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This research utilizes the Long-Term Pavement Performance database, focusing on devel-oping a predictive model for flexible pavement performance in the Southern United States. Analyzing 367 pavement sections, this study investigates crucial factors influencing asphaltic concrete (AC) pavement deterioration, such as structural and material components, air voids, compaction density, temperature at laydown, traffic load, precipitation, and freeze–thaw cycles. The objective of this study is to develop a predictive machine learning model for AC pavement wheel path cracking (WpCrAr) and the age at which cracking initiates (WpCrAr) as performance indicators. This study thoroughly investigated three ensemble machine learning models, including random forest, extremely randomized trees (ETR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). It was observed that XGBoost, optimized using Bayesian methods, emerged as the most effective among the evaluated models, demonstrating good predictive accuracy, with an R2 of 0.79 for WpCrAr and 0.92 for AgeCrack and mean absolute errors of 1.07 and 0.74, respectively. The most important features influencing crack initiation and progression were identified, including equivalent single axle load (ESAL), pavement age, number of layers, precipitation, and freeze–thaw cycles. This paper also showed the impact of pavement material combinations for base and subgrade layers on the delay of crack initiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the market for medium- and heavy-duty battery-electric vehicles (MHD EVs) is still nascent, a growing number of these vehicles are being deployed across the U.S. This study used over 2.3 million miles of operational data from multiple types of MHD EVs across various regions and operating conditions to address knowledge gaps in total cost of ownership and operational range. First, real-world energy cost savings were determined: MHD fleets should experience energy cost savings each year from 2021 to 2035, regardless of vehicle platform, with the greatest savings seen in transit buses (up to USD 4459 annually) and HD trucks (up to USD 3284 annually). Second, to help fleets across various geographies throughout the U.S. assess the suitability of EVs for their year-round operating needs, operational range was modeled using the XGBoost algorithm (R2: 70%) given 22 input features relevant to vehicle efficiency. Finally, this paper recommends (1) that MHD fleets apply energy-saving practices to minimize the impacts of cold temperatures and high congestion levels on vehicle efficiency and range, and (2) that local hauling fleets select trucks with a nominal range nearly double the expected maximum daily range to account for range losses under local, urban driving conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 3D body scan technology has recently innovated the way of measuring human bodies and generated a large volume of body measurements. However, one inherent issue that plagues the use of the resultant database is the missing data usually caused by using automatic data extractions from the 3D body scans. Tedious extra efforts have to be made to manually fill the missing data for various applications. To tackle this problem, this paper proposes a machine learning (ML)-based approach for 3D body measurement estimation while considering the measurement (feature) importance. The proposed approach selects the most critical features to reduce the algorithm input and to improve the ML method performance. In addition, a Bayesian search is further used in fine-tuning the hyperparameters to minimize the mean square error. Two distinct ML methods, i.e., Random Forest and XGBoost, are used and tested on a real-world dataset that contains 3D body scans of 212 participants in the Kansas-Missouri area of the United States. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed methods with roughly 3% of Mean Absolute Percentage Errors in estimating the missing data. The two ML methods with the proposed hybrid feature selection and the Baysian search are comprehensively compared. The comparative results suggest that the Random Forest method performs better than the XGBoost counterpart in filling missing 3D body measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resource managers require accurate estimates of the 7-day, 10-year low flow (7Q10) of streams for many reasons, including protecting aquatic species, designing wastewater treatment plants, and calculating municipal water availability. StreamStats, a publicly available web application developed by the United States Geologic Survey that is commonly used by resource managers for estimating the 7Q10 in states where it is available, utilizes state-by-state, locally calibrated regression equations for estimation. This paper expands StreamStats' methodology and improves 7Q10 estimation by developing a more regionally applicable and generalized methodology for 7Q10 estimation. In addition to classical methodologies, namely multiple linear regression (MLR) and multiple linear regression in log space (LTLR), three promising machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF) decision trees, neural networks (NN), and generalized additive models (GAM), are tested to determine if more advanced statistical methods offer improved estimation. For illustrative purposes, this methodology is applied to and verified for the full range of unimpaired, gaged basins in both the northeast and mid-Atlantic hydrologic regions of the United States (with basin sizes ranging from 2–1419 mi2) using leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV). Pearson's correlation coefficient (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) are used to evaluate the performance of each method. Results suggest that each method provides varying results based on basin size, with RF displaying the smallest average RMSE (5.85) across all ranges of basin sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characterizing the electric energy curve can improve the energy efficiency of existing buildings without any structural change and is the basis for controlling and optimizing building performance. Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques show much potential due to their accuracy and malleability in the field of pattern recognition, and using these models it is possible to adjust the building services in real time. Thus, the objective of this paper is to determine the AI technique that best forecasts electrical loads. The suggested techniques are random forest (RF), support vector regression (SVR), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multilayer perceptron (MLP), long short-term memory (LSTM), and temporal convolutional network (Conv-1D). The conducted research applies a methodology that considers the bias and variance of the models, enhancing the robustness of the most suitable AI techniques for modeling and forecasting the electricity consumption in buildings. These techniques are evaluated in a single-family dwelling located in the United States. The performance comparison is obtained by analyzing their bias and variance by using a 10-fold cross-validation technique. By means of the evaluation of the models in different sets, i.e., validation and test sets, their capacity to reproduce the results and the ability to properly forecast on future occasions is also evaluated. The results show that the model with less dispersion, both in the validation set and test set, is LSTM. It presents errors of −0.02% of nMBE and 2.76% of nRMSE in the validation set and −0.54% of nMBE and 4.74% of nRMSE in the test set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyzed a dataset of over 2000 crypto-assets to assess their credit risk by computing their probability of death using the daily range. Unlike conventional low-frequency volatility models that only utilize close-to-close prices, the daily range incorporates all the information provided in traditional daily datasets, including the open-high-low-close (OHLC) prices for each asset. We evaluated the accuracy of the probability of death estimated with the daily range against various forecasting models, including credit scoring models, machine learning models, and time-series-based models. Our study considered different definitions of "dead coins" and various forecasting horizons. Our results indicate that credit scoring models and machine learning methods incorporating lagged trading volumes and online searches were the best models for short-term horizons up to 30 days. Conversely, time-series models using the daily range were more appropriate for longer term forecasts, up to one year. Additionally, our analysis revealed that the models using the daily range signaled, far in advance, the weakened credit position of the crypto derivatives trading platform FTX, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States on 11 November 2022. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United States has had more mass shooting incidents than any other country. It is reported that more than 1800 incidents occurred in the US during the past three years. Mass shooters often display warning signs before committing crimes, such as childhood traumas, domestic violence, firearms access, and aggressive social media posts. With the advancement of machine learning (ML), it is more possible than ever to predict mass shootings before they occur by studying the behavior of prospective mass shooters. This paper presents an ML-based system that uses various unsupervised ML models to warn about a balanced progressive tendency of a person to commit a mass shooting. Our system used two models, namely local outlier factor and K-means clustering, to learn both the psychological factors and social media activities of previous shooters to provide a probabilistic similarity of a new observation to an existing shooter. The developed system can show the similarity between a new record for a prospective shooter and one or more records from our dataset via a GUI-friendly interface. It enables users to select some social and criminal observations about the prospective shooter. Then, the webpage creates a new record, classifies it, and displays the similarity results. Furthermore, we developed a feed-in module, which allows new observations to be added to our dataset and retrains the ML models. Finally, we evaluated our system using various performance metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Childhood obesity is a public health concern in the United States. Consequences of childhood obesity include metabolic disease and heart, lung, kidney, and other health-related comorbidities. Therefore, the early determination of obesity risk is needed and predicting the trend of a child's body mass index (BMI) at an early age is crucial. Early identification of obesity can lead to early prevention. Multiple methods have been tested and evaluated to assess obesity trends in children. Available growth charts help determine a child's current obesity level but do not predict future obesity risk. The present methods of predicting obesity include regression analysis and machine learning-based classifications and risk factor (threshold)-based categorizations based on specific criteria. All the present techniques, especially current machine learning-based methods, require longitudinal data and information on a large number of variables related to a child's growth (e.g., socioeconomic, family-related factors) in order to predict future obesity-risk. In this paper, we propose three different techniques for three different scenarios to predict childhood obesity based on machine learning approaches and apply them to real data. Our proposed methods predict obesity for children at five years of age using the following three data sets: (1) a single well-child visit, (2) multiple well-child visits under the age of two, and (3) multiple random well-child visits under the age of five. Our models are especially important for situations where only the current patient information is available rather than having multiple data points from regular spaced well-child visits. Our models predict obesity using basic information such as birth BMI, gestational age, BMI measures from well-child visits, and gender. Our models can predict a child's obesity category (normal, overweight, or obese) at five years of age with an accuracy of 89%, 77%, and 89%, for the three application scenarios, respectively. Therefore, our proposed models can assist healthcare professionals by acting as a decision support tool to aid in predicting childhood obesity early in order to reduce obesity-related complications, and in turn, improve healthcare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a systematic approach for the seismic design of 2D concrete dams. As opposed to the traditional design method which does not optimize the dam cross-section, the proposed design engine offers the optimal one based on the predefined constraints. A large database of about 24,000 simulations is generated based on transient simulation of the dam-foundation-water system. The database includes over 150 various dam shapes, water levels, and material properties, as well as 160 different ground motion records. Automated machine learning (AutoML) is used to generate a surrogate model of dam response as a function of thirty variables. The accuracy of single- and multi-output surrogate models are compared, and the efficiency of the design engine for various settings is discussed. Next, a simple yet robust inverse analysis method is coupled with a multi-output surrogate model to design a hypothetical dam in the United States. Having the seismic hazard scenario, geological survey data, and also the concrete mix, the dam shape is estimated and compared to direct finite element simulation. The results show promising accuracy from the AutoML regression. Furthermore, the design shape from the inverse analysis is in good agreement with the design objectives and also the finite element simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, no method utilizing satellite imagery exists for detailing the locations and functions of critical infrastructure across the United States, making response to natural disasters and other events challenging due to complex infrastructural interdependencies. This paper presents a repeatable, transferable, and explainable method for critical infrastructure analysis and implementation of a robust model for critical infrastructure detection in satellite imagery. This model consists of a DenseNet-161 convolutional neural network, pretrained with the ImageNet database. The model was provided additional training with a custom dataset, containing nine infrastructure classes. The resultant analysis achieved an overall accuracy of 90%, with the highest accuracy for airports (97%), hydroelectric dams (96%), solar farms (94%), substations (91%), potable water tanks (93%), and hospitals (93%). Critical infrastructure types with relatively low accuracy are likely influenced by data commonality between similar infrastructure components for petroleum terminals (86%), water treatment plants (78%), and natural gas generation (78%). Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) was integrated into the overall modeling pipeline to establish trust for users in critical infrastructure applications. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of a convolutional neural network approach for critical infrastructure identification, with higher than 90% accuracy in identifying six of the critical infrastructure facility types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately capturing wind speed fluctuations and quantifying the uncertainties has important implications for energy planning and management. This paper proposes a novel hybrid machine learning model to solve the problem of probabilistic prediction of wind speed. The model couples the light gradient boosting machine (LGB) model with the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, where the LGB model can provide high-precision deterministic wind speed prediction results, and the GPR model can provide reliable probabilistic prediction results. The proposed model was applied to predict wind speeds for a real wind farm in the United States. The eight contrasting models are compared in terms of deterministic prediction and probabilistic prediction, respectively. The experimental results show that the LGB-GPR model improves the point forecast accuracy (RMSE) by up to 20.0% and improves the probabilistic forecast reliability (CRPS) by up to 21.5% compared to a single GPR model. This research is of great significance for improving the reliability of wind speed, probabilistic predictions, and the sustainable development of new energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Late-arriving patients have become a prominent concern in several ambulatory care clinics across the globe. Accommodating them could lead to detrimental ramifications such as schedule disruption and increased waiting time for forthcoming patients, which, in turn, could lead to patient dissatisfaction, reduced care quality, and physician burnout. However, rescheduling late arrivals could delay access to care. This paper aims to predict the patient-specific risk of late arrival using machine learning (ML) models. Data from two different ambulatory care facilities are extracted, and a comprehensive list of predictor variables is identified or derived from the electronic medical records. A comparative analysis of four ML algorithms (logistic regression, random forests, gradient boosting machine, and artificial neural networks) that differ in their training mechanism is conducted. The results indicate that ML algorithms can accurately predict patient lateness, but a single model cannot perform best with respect to predictive performance, training time, and interpretability. Prior history of late arrivals, age, and afternoon appointments are identified as critical predictors by all the models. The ML-based approach presented in this research can serve as a decision support tool and could be integrated into the appointment system for effectively managing and mitigating tardy arrivals.

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among individuals aged 5 to 24 in the United States (US). However, the precursors to suicide often do not surface, making suicide prevention challenging. This study aims to develop a machine learning model for predicting suicide ideation (SI), suicide planning (SP), and suicide attempts (SA) among adolescents in the US during the coronavirus pandemic. We used the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey Data. Class imbalance was addressed using the proposed data augmentation method tailored for binary variables, Modified Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique. Five different ML models were trained and compared. SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis was conducted for explainability. The Logistic Regression model, identified as the most effective, showed superior performance across all targets, achieving high scores in recall: 0.82, accuracy: 0.80, and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve: 0.88. Variables such as sad feelings, hopelessness, sexual behavior, and being overweight were noted as the most important predictors. Our model holds promise in helping health policymakers design effective public health interventions. By identifying vulnerable sub-groups within regions, our model can guide the implementation of tailored interventions that facilitate early identification and referral to medical treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Artificial intelligence models represented in machine learning algorithms are promising tools for risk assessment used to guide clinical and other health care decisions. Machine learning algorithms, however, may house biases that propagate stereotypes, inequities, and discrimination that contribute to socioeconomic health care disparities. The biases include those related to some sociodemographic characteristics such as race, ethnicity, gender, age, insurance, and socioeconomic status from the use of erroneous electronic health record data. Additionally, there is concern that training data and algorithmic biases in large language models pose potential drawbacks. These biases affect the lives and livelihoods of a significant percentage of the population in the United States and globally. The social and economic consequences of the associated backlash cannot be underestimated. Here, we outline some of the sociodemographic, training data, and algorithmic biases that undermine sound health care risk assessment and medical decision-making that should be addressed in the health care system. We present a perspective and overview of these biases by gender, race, ethnicity, age, historically marginalized communities, algorithmic bias, biased evaluations, implicit bias, selection/sampling bias, socioeconomic status biases, biased data distributions, cultural biases and insurance status bias, conformation bias, information bias and anchoring biases and make recommendations to improve large language model training data, including de-biasing techniques such as counterfactual role-reversed sentences during knowledge distillation, fine-tuning, prefix attachment at training time, the use of toxicity classifiers, retrieval augmented generation and algorithmic modification to mitigate the biases moving forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heart disease is the leading cause of mortality in the U.S. with approximately 610,000 people dying every year. Effective therapies for many cardiac diseases are lacking, largely due to an incomplete understanding of their genetic basis and underlying molecular mechanisms. Zebrafish (Danio rerio) are an excellent model system for studying heart disease as they enable a forward genetic approach to tackle this unmet medical need. In recent years, our team has been employing electrocardiogram (ECG) as an efficient tool to study the zebrafish heart along with conventional approaches, such as immunohistochemistry, DNA and protein analyses. We have overcome various challenges in the small size and aquatic environment of zebrafish in order to obtain ECG signals with favorable signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and high spatial and temporal resolution. In this paper, we highlight our recent efforts in zebrafish ECG acquisition with a cost-effective simplified microelectrode array (MEA) membrane providing multi-channel recording, a novel multi-chamber apparatus for simultaneous screening, and a LabVIEW program to facilitate recording and processing. We also demonstrate the use of machine learning-based programs to recognize specific ECG patterns, yielding promising results with our current limited amount of zebrafish data. Our solutions hold promise to carry out numerous studies of heart diseases, drug screening, stem cell-based therapy validation, and regenerative medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspections of concrete bridges across the United States represent a significant commitment of resources, given their biannual mandate for many structures. With a notable number of aging bridges, there is an imperative need to enhance the efficiency of these inspections. This study harnessed the power of computer vision to streamline the inspection process. Our experiment examined the efficacy of a state-of-the-art Visual Transformer (ViT) model combined with distinct image enhancement detector algorithms. We benchmarked against a deep learning Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model. These models were applied to over 20,000 high-quality images from the Concrete Images for Classification dataset. Traditional crack detection methods often fall short due to their heavy reliance on time and resources. This research pioneers bridge inspection by integrating ViT with diverse image enhancement detectors, significantly improving concrete crack detection accuracy. Notably, a custom-built CNN achieves over 99% accuracy with substantially lower training time than ViT, making it an efficient solution for enhancing safety and resource conservation in infrastructure management. These advancements enhance safety by enabling reliable detection and timely maintenance, but they also align with Industry 4.0 objectives, automating manual inspections, reducing costs, and advancing technological integration in public infrastructure management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous non-invasive blood pressure (CNBP) monitoring is of the utmost importance in detecting and managing hypertension, a leading cause of death in the United States. Extensive research has delved into pioneering methods for predicting systolic and diastolic blood pressure values by leveraging pulse arrival time (PAT), the time difference between the proximal and distal signal peaks. The most widely employed pairing involves electrocardiography (ECG) and photoplethysmography (PPG). Possessing similar characteristics in terms of measuring blood flow changes, a recently investigated optical signal known as speckleplethysmography (SPG) showed its stability and high signal-to-noise ratio compared with PPG. Thus, SPG is a potential surrogate to pair with ECG for CNBP estimation. The present study aims to unlock the untapped potential of SPG as a signal for non-invasive blood pressure monitoring based on PAT. To ascertain SPG's capabilities, eight subjects were enrolled in multiple recording sessions. A third-party device was employed for ECG and PPG measurements, while a commercial device served as the reference for arterial blood pressure (ABP). SPG measurements were obtained using a prototype smartphone-based system. Following the completion of three scenarios—sitting, walking, and running—the subjects' signals and ABP were recorded to investigate the predictive capacity of systolic blood pressure. The collected data were processed and prepared for machine learning models, including support vector regression and decision tree regression. The models' effectiveness was evaluated using root-mean-square error and mean absolute percentage error. In most instances, predictions utilizing P A T S P G exhibited comparable or superior performance to P A T P P G (i.e., SPG Rest ± 12.4 mmHg vs. PPG Rest ± 13.7 mmHg for RSME, and SPG 8% vs. PPG 9% for MAPE). Furthermore, incorporating an additional feature, namely the previous SBP value, resulted in reduced prediction errors for both signals in multiple model configurations (i.e., SPG Rest ± 12.4 mmHg to ±3.7 mmHg for RSME, and SPG Rest 8% to 3% for MAPE). These preliminary tests of SPG underscore the remarkable potential of this novel signal in PAT-based blood pressure predictions. Subsequent studies involving a larger cohort of test subjects and advancements in the SPG acquisition system hold promise for further improving the effectiveness of this newly explored signal in blood pressure monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past century, local-scale warming caused by a strengthening urban heat island effect has brought inevitable systematic bias to observational data from surface weather stations located in or near urban areas. In this study, the land use situation around U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations was used as a reference for rural station selection; stations with similar environmental conditions in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) were selected as reference stations using a machine learning method, and then the maximum surface air temperature (Tmax) series, minimum surface air temperature (Tmin) series and mean surface air temperature (Tmean) series of rural stations during 1921–2020 were compared with those for all nearby stations (including both rural and urban stations) to evaluate urbanization effects in the USHCN observation data series of the contiguous United States, which can be regarded as urbanization bias contained in the latest homogenized USHCN observation data. The results showed that the urbanization effect on the Tmean trend of USHCN stations is 0.002 °C dec−1, and the urbanization contribution is 35%, indicating that urbanization around USHCN stations has led to at least one-third of the overall warming recorded at USHCN stations over the last one hundred years. The urbanization effects on Tmax and Tmin trends of USHCN stations are −0.015 °C dec−1 and 0.013 °C dec−1, respectively, and the urbanization contribution for Tmin is 34%. These results have significance for understanding the systematic bias in USHCN temperature data, and they provide a reference for subsequent studies on data correction and climate change monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substance abuse or drug dependence is a prevalent phenomenon, and is on the rise in United States. Important contributing factors for the prevalence are the addictive nature of certain medicinal/prescriptive drugs, individual dispositions (biological, physiological, and psychological), and other external influences (e.g., pharmaceutical advertising campaigns). However, currently there is no comprehensive computational or machine learning framework that allows systematic studies of substance abuse and its factors with majority of the works using subjective surveys questionnaires and focusing on classification techniques. Lacking standardized methods and/or measures to prescribe medication and to study substance abuse makes it difficult to advance through collective research efforts. Thus, in this paper, we propose to test the feasibility of developing a, objective substance effect index, SEI, that can measure the tendency of an individual towards substance abuse. To that end, we combine the benefits of Electronics Medical Records (EMR) with machine learning technology by defining SEI as a function of EMR data and using logistics regression to obtain a closed form expression for SEI. We conduct various evaluations to validate the proposed model, and the results show that further work towards the development of SEI will not only provide researchers with standard computational measure for substance abuse, but may also allow them to study certain attribute interactions to gain further insights into substance abuse tendencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) presents a transformative shift in transportation, promising enhanced safety and economic efficiency. However, a fragmented legislative landscape across the United States hampers AV deployment. This fragmentation creates significant challenges for AV manufacturers and stakeholders. This research contributes by employing advanced machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze state data, aiming to identify factors associated with the likelihood of passing AV-friendly legislation, particularly regarding the requirement for human backup drivers. The findings reveal a nuanced interplay of socio-economic, political, demographic, and safety-related factors influencing the nature of AV legislation. Key variables such as democratic electoral college votes per capita, port tons per capita, population density, road fatalities per capita, and transit agency needs significantly impact legislative outcomes. These insights suggest that a combination of political, economic, and safety considerations shape AV legislation, transcending traditional partisan divides. These findings offer a strategic perspective for developing a harmonized regulatory approach, potentially at the federal level, to foster a conducive environment for AV development and deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising severity and frequency of wildfires in recent years in the United States have raised numerous concerns regarding the improvement in wildfire emergency response management and decision-making systems, which require operational high temporal and spatial resolution monitoring capabilities. Satellites are one of the tools that can be used for wildfire monitoring. However, none of the currently available satellite systems provide both high temporal and spatial resolution. For example, GOES-17 geostationary satellite fire products have high temporal (1–5 min) but low spatial resolution (≥2 km), and VIIRS polar orbiter satellite fire products have low temporal (~12 h) but high spatial resolution (375 m). This work aims to leverage currently available satellite data sources, such as GOES and VIIRS, along with deep learning (DL) advances to achieve an operational high-resolution, both spatially and temporarily, wildfire monitoring tool. Specifically, this study considers the problem of increasing the spatial resolution of high temporal but low spatial resolution GOES-17 data products using low temporal but high spatial resolution VIIRS data products. The main idea is using an Autoencoder DL model to learn how to map GOES-17 geostationary low spatial resolution satellite images to VIIRS polar orbiter high spatial resolution satellite images. In this context, several loss functions and DL architectures are implemented and tested to predict both the fire area and the corresponding brightness temperature. These models are trained and tested on wildfire sites from 2019 to 2021 in the western U.S. The results indicate that DL models can improve the spatial resolution of GOES-17 images, leading to images that mimic the spatial resolution of VIIRS images. Combined with GOES-17 higher temporal resolution, the DL model can provide high-resolution near-real-time wildfire monitoring capability as well as semi-continuous wildfire progression maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drug repurposing is a strategy for discovering new applications of existing drugs for use in various diseases. Despite the use of structured networks in drug research, it is still unclear how drugs interact with one another or with genes. Prostate adenocarcinoma is the second leading cause of cancer mortality in the United States, with an estimated incidence of 288,300 new cases and 34,700 deaths in 2023. In our study, we used integrative information from genes, pathways, and drugs for machine learning methods such as clustering, feature selection, and enrichment pathway analysis. We investigated how drugs affect drugs and how drugs affect genes in human pancreatic cancer cell lines that were derived from bone metastases of grade IV prostate cancer. Finally, we identified significant drug interactions within or between clusters, such as estradiol-rosiglitazone, estradiol-diclofenac, troglitazone-rosiglitazone, celecoxib-rofecoxib, celecoxib-diclofenac, and sodium phenylbutyrate-valproic acid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal is the second-largest source for electricity generation in the United States. However, the burning of coal produces dangerous gas emissions, such as carbon dioxide and Green House Gas (GHG) emissions. One alternative to decrease these emissions is biomass co-firing. To establish biomass as a viable option, the optimization of the biomass supply chain (BSC) is essential. Although most of the research conducted has focused on optimization models, the purpose of this paper is to incorporate machine-learning (ML) algorithms into a stochastic Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model to select potential storage depot locations and improve the solution in two ways: by decreasing the total cost of the BSC and the computational burden. We consider the level of moisture and level of ash in the biomass from each parcel location, the average expected biomass yield, and the distance from each parcel to the closest power plant. The training labels (whether a potential depot location is beneficial or not) are obtained through the stochastic MILP model. Multiple ML algorithms are applied to a case study in the northeast area of the United States: Logistic Regression (LR), Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Neural Network. After applying the hybrid methodology combining ML and optimization, it is found that the MLP outperforms the other algorithms in terms of selecting potential depots that decrease the total cost of the BSC and the computational burden of the stochastic MILP model. The LR and the DT also perform well in terms of decreasing total cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil temperature (ST) plays a key role in the processes and functions of almost all ecosystems, and is also an essential parameter for various applications such as agricultural production, geothermal development, and their utilization. Although numerous machine learning models have been used in the prediction of ST, and good results have been obtained, most of the current studies have focused on daily or monthly ST predictions, while hourly ST predictions are scarce. This paper presents a novel scheme for forecasting the hourly ST using weather forecast data. The method considers the hourly ST prediction to be the superposition of two parts, namely, the daily average ST prediction and the ST amplitude (the difference between the hourly ST and the daily average ST) prediction. According to the results of correlation analysis, we selected nine meteorological parameters and combined two temporal parameters as the input vectors for predicting the daily average ST. For the task of predicting the ST amplitude, seven meteorological parameters and one temporal parameter were selected as the inputs. Two submodels were constructed using a deep bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM). For the task of hourly ST prediction at five different soil depths at 30 sites, which are located in 5 common climates in the United States, the results showed the method proposed in this paper performs best at all depths for 30 stations (100% of all) for the root mean square error (RMSE), 27 stations (90% of all) for the mean absolute error (MAE), and 30 stations (100% of all) for the coefficient of determination (R2), respectively. Moreover, the method adopted in this study displays a stronger ST prediction ability than the traditional methods under all climate types involved in the experiment, the hourly ST produced by it can be used as a driving parameter for high-resolution biogeochemical models, land surface models and hydrological models and can provide ideas for an analysis of other time series data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regression algorithms are regularly used for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products. In this context, satellite precipitation and topography data are the predictor variables, and gauged-measured precipitation data are the dependent variables. Alongside this, it is increasingly recognised in many fields that combinations of algorithms through ensemble learning can lead to substantial predictive performance improvements. Still, a sufficient number of ensemble learners for improving the accuracy of satellite precipitation products and their large-scale comparison are currently missing from the literature. In this study, we work towards filling in this specific gap by proposing 11 new ensemble learners in the field and by extensively comparing them. We apply the ensemble learners to monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets that span over a 15-year period and over the entire contiguous United States (CONUS). We also use gauge-measured precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The ensemble learners combine the predictions of six machine learning regression algorithms (base learners), namely the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), random forests (RF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN), and each of them is based on a different combiner. The combiners include the equal-weight combiner, the median combiner, two best learners and seven variants of a sophisticated stacking method. The latter stacks a regression algorithm on top of the base learners to combine their independent predictions. Its seven variants are defined by seven different regression algorithms, specifically the linear regression (LR) algorithm and the six algorithms also used as base learners. The results suggest that sophisticated stacking performs significantly better than the base learners, especially when applied using the LR algorithm. It also beats the simpler combination methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heavy-duty trucks contribute approximately 20% of fuel consumption in the United States of America (USA). The fuel economy of heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) is affected by several real-world parameters like road parameters, driver behavior, weather conditions, and vehicle parameters, etc. Although modern vehicles comply with emissions regulations, potential malfunction of the engine, regular wear and tear, or other factors could affect vehicle performance. Predicting fuel consumption per trip based on dynamic on-road data can help the automotive industry to reduce the cost and time for on-road testing. Data modeling can easily help to diagnose the reason behind fuel consumption with a knowledge of input parameters. In this paper, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to model fuel consumption in modern heavy-duty trucks for predicting the total and instantaneous fuel consumption of a trip based on very few key parameters, such as engine load (%), engine speed (rpm), and vehicle speed (km/h). Instantaneous fuel consumption data can help to predict patterns in fuel consumption for optimized fleet operations. In this work, the data used for modeling was collected at a frequency of 1Hz during on-road testing of modern heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) at the West Virginia University Center for Alternative Fuels Engines and Emissions (WVU CAFEE) using the portable emissions monitoring system (PEMS). The performance of the artificial neural network was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The model was further evaluated with data collected from a vehicle on-road trip. The study shows that artificial neural networks performed slightly better than other machine learning techniques such as linear regression (LR), and random forest (RF), with high R-squared (R2) and lower root mean square error. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existence of water markets establishes water prices, promoting trading of water from low- to high-valued uses. However, market participants can face uncertainty when asking and offering prices because water rights are heterogeneous, resulting in inefficiency of the market. This paper proposes three random forest regression models (RFR) to predict water price in the western United States: a full variable set model and two reduced ones with optimal numbers of variables using a backward variable elimination (BVE) approach. Transactions of 12 semiarid states, from 1987 to 2009, and a dataset containing various predictors, were assembled. Multiple replications of k-fold cross-validation were applied to assess the model performance and their generalizability was tested on unused data. The importance of price influencing factors was then analyzed based on two plausible variable importance rankings. Results show that the RFR models have good predictive power for water price. They outperform a baseline model without leading to overfitting. Also, the higher degree of accuracy of the reduced models is insignificant, reflecting the robustness of RFR to including lower informative variables. This study suggests that, due to its ability to automatically learn from and make predictions on data, RFR-based models can aid water market participants in making more efficient decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Homelessness has been a persistent social concern in the United States. A combination of political and economic events since the 1960s has driven increases in poverty that, by 1991, had surpassed 1928 depression era levels in some accounts. This paper explores how the emerging field of behavioral economics can use machine learning and data science methods to explore preventative responses to homelessness. In this study, machine learning data mining strategies, specifically K-means cluster analysis and later, decision trees, were used to understand how environmental factors and resultant behaviors can contribute to the experience of homelessness. Prevention of the first homeless event is especially important as studies show that if a person has experienced homelessness once, they are 2.6 times more likely to have another homeless episode. Study findings demonstrate that when someone is at risk for not being able to pay utility bills at the same time as they experience challenges with two or more of the other social determinants of health, the individual is statistically significantly more likely to have their first homeless event. Additionally, for men over 50 who are not in the workforce, have a health hardship, and experience two or more other social determinants of health hardships at the same time, the individual has a high statistically significant probability of experiencing homelessness for the first time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings account for 40% of the energy consumption and 31% of the CO2 emissions in the United States. Energy retrofits of existing buildings provide an effective means to reduce building consumption and carbon footprints. A key step in retrofit planning is to predict the effect of various potential retrofits on energy consumption. Decision-makers currently look to simulation-based tools for detailed assessments of a large range of retrofit options. However, simulations often require detailed building characteristic inputs, high expertise, and extensive computational power, presenting challenges for considering portfolios of buildings or evaluating large-scale policy proposals. Data-driven methods offer an alternative approach to retrofit analysis that could be more easily applied to portfolio-wide retrofit plans. However, current applications focus heavily on evaluating past retrofits, providing little decision support for future retrofits. This paper uses data from a portfolio of 550 federal buildings and demonstrates a data-driven approach to generalizing the heterogeneous treatment effect of past retrofits to predict future savings potential for assisting retrofit planning. The main findings include the following: (1) There is high variation in the predicted savings across retrofitted buildings, (2) GSALink, a dashboard tool and fault detection system, commissioning, and HVAC investments had the highest average savings among the six actions analyzed; and (3) by targeting high savers, there is a 110–300 billion Btu improvement potential for the portfolio in site energy savings (the equivalent of 12–32% of the portfolio-total site energy consumption). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern business, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have affected strategy and decision-making positively in the form of predictive modeling. This study aims to use ML and AI to predict arrival flight delays in the United States airport network. Flight delays carry severe social, environmental, and economic impacts. Deploying ML models during the process of operational decision-making can help to reduce the impact of these delays. A literature review and critical appraisal were carried out on previous studies and research relating to flight delay prediction. In the literature review, the datasets used, selected features, selected algorithms, and evaluation tools used in previous studies were analyzed and influenced the decisions made in the methodology for this study. Data for this study comes from two public sets of domestic flight and weather data from 2017. Data are processed and split into training, validation, and testing data. Subsequently, these ML models are evaluated and compared based on performance metrics obtained using the testing data. The predictive model with the best performance (in choosing between logistic regression, random forest, the gradient boosting machine, and feed-forward neural networks) is the gradient boosting machine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since May 2022, over 64,000 Monkeypox cases have been confirmed globally up until September 2022. The United States leads the world in cases, with over 25,000 cases nationally. This recent escalation of the Monkeypox outbreak has become a severe and urgent worldwide public health concern. We aimed to develop an efficient forecasting tool that allows health experts to implement effective prevention policies for Monkeypox and shed light on the case development of diseases that share similar characteristics to Monkeypox. This research utilized five machine learning models, namely, ARIMA, LSTM, Prophet, NeuralProphet, and a stacking model, on the Monkeypox datasets from the CDC official website to forecast the next 7-day trend of Monkeypox cases in the United States. The result showed that NeuralProphet achieved the most optimal performance with a RMSE of 49.27 and R 2 of 0.76. Further, the final trained NeuralProphet was employed to forecast seven days of out-of-sample cases. On the basis of cases, our model demonstrated 95% accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the use of crime data has been widely advocated in the literature, its availability is often limited to large urban cities and isolated databases that tend not to allow for spatial comparisons. This paper presents an efficient machine learning framework capable of predicting spatial crime occurrences, without using past crime as a predictor, and at a relatively high resolution: the U.S. Census Block Group level. The proposed framework is based on an in-depth multidisciplinary literature review allowing the selection of 188 best-fit crime predictors from socio-economic, demographic, spatial, and environmental data. Such data are published periodically for the entire United States. The selection of the appropriate predictive model was made through a comparative study of different machine learning families of algorithms, including generalized linear models, deep learning, and ensemble learning. The gradient boosting model was found to yield the most accurate predictions for violent crimes, property crimes, motor vehicle thefts, vandalism, and the total count of crimes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets of crimes reported in 11 U.S. cities demonstrated that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 73% and 77% when predicting property crimes and violent crimes, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gridded satellite precipitation datasets are useful in hydrological applications as they cover large regions with high density. However, they are not accurate in the sense that they do not agree with ground-based measurements. An established means for improving their accuracy is to correct them by adopting machine learning algorithms. This correction takes the form of a regression problem, in which the ground-based measurements have the role of the dependent variable and the satellite data are the predictor variables, together with topography factors (e.g., elevation). Most studies of this kind involve a limited number of machine learning algorithms and are conducted for a small region and for a limited time period. Thus, the results obtained through them are of local importance and do not provide more general guidance and best practices. To provide results that are generalizable and to contribute to the delivery of best practices, we here compare eight state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms in correcting satellite precipitation data for the entire contiguous United States and for a 15-year period. We use monthly data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) gridded dataset, together with monthly earth-observed precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network monthly database, version 2 (GHCNm). The results suggest that extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and random forests are the most accurate in terms of the squared error scoring function. The remaining algorithms can be ordered as follows, from the best to the worst: Bayesian regularized feed-forward neural networks, multivariate adaptive polynomial splines (poly-MARS), gradient boosting machines (gbm), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), feed-forward neural networks and linear regression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combating mental illnesses such as depression and anxiety has become a global concern. As a result of the necessity for finding effective ways to battle these problems, machine learning approaches have been included in healthcare systems for the diagnosis and probable prediction of the treatment outcomes of mental health conditions. With the growing interest in machine and deep learning methods, analysis of existing work to guide future research directions is necessary. In this study, 33 articles on the diagnosis of schizophrenia, depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anorexia nervosa, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) were retrieved from various search databases using the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA) review methodology. These publications were chosen based on their use of machine learning and deep learning technologies, individually assessed, and their recommended methodologies were then classified into the various disorders included in this study. In addition, the difficulties encountered by the researchers are discussed, and a list of some public datasets is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Merging satellite products and ground-based measurements is often required for obtaining precipitation datasets that simultaneously cover large regions with high density and are more accurate than pure satellite precipitation products. Machine and statistical learning regression algorithms are regularly utilized in this endeavor. At the same time, tree-based ensemble algorithms are adopted in various fields for solving regression problems with high accuracy and low computational costs. Still, information on which tree-based ensemble algorithm to select for correcting satellite precipitation products for the contiguous United States (US) at the daily time scale is missing from the literature. In this study, we worked towards filling this methodological gap by conducting an extensive comparison between three algorithms of the category of interest, specifically between random forests, gradient boosting machines (gbm) and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). We used daily data from the PERSIANN (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks) and the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) gridded datasets. We also used earth-observed precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCNd) database. The experiments referred to the entire contiguous US and additionally included the application of the linear regression algorithm for benchmarking purposes. The results suggest that XGBoost is the best-performing tree-based ensemble algorithm among those compared. Indeed, the mean relative improvements that it provided with respect to linear regression (for the case that the latter algorithm was run with the same predictors as XGBoost) are equal to 52.66%, 56.26% and 64.55% (for three different predictor sets), while the respective values are 37.57%, 53.99% and 54.39% for random forests, and 34.72%, 47.99% and 62.61% for gbm. Lastly, the results suggest that IMERG is more useful than PERSIANN in the context investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Lee–Carter model could be considered as one of the most important mortality prediction models among stochastic models in the field of mortality. With the recent developments of machine learning and deep learning, many studies have applied deep learning approaches to time series mortality rate predictions, but most of them only focus on a comparison between the Long Short-Term Memory and the traditional models. In this study, three different recurrent neural networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory, and Gated Recurrent Unit, are proposed for the task of mortality rate prediction. Different from the standard country level mortality rate comparison, this study compares the three deep learning models and the classic Lee–Carter model on nine divisions' yearly mortality data by gender from 1966 to 2015 in the United States. With the out-of-sample testing, we found that the Gated Recurrent Unit model showed better average MAE and RMSE values than the Lee–Carter model on 72.2% (13/18) and 67.7% (12/18) of the database, respectively, while the same measure for the Long Short-Term Memory model and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory model are 50%/38.9% (MAE/RMSE) and 61.1%/61.1% (MAE/RMSE), respectively. If we consider forecasting accuracy, computing expense, and interpretability, the Lee–Carter model with ARIMA exhibits the best overall performance, but the recurrent neural networks could also be good candidates for mortality forecasting for divisions in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prognosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression has been recognized as a challenging problem due to the massive numbers of cognitive, and pathological features recorded for patients and controls. While there have been many studies investigated the diagnosis of dementia using pathological characteristics, predicting the advancement of the disease using cognitive elements has not been heavily studied particularly using technologies like artificial intelligence and machine learning. This research aims at evaluating items of the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive 13 (ADAS-Cog-13) test to determine key cognitive items that influence the progression of AD. A methodology that consists of machine learning and feature selection (FS) techniques was designed, implemented, and then tested against real data observations (cases and controls) of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) repository with a narrow scope on cognitive items of the ADAS-Cog-13 test. Results obtained by ten-fold cross validation and using dissimilar classification and FS techniques revealed that the decision tree algorithm produced classification models with the best performing results from the cognitive items. For ADAS-Cog-13 test, memory and learning features including word recall, delayed word recall and word recognition were the key items pinpointing to AD advancement. When these three cognitive items are processed excluding demographics by C4.5 algorithm the models derived showed 82.90% accuracy, 87.60% sensitivity and 78.20% specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early childhood is an important development period for establishing healthy physical activity (PA) habits. The objective of this study was to evaluate PA levels in a representative sample of U.S. preschool-aged children. The study sample included 301 participants (149 girls, 3–5 years of age) in the 2012 U.S. National Health and Examination Survey National Youth Fitness Survey. Participants were asked to wear an ActiGraph accelerometer on their wrist for 7 days. A machine learning random forest classification algorithm was applied to accelerometer data to estimate daily time spent in moderate- and vigorous-intensity PA (MVPA; the sum of minutes spent in running, walking, and other moderate- and vigorous-intensity PA) and total PA (the sum of MVPA and light-intensity PA). We estimated that U.S. preschool-aged children engaged in 28 min/day of MVPA and 361 min/day of total PA, on average. MVPA and total PA levels were not significantly different between males and females. This study revealed that U.S. preschool-aged children engage in lower levels of MVPA and higher levels of total PA than the minimum recommended by the World Health Organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the impact that climate change is projected to have on agriculture, it is essential to understand the mechanisms and conditions that drive agricultural land suitability. However, existing literature does not provide sufficient guidance on the best modeling methodology to study crop suitability, and there is even less research on how to evaluate the accuracy of such models. Further, studies have yet to demonstrate the use of the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model in predicting presence and yield of large-scale field crops in the United States. In this study, we investigate the application of the Maxent model to predict crop suitability and present novel methods of evaluating its predictive ability. Maxent is a correlative machine learning model often used to predict cropland suitability. In this study, we used Maxent to model land suitability for corn production in the contiguous United States under current bioclimatic conditions. We developed methods for evaluating Maxent's predictive ability through three comparisons: (i) classification of suitable land units and comparison of results with another similar species distribution model (Random Forest Classification), (ii) comparison of output response curves with existing literature on corn suitability thresholds, and (iii) with correlation of predicted suitability with observed extent and yield. We determined that Maxent was superior to Random Forest, especially in its modeling of areas in which land was likely suitable for corn but was not currently associated with observed corn presence. We also determined that Maxent's predictions correlated strongly with observed yield statistics and were consistent with existing literature regarding the range of bioclimatic variable values associated with suitable production conditions for corn. We concluded that Maxent was an effective method for modeling current cropland suitability and could be applied to broader issues of agriculture–climate relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives: Little is known about outcome improvements and disparities in cardiac arrest and active cancer. We performed the first known AI and propensity score (PS)-augmented clinical, cost-effectiveness, and computational ethical analysis of cardio-oncology cardiac arrests including left heart catheterization (LHC)-related mortality reduction and related disparities. Materials and methods: A nationally representative cohort analysis was performed for mortality and cost by active cancer using the largest United States all-payer inpatient dataset, the National Inpatient Sample, from 2016 to 2018, using deep learning and machine learning augmented propensity score-adjusted (ML-PS) multivariable regression which informed cost-effectiveness and ethical analyses. The Cardiac Arrest Cardio-Oncology Score (CACOS) was then created for the above population and validated. The results informed the computational ethical analysis to determine ethical and related policy recommendations. Results: Of the 101,521,656 hospitalizations, 6,656,883 (6.56%) suffered cardiac arrest of whom 61,300 (0.92%) had active cancer. Patients with versus without active cancer were significantly less likely to receive an inpatient LHC (7.42% versus 20.79%, p < 0.001). In ML-PS regression in active cancer, post-arrest LHC significantly reduced mortality (OR 0.18, 95%CI 0.14–0.24, p < 0.001) which PS matching confirmed by up to 42.87% (95%CI 35.56–50.18, p < 0.001). The CACOS model included the predictors of no inpatient LHC, PEA initial rhythm, metastatic malignancy, and high-risk malignancy (leukemia, pancreas, liver, biliary, and lung). Cost-benefit analysis indicated 292 racial minorities and $2.16 billion could be saved annually by reducing racial disparities in LHC. Ethical analysis indicated the convergent consensus across diverse belief systems that such disparities should be eliminated to optimize just and equitable outcomes. Conclusions: This AI-guided empirical and ethical analysis provides a novel demonstration of LHC mortality reductions in cardio-oncology cardiac arrest and related disparities, along with an innovative predictive model that can be integrated within the digital ecosystem of modern healthcare systems to improve equitable clinical and public health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The methodology used by the First Street Foundation Wildfire Model (FSF-WFM) to compute estimates of the 30-year, climate-adjusted aggregate wildfire hazard for the contiguous United States at 30 m horizontal resolution is presented. The FSF-WFM integrates several existing methods from the wildfire science community and implements computationally efficient and scalable modeling techniques to allow for new high-resolution, CONUS-wide hazard generation. Burn probability, flame length, and ember spread for the years 2022 and 2052 are computed from two ten-year representative Monte Carlo simulations of wildfire behavior, utilizing augmented LANDFIRE fuel estimates updated with all the available disturbance information. FSF-WFM utilizes ELMFIRE, an open-source, Rothermel-based wildfire behavior model, and multiple US Federal Government open data sources to drive the simulations. LANDFIRE non-burnable fuel classes within the wildland–urban interface (WUI) are replaced with fuel estimates from machine-learning models, trained on data from historical fires, to allow the propagation of wildfire through the WUI in the model. Historical wildfire ignition locations and NOAA's hourly time series of surface weather at 2.5 km resolution are used to drive ELMFIRE to produce wildfire hazards representative of the 2022 and 2052 conditions at 30 m resolution, with the future weather conditions scaled to the IPCC CMIP5 RCP4.5 model ensemble predictions. Winds and vegetation were held constant between the 2022 and 2052 simulations, and climate change's impacts on the future fuel conditions are the main contributors to the changes observed in the 2052 results. Non-zero wildfire exposure is estimated for 71.8 million out of 140 million properties across CONUS. Climate change impacts add another 11% properties to this non-zero exposure class over the next 30 years, with much of this change observed in the forested areas east of the Mississippi River. "Major" aggregate wildfire exposure of greater than 6% over the 30-year analysis period from 2022 to 2052 is estimated for 10.2 million properties. The FSF-WFM represents a notable contribution to the ability to produce property-specific, climate-adjusted wildfire risk assessments in the US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, wildfires in many areas of the United States (U.S.) have become larger and more frequent with increasing anthropogenic pressure, including interactions between climate, land-use change, and human ignitions. We aimed to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of contemporary fire characteristics across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We derived fire variables based on frequency, fire radiative power (FRP), event size, burned area, and season length from satellite-derived fire products and a government records database on a 50 km grid (1984–2020). We used k-means clustering to create a hierarchical classification scheme of areas with relatively homogeneous fire characteristics, or modern 'pyromes,' and report on the model with eight major pyromes. Human ignition pressure provides a key explanation for the East-West patterns of fire characteristics. Human-dominated pyromes (85% mean anthropogenic ignitions), with moderate fire size, area burned, and intensity, covered 59% of CONUS, primarily in the East and East Central. Physically dominated pyromes (47% mean anthropogenic ignitions) characterized by relatively large (average 439 mean annual ha per 50 km pixel) and intense (average 75 mean annual megawatts/pixel) fires occurred in 14% of CONUS, primarily in the West and West Central. The percent of anthropogenic ignitions increased over time in all pyromes (0.5–1.7% annually). Higher fire frequency was related to smaller events and lower FRP, and these relationships were moderated by vegetation, climate, and ignition type. Notably, a spatial mismatch between our derived modern pyromes and both ecoregions and historical fire regimes suggests other major drivers for modern U.S. fire patterns than vegetation-based classification systems. This effort to delineate modern U.S. pyromes based on fire observations provides a national-scale framework of contemporary fire regions and may help elucidate patterns of change in an uncertain future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cancer is the second most common cause of death in the United States, accounting for 602,350 deaths in 2020. Cancer-related death rates have declined by 27% over the past two decades, partially due to the identification of novel anti-cancer drugs. Despite improvements in cancer treatment, newly approved oncology drugs are associated with increased toxicity risk. These toxicities may be mitigated by pharmacokinetic optimization and reductions in off-target interactions. As such, there is a need for early-stage implementation of pharmacokinetic (PK) prediction tools. Several PK prediction platforms exist, including pkCSM, SuperCypsPred, Pred-hERG, Similarity Ensemble Approach (SEA), and SwissADME. These tools can be used in screening hits, allowing for the selection of compounds were reduced toxicity and/or risk of attrition. In this short commentary, we used PK prediction tools in the optimization of mitogen activated extracellular signal-related kinase kinase 1 (MEK1) inhibitors. In doing so, we identified MEK1 inhibitors with retained activity and optimized predictive PK properties, devoid of hERG inhibition. These data support the use of publicly available PK prediction platforms in early-stage drug discovery to design safer drugs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United States NRCS has a soil database that has data collected from across the country over the last several decades. This also includes soil spectral scans. This data is available, but it may not be used to its full potential. For this study, pedon, horizon and spectral data was extracted from the database for samples collected from 2011 to 2015. Only sites that had been fully described and horizons that had been analyzed for the full suite of desired properties were used. This resulted in over 14,000 samples that were used for modeling and eight soil properties: soil organic carbon (SOC); total nitrogen (TN); total sulfur (TS); clay; sand; exchangeable calcium (Caex); cation exchange capacity (CEC); and pH. Four chemometric methods were employed for soil property prediction: partial least squares (PLSR); Random Forest (RF); Cubist; and multivariable adaptive regression splines (MARS). The dataset was sufficiently large that only random subsetting was used to create calibration (70%) and validation (30%) sets. SOC, TN, and TS had the strongest prediction results, with an R2 value of over 0.9. Caex, CEC and pH were predicted moderately well. Clay and sand models had slightly lower performance. Of the four methods, Cubist produced the strongest models, while PLSR produced the weakest. This may be due to the complex relationships between soil properties and spectra that PLSR could not capture. The only drawback of Cubist is the difficult interpretability of variable importance. Future research should include the use of environmental variables to improve prediction results. Future work may also avoid the use of PLSR when dealing with large datasets that cover large areas and have high degrees of variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Squamous-cell carcinoma of the anus, being a rare cancer, requires national and international collaborations, networking, organizational proficiency and leadership to overcome barriers towards the implementation of clinical trials to establish improved standards of care treatment strategies and the conduction of translational research projects to shed light into its biology and molecular characterization. The purpose of the present study is to obtain a global frame of the scientific literature related to anal cancer, through a bibliometric analysis of the published articles during the last 20 years (2000–2020), exploring trends and common patterns in research, tracking collaboration and networks to foresee future directions in basic and clinical research. Squamous-cell carcinoma of the anus (ASCC) is a rare disease. Barriers have been encountered to conduct clinical and translational research in this setting. Despite this, ASCC has been a prime example of collaboration amongst researchers. We performed a bibliometric analysis of ASCC-related literature of the last 20 years, exploring common patterns in research, tracking collaboration and identifying gaps. The electronic Scopus database was searched using the keywords "anal cancer", to include manuscripts published in English, between 2000 and 2020. Data analysis was performed using R-Studio 0.98.1091 software. A machine-learning bibliometric method was applied. The bibliometrix R package was used. A total of 2322 scientific documents was found. The average annual growth rate in publication was around 40% during 2000–2020. The five most productive countries were United States of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), France, Italy and Australia. The USA and UK had the greatest link strength of international collaboration (22.6% and 19.0%). Two main clusters of keywords for published research were identified: (a) prevention and screening and (b) overall management. Emerging topics included imaging, biomarkers and patient-reported outcomes. Further efforts are required to increase collaboration and funding to sustain future research in the setting of ASCC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although unique expected energy models can be generated for a given photovoltaic (PV) site, a standardized model is also needed to facilitate performance comparisons across fleets. Current standardized expected energy models for PV work well with sparse data, but they have demonstrated significant over-estimations, which impacts accurate diagnoses of field operations and maintenance issues. This research addresses this issue by using machine learning to develop a data-driven expected energy model that can more accurately generate inferences for energy production of PV systems. Irradiance and system capacity information was used from 172 sites across the United States to train a series of models using Lasso linear regression. The trained models generally perform better than the commonly used expected energy model from international standard (IEC 61724-1), with the two highest performing models ranging in model complexity from a third-order polynomial with 10 parameters ( R a d j 2 = 0.994) to a simpler, second-order polynomial with 4 parameters ( R a d j 2 = 0.993 ), the latter of which is subject to further evaluation. Subsequently, the trained models provide a more robust basis for identifying potential energy anomalies for operations and maintenance activities as well as informing planning-related financial assessments. We conclude with directions for future research, such as using splines to improve model continuity and better capture systems with low (≤1000 kW DC) capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Featured Application: Chemical analysis of soil samples using handheld spectroscopic instruments was performed to investigate if classification accuracy is enhanced through multianalyzer data fusion. The ability to rapidly conduct in-situ chemical analysis of multiple samples of soil and other geological materials in the field offers many advantages over a traditional approach that involves collecting samples for subsequent examination in the laboratory. This study explores the application of complementary spectroscopic analyzers and a data fusion methodology for the classification/discrimination of >100 soil samples from sites across the United States. Commercially available, handheld analyzers for X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy (XRFS), Raman spectroscopy (RS), and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) were used to collect data both in the laboratory and in the field. Following a common data pre-processing protocol, principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLSDA) were used to build classification models. The features generated by PLSDA were then used in a hierarchical classification approach to assess the relative advantage of information fusion, which increased classification accuracy over any of the individual sensors from 80-91% to 94% and 64-93% to 98% for the two largest sample suites. The results show that additional testing with data sets for which classification with individual analyzers is modest might provide greater insight into the limits of data fusion for improving classification accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biomarkers are measurements of biological variables that can determine a state of health. They consist of measuring a single variable or a combination of variables related to the state of health that these variables represent. Biomarkers can provide an early warning of a health problem in relation to an individual patient or group of patients, and thus trigger actions and lead to interventions. Nutritional biomarkers measure the biological consequences of one's diet. In our recent work, we have used machine learning to predict weight, metabolic syndrome and blood pressure, using blood-exam-based biomarkers. In the current work, we use extreme value theory to examine the significance of outliers in health data, with a focus on diet and the standard biochemistry profile. Specifically, we show that, using extreme value analysis and by applying a systemisation of the process, health trends can be predicted, and thus, health interventions can be (at least partially) automated. For that purpose, public access datasets have been used, which were retrieved from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The NHANES is a program of studies designed to assess the health and nutritional status of the population in the United States. In total, about 70,000 datapoints were analysed, covering about a decade's worth of observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) carry significant morbidity and mortality and are associated with substantial economic burden on healthcare systems around the world. Coronary artery disease, as one disease entity under the CVDs umbrella, had a prevalence of 7.2% among adults in the United States and incurred a financial burden of 360 billion US dollars in the years 2016–2017. The introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning over the last two decades has unlocked new dimensions in the field of cardiovascular medicine. From automatic interpretations of heart rhythm disorders via smartwatches, to assisting in complex decision-making, AI has quickly expanded its realms in medicine and has demonstrated itself as a promising tool in helping clinicians guide treatment decisions. Understanding complex genetic interactions and developing clinical risk prediction models, advanced cardiac imaging, and improving mortality outcomes are just a few areas where AI has been applied in the domain of coronary artery disease. Through this review, we sought to summarize the advances in AI relating to coronary artery disease, current limitations, and future perspectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric water heaters represent 14% of the electricity consumption in residential buildings. An average household in the United States (U.S.) spends about USD 400–600 (0.45 ¢/L–0.68 ¢/L) on water heating every year. In this context, water heaters are often considered as a valuable asset for Demand Response (DR) and building energy management system (BEMS) applications. To this end, this study proposes a model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL) approach that aims to minimize the electricity cost of a water heater under a time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing policy by only using standard DR commands. In this approach, a set of RL agents, with different look ahead periods, were trained using the deep Q-networks (DQN) algorithm and their performance was tested on an unseen pair of price and hot water usage profiles. The testing results showed that the RL agents can help save electricity cost in the range of 19% to 35% compared to the baseline operation without causing any discomfort to end users. Additionally, the RL agents outperformed rule-based and model predictive control (MPC)-based controllers and achieved comparable performance to optimization-based control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]