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The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a serious global public health crisis. A major control challenge is its multiple transmission modes. This paper aims to simulate the transmission patterns of ZIKV using a dynamic process-based epidemiological model written in ordinary differential equations, which incorporates the human-to-mosquito infection by bites and sewage, mosquito-to-human infection by bites, and human-to-human infection by sex. Mathematical analyses are carried out to calculate the basic reproduction number and backward bifurcation, and prove the existence and stability of the equilibria. The model is validated with infection data by applying it to the 2015–2016 ZIKV epidemic in Brazil. The results indicate that the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.13, in which the contributions by mosquito bite, sex and sewage account for 85.7%, 3.5% and 10.8%, respectively. This number and the morbidity rate are most sensitive to parameters related to mosquito ecology, rather than asymptomatic or human-to-human transmission. Multiple transmission routes and suitable temperature exacerbate ZIKV infection in Brazil, and the vast majority of human infection cases were prevented by the intervention implemented. These findings may provide new insights to improve the risk assessment of ZIKV infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Open water transposition channels in hot and arid regions, like those in the São Francisco River Integration Project (PISF) in Brazil, suffer significant water losses through evaporation. This paper proposes covering these channels with photovoltaic (PV) panels to reduce evaporation while simultaneously generating clean energy. The research aims to quantify water savings and energy generation potential across all channel lengths and assess whether the generated solar power can substitute grid electricity for powering the transposition pumps during peak hours, thereby enhancing energy efficiency. This study analyzed the state-of-the-art of PV generation and calculated their solar potential. Identified the specific characteristics of PISF channels and watercourses considering the regional geography, meteorology, irradiation, and social peculiarities. And, finally, assessed the feasibility of covering the watercourses with solar panels. The results reveal that covering all current PISF channels with PV panels could save up to 25,000 cubic meters of water per day, significantly contributing to water security and improving the quality of life for the local population. Additionally, the project could generate 1200 gigawatt-hours of electricity annually, meeting the energy demands of the transposition pumps during peak hours and promoting energy efficiency within the project. This research paves the way for utilizing PV technology to address water scarcity challenges and enhance the sustainability of water infrastructure projects in arid regions worldwide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries have pledged to different national and international environmental agreements, most prominently the climate change mitigation targets of the Paris Agreement. Accounting for carbon stocks and flows (fluxes) is essential for countries that have recently adopted the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - ecosystem accounting framework (UNSEEA) as a global statistical standard. In this paper, we analyze how spatial carbon fluxes can be used in support of the UNSEEA carbon accounts in five case countries with available in-situ data. Using global multi-date biomass map products and other remotely sensed data, we mapped the 2010–2018 carbon fluxes in Brazil, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Sweden and the USA using National Forest Inventory (NFI) and local biomass maps from airborne LiDAR as reference data. We identified areas that are unsupported by the reference data within environmental feature space (6–47% of vegetated country area); cross-validated an ensemble machine learning (RMSE=9–39 Mg C ha - 1 and R 2 =0.16–0.71) used to map carbon fluxes with prediction intervals; and assessed spatially correlated residuals (<5 km) before aggregating carbon fluxes from 1-ha pixels to UNSEEA forest classes. The resulting carbon accounting tables revealed the net carbon sequestration in natural broadleaved forests. Both in plantations and in other woody vegetation ecosystems, emissions exceeded sequestration. Overall, our estimates align with FAO-Forest Resource Assessment and national studies with the largest deviations in Brazil and USA. These two countries used highly clustered reference data, where clustering caused uncertainty given the need to extrapolate to under-sampled areas. We finally provide recommendations to mitigate the effect of under-sampling and to better account for the uncertainties once carbon stocks and flows need to be aggregated in relatively smaller countries. These actions are timely given the global initiatives that aim to upscale UNSEEA carbon accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries have pledged to different national and international environmental agreements, most prominently the climate change mitigation targets of the Paris Agreement. Accounting for carbon stocks and flows (fluxes) is essential for countries that have recently adopted the United Nations System of Environmental-Economic Accounting - ecosystem accounting framework (UNSEEA) as a global statistical standard. In this paper, we analyze how spatial carbon fluxes can be used in support of the UNSEEA carbon accounts in five case countries with available in-situ data. Using global multi-date biomass map products and other remotely sensed data, we mapped the 2010–2018 carbon fluxes in Brazil, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Sweden and the USA using National Forest Inventory (NFI) and local biomass maps from airborne LiDAR as reference data. We identified areas that are unsupported by the reference data within environmental feature space (6–47% of vegetated country area); cross-validated an ensemble machine learning (RMSE=9–39 Mg C ha - 1 and R 2 =0.16–0.71) used to map carbon fluxes with prediction intervals; and assessed spatially correlated residuals (<5 km) before aggregating carbon fluxes from 1-ha pixels to UNSEEA forest classes. The resulting carbon accounting tables revealed the net carbon sequestration in natural broadleaved forests. Both in plantations and in other woody vegetation ecosystems, emissions exceeded sequestration. Overall, our estimates align with FAO-Forest Resource Assessment and national studies with the largest deviations in Brazil and USA. These two countries used highly clustered reference data, where clustering caused uncertainty given the need to extrapolate to under-sampled areas. We finally provide recommendations to mitigate the effect of under-sampling and to better account for the uncertainties once carbon stocks and flows need to be aggregated in relatively smaller countries. These actions are timely given the global initiatives that aim to upscale UNSEEA carbon accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A crucial aspect analysed during the last years, aiming to improve sugarcane production, is the impact of climate change on sugarcane productivity. One of the strategies to mitigate climate change's impact on sugarcane yield is the development of new varieties known to positively affect crop production. This paper analysed how climate change impacts sugarcane production regarding the different planted varieties. Data regarding sugarcane harvest were collected from a cooperative in the south of Goiás state—Brazil, the second biggest national sugarcane producer. Results indicate that climate impact on sugarcane yield is irrelevant when controlling for different varieties. Considering the results presented in this work, the Brazilian government should keep the incentives for the development of new sugarcane varieties and, at the same time, spur sugarcane producers to use the new sugarcane varieties. The results imply that if the variety is correctly chosen, sugarcane can be produced without harming the environment, contributing to reaching SDG 15. Moreover, it is less probable that an adverse climatic event will destroy the planted area, preventing sugarcane producers from severe loss and contributing to achieving SDGs number 1 and 2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eucalyptus plantations around the world have been largely used by the paper industry. Optimizing the management of resources is a common practice in this highly competitive industry and new forest growth models may help to understand the impact of climate change on the decisions of the optimization processes. Current optimized management plans use empirical equations to predict future forest stands growth, and it is currently impractical to replace these empirical equations with physiological models due to data input requirements. In this paper, we present a different approach, by first carrying out a preliminary assessment with the process-based physiological model 3PG to evaluate the growth of Eucalyptus stands under climate change predictions. The information supplied by 3PG was then injected as a modifier in the projected yield that feeds the management plan optimizer allowing the interpretation of climate change impacts on the management plan. Modelling results show that although a general increase of rain with climate change is predicted, the distribution throughout the year will not favor the tree growth. On the contrary, rain will increase when it is less needed (summer) and decrease when it is most needed (winter), decreasing forest stand productivity between 3 and 5%, depending on the region and soil. Evaluation of the current optimized plan that kept constant the relation between wood price/cellulose ton shows a variation in different strategic management options and an overall increase of costs in owned areas between 2 and 4%, and a decrease of cumulated net present value, initially at 15% with later stabilization at 6–8%. This is a basic comparison to observe climate change effects; nevertheless, it provides insights into how the entire decision-making process may change due to a reduction in biomass production under future climate scenarios. This work demonstrates the use of physiological models to extract information that could be merged with existing and already implemented empirical models. The methodology may also be considered a preliminary alternative to the complete replacement of empirical models by physiological models. Our approach allows some insight into forest responses to different future climate conditions, something which empirical models are not designed for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prevention of mother-to-child transmission programs have been one of the hallmarks of success in the fight against HIV/AIDS. In Brazil, access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) during pregnancy has increased, leading to a reduction in new infections among children. Currently, lifelong ART is available to all pregnant, however yet challenges remain in eliminating mother-to-child transmission. In this paper, we focus on the role of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to analyse blood plasma samples of pregnant women with HIV infection to differentiate pregnant women without HIV infection. Seventy-seven samples (39 HIV-infected patient and 38 healthy control samples) were analysed. Multivariate classification of resultant NIR spectra facilitated diagnostic segregation of both sample categories in a fast and non-destructive fashion, generating good accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. This method is simple and low-cost, and can be easily adapted to point-of-care screening, which can be essential to monitor pregnancy risks in remote locations or in the developing world. Therefore, it opens a new perspective to investigate vertical transmission (VT). The approach described here, can be useful for the identification and exploration of VT under various pathophysiological conditions of maternal HIV. These findings demonstrate, for the first time, the potential of NIR spectroscopy combined with multivariate analysis as a screening tool for fast and low-cost HIV detection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Brazilian government's decision to open the Amazon biome to sugarcane expansion reignited EU concerns regarding the sustainability of Brazil's sugar sector, hindering the ratification of the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. Meanwhile, in the EU, certain conventional biofuels face stricter controls, whilst uncertainty surrounding the commercialisation of more sustainable advanced-biofuels renders bioethanol as a short- to medium-term fix. This paper examines Brazil's land-use changes and associated greenhouse gas emissions arising from an EU driven ethanol import policy and projections for other 13 biocommodities. Results suggest that Brazil's sugarcane could satisfy growing ethanol demand and comply with EU environmental criteria, since almost all sugarcane expansion is expected to occur on long-established pasturelands in the South and Midwest. However, expansion of sugarcane is also driven by competition for viable lands with other relevant commodities, mainly soy and beef. As a result, deforestation trends in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes linked to soy and beef production could jeopardize Brazil's contribution to the Paris agreement with an additional 1 ± 0.3 billion CO2eq tonnes above its First NDC target by 2030. Trade talks with a narrow focus on a single commodity could thus risk unsustainable outcomes, calling for systemic sustainability benchmarks, should the deal be ratified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lowland South America has long been a battle-ground between European colonization and indigenous survival. Initial waves of European colonization brought disease epidemics, slavery, and violence that had catastrophic impacts on indigenous cultures. In this paper we focus on the demography of 238 surviving populations in Brazil. We use longitudinal censuses from all known indigenous Brazilian societies to quantify three demographic metrics: 1) effects of European contact on indigenous populations; 2) empirical estimates of minimum viable population sizes; and 3) estimates of post-contact population growth rates. We use this information to conduct population viability analysis (PVA). Our results show that all surviving populations suffered extensive mortality during, and shortly after, contact. However, most surviving populations exhibit positive growth rates within the first decade post-contact. Our findings paint a positive demographic outlook for these indigenous populations, though long-term survival remains subject to powerful externalities, including politics, economics, and the pervasive illegal exploitation of indigenous lands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brazil is one of the world's biggest emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Fire foci across the country contributes to these emissions and compromises emission reduction targets pledged by Brazil under the Paris Agreement. In this paper, we quantify fire foci, burned areas, and carbon emissions in all Brazilian biomes (i.e., Amazon, Cerrado, Caatinga, Atlantic Forest, Pantanal and Pampa). We analyzed these variables using cluster analysis and non-parametric statistics to predict carbon and CO2 emissions for the next decade. Our results showed no increase in the number of fire foci and carbon emissions for the evaluated time series, whereby the highest emissions occur and will persist in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. The Atlantic Forest, Pantanal, Caatinga and Pampa biomes had low emissions compared to the Amazon and Cerrado. Based on 2030 projections, the sum of emissions from fire foci in the six Brazilian biomes will exceed 5.7 Gt CO2, compromising the national GHG reduction targets. To reduce GHG emissions, Brazil will need to control deforestation induced by the expansion of the agricultural frontier in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. This can only be achieved through significant political effort involving the government, entrepreneurs and society as a collective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the frequency and structure of first-cousin marriages, by far the most important and frequent type of consanguineous mating in human populations. Based on the analysis of large amounts of data from the world literature and from large Brazilian samples recently collected, we suggest some explanations for the asymmetry of sexes among the parental sibs of first-cousin marriages. We suggest also a simple manner to correct the method that uses population surnames to assess the different Wright fixation indexes FIS, FST and FIT taking into account not only alternative methods of surname transmission, but also the asymmetries that are almost always observed in the distribution of sexes among the parental sibs of first-cousins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]