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One of the greatest challenges facing humanity in the current millennium is the need to mitigate climate change, and one of the most viable options to overcome this challenge is to invest in renewable energy. The study dynamically examines the links between renewable energy consumption, non-renewable energy consumption, climate change, and economic growth in five emerging Asian countries during the period 1975-2020. Variables selected in the model have long-term cointegration, as explored by the Pedroni cointegration test and the Westerlund cointegration test. The long-term estimated parameters of the augmented mean group (AMG) method show that renewable energy consumption significantly reduces climate change, while non-renewable energy consumption significantly promotes climate change. The results also show that GDP, investment in transport infrastructure, and urbanization can significantly contribute to climate change in selected emerging Asian countries. Moreover, the results validate the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis for emerging Asian economies. Country-specific analysis results using AMG estimates shows that renewable energy consumption reduces climate change in selected emerging Asian countries. Non-renewable energy consumption and investment in transport infrastructure have had significant progressive impacts on climate change in all countries. Urbanization contributes significantly to climate change, with the exception of Japan, which does not have any significant impact on climate change. GDP contributes significantly to climate change in all countries; however, GDP2 has significant adverse effects on climate change in India, China, Japan, and Korea, validating the inverted U-shaped EKC assumption for all countries except Bangladesh. Moreover, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test confirmed a pairwise causal relationship between non-renewable energy consumption and GDP, supporting the feedback hypothesis. The results suggest that the best option for climate change mitigation in selected emerging Asian countries is to transition from non-renewable to renewable energy sources., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Vegetation is highly sensitive to climate changes in arid regions. The relationship between vegetation and climate changes can be effectively characterized by vegetation phenology. However, few studies have examined the vegetation phenology and productivity changes in arid Central Asia (ACA). The vegetation phenological information of ACA was extracted using MODIS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, and the dynamics of vegetation phenological changes under spatiotemporal variations were quantitatively assessed. Moreover, the impacts of climate change on vegetation phenology and net primary productivity were analyzed by combining meteorological data with that of MODIS NPP (Net Primary Productivity) during the same period. The results demonstrated that the start of the season (SOS) of vegetation in the study was concentrated from mid-February to mid-April, while the end of the season (EOS) was concentrated from early October to mid-December. The length of growing season (LOS) ranged from 6 to 10 months. The SOS of vegetation was gradually postponed at a rate of 0.16 d·year -1 . The EOS advanced at a rate of 0.69 d·year -1 . The LOS was gradually shortened at a rate of 0.89 d·year -1 . For each per 1000 m increase in elevation, the SOS of vegetation was postponed by 12.40 d; the EOS advanced by 0.40 d, and the LOS was shortened by 11.70 d. For the impacts of climate changes on vegetation phenology and NPP, the SOS of vegetation phenology negatively correlated with temperature but positively correlated with precipitation and NPP. The EOS and LOS positively correlated with temperature but negatively with precipitation and NPP. Results indicated that the SOS was not moved ahead but was delayed, while the EOS advanced rather than being postponed under climate change. These results can offer new insights on the phenological response to climate change in arid regions and on non-systematic changes in phenology under global warming., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Topic 3 of the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) Phase III examines how online coupled air quality models perform in simulating wintertime haze events in the North China Plain region and evaluates the importance of aerosol radiative feedbacks. This paper discusses the estimates of aerosol radiative forcing, aerosol feedbacks, and possible causes for the differences among the participating models. Over the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, the ensemble mean of estimated aerosol direct radiative forcing (ADRF) at the top of atmosphere, inside the atmosphere, and at the surface are -1.1 , 7.7, and -8.8 W m -2 during January 2010, respectively. Subdivisions of direct and indirect aerosol radiative forcing confirm the dominant role of direct forcing. During severe haze days (17–19 January 2010), the averaged reduction in near-surface temperature for the BTH region can reach 0.3–1.6 ∘ C. The responses of wind speeds at 10 m (WS10) inferred from different models show consistent declines in eastern China. For the BTH region, aerosol–radiation feedback-induced daytime changes in PM 2.5 concentrations during severe haze days range from 6.0 to 12.9 µ g m -3 (<6 %). Sensitivity simulations indicate the important effect of aerosol mixing states on the estimates of ADRF and aerosol feedbacks. Besides, black carbon (BC) exhibits a large contribution to atmospheric heating and feedbacks although it accounts for a small share of mass concentration of PM 2.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses Chinese sub-national governments' implementation strategies to meet national energy efficiency targets in the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010). Previous research has focused on the ways governance practices and decision-making structures shape implementation outcomes, yet very little attention has been given to what strategies local leaders actually employ to bridge national priorities with local interests. To illustrate how local leaders work politically, this paper highlights specific implementation methods officials use to strengthen formal incentives and create effective informal incentives to comply with energy efficiency mandates. The analysis is drawn from 53 interviews conducted in June and July of 2010 in Shanxi, a major coal-producing and energy-intensive province. Findings suggest that local government leaders conform to national directives by "bundling" the energy efficiency policy with policies of more pressing local importance or by "bundling" their energy efficiency objectives with the interests of groups with significant political influence. Ultimately, sub-national government officials frame policies in ways that give them legitimacy at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The mid-Pliocene warm period was the most recent geological period in Earth's history that featured long-term warming. Both geological evidence and model results indicate that East Asian summer winds (EASWs) strengthened in monsoonal China, and that East Asian winter winds (EAWWs) weakened in northern monsoonal China during this period, as compared to the pre-industrial period. However, the corresponding mechanisms are still unclear. In this paper, the results of a set of numerical simulations are reported to analyze the effects of changed boundary conditions on the mid-Pliocene East Asian monsoon climate, based on PRISM3 (Pliocene Research Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping) palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. The model results showed that the combined changes of sea surface temperatures, atmospheric CO concentration, and ice sheet extent were necessary to generate an overall warm climate on a large scale, and that these factors exerted the greatest effects on the strengthening of EASWs in monsoonal China. The orographic change produced significant local warming and had the greatest effect on the weakening of EAWWs in northern monsoonal China in the mid-Pliocene. Thus, these two factors both had important but different effects on the monsoon change. In comparison, the effects of vegetational change on the strengthened EASWs and weakened EAWWs were relatively weak. The changed monsoon winds can be explained by a reorganization of the meridional temperature gradient and zonal thermal contrast. Moreover, the effect of orbital parameters cannot be ignored. Results showed that changes in orbital parameters could have markedly affected the EASWs and EAWWs, and caused significant short-term oscillations in the mid-Pliocene monsoon climate in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under future net-zero emission policies, reductions in emissions of ozone (O 3) precursors are expected to alter the temporal and spatial distributions of tropospheric O 3. In this study, we quantify changes in the tropospheric O 3 budget and in the spatiotemporal distribution of surface O 3 in east Asia and the contributions of regional emissions, intercontinental transport and climate change between the present day and 2060 under a net-zero scenario using the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM) with online tagging of O 3 and its precursors. The results reveal that the global tropospheric O 3 burden is likely to decrease by more than 20 %, from 316 Tg in the present day to 247 Tg in 2060, under a net-zero scenario. The burden of stratospheric O 3 in the troposphere is expected to increase from 69 to 77 Tg. The mean lifetime of tropospheric O 3 is expected to increase by 2 d (∼10 %). Changes in climate under a net-zero pathway are relatively small and only lead to small increases in tropospheric O 3. Over eastern China, surface O 3 increases in winter due to the weakened titration of O 3 by NO associated with reduced anthropogenic NO emissions and due to enhanced stratospheric input. In summer, surface O 3 decreases by more than 30 ppbv, and peak concentrations shift from July to May. Local contributions from anthropogenic emissions to surface O 3 over east Asia are highest in summer but drop substantially, from 30 % to 14 %, under a net-zero scenario. The contribution of biogenic NO sources is enhanced and forms the dominant contributor to future surface O 3 , especially in summer (∼40 %). This enhanced contribution is mainly due to the increased O 3 production efficiency under lower anthropogenic precursor emissions. Over eastern China, local anthropogenic contributions decrease from 50 % to 30 %. The decreases in surface O 3 are strongly beneficial and are more than sufficient to counteract the increases in surface O 3 observed in China over recent years. This study thus highlights the important co-benefits of net-zero policies that target climate change in addressing surface O 3 pollution over east Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid growing alarm over the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, increasing attention is being given to ‘geo-engineering’ technologies that could counteract some of the impacts of global warming by either reducing absorption of solar energy (solar radiation management (SRM)) or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Geo-engineering has the potential to dramatically alter the dynamics of global climate change negotiations because it might cool the climate without constraining fossil fuel use. Some scholars have expressed concern that certain states may be tempted to act unilaterally. This paper assesses the approach that China is likely to adopt towards governance of SRM and the implications this holds for broader international climate negotiations. We survey Chinese public discourse, examine the policy factors that will influence China's position, and assess the likelihood of certain future scenarios. While Chinese climate scientists are keenly aware of the potential benefits of geo-engineering as well as its risks, we find that no significant constituency is currently promoting unilateral implementation of SRM. China will probably play a broadly cooperative role in negotiations toward a multilaterally governed geo-engineering programme but will seek to promote a distinctive developing world perspective that reflects concerns over sovereignty, Western imperialism and maintenance of a strict interpretation of the norm of common but differentiated responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

A comprehensive and integrative view of East Asian monsoon evolution during the Holocene is still under debate, and additional high-resolution proxy records from climatically sensitive locations are requisite to solve this complex issue. In this paper, we present three well-dated mud/peat cores from a paleo-pingo depression in the Sanjiang Plain, a climatically sensitive region to monsoon variation, to reveal the paleoenvironmental history of the wetland and discuss the regional impacts from monsoon evolution. A paleolake developed in the study area before 5.5 ka BP, and a peatland initiated thereafter consequent upon the gradual shrinking of the paleolake. This transition lasted until 4.5 ka BP, when the paleolake changed entirely to a wetland. Considering the prevalent monsoon climate in the Sanjiang Plain, we suggest that the lake-to-wetland transition from 5.5 to 4.5 ka BP indicates a rapid decline of the East Asian summer monsoon in addition to autogenic basin infilling processes. Such a remarkable monsoon weakening event has been documented across northern China, and we associate this with ocean–atmosphere interactions throughout low-latitude regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau experienced severe aeolian desertification during the mid‐ and late 20th century, but mitigation of this aeolian desertification has occurred since 2000 despite a warming climate. The causes of aeolian desertiffication and its mitigation have been debated by scientists because of their potentially huge significance for PR China and Asia, as well as for global climate systems. Based on a review of previous studies and our own investigations, it appears that aeolian desertification from the 1970s to 2000 was caused primarily by unsustainable and irrational human activities, and its mitigation since the 2000 was mainly attributable to a warmer and wetter climate, combined with decreasing wind intensity, for the Plateau as a whole. However, the dominant factors for mitigation varied spatially. The Government's ecological protection projects have been implemented in some places with dense population, and played a key role in the mitigation in these places. The Plateau's climate will likely become warmer and wetter in the 21st century based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model simulations. If the simulation results are credible, mitigation of aeolian desertification will continue in the 21st century due to a combination of continuing grazing exclusion and rotational grazing, even without artificial revegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to the introduction of wheat and barley from Central Asia during the Neolithic period, northern Chinese agricultural groups subsisted heavily on millet. Despite being the focus of many decades of intensive interest and research, the exact route(s), date(s), and mechanisms of the spread and adoption of wheat and barley into the existing well-established millet-based diet in northern China are still debated. As the majority of the important introduced crops are C3 plants, while the indigenous millet is C4, archaeologists can effectively identify the consumption of any introduced crops using stable carbon isotope analysis. Here we examine published stable isotope and dental caries data of human skeletal remains from 77 archaeological sites across northern and northwestern China. These sites date between 9000 to 1750 BP, encompassing the period from the beginning of agriculture to wheat’s emergence as a staple crop in northern China. The aim of this study is to evaluate the implications of the spread and adoption of these crops in ancient China. Detailed analysis of human bone collagen δ13C values reveals an almost concurrent shift from a C4-based to a mixed C3/ C4– based subsistence economy across all regions at around 4500–4000 BP. This coincided with a global climatic event, Holocene Event 3 at 4200 BP, suggesting that the sudden change in subsistence economy across northern and northwestern China was likely related to climate change. Moreover, the substantially increased prevalence of dental caries from pre–to post–4000 BP indicates an increase in the consumption of cariogenic cereals during the later period. The results from this study have significant implications for understanding how the adoption of a staple crop can be indicative of large-scale environmental and socio-political changes in a region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nature and dynamics of climate change in central Asia since the late Pleistocene are controversial. Moreover, most of the published studies focus mainly on the evolution of moisture conditions, and there have been few attempts to address changes in seasonality. In this study, records of δ13Corg, TOC, TN, C/N and grain size were obtained from lacustrine sediments at Yili Basin, Xinjiang, NW China. Our aim was to reconstruct the trend in seasonality of precipitation from the last glaciation to the Holocene. The organic matter content of the sediments is derived predominantly from terrestrial plants. The δ13Corg values vary from -19.4% to -24.8%, indicating that the vegetation was dominated by C3 plants. Winter-spring precipitation is identified as the factor determining the relative proportions of C3 and C4 plants in the region. A negative trend in δ13Corg corresponding to an increase in the relative abundance of C3 plants indicate a trend of increasing winter-spring precipitation from the last glaciation to the Holocene. The increased incidence of wintertime storms in the interior of Asia is suggested to result in the increase of winterspring precipitation in the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings are known as the Third Pole (TP). This region is noted for its high rates of glacier melt and the associated hydrological shifts that affect water supplies in Asia. Atmospheric pollutants contribute to climatic and cryospheric changes through their effects on solar radiation and the albedos of snow and ice surfaces; moreover, the behavior and fates within the cryosphere and environmental impacts of environmental pollutants are topics of increasing concern. In this review, we introduce a coordinated monitoring and research framework and network to link atmospheric pollution and cryospheric changes (APCC) within the TP region. We then provide an up-to-date summary of progress and achievements related to the APCC research framework, including aspects of atmospheric pollution's composition and concentration, spatial and temporal variations, trans-boundary transport pathways and mechanisms, and effects on the warming of atmosphere and changing in Indian monsoon, as well as melting of glacier and snow cover. We highlight that exogenous air pollutants can enter into the TP's environments and cause great impacts on regional climatic and environmental changes. At last, we propose future research priorities and map out an extended program at the global scale. The ongoing monitoring activities and research facilitate comprehensive studies of atmosphere–cryosphere interactions, represent one of China's key research expeditions to the TP and the polar regions and contribute to the global perspective of earth system science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Haze days induced by aerosol pollution in North and East China have posed a persistent and growing problem over the past few decades. These events are particularly threatening to densely populated cities such as Beijing. While the sources of this pollution are predominantly anthropogenic, natural climate variations may also play a role in allowing for atmospheric conditions conducive to formation of severe haze episodes over populated areas. Here, an investigation is conducted into the effects of changes in global dynamics and emissions on air quality in China's polluted regions using 35 simulations developed from the Community Earth Systems Model Large Ensemble (CESM LENS) run over the period 1920–2100. It is shown that internal variability significantly modulates aerosol optical depth (AOD) over China; it takes roughly a decade for the forced response to balance the effects from internal variability even in China's most polluted regions. Random forest regressions are used to accurately model (R2 > 0.9) wintertime AOD using just climate oscillations, the month of the year, and emissions. How different phases of each oscillation affect aerosol loading is projected using these regressions. AOD responses are identified for each oscillation, with particularly strong responses from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). As ENSO can be projected a few months in advance and improvements in linear inverse modeling (LIM) may yield a similar predictability for the PDO, results of this study offer opportunities to improve the predictability of China's severe wintertime haze events and to inform policy options that could mitigate subsequent health impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been few high‐resolution investigations covering the last glacial and Holocene from Sichuan, Yunnan, or south Asia area in the south‐west monsoon domain region. High‐resolution analyses of lake sediments retrieved from Qionghai Lake, Sichuan Province, were conducted using a combination of variables including total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) concentration, low frequency magnetic susceptibility (χLF), particle size, carbonate content, and δ13C value of organic matter (δ13Corg), to provide a new perspective on the detailed paleoclimate history of south‐west China spanning the past 30 cal ka BP. Our findings suggest that organic matter in the Qionghai Lake was mainly derived from microorganisms, aquatic macrophytes, and terrestrial C3 plants. From 29.1 to 23.2 cal ka BP, low carbonate contents, high median grain size (Md values), and χLF values indicated a warm and wet climate. During the period 23.2 to 15.4 cal ka BP, low χLF, Md values, and high carbonate contents suggested a decrease in temperature and humidity. The cold and dry Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich 1 event (H1) were captured between 21.6 and 19.4 cal ka BP and 17.6 and 15.8 cal ka BP, respectively. During the interval 15.4 to 9.7 cal ka BP, low level of χLF values and Md values, together with relatively high carbonates, demonstrated that a dry climate prevailed in this period. Since 9.7 cal ka BP, the climate was warm and humid in the early to mid‐Holocene and shifted towards cold and dry condition in the late Holocene. A cold and dry period at 8.5 to 8.1 cal ka BP and warm and wet interval at 6.6 to 4.6 cal ka BP were identified, corresponding to the 8.2‐ka cold event and Holocene climatic optimum (HCO), respectively. These climate changes may reflect variations of the intensity of the south‐west summer monsoon, primarily in response to the Northern Hemisphere solar insolation on a millennial scale induced by orbital forcing. The position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) may add a complementary effect on the evolution of the monsoon strength in the Holocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Robust surface warming with distinct interdecadal variations has been observed in the offshore area of China and adjacent seas (hereafter, offshore China) during winter and summer of the period 1958-2014. Acceleration of this warming during 1980-99 at rates greater than the global mean warming rate was accompanied by a weakening of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) and a strengthening of the west Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). It was determined that the sea surface temperature (SST) variation in offshore China correlates very well with changes in the EAM wind on interdecadal time scales. It was also established that the enhanced oceanic lateral heat transfer, mainly attributed to the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF1), weakening EAM wind mode, has a central role in robust interdecadal winter surface warming in offshore China. However, except for the effect of oceanic lateral heat transfer, the increased surface heat flux through radiative heating related to the third EOF (EOF3) strengthening EAM anticyclone wind mode (WPSH) in summer appears to have a greater contribution to interdecadal summer surface warming in offshore China. These results help clarify the relationship between interdecadal SST variations, EAM, oceanic currents, and sea surface flux in offshore China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term changes in surface wind speed (SWS) are influenced by both large-scale circulation and relative resistance. The effects of large-scale circulation are embodied by the pressure-gradient force (PGF), which is mostly a natural factor, whereas the resistance is due to the drag between the air and the surface as well as in the different boundary layers, which is mainly caused by the anthropogenic land use and cover change (LUCC). We performed experiments using a simple dynamical method in which a balance among the PGF, Coriolis force, and drag is reached to separate the effects of the PGF and LUCC on the SWS, and then, to quantitatively estimate the influence of the LUCC on the SWS over the East China Plain (ECP) during the period 1980-2011. The results show a distinct decrease in the SWS in the station observation data with a rate of −0.13 m s (10 year), but there is no statistically significant long-term trend in the reanalysis data. At the same time, the drag coefficient induced by the LUCC shows an increasing trend, which is consistent with the 30 % increase in the rate of urbanization during the study period. In addition, the PGF fluctuates with distinct seasonal and interannual changes, and it has an insignificant long-term increasing trend during the period 1980-2011. At the same time, the spatial distribution of the linear trend coefficient of the normalized PGF is inconsistent with that of the SWS, but the linear trend coefficient of the normalized drag coefficient shows a similar spatial distribution as the SWS. Therefore, the increase in the drag coefficient induced by the LUCC should account for the long-term decrease in the SWS. The difference between the model wind speed, in which the drag coefficient is constrained to its value in the year 1980, and the observed wind speed at each station (SWSD) can reflect the influence of the LUCC on the SWS. Furthermore, the long-term changes in East Asian monsoons may not completely account for the observed wind speed decrease near the surface in the ECP region, but it is an important factor in the SWS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China (1958-2001) and the daily upper air data of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis dataset (1958-2001) are used to define an East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) index based on dynamic and thermal factors. The index is used to represent the front (or leading edge) of EASM to describe and characterize the advance and retreat of EASM objectively. During 1958-2001, the EASM movement underwent three interdecadal abrupt shifts in 1965, 1980 and 1994, respectively. During 1958-1964, the front primarily concentrated in South China and North China, while it stayed at the mid- and lower-Yangtze River for a short period. During 1965-1979, the front was located in South China and the lower reach of Yellow River for a long time. During 1980-1993, the time in which the front of EASM stayed at the mid- and lower-Yangtze River was much longer, but it settled in North China for just a short time. During 1994-2001, the front generally concentrated in the south of the mid- and lower-Yangtze River. The three interdecadal shifts of EASM directly resulted in rainfall anomalies, as well as frequent disasters of flood and drought in East China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review compares and contrasts the environmental changes that have influenced, or will influence, fishes and fisheries in the Yangtze and Mekong Rivers. These two rivers have been chosen because they differ markedly in the type and intensity of prevailing threats. The Mekong is relatively pristine, whereas the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze is the world's largest dam representing the apotheosis of environmental alteration of Asian rivers thus far. Moreover, it is situated at the foot of a planned cascade of at least 12 new dams on the upper Yangtze. Anthropogenic effects of dams and pollution of Yangtze fishes will be exacerbated by plans to divert water northwards along three transfer routes, in part to supplement the flow of the Yellow River. Adaptation to climate change will undoubtedly stimulate more dam construction and flow regulation, potentially causing perfect storm conditions for fishes in the Yangtze. China has already built dams along the upper course of the Mekong, and there are plans for as many as 11 mainstream dams in People's Democratic Republic (Laos) and Cambodia in the lower Mekong Basin. If built, they could have profound consequences for biodiversity, fisheries and human livelihoods, and such concerns have stalled dam construction. Potential effects of dams proposed for other rivers (such as Nujiang-Salween) are also cause for concern. Conservation or restoration measures to sustain some semblance of the rich fish biodiversity of Asian rivers can be identified, but their implementation may prove problematic in a context of increasing Anthropocene alteration of these ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the possibility that the glaciers of the Tibetan plateau could be melted by global warming. This would lead to short-term floods and long-term drought for large sections of Asia, including China and India. Scientific studies are cited which indicate that glaciers around the world began to diminish in the 1950's, staged a modest comeback in the 1970's, and rapidly began shrinking again in the 1980's. Large and geopolitically important river systems such as the Yellow River and the Mekong are dependent on water from the glaciers of the Tibetan plateau.

Global climate change has created a major threat to biodiversity. However, little is known about the habitat and distribution characteristics of Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl., an evergreen tree growing in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as the factors influencing its distribution. The present study employed Maxent and a GARP to establish a potential distribution model for the target species based on 182 known occurrence sites and 17 environmental variables. The results indicate that Maxent performed better than GARP. The mean diurnal temperature range, annual precipitation, mean air temperature of driest quarter and sunshine duration in growing season were important environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. camphora and contributed 40.9%, 23.0%, 10.5%, and 7.2% to the variation in the model contribution, respectively. Based on the models, the subtropical and temperate regions of Eastern China, where the species has been recorded, had a high suitability for this species. Under each climate change scenario, the potential geographical distribution shifted farther north and toward a higher elevation. The predicted spatial and temporal distribution patterns of this species can provide guidance for the development strategies for forest management and species protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]