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Nature-Based Solutions concepts and practices are being used worldwide as part of attempts to address societal challenges but have also been criticised for not dealing with deeper transformations needed to face urgent issues including biodiversity loss, climate change and inclusion. In this paper, we explore how an inclusive, integrated and long-sighted approach, emphasising a more radical integration of nature within cities, might support the transformations needed to endure major contemporary challenges. Addressing important emerging critiques of Nature-Based Solutions, we consider the potential of a more incisive form of Nature-Based Thinking (NBT) in cities, based on more holistic perspectives. The paper draws on a reflective and iterative research process that engaged both the research and practice communities through a symposium and a series of futures workshops that together explored the potential of NBT to develop future nature-cities relations in Europe and Latin America. The results of the reflective process suggest that notions of nature with people—not for people— new organisational structures, and the intention and capacity to apply long-term perspectives, are needed when planning for NBS interventions aimed at sustainable urban development. This includes developing a cultural-structural change based on new and inclusive understandings of human–nature relations, and novel governance paradigms that allow cross-sectoral coordination and engagement of local stakeholders beyond formal organisational structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of permanent grasslands (PG) for the conservation of high nature value habitats is often acknowledged, their role in most of the main sustainable food system scenarios published in the last few years is less explicit. In the best case, the place of permanent grassland in scenarios and policy agendas is their conservation; in the worst one, they are simply replaced by afforested land or cropland, considered as a better option when the focus is on GHG emissions only. In this paper, we defend the idea that several misinterpretations of the positive and negative impacts of ruminants, the 'natural' users of PG, explain why ruminants are poorly addressed by most scenarios. Based on the findings of an agroecological scenario for Europe—TYFA, standing for Ten Years For Agroecology—in which extensive permanent grassland and ruminants together play a prominent role for biodiversity conservation, nitrogen cycling and climate change mitigation and adaptation, we call for a research agenda that would better inform the specific role of PG in the provision of ecosystem services—and in particular those that depend on nitrogen management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mediterranean basin is the richest biodiversity region in Europe and a global hotspot of biological diversity. In spite of that, anthropogenic climate change is one of the most serious concerns for nature conservation in this region. One of the climatic threats is represented by shifts of the Mediterranean climate and expansion of the arid climate. In this paper, we present an assessment of changes in the spatial range of the Mediterranean climate in Europe and the conversion into arid climate under different greenhouse gas forcings, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We used 11 simulations in two future 30-year periods of state-of-the-art regional climate models from EURO-CORDEX. Our results indicate that by the end of the century under RCP8.5 the present Mediterranean climate zone is projected to contract by 16%, i.e. an area (~ 157,000 km2) equivalent to half the size of Italy. This compares with the less severe scenario RCP4.5 that projected only a 3% reduction. In addition, the Mediterranean climate zone is projected to expand to other zones by an area equivalent to 24 and 50% of its present extent under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Our study indicates that expansion of the arid zone is almost always the cause for contraction of the Mediterranean zone. Under RCP8.5 the arid zone is projected to increase by more than twice its present extent, equivalent to three times the size of Greece. Results of this study are useful for identifying (1) priority zones for biodiversity conservation, i.e. stable Mediterranean climate zones, (2) zones requiring assisted adaptation, such as establishment of new protected areas, implementation of buffer zones around protected areas and creating ecological corridors connecting stable Mediterranean zones. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper describes a set of integrative scenarios developed in the ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks for biodiversity with tested Methods) project. The ultimate aim of ALARM was to develop and test methods and protocols for the assessment of large-scale environmental risks to biodiversity and to evaluate mitigation options. Scenarios provide a tool for exploring such risks and the policy options to mitigate them; therefore they play a central role within the ALARM project. Methods Three integrative scenarios (liberalization, business as might be usual, sustainability) were developed and illustrated using the econometric model described in a subsequent paper. They are contextualized with projections from climate models and provide the input for model-based assessments of biodiversity trends. Additionally, three shock scenarios were developed (Gulf Stream collapse, peak oil, pandemic) to demonstrate the limits of linear extrapolation. As these extend beyond model capabilities, they are discussed semi-quantitatively based on modelling insights. Results Although the policy impacts on biodiversity are different for different pressures, biomes and species groups, some general trends could be identified. An extension of current EU policies will act as a brake on current trends by slowing down the loss of biodiversity in many cases and in most biomes, but it will be capable of neither halting nor of reversing the loss. Liberalization has the effect of accelerating biodiversity loss across the board, with few exceptions. A coherent sustainability scenario is clearly the most effective at preserving biodiversity, but the variant tested here still does not halt losses in all cases. Main conclusions Current EU policies for protecting biodiversity appear to be insufficient to reverse ongoing losses. Coherent sustainability strategies are effective at conserving biodiversity, but in order to assess losses and then reverse them, measures would need to be introduced that extend beyond the steps tested in the ALARM sustainability scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change, yet are often considered separately. This paper examines the literature for evidence of the interactions of adaptation and mitigation measures across the agriculture, biodiversity, coasts, forests, urban and water sectors, focusing on Europe. It found that often adaptation and mitigation synergies and conflicts were not explicitly mentioned within a sector, let alone between sectors. Most measures, however, were found to have an effect on another sector, resulting in neutral, positive (synergies) or negative (conflicts) interactions within and between sectors. Many positive cross-sectoral interactions involved biodiversity or water and thus these could represent good starting places for the implementation of integrated, cross-sectoral strategies. Previous studies suggest that adaptation and mitigation are undertaken on different time and geographical scales; this study found many local scale measures which could facilitate integration between both adaptation and mitigation. It is important that cross-sectoral interaction of adaptation and mitigation measures are explicitly recognised if they are to be mainstreamed into policy, so that positive outcomes are enhanced and unintended consequences avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver-indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for 'surprises'. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A continually increasing demand for energy and concerns about climate change, greenhouse gas emissions and peak oil have prompted countries to develop policies that promote renewable energy including forest-based bioenergy. In Europe, fuelwood-driven changes in forestry are likely to impact habitat conditions for forest biodiversity. We conducted a systematic literature overview based on 88 papers to synthesize research findings and gaps in knowledge. At the stand scale, but also on a landscape scale, deadwood availability and profile are altered by several practices: whole-tree harvesting and postharvest recovery of logging residues and stumps, for instance. Large-scale fuelwood removal may, on a landscape scale, jeopardize the amounts and diversity of substrate that saproxylic organisms require as food and habitat. Besides, bioenergy-related forest practices also affect nonsaproxylic biodiversity through physical (e.g., soil compaction and disturbance) and chemical changes in soil properties associated with fuelwood removal and increased machine traffic. Moreover, the extended density of internal edges threatens interior forest species populations. Important effects differ substantially between boreal and nemoral forests because of contrasts in management systems, structure of forest ownership, and ecological properties. Developing relevant operational guidelines to partially mitigate ecological damage on biodiversity should be based on our compiled cautionary statements but require further large-scale and long-term research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In democratic societies, citizens have the right to know whether their elected representatives address environmental problems successfully or not. Voters can judge their governments’ economic performance by looking at GDP growth and unemployment rates; equally simple measures for environmental policies face a number of obstacles, inter alia: the complexity of the policy field “environment”, lack and quality of data, absence of scientific and political consensus on the relative importance of sub-fields like climate change, waste, and biodiversity, and the tendency of expert communities to get lost in details rather than communicating the big picture. This paper will define rules and show ways for overcoming these obstacles. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

ABSTRACT Aim This paper identifies socio-economic driving forces of biodiversity change and analyses their political and economic dynamics by modelling socio-economic parts of three scenario storylines developed for the ALARM (assessing large-scale risks for biodiversity with tested methods) project. In the BAMBU (business-as-might-be-usual) scenario policy decisions already made in the European Union (EU) are implemented and enforced, but no additional measures are introduced. The GRAS (growth applied strategy) scenario describes a future world orientated towards economic growth and complete deregulation. And finally, SEDG (sustainable European development goal) is a normative scenario focusing on the achievement of sustainable development. Methods The GINFORS (global inter-industry forecasting system) model is applied to quantify the effects of different sets of policy measures representing the three scenarios. It allows investigation of the inter-relations between socio-economic driving forces and the state of the environment. Results The presented results for the 25 EU countries focus on the following variables: unemployment, material extraction, energy supply and CO2 emissions. The lowest amount of unemployment is in the SEDG scenario, where it steadily decreases from 2005 to 2020. In BAMBU it falls to a level that is also below that of 2005. In GRAS, the number of unemployed people in 2020 is clearly over the value of 2005. The development of total material extraction from 2005 to 2020 is nearly stable in BAMBU, while it clearly increases in GRAS. Only in SEDG is there a reduction in resource use. None of the scenarios achieves a substantial reduction in energy use. However, the development of CO2 emissions shows a decoupling from energy supply. For BAMBU there is a slight decline in CO2 emissions over time, for GRAS they increase but with a slightly smaller growth rate than energy supply. In SEDG the emissions are reduced. The decoupling trends can be explained by a shift to more renewable energy sources in all scenarios, with the highest share in SEDG. Main conclusions The results indicate that a growth-oriented policy design, such as presented in the GRAS scenario, is not compatible with the conservation of biodiversity. Only in the SEDG scenario do the policy measures support the idea of a sustainable development, but in some respects they are still not ambitious enough. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The CORINE land cover (CLC) data derived from satellite images for the period of the 1990s and 2000 (± one year) provide information about land cover changes for a substantial part of Europe. Availability of these data can contribute to new approaches to the assessment of the European landscape, for instance in the context of environmental and economic accounting, diversity, modelling of its properties, etc. These possibilities are given by the fact that land cover reflects the biophysical state of the real landscape. The paper contains information about frequency and areas of CLC and their changes in the period 1990–2000, but above all in the processes – flows (LCF) that take place in the European landscape. Results of statistical analysis and maps demonstrate the frequency and rate (by two values: one above and another below the mean LCF rates) of the following processes: urbanisation (LCF1), intensification of agriculture (LCF2), extensification of agriculture (LCF3), afforestation (LCF4), deforestation (LCF5) and construction of water bodies (LCF6). LCF1 was most conspicuous in the Netherlands (2.1% of total country''s area), LCF2 in Ireland (3.3%), LCF3 in the Czech Republic (over 3.5%), LCF4 in Portugal (over 4%), LCF5 in Portugal (over 3.5%) and LCF6 in the Netherlands and Slovakia (over 0.1%). The overall area of identified land cover changes in 24 European countries in the period 1990–2000 was around 88,000km2 which equals 2.5% of their total area. Details presented concerning the LCF frequency and rate will certainly contribute to the overall awareness and anticipation of possible developments in the European landscape. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The impacts of agricultural land use are far-reaching and extend to areas outside production. This paper provides an overview of the ecological status of agricultural systems across the European Union in the light of recent policy changes. It builds on the previous review of 2001 devoted to the impacts of agricultural intensification in Western Europe. The focus countries are the UK, The Netherlands, Boreal and Baltic countries, Portugal, Hungary and Romania, representing a geographical spread across Europe, but additional reference is made to other countries. Despite many adjustments to agricultural policy, intensification of production in some regions and concurrent abandonment in others remain the major threat to the ecology of agro-ecosystems impairing the state of soil, water and air and reducing biological diversity in agricultural landscapes. The impacts also extend to surrounding terrestrial and aquatic systems through water and aerial contamination and development of agricultural infrastructures (e.g. dams and irrigation channels). Improvements are also documented regionally, such as successful support of farmland species, and improved condition of watercourses and landscapes. This was attributed to agricultural policy targeted at the environment, improved environmental legislation, and new market opportunities. Research into ecosystem services associated with agriculture may provide further pressure to develop policy that is targeted at their continuous provisioning, fostering motivation of land managers to continue to protect and enhance them. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]