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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the water resources vulnerability (WRV) rationally in Haihe River Basin (HRB) using set pair analysis (SPA) theory. Design/methodology/approach – An improved intelligent set pair analysis (IISPA) model is established, in which intelligent SPA theory is introduced and the weights are determined by use of the maximum entropy principle and the improved analytic hierarchy process method. The index systems and criteria of WRV assessment in terms of water cycle, socio-economy, and ecological environment are established based on the analysis of sensibility and adaptability. Findings – The authors apply IISPA to the WRV assessment of seven administrative divisions in HRB. Results show IISPA can fully take advantage of certain and uncertain information compared with fuzzy assessment and topsis assessment models. For present situation, Shanxi, Shandong, Tianjing, Inner Mongolia, Hebei are higher, Henan and Beijing are the middle vulnerability. But Henan will become worse under climate change scenario II and IV. Research limitations/implications – The analysis results may be affected by the limited climate change data. Practical implications – It is helpful for further research to the complexity analysis of water resources system. Social implications – This paper will have an important impact on water resources sustainable utilization. Originality/value – This is the first time to utilize IISPA method to analyze the WRV of seven administrative divisions in HRB. This paper provides an important theoretical support for water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]