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With the development of the market economy, agricultural trade has become more and more significant for the development of the agricultural economy, which has triggered people's further thinking and exploration on the impact of agricultural trade on agricultural carbon emissions. This paper takes the measurement of trade implied carbon as the carbon dioxide emission index under the impact of agricultural trade and analyzes the impact of trade implied carbon and implied carbon balance on carbon emission. Taking the impact of Sino-US agricultural trade as an empirical background, this paper measures the impact of environmental changes in agricultural trade opening on China's agricultural development and its carbon emissions, so as to predict changes in China's regional agricultural carbon emissions performance. After calculation, it is found that the scale of China's exports has decreased by 0.089%, which is lower than the decline of 0.361% in the United States. The trade conflict has a significant impact on China's import and export structure. Under the scenario of mutual tariffs on agricultural products, China's exports to the United States are expected to decrease by 6.28%, while China's imports from the United States decreased by 13.02%. The Sino-US agricultural trade dispute will reduce China's carbon emissions by 0.013% and the United States' carbon emissions by 0.024%, which is related to the negative impact on the economy. Improving the performance of agricultural carbon emissions is not only the need for the green and sustainable development of the agricultural economy but also conducive to improving the international competitiveness of agricultural products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk assessment of drought disaster is necessary for the sustained agriculture development under the background of global climate change, and, meanwhile, it is an urgent scientific issue needed to be solved in agricultural risk assessment discipline. In this paper, collecting the areas covered by drought disasters, areas affected by drought disasters, areas with no harvest by drought disasters, areas planted, and yield per unit area data, agricultural drought disasters losses of the southern five provinces in China were calculated. The best probability density function was obtained according to the goodness of fit test results. Then, the value at risk (VaR) from financial market risk research method was used to the effective measure of agricultural drought risk. The results show that, in southern five provinces of our research region, risk of agricultural drought disaster in Yunnan and Guizhou is greater than other three provinces. In the scenario of 50 years and 100 years for a return, the crop loss caused by drought will reach 13.6% and 17.4% in Yunnan province, and the crop loss will be more serious in Guizhou province and be up to 15.3% and 18.1%. The above results can provide multifaceted information about drought risk that can help to guide management of drought disasters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the level of agricultural material equipment, the level of agricultural output benefit, the level of agricultural economic structure, the level of agricultural industrialization management, the level of agricultural sustainable development, and the level of rural social and economic development, based on 15 indicators, an index system for evaluating the comprehensive capacity of modern agricultural development in Huizhou was constructed. The comprehensive evaluation of the development level of modern agriculture in Huizhou from 2012 to 2018 was measured by the entropy weight method, and the evaluation was analyzed with the average level of Guangdong Province. We find out the gap between the development advantages of Huizhou and the average level of Guangdong Province, so as to promote the development of modern agriculture in Huizhou. Based on the comprehensive evaluation index of the development level of modern agriculture in Huizhou from 2012 to 2018 obtained by the entropy weight method, a fractional cumulative grey GM (1, 1) forecasting model was established, and its development ability was predicted and analyzed. The forecast result has certain guiding significance to the development of modern agriculture in Huizhou. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]