Search

The serious consequences of climate warming have increasingly become a globe agenda in recent decades. China has been actively participating in various initiatives to address global climate change and has made commitments to reduce carbon emissions. Although the logistics industry is regarded as the "new driving force of national economic development", its carbon intensity is relatively high. Therefore, whether the logistics industry can develop in a green and low-carbon way is very crucial. This paper takes the green logistics efficiency of China's provincial logistics industry as the research object. The Super-SBM model is used to measure the China's green logistics efficiency, then the general dynamic characteristics is depicted by kernel density analysis. With the GML (Global Malmquist-Luenberger) index model, the reasons for the changes in green logistics efficiency are explained. Finally, Moran's I index is used to analyze the spatial correlation of green logistics efficiency in each province. The results show that the green logistics efficiency in China is at a low level, but with an upward trend. China's green logistics efficiency has a significant positive spatial correlation, showing a zonal pattern of high in the east and low in the west, and a polarization phenomenon. In addition, the bottleneck of the overall development of green logistics efficiency in China depends on the level of green technology. Furthermore, the results also imply that green technology advancement is an inherent key factor for green logistics efficiency to achieve growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To effectively shift from economic growth based on high levels of energy expenditure and pollution and to actively address global climate change, the purpose of this paper is to explore whether environmental regulation in developing countries helps promote TFP from a credit resource allocation perspective. This paper examines the impact of environmental regulation on firm TFP and the underlying mechanism of TFP using data on Chinese listed A-share companies from 2011 to 2018. The relationship between ERS and enterprise TFP is found to exhibit a clear U shape, that is, it shows the characteristics of inhibition followed by promotion. The mechanism analysis indicates that credit allocation is a significant mediator between environmental regulation and its effect on firm TFP through such allocation, while the heterogeneity analysis shows that in the central and western regions and in highly competitive industries, environmental regulation significantly affects firm TFP through credit allocation. The empirical results, which indicate that ERS in China is still at the left-hand side of the U-shaped curve inhibition area, suggest that government regulation should be strengthened, differentiated regional environmental regulation should be implemented, the bank credit system should be improved, and the U-shaped inflection point must be crossed if high-quality economic development is to be achieved in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Dual Carbon" initiative is a two-stage carbon reduction goal proposed by China, with significant implications for global climate change mitigation. This article examines the impact of the "Dual Carbon" strategy on China's forestry development and explores how to leverage this strategy to facilitate the transformation and advancement of the forestry sector. Current review indicated that forestry has the advantage of achieving higher emission reduction targets at a low cost. Starting with an overview of the "Dual Carbon" strategy, this paper analyzes the carbon sequestration potential of plants and soil, and the challenges and opportunities faced by forestry development under this framework. Furthermore, we outline implementation pathways for forestry development, aiming to provide insights for the progress of China's forestry sector. Overall, it should be noted that the priority is to vigorously develop timber resources, and we also need to vigorously develop and protect forestry talent with the support of China's policies. By trapping into the carbon storage capabilities and leveraging carbon trading mechanisms of forests, a favorable ecological environment can be created, thus achieving the goal of carbon neutrality. Highlights: • Forest development and its carbon sinks, attributed to plant and soil have the potential in carbon sequestration process, thus helping China achieve carbon neutrality. • The supply of forest products and the balance of economic growth and environmental protection are the key difficulties under the "Dual Carbon" strategy. • Trading forest carbon sinks can boost China's sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2015 Paris Agreement has set out the climate change target of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, which poses a serious challenge to countries to reduce emissions. As the world's largest carbon emitter, promoting the realization of the "dual-carbon" goal is the key to realizing China's green transformation and high-quality development. Chinese asset managers play active roles in the capital market as an important channel of asset allocation. Currently, the vast majority of Chinese asset managers hold high percentages of high-carbon industries in their portfolios, and lack quantitative data of their carbon footprints embodied in equity investments, which faces huge carbon-related risks. Therefore, it's an urgent need to comprehensively and scientifically measure financed emissions of Chinese asset managers, which is of great significance for asset managers' carbon risk management and sustainable investment. This paper develops a detailed inventory of carbon emissions for equity portfolios managed by Chinese asset managers from 2010 to 2020, which stands as a pivotal reference for in-depth analysis of emission characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accelerating efforts for the Sustainable Development Goals requires understanding their synergies and trade-offs at the national and sub-national levels, which will help identify the key hurdles and opportunities to prioritize them in an indivisible manner for a country. Here, we present the importance of the 17 goals through synergy and trade-off networks. Our results reveal that 19 provinces show the highest trade-offs in SDG13 (Combating Climate Change) or SDG5 (Gender Equality) consistent with the national level, with other 12 provinces varying. 24 provinces show the highest synergies in SDG1 (No Poverty) or SDG6 (Clean Water and Sanitation) consistent with the national level, with the remaining 7 provinces varying. These common but differentiated SDG priorities reflect that to ensure a coordinated national response, China should pay more attention to the provincial situation, so that provincial governments can formulate more targeted policies in line with their own priorities towards accelerating sustainable development. The paper reveals areas of common and differentiated SDG priority at the national and subnational levels in China considering synergy and trade-off. The findings suggest that provincial governments should formulate more targeted policy aligning with national priority to achieve SDGs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Henan Province is the birthplace of Chinese civilization and one of the earliest human settlements, which means that the area has an important national cultural heritage. Traditional villages are an important facet of this cultural heritage, and studying their spatiotemporal characteristics in different periods has important theoretical and practical significance for the sustainable development and protection of cultural heritage in the region. This paper takes the traditional villages of the Yellow River basin in Henan Province that were formed before 1919 as the research object. Information on the ancient river was obtained through a literature search as well as via field research, and the important tributaries of the Yellow River in different periods were mapped using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The nearest neighbor index, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse and other methods were adopted to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traditional villages. The factors that influenced the evolution of traditional villages were explored in depth by combining changes in the course of the river and water conservancy projects. The results show that the formation of traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province has experienced a historical track of growth, contraction, growth and prosperity and stability. The traditional villages along the Yellow River in Henan Province generally show a clustered pattern, forming a dense concentration of traditional villages in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. The center of gravity shows a migration trend from southeast to northwest. In terms of influencing factors, the spatiotemporal evolution of the relationship between villages and their distance to water is closely related to climatic fluctuations, changes in channel, water conservancy projects and social and cultural factors. This paper deepens our understanding of the relationship between traditional village evolution and watersheds by improving the consistency between village spatial distribution and historical geography and provides a useful theoretical reference for the sustainable development of China's traditional villages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Temperature-economic growth relationships are computed to quantify the impact of climate change on the economy. However, model performance and differences of predictions among research complicate the use of climate econometric estimation. Machine learning methods provide an alternative that might improve the predictive effects. However, time series and extrapolation issues constrain methods such as random forests. We apply a simple thought experiment with national marginal GDP growth by aggregating subnational climate impact to alleviate the shortcomings in random forests. This paper uses random forests, multivariate cubic regression, and linear spline regression to examine the direct impacts of temperature on economic development and conducts a performance comparison of the methods. The model results indicate an optimal temperature of 15°C, 15°C or 21°C for each model. Furthermore, a thought experiment indicates that the marginal predictions of national GDP changes by approximately 1%, −3%, or −6% for models with 1°C warming. The performance comparison suggests that random forests have stable model performance and better prediction performance in bootstrapping. However, the extrapolation problem in random forests causes underestimation of climate impact in 5% of cells under 6°C warming. Overall, our results suggest that temperature should be considered in economic projections under climate change scenarios. We also suggest the use of more machine learning methods in climate impact assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the early 2000s, China has carried out extensive "grain-for-green" and grazing exclusion practices to combat desertification in the desertification-prone region (DPR). However, the environmental and socioeconomic impacts of these practices remain unclear. We quantify and compare the changes in fractional vegetation cover (FVC) with economic and population data in the DPR before and after the implementation of these environmental programmes. Here we show that climatic change and CO2 fertilization are relatively strong drivers of vegetation rehabilitation from 2001-2020 in the DPR, and the declines in the direct incomes of farmers and herders caused by ecological practices exceed the subsidies provided by governments. To minimize economic hardship, enhance food security, and improve the returns on policy investments in the DPR, China needs to adapt its environmental programmes to address the potential impacts of future climate change and create positive synergies to combat desertification and improve the economy in this region. This paper shows that desertification combating practices decline incomes of farmers and herders, and China needs to adapt its ecological programmes to address the impacts of climate change and create positive synergies to combat desertification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in patterns of meteorological parameters, like precipitations, temperature, wind, etc., are causing significant increases in various extreme events. And these extreme events, i.e., floods, heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts, etc., lead to a shortage of water resources, crop failures, wildfires, and economic losses. However, Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are considered the most important tools for quantifying climate change. Therefore, we selected 20 different GCMs of precipitation in our research, as the frequency of extreme events, like drought and flood, is highly related to changes in precipitation patterns. However, this research introduced a new weighting scheme — MCFSAWS-Ensemble: Monte Carlo Feature Selection Adaptive Weighting Scheme to Ensemble multiple GCMs, whereas, Monte Carlo Feature Selection (MCFS) is one of the most popular algorithms for discovering important variables. However, the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is mainly based on two sources. Initially, it evaluates the prior performance of each GCM model to define their relative importance using MCFS. Then, it computes value by value difference between the observed and simulated model. In addition, the application of this paper is based on the monthly time series data of precipitation in the Tibet Plateau region of China. In addition, we used twenty GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to analyze the implications of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble. Further, we compared the performance of the MCFSAWS-Ensemble scheme with Simple Model Averaging (SMA) through Mean Average Error (MAE) and correlation statistics. The results of this research indicate that the proposed weighting scheme (MCFSAWS-Ensemble) is more accurate than the SMA approach. Consequently, we recommend the use of advanced machine learning algorithms such as MCFS for making accurate multi-model ensembles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impacts of regional breakdowns or model dimensionality on the model's optimal solutions. Using the United States (USA) and China (CHN) as the experimental subject, we test the various solutions related to USA and CHN, such as the Cournot-Nash equilibrium and the Lindahl equilibrium, in the RICE2020 model under three regional breakdowns. Their solutions' invariance and variances across different model dimensionalities indicate that modeling dimensionality may play a role in the strategic interactions among the regions in GHG mitigation. The simulation results also point out the pitfalls of the model comparisons across IAMs for climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on climate change, water quality, and their relationship is critical for human survival and development. It can help better mitigate climate change and contribute to appropriate water quality management strategies under uncertain challenges in the future. In this study, bibliometric analysis was used to provide a comprehensive review of the research field of climate change and water quality from 1990 to 2022. The extraction of documents was carried out from the Web of Science Core Collection database. VOSviewer, Bibliometrix R-package, and CiteSpace were used for analysis and scientific mapping. The results show that China, the United States, and Canada are the main countries driving this field, and China and the United States closely cooperate. It was also found that the areas of water eutrophication and climate change research had a close relationship and were the current research hotspots. Finally, it is revealed that the areas of sustainable development of climate change and water quality management, model simulation and method improvement between climate change and water quality, groundwater quality risk assessment driven by climate change, the impact of water on climate change, and expanding the research scale of the relationship between climate change and water quality will be the future research trends in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seamless prediction is a weather–climate integrated prediction covering multiple time scales that include days, weeks, months, seasons, years, and decades. Seamless prediction can provide different industries with information such as weather conditions and climate variations from the next few days to years, which have important impacts on economic and social development and important reference value for short-, medium- and long-term decision-making and planning of the country. Therefore, seamless prediction has received widespread attention from the international scientific community recently. As Chinese scientists have also carried out relevant research, this paper reviews the research in China on developments and applications of seamless prediction methods and prediction systems in recent years. Among them, the main progress of seamless prediction methods studies is reviewed from four aspects: short- and medium-range weather forecasting, subseasonal-to-seasonal, seasonal-to-interannual, and decadal climate prediction. In terms of development and application of seamless prediction systems, the main achievements made by meteorological operational departments, scientific institutes, and universities in China in recent years are reviewed. Finally, some of the issues in seamless prediction that need further study are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influences of human activity on regional climate over China have been widely reported and drawn great attention from both the scientific community and governments. This paper reviews the evidence of the anthropogenic influence on regional climate over China from the perspectives of surface air temperature (SAT), precipitation, droughts, and surface wind speed, based on studies published since 2018. The reviewed evidence indicates that human activities, including greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol emissions, land use and cover change, urbanization, and anthropogenic heat release, have contributed to changes in the SAT trend and the likelihood of regional record-breaking extreme high/low temperature events over China. The anthropogenically forced SAT signal can be detected back to the 1870s in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau region. Although the anthropogenic signal of summer precipitation over China is detectable and anthropogenic forcing has contributed to an increased likelihood of regional record-breaking heavy/low precipitation events, the anthropogenic precipitation signal over China is relatively obscure. Moreover, human activities have also contributed to a decline in surface wind speed, weakening of monsoon precipitation, and an increase in the frequency of droughts and compound extreme climate/weather events over China in recent decades. This review can serve as a reference both for further understanding the causes of regional climate changes over China and for sound decision-making on regional climate mitigation and adaptation. Additionally, a few key or challenging scientific issues associated with the human influence on regional climate changes are discussed in the context of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031–2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper used original survey data in Shandong province of China to depict local farmers' perceptions of combined climatic and market risks, and their adaptive behaviors. Two Logit models were developed to capture the empirical relationship between farmers' risk perception of the combined risks and adaptive behaviors. Results show that farmer's risk perception of climate change and market significantly affected their adoption behavior of adaptive measures, including perception of rainfall decrease, gale decrease, drought increase, and price fall of agricultural products. Moreover farmers' adaptive behaviors are more sensitive to their perceptions of extreme climatic events. Addition of demographic factors can improve the explanatory capacity of the Logit model. As illustrated by the models, male and better educated farmers have greater willingness to take actions for averting risks, while household heads with bigger farm are more reluctant. A majority of respondents chose to construct farm structure for irrigation and water conservation to avert climatic risks. Insurance, which is regarded as an effective tool to help farmers mitigate risks and avoid losses, has not been sufficiently accepted by farmers in rural areas in Shandong province. This underscores the need of effective communication of knowledge to enhance farmers' coping capacity and to encourage their active response to risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is expected to have a major impact on the hydrological cycle. Understanding potential changes in future extreme precipitation is important to the planning of industrial and agricultural water use, flood control, and ecological environment protection. In this paper, we study the statistical distribution of extreme precipitation based on historical observation and various global climate models (GCMs), and predict the expected change and the associated uncertainty. The empirical frequency, generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, and L-moment estimator algorithms are used to establish the statistical distribution relationships and the multi-model ensemble predictions are established by the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method. This ensemble forecast takes advantage of multi-model synthesis, which is an effective measure to reduce the uncertainty of model selection in extreme precipitation forecasting. We have analyzed the relationships among extreme precipitation, return period, and precipitation durations for 6 representative cities in China. More significantly, the approach allows for establishing the uncertainty of extreme precipitation predictions. The empirical frequency from the historical data is all within the 90% confidence interval of the BMA ensemble. For the future predictions, the extreme precipitation intensities of various durations tend to become larger compared to the historic results. The extreme precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario is greater than that under the RCP2.6 scenario. The developed approach not only effectively gives the extreme precipitation predictions, but also can be used to any other extreme hydrological events in future climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-resolution oasis maps are imperative for understanding ecological and socio-economic development of arid regions. However, due to the late establishment and relatively niche nature of the oasis discipline, there are no high-precision datasets related to oases in the world to date. To fill this gap, detailed visual interpretation of remote sensing images on Google Earth Professional or Sentinel-2 was conducted in summer 2020, and for the first time, a high-precision dataset of China's oases (abbreviation HDCO) with a resolution of 1 meter was constructed. HDCO comprises 1,466 oases with a total area of 277,375.56 km2. The kappa coefficient for this dataset validated by the field survey was 0.8686 and the AUC value for the ROC curve was 0.935. In addition, information on the geographic coordinates, climatic conditions, major landforms, and hydrological features of each oasis was added to the attribute table of the dataset. This dataset enables researchers to quantitatively monitor location and area of oases, fosters exploration of the relationship between oases and human under climate change and urbanization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wet bulb temperature (Tw) has gained considerable attention as a crucial indicator of heat-related health risks. Here we report south-to-north spatially heterogeneous trends of Tw in China over 1979-2018. We find that actual water vapor pressure (Ea) changes play a dominant role in determining the different trend of Tw in southern and northern China, which is attributed to the faster warming of high-latitude regions of East Asia as a response to climate change. This warming effect regulates large-scale atmospheric features and leads to extended impacts of the South Asia high (SAH) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) over southern China and to suppressed moisture transport. Attribution analysis using climate model simulations confirms these findings. We further find that the entire eastern China, that accommodates 94% of the country's population, is likely to experience widespread and uniform elevated thermal stress the end of this century. Our findings highlight the necessity for development of adaptation measures in eastern China to avoid adverse impacts of heat stress, suggesting similar implications for other regions as well. Attributing spatially heterogeneous heat stress trends to water vapor pressure changes driven by climate change-induced rapid warming in high-latitudes of East Asia, the authors predict widespread and uniform future heat stress in eastern China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biogeographical range shift of insect pests is primarily governed by temperature. However, the range shift of seasonal long-distance migratory insects may be very different from that of sedentary insects. Nilaparvata lugens (BPH), a serious rice pest, can only overwinter in tropical-to-subtropical regions, and some populations migrate seasonally to temperate zones with the aid of low-level jet stream air currents. This study utilized the CLIMEX model to project the overwintering area under the climate change scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, both in 2030s and 2080s. The overwintering boundary is predicted to expand poleward and new overwintering areas are predicted in the mid-latitude regions of central-to-eastern China and mid-to-southern Australia. With climate change, the habitable areas remained similar, but suitability decreased substantially, especially in the near-equatorial regions, owing to increasing heat stress. The range shift is similar between RCP2.6-2030s, RCP2.6-2080s, and RCP8.5-2030s, but extreme changes are projected under RCP8.5-2080s with marginal areas increasing from 27.2 to 38.8% and very favorable areas dropping from 27.5 to 3.6% compared to the current climate. These findings indicate that climate change will drive range shifts in BPH and alter regional risks differently. Therefore, international monitoring programs are needed to effectively manage these emerging challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is a serious environmental issue appearing in China. As a public service institution operating around the clock, the negative impact of hospitals on the environment is evident, promoting their workers' pro-environmental behavior (PEB) through increasing climate change health risk perception (CHRP) is an effective method to protect the environment and achieve sustainable development. This study investigates how CHRP shapes pro-environmental attitude (PEA), pro-environmental intention (PEI), and pro-environmental behavior (PEB) among hospital workers. Using structural equation modeling (SEM) to determine the chain of causation from CHRP to PEB among hospital workers. The result shows that CHRP positively affects PEA and PEI, and PEI positively affects their PEB. In addition, although CHRP has no significant direct effect on PEB, it can play a crucial indirect effect through the mediating role of PEI. Moreover, the result of multiple regression shows that there are significant differences regarding PEA, PEI, and PEB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Global climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today, and forests play a crucial role as significant carbon sinks and providers of ecosystem services in mitigating climate change and protecting the environment. China, as one of the largest developing countries globally, owns 60% of its forest resources collectively. Evaluating the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests not only helps assess the contribution of China's forest resources to global climate change mitigation but also provides important evidence for formulating relevant policies and measures. Results: Over the past 30 years, the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China has shown an overall upward trend. Except for coastal provinces, southern collective forest areas, as well as some southwestern and northeastern regions, have the advantage of lower carbon sequestration costs. Furthermore, LSTM network predictions indicate that the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests in China will continue to rise. By 2030, the average carbon sequestration cost of collective forests is projected to reach 125 CNY per ton(= 16.06 Euros/t). Additionally, there is spatial correlation in the carbon sequestration cost of collective forests. Timber production, labor costs, and labor prices have negative spatial spillover effects on carbon sequestration costs, while land opportunity costs, forest accumulation, and rural resident consumption have positive spatial spillover effects. Conclusion: The results of this study indicate regional disparities in the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration costs of collective forests, with an undeniable upward trend in future cost growth. It is essential to focus on areas with lower carbon sequestration costs and formulate targeted carbon sink economic policies and management measures to maximize the carbon sequestration potential of collective forests and promote the sustainable development of forestry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quest to eradicate poverty, central to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), poses a significant global challenge. Advancement in sustainable rural development is critical to this effort, requiring the seamless integration of environmental, economic, and governmental elements. Previous research often omits the complex interactions among these factors. Addressing this gap, this study evaluates sustainable rural development in China by examining the interconnection between agricultural production and government-led poverty reduction, with annual rainfall considered an influential factor of climate change impacts on these sectors and overall sustainability. Utilizing a Meta-frontier entropy network dynamic Directional Distance Function (DDF) within an exogenous Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model, we categorize China's 27 provinces into southern and northern regions according to the Qinling-Huaihe line for a comparative study of environmental, economic, and governmental efficiency. This innovative approach overcomes the limitations of previous static analyses. The findings reveal: (1) Rainfall, as an exogenous variable, significantly affects agricultural production efficiency. (2) The overall efficiency in both southern and northern regions increases when accounting for rainfall. (3) Government effectiveness in poverty reduction is comparatively lower in the northern region than in the southern region when rainfall is considered. These insights underscore the importance of including climatic variables in sustainable development policies and emphasize the need for region-specific strategies to bolster resilience against climatic challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historical records truthfully document human life and activities associated with climate and environmental changes. Based on the official historical records for the years 1–1911 Common Era (i.e., a period of 1911 years), we examine how the 408 epidemic events, occurring in 282 years, are related to solar activity, geographical locations, seasons, and natural disasters of anomalous temperature and irregular precipitation, in China. The epidemics occur more frequently during the low solar activity period. The inland area and area north to the climate boundary of Qinling–Huaihe Line along 35° geographic latitude, in particular, suffer epidemics more often during low solar activity periods. In fact, 45% or more epidemics occurred in summer, while less than 9% occurred in winter. The infection is highly related to social distancing, and therefore the epidemics also occur likely in areas with high-density population or heavy traffic. Statistical tests further demonstrate that natural disasters owing to anomalous temperature and irregular precipitation act as mediators which significantly cause the epidemics in ancient China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the largest terrestrial organic carbon pool, soil organic carbon (SOC) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, but it is easily affected by land use and climate change. The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (HHHP) in China, which is dominated by dry farming, is experiencing rapid farmland loss and gain (farmland use transition), which may cause drastic changes in SOC storage. To clarify the effects of farmland use transition on SOC in dry farming areas, this study adopted a land use transition matrix and spatial analyst tool to explore the characteristics of farmland use transition and its effects on SOC content and stocks in the 200 cm soil layer in the HHHP from 2000 to 2020. The results showed that the farmland use transition in this area during that time period resulted in a net decrease of 16.06 × 103 km2 of farmland, of which urban built-up land and rural settlements led to a net reduction of farmland by 9.74 × 103 km2 and 6.43 × 103 km2, respectively, which was mainly affected by climate, topography, and economic factors. In addition, the farmland use transition resulted in a net increase in SOC storage of 6.13 Tg C, contributing 44.32% of the net increase. This is likely because the change in land use type led to a change in soil bulk density and soil gravel content while altering the SOC content, which in turn affected the SOC stock. This study has important implications for addressing global climate change and maintaining sustainable agricultural resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Black carbon (BC) encompasses a range of carbonaceous materials––including soot, char, and charcoal––derived from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. Urban soils can become enriched in BC due to proximity to these combustion sources. We conducted a literature review of BC in urban soils globally and found 26 studies reporting BC and total organic carbon (TOC) content collected to a maximum of 578 cm depth in urban soils across 35 cities and 10 countries. We recorded data on city, climate, and land use/land cover characteristics to examine drivers of BC content and contribution to TOC in soil. Results: All studies were conducted in the northern hemisphere, with 68% of the data points collected in China and the United States. Surface samples (0–20 cm) accounted for 62% of samples in the dataset. Therefore, we focused our analysis on 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm depths. Urban soil BC content ranged from 0–124 mg/g (median = 3 mg/g) at 0–10 cm and from 0–53 mg/g (median = 2.8 mg/g) at 10–20 cm depth. The median proportional contribution of BC to TOC was 23% and 15% at 0–10 cm and 10–20 cm, respectively. Surface soils sampled in industrial land use and near roads had the highest BC contents and proportions, whereas samples from residential sites had among the lowest. Soil BC content decreased with mean annual soil temperature. Conclusions: Our review indicates that BC comprises a major fraction (nearly one quarter) of the TOC in urban surface soils, yet sampling bias towards the surface could hide the potential for BC storage at depth. Land use emerged as an importer driver of soil BC contents and proportions, whereas land cover effects remain uncertain. Warmer and wetter soils were found to have lower soil BC than cooler and drier soils, differences that likely reflect soil BC loss mechanisms. Additional research on urban soil BC at depth and from diverse climates is critical to better understand the role of cities in the global carbon cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates drought events, focusing on the region of China, using simulations from five global climate models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is employed to analyze drought severity, duration, and frequency over three future periods. Evaluation of the GCMs' simulations against observational data indicates their effectiveness in capturing historical climatic change across China. The rapid increase in CO2 concentration under high-emission scenarios in the mid- and late-future century (2040–2070 and 2071–2100) substantially influences vegetation behavior via regulation on leaf stomata and canopy structure. This regulation decelerates the increase in potential evapotranspiration, thereby mitigating the sharp rise in future drought occurrences in China. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop strategies and measures for mitigating and adapting to future drought conditions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The abnormity of climate change poses environmental concerns and indirectly promotes the development of low-carbon economic growth pattern. Climate change mitigation technology innovations contribute significantly to achieve environmental goals in China, and thus, technological cooperation has become a strategic choice for the Chinese provinces to achieve technological breakthroughs. Based on 3, 280, 808 patents, this study uses social network analysis (SNA) method and similarity measurement to discuss the evolution process and structural features of the spatial correlation network to analyze the patent data from 1985 to 2020. The process for the research is as follows. First, a form solution of the correlation problem to calculate the minimum Euclidean distance is available in the field of social network. Second, the European distance is used to measure the similarity between provinces, and then, SNA is used to construct the spatial correlation network. Finally, the similarity of growth trend of provincial patent applications in different years from a nonlinear perspective is described, so as to calculate the potential provincial linkage strength. The results demonstrate that low-carbon technology innovation in China takes the form of a network structure. The network exhibits significant characteristics of regional agglomeration, and several central provinces exert the role of mediation and transmission, such as Tianjin, Hubei, and Henan. The study contributes by illustrating the current situation of green technology innovation and provides a critical theoretical foundation for the government when formulating future low-carbon economy development policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achievement of national climate targets and the corresponding costs would entirely depend on regional actions within the country. However, because of substantial inequalities and heterogeneities among regions, especially in developing economies, aggressive or uniform actions may exacerbate inequity and induce huge economic losses, which in turn challenges the national climate pledges. Hence, this study extends prior research by proposing economically optimal strategies that can achieve national climate targets and ensure the greatest local and national benefits as well as regional equality. Focusing on the biggest developing country China, we find this strategy can avoid up to 1.54% of cumulative GDP losses for approaching carbon neutrality, and more than 90% of regions would obtain economic gains compared either with existing independently launched targets or with the uniform strategy that all regions achieve peak carbon emissions before 2030. We also provide optimal carbon mitigation pathways to regional peak carbon, carbon intensity and energy consumption. Aggressive or uniform actions on climate targets may exacerbate regional inequality and induce economic losses in China. The proposed collaborative strategy for carbon neutrality can avoid up to 1.54% of GDP losses while 90% of provinces would gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate policies can have a significant impact on the economy. However, these policies have often been associated with uncertainty. Quantitative assessment of the socioeconomic impact of climate policy uncertainty is equally or perhaps more important than looking at the policies themselves. Using a deep learning algorithm—the MacBERT model—this study constructed indices of Chinese climate policy uncertainty (CCPU) at the national, provincial and city levels for the first time. The CCPU indices are based on the text mining of news published by a set of major newspapers in China. A clear upward trend was found in the indices, demonstrating increasing policy uncertainties in China in addressing climate change. There is also evidence of clear regional heterogeneity in subnational indices. The CCPU dataset can provide a useful source of information for government actors, academics and investors in understanding the dynamics of climate policies in China. These indices can also be used to investigate the empirical relationship between climate policy uncertainty and other socioeconomic factors in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on sustainable business models and climate change is the focus of this article, which examines the industry, business and sustainability which has attracted a lot of attention. Because of this, we are investigating the effects of implementing business sustainability capabilities using a multiple-case methodology. An original report on China's small- and medium-sized businesses provided the data for this study that examined the theoretical and empirical relationships between financial literacy, innovation and environmental conservation. We devised a conceptual model to demonstrate the impact of corporate sustainability skills and competencies on climate change. Endogeneity concerns connected to financial literacy, innovation and ecological sustainability necessitate the employment of an instrumental variable for climate change. After adjusting for individual and firm characteristics, we found that financial literacy may substantially impact a company's sustainable business model. The findings suggest that financial literacy may boost company innovations by relieving financial restrictions and enhancing corporate governance, both of which contribute to the development of sustainable businesses that assist in increasing climate change mitigation efforts. On the other hand, innovation has a more significant influence on low-leverage companies. There was also a lot of talk about climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change in the business context. This research, therefore, sheds light on how business sustainability capabilities and competencies might improve a company's environmental performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The incidence of plague has rebounded in the Americas, Asia, and Africa alongside rapid globalization and climate change. Previous studies have shown local climate to have significant nonlinear effects on plague dynamics among rodent communities. We analyzed an 18-year database of plague, spanning 1998 to 2015, in the foci of Mongolia and China to trace the associations between marmot plague and climate factors. Our results suggested a density-dependent effect of precipitation and a geographic location-dependent effect of temperature on marmot plague. That is, a significantly positive relationship was evident between risk of plague and precipitation only when the marmot density exceeded a certain threshold. The geographical heterogeneity of the temperature effect and the contrasting slopes of influence for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and other regions in the study (nQTP) were primarily related to diversity of climate and landscape types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, to improve air quality, significant efforts have been made to reduce regional aerosols including China, Europe and North America, which have potential impacts on climate. In this study, fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors from 2013 to 2019 are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Aerosol emissions changes, especially reductions in China, North America and Europe, during 2013–2019 resulted in surface air temperature increases across the Northern Hemisphere. Global aerosol changes induce a regional warming of 0.2 °C in China, equally contributed by domestic and foreign emissions changes. China's domestic emission reductions lead to a regional average temperature rise of 0.1°C, primarily driven by rapid atmospheric adjustments over eastern China. Foreign aerosol changes, particularly reductions in North America and Europe, also contributed to a 0.1°C warming in China through slow oceanic processes. This warming in China induced by foreign aerosol changes is due to a teleconnection between the aerosol-induced anomalous regional warming in Eastern U.S.-North Atlantic Ocean-Europe and the downstream East Asian climate through anomalous wave trains propagation. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes on climate in China underscores the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation endeavors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The threat of climate change and the advancement of sustainable development goals to control this threat have been among the countries priorities. The tourism sector can be essential in promoting sustainable development goals by implementing sustainable processes. The primary purpose of this research is to focus on 23 provinces of China to analyze the sustainable tourism modeling according to the annual data for 2010–2021. The findings confirm that for all Chinese provinces, the increase in the general level of prices has a significant and long-term adverse effect on the sustainable development of the tourism industry in the provinces of China. In contrast, the effect of this variable is not significant in the short term. Moreover, the impact of foreign direct investment on the sustainable development of the tourism industry in the short term and the long term is positive in high-income provinces and negative in low-income provinces. The recommended practical policies promote a green financing market and green FDI development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using non-accidental mortality records from 195 sites and 11 model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, we assessed future avoidable heat-related deaths associated with emission mitigation after accounting for population changes in China. Without human-induced climate change in the 21st century, China's heat-related mortality would drop by 48–72% (95% confidence interval (CI): 40–76%), especially at high latitudes and altitudes (up to 80%). Nationally, 15,576–87,612 (95% CI: 6605–106,736) heat-related deaths per year would potentially be avoided by reducing emissions. For most of China, temperature changes dominate the variation in heat-related deaths, while in Central and South China, population changes will have a greater influence. These not only reinforce the necessity of mitigating emissions but also suggest that adjusting population structure and spatial distribution could be applied in some areas to minimize warming impacts on public health. Notably, given that abatement will hardly bring immediate success within the next twenty years, more healthcare infrastructures are urgently needed to manage potential growing heat risks. Particularly in Northwest and South China, where future heat-related deaths would still be 110–140% of current levels (1995–2014) even without anthropogenic warming. We also found that without historical human-induced emissions, China's low level of technology (medical and economic) might increase current heat-related mortality by 57%, even though warming could be mitigated. Consequently, we believe that mitigating climate change risks also requires consideration of the economic/medical losses from lowering emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Previous analyses of the possibility of global breadbasket failures have extrapolated risks based on historical relationships between climate and yields. However, climate change is causing unprecedented events globally, which could exceed critical thresholds and reduce yields, even if there is no historical precedent. This means that we are likely underestimating climate risks to our food system. In the case of wheat, parts of the USA and China show little historical relationship between yields and temperature, but extreme temperatures are now possible that exceed critical physiological thresholds in wheat plants. UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approaches use large ensembles to generate plausible unprecedented events, which can inform our assessment of the risk to crops. We use the UNSEEN approach with a large ensemble of archived seasonal forecasts to generate thousands of plausible events over the last 40 years and compare the results with historically observed extreme temperature and precipitation. In the US midwest, extreme temperatures that would have happened approximately 1-in-100-years in 1981 now have a return period of 1-in-6 years, while in China, the current return period is on the order of 1-in-16 years. This means that in the US midwest, extreme temperatures that used to have a 1% chance to occur in 1981 now have a 17% chance to occur in any given year, while in China, the chance increased from 1% to 6%. Record-breaking years exceeding critical thresholds for enzymes in the wheat plant are now more likely than in the past, and these record-breaking hot years are associated with extremely dry conditions in both locations. Using geopotential height and wind anomalies from the UNSEEN ensemble, we demonstrate that strong winds over land pull dry air towards the regions these during extremely hot and dry unseen events. We characterize plausible extremes from the UNSEEN ensemble that can be used to help imagine otherwise unforeseen events, including a compound event in which high impacts co-occur in both regions, informing adaptation planning in these regions. Recent temperature extremes, especially in the US midwest, are unlikely to be a good proxy for what to expect in the next few years of today's climate, and local stakeholders might perceive their risk to be lower than it really is. We find that there is a high potential for surprise in these regions if people base risk analyses solely on historical datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With global climate change and increasingly extreme weather conditions, the water quality of the Lijiang River Basin (LRB) is facing huge threats. At present, there is still a lack of systematic research on water quality indicators and the influence of indirect factors such as meteorological factors on it in the LRB. Therefore, this study is based on the meteorological, hydrological, and water quality data of the LRB from 2012 to 2018, using the Mann–Kendall test, Morlet wavelet method, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, sensitivity, and contribution rate to quantitative analysis of the relationship between climate conditions and water quality indicators. The results show that the change trends of these hydrological and climatic conditions have almost no significant sudden change; precipitation and streamflow are decreasing each year; the streamflow trend exhibits time hysteresis; precipitation has a stronger influence downstream than on the local area; water quality indicators of both stations exhibited a change period of around 18 to 20 months, with the exception of pH. Water quality indicators are insensitive to precipitation and streamflow, and sensitive to humidity and wind speed; DO was negatively correlated with climate indicators apart from wind speed; almost all water quality indicators in Yangshuo are highly sensitive to air temperature, and the contribution rate of air temperature to ORP and TP reached 4.81% and 3.56%, respectively; sunshine duration has a positive impact on reducing NH4-N and TP. The difference between Yangshuo and Guilin is mostly due to the input of external sources on both sides of the Lijiang River, which results in variations in climate conditions sensitivities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North China Plain faces increasing pressure on fresh water resources due to economic development and climate variations. The effects of climate variations and human activities on the groundwater system in Tianjin, Northern China, were analyzed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model. Our result showed that the groundwater dynamics were influenced by climatic factors and that human activities gradually played a dominant role in the increasing groundwater withdrawal. During the period of 1950–2010, there were no significant trends in annual and wet season precipitation based on Mann–Kendall tests at the 5% significance level. Surface air temperature significantly increased, but potential evapotranspiration and phreatic water evaporation were not significantly changed. The effect of precipitation on groundwater-level fluctuation was decreasing, and the groundwater level declines mainly resulted from the groundwater withdrawal in Tianjin. Sustainable management of groundwater resources in the North China Plain will largely hinge on sustainable management of groundwater withdrawal, especially the efficient use of water for agriculture production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an urgent need to determine the risk of the reduction in distributional ranges of alpine graminoid species induced by rapid warming, as they are adapted to the cold conditions of mountain areas. Here, taking 79 Kobresia species as a case, with the fuzzy set-based classification method, Monte Carlo scheme, and scenarios data of climate shifts, I identified the uncertainty of climate-induced range shifts of Kobresia species, and recognized which species would be in high danger of shrinking their ranges to critical sizes. Deterministic and stochastic scenarios of climate change would result in their output for the majority of the species but were consistent for at least two species. In deterministic scenarios, compared with the baseline conditions, the richness of 79 species was higher in several sites in Northeast and West China and lower in certain sites in Southwest China. In addition, the richness of studied species that over 80% of their existing ranges reduced was about 2–5, while 75–78 species would occupy over 80% of their total ranges. In stochastic scenarios, with a probability above 0.6, around 10–11% of species would have more than 80% of their existing ranges pruned, and approximately 12–19% of species would lose more than 80% of their total ranges, around 40% of the 79 species would be at risk of extinction due to climate change. The risks were mainly caused by changes in the temperature index. These species will need adaptation measures to cope with future climatic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change based on the assumption of constant injury mortality and population scenario. The results show that a 0.50% (95% confident interval (CI): 0.13%–0.88%) increase of injury mortality risk for each 1 °C rise in daily temperature, with higher risk for intentional injury (1.13%, 0.55%–1.71%) than that for unintentional injury (0.40%, 0.04%–0.77%). Compared to the 2010s, total injury deaths attributable to temperature change in China would increase 156,586 (37,654–272,316) in the 2090 s under representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenario with the highest for transport injury (64,764, 8,517–115,743). Populations living in Western China, people aged 15–69 years, and male may suffer more injury mortality burden from increased temperature caused by climate change. Our findings may be informative for public health policy development to effectively adapt to climate change. Injury poses heavy burden on public health, but little evidence on the potential role of climate change on injury exists. Here, the authors collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to estimate the associations between temperature and injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions (drylands) with fragile ecological balance have undergone dramatic climate change in past decades, and how the desertification will change under a continuous warming background still remain uncertain. In this study, the bias-corrected Community Earth System Model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 were dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, based on which the evolution trend of desertification over northern China (NC) in the past (1972–2000) and the near future period (2021–2050) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed using the dune mobility index, and the impacts of climate change on the intensification or reversal of desertification over NC in the near future were explored. The results show that WRF downscaling can reproduce the desertification changes over NC in the past. The regions with a high risk of desertification are mainly located on the border of the desert and gobi. Under a rapidly warming climate in the near future, desertification will likely reverse in most regions of NC, especially for regions north of 40°N over NC. Potential evapotranspiration changes will exacerbate desertification, while precipitation changes will promote rehabilitation, and wind speed changes show obvious local impacts on desertification. The results in this study imply that, with rising temperatures in the future, the extent of desertification will not always continue, desertification will likely reverse at the front and margin of deserts and gobi, and responses of desertification to climate change have significant spatial differences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production, such as farmers' livelihood and the soil quality, has been identified to be strong influenced by climate change in China. However, the benefits of low carbon technologies (LCTs) are still debatable in rice production for farmers, which have been identified to tackle agricultural challenges. The choice of potential LCTs relevant to the case study is based on a literature review of previous empirical studies. Thus, the objectives of the study were to (1) investigate the public perception and preferences of LCTs in rice production of China, and (2) analyze the influences of the factors on farmer's decision in adopting LCTs in rice production. There were 555 farmer surveys from eight representative rice production counties in HP province of southern China, both the Poisson estimators and multivariate probit (MVP) approach were applied in the study. Results: Our results show that water-saving irrigation, integrated pest management techniques and planting green manure crops in winter season were the three major LCTs adapted by farmers in rice production. The intensity and probability of LCTs adoptions were influenced by the main factors including farmers' education level, climate change awareness, machinery ownership, technical support and subsidies. There is a significant correlation among the LCTs, and the adoption of the technologies is interdependent, depicting either complementarities or substitutabilities between the practices. Conclusions: This study suggests that policies enhance the integration of LCTs would be central to farmers' knowledge, environmental concerns, technical service and financial support in rice production systems in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have implied that East Asia was dominated by a zonal climate pattern during the Eocene, with an almost latitudinal arid/semiarid band at ~ 30° N. However, this long-standing model has recently been challenged by growing body of multidisciplinary evidence. Some studies indicated that central China was characterized by climatic fluctuations between humid and drier conditions during the Early Eocene, akin to the present East Asian monsoon (EAM) regime. Using palynological assemblages in the Tantou Basin, central China, we quantitatively reconstructed climate changes from the Late Palaeocene to Early Eocene to better understand climate change in central China. Palynological assemblages revealed that the coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in this area received no less than 800 mm of annual precipitation and experienced a climate change from warm and wet to relatively cool and dry. According to palaeoclimate curves, a sudden climate change occurred in the Early Eocene, with the mean annual temperature and precipitation decreasing by 5.1 °C and 214.8 mm, respectively, and the climate became very similar to the present climate, which is controlled by the monsoon. Therefore, this significant climate change during the Early Eocene may signal the emergence of the EAM in East Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation. Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and assets are exposed to coastal flooding by 2050 but realistic subsidence control measures can avoid additional risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evident climate jump after 2000 in China may have greatly influenced the production of winter wheat, which is one of the nation's major grain crops. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on winter wheat production and identify the climatic factors primarily responsible, we used daily meteorological data from 2244 stations and integrated indicators to examine the decadal changes in the potential plantable zone (PPZ), growth periods, and climatic suitability for winter wheat in China from 1985 to 1999 and from 2000 to 2014. The results showed the following: (1) The PPZ has decreased by approximately 9%, and the main reason may be the increased frequency of extreme cold events in northern China from 2000 to 2014. (2) In most of the PPZ, the suitable sowing date has been delayed, the potential maturity date has advanced, and total days during the potential growing season have significantly decreased because of the increasing temperature. (3) The suitable area and optimal area of winter wheat have significantly decreased by 9% and 13%, respectively. The changes in climatic suitability are affected by both temperature and radiation in the north, whereas the impact is more from precipitation in the south. The climate may be changing in a direction unsuitable for winter wheat. As global warming and climate extremes intensify in the future, winter wheat production may become more challenging, and adequate measures should be adopted to guarantee reliable and high yields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological drought is a highly complex and extreme natural disaster, which has increased in deficit, areal extent, and frequency with the penetration of climate change impact. For better anticipating hydrological droughts, it is crucial to evaluate hydrological drought and its teleconnections with large-scale climate indices (LSCI) effectively. This study estimated the dynamics and patterns of hydrological drought in the near-real river networks by virtue of the standardized runoff index (SRI) based on VIC and large-scale routing model in the Xijiang River basin, and revealed their teleconnections with the climate indices. Results show that model simulation can reasonably reveal the hydrological drought evolutions in near-real river networks and effectively expose the drought downward spread along main channels. The drought spread distances in Hongshuihe and Yujiang Rivers are farther under the comprehensive influence of climate, topography, and watershed shape. Hydrological drought evolutions in the upper reaches are mainly manifested as three patterns, including S12 (simultaneous significant changes in drought intensity, concentration degree, and frequency), S7(simultaneous significant changes in drought intensity and frequency), and S1(single significant change in drought intensity). These drought dynamic patterns are majority affected by climate variation patterns M1 (warm and cold AMO), M3 (cold PDO), and M7 (warm AMO/AO). For decision-makers, this work is beneficial for understanding and anticipating hydrological droughts in the river networks, and further selecting management strategies for water resources. Highlights: The quantitative results of model simulation are reliable for drought evaluation. Drought concentration period delays and drought risk increases significantly. Dynamic evolutions of drought mainly manifest as three combinations patterns. Upstream drought is mainly affected by AMO, PDO, and AMO/AO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon budget accounting relies heavily on Food and Agriculture Organization land-use data reported by governments. Here we develop a new land-use and cover-change database for China, finding that differing historical survey methods biased China's reported data causing large errors in Food and Agriculture Organization databases. Land ecosystem model simulations driven with the new data reveal a strong carbon sink of 8.9 ± 0.8 Pg carbon from 1980 to 2019 in China, which was not captured in Food and Agriculture Organization data-based estimations due to biased land-use and cover-change signals. The land-use and cover-change in China, characterized by a rapid forest expansion from 1980 to 2019, contributed to nearly 44% of the national terrestrial carbon sink. In contrast, climate changes (22.3%), increasing nitrogen deposition (12.9%), and rising carbon dioxide (8.1%) are less important contributors. This indicates that previous studies have greatly underestimated the impact of land-use and cover-change on the terrestrial carbon balance of China. This study underlines the importance of reliable land-use and cover-change databases in global carbon budget accounting. The impact of land-use and cover-change (LUCC) on ecosystem carbon stock in China is poorly known due to large biases in existing databases. Here the authors develop a new LUCC database with corrected false signals and reveal that forest expansion is the dominant driver of China's recent carbon sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global surface temperature is increasing significantly under climate change with increasingly uneven distribution of precipitation, which has been making an important impact on the sustainable development of the dryland agriculture in semi-arid regions. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (IMAR) has the largest area ratio of semi-arid regions in China, and spring wheat is one of its major grain crops, and the negative impacts of climate change pose a serious threat to its production. In order to reduce this threat, we assessed the impact thresholds and risks posed by the main climatic factors to spring-wheat production, and put forward quantitative adaptive countermeasures. The results showed that, from 1961 to 2012, the appropriate impact thresholds of average temperature, precipitation, fertilization level, and water supply level were 15.6 °C, 333 mm, 319.5 kg/ha, and 743.7 mm, respectively. Compared with the average values in 1996–2012, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 162.2 kg/ha and 406.5 mm, respectively, to improve the adaptive yield of spring wheat. The risks of adverse impacts of temperature rise, precipitation decrease, and their combined effect on spring-wheat production were found to be 11.1%, 9.3%, and 10.3%, respectively. The whole IMAR showed a high risk of adverse impacts of temperature rise and the combined action of temperature rise and precipitation decrease on spring-wheat production. In particular, the spring-wheat production in the northeastern, eastern, and central areas were found to be at the highest risk to the impacts of climate change. Based on the determined appropriate thresholds of fertilization level and water supply level, it was determined that in the northeastern area, the maximum fertilization level and water supply level could be increased by 229.9 kg/ha and 441.4 mm, respectively, to increase the adaptive yield of spring wheat. In the eastern area, the two factors could be increased by 142.2 kg/ha and 464.3 mm, respectively. In the central area, they could be increased by 242.2 kg/ha and 513.7 mm, respectively. In the southwestern area, they could be increased by 41.4 kg/ha and 201.7 mm, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In China, grape is one of the top five fruit crops for both bearing acreage and production. Recently, national grape production has been stalling because of an increase in drought events. In order to combat the adverse effects of drought on grape production, it is imperative to understand the historical drought trend and frequency during the growing season. In this study, we focused on agricultural drought during the four growth periods of grape: bud break-flowering, flowering-veraison, veraison-berry maturation, and berry maturation-leaf fall. Based on the weather data from 429 meteorological stations, we computed the Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI) in the five main grape-growing regions of China: Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, Southwest China, and Southeast China. Then, we evaluated the CWDI-based drought distribution and trend in the study regions, as well as the frequency of different degrees of drought. The results showed that exceptional drought was occurring frequently in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northern Gansu province, and northern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Among the four study growth periods of grape, exceptional drought was the most expansive during bud break-flowering. What's more, exceptional drought coverage during bud break-flowering in the study regions was increasing from 1981 to 2016. Analysis of butterfly structure showed that the occurrence of drought was continuous and persistent in northern China. Our study results could serve as guideposts to highlight Chinese grape production industry's vulnerability to agricultural drought against the background of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]