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The increasing global warming trend has resulted in the mass loss of most glaciers. The Urumqi Vally, located in the dry and cold zone of China, and its widely dispersed glaciers are significant to the regional ecological environment, oasis economic development, and industrial and agricultural production. This is representative of glaciers in Middle Asia and represents one of the world's longest observed time series of glaciers, beginning in 1959. The Urumqi Headwater Glacier No. 1 (UHG-1) has a dominant presence in the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS). This paper supplies a comprehensive analysis of past studies and future modeling of glacier changes in the Urumqi Valley. It has received insufficient attention in the past, and the mass balance of UHG-1 was used to verify that the geodetic results and the OGGM model simulation results are convincing. The main conclusions are: The area of 48.68 ± 4.59 km2 delineated by 150 glaciers in 1958 decreased to 21.61 ± 0.27 km2 delineated by 108 glaciers in 2022, with a reduction of 0.47 ± 0.04 km2·a−1 (0.96% a−1 in 1958–2022). The glacier mass balance by geodesy is −0.69 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 in 2000–2022, which is just deviating from the measured result (−0.66 m w.e.a−1), but the geodetic result in this paper can be enough to reflect the glacier changes (−0.65 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1) of the URB in 2000–2022. The future loss rate of area and volume will undergo a rapid and then decelerating process, with the fastest and slowest inflection points occurring around 2035 and 2070, respectively. High temperatures and large precipitation in summer accelerate glacier loss, and the corresponding lag period of glacier change to climate is about 2–3 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emissions are critical to climate change, and land-use change is an essential source of growth in carbon emissions. Research on land-use carbon emissions has become one of the hotspots in academic research. To explore the research hotspots and development trends of land-use carbon emissions in the last 20 years, CiteSpace software was used to conduct a quantitative analysis of relevant literature. This paper was based on the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Web of Science (WoS) database literature on land-use carbon emissions from 2001 to 2020. The scientific research cooperation network CiteSpace software, with keyword co-occurrence, clustering, and burst word detection, was used to systematically analyze the main research strengths, hotspots and frontiers and clarify the research progress. The research results are as follows: (1) the amount of literature and the depth of research on land-use carbon emissions have increased yearly. However, there is little cooperation between research institutions and scholars, and there is still a lack of large-scale and stable research teams. (2) At the research hotspot level, the English literature focuses on building models and theoretical frameworks to study the internal mechanisms and driving factors of carbon emissions and climate change. The Chinese literature focuses on achieving regional carbon emissions reductions and carbon cycle goals and optimizing a low-carbon economy, transportation and land-use structure. (3) Research frontiers and trends show that the English literature first explored carbon sequestration, organic carbon, and carbon accounting. In China, the research frontiers are gradually becoming focused on influencing factors, decoupling analysis, and the built environment. The study will strengthen the intensity and depth of global carbon emission research and provide a reference for improving global climate change, protecting ecology and balancing economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in global temperature, the global change situation dominated by climate warming is becoming more and more serious. Climate change will cause differences in the suitable areas of species in different periods. Ginkgo biloba L., a rare and endangered wild plant protected at the national level in China, is the oldest relict plant in the world. Because of severe climate change, only China's wild Ginkgo biloba has been preserved, yet China's wild Ginkgo biloba population is facing extinction risk. Ginkgo biloba has rich ornamental value, application value, economic value, medicinal value and ecological value. Not only can it produce economic and ecological benefits, but it can also produce huge social benefits. Based on the data of Ginkgo biloba sample distribution, bioclimatic variables and soil variables, this paper uses the MaxEnt model to simulate Ginkgo biloba suitable area under current and future different climate scenarios, and analyzes the changes in the potential suitable area of Ginkgo biloba in the future through ArcGIS 10.6. The results are as follows: (1) the results simulated by the MaxEnt model are AUC > 0.9, showing that the simulation results have a high accuracy; (2) the min temperature of the coldest month, precipitation of the wettest month, elevation, and temperature seasonality are the main environmental variables affecting the change in the Ginkgo biloba suitable area; (3) under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of Ginkgo biloba is predicted to expand in the future, covering most of the south and some northeast regions, and moderate temperature and precipitation changes under climate change are conducive for the growth of Ginkgo biloba; and (4) in the future, the distribution center of the suitable area will move to the northeast. According to the conclusions in this paper, it is expected to provide theoretical reference for cultivation and management, sustainable utilization and solution of ecological environment problems of Ginkgo biloba. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

CO2 is one of the primary greenhouse gases impacting global climate change, making it crucial to understand the spatiotemporal variations of CO2. Currently, commonly used satellites serve as the primary means of CO2 observation, but they often suffer from striping issues and fail to achieve complete coverage. This paper proposes a method for constructing a comprehensive high-spatiotemporal-resolution XCO2 dataset based on multiple auxiliary data sources and satellite observations, utilizing multiple simple deep neural network (DNN) models. Global validation results against ground-based TCCON data demonstrate the excellent accuracy of the constructed XCO2 dataset (R is 0.94, RMSE is 0.98 ppm). Using this method, we analyze the spatiotemporal variations of CO2 in China and its surroundings (region: 0°–60° N, 70°–140° E) from 2019 to 2020. The gapless and fine-scale CO2 generation method enhances people's understanding of CO2 spatiotemporal variations, supporting carbon-related research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 20 July 2021, an extreme rainstorm battered Zhengzhou in China's Henan Province, killing 302 people, including 14 individuals who drowned in a subway tunnel and 6 who drowned in a road tunnel. As the global climate warms, extreme weather events similar to the Zhengzhou flood will become more frequent, with increasingly catastrophic consequences for society. Taking a case study-based approach by focusing on the record-breaking Zhengzhou flood, this paper examines the governance capacity of inland cities in North China for managing extreme precipitation and flooding events from the perspective of the flood risk management process. Based on in-depth case analysis, our paper hypothesizes that inland cities in North China still have low risk perceptions of extreme weather events, which was manifested in insufficient pre-disaster preparation and prevention, poor risk communication, and slow emergency response. Accordingly, it is recommended that inland cities update their risk perceptions of extreme rainfall and flooding events, which are no longer low-probability, high-impact "black swans", but turning into high-probability, high-impact "gray rhinos." In particular, cities must make sufficient preparation for extreme weather events by revising contingency plans and strengthening their implementation, improving risk communication of meteorological warnings, and synchronizing emergency response with meteorological warnings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientifically evaluating the influence of ecological restoration projects on the water conservation function (WCF) of regional ecosystems is the foundation for formulating regional ecological restoration policies and optimizing and adjusting ecological restoration projects. In this paper, we considered fully the runoff generation and confluence process in the Qilian Mountains with the actual situation of the basin and re-rated the parameter Z to improve the simulation accuracy of InVEST model. On this basis, the impact of ecological restoration project on the WCF in the upper reaches of Shiyang River Basin (SRB) in the eastern part of Qilian Mountains was quantified. The results showed that, on the whole, the water conservation depth (WCD) of forest land was the largest (138.5 mm) and that of cultivated land was the smallest (24.78 mm), while the water conservation coefficient of forest land was also the largest (93.36%) and that of unused land was the smallest (16.67%). From 1986 to 2018, the WCD showed an increasing trend in the upper reaches of SRB, among them, the WCD in the western tributaries increased faster than that in the eastern tributaries from 1986 to 2000. The significantly increased areas were mainly distributed in the middle reaches of the western tributaries and the river source areas of the eastern tributaries, while the significantly decreased areas were mainly distributed in the river source areas of the western tributaries and the cultivated land expansion area in the middle reaches of the eastern tributaries. From 2000 to 2018, the WCD of the eastern tributaries increased more than that of the western tributaries. The significantly increased areas were mainly distributed in the four eastern tributaries, and the significantly decreased areas were scattered in the middle and lower reaches of each tributary. From 1986 to 2000, the overall influence of land use change on the increase in WCD was negative, while the influence of climate and land use change on the increase in water conservation were both positive from 2000 to 2018. The influence of land use change on WCD was different in different tributaries. Among them, that of the western tributaries (except the Dongda River) was positive in two different periods, while that of the eastern tributaries (except the Xiying River) was changed from negative to positive. The implementation of ecological restoration project was one of the main reasons for the improvement of WCF in Qilian Mountains from 2000 to 2018, with a contribution of 9.04%. In the future, the protection and restoration of decreased areas of WCF should be strengthened, and the Z value determined in this paper is expected to be applied in the arid inland river basins of northwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Affected by global warming, the frequency of crop pests and diseases have increased, causing huge losses to agricultural production. To better grasp the development and trends of research on the effects of climate change on crop pests and diseases, the literature on the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases published from 1990 to 2021 in the Web of Science (WOS) core collection database was used. This study explores the literature characteristics and hotspot evolution through the bibliometric visualization analysis software COOC, VOSviewer, and CiteSpace, with a view to identifying the changing characteristics and trends of research changes in this field. The results showed that the number of literature on the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases increased rapidly. The main fields involved include environmental sciences, ecology, and agronomy. Papers in these fields mainly published in journals, such as PLos One, Forest Ecology and Management, and Frontiers in Plant Science. The country with the highest number of publications was the United States, followed by China and Australia. The most prolific authors in the top 20 are research scholars from China. The first author of the top 20 highly cited papers was from the United States. It was found that that current research on the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases mainly focuses on agricultural production and food safety. Modelling and crop growth has maintained steady development. At present, research in this field mainly focuses on pest management strategies under the impact of climate change, the response of single species, and the complex ecological mechanisms behind the response. This study provides unique insights into the research field of the impact of climate change on crop pests and diseases and provides a reference direction for future research development in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tarim Basin is a large inland arid basin in the arid region of northwest China and has been experiencing significant "warming and wetting" since 1987. As a result, the purpose of this paper is to determine whether the climate transition phenomenon occurred in the Tarim Basin as well as the role of atmospheric circulation in this process. We use meteorological data and atmospheric circulation indexes to study the seasonal trends of climate change in this region from 1987 to 2020 to understand how they are affected by atmospheric circulation. The findings show that, from 1987 to 2020, the Tarim Basin experienced significant warming and wetting; with the exception of the winter scale, all other seasonal scales exhibited a clear warming and wetting trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, most of the areas showed a significant warming trend, and the warming amplitude around the basin is greater than that in the central area of the basin. However, there are significant regional differences in precipitation change rates. Meanwhile, wavelet analysis shows that there is a significant oscillation period of 17–20 years between climate change and the atmospheric circulation index during 1987–2020. The correlation analysis shows that the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the main influencing factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin at different seasonal scales, while the teleconnection of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is low and the PDO dominates the summer and autumn temperature changes in the Tarim Basin. The research results of this paper show that, despite the warming and wetting trends since 1987 in the Tarim Basin, the climate type did not change. From 1987 to 2020, the main teleconnection factors of climate change in the Tarim Basin were PDO and ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems are undergoing continuous degradation due to the dual perturbation of global climate change and human activities, posing unprecedented threats and challenges to the ecosystem services they provide. To gain a deeper understanding of the spatio-temporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV), it is essential to accurately capture the characteristics of its spatial and temporal changes and its influencing factors. However, traditional spatio-temporal statistical methods are limited to analyzing the heterogeneity of ESV in a single temporal or spatial dimension, which fails to meet the comprehensive analysis needs for spatio-temporal heterogeneity over an extended continuum. Therefore, this paper constructs a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model to analyze the ESV heterogeneity in both temporal and spatial dimensions in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020 to accurately identify the regions with unstable fluctuations in ESV and analyze the influencing factors behind them. It aims to comprehensively and systematically reveal the intrinsic laws of spatio-temporal evolution of ESV, and provide a scientific basis for relevant decision-making. The study found a continuous fluctuating downward trend of ESV in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020, with significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Notably, the distribution of hot and cold spots is regularly concentrated, especially in the transition zone from low hills to plains, which forms an "unstable zone" of spatial and temporal fluctuations of ESV. Natural factors such as NDVI and NPP exhibit a significant positive correlation with ESV, while social factors like population density and GDP show a strong negative correlation. Compared to traditional statistical methods, the Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model, with its outstanding flexibility and accuracy, provides a new perspective and way of thinking for analyzing classical spatio-temporal problems. Firstly, the model examines time and space as a whole and fully accounts for the influence of spatio-temporal interactions on ESV. Secondly, the Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical model meets the needs of long-term continuous ESV outcome detection, which provides us with solid support for a deeper understanding of the evolution of ESV. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought intensity and frequency have increased in recent years, which poses significant threats to forest ecosystems, especially in the context of global climate change. This paper is aimed at summarizing the current state of research and global development trends regarding drought-induced tree mortality mechanisms in tree physiology. Developing a robust literature foundation will facilitate in-depth research and foster the exchange of knowledge related to this subject. A literature review was conducted using tools such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace, and the Bibliometrix R-package to review the literature from the Web of Science's core database from 1985 to 2023. We intend to determine the current state and evolution of global research on drought-induced tree mortality mechanisms. The results reveal that research on drought-induced tree mortality mechanisms gained momentum predominantly in the last two decades, with a marked surge post-2012. The United States is the epicenter of research, leading the global scientific community with its preeminence in publication volume, citation rates, and the scope of collaborative networks, with China in close pursuit. Tree Physiology stands out as the leading journal in this domain, boasting 129 articles. McDowell NG emerges as the most prolific author, with an H-index of 41, underscoring his influence in the field. There is a clear upward trend in collaborations spanning authors, journals, research institutions, and countries. The analysis of frequently cited keywords and topic evolution suggests that drought and tree mortality will likely remain key research areas for the foreseeable future. The future of research on drought-induced tree mortality mechanisms in physiology is promising, as it emphasizes multidisciplinary approaches and global collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The response of dryland vegetation to climate change is particularly sensitive in the context of global climate change. This paper analyzes the characteristics of spatial and temporal dynamics of vegetation cover in the Tarim River Basin, China, and its driving factors in order to investigate the response of vegetation growth to water storage changes in the basin. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), the GRACE gravity satellite, and meteorological data from 2002 to 2022 are used to decipher the characteristics of the response of water storage changes to vegetation changes, which is of great significance to the realization of regional ecological development and sustainable development. The results of the study show the following: (1) The vegetation in the Tarim River Basin has an overall increasing trend, which is mainly distributed in the Aksu Basin and the Weigangkuche River Basin and is spatially distributed in the form of a ring. (2) Vegetation distribution greatly improved during the 20-year study period, dominated by high-cover vegetation, with a change rate of 200.36%. Additionally, vegetation changes are centered on the watersheds and expand to the surrounding area, with a clear increase in vegetation in the Kumukuri Basin. Areas with a vegetation Hurst index of <0.5 account for 63.27% of the study area, and the areas with a continuous decrease were mainly located in the outer contour area of the Tarim River and Kumu Kuri Basins. (3) There are obvious spatial differences in the correlation between EVI and temperature and precipitation elements. The proportion of areas with positive correlation with temperature within the study area is 64.67%. EVI tends to be consistent with the direction of migration of the center of gravity of the population and GDP, and the areas with positive correlation between vegetation and terrestrial water reserves are mainly distributed in the northern slopes of the Kunlun Mountains, with an area proportion of about 50.513%. The Kumukuli Basin also shows significantly positive correlation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Encouraging the use of conservation tillage technology is a highly effective approach to safeguarding soil health, improving the environment, and promoting sustainable agricultural development. With the mounting concerns surrounding climate change, developing conservation tillage methods that facilitate sustainable agricultural growth has become an imperative both in China and around the world. While it is widely recognized that adapting to climate change is crucial in agriculture, there is limited research on evaluating the risks, discovering resilience, measuring farmers' perceptions on climate change, and exploring how tillage technology can be adjusted in the context of small-scale farming in China to foster sustainable development. Using research data from smallholder farmers in the Shaanxi and Shanxi provinces of China, this paper aims to explore the impact of climate change perceptions on farmers' adoption of conservation tillage technologies based on an ordered Probit model. We found that farmers tend to refrain from embracing conservation tillage technology due to the presence of unclear and conflicting perceptions regarding climate change. Focus on short-term profitability and inadequate preparation hinder them from prioritizing adaptation. We recognized several measures that could help farmers adapt and thrive within the agricultural sector. Furthermore, we have validated the need for self-system moderation in promoting farmers' adoption of conservation tillage technology. By utilizing such tools and resources, farmers can comprehend the gravity of climate change's impact on agricultural productivity and, more importantly, channel their efforts towards fortifying resilience to extreme weather conditions and long-term climate risks, thus fortifying agricultural sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pearl River is one of China's large rivers, the second-largest river and the fourth-longest river in China. Its unique geography, landform, and climate conditions create unique fluvial geomorphological processes. Affected by human activities and climate change, the fluvial geomorphological processes in the Pearl River Basin have undergone significant changes in recent decades, seriously affecting the river's sustainable development. This paper critically reviews changes in fluvial geomorphological processes and analyzes influencing factors in the Pearl River Basin with a focus on possibilities for policy overhaul and strategic adjustments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and human activities exert significant influence on the water–sediment relationship in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, comprehending the underlying mechanisms is crucial for the effective management of water and soil resources, as well as integrated watershed management. This research focuses on the Kuye River watershed (KYH_W) in the middle reaches of the Yellow River in China, along with its sub-watersheds Wangdaohengtazi (WDHT_SW) and Xinmiaosi (XM_SW). This paper utilizes the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test and the double cumulative curve method to examine the interannual trends of runoff, sediment transport, precipitation, temperature, and NDVI factors. Furthermore, the method of the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) is utilized to quantitatively evaluate the impacts and contribution rates of climate change and human activities on water–sediment changes within each watershed. The results are as follows: (1) From 1969 to 2019, the entire watershed experienced a significant decrease in both runoff and sediment transport, with 1997 marking the year of abrupt change. However, following 2012, the KYH_W and WDHT_SW exhibited a noticeable rebound in runoff. (2) Human activities predominantly contribute to the reduction in water and sediment in the watershed. (3) After the abrupt change, between 1998 and 2011, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the annual runoff reduction in the entire KYH_W reached 33% and 64%, respectively. Moreover, these rates for sediment transport reduction reached 26% and 74%, respectively. Subsequently, after 2012, the contribution rates of both factors to the increase in watershed runoff reached 29% and 71%, respectively. Factors other than the NDVI, within human activities, played a dominant role in augmenting the watershed's runoff. (4) Prior to 2011, changes in vegetation cover resulting from the Grain for Green Program, as measured by the NDVI, emerged as the primary factor responsible for reduced runoff in the watershed. Conversely, factors other than the NDVI assumed dominance in reducing sediment transport. The SCRCQ method offers a quantitative approach to assessing water–sediment changes. Based on this method, the study further underscores the substantial impacts of climate change and human activities on variations in runoff and sediment transport within the KYH_W in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Notably, the water–sediment changes in the KYH_W exhibit distinct stage-wise and spatial discrepancies, which warrant increased attention in future research endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a raw material for clean energy supply for the new generation, the soybean is conducive to the realization of global energy transition and sustainable development in the context of "carbon neutrality". However, global warming has been affecting soybean yields in recent years. How to clarify the correlation between meteorological factors and soybean yields, so as to ensure the security of soybean growth and development and the stability of renewable energy development, is a key concern of the government and academia. Based on the data of temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration and active accumulated temperature during the soybean growing season in Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 1951 to 2019, and soybean yield data of the city from 1985 to 2019, this paper adopted statistical methods such as the Trend Analysis Method, the Rescaled Range Analysis Method and so on to analyze the trends of yield changes, characteristics of abrupt changes and periodic patterns of climate factors and soybean yields in Hulunbuir. A Pearson Correlation Analysis and a Grey Relation Analysis were used to explore the correlation between climatic factors and soybean yields, followed by a comprehensive impact model of the combined effect of temperature and precipitation on soybean yields established by the Method of Integral Regression. The results showed that temperature and active accumulated temperature are the dominant factors affecting soybean yields in Hulunbuir, while the decrease in precipitation is unfavorable to the improvement of soybean yields. Meanwhile, temperature and precipitation have different effects on the growth and development of the soybean at different stages. The conclusion of this paper is of great practical significance for Hulunbuir to promote the sustainable development of clean energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the annual average climate data and economic and social data from 262 prefecture-level cities in China from 2001 to 2019, this paper explores the impact of climate change on urban–rural income inequality and its mechanisms using fixed-effects (FEs) and mediated-effects (MEs) models. This study finds that (1) climate change has an inverted U-shaped relationship with the urban–rural income disparity; (2) climate change can affect the urban–rural income disparity by influencing urban and rural income levels, the regional degree of urbanization, and the labor force employment structure; (3) the impact of climate change on the urban–rural income gap is heterogeneous in East, Center, and West China; and (4) extreme heat can widen the urban–rural income gap, and extreme drought can narrow the urban–rural income gap. Climate change has a significant impact on the urban–rural income gap, and there is a need to continue to promote urbanization and the optimization of the employment structure of the workforce, reduce the vulnerability of rural residents to climate change, and narrow the urban–rural income gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rainfall distribution in southwest China is uneven, and the rainstorm threshold cannot use in a unified standard. This paper synthesizes a calculation method for the extremely heavy precipitation threshold and the provision of the rainstorm threshold in meteorological operation. It calculates the daily precipitation rainstorm threshold at 400 national ground stations in southwest China. The rainstorm events from 1961 to 2021 were statistically analyzed using the rainstorm threshold and analyzing the spatial-temporal variation characteristics. The results show that the number of single-station rainstorm events and the average precipitation of single-station rainstorm events in southwest China decreased from east to west. The number and frequency of single-station rainstorm events in Guizhou, Sichuan, Tibet, and Chongqing are increasing, while the number of single-station rainstorm events in Yunnan is decreasing. There is no apparent spatial distribution pattern for the continuous rainstorm events in the southwest region. From 1961 to 2021, the number and frequency of rainstorm events at a single station in southwest China followed an upward trend. The number of rainstorm events at a single station increased by 16.7 times · (10a)−1, and the frequency of rainstorms increased by 9.9% · (10a)−1. The continuous rainstorm events show an increasing trend, with an increase of 0.1 times · (10a)−1. Using the rainstorm threshold in southwest China, the early warning threshold for rainstorm disasters can be adjusted. The temporal and spatial characteristics of rainstorm events since 1961 can analyze the changes occurring in rainstorm events under global warming and provide data to support the response of southwest China to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sand prevention and control are the main tasks of desertification control. The MU Us Sandy Land (MUSL), one of China's four main deserts, frequently experiences droughts and has a very fragile biological environment. Climate change is the main factor leading to drought, and it may result in more serious drought situations in the future. The Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) was established using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index data. In this paper, we investigate spatial and temporal change characteristics, future change trends, and the time-lag effect of TVDI on climate factors at different scales in MUSL from 2001 to 2020 using Sen + Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Hurstexponent, partial correlation analysis, and lag analysis methods. The results show that (1) the overall drought shows a spatial characteristic of gradually alleviating from west to east (TVDI = 0.6). A significant drying trend dominated 38.5% of the pixels in the fall (Z = 1.99), and a highly significant drying trend dominated the rest of the three seasons (Z average = 2.95) and the whole year (Z = 3.47). (2) In the future, dry autumn, winter, and the whole year will be dominated by continuous drying, and spring and summer will mainly change from dry to wet. The main relationships between winter TVDI and temperature (−0.06) and precipitation (−0.07) were negative, while evapotranspiration (0.18) showed a positive correlation. The six land use types in spring, summer, fall, and the whole year were primarily non-significantly positively correlated with temperature and evapotranspiration. (3) At the seasonal scale, the sensitive factors in spring and autumn were opposite, with spring TVDI responding quickly to precipitation (0.3 months) and being less sensitive to temperature (1.8 months) and evapotranspiration (2 months). At the interannual scale, desert land TVDI was most sensitive to precipitation (2.6 months) and least responsive to temperature (3 months). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, forest ecosystems, especially subtropical forests, play a central role in biogeochemical cycles and climate regulation, demonstrating their irreplaceable function. The subtropical region of China, characterized by its unique forest ecosystem, complex terrain, climate heterogeneity, diverse vegetation types, and frequent human activities, underscores the importance of the in-depth study of its net primary productivity (NPP). This paper employs the eddy covariance–light use efficiency (EC-LUE) model to quantitatively estimate the gross primary productivity (GPP) of this region from 2001 to 2018, followed by an estimation of the actual net primary productivity (ANPP) using the carbon use efficiency (CUE). The results showed that over these 18 years, the annual average ANPP was 677.17 gC m−2 a−1, exhibiting an overall increasing trend, particularly in mountainous areas, reserves, and the cultivated lands of the northeastern plains, whereas a significant decrease was observed around the urban agglomerations on the southeast coast. Furthermore, the Thornthwaite memorial model was applied to calculate the potential net primary productivity (PNPP), and diverse scenarios were set to quantitatively evaluate the impact of climate change and human activities on the vegetation productivity in the study area. It was found that in areas where the ANPP increased, both human activities and climate change jointly influenced ANPP dynamics; in areas with a decreased ANPP, the impact of human activities was particularly significant. Additionally, the heterogeneous distribution of ANPP across different altitudinal gradients and the driving effects of various climatic factors were analyzed. Finally, a partial correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between the temperature, precipitation, and ANPP. This study indicated that temperature and precipitation have a substantial impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation in the region, yet the extent of this influence shows considerable variation among different areas. This provides a robust scientific basis for further research and understanding of the carbon dynamics of subtropical forest ecosystems and their role in the global carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China is experiencing a serious ecological water scarcity problem in the context of climate warming and drying. There is an urgent need for practical adaptation measures to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change and provide a scientific basis for urban water supply planning, water resource management, and policy formulation. Urban ecological water can maintain the structure and function of urban ecosystems, both as an environmental element and as a resource. Current research lacks quantitative analysis of the impact of regional meteorological factors on ecological water use at the small and medium scales. Based on the meteorological data and statistical data of water resources in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, this paper analyzed the trend of climate change and established an ecological climatic water model using gray correlation analysis, polynomial simulation, and singular spectrum analysis to predict the ecological water consumption. And, we assessed the climatic sensitivity of ecological water use and estimated the future ecological climatic water use in the BTH region based on four climate scenarios' data. The results showed that the average multi-year temperature was 13.2 °C with a clear upward trend from 1991 to 2020 in the BTH region. The multi-year average precipitation was 517.1 mm, with a clear shift in the period of abundance and desiccation. Ecological climatic water modeling showed that a 1 °C increase in temperature will increase ecological water use by 0.73 × 108 m3~1.09 × 108 m3 in the BTH region; for a 100 mm increase in precipitation, ecological water use will decrease by 0.49 × 108 m3~0.88 × 108 m3; under the four climate scenarios of SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5, the regional ecological climatic water use will be 5.14 × 108 m3, 6.64 × 108 m3, 7.82 × 108 m3, and 9.06 × 108 m3 in 2035, respectively; and in 2050, the ecological climatic water use will be 8.16 × 108 m3, 9.75 × 108 m3, 10.71 × 108 m3, and 12.41 × 108 m3, respectively. The methodology and results of this study will support the quantification of climate change impacts on ecological water use in the BTH region and serve as a theoretical basis for future research on ecological water use adaptation to climate change. This study can provide a basis for the development of the overall planning of urban ecological water supply, and at the same time, it can lay a foundation for the study of measures to adapt to climate change by ecological water use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation is an important indicator reflecting the vegetation dynamics and carbon sequestration capacity in a region. In recent years, China has implemented policies to carry out ecological protection. To understand the changes in the distribution of vegetation NPP in China and the influence of climate factors, the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model was used to estimate the NPP from 2001 to 2020. In this paper, several sets of measurement datasets and products were collected to evaluate the effectiveness of the model and suggestions were provided for the modification of the CASA model based on the evaluation results. In addition to the correlation analysis, this paper presents a statistical method for analyzing the quantitative effects in individual climatic factors on NPP changes in large regions. The comparison found that the model has a better estimation effect on grassland and needleleaf forest. The estimation error for the evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) and deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF) decreases with the warming of the climatic zone, while the evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF) and deciduous needleleaf forest (DNF) do the opposite. The changes in total CASA NPP were consistent with the trends of other products, showing a dynamic increasing trend. In terms of the degree of correlation between the NPP changes and climatic factors, the NPP changes were significantly correlated with temperature in about 10.39% of the vegetation cover area and with precipitation in about 26.92% of the vegetation cover area. It was found that the NPP variation had a negative response to the temperature variation in Inner Mongolia grasslands, while it had a positive but small effect (±10 g C) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau grasslands. Precipitation had a facilitative effect on the grassland NPP variation, while an increase in the annual precipitation of more than 200 mm had an inhibitory effect in arid and semi-arid regions. This study can provide data and methodological reference for the ecological assessment of large-scale regional and climate anomalous environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the climate proxy data, several recent studies have concluded that the Ming dynasty's reign in China coincided with the Little Ice Age, a global crisis. In response, scholars have published several reports in recent years addressing this topic. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the current research findings in English regarding this subject and identifies existing research gaps. The author proposes that the impact of climate on different regions during the late Ming period remains largely underexplored. Furthermore, scholars must exercise caution when assuming that adverse climatic conditions uniformly impacted the Ming empire during the Little Ice Age. This paper also highlights the use of simplistic models by scholars linking cold and dry climates to crop failure, floods, droughts, population decline, and other factors. However, any straightforward models that presume causal determination risk ignoring historical facts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tea (Camellia sinensis L.), as one of the most important cash crops in China, plays an important role in increasing farmers' incomes and guaranteeing a high quality of life. Tea production has been greatly influenced by both climate change and economic development in China. However, without a scientific understanding of the interaction mechanism of climate change and the impetus from rapid economic development on tea production practices in China, it is difficult to take adaptive actions to meet the climate change challenges for the tea industry. In this paper, we firstly assessed the potential impacts of climate change on tea climate suitability by empirical formula calculation using meteorological data; then, the effects from the additional climatic stress due to warming on tea production were detected with the annual statistical tea yield record on a municipal level. The contribution of socioeconomic development to the tea industry was evaluated with the comparison of the movement of China's national economy's and tea industry's gravity center during the period of 1987–2017. Finally, a conceptual adaptation framework was built to demonstrate the interaction mechanisms between climate change, tea production, and the economic development. The results showed that there was a negative impact of climate change on tea production in mainland China, with the percentage of high tea climate suitability (>0.9) areas dropping by 45% to 32%, while opportunities of enlarging the tea cultivating area emerged in the north tea production region where the tea climate suitability increased. We found that the tea planting area expanded northwards from 33° N in 1987 to 35° N in 2017 to take advantage of the favorable climatic resources due to warming, and tea planting decreased at an altitude of 100–400 m while increasing to higher altitude of 400–2000 m to avoid hot temperature damage and seek the optimum environment in high mountainous areas for tea production. In addition, the tea production moved westward along the longitude, decreasing obviously at 117–121° E while increasing significantly at 98–104° E and 107–110° E. Meanwhile, the tea production gravity center showed a westward movement consistent with the national economic gravity center moving trend, which means that tea industry development was driven by multiple socioeconomic factors and climatic forcings. A conceptual framework was built in this paper, aiming to show a robust adaptation mechanism for the tea system to maximize the benefits and minimize the damages from the altered climatic resources under rapid economic development in mainland China. The results in this study would help deepen the understanding of the adaptation process and practices for tea production in mainland China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Streamflow in semiarid areas, especially in North China, was rapidly decreasing, which made it important to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of streamflow. Using the hydro-meteorological data series of 1961–2017 in the upper Yongding River Basin (UYRB) (including the Yang River Basin (YRB) and Sanggan River Basin (SRB)), spatio-temporal variation characteristics of air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration (E0) were analyzed. The results showed that precipitation has no significant trend; the temperature showed a significant increase of 0.1–0.5 °C per decade; E0 showed a significant decrease of approximately −2 mm/10yr (in 18 stations); the estimated rates of streamflow change were −7 and −8 mm/10yr for SRB and YRB. As for spatial distribution, the YRB presented a higher E0 value than the SRB; the mountain areas had more precipitation than the plain areas. The change points of streamflow occurred in 1982 and 2003. Both the Budyko and the DMC methods were used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the mean annual streamflow. In variation stage I (1983~2003), impacts of human activities account for 90.6% and 62.7% of the mean annual streamflow changes in YRB and SRB, respectively. In variation stage II (2004~2017), the percentages were 99.5% and 93.5%, respectively. It is also noted that the first change point in streamflow was indeed at the beginning of China's land reform, when the farmers could manage their reallocated lands and, therefore, there was an increase in agricultural water consumption. The second change point coincided with "Capital Water Resources Planning", including water conservation projects and irrigation district construction programs. In general, human activities were mainly responsible for the significant decline in the annual streamflow of UYRB. This paper will provide valuable results for water resources planning and give guidance on the construction of water conservation function areas and ecological environment support areas in the capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global warming, snow cover changes have an extremely important impact on the hydrological cycle and the redistribution of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions. In this paper, based on the daily cloud-free snow area remote sensing product data in the source region of Yangtze River (SRYR) from 2000 to 2019, the snow phenology variables such as the snow cover day (SCD), snow onset date (SOD), snow end date (SED), and snow duration day (SDD) were extracted separately for each hydrological year, and the vertical distribution of snow cover area (SCA) in the SRYR was analyzed by combining with the digital elevation model (DEM). In addition, we also combined climate factors and land cover types to further explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of snow phenology in response to different influencing factors, in order to reveal the spatiotemporal variation patterns of snow cover in the SRYR. The results showed that: (1) The SCA in the SRYR has a more obvious vertical distribution, with the maximum SCA reaching 61.58% at high elevation, while at low elevation, the SCA is mostly below 20%. The distribution of SCD in the study area showed a significant exponential correlation with DEM (R2 = 0.87). (2) The area of SOD in the SRYR showed an advanced trend of about 63.37%, while the area of SED showed a delayed trend of about 69.59%, and the area which showed significant trends is 4.29% and 4.36%, respectively. Therefore, the trends of both SOD and SED showed insignificant changes. (3) Temperature change is the main factor affecting the change of snow cover in the SRYR. Among them, 90.9% of the regions showed a significant positive correlation between temperature and SCD, while precipitation showed a significant negative correlation with SCD in about 75.3% of the total area of SRYR. Under the stable snow area (SCD > 60), the land cover type is glacial or permanent snow about 1.5 × 103 km2, which covers almost the entire glacial or permanent snow of the SRYR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: This paper analyzed the different relationships between earlywood and latewood as well as total tree-ring growth and the climate factors and reconstructed 106 years of May–June mean temperature (TMJ) in the Tongbai Mountains based on the earlywood width chronology of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata. It also analyzed the linkages to the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This paper found that earlywood width chronology has better response to the climate factors than latewood width and total tree-ring width. This study also found that the main limiting factors that restrained radial growth of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata in the Tongbai Mountains were May–June mean temperature and mean maximum temperature. The reconstructed TMJ series have a better reliability and are significantly negatively correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean and are significantly positively correlated with SST over the subtropical Pacific Ocean. Finally, the periodic fluctuations of TMJ in the Tongbai Mountains might be related to the quasi-biennial interannual oscillation of SST over the Indo-Pacific equatorial region (QBO). The results of this study are significant for further understanding and exploring forest growth and climate change in the climatic transition zone. The Tongbai Mountains are an ecologically sensitive region to climate change, where there lies a climatic transitional zone from a subtropical to a warm–temperate monsoon climate. The northern boundary of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata is here; thus, climate information is well recorded in its tree rings. Based on developed earlywood width (EWW), latewood width (LWW) and total ring width (RW) chronologies (time period: 1887–2014 year) of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata in the Tongbai Mountains in central China, this paper analyzed characteristics of these chronologies and correlations between these chronologies and climate factors. The correlation results showed that earlywood width chronology contains more climate information than latewood width chronology and total ring width chronology, and mean temperature and mean maximum temperature in May–June were the main limiting factors for radial growth of Pinus taiwanensis Hayata. The highest significant value in all correlation analyses is −0.669 (p < 0.05) between earlywood width chronology and May–June mean temperature (TMJ) in the pre-mutation period (1958–2005) based on mutating in 2006. Thus, this paper reconstructed May–June mean temperature using earlywood width chronology from 1901 to 2005 (reliable period of earlywood width chronology is 1901–2014). The reconstructed May–June mean temperature experienced eight warmer periods and eight colder periods and also showed 2–3a cycle change over the past 105 years. The spatial correlation showed that the reconstructed series was representative of the May–June mean temperature variation in central and eastern China and significant positive/negative correlation with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean from the previous October to the current June. This also indicated that May–June mean temperature periodic fluctuations might be related to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean. The results of this study have extended and supplemented the meteorological records of the Tongbai Mountains and have a guiding significance for forest tending and management in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is directly linked to a broad array of changes because of disorganized activities within the economic system and human intervention. Climate change affects the well-being status of both non-living and living things. Relevant policies to mitigate and adapt to climate change conditions concentrate on solutions that intend to use renewable energy instead of fossil fuels or other conventional energy sources. This study aims to process a review focused on how renewables advance environmental quality and create relevant benefits within severe economic activities. This study elaborates on the case of China for two main reasons. First, China has a pivotal role in the economic system worldwide. Second, China is making serious attempts to transition into a low-carbon economy. An integrative review was processed to receive selected publications. The advantage of this process is that it considers empirical and non-empirical studies, policy papers, and conceptual frameworks. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to retrieve the final number of publications. Review results from 39 well-acknowledged Journals provided 180 selected publications categorized into seven study groups: data analyses, model optimization studies, market issues, renewable energy technology publications, nuclear energy publications, ocean energy publications, and policy-related studies. Policy implications concern China's efforts to accelerate the integration of renewables in the energy mix. Hence, the country should increase energy efficiency in consumption and process investment plans based on robust research and development efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The arid endorheic basin of northwest China is characterized by rich land resources, water shortage, and a fragile ecological environment. The establishment of a credible coupling model of groundwater and surface water based on multi-source observation data is an effective means to study the change in basin water cycles and the sustainable utilization of water resources in the past and future. Based on the latest understanding of hydrogeological conditions, hydrology and water resource utilization data in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB), this paper constructs an up-to-date coupling model of surface water and groundwater to study the water balance change of the basin. The water resources data series under historical replay and CMIP5 climate model prediction are constructed to predict future changes in water resources. The study shows that, under the joint influence of natural conditions and human activities, the average annual recharge of groundwater in the study area from 1990 to 2020 is 17.98 × 108 m3/a, the average annual discharge is 18.62 × 108 m3/a, and the difference between recharge and discharge is −0.64 × 108 m3/a. The total groundwater storage is −19.99 × 108 m3, of which the groundwater storage from 1990 to 2001 was −17.52 × 108 m3 and from 2002 to 2020 was −2.47 × 108 m3. Abundant water from 2002 to 2020 in the basin significantly improved the loss of groundwater storage. Under the prediction of historical reappearance and the CMIP5 CNRM-CM5 model RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 pathways, the groundwater level of the Heihe River–Liyuanhe River inclined plain falls first because the HRB has just experienced a wet season and then rises according to future climate change. The groundwater level of the inclined plain east of the Heihe River and Yanchi basin decreases continuously because of the change in water cycle caused by human activities. The erosion accumulation plain is located in the groundwater discharge zone, and the water level is basically stable. Under the conditions of water resource development and utilization, the runoff of Zhengyixia hydrological station cannot meet the requirements of the "97 Water Dividing Plan" of the State Council in most years in the future, and the ecological and production water in the lower reaches of HRB cannot be effectively guaranteed. With the implementation of water-saving irrigation under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff of Zhengyixia can meet the "97 Water Diversion Plan". It is suggested to further improve the level of agricultural water savings in the middle reaches of the HRB and control the reasonable scale of cultivated land in order to reduce water consumption in the middle reaches of the HRB and implement sustainable utilization of water resources in the HRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau is a unique global natural geographical unit with a high altitude and fragile ecology, where land cover change has been affecting its regional ecological security and sustainable development. The plateau covers nine countries with different variations in climate change and human activities, which cause significant spatial variations in its land cover change. This paper uses land cover data to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics and multi-country differences in land cover change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1992 to 2020 by applying spatiotemporal characteristic analysis and mapping methods. The results show that grassland (65.70%), bare land (15.56%), and woodland (10.25%) are the main types of land cover on the plateau, accounting for 91.51% of the total area. The interconversion of bare land and grassland was dominant in 1992–2020, with an area share of 67.83%. The turning point year of grassland change occurred in 2015. The grassland area increased by 6312 km2 in 1992–2015, while it decreased by 14,646 km2 in the plateau in 2015–2020. The areas of woodland, cropland, and water increased by 2.77%, 5.85%, and 7.57%, respectively, and the area of built-up land increased from 299.17 km2 to 1206.29 km2. Overall, a warming and wetting trend of the climate in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has driven the expansion of natural vegetation and water in the central plateau within China, with its natural vegetation area increasing by 0.11%. However, the development of regional warming and drying caused local grassland degradation, where Kyrgyzstan and India within the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau experienced the most prominent vegetation degradation. Human activities are relatively frequent in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau within China and India, causing higher growth rates of built-up land and cropland than in other countries. The establishment of reserves and effective forest management policies have led to significant increases in woodland areas in China and Nepal within the plateau, while weak forest management and limited investment in forest conservation have led to high rates of deforestation in India and Myanmar. Accelerated temperature rises and regional differences in precipitation are the main drivers of large-scale land cover change on the plateau and differences in human activities and land use policies are responsible for the dramatic and diverse localized land cover change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions has a direct impact on the sustainable development of human society and has gained widespread concern globally. Biological carbon sequestration measures, mainly forests, are conducive to improving the ecological carbon sink capacity and play an important role in mitigating global climate change. Therefore, assessing the efficiency of forest carbon storage (FCS) is key. In view of the lack of evaluation methods for forest carbon storage efficiency (FCSE) on a large spatial scale and long time series, a method based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) was proposed in this paper. The FCS was calculated using the forest storage expansion method, and the FCSE was calculated using the DEA-Malmquist index to solve the dynamic balance between regional forestry economic input and carbon storage output efficiency. The FCSE in Chinese provinces was analyzed. The results showed that from 1999 to 2018, China's FCS increased annually, from 7558.34 million tons to 9476.73 million tons, and the spatial distribution pattern of total FCS was always different among regions. The average TFP value of FCSE was 1.089, which proves that the FCSE in China has been on the rise in the past 20 years, but the efficiency growth differed between provinces and was affected by different factors such as technical efficiency and technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions are considered a significant factor that results in climate change. To better support the formulation of effective policies to reduce CO 2 emissions, specific types of important emission patterns need to be considered. Motivated by the flock pattern that exists in the domain of moving object trajectories, this paper extends this concept to a geographical flock pattern and aims to discover such patterns that might exist in CO 2 emission data. To achieve this, a spatiotemporal graph (STG)-based approach is proposed. Three main parts are involved in the proposed approach: generating attribute trajectories from CO 2 emission data, generating STGs from attribute trajectories, and discovering specific types of geographical flock patterns. Generally, eight different types of geographical flock patterns are derived based on two criteria, i.e., the high-low attribute values criterion and the extreme number-duration values criterion. A case study is conducted based on the CO 2 emission data in China on two levels: the province level and the geographical region level. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in discovering geographical flock patterns of CO 2 emissions and provide potential suggestions and insights to assist policy making and the coordinated control of carbon emissions.

Climate change is a global problem facing mankind, and achieving peak CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality is an important task for China to respond to global climate change. The quantitative evaluation of the trends of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions is a premise for achieving this goal. Therefore, from the perspective of urban expansion, this paper analyzes the complex relationship between the mutual interactions and feedback between urban population, land expansion, economic growth, energy structure and carbon emissions. STELLA simulation software is used to establish a system dynamics model of urban-level carbon emissions effects, and Changsha city is used for the case study. The simulated outputs of energy consumption and carbon emissions cover the period from 1949 to 2016. From 1949 to 2016, Changsha's total energy consumption and carbon emissions per capita have continuously grown. The total carbon emissions increased from 0.66 Mt-CO2 to 60.95 Mt-CO2, while the per capita carbon emissions increased from 1.73 t-CO2/10,000 people to 18.3 Mt-CO2/10,000 people. The analysis of the structure of carbon emissions shows that the industrial sector accounted for the largest proportion of emissions, but it had gradually dropped from between 60% and 70% to about 40%. The carbon emissions of residential and commercial services accounted for less than 25%, and the proportion of transportation carbon emissions fluctuated greatly in 2013 and 2016. From the perspective of carbon emissions effects, carbon emissions per unit of GDP had a clear downward trend, from 186.11 t-CO2/CNY104 to 1.33 t-CO2/CNY104, and carbon emissions per unit of land showed two inflection points: one in 1961 and the other in 1996. The general trend showed an increase first, followed by a decrease, then a stabilization. There is a certain linear correlation between the compactness of urban shape and the overall trend of carbon emissions intensity, while the urban shape index has no linear correlation with the growth rate of carbon emissions. The carbon emissions assessment model constructed in this paper can be used by other municipalities, and the assessment results can provide guidance for future energy planning and decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the impact of climate change risks on rice distribution is one of the most important elements of climate risk management. This paper is based on the GEE (Google Earth Engine) platform and multi-source remote sensing data; the authors quantitatively extracted rice production distribution data in China from 1990 to 2019, analysed the evolution pattern of rice distribution and clusters and explored the driving effects between climatic and environmental conditions on the evolution of rice production distribution using the non-parametric quantile regression model. The results show that: The spatial variation of rice distribution is significant, mainly concentrated in the northeast, south and southwest regions of China; the distribution of rice in the northeast is expanding, while the distribution of rice in the south is extending northward, showing a spatial evolution trend of "north rising and south retreating". The positive effect of precipitation on the spatial distribution of rice has a significant threshold. This shows that when precipitation is greater than 800 mm, there is a significant positive effect on the spatial distribution of rice production, and this effect will increase with precipitation increases. Climate change may lead to a continuous northward shift in the extent of rice production, especially extending to the northwest of China. This paper's results will help implement more spatially targeted climate change adaptation measures for rice to cope with the changes in food production distribution caused by climate change.

Rapid economic development has changed land use and population density, which in turn affects the stability and carbon sequestration capacity of regional ecosystems. Net primary productivity (NPP) can reflect the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems and is affected by both climate change and human activities. Therefore, quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities on NPP can help us understand the impact of climate change and human activities on the carbon sequestration capacity of ecosystems. At present, researchers have paid more attention to the impact of climate change and land use change on NPP. However, few studies have analyzed the response of the NPP to gross domestic product (GDP) and population density variations on a pixel scale. Therefore, this paper analyzes the impact of climate change and human activities to NPP on a pixel scale in the Nanjing metropolitan area. During the period 2000-2019, the annual mean NPP was 494.89 g C·m -2 ·year -1 , and the NPP in the south of the Nanjing metropolitan area was higher than that in the north. The NPP was higher in the forest, followed by unused land, grassland, and cropland. In the past 20 years, the annual mean NPP showed a significant upward trend, with a growth rate of 3.78 g C·m -2 ·year -1 . The increase in temperature and precipitation has led to an increasing trend of regional NPP, and the impact of precipitation on NPP was more significant than that of temperature. The transformation of land use from low-NPP type to high-NPP type also led to an increase in NPP. Land use change from high-NPP type to low-NPP type was the main cause of regional NPP decline. Residual analysis was used to analyze the impact of human activities on NPP. Over the last 20 years, the NPP affected by human activities (NPP hum ) showed a high spatial pattern in the south and a low spatial pattern in the north, and the annual mean NPP hum also showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a growth rate of 2.00 g C·m -2 ·year -1 . The NPP hum was influenced by both GDP and population density, and the impact of population density on NPP was greater than that of GDP.

Climate change has become a major environmental issue facing all countries, having a significant effect on all aspects of agricultural production, such as the agricultural mechanization process and fertilizer use. Greenhouse gases produced by agricultural machinery and fertilizers during agricultural production are an important cause of climate change. On the basis of the above facts, researching the connection between agricultural mechanization, climate change, and agricultural carbon emissions is crucial for the development of low-carbon agriculture and for addressing climate change. We used a variety of econometric models and methods to analyze data from China's multiple provinces (cities) covering the years 2000 through 2019, in order to meet the research objectives. Furthermore, we utilized rainfall and sunlight as variables to assess climate change and adopted Granger tests to establish the link between rainfall, sunlight, agricultural mechanization, and carbon emissions in farming. The findings indicate a bidirectional causality relationship between rainfall, sunlight, agricultural mechanization, and carbon emissions in farming. Rainfall and sunlight are Granger causes of agricultural mechanization. Furthermore, agricultural mechanization has favorable effects on carbon emissions of agriculture, and climate change has long-term implications on agricultural mechanization and carbon emissions of agriculture. Finally, this paper investigated the green path suitable for the low-carbon development of Chinese agriculture, arguing that the government should formulate low-carbon agricultural policies by region and actively promote the upgrading of agricultural machinery.

With global warming, China's agricultural products are facing severe production conditions and a complex international trade situation. In order to clarify the relationship between climate change and China's agricultural trade, this paper uses the GTAP model to explore the impact of climate change on China's agricultural trade from the perspectives of agricultural production and supply, energy substitution and trade policy. The results show that: (1) From the overall effect, the production supply risk and energy substitution risk caused by climate change have a positive impact on China's import trade, among which the energy substitution risk has brought about an import trade growth of 38.050%, the production supply risk has brought about an import trade growth of 12.635%, and the trade policy risk has a negative impact, bringing about an import trade decline of 12.589%. (2) Under the impact of production and supply risks caused by climate change, the import volume of different industrial sectors has increased by varying degrees, including livestock products (16.521%) > food crops (14.162%) > cash crops (7.220%). The increase in import trade mainly comes from the United States (10.731%), Canada (10.650%) and Australia (9.455%). (3) Under the impact of energy substitution risk caused by climate change, the increase in import trade was concentrated in food crops (48.144%) and livestock products (42.834%), mainly from the United States (57.098%), the European Union (55.014%) and Canada (53.508%). (4) Under the impact of trade policy risks caused by climate change, the import trade of different industrial sectors showed a downward trend, with cash crops (13.039%) > livestock products (12.588%) > cash crops (12.140%). The countries and regions with significant decline in import trade were ASEAN (-46.131%) and the United States (-28.028%). The trade deficit shifted to surplus, and the terms of trade were improved. Therefore, this paper suggests that we should deal with the impact of climate change on agricultural trade by developing "climate smart" agriculture, actively responding to low-carbon trade measures, and establishing an agricultural trade promotion mechanism to address the risk of climate change.

Damage from climate change is widespread throughout the world. This change has brought about calamities, the most prevalent of which is the emergence of numerous droughts which are increasingly threatening human lives. In this paper, we studied the spatial and temporal variations of drought under the effect of climate change in the Huaibei Plain, which is a very important agricultural zone in China. Drought has attracted increasing attention in research due to its heavy impact on agriculture, the environment, livelihood, and food security. The SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index) has been used in this study to express and identify drought events in the Huaibei Plain due to climate change. A general circulation model (GCM), HadGEM2-AO, which was the most appropriate for the study area's precipitation simulation, and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5, were used to analyze and compare the drought effect for the baseline (1985–2017) and the future climate scenarios (2025–2090). At 3 and 6 months, the SPEI successfully detects agricultural drought in temporal and spatial variation. However, according to the analysis, more severe agricultural drought events are foreseen in the future than in the baseline because of climate change. SPEI performed better than SPI in detecting drought in the baseline and simulated data due to increased evapotranspiration. Between the SPEI-3 and SPEI-6, the Pearson coefficient correlation reveals a positive association. The Mann-Kendall test was used to cover the two studied periods in order to establish the drought trend. Both decreasing and increasing trends, in different timescales, were detected by Sen's Slope in the baseline and future periods with all RCPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has made remarkable achievements in reducing carbon emissions in recent years. However, there is still much reduction room before achieving carbon neutrality. In Beijing, the capital of China, it is a strategic choice to respond to global climate change by promoting green and low-carbon development. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emissions of key industries in Beijing and analyzes the temporal evolution trend of carbon emissions. Carbon dioxide emissions in Beijing before 2030 are predicted based on the grey prediction GM (1,1) and BP neural network model. The effects of factors of carbon dioxide emissions are discussed using the threshold regression model under different economic conditions. The results show that energy consumption intensity, GDP per capita, and the ownership of civil cars have a positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the number of permanent residents and urban green space areas have a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions. These findings of carbon emission prediction and influencing factors contribute to carbon reduction path design. Related policy implications on carbon emission reduction are put forward from the aspects of promoting industrial upgrading, accelerating the construction of advanced economic structures, optimizing transportation structures, and strengthening green building development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, irrigation plays a fundamental role in food production, which is hampered by water security, rising population and climate change. To ensure food security and formulate agricultural and irrigation policies, decision-makers need detailed grid-level information on the location of irrigated areas. Unfortunately, this information is not easily available as national irrigation maps are frequently outdated and often have a coarse spatial resolution. In this paper, we present new irrigation maps for China at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 × 1 km) that cover the period between 2005 and 2015. The maps were created using a synergy approach, which combines and integrates regional and global irrigation maps, cropland maps and subnational statistics. The maps were calibrated to subnational irrigation statistics and validated using an external dataset with geocoded information on the location of irrigated areas. The maps show, at the detailed spatial level, how much irrigation expanded over the period of 2005–2015. The proposed synergy approach is flexible and can easily be applied to create irrigation maps for other regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, recent research on terrestrial ecosystem predictability using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method is summarized. The main findings include the impacts of uncertainties in climate change on uncertainties in simulated terrestrial ecosystems, the identification of key physical parameters that lead to large uncertainties in terrestrial ecosystem modeling and prediction, and the evaluation of the simulation ability and prediction skill of terrestrial ecosystems by reducing key physical parameter errors. The study areas included the Inner Mongolia region, north–south transect of eastern China, and Qinghai–Tibet Plateau region. The periods of the studies were from 1961 to 1970 for the impacts of uncertainties in climate change on uncertainties in simulated terrestrial ecosystems, and from 1951 to 2000 for the identification of the most sensitive combinations of physical parameters. Climatic Research Unit (CRU) data were employed. The numerical results indicate the important role of nonlinear changes in climate variability due to the occurrences of extreme events characterized by CNOP-P in the abrupt grassland ecosystem equilibrium state and formation of carbon sinks in China. Second, the most sensitive combinations of physical parameters to the uncertainties in simulations and predictions of terrestrial ecosystems identified by the CNOP-P method were more sensitive than those obtained by traditional methods (e.g., one-at-a-time (OAT) and stochastic methods). Furthermore, the improvement extent of the simulation ability and prediction skill of terrestrial ecosystems by reducing the errors of the sensitive physical parameter combinations identified by the CNOP-P method was higher than that by the traditional methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating the impact of climate change risks on residential consumption is one of the important elements of climate risk management, but there is too little research on it. This paper investigates the impact of climate change risks on residential consumption and the heterogeneous effects of different climate risk types in China by an ARMAX model and examines the Granger causality between them. Empirical results based on monthly data from January 2016 to January 2019 suggest a significant positive effect of climate change risks on residential consumption, but with a three-month lag period. If the climate risk index increases by 1 unit, residential consumption will increase by 1.29% after three months. Additionally, the impact of climate change risks on residential consumption in China mainly comes from drought, waterlogging by rain, and high temperature, whereas the impact of typhoons and cryogenic freezing is not significant. Finally, we confirmed the existence of Granger-causality running from climate change risks to residential consumption. Our findings establish the linkage between climate change risks and residential consumption and have some practical implications for the government in tackling climate change risks.

Adaptive management has very important practical significance for climate change adaptation and will play a great role in climate change risk mitigation in agricultural, forestry, and pastoral areas of China. Based on the theory of adaptive management, this paper selects Yuanping City from Shanxi Province, Qingyuan County from Liaoning Province, and Kulun Banner from Inner Mongolia as representative cases in agricultural, forestry, and pastoral areas, respectively, to carry out field research, and it uses 1970-2017 meteorological station data to apply vulnerability assessment and climate element change trend analysis, combined with the meteorological hazards data, and explore the adaptive management measures for agricultural, forestry, and pastoral areas in China. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the vulnerability of precipitation in Yuanping is high, the increase in temperature and drought and floods are the most important factors affecting crop yields in agricultural areas, and the key to climate change adaptive management lies in the awareness of farmers of climate change risks and the institutional guarantee of the government; (2) Qingyuan has high temperature vulnerability, and the forest areas have relatively strong adaptive capacity to climate change, but climate change will significantly affect the forest's carbon sequestration function, and the focus of climate change adaptive management in the forestry sector is on engineering and technology field practices; (3) Kulun has the highest vulnerability to climate change, the frequent meteorological disasters seriously impact livestock development, and climate change adaptive management in pastoral areas relies on the participation of pastoralists' local knowledge and also needs the support of the government and society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought poses a serious threat to agricultural production and food security in the context of global climate change. Few studies have explored the response mechanism and lag time of agricultural drought to meteorological drought from the perspective of cultivated land types. This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution patterns and hysteresis relationship of meteorological and agricultural droughts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Here, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index products and surface temperature products were selected to calculate the Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) from 2010 to 2015. Furthermore, we obtained the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the same period. Based on these indices, we analyzed the correlation and the hysteresis relationship between agricultural and meteorological drought in rainfed and irrigated arable land. The results showed that, (1) compared with SPEI, the high spatial resolution PDSI data were deemed more suitable for the subsequent accurate and scientific analysis of the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts. (2) When meteorological drought occurs, irrigated arable land is the first to experience agricultural drought, and then alleviates when the drought is most severe in rainfed arable land, indicating that irrigated arable land is more sensitive to drought events when exposed to the same degree of drought risk. However, rainfed arable land is actually more susceptible to agricultural drought due to the intervention of irrigation measures. (3) According to the cross-wavelet transform analysis, agricultural droughts significantly lag behind meteorological droughts by about 33 days during the development process of drought events. (4) The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient between the PDSI and TVDI shows that the area with negative correlations of rainfed croplands and the area with positive correlations of irrigated croplands account for 77.55% and 68.04% of cropland areas, respectively. This study clarifies and distinguishes the details of the meteorological-to-agricultural drought relationship in rainfed and irrigated arable land, noting that an accurate lag time can provide useful guidance for drought monitoring management and irrigation project planning in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the actual heating patterns of air-to-air heat pumps (AAHP) in rural areas is crucial for energy planning and clean-heating policy optimization. To explore the influence of outdoor climate change on occupants' heating patterns when using AAHPs in rural areas, the heating season was classified into three periods: the early heating period (EH), the mid heating period (MH), and the late heating period (LH). The investigation was conducted in rural areas of northern China, and indoor environmental parameters were measured from December 2021 to March 2022. Occupants completed household questionnaires about their heating habits before heating and phone interviews at the end of heating. This paper proposes clustering analysis to identify the AAHP heating pattern in rural areas. The results revealed four typical heating patterns of AAHP utilization. Occupant heating behaviors were dominated by the outdoor temperature fluctuation. In particular, during the mid heating period, the heating operation time periods and the heating duration were longer than that of other heating periods. Moreover, the heating patterns in living rooms were different from that in bedrooms. Room occupancy had an impact on household heating demands. These results could provide guidance for energy planning and the development of clean heating policy in the rural area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building a new power system with renewable energy as its main component is a key measure proposed by China to address the climate change problem. Strengthening demand-side management (DSM) is an important way to promote the development of a new power system. As an important economic incentive measure in DSM, the current TOU tariff is faced with the problem of a weak incentive effect due to the small tariff difference between the peak and valley periods. Against this background, a novel hybrid three-stage seasonal TOU tariff optimization model is proposed in this paper. First, the K-means++ algorithm is adopted to select the typical days of the four seasons through load curve clustering. Then, the price elasticity of the electricity demand model is constructed to calculate the self-elasticity and cross-elasticity in four seasons. Finally, the seasonal TOU tariff optimization model is constructed to determine the optimal TOU tariff. Through the proposed model, the tariff in the peak period has increased by 8.06–15.39%, and the tariff in the valley period has decreased by 18.48–27.95%. The result shows that the load in the peak period has decreased by 4.03–8.02% and the load in the valley period has increased by 6.41–9.75% through the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clues of climate change on the Alashan Plateau since the last glacial period (40 ka) are important for revealing the mechanism of desertification of middle-latitude deserts in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Studies are still rare for the understanding of the specific relationship of climate changes between the Alashan Plateau and the global. Based on a systematic and comparative analysis of the existing research in China and the international academic community, this paper reviews the environmental evolution history of the Alashan Plateau since the last glacial period from the records of paleo-environment and geomorphological characteristics in different deserts of the plateau (e.g., Badanjilin, Tenggeli, and Wulanbuhe). From about 40 ka to the end of the last glacial maximum, the climate on the plateau was wetter than it is today, and to the end of the Pleistocene, the climate was generally dry and the aeolian activities were enhanced. However, the climate was arid during the whole last glacial period in the Wulanbuhe Desert, evidently different from the overall pattern of the plateau. The Tenggeli Desert was characterized by an arid climate in the early Holocene. The most controversial events for the Alashan Plateau are the drought events in the middle Holocene in the Badanjilin Desert. The role and impact of the westerlies and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) systems on the climate change of the desert and even the whole plateau is a vexed question that brings different views in different periods. There is still a lack of definite evidence representing the events of global environmental change that occurred on the plateau during the discussed period. The distinctive morphology of dune mountains and the distribution of sand dunes are mutually indicative of the direction and energy of wind systems on the plateau. It is suggested that appropriate wind energy is the significant key to the desertification in these middle-latitude deserts on the plateau. From a global-scale review of climate change, the desertification of the modern-scale sandy desert landscapes on the Alashan Plateau is generally related to the global glacial period and the cold and dry climate during the past 40 ka. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate assessment and prediction of forest ecosystem quality is an important basis for evaluating the effectiveness of regional ecological protection and restoration, establishing a positive feedback mechanism for forest quality improvement and restoration policies, and promoting the construction of an ecological civilization in China. Based on the existing studies at home and abroad, this paper mainly analyzes and summarizes the connotation of forest ecosystem quality, assessment index systems, assessment and prediction methods, and outlooks on the existing problems of imperfect forest ecological quality assessment index systems, preliminary assessment and prediction capabilities, and unknown dynamic responses of forest ecological quality to climate change, etc. Efforts should be made to develop a scientific and standardized assessment index system, produce high-quality forest ecological data products, develop localization of assessment model parameters, and explore forest quality–climate change response mechanisms to provide references for in-depth research to realize the transformation of forest ecosystem quality assessments from historical and status quo assessments to future predictions, and to support the construction of a national ecological civilization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since land use/cover change profoundly impacts climate change and global warming has become an irreversible trend in the Anthropocene, there have been numerous global studies on the impact of climate change on vegetation growth (VG). However, the effects of climate extremes on the growth and direction of various vegetation types need to be better investigated, especially in the climate transition zones. In this paper, we examined the effect of diurnal warming on the growth of various types of vegetation in China's north–south transition zone. Based on the daily observation data of 92 meteorological stations in the Qinling-Daba (Qinba) mountainous area from 1982 to 2015, coupled with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and data on the type of vegetation. This research examined the temporal changes in the highest and lowest temperatures during the last 33 years using trend analysis. Second-order correlation analysis was used to investigate vegetation NDVI response characteristics to diurnal warming and to examine the effect of diurnal warming on the growth of different vegetation types. Our results showed that maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) showed an obvious upward trend, with the daytime temperature increase rate 1.2 times that at night, but failing the t-test. In addition, diurnal warming promoted vegetation growth, with NDVI associated positively correlated with Tmax at approximately 91.2% of the sites and 3492 rasters and with Tmin at roughly 53.25% of the sites and 2864 rasters. Spatial significance analysis showed an apparent difference, but few areas passed the t-test. Furthermore, daytime warming enhanced the growth of grasses, shrubs, deciduous broad-leaved forests, crops, and conifers, while the effect of nighttime warming on VG had a positive effect only on the growth of evergreen broad-leaved forest vegetation. These findings reveal the mechanisms of the impact of climate extremes on VG under global change, particularly the extent to which different vegetation types in climatic transitional zones respond to climate extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Yellow Sea, located at the intersection of the Eurasian continent and North Pacific Ocean at mid-latitudes, is a sensitive area subjected to the joint actions of the ocean, land, and monsoons. On its southern shore, loess and paleosol sedimentary sequences were widely developed during the last interglacial period, which is of great significance for revealing patterns of climate change and dynamic conditions. In this paper, we focus on the Zhifu section (ZFS) on Zhifu Island within the Shandong Province of China. The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating method was used to construct our chronological framework. Grain size and its endmember (EM) components were then analyzed; EM1 is a clay component EM, which represents a weak dynamic environment and strong weathering pedogenesis, while EM2 and EM3 are silt and very fine sand component EMs, respectively, representing a strong dynamic environment and weak weathering pedogenesis. Maximum EM1, mean grain size, clay content, and pH values occur in the paleosol layers (ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8), with minimum values in the loess layers (ZF5 and ZF7); EM3 values show the opposite pattern. This indicates that the ZF4, ZF6, and ZF8 layers represent warm and humid environments with abundant precipitation, where the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) was enhanced, corresponding to Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5a, 5c, and 5e. In contrast, ZF5 and ZF7 represent sub-warm and humid environments with less precipitation, where the EASM was weakened, corresponding to MIS 5b and 5d. Among these stages, MIS5e is the warmest and wettest. These climatic events reveal the pattern of climate fluctuation over a ten-thousand-year timescale; they are synchronous with climate changes recorded in other geological repositories, such as cave stalagmites in southern China and sea-level fluctuations in the Yellow-Bohai Sea, which result from changes in global solar radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Desertification is one of the main obstacles to global sustainable development. Monitoring, evaluating and mastering its driving factors are very important for the prevention and control of desertification. As one of the largest deserts in China, the development of desertification in Otindag Sandy Land (OSL) resulted in the reduction in land productivity and serious ecological/environmental consequences. Although many ecological restoration projects have been carried out, the vegetation restoration of OSL and the impact mechanism of climate and human activities on desertification remain unclear. Methods: Taking OSL as the research area, this paper constructs the desertification index by using the remote sensing images and meteorological and socio-economic data, between 1986 and 2016, and analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution process and driving factors of desertification by using trend analysis and spearman rank correlation. Results: The results showed that: (1) Desertification in the OSL has fluctuated greatly during the past 30 years. Desertification recovered between 1986 and 1990, expanded and increased between 1990 and 2000, reduced between 2000 and 2004, developed rapidly between 2004 and 2007, and recovered again between 2007 and 2016; (2) The desertification of OSL is dominated by a non-significant change trend, accounting for 73.27%. In the significant change trend, the area of desertification rising trend is 20.32%, which is mainly located in the north and east, and the area of declining trend is 6.41%, which is mainly located in the southwest; (3) Desertification is the result of the superposition of climate and human activities. Climate change is the main influencing factor, followed by human activities, and the superposition effects of the two are spatio-temporal differences. Conclusions: These results shed light on the development of desertification in OSL and the relative importance and complex interrelationship between human activities and climate in regulating the process of desertification. Based on this, we suggest continuing to implement the ecological restoration policy and avoid the destruction of vegetation by large-scale animal husbandry in order to improve the situation of desertification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]