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Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large “anticipatory system”, in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991). The proposed scheme is ambitiously intended to turn an intricate issue into a complex but structured problem that is to say, to make such complexity clear and manageable. This framework emerges from concepts borrowed from different scientific fields (including future studies and system dynamics) and its background lies in a simple quantitative literature overview, relying upon a broad level of analysis. The proposed framework will assist researchers and policy makers in thinking of CCP in terms of an anticipatory system, and in disentangling its interrelated (and sometimes intricate) aspects. In point of fact, several strategic questions related to CCP were not subjected to an adequate transdisciplinary discussion: what are the interplays between physical processes and social-political interventions, who is the observer (what he/she is looking for), and which paradigm is being used (or who defines the desirable future). The proposed scheme allows to structure such various topics in an arrangement which is easier to communicate, highlighting the linkages in between, and making them intelligible and open to verification and discussion. Furthermore, ideally developments will help scientists and policy makers address the strategic gaps between the evidence-based climatological assessments and the plurality of possible answers as applied to the geopolitical contingencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO2 concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper reviews current understanding of the sources and sinks of ozone in the troposphere, recent studies of long-term trends, and the factors which have to be taken into consideration when constructing and interpreting future models of ozone concentration. The factors controlling surface O3 concentrations are discussed initially to provide a basis for the ensuing discussion, followed by a summary of the evidence for recent trends in ground-level ozone concentrations, i.e. over the past 3 decades, which have shown a significant increase in the annual average in ‘background’ air typical of the unpolluted northern hemisphere. Closer to precursor sources, although urban winter concentrations have increased, rural peak spring and summer concentrations during ozone ‘episodes’ have decreased markedly in response to emissions reductions. In order to determine whether such trends are meaningful, the statistical techniques for determining temporal trends are reviewed. The possible causes of long-term trends in ozone are then discussed, with particular reference to the use of chemistry-transport models to interpret past trends. Such models are also used to make predictions of future trends in surface ozone concentrations, but few are comprehensive in integrating future climate changes with changes in land use and in emissions of ozone precursors. Guidance is given on the likely effects of climate/precursor/chemistry interactions so that model predictions can be judged. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]