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In this paper, NeuralProphet (NP), an explainable hybrid modular framework, enhances the forecasting performance of pandemics by adding two neural network modules; auto-regressor (AR) and lagged-regressor (LR). An advanced deep auto-regressor neural network (Deep-AR-Net) model is employed to implement these two modules. The enhanced NP is optimized via AdamW and Huber loss function to perform multivariate multi-step forecasting contrast to Prophet. The models are validated with COVID-19 time-series datasets. The NP's efficiency is studied component-wise for a long-term forecast for India and an overall reduction of 60.36% and individually 34.7% by AR-module, 53.4% by LR-module in MASE compared to Prophet. The Deep-AR-Net model reduces the forecasting error of NP for all five countries, on average, by 49.21% and 46.07% for short-and-long-term, respectively. The visualizations confirm that forecasting curves are closer to the actual cases but significantly different from Prophet. Hence, it can develop a real-time decision-making system for highly infectious diseases., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

While many studies have documented adverse impact of multiple chronic conditions or multimorbidity on COVID-19 outcomes in patients, there is scarcity of report on how physicians managed these patients. We investigated the experiences and challenges of clinicians in managing patients with multimorbidity throughout the COVID-19 pandemic in Odisha state, India. To understand the factors influencing illness management and the adaptive responses of physicians alongside the evolving pandemic, we followed a longitudinal qualitative study design. Twenty-three physicians comprising general practitioners, specialists, and intensivists, were telephonically interviewed in-depth. Saldana's longitudinal qualitative data analysis method was employed for data analysis. COVID-19 pandemic initially diverted the attention of health systems, resulting in reduced care. With time, the physicians overcame fear, anxiety, and feelings of vulnerability to COVID-19 and started prioritising patients with multimorbidity for treatment and vaccination. All physicians recommended teleconsultation and digital health records to benefit chronic illness care during future public health crises. The findings underscore the transformative potential of physician resilience and adaptation during the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing patients with multimorbidity, incorporating teleconsultation, and implementing digital health records in healthcare systems to enhance chronic illness care and preparedness for future public health crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]