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In 1973 Sweden entered into a free-trade agreement with the EEC. This meant that the EEC principle of prohibition of cartels met with the Swedish principle of abuse. Paper production was heavily cartelised in Sweden and Scandinavian export cartels exercised a strong influence over EEC markets. The problem is analysed in terms of legitimacy – how did the Swedish actors make their claims legitimate? When analysing the arguments used in the negotiations it becomes clear that the Swedish negotiators claimed that paper cartels and no tariffs provided more general utility whereas the EEC argument was that cartels were principally wrong and that the EEC utility was more important than the potential general utility. Since Sweden did not have the upper hand in the discussions the outcome became that the Scandinavian export cartels were formally dismantled and free trade for paper products had to wait for 11 years. When it comes to the actual effects, Swedish paper export could continue in much the same way as before. A process initiated by EC against the Scandinavian newspaper cartels ended up in a compromise founded on a common skepticism towards North American producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the total factor productivity (TFP) of the pulp and paper industry in three Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec) and in three United States (US) states that are contiguously located south of the border (Washington, Illinois, and Maine) over the period of 1971 to 2005. We find that the industry in the three Canadian provinces had much higher TFP growth rates in the era following the Free-Trade Agreement (FTA) signed in 1988. In terms of productivity level, this relative TFP surge allowed the industry in Ontario and British Columbia to move ahead of Illinois and Washington, respectively; however, Quebec trailed further Maine, which is the overall leader in the sample. Our results in this particular case reveal that the Canadian pulp and paper industry did not contribute to the overall Canada-US productivity gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For fifty years, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) system has fostered the development of liberal multilateralism. Originally a short, fifty-page set of rules that governed trade between just twenty-three Contracting Parties, and applying only provisionally because of the failure of several countries to ratify it, the GATT system has evolved into one of the world's most well-developed international organizations. The GATT’s organizational successor, the World Trade Organization (WTO), boasts over 130 members that have ratified its founding charter and thousands of pages of substantive rules. Perhaps most significantly, the Uruguay Round negotiations bestowed upon the GATT/WTO system revised rules of government, which some have predicted will vastly improve the regime's institutional strength. With new dispute settlement rules, clarified rules of procedure for decision-making by the Members, and the formal establishment of a genuine secretariat, many claim that the world's preeminent trade institution is stronger than ever. Their hope is that this revitalized institution can govern itself effectively, advancing international political order and rules-based liberal multilateralism.This paper considers the possible effects of China’s accession to the WTO on the WTO’s institutional strength—how China’s accession could affect WTO governmental processes and the extent of political support for the organization from leading Western trading countries. During the past ten years, in which China has (of course) not been a GATT Contracting Party or a WTO Member, there has been substantial “systems friction” between China and some Western trading countries. The term “systems friction,” coined by Sylvia Ostry , is usually thought of as political tension between countries attributable to their economic interaction in the context of fundamental differences in the organization and operating principles of their respective political-economic structures. There may be different forms of systems friction, depending on whether the interacting political-economic structures can change, how willing countries are to change political-economic structures in order to accommodate other players, and whether the structures simply have not yet been subject to negotia-tion. The systems friction now associated with China-trade embodies elements of all three forms. This raises the question of whether WTO accession for China is likely to reduce and contain the systems friction, or weaken the WTO as an institution, or both.

Knowledge is an essential ingredient for economic development, growth and gaining a competitive advantage. In order to produce novel and valuable knowledge, it is advantageous, perhaps vital, to rely on insights gained from prior research efforts. Those knowledge spillovers (KS) provide the rationale for sustained economic growth and produce unique place-based knowledge spaces. Due to the spatial embeddedness and stickiness of knowledge, most investigations mainly pay attention to the localized nature of KS, but what about those spillovers from other jurisdictions, or perhaps even from across the globe? To analyse the role played by international KS, the present study investigates to what extent international KS shape the evolution of the UK science and technology space. The first step involves creating knowledge spaces following the methodology outlined by Kogler et al. (2013; 2017) for the period 2006-15. Subsequently, we are following the paper trail of publications and patents developed by UK authors and inventors to depict to what degree international KS in specific science and technology domains have contributed to the production of novel knowledge in the UK. The results indicate that four out of five citations made in publications and patents in the UK are the works of authors and inventors residing elsewhere. This has important policy implications considering recent tendencies to curtail trade and the free movement of labour, all of which contribute to the diffusion of knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering that upstream monopoly will lead to an exponential increase in the loss of social welfare, this paper investigates the impact of intermediate goods tariff concession on the welfare loss of manufacturing enterprises from the perspective of input trade liberalization and effective market power. It has been discovered that input trade liberalization significantly reduces the welfare loss of manufacturing enterprises. Due to the game condition in which oligopolies check each other and small businesses "gain from fishing", the inhibitory impact increases as market share decreases. The mechanism test demonstrates that input trade liberalization boosts the effect of technical competition and minimizes welfare loss through promoting market development degree and reducing factor distortion. In addition, this paper also finds that the effect of input trade liberalization on high monopolistic power enterprises is obviously stronger than that of low monopolistic power enterprises. Furthermore, the impact on non-high-tech industries and capital-intensive enterprises is significant, while that on high-tech industries and labor-intensive industries is not. Therefore, the welfare loss should be investigated from the dual perspective of market structure and marker power. Competitiveness has an important effect, while trade liberalization of intermediate inputs has a pivotal effect on promoting market development and improving resource allocation efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deglobalization and elevated inflation are important features of the current world economy. Will the reversing of globalization affect the level and formation mechanism of inflation in the countries (or regions)? This paper selects 163 sample economies and constructs an index system in measurement of globalization. On such basis, it integrates the index system into the hybrid Phillips curve under the condition of open economy to study the influence of globalization on inflation and the logical mechanism and to further evaluate the driving effect of deglobalization on global inflation. The result shows a deflation effect of globalization, and the effect decreases first and then grow as the globalization level of a country (or region) improves. To further investigate the formation mechanism of inflation, the paper decomposes inflation into inflation trend and inflation cycle. As far as inflation trend is concerned, trade globalization marked by participation in global value chain is the main driver of downward inflation trend in developed economies, while globalization of information and finance is the primary driver of downward trend in emerging and developing economies. As to inflation cycle, trade globalization makes inflation cycle of the countries (or regions) more sensitive to price of international commodities and forms a linkage through trade network. Since the outbreak of the major public health emergency in 2020, the reversing of globalization drove up inflation of the countries (or regions), and those with higher participation in global value chain have higher level of inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the asymmetric effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation for a small open economy, namely South Africa, over the period 1970Q1–2020Q1. Design/methodology/approach: A threshold vector autoregressive model that allows parameters to switch according to whether a threshold variable crosses an estimated threshold is employed to address the objective of this paper. The threshold value is determined endogenously using the Hansen (1996) test. Generalized impulse responses introduced by Koop et al. (1996) are used to study the effects of exchange rate shocks on inflation depending on their size, sign and timing to the inflation cycle. The authors also employed a Cholesky decomposition identification scheme to identify exchange rate shocks in the non-linear model. Findings: The results show that there is a non-linearity effect of the exchange rate shock on inflation. In particular, the effects of 1 or 2 standard deviations of positive (appreciation) or negative (depreciation) exchange rate shock on inflation are small in the long run but a bit larger in the high inflation regime than the low inflation regime. Originality/value: This paper contributes to the literature on the non-linear effects of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation for Sub-Saharan African economies in general and the South African economy in particular by incorporating the size and timing of the exchange rate shocks to the inflation cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper augments a model developed for the government spending for a closed economy by introducing foreign loans, foreign reserves and exchange rates, which are of vital importance for budgeting in an open economy. It suggests that government expenditures are a function of taxes, domestic debt, foreign debt in domestic currency, foreign reserve in domestic currency, high-powered money, and real interest paid on domestic and foreign debt. All factors are found to have a positive impact on government expenditures in mathematical modelling, except for foreign reserves interest payments on domestic and foreign debt, which have a negative impact on the expenditures. The model is estimated by employing yearly data from 1976 to 2020 for Pakistan's economy and incorporating the impact of change in the exchange rate regime on government expenditures. The model, estimated with the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, suggests that current government expenditures depend on the current and previous period taxes, current domestic loans, current and earlier periods of foreign debt, current high-powered money, and foreign reserves. In addition, the empirical findings indicate that around 55 per cent of government expenditures have been financed through tax revenues, 21 per cent through high-powered money and 17 per cent through government bonds. The paper applies a dummy variable to measure the impact of the change in the exchange rate regime in 1999; it suggests that the change has positively impacted government expenditures. This paper concludes that the government has been preferring printing money and foreign loans, after taxes, for financing expenditures in Pakistan. At the policy level, the paper recommends that the government needs to rationalise the financing of its expenditures by focusing more on taxes. Further, it needs to avoid tapping foreign reserves held by the private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The year 2020 was the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the turning point for the industries poorly affected by the unexpected conditions. This paper focused on the impact of a range of factors on China's exports of metal manufacture in 2020, in particular the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on it. Using cross-sectional data, the paper collected relevant data for 151 countries in 2020. We applied trade gravity model by considering important parameters impacting on China's exports of metal manufacture such as GDP, distance, population, the total number of cases of COVID-19, employment rate, economic degrees of freedom, the political environment and the free trade agreement between China and other countries. Then, by collecting the data set for 2021, this paper compares the models for 2020 and 2021 with the aim of making a comparison of the impact of the pandemic on China's exports of metal manufactures. We also do some analysis about the trend of the effect of COVID-19 in the future. The paper continues with calculation of China's export potential for metal manufacture for its 151 partner countries including 54 of them are at the Trade Potential Untapped level, 38 at the Trade Potential Growing level and 59 at the Trade Potential Mature level based on gravity model. This paper also offers different detailed trade policies for the distinct levels of trade potential in the light of the impact of the COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finally, the last paper by Fanjie Fu, Alan Collins, and Shujie Yao investigates how supervision intensity is related to stock price crash risk (SPCR) in China, finding an inverted U-pattern. Three of the eight papers are closely related to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched by China in 2013. In Paper 4, Kailei Wei, Suhan Li, and Chunxia Jiang explore the spatial heterogeneity and time-varying nature of FDI determinants by specially examining the BRI impact on FDI inflows. [Extracted from the article]

Presents several papers of selected institutes published in the November 2003 issue of the journal "Asian-Pacific Economic Literature." "Toward Creating a Regional Monetary Arrangement in East Asia," by C. Fred Bergsten and Yung Chul Park from Asian Development Bank Institute; "The Water Issue Between Singapore and Malaysia: No Solution in Sight?," by Lee Poh Onn from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies; "Trade Liberalization and Pollution: Evidence From the Philippines," by Rafaelita M. Aldaba and Caesar B. Cororaton from the International Development Research Centre.

This Note explores the debate about public access to information—specifically, documents—related to the ongoing negotiation of international trade agreements. As regional and multilateral trade agreements such as NAFTA and the WTO proliferate, various interests that are not party to the negotiations but are concerned about the orientation and breadth of these agreements have looked for ways to open up and influence the negotiating process. Essential to this campaign are the efforts of public advocacy groups in the United States to gain access to documents exchanged among government negotiators while trade negotiations are ongoing. In 2002, several such groups filed suit in federal court under the Freedom of Information Act, requesting that the United States Trade Representative be directed to hand over documents related to ongoing trade negotiations with Chile. This Note takes account of the legal issues discussed in that case and of the policy issues more generally at stake in this debate, and offers a legal solution that departs from current case law and executive branch practice in an effort to better balance competing concerns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of trade liberalization is also a process of deepening and improving China's institutions, which will certainly have a profound impact on social trust, but literature on how trade liberalization affects trust is scarce. This paper examines the impact of import trade liberalization on Chinese residents' social trust using a fixed-order regression model based on the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data from 2010 to 2017. The study finds that import trade liberalization significantly contributes to the enhancement of social trust among Chinese residents. The mechanism analysis confirms that import trade liberalization enhances the social trust of Chinese residents mainly through the channel of improving institutional quality. Heterogeneity analysis shows that different sensitivities to institutions of heterogeneous individuals lead to a more significant contribution of import trade liberalization to residents' social trust levels in highly institutionalized regions, party and government organs, the military, non-agricultural households, and higher educated groups of residents. The findings of this paper imply that building an all-around opening pattern in the new era can contribute to the enhancement of mutual trust in Chinese society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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There is a strong relationship between regional integration and economic performance. This paper investigates the impact of regional integration on macroeconomic indicators in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) – a trade block created by the former Soviet republics in 2014. This study compares two types of regional collaboration strategies: first, unilateral trade liberalization with the one-sided opening of market access that does not imply any mutual concessions, and second, reciprocal regional liberalization evaluated as the degree of regional economic integration between the countries. We apply a random effect panel data analysis with the dataset over 25 years since 1995 covering five countries (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia). We find that, under the current stage, the EAEU positively affects trade flows, negatively affects the level of employment, and has no impact on other economic performance indicators. We also conclude that despite the declared level of economic integration – customs union – Eurasian block functions mainly as a free trade area facilitating mutual trade, which is different from the broader objectives that regional integration aims to achieve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) use networks to overcome knowledge deficiencies in pursuing innovation. However, balancing the cost and risk of growing networks, especially internationally, with potential gains in knowledge remains a critical challenge. Searching for innovation knowledge in international and domestic networks can be complementary when learning is compressed or as competing when the SMEs capacity to use the new knowledge is exceeded. This paper aims to investigate whether knowledge searches in domestic and international networks are complementary or conflicting in pursuit of innovation. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on firm-level data set comprising 426 SMEs located in New Zealand, an advanced small and open economy. Using multi-level modelling, this study tests competing hypotheses, asking whether domestic and international network searches are complements or substitutes when seeking ambidexterity. Findings: The research finds that, in contrast to earlier research, which shows increasing network breadth drives innovation activity, SMEs benefit less from knowledge search across combined domestic and international networks for exploration innovation and ambidexterity. In contrast, exploitation shows no effect, suggesting that combined networks could support exploitation. Originality/value: This paper highlights how SMEs mitigate the influence resource constraints have on the partnerships they form and how this translates to ambidexterity. Specifically, recognising that an opportunistic approach to network development may impose future constraints on SME ambidexterity. From a management perspective, the paper recognises that balancing knowledge search across domestic and international networks can facilitate ambidexterity; however, to prevent spreading resources too thinly, this likely requires exit from early domestic innovation network partnerships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates pollution reduction by rationalization hypothesis in China. We study the heterogeneous firm's export effect on water pollution in China. We use China's firm-level data from 2000 to 2012 to estimate the firm's heterogeneity of export effect, composition effect, and technique effect on water pollution. We find that intra-industry agglomeration produces a competition effect, and more productive firms can export with less polluted water. More productive firms can export with less polluted water by reallocating more productive labor from dirty firms. We find an inverted U-shaped relationship between a firm's productivity and water pollution. Intra-industry agglomeration drives up labor productivity; higher productive firms export while producing more polluted water initially. When a firm's productivity is increasing, export activity produces less polluted water. More export induces less water pollution for high productivity firms. We conclude that the mechanism of pollution reduction by rationalization hypothesis does exist for water pollution in China. Trade liberalization causes some firms to become cleaner, even though we observe relatively clean exporting firms and relatively dirty domestic producers at different productivity stages. Productivity-induced rationalization causes water pollution to fall with high firm productivity. Water pollution in different regions has disparities. Eastern area in China is more likely to produce more polluted water than the rest of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper underlines the significance of free trade agreements in attracting foreign direct investment and their impact on the operational capacities of local firms in host countries. It argues that free trade agreements do not only eliminate barriers to trade, but they also increase the size of the regional market and improve the business environment, making it more attractive to foreign direct investment, along with all the attributes and spillover effects associated with it. While determining the type of spillover effects of foreign direct investment associated with Oman's trade agreements, this paper uses the Kruskal–Wallis H-test and 438 samples from companies surveyed between 1 August and 31 October 2023 to assess the impact of spillovers on the performance of the surveyed companies. The results reveal that technology transfer, knowledge transfer, labour productivity, product efficiency, capital investments, and job creation have positive effects on the firms' operational capacities, with technology transfer having the highest impact (27%), followed by labour productivity and job creation (18%). The spillover effects are almost the same for company size and percentage of ownership. They also identified manufacturing and tourism as priority sectors and the availability of a skilled workforce as a major challenge. These findings make original contribution to the field as this is probably the first study to produce a firm-level analysis of spillover effects of foreign direct investment and trade agreements in the context of Oman and the wider Gulf region. The paper concludes with practical implications for policy makers when negotiating trade agreements and designing investment policies to optimize spillover effects on the performance of their domestic firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the increase in the number of global billionaires from mainland China between 2004 and 2018. One of the key findings is that under conditions of an open economy, grassroots billionaire entrepreneurs (e.g., Jack Ma) could mitigate political economy as well as financial frictions via capital injections from foreign venture capitalists. By building a unique database, I report that (i) the politically unconnected billionaire entrepreneurs financed by foreign venture capitalists are more likely to go public their companies outside mainland China (mainly in Hong Kong and the USA), use offshore financing vehicles, and enter the innovation sector and (ii) the politically connected global billionaire entrepreneurs, however, are closely associated with a record of state-owned enterprise (SOE) restructuring. Plain English Summary: The increase in the number of billionaire entrepreneurs (e.g., Jack Ma) from mainland China between 2004 and 2018 is a new phenomenon, which necessitates a reassessment of the crony capitalism arguments, the types of entrepreneurs, and the sources of innovation. This paper has important implications for future research on entrepreneurship in a global economy and the design of relevant policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a free trade agreement among the states of Africa. The primary goal of this agreement is to make a single market for goods and services by removing trade barriers across Africa. AfCFTA has a dispute settlement body, trades in goods and services, intellectual property, investment policy, competition policy and digital trade in its different phases. These things are promising but have some legal barriers that can cause the objectives to fail. This paper aims to discover those legal barriers that can make a difference in this continental trade. Also, this paper will try to show the relationship between African reality and the texts outlined in the agreement. In addition to these aspects, the paper aims to give solutions from the legal perspective of these problems and suggestions to improve regarding upcoming texts related to this agreement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose Despite being a flexible tool that can address several macroeconomic issues, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have been rarely used to analyse the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy until the post-financial crisis, leaving a gap in the analysis of how government consumption affects the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. This motivates this paper to analyse how government consumption affects the dynamics of a small open economy, once the former is included in a non-separable form to the utility function. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this issue has not been addressed by the literature, and the authors aim to do so in this paper. Design/methodology/approach A standard New Keynesian model for a small open economy is used to allow for the presence of non-separable government consumption in the utility function. The model is supported by panel regressions. Findings The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The degree of openness dampens the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model. Originality/value The effect of government consumption on the transmission mechanism of MP has not been addressed in the literature. This paper contributes to the literature by addressing this issue. Highlights: • The inclusion of Government consumption dampens the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. • The degree of openness alleviates the crowding out effect of fiscal policy to monetary policy, as the exchange rate channel empowers it. • Empirical estimates for 35 OECD countries support the theoretical findings of the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effects of working from home on fertility rate and human capital accumulation using an overlapping-generations model, which is mainly based on Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) and Cardak (2004). Although Groezen, Leers and Mejidam (2003) consider childcare cost and child allowances in a model of a small open economy, they ignore educational expenditures and do not analyze human capital accumulation. Although Cardak (2004) considers human capital accumulation and assumes it is determined by governmental or parental expenditures on education and by parent's human capital endowments, he ignores childcare cost and child allowances, and assumes population size is constant in each period. This study considers human capital accumulation in a model introduced childcare time with endogenous fertility by following Murata (2022). We then consider the effects of working from home on fertility rate and human capital accumulation. This paper is motivated by enforced working from home during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. We find that if the government increases childcare subsidies, working from home promotes human capital accumulation and economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The importance of trade openness and human capital for the economic growth of countries is the subject of many studies today. The role of innovations and the innovativeness of economies in modern economic development is extremely important. With greater accumulation of human capital, knowledge, skills and innovation are accumulated. All these variables are crucial for achieving higher economic growth. Special attention in the studies of relevant authors is directed towards researching this relationship on the example of small open economies, as well as developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between trade openness and human capital as explanatory variables and GDP as a dependent variable in a sample of eight Balkan countries. The goal of the research is to quantify the relationship between two independent variables and GDP as a dependent variable. The period in which we observe this relationship covers the period from 2000 to 2019. Achieving the research objective is done on the basis of a panel model with fixed and random effects. The results of the panel research testify to the existence of a positive relationship between trade openness and human capital as independent variables and GDP as a dependent variable. Calculated coefficients with independent variables were obtained with a high level of statistical significance. The conclusion of the research implies that there is a positive impact of trade openness and human capital on GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: higher trade openness is associated with a lower unemployment rate. This paper also examines whether or not the effects of trade liberalisation depend on countries' income levels. Further, the dynamic causation between trade openness and unemployment is also examined. Design/methodology/approach: In order to obtain insight into the openness–unemployment nexus, following empirical methods were utilised - static panel models, dynamic panel models and a novel panel Granger causality approach proposed by Juodis et al. (2021). Findings: Results suggest that openness negatively affects unemployment; the extent to which trade liberalisation affects unemployment depends on the income level of each country. The Juodis, Karavias, and Sarafidis (JKS) test confirmed that the past values of trade openness, inflation, foreign direct investment and gross domestic product per capita contain information that helps to predict unemployment in a more robust manner. To simply put, opening upto trade may eventually become a requirement for creating more job opportunities, but this alone may not be enough. The extent to which nations benefit from trade liberalisation is largely dependent on the overall economic conditions and their capability to move up the income scale. Originality/value: A major difference between this study and those performed previously is that this study does not only examine the impact of trade openness on unemployment, but also investigates whether the unemployment effect of liberalisation is affected by countries' income levels – an issue that has received little attention in the past. Additionally, the unique panel non-causality approach put forth by Juodis et al. (2021) is used in the first instance to look into the causal link between trade openness and unemployment. This method has advantages in that the method enables capturing Granger-causality in homogeneous or heterogeneous panels amongst multiple variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a set of papers analysing the likely economic impact of Brexit across key aspects of the UK economy as the country comes to the end of its first full year outside the European Union. The Brexit vote in 2016 was not just a vote on the UK's relations with the institutions of the European Union but was also a referendum on the fractured state of the UK as a nation. The resulting conflation of Brexit with domestic economic policy debates is reflected in this issue. A first cluster of papers focuses on the consequences of choosing to abandon the 'four freedoms' enshrined in the Treaty of Europe, the free movement of goods, services, capital, and labour across the EU, and a second is concerned with the indirect effects of Brexit in those areas of domestic policy that have been opened up by the Brexit decision. The economic consequences of Brexit are only just emerging, but these papers provide an informed perspective on the state of debate, and the likely implications of Brexit across a range of policy areas, both international and domestic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of the study described in this paper is to evaluate the assertion that the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is expected to increase economic welfare among its member countries. The paper leverages the cross-sectional variation between least developed countries (LDCs) and non-LDCs to analyse output, trade, and welfare effects of the AfCFTA. The analysis employs a sectoral aggregation geared to detect the most salient features of the manufacturing industries in LDCs. LDCs in Africa face significant structural challenges to long-term development and are susceptible to economic shocks. Even though the World Bank and African Union have taken significant steps in addressing the main LDC challenges, it has not stopped LDC governments from being highly concerned about the rising adjustment costs that the AFCFTA agreement entails. Using data from the Version 10, Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Data Base as well as macroeconomic projections on real GDP, population, physical capital, and labour force for LDC and non-LDC regional aggregations, the paper compares the African economy in 2035 with and without the AfCFTA in place. To this end, the computable general equilibrium (CGE model was used to simulate three scenarios that represent the AfCFTA: a percentage tariff elimination, a 50% reduction of (non-tariff measures) NTMs, and a combination of 97% tariff elimination and a 50% reduction of NTMs across all member states. The empirical evidence provided shows that the economic effects of the AfCFTA rely largely on trade defence instruments such as eliminating import tariffs, reducing non-tariff measures (NTM), and improving trade facilitation as the source of enhancement to welfare. The findings show that the agreement is expected to create an overall welfare gain of $17.7 billion by 2035. LDCs are expected to shift from a previously predominantly agricultural industry towards a more productive textile industry. Meanwhile, non-LDCs strongly shift towards the manufacturing and processed food industry while moving away from textiles. In LDCs, labour and capital significantly increase in textiles while they decrease in the manufacturing industry. In contrast, labour and capital in the non-LDCs increase in the manufacturing industry while reducing in the textile industry, thus allowing factors to reallocate to more productive sectors. As trade barriers are reduced, the price of imports falls, increasing the number of imports due to domestic demand. The results show that the elimination of tariffs has a slightly higher impact on LDCs, while the reduction of NTMs has a more significant impact on non-LDCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Despite the enormous expectant opportunities from the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), including creating a single continental market for goods and services, trade and investment, one key deterrent has remained fiercely unresolved due to failed trajectories with similar regional markets initiatives in the continent, and that is environmental uncertainty. To address this concern, this paper aims to develop a sustainability enabled-model to facilitate the adoption of AfCFTA under uncertain environment conditions to guide prospective investors and facilitators. Design/methodology/approach: This study is anchored on quantitative research approach and positivists' paradigm. Survey strategy has been used to collect data from 520 medium-sized firms across Ghana. Data analyses have been conducted with the using smart partial least squares version 3.3.3 analytical tool and structural equation modeling modality. Findings: The findings have showed that institutionalization, supply chain integration, supply chain resilience and innovativeness have positive effects on AfCFTA adoption under uncertainty. Moreover, AfCFTA adoption provides mechanisms through which to attain sustainable supply chain performance. Meanwhile, environmental uncertainty negatively influences AfCFTA adoption, and weakens the relationships between the adoption and sustainability performance. Originality/value: This paper has developed an integrated investment decision model to facilitate AfCFTA adoption under environmental uncertainty. It provides new insights into the African free market to guide policymakers, practitioners, academics and promoters of AfCFTA on sustainability initiatives that influence its adoption under uncertainty. Moreover, the new model, which serves as a strategic tool for decision-making, could be used to stimulate the ratification and the trade facilitation measures to build strong confidence in current and prospective investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the effects of human capital on bilateral domestic value-added trade in global value chains (GVCs) for 43 countries and 56 sectors. In contrast to previous studies, this paper estimated an approximate gravity model of value-added trade to capture the role of human capital in determining the cross-border production linkages via value-added trade. The results show that the domestic value-added trade flows depend critically on human capital development in both exporting and importing countries. The results indicate a positive effect of skilled intensity on bilateral domestic value-added trade in GVCs. We also observe a larger positive effect of skills on the GVC value-added trade for the developing economies. The paper highlights the importance of trade liberalization and forward-looking human capital development policies for the competitiveness of the developing countries in the value-added trade in GVC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]