and the construction of aggregate long-term growth forecasts. Additionally, it explores the influence of analysts' forecasts on market behavior and the role of financial market frictions in explaining the comovement of news shocks and the business cycle. [Extracted from the article]

This document contains abstracts of several research papers. The first paper explores the factors that contribute to monopsony power and wage inequality in concentrated markets. The second paper examines the drivers of inflation in the United States, including supply chain disruptions and shifts in consumption patterns. The third paper suggests that the unbalanced distribution of innovation across sectors has contributed to the US productivity slowdown. The fourth paper highlights the importance of accounting for loan sales and shadow bank activity in macroeconomic models focused on bank balance sheet lending. The final paper explores the relationship between long-term profit expectations and fluctuations in the stock market and real economic activity. [Extracted from the article]

The NBER's 38th Annual Conference on Macroeconomics featured five research papers and a panel discussion on the topic of inflation. One paper explored the relationship between firm market power and stagnant real wage growth, finding that workers are paid less than their marginal product due to factors such as idiosyncratic preferences, market power, and search frictions. Another paper examined the factors behind the rise in inflation and the Federal Reserve's response, finding that supply chain disruptions and labor disutility shocks were key drivers. A third paper proposed that bottlenecks in supply chains can slow aggregate productivity growth, while a fourth paper challenged mainstream approaches to modeling business cycles by showing that expectations of long-term earnings growth can explain fluctuations in asset prices and economic activity. The discussants raised questions and offered alternative explanations for some of the findings in each paper. [Extracted from the article]