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The Koshi Basin, spread across China, Nepal and India, is perceived as having high potential for hydropower and irrigation development, both seen as ways to promote economic development in the region. As climate change (CC) is likely to impact future water resources, it is very important to consider CC in future planning. This paper quantifies and assesses the past and projected future spatial and temporal water balances in the Koshi Basin. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was set up, calibrated and validated using measured daily flow data from the basin from 1999 to 2006. The CC analysis is based on the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The delta change approach was used to generate daily future time series climate data for 2021-2050, considering historical data from 1998-2008 as reference. Results show that the annual average precipitation, actual evapotranspiration (ET) and net water yield for the reference period are 1,720 mm, 520 mm and 1,124 mm, respectively, with over 75% of precipitation and flow occurring during the monsoon season. The precipitation and net water yield are lowest in the transmountain region and the Tibetan plateau. The values are highest in the mountain region, followed by the hills and Indo-Gangetic Plains. Approximately 65% of average annual precipitation is converted to flows, indicating high water availability. Actual ET, which indicates water use by plants, is highest in the Indo-Gangetic Plains region due to the presence of irrigated agriculture and a few forested mountain watersheds. There is, therefore, a clear mismatch between the area where water availability is highest (mountains) and where water use is highest (Indo-Gangetic Plains). As most of the water from the mountain and hill regions eventually flows down to the plains, the mountain and hill regions in Nepal are important for maintaining agriculture in the plains in both Nepal and India. Flow analyses show that high-flow pulses (exceeding 75% of daily flows) occur two to five times annually and last for 2 to 20 days during the monsoon season. Extreme low flows occur two to nine times annually and last up to 25 days during the dry season. These results indicate the high temporal variability of flows in the basin. The information on these extreme weather events could be very useful in water-induced disaster management in this region, and also for planning longterm hydraulic structures. The frequent occurrences of both high- and low-flow events demonstrate the existing vulnerability of the region to both floods and droughts, leading to a very risk-prone livelihood system. The CC projections show an increasing trend in precipitation and net water yield for most of the basin, except the transmountain region. Actual ET also shows an increasing trend for both CC pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) throughout the basin. Comparison of flow ranges between the past and projected data indicates that future changes during the dry season are within the past data ranges. However, the future monsoon flows will be higher than the past as demonstrated by higher averages as well as maximum flows. An increasing trend is seen in the high-flow pulse frequency, and occurrences of high flows are shifting towards the latter part of the monsoon. Therefore, flooding occurrences in the monsoon are expected to increase with CC. Results also show that the seasonal variation in contribution to annual flow volume at the outlet of the Koshi Basin for the reference and future periods remained very similar, with over 75% of the total annual flow occurring within the monsoon season. Therefore, the monsoon will remain the main hydrological driver, variability will continue to be high, future dry seasons will be similar to the past dry seasons, and future monsoons will likely be stronger and wetter with increased flood risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese state and society are frequently engaged in an area of shared concern: the increasing threat of climate change. This report explores how a specific set of societal actors - environmental non-governmental organisations (ENGOs) in China - interact with state actors in dealing with issues of climate change mitigation. Drawing on two case studies of Chinese ENGOs, China Civil Climate Action Network (C-CAN) and China Youth Climate Action Network (CYCAN), this report sheds light on how societal corporatist mechanisms and state corporatist mechanisms are evident in the ENGOs' agendas. It asks to what extent Chinese ENGOs can set and pursue their own agendas, and to what extent it is the state or other factors that determines those agendas for them. Throughout the report examples of how state corporate mechanisms are still evident for social organisations' expansion, legitimacy and credibility in China are given. It further shows that the growth of societal corporate mechanism that target combating climate change is gaining a stronger foothold and withhold the ENGOs' political interaction possibilities, especially through the media, financial independence and international climate change negotiations. Furthermore, the report contributes to research on the autonomy for Chinese ENGOs and elucidates how they are balancing on the thin border between setting agendas that do not threaten the state's authority and agendas that can echo and gain credibility within a less climate change concerned Chinese society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and policies are frequently invoked in Congressional debates over appropriate climate change policy. This background report describes Chinese GHG emissions and some of its mitigation efforts. It touches briefly on China's international cooperation. China and the United States are the leading emitters of GHGs, together responsible for about 35% of global emissions. A lack of official and reliable data makes any ranking of country emissions difficult to verify for now. China has released one GHG inventory, for the year 1994. Chinese CO2 emissions are high due to the country's large population, strong capital investment and urbanization, and heavy reliance on coal, but are constrained by low incomes. Current forecasts are speculative but foresee Chinese emissions to grow rapidly with its economy. In June 2007, China released its National Climate Change Program, a plan to address climate change. The Program outlines activities both to mitigate GHG emissions and to adapt to the consequences of potential climate change. Within the Program, perhaps most challenging is China's goal to lower energy intensity 20% by 2010. The country fell short of its annual milestones, set in energy policies, in both 2006 and 2007; in July 2008, Premier Wen Jiabao and the State Council warned that meeting its energy intensity and emission reduction goals "remained an arduous task." Related goals include more than doubling renewable energy use by 2020, expansion of nuclear power, closure of inefficient industrial facilities, tightened efficiency standards for buildings and appliances, and forest coverage expanded to 20%. The Chinese, and some international observers, claim that China has been more proactive on climate change than some developed countries, though others are cautious of China's ability to achieve its goals. Meanwhile, Chinese business opportunities in clean and low carbon energy are expanding rapidly. Chinese negotiators adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated" responsibilities, agreed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. They argue that emissions per person in China are low and that raising incomes must be their highest priority, and that industrialized countries bear primary responsibility for the historical buildup of GHGs in the atmosphere and should thus lead in mitigating emissions domestically. Industrialized countries also, they say, should assist developing countries to mitigate emissions and adapt to coming change. Debate on potential climate change legislation in the United States has been influenced by China's surging GHG emissions, and uncertainty over how and when China might alter that trend. There is concern that strong domestic action taken without Chinese reciprocity would unfairly advantage China in global trade, and fail to slow significantly the growth of atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The governments of both China and the United States have indicated some closure of their gap on future actions to address climate change. Some observers believe that the next Administration and the 111th Congress will seek more active measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]