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The assessment of future precipitation variations prevailing in an area is essential for the research regarding climate and climate change. The current paper focuses on 3 selected areas in Greece that present different climatic characteristics due to their location and aims to assess and compare the future variation of annual and seasonal precipitation. Future precipitation data from the ENSEMBLES anthropogenic climate-change (ACC) global simulations and the Climate version of the Local Model (CLM) were obtained and analyzed. The climate simulations were performed for the future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under the A1B and B1 scenarios. Mann–Kendall test was applied to investigate possible trends. Spatial distribution of precipitation was performed using a combination of dynamic and statistical downscaling techniques and Kriging method within ArcGIS 10.2.1. The results indicated that for both scenarios, reference periods and study areas, precipitation is expected to be critically decreased. Additionally, Mann–Kendall test application showed a strong downward trend for every study area. Furthermore, the decrease in precipitation for the Ardas River basin characterized by the continental climate will be tempered, while in the Sperchios River basin it will be smoother due to the influence of some minor climatic variations in the basins' springs in the highlands where milder conditions occur. Precipitation decrease in the Geropotamos River basin which is characterized by Mediterranean climate will be more vigorous. B1 scenario appeared more optimistic for the Ardas and Sperchios River basins, while in the Geropotamos River basin, both applied scenarios brought similar results, in terms of future precipitation response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is dealing with the assessment of climate change scenarios on selected meteorological variables at the Lake Karla watershed, central Greece and it is a contribution to the "HYDROMENTOR" research project. A statistical downscaling method has been employed to estimate monthly precipitation and temperature time series for future climate periods. The outputs of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling Analysis Global Circulation Model CGCM3 were applied for three socioeconomic scenarios, namely SRES B 1, SRES A 1B and SRES A2 for the assessment of climate change impact on precipitation and temperature. The methodology has been developed for the historical period 1980-2000 and applied for two future periods 2030-2050 and 2080-2100. Historical and future periods were compared for monthly and annual basis using various statistical criteria such as the mean and standard deviation. Results showed that climate change will have minor impacts on precipitation and even smaller impacts on temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is a global problem and one of the major environmental concerns of today. It is also related to economic losses in many ways. It is evident that the worldwide research focuses on measuring the economic consequences of climate change. The present paper introduces a reverse point of view. Specifically, it attempts to estimate the environmental change in Greece through the economic losses caused by the rural production damages and the resulting insurance compensations. For this purpose, the data available by the Greek Agricultural Insurance Organization (GAIO) has been used, considering that if we assume that the climate has begun to change, these changes surely will affect the functioning of GAIO, which is the main institution for the insurance of the rural production in the country. For the statistical analysis, fit-for-use non-parametric tests were used and the main conclusion is that there was an increasing shift in the frequency of appearance of extreme phenomena that is related with atmospheric precipitation and more precisely with the rain and the hail, as well as an increase of the recorded windstorms in most regions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to study the spatial and temporal variability of the Aridity Index (AI) in Greece, per decade, during the 50-year period (1951–2000). Besides, the projected changes in ensemble mean AI between the period 1961–1990 (reference period) and the periods 2021–2050 (near future) and 2071–2100 (far future) along with the inter-model standard deviations were presented, based on the simulation results, derived from a number of Regional Climatic Models (RCMs), within the ENSEMBLE European Project. The projection of the future climate was done under SRES A1B. The climatic data used, concern monthly precipitation totals and air temperature from 28 meteorological stations (22 stations from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and 6 stations from neighboring countries, taken from the Monthly Climatic Data for the World). The estimation of the AI was carried out based on the potential evapotranspiration (PET) defined by Thornthwaite (1948). The data processing was done by the application of the statistical package R-project and the Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The results of the analysis showed that, within the examined period (1951–2000), a progressive shift from the “humid” class, which characterized the wider area of Greece, towards the “sub-humid” and “semi-arid” classes appeared in the eastern Crete Island, the Cyclades complex, the Evia and Attica, that is mainly the eastern Greece. The most significant change appears during the period 1991–2000. The future projections at the end of twentieth century, using ensemble mean simulations from 8 RCMs, show that drier conditions are expected to establish in regions of Greece (Attica, eastern continental Greece, Cyclades, Dodecanese, eastern Crete Island and northern Aegean). The inter-model standard deviation over these regions ranges from 0.02 to 0.05 against high values (0.09–0.15) illustrated in western mountainous continental Greece, during 2021–2050. Higher values of inter-model standard deviation appear in the 2071–2100 ranging from 0.02 to 0.10 reaching even 0.50 over mountainous regions of the country. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Thermaikos Gulf is a marine ecosystem of major importance, not only environmental, but also due to the various socioeconomic activities associated with the area. The physical characteristics of the gulf''s waters were studied, analyzing in situ measurements of oceanographic parameters, collected during 5 oceanographic surveys from 1994 to 2007, on the same grid of 26 sampling stations. Aim of this paper is the detection and description of the main changes (seasonal and interannual) in the water masses'' characteristics that are related to the seawater quality of the North Thermaikos. The connection between the main forcing factors and the major circulation patterns is also under investigation. The interannual analysis of the collected data revealed the existence of strong seasonal fluctuations that present significant deviations from a mean seasonal pattern in specific periods. A general decreasing trend of the salinities of the domain is observed during the study period. At the same time, a strong relation between open Aegean Sea waters and riverine freshwater fluxes is identified, factors that significantly influence stratification, circulation and renewal of the gulf. Based on the thermohaline properties, two dense water formation events (February 2000 and 2005), not previously reported, are detected and analyzed for the first time. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper deals with the most recent trends in meteorological and hydrological variables, which include air temperature and precipitation ( P), potential and actual (ET) evapotranspiration, surface runoff (RO), water recharge into the soil ( R) and water loss from the soil ( L). Most hydrological variables were calculated via Palmer's algorithm. For this purpose, two rank-based statistical tests (the Mann-Kendall (MK) and a change-point analysis (CPA) approach) and the basic linear regression-based model were applied on the weekly precipitation and temperature from 17 stations all over Greece, during 1961-2006. Only in winter, all variables except for R, which showed no clear signal, presented downward trends. The declining trends of P and L in spring and summer were counterbalanced by reductions in RO (and R in the case of summer) as opposed to increases in ET. In autumn, the declining tendencies of P and L were offset by RO reductions and R increases. Annually, the trends in water cycle components were analogous to that of spring, summer and autumn. The number of stations with statistically significant (at 95%) trends greatly varied with season and meteorological/hydrological variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper reviews all available stable isotopic data concerning precipitation and spring water in Greece, from the 1960s until today. Spatial variability is investigated in order to provide basic information and identify the locally significant parameters that affect isotopic distributions. The area of interest was partitioned into eight sections according to geographical location and climatic characteristics. The distance of the station from the sea and the altitude are the main factors imprinted in the isotopic signature of precipitation. Local meteoric water meteoric line (LMWL) for precipitation and spring water were calculated for each section and for Greece as a whole. Precipitation LMWLs differ from the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) in various ways across Greece. Elevated deuterium excess values are observed, probably due to water vapour originating from the Aegean or the Mid-eastern Mediterranean. Spring LMWLs are more or less consistent throughout the country. Furthermore, a high resolution map of precipitation and freshwater spring (Cl− <200ppm and T <25°C) δ 18O reveals several interesting features such as an orographic shadow effect induced by the Pindos Mountains, a strong climatic signal in southern Greece and a local city-microclimate effect around Athens. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper describes a weather radar siting procedure for a mountainous region in Greece using GIS. The established radar siting objectives consist of the detection and tracking of storms (rainstorms, hailstorms, and snowstorms) requiring operations at a low elevation angle as well as the detection of the vertical structure and evolution of a storm. Moreover, the objective includes precipitation intensity measurements and areal precipitation analysis, which is related to the incidence of permanent echoes and obstructions as well as to the maximum range achievable. Two types of siting criteria are employed; mainly strategic or regional criteria, and local criteria. The strategic criteria mainly consist of set back and communication considerations and local radar siting criteria include the area, geometry or morphology as well as local logistics and practical considerations. In this study, digitized maps of 1:100,000 scale with 100m contour interval are used. These digitized contour data are used to build the Digital Terrain Model (DTM, raster image) and produce the three-dimensional visualization of the area. The potential sites for the weather radar installation are identified on this three-dimensional DTM. The potential radar sites are located in complex mountainous areas, which results in additional selection difficulties. The selected site and its alternative fulfill the established purposes using the above-mentioned criteria. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The aim of the present paper is to analyze the results of the urban heat island research for a coastal densely built small Mediterranean town namely Hania, Crete, Greece. The specific research targets to verify the existence, the intensity, the size and the form of the urban heat island phenomenon in the specific region as well as to understand its correlation with the local weather conditions. Nine urban and three rural meteorological stations are used for this study. Temperature and relative humidity measurements are collected from May 26, 2007 until October 24, 2007. In parallel, meteorological data including wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, sunlight and precipitation for the specific region are collected and elaborated for cross-correlation with the appearance of the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. During summer period, where the temperature is high, the UHI takes its maximum intensity, of about 8°C. Also, the form of the UHI is strongly influenced from the wind speed and direction. The northern winds expand the UHI front, while the western winds contribute to the UHI reduction. Finally the Discomfort Index (DI) is calculated for the 2007 summer period to indicate the outdoor living conditions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper presents a method for grouping weather types that occur over an area, which combines meteorological parameters, reflecting air mass characteristics at the surface, with synoptic conditions prevailing over an area. Five quantitative meteorological parameters are used in the procedure: temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine duration. In addition, two qualitative variables related to the prevailing circulation type and whether it is cyclonic or anticyclonic are also included. The study period is 43 years (1958–2000) and is restricted to the cold and wet sub-period of the year, December–March. Weather types are defined using a relatively new method of cluster analysis, two-step cluster analysis, which allows the simultaneous use of both quantitative and qualitative variables. The aim of the present study is to distinguish primary weather patterns so that the investigation into the relationship between weather patterns and circulation types will be more effective. For Athens, six weather types are created, whereas for Thessaloniki five are produced. For both stations, only two weather types are related to anticyclonic situations. The majority of the identified weather types correspond to a distinctive and well-defined synoptic situation. Each weather type differs from the others, not only in terms of the circulation conditions referring to it, but also with reference to meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation. The results of the evaluation of the aforementioned procedure are considered to be highly satisfactory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper lies in the identification of possible significant linear trends at monthly, seasonal and annual timescales in the Mediterranean during the second half of the 20th century. Monthly and daily records of 63 stations have been used to elaborate several precipitation indices: sum of daily precipitation (SDP) for rainfall >0.1 mm, >10 mm and >95th percentile, of number of rainy days (RD) >0.1 mm and >10 mm and of mean daily precipitation (MDP) >0.1 mm and >10 mm. For each index the stations have been gathered together by Rotated Principal Component Analyses to determine 8 sub-areas which can be considered as identical for all the timescales at the spatial scale of the research. Trends have been estimated from the scores of each eigenvector retained in all RPCAs. They are mainly non existant or non significant decreasing, even if a few monthly trends appear to be significantly diminishing, primarily during winter months, March in the Atlantic region, October in the Mediterranean Spain, December in the Lions and Genoa Gulfs, January, winter and the year in Greece, winter and the year in Italy and winter in the Near East and increasing in April in the two gulfs. Correlation coefficients between SDP>0.1 mm and other indices have been computed: the significant trends seem mainly related to RD>10 mm, which represents a high percentage of the total rainfall amount. Greece is remarkable: SDP>0.1 mm and >10 mm decrease significantly during January, winter, the rainy season and the entire year whereas SDP>95th percentile increases significantly, in accordance with the climatic change scenarios for the end of this century as does the decreasing of the total monthly and seasonal rainfall. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, using 20 year mean monthly precipitation totals from 54 stations, the general statistics for the time and space distribution of precipitation in northwest Greece is at first described. Precipitation varies from about 1000 mm at the coast to 2500 mm on the mountains, with a large variability. Then, the intra-annual variation is studied, using Fourier analysis. This variation is described well by two harmonics, explaining about 90% of the total variance. The first harmonic, over 80% of the variance, shows a maximum from late December (coastal areas) to early January (continental areas) and is caused by the northwest Mediterranean depression activity. The second harmonic exhibits maxima in May and November, also delayed in the continental areas, and is mainly caused by upper air troughs and instability. The spatial distribution of precipitation is then studied by using factor analysis. The 12 months of a year are classified in two parts corresponding to two statistically significant factors, explaining 88.5% of the total variance. Finally, the combination of positive and negative standardized scores of the two factors showed that northwest Greece is characterized by four precipitation regimes, depending on the combination of depression activity, the effects of the sea and of topography. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of the present paper is to perform statistical analysis and modeling of actual precipitation data collected in 20 stations in Greece. Although our analysis and statistical modeling procedure utilizes precipitation data from Greece, the same methodology can be applied to similar data or other environmental variables. We identify the probability density function (PDF) that best characterizes the behavior of the data, that being the Frechet PDF, a member of the family of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) family of distributions. In addition to obtaining useful information, such as the expected rainfall along with its variance and confidence limits, we are able to cluster the stations into 7 groups that have similar response. Furthermore, we introduce time dependence into the Frechet probability distribution by characterizing the location and scale parameters to be functions of time and other well known, but more complex covariates such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This approach enables a more flexible and realistic model to quantify the uncertainty inherent into the system, and allows for more complex dependence patterns. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]