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A large range of climate change impacts is expected during the twenty-first century in vulnerable regions such as West Africa, where local populations largely rely on livestock systems as their main food production and income source. As climate change threatens livestock systems in various ways, here we assess how regional livestock could be exposed to cumulated climate-related stressors in the future. Using the world's largest multi-model climate impacts simulations database ISIMIP, we find that a large part of West Africa will experience at least 5–6 cumulated multiple climate stressors before the 2030s, including amplified severe heat stress conditions and flood risks. Consequently, about 30% of the current total regional livestock could be exposed to these cumulated stressors, with sheep and goat as the most affected species. This paper brings new quantifications that may help policy makers to prioritize decisions that could prepare local populations to face multiple climate-related impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time of emergence (TOE) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. TOE assessment is particularly relevant in West Africa, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. In this paper, the TOE of precipitation change in West Africa is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. In West Sahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028–2052. In East Sahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. Results do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. Although uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of TOE locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in West Africa at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]