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Rainfall-induced landslides not only cause property loss, but also kill and injure large numbers of people every year in mountainous areas in China. These losses and casualties may be avoided to some extent with rainfall threshold values used in an early warning system at a regional scale for the occurrence of landslides. However, the limited availability of data always causes difficulties. In this paper we present a method to calculate rainfall threshold values with limited data sets for the two rainfall parameters: maximum hourly rainfall intensity and accumulated precipitation. The method has been applied to the Huangshan region, in Anhui Province, China. Four early warning levels (Zero, Outlook, Attention, and Warning) have been adopted and the corresponding rainfall threshold values have been defined by probability lines. A validation procedure showed that this method can significantly enhance the effectiveness of a warning system, and finally reduce the risk from shallow landslides in mountainous regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, droughts have frequently hit China's terrestrial ecosystems. How these droughts affected carbon sequestration by China's terrestrial ecosystems is still unclear. In this study, the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, driven by remotely sensed vegetation parameters, was employed to assess the effects of droughts on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of terrestrial ecosystems in China for the period from 2000 to 2011. Different categories of droughts, as indicated by a standard precipitation index (SPI), extensively hit terrestrial ecosystems in China, particularly in 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011. The national total NEP exhibited a slight decline of -11.3 TgCyr-2 during the study period, mainly due to large reductions of NEP in typical drought-hit years 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011, ranging from 61.1 TgCyr-1 to 168.8 TgCyr-1. National and regional total NEP anomalies were correlated with corresponding annual mean SPI, especially in Northwest China, North China, Central China, and Southwest China. In drought years, the reductions of NEP might be caused by a larger decrease in gross primary productivity (GPP) than in respiration (RE) (2001 and 2011), a decrease in GPP and an increase in RE (2009), or a larger increase in RE than in GPP (2006). Droughts had lagged effects of up to 3-6 months on NEP due to different reactions of GPP and RE to droughts. In east humid and warm parts of China, droughts have predominant and short-term lagged influences on NEP. In western cold and arid regions, the effects of droughts on NEP were relatively weaker and might last for a longer period of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coupling of the carbon and nutrient cycles drives the food web structure and biogeochemistry of ecosystems. However, across precipitation gradients, there may be a shift in C and N pools from above- to belowground because of shifting plant stoichiometry and allocation. Here, we present a study which is the first to explicitly compare above- and belowground pool sizes of N and C within predominant plant species along precipitation gradient. We dissected these pools into biomass allocation and nutrient concentrations. Based on previous evidence, biomass allocation to roots should increase with aridity, while leaf [N] should increase. If their effect sizes are equal, they should cancel each other out, and the above- and belowground proportions of the N would remain constant. Along a precipitation gradient in Chinese steppe zone, the effect sizes of the biomass shifts were remarkably consistent among the predominant species, Stipa grandis. The effect sizes of biomass allocation and [N] were equal and the proportion of N of above- and belowground did not change with aridity, but the shift in leaf [C] with aridity was much weaker than the biomass shift, leading to a decrease in the proportion of C belowground at dry sites. Precipitation gradients do decouple the C and N pool of S. grandis along a precipitation gradient in Chinese steppe zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Both long-term observation data and model simulations suggest an increasing chance of serious drought in the dry season and extreme flood in the wet season in Southern China, yet little is known about how changes in precipitation pattern will affect soil respiration in the region. We conducted a field experiment to study the responses of soil respiration to precipitation manipulations -- precipitation exclusion to mimic drought, double precipitation to simulate flood, and ambient precipitation (Abbr. EP, DP and AP, respectively) -- in three subtropical forests in Southern China. The three forests include Masson pine forest (PF), coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest (MF) and monsoon evergreen broadleaved forest (BF). Our observations showed that altered precipitation can strongly influence soil respiration, not only through the well-known direct effects of soil moisture, but also by modification on both moisture and temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. In the dry season, soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity in the three forests showed rising trends with precipitation increase, and its moisture sensitivity showed an opposite trend. In the wet season, the EP treatment also decreased soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity, and enhanced moisture sensitivity in all three forests. Soil respiration under the DP treatment increased significantly in the PF only, and no significant change was found for either moisture or temperature sensitivity. However, the DP treatment in the MF and BF reduced temperature sensitivity significantly. Our results indicated that soil respiration would decrease in the three subtropical forests if soil moisture continues to decrease in the future. More rainfall in the wet season could have limited effect on the response of soil respiration to the rising of temperature in the BF and MF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karst spring water dynamic characteristics and its response to atmospheric precipitation are of great significance for water resources utilization under the background of climate change. This paper selects Longzici spring area, North China, as the study area. Based on a long series of spring water flow and precipitation data, the dynamic characteristics of spring flow were analyzed and the numerical simulation of the groundwater flow model was established. The results show that the groundwater kept the sustained decline over the past decades which is in a negative equilibrium state, with a storage variable of − 2.26 million m3/year. The sensitivity of spring flow to precipitation under different precipitation scenarios shows that the water level changes in the recharge and drainage areas are similar about (3–5 cm) and slightly larger than that in the runoff area(1.5 cm) when minimum rainfall (287.24 mm) happens. When the precipitation is at its maximum (867.66 mm), the water level change in the runoff area can reach 95 cm which is much larger than those in the recharge and discharge areas. The results indicate that Longzici karst spring has a relatively good regulation water resource capacity and the runoff area is more sensitive which plays an important role in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease that threatens human safety. Mainland China is an area with a high incidence of tuberculosis, and the task of tuberculosis prevention and treatment is arduous. This paper aims to study the impact of seven influencing factors and spatial–temporal distribution of the relative risk (RR) of tuberculosis in mainland China using the spatial–temporal distribution model and INLA algorithm. The relative risks and confidence intervals (CI) corresponding to average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average sunshine duration and monthly per capita GDP were 1.018 (95% CI 1.001–1.034), 1.014 (95% CI 1.006–1.023), 1.026 (95% CI 1.014–1.039) and 1.025 (95% CI 1.011–1.040). The relative risk for average temperature and pressure were 0.956 (95% CI 0.942–0.969) and 0.767 (95% CI 0.664–0.875). Spatially, the two provinces with the highest relative risks are Xinjiang and Guizhou, and the remaining provinces with higher relative risks were mostly concentrated in the Northwest and South China regions. Temporally, the relative risk decreased year by year from 2013 to 2015. It was higher from February to May each year and was most significant in March. It decreased from June to December. Average relative humidity, monthly average precipitation, monthly average sunshine duration and monthly per capita GDP had positive effects on the relative risk of tuberculosis. The average temperature and pressure had negative effects. The average wind speed had no significant effect. Mainland China should adapt measures to local conditions and develop tuberculosis prevention and control strategies based on the characteristics of different regions and time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to more reasonably predict runoff under extreme precipitation and corresponding meteorological conditions, and explore the influences of annual precipitation and extreme precipitation on the runoff process, this paper proposes an improved precipitation stochastic simulation model and combine it with Weather Generator based on Dry and Wet Spells (WGDWS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Taking a typical mountainous basin in North China, the basin above the Wangkuai Reservoir, as the study area, the daily precipitation process and corresponding meteorological data for six extreme precipitation scenarios are generated as inputs of the SWAT model to predict monthly runoff. The results reveal that the annual runoff under the six scenarios is 5.41 m3/s, 5.95 m3/s, 6.57 m3/s, 7.02 m3/s, 7.74 m3/s and 8.04 m3/s, with maximum monthly runoff of 18.10 m3/s, 21.71 m3/s, 21.94 m3/s, 32.69 m3/s, 34.33 m3/s, 43.72 m3/s, respectively. For the same annual precipitation, the extreme precipitation magnitude has a significant effect on annual runoff, but this impact weakens as annual precipitation increases, and the influence on monthly runoff is reflected mainly in August. Moreover, under the same extreme precipitation conditions, the annual runoff increases by approximately 10% if the annual precipitation increases by 100 mm, and the influence on monthly runoff is reflected only in July. The coupling of the improved precipitation stochastic simulation, WGDWS and SWAT model not only presents a technical reference for water conservancy project operation management and water resource management under extreme precipitation scenarios, but also provides a new idea for predicting runoff under extreme precipitation and corresponding meteorological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, typhoon simply means tropical cyclone. As risk is future probability of hazard events, when estimated future probability is the same as historical probability for a specific period, we can understand risk by learning from past events. Based on precipitation and wind data over the mainland of China during 1980–2014 and disaster and social data at the county level in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2012, a study on risk zoning of typhoon disasters (typhoon disasters in this paper refer to affected population or direct economic losses caused by typhoons in Zhejiang Province) is carried out. Firstly, characteristics of typhoon disasters and factors causing typhoon disasters are analyzed. Secondly, an intensity index of factors causing typhoon disasters and a population vulnerability index are developed. Thirdly, combining the two indexes, a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters is obtained and used to zone areas of risk. The above analyses show that southeastern Zhejiang is the area most affected by typhoon disasters. The annual probability of the occurrence of typhoon rainstorms >50 mm decreases from the southeast coast to inland areas, with a maximum in the boundary region between Fujian and Zhejiang, which has the highest risk of rainstorms. Southeastern Zhejiang and the boundary region between Zhejiang and Fujian provinces and the Hangzhou Bay area are most frequently affected by extreme typhoon winds and have the highest risk of wind damage. The population of southwestern Zhejiang is the most vulnerable to typhoons as a result of the relatively undeveloped economy, mountainous terrain and the high risk of geological disasters in this region. Vulnerability is lower in the cities due to better disaster prevention and reduction strategies and a more highly educated population. The southeast coastal areas face the highest risk of typhoon disasters, especially in the boundary region between Taizhou and Wenzhou cities. Although the inland mountainous areas are not directly affected by typhoons, they are in the medium-risk category for vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors note that: "Fig. 5 in the published paper appeared incorrectly. The correct figure and the figure caption are provided below. The main message and the interpretation of our paper remain unaffected by this correction." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The northwest region in China located at arid and semiarid areas, atmospheric precipitation converted by the cloud is an important part of water resources, and if we fully utilize cloud for cloud‐water conversion to alleviate the scarcity of water, thereby it is particularly important to analyze the macroscopic characteristics and the changing trends of clouds in the northwest region. In this paper, the 2016 Level 1 data of Fengyun Satellite has been calibrated, corrected, and processed, using the improved multi‐spectral thresholding method to calculate cloud coverage and cloud classification data. The optical thickness inversion uses the SBDART (Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer) radiation transmission mode to establish a radiation look‐up table with optical thickness as a function variable under different conditions of observation geometry, underlying surface type, and atmospheric environment. The results show that the coverage of clouds in the northwest region accounts for about 45%, and the cloud coverage changes with the seasons. The classification of clouds mainly consists of high clouds, low clouds, and cumulonimbus. The optical thickness of clouds is largely distributed between 10 and 25. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of geothermal field characteristics and the mechanisms involved in the hydrogeochemical evolution of geothermal fluids is an effective means to understand the formation, reservoir conditions and circulation mechanics of geothermal resources. Documenting these parameters within the Rongcheng Bulge of Xiong'an New Area, China, is of great significance to its future development and utilization as a geothermal resource. In this paper, we investigate the hydrochemical characteristics of geothermal fluids and the rock thermal properties of the Rongcheng Bulge Reservoir and the surrounding rocks to identify the mechanisms of geothermal fluid genesis within the geothermal field. The results show that the geothermal water in the Rongcheng Bulge is mainly recharged by atmospheric rainfall. The thermal storage temperature at which the deep geothermal fluid is located ranges between 63 and 105 °C, whereas the depth of geothermal water circulation is between 1500 and 2700 m. Fluid exchange is weak during deep circulation, but as the geothermal fluid rises, the proportion of cold water mixed with the geothermal waters is 75–95%. The overall geothermal gradient of the carbonate thermal reservoir is significantly lower than that within the overburden and basement rocks, probably due to convection during the upward transport of groundwater in the reservoir. The geothermal fluid in the area of the Rongcheng Bulge is recharged by the Taihang Mountains and atmospheric precipitation. Following recharge and deep circulation, the fluids rise along fractures and by interlayer convection and are mixed with cold water to form the current, accessible geothermal water. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we attempt to clarify the relationships between oilfield water and hydrocarbon distribution of the Triassic Baikouquan Formation, in the slope zone of Mahu depression, Junggar Basin, NW China, based on oilfield water mineralization degrees, diagenesis analysis, formation pressure coefficients, burial history, and thermal evolution processes. The results show that the study area can be divided into four zones according to the mineralization degrees, that is, (1) zone I: NaHCO3 + Na2SO4 type water with residual intergranular pores, porosity usually higher than 10%. The strata of zone I are generally buried shallow and influenced by leaching from atmospheric precipitation. This area contains normal edge and bottom water and has normal formation pressure coefficients (average 1.12); (2) zone II: CaCl2 type water with mainly compaction diagenesis, porosity usually less than 7% and high formation pressure coefficients (average 1.41); (3) zone III: NaHCO3 + CaCl2 type oilfield water with mainly feldspar dissolution diagenesis, porosity usually greater than 9% and high formation pressure coefficients (average 1.53); and (4) zone IV: CaCl2 type water, mainly compacted diagenesis with a few intergranular and feldspar dissolved pores, and high formation pressure coefficients (average 1.58). The mineralization degrees of the oilfield water in zone II, III, and IV are relatively high. The appearance of NaHCO3 type water in the deeply buried areas is usually related to oil and gas charging. Therefore, within the strata, deeply-buried areas (e.g., zone III), where NaHCO3 type water has been developed, are favorable targets for oil and gas exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Environmental prediction is one of the crucial means for social sustainable development. Based on the continuous sampling of atmospheric precipitation in Guanling County, Guizhou Province, China, from March 2016 to February 2017, and combining the reanalyzed data of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, this paper analyzed the variations of δ2H and δ18O in precipitation at the synoptic scale in the Guanling region. The results showed that the variations of δ2H, δ18O, and d-excess values in precipitation exhibited remarkable seasonal variability. The stable isotopic values in precipitation in the winter half-year were higher than those in the summer half-year. The meteoric water line of the winter half-year was close to the annual meteoric water line. The results showed that there was more than one fundamental source of moisture. It was affected by the winter monsoon period, which is longer than the summer monsoon period, so the local evaporation of water vapor participating in the water circulation had a greater impact. With the increase of precipitation, the intercept and slope of the meteoric water line gradually decreased, which indicated that the secondary evaporation was weak under the effect of stable isotope subcloud cluster. The correlations of precipitation δ18O with temperature T and precipitation P vary with time scales. As the time scale decreased, the correlation between δ18O and the temperature and precipitation improved. When P ≤ 5 mm and 10°C < T ≤ 30°C, the most sensitive changes in stable isotopes were observed. In the study area, the backward trajectory model showed that the moisture in the winter half of the year was mainly from the transportation of the westerlies wind, replenishment, and local reevaporation of near-source ocean water, while the water in the summer half of the year mainly came from the transportation of water from the ocean at low latitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the east ore section of the Pulang porphyry copper deposit is selected as the research object. The micro-thermometer and laser Raman spectroscopic technique are utilized to study the parameters of ore-forming fluids such as pressure, temperature, and compositions. In the meantime, the fractal models, including the perimeter-area (P-A) model and number-size (N-S) model, are introduced to quantify the shape of fluid inclusions, and distinguish the stages of ore-forming fluids, respectively. The results show that the types of fluid inclusions are diversified, namely two-phase liquid-rich type, two-phase vapor-rich type, three-phase CO2-rich type, three-phase halite-bearing type and pure liquid type. The fluids of main mineralization stage are characterized by medium-high temperature (170.2–421.4 °C), medium-high salinity (9.3 wt.%–33.3 wt.%), and low density (0.73–1.06 g/cm3). With the migration and evolution, the temperature, salinity, and pressure of ore-forming fluids gradually decrease, while the density of fluids increases. The liquid-phase compositions mainly include H2O, and the vapor-phase compositions consist of H2O, CH4, N2, and CO2, indicating the characteristics of reducing fluids and the mixing of atmospheric precipitation. In general, the characteristics of ore-forming fluids in the east ore section are similar to those of the first mining area, suggesting that the ore-forming fluids in the east ore section may not migrate from the first mining area. And the east ore section may be a relatively independent metallogenic system. Moreover, the fractal analysis results demonstrate that the shape of fluid inclusions formed in the same hydrothermal activity features self-similarity. The DAP values of fluid inclusions in B veins, ED veins, and D veins are 1.04, 1.06 and 1.10, respectively, showing a gradually increasing trend from the main stage to the late stage of mineralization. Meanwhile, the shape of fluid inclusions ranging from B veins to D veins becomes increasingly irregular. It also reveals that the homogenization temperature satisfies fractal distribution with four scale-invariant intervals, suggesting that all B veins, ED veins, and D veins have experienced at least four hydrothermal activities. Compared with histogram, the N-S fractal model is able to describe the distribution characteristics of the ore-forming fluids' homogenization temperature more precisely. Therefore, it presents a potential tool for the stage division of ore-forming fluids. This research provides information about the characteristics of ore-forming fluids in the east ore section of the Pulang porphyry copper deposit, which is beneficial for further exploration in this region, and the extension of the application of fractal models in the study of fluid inclusions. However, further testing of fractal models on the fluid inclusion study is warranted to fully determine the universality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is expected that climate warming will be experienced through increases in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, including droughts. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections for meteorological drought for four different time scales (1 month, and 3, 6 and 12 months) in the Beijiang River basin, South China, on the basis of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Observed changes in meteorological drought were analysed at 24 meteorological stations from 1969 to 2011. Future meteorological drought was projected based on the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, as projected by the regional climate model RegCM4.0. The statistical significance of the meteorological drought trends was checked with the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that drought has become more intense and more frequent in most parts of the study region during the past 43 years, mainly owing to a decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, long-term dryness is expected to be more pronounced than short-term dryness. Validation of the model simulation indicates that RegCM4.0 provides a good simulation of the characteristic values of SPEIs. During the twenty first century, significant drying trends are projected for most parts of the study region, especially in the southern part of the basin. Furthermore, the drying trends for RCP8.5 (or for long time scales) are more pronounced than for RCP4.5 (or for short time scales). Compared to the baseline period 1971-2000, the frequency of drought for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) tends to increase (decrease) in 2021-2050 and decrease (increase) in 2051-2080. The results of this paper will be helpful for efficient water resources management in the Beijiang River basin under climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzed the drought situation in southwestern China with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on multiple time scales. The spatial distribution, seasonal variation and features of drought in southwestern China were examined separately by drought frequency, probability of non-exceedance and runs theory. The results showed that the precipitation sequence will change suddenly near 2073 and an obvious, long-term drought will occur after 2073 due to the decline in precipitation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency indicated that the drought frequency will grow obviously in 2071–2100, and the growth rate will increase from the peripheral to the center of the region. The probability of non-exceedance for SPEI-1 less than − 1.0 will be 14.6% in the spring of 2011–2040, grow in 2041–2070 and reach 25.9% in 2071–2100, while that of SPEI in winter will gradually increase in all periods. When the SPEI-12 is smaller than − 1.0, the non-exceedance probability of the index in all seasons of 1981–2100 was and will be growing gradually, indicating that climate change has and will cause severe droughts in spring and winter from 1981 through 2100, especially the medium- and long-term drought. Through the analysis of the SPI and SPEI time sequences by runs theory, it is observed that the drought severity predicted by SPI-12 was and will be increasing over time, and the long-term drought will become more serious. On all time scales, if the SPEI is smaller than − 1.0, the drought duration will gradually increase from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100, indicating the drought in the study region will worsen due to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoration of natural vegetation in arid and semi‐arid grasslands is facing severe challenges. The vegetation is easy to lose their vitality, resulting in the loss of the cover in natural grasslands under the high grazing pressure. To address this situation, this paper proposes a novel method for accurately predicting the grazing pressure using the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input (NARX) network based on the remote sensing data of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation. The proposed method uses the NARX networks to predict the temporal variations of the NDVI with respect to the precipitation. The grazing pressure can be thus calculated using the predicted values of the NDVI. For practical application, this study investigated an arid and semi‐arid grassland with heavy grazing pressure in Hulunbuir, China. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can provide an accurate prediction of the grazing pressure (mean absolute error 0.103, root‐mean‐square error 0.122, mean absolute percentage error 8.36% and coefficient of determination 0.899 at the confidence interval of 95%). In addition, the predicted values of the grazing pressure in the study area during the years from 2016 to 2020 can be obtained using the proposed method. The proposed method can obtain a good prediction of the grazing pressure, which can be further used as a guidance for the rangeland managers to reduce the occurrence of the overgrazing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The roles of moisture sources and transport in intraseasonal precipitation variabilities during the preflood season over South China are complex and different. In this paper, ERA‐Interim reanalysis data that were collected four times daily from 1979 to 2017 are used to analyse the variation and influence of moisture transport in intraseasonal precipitation during the preflood season over South China. Using the Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, fixed atmospheric moisture sources are defined: land area source (LD source), Indian Ocean source (IO source), Pacific Ocean source (PO source), South China Sea source (SCS source), and South China source (SC source). Sea source moisture transport accounts for more than 75% of the total precipitation during the preflood season, which is the most important moisture source in South China. For April, southeasterly moisture transport, which includes PO source and SCS source moisture transports, is the major moisture transport over South China. Then, the IO source and SCS source precipitation increased significantly during May. During June, the IO source precipitation accounted for 43.75% of the total precipitation, thus dominating precipitation over South China. In addition, there is a significant difference in the interdecadal variation in the preflood season precipitation before and after the Indian summer monsoon onset. Before the Indian summer monsoon onset, the land‐sea thermal contrast decreased, which led to a significant interdecadal reduction in the IO source, PO source, and SCS source moisture transports. After the Indian summer monsoon onset, the increase in IO source moisture transport is the primary cause of the interdecadal increase in precipitation over South China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal prediction of extreme precipitation has long been a challenge especially for the East Asian Summer Monsoon region, where extreme rains are often disastrous for the human society and economy. This paper introduces a decision‐tree (DT) method for predicting extreme precipitation in the rainy season over South China in April–June (SC‐AMJ) and the North China Plain in July–August (NCP‐JA). A number of preceding climate indices are adopted as predictors. In both cases, the DT models involving ENSO and NAO indices exhibit the best performance with significant skills among those with other combinations of predictors and are superior to their linear counterpart, the binary logistic regression model. The physical mechanisms for the DT results are demonstrated by composite analyses of the same DT path samples. For SC‐AMJ, an extreme season can be determined mainly via two paths: the first follows a persistent negative NAO phase in February–March; the second goes with decaying El Niño. For NCP‐JA, an extreme season can also be traced via two paths: the first is featured by "non El Niño" and an extremely negative NAO phase in the preceding winter; the second follows a shift from El Niño in the preceding winter to La Niña in the early summer. Most of the mechanisms underlying the decision rules have been documented in previous studies, while some need further studies. The present results suggest that the decision‐tree approach takes advantage of discovering and incorporating various nonlinear relationships in the climate system, hence is of great potential for improving the prediction of seasonal extreme precipitation for given regions with increasing sample observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on wintertime extreme precipitation in China from 1961 to 2017, and possibly different influences of two El Niño types are also examined. We find that ENSO poses profound influences on extreme precipitation in many portions of China. El Niño (La Niña) intensifies (weakens) the winter precipitation extremes in southeastern China (SEC) and slightly weakens (intensifies) those in central-north China, mainly by changing the frequency rather than the intensity of extreme precipitation. Further analysis suggests that the East Asian winter monsoon tends to be weaker during El Niño winters, suppressing the southward invasion of cold dry air. Via the weakened Walker circulation, El Niño also triggers anomalously descending motion and anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP), which exhibits southwesterly anomalies over SEC and is thus conducive to the transport of sufficient moisture into that area. The changes over WNP are also accompanied by ascending motions over East Asia via a local meridional circulation alike the Pacific–Japan pattern. Meanwhile, El Niño induces a southward-displaced East Asian jet stream, as characterized by intensified westerly over southern China, corresponding to anomalously ascending motion there. Together, these changes facilitate the updrafts of circulations and the condensation of water vapor, thus increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events in SEC. Moreover, we find that different Niño types exhibit distinct subregional influences. In particular, the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño significantly increases the frequency of extreme precipitation in South China, whereas the Modoki central Pacific El Niño mainly impacts that in East China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examined the spatial and temporal variations in precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in China based on daily precipitation data from 2050 weather stations from 1973 to 2016. We used two Markov chain parameters to quantify the wet persistence and dry persistence that characterizes the temporal pattern of wet and dry days, respectively. We found that China's annual precipitation changed little from 1973 to 2016, but varied dramatically from 524 to 688mm yr-1, with an average of 592 mm yr-1, during this period. China's precipitation frequency, the number of days with effective precipitation (.0.1mmday21) in a year, significantly decreased at a rate of 0.9 days decade21 from 1973 to 2016, but precipitation intensity significantly increased at a rate of 0.12 mm day-1 decade-1 during the same period. Of the changes in China's total precipitation amount, precipitation intensity played a dominant role, contributing 70.8%, while precipitation frequency contributed the remaining 29.2%. Little change was found in the wet persistence in China over the period of 1973-2016, but the dry persistence significantly increased with an average increasing trend of 1.62 3 1023 probability per decade during the same period, and no significant correlations were found between these two variables. China's precipitation also changed nonuniformly in space, with increasing trends in precipitation amount, frequency, intensity, and wet persistence in western and northeastern China but decreasing trends in the Sichuan basin, northeast of Inner Mongolia, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the observed daily precipitation data across East China, this paper analyzes spatiotemporal changes of annual and seasonal extreme precipitation indices during 1960–2015. Effects of changes in atmospheric circulation on seasonal extremes were also detected by using the singular value decomposition method. Results show that amount of annual, spring and summer extreme precipitation over East China showed a significant increase with a maximum changing rate of 7.2, 3.2 and 5.4 mm decade−1, and the stations with upward tendency mainly located in the southern part of East China. Preceding sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean and the Equatorial Pacific Ocean shows great influences on spring extreme precipitation over East China through modulating anomalous anticyclones and winds, especially over the downstream of the south of East China. Summer extreme precipitation is statistically significantly correlated with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and positive anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential heights. Anomalously strong WPSH combining with two blocking highs in mid-latitude regions tends to trigger more extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin but less in the Yellow River Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Watershed management, disaster warning, and hydrological modeling require accurate spatiotemporal precipitation data sets. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of a gauge-satellite-based precipitation product that merges the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR) satellite precipitation product (SPP) and ground precipitation data at 134 rain gauges in the Xijiang River basin, South China. Two regression-based schemes, principal component regression (PCR) and multiple linear regression (MLR), were used to combine the gauge-based precipitation data and PERSIANN-CDR SPP and were compared at daily and annual scales. Furthermore, a hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity was used to calculate streamflow and to evaluate the impact of four different precipitation interpolation methods on the results of the hydrological model at the daily scale. The result shows that the PCR method performs better than MLR and can effectively eliminate the interpolation anomalies caused by terrain differences between observation points and surrounding areas. On the whole, the combined scheme consistently exhibits good performance and thus serves as a suitable tool for producing high-resolution gauge-and satellite-based precipitation datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The statistical characteristics of precipitation play an extremely important role in the risk assessment of drought and flood disasters and water resource management. In this paper, the precipitation concentration degree (PCD), precipitation concentration period (PCP) and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were used to analyse the spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration characteristics in China from 1960 to 2015. In addition, the cross-wavelet transform was used to analyse the possible dependencies and spatial characteristics between these three precipitation concentration indices (PCD, PCP and PCI) and monsoon indices (East Asian summer monsoon index, EASMI; South Asian summer monsoon index, SASMI; and South China Sea summer monsoon index, SCSSMI) of nine river basins in China. The results show that the spatial distribution of precipitation concentration indices in China has obvious north-south and east-west variability. China's precipitation concentration indices are generally declining, with weak volatility. Among these indices, the PCD (P < 0.05) and PCI (P < 0.01) have decreased significantly at rates of − 0.005/10 year and − 0.006/10 year, respectively, while there has been no obvious decrease in the PCP. Compared with the PCD before 1978, the PCD in the rainy season after 1978 has decreased. In most areas, the rainy season is concentrated in July every year; however, the rainy season has been delayed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and has advanced mainly in the other basins. The PCI has declined since 1978, indicating a decreasing contribution of heavy precipitation to the total annual precipitation, but this change in the PCI has occurred mainly at high-value stations (PCI > 0.7), and the PCI at low-value stations has increased. Most of China's precipitation concentration indices and monsoon indices, as well as the NWRB, have small-scale (2–4 years) or medium-scale (12–15 years) oscillation periods. The oscillation periods between the precipitation concentration indices and monsoon indices in the Yangtze and Pearl River basins are more significant than those in other basins. The results of this study can help to understand the differences among the precipitation concentration characteristics in different basins in China and the intrinsic relationship between these characteristics and the summer monsoon and provide a reference for further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In karst terrains, fractures and conduits often occur in clusters, forming groundwater quick flow belts, which are the major passages of groundwater and solute transport. We propose a cost-effective method that utilizes precipitation and spring discharge data to identify groundwater quick flow belts by the multitaper method (MTM). In this paper, hydrological processes were regarded as the transformation of precipitation signals to spring discharge signals in a karst spring catchment. During the processes, karst aquifers played the role of signal filters. Only those signals with high energy could penetrate through aquifers and reflect in the spring discharge, while other weak signals were filtered out or altered by aquifers. Hence, MTM was applied to detect and reconstruct the signals that penetrate through aquifers. Subsequently, by analyzing the reconstructed signals of precipitation with those of spring discharge, we acquired the hydraulic response time and identified the quick flow belts. Finally, the methods were applied to the Niangziguan Spring (NS) catchment, China. Results showed that the hydraulic response time of the spring discharge to precipitation was 3 months at Pingding County; 4 months at Yuxian County, Yangquan City, Xiyang County, and Heshun County; and 27 months at Shouyang County and Zouquan County. These results suggested that Pingding County is located at a groundwater quick flow belt, which is a major passage of groundwater and contaminants, in the NS catchment. This is important since Pingding County is not only the key development area of karst groundwater but also the key conservation area for sustainable development of karst groundwater resources in NS catchment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition (Ndep), an important component of the global N cycle, has increased sharply in recent decades in China. Although there were already some studies on Ndep on a national scale, there were some gaps on the magnitude and the spatial patterns of Ndep. In this study, a national-scale Ndep pattern was constructed based on 139 published papers from 2003 to 2014 and the effects of precipitation (P), energy consumption (E) and N fertilizer use (FN) on spatial patterns of Ndep were analyzed. The wet deposition flux of NH4+-N, NO3--N and total Ndep was 6.83, 5.35 and 12.18 kg ha-1 a-1, respectively. Ndep exhibited a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest of China. Through accuracy assessment of the spatial Ndep distribution and comparisons with other studies, the spatial Ndep distribution by Lu and Tian and this study both gained high accuracy. A strong exponential function was found between P and Ndep, FN and Ndep and E and Ndep, and P and FN had higher contribution than E on the spatial variation of Ndep. Fossil fuel combustion was the main contributor for NO3--N (86.0%) and biomass burning contributed 5.4% on the deposition of NO3--N. The ion of NH4+ was mainly from agricultural activities (85.9%) and fossil fuel combustion (6.0%). Overall, Ndep in China might be considerably affected by the high emissions of NOx and NH3 from fossil fuel combustion and agricultural activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Groundwater quality and availability in coastal aquifers have become a serious concern in recent times due to increased abstraction for domestic, agricultural and industrial purposes. (1) Background: Zhuhai city is selected as a representative coastal aquifer in Southern China to comprehensively evaluate the hydrochemical characteristics, spatial distribution and controlling mechanisms of groundwater. (2) Methods: A detailed study utilizing statistical analyses, a Piper diagram, Gibbs plots, and ion ratios was conducted on 114 surface water samples and 211 groundwater samples. (3) Results: The findings indicate that the pH of most groundwater is from 6.06 to 6.52, indicating a weakly acidic environment. The pH of surface water ranges from 5.35 to 9.86, with most values being weakly alkaline. The acidity in the groundwater may be related to the acidic atmospheric precipitation, an acidic unsaturated zone, oxidation of sulphide minerals and tidal action. The groundwater chemical types are predominantly mixed, followed by Ca-Mg-HCO3 type. Surface water samples are predominantly Na-Cl-SO4 type. The NO3− concentration in groundwater is relatively high, with a mean value of 17.46 mg/L. The NO2− and NH4+ concentrations in groundwater are relatively low, with mean values of 0.46 mg/L and 7.58 mg/L. (4) Conclusions: The spatial distribution of the principal chemical constituents in the groundwater is related to the landform. The chemical characteristics of groundwater in the study area are mainly controlled by the weathering and dissolution of silicate and sulfate minerals, evaporation, seawater mixing and cation exchange. Nitrate in clastic fissure groundwater, granite fissure groundwater and unconfined pore groundwater primarily originates from atmospheric precipitation, agricultural activities of slope farmland and forest land. Nitrate in confined pore groundwater and karst groundwater primarily originates from domestic sewage and mariculture wastewater. Our findings elucidate the processes characterizing the hydrogeology and surface water interactions in Zhuhai City's coastal system, which are relevant to other catchments with similar geological characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northern margin of the North China Craton is one of the most important porphyry-skarn molybdenum ore belts in the world. The eastern Hebei Province, which contains a high number of molybdenum and gold (molybdenum) resources, is an important portion of the northern margin of the North China Craton. Xichanggou and Huashi, located in eastern Hebei, are quartz-molybdenum vein deposits that are intimately associated with intrusions that are deeply concealed in the mining area. This work presents two zircon U-Pb dates and ten molybdenite Re-Os ages from samples of the aforementioned two deposits in order to determine the timing of the intrusion and mineralization. The zircon U-Pb ages of the quartz monzonite porphyry from Xichanggou are determined to be 163.3 ± 0.3 Ma and 162.8 ± 0.4 Ma. The molybdenite Re-Os dating yielded ages of 160.3 ± 4.6 Ma for Xichanggou and 171.4 ± 19 Ma for Huashi, respectively. The isotopic composition of oxygen and hydrogen of the ore-forming fluid from Huashi, as indicated by the δDV-SMOW values (−80.0‰ to −67.6‰) and δ18OH2O values (−1.86‰ to 2.33‰), suggests that the fluid is primarily composed of water derived from magma, with some contribution from atmospheric precipitation. The sulfur isotope values (δ34S) of sulfides from Xichanggou range from 6.5‰ to 7.1‰, while the δ34S values from Huashi range from 3.3‰ to 4.9‰. The lead isotope ratios (206Pb/204Pb and 207Pb/204Pb) of sulfides from Xichanggou and Huashi average at 17.414, 15.428, and 17.591, 15.379, respectively. The Re-Os isotopic compositions of ore sulfides mostly fall within the range of 318 ppm to 50,114 ppm. These isotopic compositions indicate that the materials responsible for the formation of the ores in Xichanggou and Huashi primarily originate from the melting of lower crust materials that have been contaminated by the mantle. Based on the regional data, the molybdenum deposits in eastern Hebei were formed in multiple periods, specifically approximately 170 Ma and 160 Ma in Huahsi and Xichanggou, respectively. The subduction of the Paleo-Pacific plate during the middle–late Jurassic period led to the partial remelting of lower crust material, resulting in the acquisition of a significant quantity of metal elements (Mo), which were subsequently deposited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attenuation correction of measured reflectivity (Z H) and differential reflectivity (Z DR) is critical in short-wavelength radar applications, especially during extreme precipitation events such as heavy rain. This paper develops an improved self-consistent approach (improved ZPHI method) for attenuation correction in practical environment. In particular, a non-negative constraint is imposed on the specific attenuation, which is inferred from the monotonic increasing characteristic of differential propagation phase (Φ DP). The copolar correlation coefficient (ρ HV) is used to partition the Φ DP profiles into independent range segments, which are featured by different hydrometeor phases such as liquid rain or mixed-phase precipitation. Additional minimization constraint is imposed on the cost function of the difference between preprocessed Φ DP and reconstructed Φ DP to ensure its appropriate convergence. In addition, an exponential Z DR − Z H relation derived from local raindrop size distribution (DSD) data is applied in the procedure of Z DR correction. Polarimetric measurements from a C-band radar (CPOL) in Hangzhou of China during two extreme precipitation events are used to demonstrate the improved attenuation correction method. DSD observations from disdrometers and radar data from a nearby system operating at non-attenuated frequency (i.e., S-band) at Huangshan Mountain are used to evaluate the attenuation correction performance. This paper also studies the impact of attenuation correction on the radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) product, through cross-comparison with rain gauge observations. Results show that the polarimetric observations from CPOL radar are effectively enhanced and more consistent with collocated S-band measurements and the simulated radar moments based on DSD data. Hourly rainfall products derived from R (Z H) and R (Z H , Z DR) are significantly improved, which are comparable to R (K DP) after attenuation correction. • An improved attenuation correction method is proposed for C-band polarimetric radar applications. • The routinely operating C-band radar in Hangzhou, China is used to demonstrate the proposed attenuation correction scheme. • Cross-comparison with disdrometer data and collocated S-band observations shows great performance of this correction method. • The QPE products derived from R (Z H) and R (Z H , Z DR) are significantly improved after attenuation correction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China during 1979–2014 and possible reasons for it are investigated in this paper. There is a significant interdecadal change in the intensity of interannual variation of spring precipitation over southern China around 1995/96. The intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over South China is stronger during 1979–95 than that during 1996–2014. The possible reason may be the larger amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the western Pacific Ocean (WP) before 1995/96. The cooler (warmer) SSTA in WP may trigger an abnormal local anticyclone (cyclone) at lower levels. The anomalous southwesterly (northeasterly) flow at the northwestern flank of the WP anticyclone (cyclone) covers South China, transporting more (less) moisture to South China. Meanwhile, the anomalous winds converge (diverge) in South China at lower levels and diverge (converge) at upper levels, which causes the anomalous ascent (descent) to enhance (reduce) the precipitation over there. However, during 1996–2014, the intensity of interannual variation of spring rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley becomes much stronger than that during 1979–95, which is related to the intensified interannual variation of the atmospheric circulation in the middle and high latitudes over Eurasia. The weak (strong) Siberian high and East Asian trough may reduce (enhance) the northerly wind from the middle and high latitudes. As a result, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley are subjected to the anomalous southerly wind, favoring more (less) precipitation over there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen and oxygen stable isotopes are natural tracers and have played an important role in the investigation of hydrological processes. In this paper, year-round precipitation samples were collected and measured in Chengdu, a subtropical monsoon climate region, to compare the stable isotope characteristics in precipitation and their influencing factors between dry and wet seasons. The results showed that the seasonal variation of δD and δ18O in precipitation was significant, and the isotopic values in precipitation in dry season were more enriched than those in wet season. The slope and intercept of local meteoric water line (LMWL) in Chengdu were lower than those in the southeast monsoon region of China but higher than those in north China, indicating the combined influence of ocean-source and inland water vapor. The slope of LMWL in dry season was obviously lower than that in wet season, revealing more intense sub-cloud secondary evaporation. The effect of temperature and precipitation was not significant in both seasons. Meteorological variables had greater influence on precipitation isotopes in wet season. D-excess had greater fluctuation during the dry season, reflecting more complex water vapor sources, which resulted in the influence of meteorological factors being masked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous circulation indices have been applied in practical climate services focused on regional precipitation. It is beneficial to identify the most influential or decisive indices, but this is difficult with conventional correlation analyses because of the underlying nonlinear mechanisms for precipitation. This paper demonstrates a set of the most influential indices for July–August precipitation in North China, based on the recursive random forest (RRF) method. These decisive circulation indices include the Polar–Eurasia teleconnection, North African subtropical high ridge position, India–Burma trough, Antarctic Oscillation, Northern Hemisphere polar vortex central latitude, North Atlantic Oscillation, and western Pacific subtropical high northern boundary position. Some of these factors have been recognized as directly influential to the regional precipitation, for example, those of the northwestern Pacific subtropical high; however, some are not easily understood. Decision tree (DT) models using these indices were developed to facilitate composite analyses to explain the RRF results. Taking one of the most interesting DT rules as an example, when the North African subtropical high ridge position is sufficiently far south, an anomalous anticyclone occurs in the upstream and an anomalous cyclone in the downstream of North China. This is unfavorable for northward moisture transport in eastern China and hence causes less precipitation in North China than climatology. The present results are not only helpful for improving diagnostic models of regional precipitation, but also enlightening for exploring how global climate change could impact a region by modulating large-scale circulation patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we evaluate a 48‐member multiphysics ensemble using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the JJA extreme precipitation and temperature in 2003 over the CORDEX‐EA‐II domain. The simulated precipitation and temperature are reasonable in the subregions controlled by a large‐scale circulation, yet the biases for both precipitation and temperature are evident over the subregions where the effects of mesoscale processes are important. The performance of various combinations of WRF physical schemes for simulating the JJA precipitation is dependent on the region. Meanwhile, the cumulus and microphysical schemes have substantial influences on the simulation of precipitation, and the land surface models and cumulus schemes play crucial roles in the surface temperature. Our analysis shows that the combination of Noah for the land surface process, Lin for the microphysics, G3D for the cumulus parameterization, and CAM for the radiation scheme can provide the most reliable reproduction of both precipitation and temperature extremes over China. Ensemble analysis shows that the simulated climate extremes are usually accompanied by a large ensemble spread, implying sensitivities to the model physical processes in some subregions. The simulated wind fields at low‐to‐middle atmospheric levels display responses to the options of the land surface models and cumulus schemes. The essential impact of the land–atmospheric interaction on simulating the extremes can be largely attributed to the active convective processes. WRF has difficulties in reproducing the observed temporal evolution of the rainfall process, which consists of continuous large rainfall episodes in the observation data set during the simulation period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme rainstorms have important socioeconomic consequences, but understanding their fine spatial structures and temporal evolution still remains challenging. In order to achieve this, in view of an evolutionary property of rainstorms, this paper designs a process-oriented algorithm for identifying and tracking rainstorms, named PoAIR. PoAIR uses time-series of raster datasets and consists of three steps. The first step combines an accumulated rainfall time-series and spatial connectivity to identify rainstorm objects at each time snapshot. Secondly, PoAIR adopts the geometrical features of eccentricity, rectangularity, roundness, and shape index, as well as the thematic feature of the mean rainstorm intensity, to match the same rainstorm objects in successive snapshots, and then tracks the same rainstorm objects during a rainstorm evolution sequence. In the third step, an evolutionary property of a rainstorm sequence is used to extrapolate its spatial location and geometrical features at the next time snapshot and reconstructs a rainstorm process by linking rainstorm sequences with an area-overlapping threshold. Experiments on simulated datasets demonstrate that PoAIR performs better than the Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting algorithm (TITAN) in both rainfall tracking and identifying the splitting, merging, and merging-splitting of rainstorm objects. Additionally, applications of PoAIR to Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM/IMERG) final products covering mainland China show that PoAIR can effectively track rainstorm objects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper examined the teleconnections between two huge Asian summer monsoon components (South and East Asia) during three time slices in future: near-(2010–2039), mid-(2040–2069) and far-(2070–2100) futures under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For this purpose, a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model is used and integrated at 40 km horizontal resolution. To get more insight into the relationships between the two Asian monsoon components, we have studied the spatial displaying correlation coefficients (CCs) pattern of precipitation over the entire Asian monsoon region with that of South Asia and three regions of East Asia (North China, Korea–Japan and Southern China) separately during the same three time slices. The possible factors responsible for these teleconnections are explored by using mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind fields at 850 hPa. The CC pattern of precipitation over South Asia shows an in-phase relationship with North China and an out-of-phase relationship with Korea–Japan, while precipitation variations over Korea–Japan and Southern China exhibit an out-of-phase relationship with South Asia. The CCs analysis between the two Asian blocks during different time slices shows the strongest CCs during the near and far future with the RCP8.5 scenario. The CC pattern of precipitation over Korea–Japan and Southern China with the wind (at 850 hPa) and MSLP fields indicate that the major parts of the moisture over Korea–Japan gets transported from the west Pacific along the western limb of NPSH, while the moisture over Southern China comes from the Bay of Bengal and South China Seas for good monsoon activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a new Two Stage Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming (TS-BSDP) model for real time operation of cascaded hydropower systems to handle varying uncertainty of inflow forecasts from Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts. In this model, the inflow forecasts are considered as having increasing uncertainty with extending lead time, thus the forecast horizon is divided into two periods: the inflows in the first period are assumed to be accurate, and the inflows in the second period assumed to be of high uncertainty. Two operation strategies are developed to derive hydropower operation policies for the first and the entire forecast horizon using TS-BSDP. In this paper, the newly developed model is tested on China's Hun River cascade hydropower system and is compared with three popular stochastic dynamic programming models. Comparative results show that the TS-BSDP model exhibits significantly improved system performance in terms of power generation and system reliability due to its explicit and effective utilization of varying degrees of inflow forecast uncertainty. The results also show that the decision strategies should be determined considering the magnitude of uncertainty in inflow forecasts. Further, this study confirms the previous finding that the benefit in hydropower generation gained from the use of a longer horizon of inflow forecasts is diminished due to higher uncertainty and further reveals that the benefit reduction can be substantially mitigated through explicit consideration of varying magnitudes of forecast uncertainties in the decision-making process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land-use change is widely considered to be a major factor affecting soil carbon (C) sequestration (ΔCs). This paper studied changes to soil C stocks (Cs) following the conversion of farmland to forest, shrub and grassland across the key area for implementing China's "Grain for Green" — the Loess Plateau. The results are based on a synthesis of 44 recent publications (including 424 observations at 70 sites) which has allowed us to further refine our understanding of the mechanisms driving the increase in Cs following farmland conversion. This synthesis suggests that the ΔCs potential of the Loess Plateau could reach 0.59 Tg yr-1 based on an estimated annual average ΔCs rate of 0.29 Mg ha-1 yr-1. In the region's different rainfall zones both the main contributing factors and Cs dynamics varied. Across the entire Loess Plateau, Cs showed first an increasing (<5 yr) then a decreasing (6-10 yr) tendency only to increase (>10 yr) yet again. In addition, the ΔCs rates depended primarily on restoration age. This synthesis demonstrates that both the initial s Cs and the average annual temperature have a significant effect on ΔCs while the effect of land-use conversion type, rainfall zone, and average annual precipitation were minimal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on hydrological and climatic data covering the period from 1961 to 2008, this paper studies the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the Ebinur Lake Catchment. The results show that the annual runoff of three rivers in Ebinur Lake Catchment exhibited different change trends. Specifically, in Jinghe River and Kuytun River exhibited a slightly increasing trend, but an adverse trend in Bortala River, and the variation trend has been the most dramatic since the mid-1990s. The observed variation in the runoff was resulted from the elevated alpine precipitation, rather than rising temperature, and that precipitation is a major factor for runoff generation. The runoff CAR model proposed by this paper can be used to predict the annual runoff in three rivers, and demonstrated annual runoff in Bortala River and Jinghe River will display an increased trend, while a less decreasing trend in Kuytun River under the climate change scenarios of warm-humid variation. In addition, the exploitation of the area of cultivated land led to more water resources consumption, primarily for agriculture irrigation, is the cause of the persistently ecoenvironment degradation, which have reached in a critical state thus, a more pressing concern is the development a scientifically reasonable and administratively practical water resource management scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is introduced to analyze the input-output efficiency of energy consumption and economic indicators in Beijing city under the influence of short-term climatic factors. Total energy consumption, fixed asset investment, average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, average wind velocity and the average pressure being employed as the input variables, gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita disposable income being employed as the output variables, effective technology and the validity of the scale of DEA of 31 decision-making units ( DMUs) under the influence of the short-term climatic factors are analyzed, and the inefficient DMUs are improved. Empirical analysis shows that both energy consumption and economic growth are sensitive to short-term climate condition, and the reasonable employing of extreme climatic conditions is a question worthy of consideration. This study provides effective basis for the scientific and reasonable arrangement of Beijing city's short-term climatic resources and energy-economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our early work (Wang and Wang in J Clim 26:1322-1338, ) separates El Niño Modoki events into El Niño Modoki I and II because they show different impacts on rainfall in southern China and typhoon landfall activity. The warm SST anomalies originate in the equatorial central Pacific and subtropical northeastern Pacific for El Niño Modoki I and II, respectively. El Niño Modoki I features a symmetric SST anomaly distribution about the equator with the maximum warming in the equatorial central Pacific, whereas El Niño Modoki II shows an asymmetric distribution with the warm SST anomalies extending from the northeastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific. The present paper investigates the influence of the various groups of El Niño events on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Similar to canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki I is associated with a weakening of the Walker circulation in the Indo-Pacific region which decreases precipitation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and maritime continent and thus results in the surface easterly wind anomalies off Java-Sumatra. Under the Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies induce cold SST anomalies off Java- Sumatra, and thus a positive IOD tends to occur in the Indian Ocean during canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki I. However, El Niño Modoki II has an opposite impact on the Walker circulation, resulting in more precipitation and surface westerly wind anomalies off Java-Sumatra. Thus, El Niño Modoki II is favorable for the onset and development of a negative IOD on the frame of the Bjerknes feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A rainfall threshold for landslide occurrence at a national scale in China has rarely been developed in the early warning system for landslides. Based on 771 landslide events that occurred in China during 1998–2017, four groups of rainfall thresholds at different quantile levels of the quantile regression for landslide occurrences in China are defined, which include the original rainfall event–duration (E–D) thresholds and normalized (the accumulated rainfall is normalized by mean annual precipitation) (EMAP–D) rainfall thresholds based on the merged rainfall and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) rainfall products, respectively. Each group consists of four sub-thresholds in rainy season and non-rainy season, and both are divided into short duration (<48 h) and long duration (≥48 h). The results show that the slope of the regression line for the thresholds in the events with long durations is larger than that with short durations. In addition, the rainfall thresholds in the non-rainy season are generally lower than those in the rainy season. The E–D thresholds defined in this paper are generally lower than other thresholds in previous studies on a global scale, and a regional or national scale in China. This might be due to there being more landslide events used in this paper, as well as the combined effects of special geological environment, climate condition and human activities in China. Compared with the previous landslide model, the positive rates of the rainfall thresholds for landslides have increased by 16%–20%, 10%–17% and 20%–38% in the whole year, rainy season and non-rainy season, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drought is the most widespread and insidious natural hazard, presenting serious challenges to ecosystems and human society. The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been developed to identify the regional spatiotemporal characteristics of drought conditions from 1960 to 2016, revealing the variability in drought characteristics across Southwest China. Daily data from142 meteorological stations across the region were used to calculate the daily SPEI at the annual and seasonal time scale. The Mann-Kendall test and the trend statistics were then applied to quantify the significance of drought trends, with the following results. 1) The regionally averaged intensity and duration of all-drought and severe drought showed increasing trends, while the intensity and duration of extreme drought exhibited decreasing trends. 2) Mixed (increasing/decreasing) trends were detected, in terms of intensity and duration, in the three types of drought events. In general, no evidence of significant trends (P < 0.05) was detected in the drought intensity and duration over the last 55 years at the annual timescale. Seasonally, spring was characterized by a severe drought trend for all drought and severe drought conditions, while extreme drought events in spring and summer were very severe. All drought intensities and durations showed an increasing trend across most regions, except in the northwestern parts of Sichuan Province. However, the areal extent of regions suffering increasing trends in severe and extreme drought became relatively smaller. 3) We identified the following drought hotspots: Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region from the 1960s to the 1990s, respectively. Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and Guizhou Province in the 1970s and 1980s, and Yunnan Province in the 2000s. Finally, this paper can benefit operational drought characterization with a day-to-day drought monitoring index, enabling a more risk-based drought management strategy in the context of global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Earth System Model version 3 (NESM v3) has been developed, aiming to provide a numerical modeling platform for cross-disciplinary Earth system studies, project future Earth climate and environment changes, and conduct subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. While the previous model version NESM v1 simulates the internal modes of climate variability well, it has no vegetation dynamics and suffers considerable radiative energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere and surface, resulting in large biases in the global mean surface air temperature, which limits its utility to simulate past and project future climate changes. The NESM v3 has upgraded atmospheric and land surface model components and improved physical parameterization and conservation of coupling variables. Here we describe the new version's basic features and how the major improvements were made. We demonstrate the v3 model's fidelity and suitability to address global climate variability and change issues. The 500-year preindustrial (PI) experiment shows negligible trends in the net heat flux at the top of atmosphere and the Earth surface. Consistently, the simulated global mean surface air temperature, land surface temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST) are all in a quasi-equilibrium state. The conservation of global water is demonstrated by the stable evolution of the global mean precipitation, sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea water salinity. The sea ice extents (SIEs), as a major indication of highlatitude climate, also maintain a balanced state. The simulated spatial patterns of the energy states, SST, precipitation, and SSS fields are realistic, but the model suffers from a cold bias in the North Atlantic, a warm bias in the Southern Ocean, and associated deficient Antarctic sea ice area, as well as a delicate sign of the double ITCZ syndrome. The estimated radiative forcing of quadrupling carbon dioxide is about 7.24Wm-2, yielding a climate sensitivity feedback parameter of -0:98Wm-2 K-1, and the equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3.69 K. The transient climate response from the 1%yr-1 CO2 (1pctCO2) increase experiment is 2.16 K. The model's performance on internal modes and responses to external forcing during the historical period will be documented in an accompanying paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A better understanding of the runoff variations contributes to a better utilization of water resources and water conservancy planning. In this paper, we analyzed the runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) including the spatiotemporal characteristics of intra-annual variation, the trend, the mutation point, and the period of annual runoff using various statistical methods. We also investigated how changes in the precipitation and temperature could impact on runoff. We found that the intra-annual runoff shows a decreasing trend from 1954 to 2008 and from upper stream to lower stream. On the annual runoff sequence, the upstream runoff has a high consistency and shows an increasing diversity from upper stream to lower stream. The mutation points of the annual runoff in the YRB are years 1961 and 2004. Annual runoff presents multitime scales for dry and abundance changes. Hurst values show that the runoffs at the main control stations all have Hurst phenomenon (the persistence of annual runoff). The sensitivity analyses of runoff variation to precipitation and temperature were also conducted. Our results show that the response of runoff to precipitation is more sensitive than that to temperature. The response of runoff to temperature is only one-third of the response to precipitation. A decrease in temperature may offset the impact of decreasing rainfall on runoff, while an increase in both rainfall and temperature leads to strongest runoff variations in the YRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of initial state variables on flood forecasting accuracy by using conceptual hydrological models is analyzed in this paper and a novel flood forecasting method based on correction of initial state variables is proposed. The new method is abbreviated as ISVC (Initial State Variable Correction). The ISVC takes the residual between the measured and forecasted flows during the initial period of the flood event as the objective function, and it uses a particle swarm optimization algorithm to correct the initial state variables, which are then used to drive the flood forecasting model. The historical flood events of 11 watersheds in south China are forecasted and verified, and important issues concerning the ISVC application are then discussed. The study results show that the ISVC is effective and applicable in flood forecasting tasks. It can significantly improve the flood forecasting accuracy in most cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at regional and local scale, especially in the south of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the mineralization process and the ore-forming setting of the Kantian fluorite deposit in South China through the zircon U-Pb chronology, quartz Rb-Sr dating, whole rock geochemistry, H-O isotope and fluid inclusions. A mineralization model for the Kantian fluorite deposit is proposed as follows: The subduction of the Pacific plate during the late mid-Jurassic and late Jurassic led to the formation of several fault zones. As the subduction gradually decelerated and eventually ceased, continental extension and lithosphere thinning occurred, accompanied by upwelling of the asthenosphere. This asthenosphere upwelling facilitated melting of the lithospheric mantle, resulting in the ascent of magma into the lower crust. Consequently, the intrusion of magma into the lower crust caused substantial heat, triggering partial melting of the lower crust. The molten material then ascended along faults, generating a significant quantity of granites. During the Early Cretaceous period, the Yanshan cycle witnessed another notable phase of magmatic activity. The residual magmatic hydrothermal fluid from this period served as a source of heating, while the pre-existing fault structures provided favorable pathways and storage space. Atmospheric precipitation infiltrated into the depth along these faults, and the deep-seated residual magmatic hydrothermal fluid heated the infiltrated atmospheric water, inducing cyclic upwelling. The upward migration of hydrothermal fluid continuously extracted Ca and F elements from the granites. Ongoing interaction between the fluid and the surrounding rocks led to changes in pH, coupled with alterations in temperature and pressure, ultimately resulting in the precipitation of fluorite with associated alteration zones in the surrounding rocks. [Display omitted] • Ca and F element in the fluorite were derived through the surrounding rocks. • The ore-forming fluids belong to the NaCl-H 2 O system and exhibit characteristics of medium–low temperature, low salinity, and low density, and were derived from meteoric water. • The intrusion age of surrounding rock in Kantian fluorite deposit was 159.4 ± 2.2 Ma, and the ore-forming of fluorite was 135.6 ± 0.7 Ma. • The tectonic setting responsible for the diagenesis and mineralization processes is believed to be an intracontinental stretching environment associated with the subduction of the Pacific plate. The Yanshanian events have led to the development of South China as a unique granite province globally. Within South Jiangxi, numerous metallic and non-metallic deposits have a close association with Mesozoic granite formations. The Kantian fluorite deposit, a newly discovered non-metallic deposit in southern Jiangxi Province, is one such deposit that is linked to Mesozoic granites. The orebody at the Kantian fluorite deposit is identified as occurring in veined structures within the silicification fracture zone of Mesozoic granites, with strict control exerted by fault systems. Fluorite ore can be classified into two categories based on the amount of quartz and fluorite. The first category is the fluorite quartz type, which has a higher amount of quartz than fluorite. The second category is quartz fluorite type, which has more fluorite than quartz. Among these two categories, the quartz fluorite type is precipitated during the primary mineralization stage. Through the analysis of fluid inclusions within the fluorite, it was determined that the homogenization temperature is relatively low, ranging from 133 to 236℃. The fluid inclusions also display low salinity (0.18–3.39 wt% NaCl eqv.) and low density (0.75–0.96 g/cm3). Laser Raman spectroscopy revealed that the primary components of the fluid inclusions are H 2 O, with minor C 3 H 6. Isotope analysis indicated δD VSMOW values of fluorite ranging from −61.9 ‰ to −54.8 ‰ (average −59.8 ‰), while δ18O VSMOW values varied from 1.3 ‰ to 3.1 ‰ (average 2.0 ‰). This study presents chronological, petrological and geochemical data that suggest several processes. The metallogenic age is 135.6 ± 0.7 Ma. The mineralizing fluids were identified to the NaCl-H 2 O system, with heated meteoric water identified as the primary source; The ore-forming materials originated from the granite, and water–rock interactions are proposed as the primary mechanism for fluorite precipitation. Based on a tectonic setting characterized by stretching, which is closely linked to the subduction of the Pacific plate, we proposed a model for the Kantian fluorite deposit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consecutive dry days (CDDs) can serve as an effective measure of extreme precipitation and seasonal droughts. Using daily rain gauge data from 718 stations in China for the years 1961-2012, this paper documents the spatial and temporal characteristics of CDDs in the cold season (November to March) and the warm season (April to October). The results show that the long-term linear trends in CDDs have significant regional and seasonal differences. In the cold season, 57 % of the stations record decreases in CDDs, whereas in the warm season, 67 % of the stations record increasing trends. Applying the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) to CDDs in selected regions, we found that 3-year oscillations account for most of the variance in CDDs, and this interannual variability is more pronounced in the cold season than in the warm season. Particularly in South China, CDDs in the cold season are most affected by oscillation of about a 3.3-year period. The decadal oscillations in CDDs over North China and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River show larger variance than do other regions. Over North China, decadal variations in CDDs in both seasons are similar, with high phases during the 1990s and greater amplitude during the last 20 years, whereas over middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River, the amplitudes of decadal oscillations in CDDs decreased since the 1990s in both seasons. In terms of secular trends, significant increases in CDDs over Southwest China in the cold season and South China in the warm season are noteworthy as they contribute largely to CDD variance and experience sharper slopes in recent years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]