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In order to reveal the relationship between new urbanization and carbon emission to provide reference opinions for the construction of low-carbon urbanization, an evaluation system between new urbanization and carbon emission was constructed. Then their matching degree relationship was analyzed by coupling coordination degree model based on the data from 2012 to 2021 in Anhui Province, and their development trend from 2023 to 2032 was predicted by gray prediction model. The results show that: (1) New urbanization and carbon emission have the co-trend effect, and the consistency of core impact factors is relatively significant. Among them, the level of new urbanization increases from 0.058 in 2012 to 0.699 in 2021 and carbon emission development increases from 0.023 in 2012 to 0.165 in 2021, which both showing an upward trend. Meanwhile, social urbanization and population carbon emission are the core influencing factors. (2) The coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and carbon emission is low, but the synergy trend is optimistic and there is a large room for improvement. Among them, the coupling coordination coefficient of the coupling system rises from 0.136 in 2012 to 1.412 in 2021 (antagonistic phase), and then reaches 0.820 by 2032 (highly coordinated phase) by forecast. It shows that their current development is unbalanced, but the development trend is good, and there is a chance for improvement. This paper deepens the understanding of the logical correlation between new urbanization and carbon emission, and the following views are formed: (1) Low-carbon development is still the mainstream of new urbanization; (2) The coordination development of new urbanization and carbon emission reduction should be strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing CO2 emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China's urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China's urbanization rate is expected to reach 76.41% in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrestrial ecosystem productivity and foundation of regional ecosystem services have been significantly influenced by recent urbanization processes. This study assesses the changes in terrestrial ecosystem productivity in Jiangsu from the years of 2000 to 2015 in response to the urbanization. A linear model that incorporates the traditional equalization method is proposed to improve the estimation accuracy of net primary productivity (NPP) loss. Results revealed that the land area of urban construction expanded rapidly during the research period to encompass an area of 8672.8 km2. The rate of expansion was highest during 2005–2010. Additionally, the expansion rate of urban construction land was considerably higher in southern Jiangsu compared to the northern areas. The NPP exhibited a rising tendency from the year of 2000 to 2015, and varied from 33.30 to 40.23 Tg C/y. It was higher in the central parts, which include the cities of Yancheng and Nantong. The increase in urban construction land has resulted in a significant reduction in the terrestrial ecosystem productivity, i.e. a cumulative NPP loss of 2.55–2.88 Tg C during the research period. The NPP losses due to the conversion from cropland to constrction land were the highest, followed by the wetland. The work in this paper indicates that the rate of future productivity losses in terrestrial ecosystem in northern Jiangsu would be faster than the southern areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]