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Simple Summary: Spring in Europe has been trending earlier for almost half a century. Long-distance migrant birds, such as the Willow Warbler and Pied Flycatcher, which breed in Europe, have arrived earlier too. It is broadly accepted that warming springs in temperate regions explain the earlier arrival of migrants. However, migration started weeks earlier and thousands of kilometres away. There must be additional cues elsewhere triggering migration. Meteorologists have developed measures of atmospheric circulation which are related to climate variability in wide regions. One of them is the Southern Oscillation Index, which reflects El Niño/La Niña that cause droughts and floods in the southern hemisphere. Other atmospheric circulation patterns, measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, help predict total rainfall for a whole season in various parts of Africa and Europe. Good rains are associated with plant growth and with insect abundance. Insects provide food for most of these migrants. Therefore, this paper asks the question: "Is the timing of arrival of long-distance migrants in spring related to the climates they experience in the places where they are over the year prior to arrival in Europe?" This paper says the answer is "Yes". Earlier springs in temperate regions since the 1980s, attributed to climate change, are thought to influence the earlier arrival of long-distance migrant passerines. However, this migration was initiated weeks earlier in Africa, where the Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, North Atlantic Oscillation drive climatic variability, and may additionally influence the migrants. Multiple regressions investigated whether 15 indices of climate in Africa and Europe explained the variability in timing of arrival for seven trans-Saharan migrants. Our response variable was Annual Anomaly (AA), derived from standardized mistnetting from 1982–2021 at Bukowo, Polish Baltic Sea. For each species, the best models explained a considerable part of the annual variation in the timing of spring's arrival by two to seven climate variables. For five species, the models included variables related to temperature or precipitation in the Sahel. Similarly, the models included variables related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (for four species), Indian Ocean Dipole (three), and Southern Oscillation (three). All included the Scandinavian Pattern in the previous summer. Our conclusion is that climate variables operating on long-distance migrants in the areas where they are present in the preceding year drive the phenological variation of spring migration. These results have implications for our understanding of carry-over effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advocacy is one of the core functions of public health and is a key tool for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Public health associations play a key role in advocating for the development and implementation of strategies to prevent diseases and promote health and well-being. This study aims to map out the focus of public health advocacy carried out by selected national public health associations over 4 years, between 2018 and 2021, in order to identify gaps and strengths and support associations and professionals in their advocacy efforts. Twelve national public health associations participated in the study. Official policy documents produced between 2018 and 2021 were collected and analysed. The title and summary of the policy documents were examined line by line and coded into the main subject categories and themes. A qualitative thematic analysis was conducted. Policies were assessed from global and regional perspectives. A total of 220 policy documents were analysed. Overall, the largest number of policy documents came from high-income countries and dealt with environmental health and communicable diseases, including COVID-19, with, however, important differences among regions. In the African region, public health advocacy focused mainly on strengthening health systems; Europe and South America were mostly concerned with communicable diseases and pandemic management; and North America and the Western Pacific regions focused primarily on climate change. Limited attention was paid to international health and health as a human right in all regions. Our study showed that, especially in high-income countries, public health associations actively engage in advocacy; however, more effort needs to be devoted to implementing a more international and intersectoral approach at the global level, anchored in health as a human right and aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Several regions of the world have developed capability in providing services on climate information for risk management, but there are still gaps in service delivery due to inadequate information regarding the needs within the regions. This paper highlights the role of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, assesses the needs for some regions and extracts examples of how regional associations could benefit through the provision of better climate services. Problems are given for Africa, South-East Asia, South America, the Pacific and Europe. Different geographical climate features lead to different climate phenomena and in turn determine the type of climate delivery needs for risk management. Short discussions of regional socio-economic factors that shape the needs for climate information provide further context for the unique character of delivery services. Recommendations and future plans follow this assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climatic hazards such as floods and droughts have always been a primary matter of concern for human populations. Severe floods damage settlements, transport networks, and arable land. Although devastating droughts are harmful primarily for agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems, they can also lead to local water supply shortages. Despite significant achievements in science and technology and success stories in environmental management in the 20th century, people still continue to suffer the consequences of climate hazards worldwide. This paper provides an overview of existing practices for coping with floods and droughts, compares strategies in different river basins, and outlines the areas that need improvement. First, the existing protection measures and response strategies against floods and droughts are briefly described. An overview is given of expected climate change and existing coping strategies for floods and droughts in seven case study basins. Four of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, Rhine, and Tisza, are located in Europe the Nile and the Orange are in Africa; and the Amudarya is in Central Asia. Analysis of the coping strategies shows that structural measures exist in all seven river basins, but that nonstructural measures are generally not very extensive and/or advanced. Finally, the success stories in dealing with climatic hazards and lessons learned, taken partly from the seven case study basins and partly from literature, are summarized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The arrival of many species of migrant passerine in the European spring has shifted earlier over recent decades, attributed to climate change and rising temperatures in Europe and west Africa. Few studies have shown the effects of climate change in both hemispheres though many long-distance migrants use wintering grounds which span Africa. The migrants' arrival in Europe thus potentially reflects a combination of the conditions they experience across Africa. We examine if the timing of spring migration of a long-distance migrant, the Willow Warbler, is related to largescale climate indices across Africa and Europe. Methods. Using data from daily mistnetting from 1 April to 15 May in 1982-2017 at Bukowo (Poland, Baltic Sea coast), we developed an Annual Anomaly metric (AA, in days) to estimate how early or late Willow Warblers arrive each spring in relation to their multi-year average pattern. The Willow Warblers' spring passage advanced by 5.4 days over the 36 years. We modelled AA using 14 potential explanatory variables in multiple regression models. The variables were the calendar year and 13 large-scale indices of climate in Africa and Europe averaged over biologically meaningful periods of two to four months during the year before spring migration. Results. The best model explained 59% of the variation in AA with seven variables: Northern Atlantic Oscillation (two periods), Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index, Sahel Precipitation Anomaly, Scandinavian Index and local mean temperatures. The study also confirmed that a long-term trend for Willow Warblers to arrive earlier in spring continued up to 2017. Discussion. Our results suggest that the timing of Willow Warbler spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast is related to a summation of the ecological conditions they had encountered over the previous year during breeding, migration south, wintering in Africa and migration north. We suggest these large-scale climate indices reflect ecological drivers for phenological changes in species with complex migration patterns and discuss the ways in which each of the seven climate indices could be related to spring migration at the Baltic Sea coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9–29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of − 0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed "modes of climate change". This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change in the 21st century due to greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activity represents a looming emergency. Warming of the planet with changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and other environmental impacts are accelerating and contributing to deleterious health consequences including respiratory and cardiovascular effects due to air pollution, vector-borne and infectious diseases, food and water insecurity, and mental health disorders. The economics of climate change are a major consequence resulting from the warming of the planet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across regions was performed, considering six large river basins as case study areas. Three of the basins, namely the Elbe, Guadiana, and Rhine, are located in Europe, the Nile Equatorial Lakes region and the Orange basin are in Africa, and the Amudarya basin is in Central Asia. The evaluation was based mainly on the opinions of policy makers and water management experts in the river basins. The adaptation strategies were evaluated considering the following issues: expected climate change, expected climate change impacts, drivers for development of adaptation strategy, barriers for adaptation, state of the implementation of a range of water management measures, and status of adaptation strategy implementation. The analysis of responses and cross-comparison were performed with rating the responses where possible. According to the expert opinions, there is an understanding in all six regions that climate change is happening. Different climate change impacts are expected in the basins, whereas decreasing annual water availability, and increasing frequency and intensity of droughts (and to a lesser extent floods) are expected in all of them. According to the responses, the two most important drivers for development of adaptation strategy are: climate-related disasters, and national and international policies. The following most important barriers for adaptation to climate change were identified by responders: spatial and temporal uncertainties in climate projections, lack of adequate financial resources, and lack of horizontal cooperation. The evaluated water resources management measures are on a relatively high level in the Elbe and Rhine basins, followed by the Orange and Guadiana. It is lower in the Amudarya basin, and the lowest in the NEL region, where many measures are only at the planning stage. Regarding the level of adaptation strategy implementation, it can be concluded that the adaptation to climate change has started in all basins, but progresses rather slowly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim  To explore the potential impacts of climatic change on species with different migratory strategies using Sylvia warblers breeding in Europe as a ‘model’ species group. Location  Europe and Africa. Methods  Climate response surfaces and generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to model relationships between species recorded breeding and non-breeding ranges and recent climate. Species potential future breeding and non-breeding ranges were simulated for three scenarios of late 21st-century climate. The simulated potential future and present ranges were compared in terms of their relative extent and overlap, as well as their location. The impact of any shifts in potential range location on migration distance were quantified. Results  Potential breeding ranges consistently showed a shift northwards, whereas potential non-breeding ranges showed no consistent directional shift, even when trans-Saharan migrants were considered separately from resident/short-distance or partial migrants. Future potential range extent relative to simulated recent range extent varied considerably among species, although on average range extent increased. Overlap between future and recent simulated range was generally low, averaging < 36% for both breeding and non-breeding ranges. Overlap was consistently less for range-restricted than for widespread species. Migration distance increased generally, by about twice as much in the case of trans-Saharan migrant species than for short-distance migrants. In many cases potential future non-breeding areas were simulated in regions far from the species present non-breeding area, suggesting that new migration strategies and routes may need to be developed in response to climatic change. Main conclusions  Migratory species can be expected to suffer greater negative impacts from climatic change than species that are resident or undertake only short-distance or partial migrations. Trans-Saharan migrants face the greatest potential increases in migration distances, whereas range-restricted species are expected to experience major population reductions because of the limited, or in some cases lack of, overlap between their present and potential future ranges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]