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Climate change affects plant species, especially those with restricted ecology and distribution. Centaurium erythraea is a flowering plant species in the Gentianaceae family, native to Europe, with its centre of diversity in the Mediterranean and western Asia. Of the 11 infraspecific taxa distinct from C. erythraea, only two are common in Europe: C. erythraea subsp. erythraea (widespread nominal subspecies) and C. erythraea subsp. majus (mainly distributed in the western Mediterranean region). Freshly collected samples of 36 plants from 11 localities across Lower Silesia (Central Europe) were utilised for taxonomic and genetic analysis. The barcode sequences of chloroplast DNA region matK were used for molecular analysis. Data deposited in GenBank was also used. Five haplotypes were identified among the analysed specimens. Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques were applied to predict the current and future (short- and long-term projections) potential distribution of C. erythraea subsp. majus and to identify the most influential climatic factors. Despite the typical Mediterranean distribution, the presence of C. erythraea subsp. majus outside its natural range in SW Poland has been confirmed by morphological and genetic studies. The mean monthly precipitation of the wettest quarter and the mean daily temperatures of the warmest quarter were identified as the key climatic factors. Short-term scenarios suggest that C. erythraea subsp. majus will maintain most of its current suitable habitats and potentially expand into the lowlands of Central Europe. However, long-term projections indicate a potential reduction in its currently suitable areas, especially in the southern parts of its range, with a possible expansion into north-western Europe. The results of these studies provide clear evidence of the impact of ongoing climate change on species range changes. These findings suggest that climate change may create new opportunities for Mediterranean species to spread to new regions, using C. erythraea subsp. majus as an example., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

In recent years, the oak lace bug, Corythucha arcuata, has emerged as a significant threat to European oak forests. This species, native to North America, has in the last two decades rapidly extended its range in Europe, raising concerns about its potential impact on the continent's invaluable oak populations. To address this growing concern, we conducted an extensive study to assess the distribution, colonization patterns, and potential ecological niche of the oak lace bug in Europe. We gathered 1792 unique presence coordinates from 21 Eurasian countries, utilizing diverse sources such as research observations, citizen science initiatives, GBIF database, and social media reports. To delineate the realized niche and future distribution, we employed an ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM) framework. Two future greenhouse gas scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were considered across three-time intervals (2021-2040, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) to project and evaluate the species' potential distribution in the future. Our analysis revealed that significant hotspots rich in host species occurrence for this invasive insect remain uninvaded so far, even within its suitable habitat. Furthermore, the native ranges of Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) and Hungarian oak (Quercus frainetto L.) species offer entirely suitable environments for the oak lace bug. In contrast, the pedunculate oak and sessile oak distribution ranges currently show only 40 % and 50 % suitability for colonization, respectively. However, our predictive models indicate a significant transformation in the habitat suitability of the oak lace bug, with suitability for these two oak species increasing by up to 90 %. This shift underlines an evolving landscape where the oak lace bug may exploit more of its available habitats than initially expected. It emphasises the pressing need for proactive measures to manage and stop its expanding presence, which may lead to a harmful impact on the oak population across the European landscape., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Forests are expected to be strongly affected by modifications in climate and disturbance regimes, threatening their ability to sustain the provision of essential services. Promoting drought-tolerant species or functionally diverse stands have recently emerged as management options to cope with global change. Our study aimed at evaluating the impact of contrasting stand-level management scenarios on the resilience of temperate forests in eastern North America and central-western Europe using the individual process-based model HETEROFOR. We simulated the evolution of eight stands over 100 years under a future extreme climate according to four management scenarios (business as usual - BAU; climate change adaptation - CC; functional diversity approach - FD; no management - NM) while facing multiple disturbances, resulting in a total of 160 simulations. We found that FD demonstrated the greatest resilience regarding transpiration and tree biomass, followed by CC and then BAU, while these three scenarios were equivalent concerning the net primary production. These results were however dependent on forest type: increasing functional diversity was a powerful option to increase the resilience of coniferous plantations whereas no clear differences between BAU and adaptive management scenarios were detected in broadleaved and mixed stands. The FD promoted a higher level of tree species diversity than any other scenario, and all scenarios of management were similar regarding the amount of harvested wood. The NM always showed the lowest resilience, demonstrating that forest management could be an important tool to mitigate adverse effects of global change. Our study highlighted that tree-level process-based models are a relevant tool to identify suitable management options for adapting forests to global change provided that model limitations are considered, and that alternative management options, particularly those based on functional diversity, are promising and should be promoted from now on., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

Recent hot droughts have caused tree vitality decline and increased mortality in many forest regions on earth. Most of Central Europe's important timber species have suffered from the extreme 2018/2019 hot drought, confronting foresters with difficult questions about the choice of more drought- and heat-resistant tree species. We compared the growth dynamics of European beech, sessile oak, Scots pine and Douglas fir in a warmer and a cooler lowland region of Germany to explore the adaptive potential of the four species to climate warming (24 forest stands). The basal area increment (BAI) of the two conifers has declined since about 1990-2010 in both regions, and that of beech in the warmer region, while oak showed positive BAI trends. A 2 °C difference in mean temperatures and a higher frequency of hot days (temperature maximum >30 °C) resulted in greater sensitivity to a negative climatic water balance in beech and oak, and elevated sensitivity to summer heat in Douglas fir and pine. This suggests to include hot days in climate-growth analyses. Negative pointer years were closely related to dry years. Nevertheless, all species showed growth recovery within one to three years. We conclude that all four species are sensitive to a deteriorating climatic water balance and hot temperatures, and have so far not been able to successfully acclimate to the warmer climate, with especially Douglas and beech, but also Scots pine, being vulnerable to a warming and drying climate., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Invasive alien plants (IAPs) substantially affect the native biodiversity, agriculture, industry, and human health worldwide. Ambrosia (ragweed) species, which are major IAPs globally, produce a significant impact on human health and the natural environment. In particular, invasion of A. artemisiifolia, A. psilostachya, and A. trifida in non-native continents is more extensive and severe than that of other species. Here, we used biomod2 ensemble model based on environmental and species occurrence data to predict the potential geographical distribution, overlapping geographical distribution areas, and the ecological niche dynamics of these three ragweeds and further explored the environmental variables shaping the observed patterns to assess the impact of these IAPs on the natural environment and public health. The ecological niche has shifted in the invasive area compared with that in the native area, which increased the invasion risk of three Ambrosia species during the invasion process in the world. The potential geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species are primarily distributed in Asia, North America, and Europe, and are expected to increase under four representative concentration pathways in the 2050s. The centers of potential geographical distributions of the three Ambrosia species showed a tendency to shift poleward from the current time to the 2050s. Bioclimatic variables and the human influence index were more significant in shaping these patterns than other factors. In brief, climate change has facilitated the expansion of the geographical distribution and overlapping geographical distribution areas of the three Ambrosia species. Ecomanagement and cross-country management strategies are warranted to mitigate the future effects of the expansion of these ragweed species worldwide in the Anthropocene on the natural environment and public health., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Magallana gigas is a naturalized species on the north coast of Galicia (Rías Altas, Northwest Iberian Peninsula), where it was unintentionally introduced. In recent decades, a greater abundance of M. gigas has been observed on the Galician coast, expanding towards the south, reaching the Artabro Gulf (Rías Centrales, NW Galician coast), probably due to ocean warming. Although this species has been cultivated in the Rías Baixas since the early 1990s and spawning has been reported, recruitment was never observed, which is likely due to the cold water upwelled during the spawning months. The future rise in seawater temperature may favor the naturalization of the non-indigenous species M. gigas southwards, in the Rías Baixas. Thermally, the Ría de Arousa seems to be the most favorable estuary for the future settlement of M. gigas, which may occur in the next decades. The extent of thermally favorable zones within estuaries is projected to increase rapidly by mid-century, and reaching 100 % of the estuarine area by the end of the century. As has already happened in other areas of the world, the expansion and naturalization of the Pacific oyster on the Galician coast will likely affect the native communities and economic activities, making it necessary to implement monitoring and management strategies to mitigate its effect., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Climate change can lead to the simultaneous occurrence of extreme droughts and heat waves increasing the frequency of compound events with unknown impacts on forests. Here we use two independent datasets, a compiled database of tree drought mortality events and the ICP-Forest level I plots, to study the impacts of the simultaneous occurrence of hot summers, with elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD), and dry years on forest defoliation and mortality across Europe. We focused on tree drought mortality and background mortality rates, and we studied their co-occurrence with compound events of hot summers and dry years. In total, 143 out of 310 mortality events across Europe, i.e. 46% of cases, corresponded with rare compound events characterized by hot summers and dry years. Over the past decades, summer temperature increased in most sites and severe droughts resulted in compound events not observed before the 1980s. From the ICP-Forest plots we identified 291 (1718 trees) and 61 plots (128 trees) where severe defoliation and mortality, respectively, were caused by drought. The analyses of these events showed that 34% and 27% of the defoliation and mortality cases corresponded with rare compound climate events, respectively. Background mortality rates across Europe in the period 1993-2013 presented higher values in regions where summer temperature and VPD more steeply rose, where drought frequency increased. The steady increase in summer temperatures and VPD in Southern and Eastern Europe may favor the occurrence of compound events of hot summers and dry conditions. Giving that both, local and intense tree drought mortality events and background forest mortality rates, are linked to such compound events we can expect an increase in forest drought mortality in these European regions over the next decades., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Present-day disturbances are transforming European forest landscapes, and their legacies determine the vulnerability and resilience of the emergent forest generation. To understand these legacy effects, we investigated the resilience of the aboveground forest biomass (B abg ) to a sequence of disturbances affecting the forest in different recovery phases from the initial large-scale impact. We used the model iLand to simulate windthrows that affected 13-24% of the B abg in a Central European forest landscape. An additional wind event was simulated 20, 40, 60, or 80 years after the initial impact (i.e., sequences of two windthrows were defined). Each windthrow triggered an outbreak of bark beetles that interacted with the recovery processes. We evaluated the resistance of the B abg to and recovery after the impact. Random Forest models were used to identify factors influencing resilience. We found that B abg resistance was the lowest 20 years after the initial impact when the increased proportion of emergent wind-exposed forest edges prevailed the disturbance-dampening effect of reduced biomass levels and increased landscape heterogeneity. This forest had a remarkably high recovery rate and reached the pre-disturbance B abg within 28 years. The forest exhibited a higher resistance and a slower recovery rate in the more advanced recovery phases, reaching the pre-disturbance B abg within 60-80 years. The recovery was enhanced by higher levels of alpha and beta diversity. Under elevated air temperature, the bark beetle outbreak triggered by windthrow delayed the recovery. However, the positive effect of increased temperature on forest productivity caused the recovery rate to be higher under the warming scenario than under the reference climate. We conclude that resilience is not a static property, but its magnitude and drivers vary in time, depending on vegetation feedbacks, interactions between disturbances, and climate. Understanding these mechanisms is an essential step towards the operationalization of resilience-oriented stewardship., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Warmer climate and more frequent extreme droughts will pose major threats to forest ecosystems. Past demography processes due to post-glacial recolonization and adaptation to local environmental conditions are among the main contributors to genetic differentiation processes among provenances. Assessing the intra-specific variability of tree growth responses to such changes is crucial to explore a species' potential to cope with climate warming. We combined growth-related traits derived from tree-ring width series with neutral genetic information of 18 European provenances of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) growing in two common garden experiments in Switzerland. Analyses based on neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms revealed that the studied provenances grouped into three longitudinal clusters. These three genetic clusters showed differences in growth traits (height and DBH), with the provenances from the eastern cluster exhibiting the highest growth. The Pyrenees cluster showed significantly lower recovery and resilience to the extreme drought of 2003 as well as lower values of growth autocorrelation. Q ST -F ST and correlation analyses with climate of provenance origin suggest that the differences among provenances found in some traits result from natural selection. Our study suggests that the last post-glacial re-colonization and natural selection are the major drivers explaining the intra-specific variability in growth of silver fir across Europe. These findings highlight the importance of combining dendroecology and genetic analyses on fitness-related traits to assess the potential of a species to cope with global environmental change and provide insights to support assisted gene flow to ensure the persistence of the species in European forests., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Pollinator biodiversity loss occurs at unprecedented rates globally, with particularly sharp declines documented in the North Temperate Zone. There is currently no consensus on the main drivers of the decline. Although climate change is expected to drive biodiversity loss in the future, current warming is often suggested to have positive impacts on pollinator assemblages in higher latitudes. Consequently, pollinator conservation initiatives in Europe and the USA tend to lack climate adaptation initiatives, an omission of which may be risky if climate change has significant negative impacts on pollinators. To gain an understanding of the impacts of climate change on pollinator biodiversity in the Northern Hemisphere, we conducted a literature review on genetic, species and community level diversity. Our findings suggest that global heating most likely causes homogenization of pollinator assemblages at all levels of pollinator biodiversity, making them less resilient to future stochasticity. Aspects of biodiversity that are rarely measured (e.g. genetic diversity, β-diversity, species evenness) tend to be most affected, while some dimensions of climate change, such as fluctuations in winter weather conditions, changes in the length of the vegetational season and increased frequency of extreme weather events, that seldom receive attention in empirical studies, tend to be particularly detrimental to pollinators. Negative effects of global heating on pollinator biodiversity are most likely exacerbated by homogenous and fragmented landscapes, widespread across Europe and the US, which limit opportunities for range-shifts and reduce micro-climatic buffering. This suggests the need for conservation initiatives to focus on increasing landscape connectivity and heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Climate change is causing extensive alterations to ecosystems globally, with some more vulnerable than others. Alpine ecosystems, characterised by low-temperatures and cryophilic vegetation, provide ecosystems services for billions of people but are considered among the most susceptible to climate change. Therefore, it is timely to review research on climate change on alpine vegetation including assessing trends, topics, themes and gaps. Using a multicomponent bibliometric approach, we extracted bibliometric metadata from 3143 publications identified by searching titles, keywords and abstracts for research on 'climate change' and 'alpine vegetation' from Scopus and Web of Science. While primarily focusing on 'alpine vegetation', some literature that also assessed vegetation below the treeline was captured. There has been an exponential increase in research over 50 years, greater engagement and diversification in who does research, and where it is published and conducted, with increasing focus beyond Europe, particularly in China. Content analysis of titles, keywords and abstracts revealed that most of the research has focused on alpine grasslands but there have been relatively few publications that examine specialist vegetation communities such as snowbeds, subnival vegetation and fellfields. Important themes emerged from analysis of keywords, including treelines and vegetation dynamics, biodiversity, the Tibetan Plateau as well as grasslands and meadows. Traditional ecological monitoring techniques were important early on, but remote sensing has become the primary method for assessment. A key book on alpine plants, the IPCC reports and a few papers in leading journals underpin much of the research. Overall, research on this topic is increasing, with new methods and directions but thematic and geographical gaps remain particularly for research on extreme climatic events, and research in South America, in part due to limited capacity for research on these rare but valuable ecosystems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Forests have an important regulating function on water runoff and the occurrence of shallow landslides. Their structure and composition directly influence the risk of hydrogeomorphic processes, like floods with high sediment transport or debris flows. Climate change is substantially altering forest ecosystems, and for Central Europe an increase in natural disturbances from wind and insect outbreaks is expected for the future. How such changes impact the regulating function of forest ecosystems remains unclear. By combining methods from forestry, hydrology and geotechnical engineering we investigated possible effects of changing climate and disturbance regimes on shallow landslides. We simulated forest landscapes in two headwater catchments in the Eastern Alps of Austria under four different future climate scenarios over 200 years. Our results indicate that climate-mediated changes in forest dynamics can substantially alter the protective function of forest ecosystems. Climate change generally increased landslide risk in our simulations. Only when future warming coincided with drying landslide risk decreased relative to historic conditions. In depth analyses showed that an important driver of future landslide risk was the simulated vegetation composition. Trajectories away from flat rooting Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests currently dominating the system towards an increasing proportion of tree species with heart and taproot systems, increased root cohesion and reduced the soil volume mobilized in landslides. Natural disturbances generally reduced landslide risk in our simulations, with the positive effect of accelerated tree species change and increasing root cohesion outweighing a potential negative effect of disturbances on the water cycle. We conclude that while the efficacy of green infrastructure such as protective forests could be substantially reduced by climate change, such systems also have a strong inherent ability to adapt to changing conditions. Forest management should foster this adaptive capacity to strengthen the protective function of forests also under changing environmental conditions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Beef production in the Lake Taupō region of New Zealand (NZ) is regulated for nitrogen (N) leaching. The objectives of this study were to 1) evaluate the implications of nitrogen emission limitations on eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef through its life cycle to a European market and uniquely link it to 2) estimation of the reduction in these impacts that can be funded by the consumer's willingness to pay (WTP) a premium for a low environmental-impact product., Method: The cradle-to-market Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of NZ beef on the European market included beef production on farms, meat processing, packaging and transport stages. Various beef production systems in the Lake Taupō region were modelled: farm systems with and without regulated N leaching limits in place (using N fertiliser inputs of 0 and 100 kg N/ha/year respectively) using suckler beef or beef derived from surplus calves from a dairy farm. The FARMAX model was used to model farm productivity and profitability under these various scenarios, whereas the OVERSEER® model was used to model field/farm emissions (N, phosphorus (P)) and the NZ greenhouse gas (GHG) Inventory model was used to estimate total GHG emissions. Eutrophication and climate change impacts of NZ beef to the European market were calculated using recent regionalised LCA indicators. We estimated freshwater and marine eutrophication impacts of European beef using published N emissions to water and air. We estimated the European consumer's WTP for beef with positive environmental attributes based on a meta-regression analysis based on 21 published studies and compared farmer's profit for the farm system scenarios., Results: When using common P-driven eutrophication indicators, the farms using 100 kg fertiliser-N/ha/year appeared to have a lower freshwater eutrophication impact than farms using no N fertiliser, which is in contradiction with the local freshwater policy for N regulations. When the contribution of both N and P were accounted for, the farms using no N fertiliser had the lowest estimated impact. Comparison with published environmental footprint of beef from Europe showed lower climate change and eutrophication impacts for NZ beef, thus showing potential positive environmental attributes for NZ beef. The European consumer's WTP (32% price premium) for such a beef product with low environmental impacts could offset the cost to farmers for implementing the reduction of N emissions., Conclusions: Bridging the gap between local freshwater policy and LCA indicators starts by considering both P and N emissions and impacts. Combining an environmental LCA with an economic analysis revealed that the consumer willingness to pay could compensate for the environmental cost of protecting the lake that currently only the farmers are bearing., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

More than 130 million microwaves are affected by European Union (EU) legislation which is aimed at reducing the consumption of electricity in the standby mode (‘Standby Regulation’) and at more sustainable management of end-of-life electrical and electronic waste (‘WEEE Directive’). While legislation focuses on these two life cycle stages, there is little information on the environmental impacts of the entire life cycle of microwaves. To address this gap, this paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment of microwaves and assesses the environmental implications of the Standby Regulation and the WEEE Directive at the EU level. The impacts are first considered at the level of individual appliances and then at the EU level, with the aim of evaluating the potential environmental implications of the full implementation of the above two EU regulations by 2020. The effects of the electricity decarbonisation and the expected increase in the number of microwaves in use have also been considered. The results suggest that implementation of the EU regulation by 2020 will reduce the environmental impacts considered by 4%–9% compared to the current situation. The majority of these reductions is due to the Standby Regulation, with the contribution of the WEEE Directive being small (~ 0.3%). However, the expected decarbonisation of electricity will result in much higher reductions (6%–24%) for most impact categories. The results also show that the materials used to manufacture the microwaves, the manufacturing process and end-of-life disposal are environmental hot-spots for several impacts, including depletion of abiotic elements. Therefore, efforts to reduce the environmental impacts of a future electricity mix should be combined with the development of specific eco-design regulations for microwaves that stipulate optimisation of resource consumption. Possible future trends, such as shorter lifetimes and limited availability of some resources, make the development of such product regulations more critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-perennial rivers and streams (NPRS) cover > 50% of the global river network. They are particularly predominant in Mediterranean Europe as a result of dry climate conditions, climate change and land use development. Historically, both scientists and policy makers underestimated the importance of NRPS for nature and humans alike, mainly because they have been considered as systems of low ecological and economic value. During the past decades, diminishing water resources have increased the spatial and temporal extent of artificial NPRS as well as their exposure to multiple stressors, which threatening their ecological integrity, biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of the structural and functional characteristics of NPRS in the European Mediterranean, and discuss gaps and problems in their management, concerning their typology, ecological assessment, legislative and policy protection, and incorporation in River Basin Management Plans. Because NPRS comprise highly unstable ecosystems, with strong and often unpredictable temporal and spatial variability – at least as far as it is possible to assess – we outline the future research needs required to better understand, manage and conserve them as highly valuable and sensitive ecosystems. Efficient collaborative activities among multidisciplinary research groups aiming to create innovative knowledge, water managers and policy makers are urgently needed in order to establish an appropriate methodological and legislative background. The incorporation of NPRS in EU-Med River Basin Management Plans in combination with the application of ecological flows is a first step towards enhancing NPRS management and conservation in order to effectively safeguard these highly valuable albeit threatened ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The impact of climate change on monuments and historic buildings is addressed for the first time, in terms of modelling and predicting thermal stress on stone in Europe over the next century. While the effect of changing climate on frost in porous materials and on surface recession of carbonate stone, has recently been treated, prediction of the future evolution of thermal stress on stones still requires elucidation. The present paper provides maps showing future scenarios of thermal stress on Carrara marble for the 21st century, using the output data from the Hadley general and regional climate models in the European window. The work carried out made it possible to forecast in the near and far futures (i.e. 2010–2039, 2070–2099) the number of events per year of thermal stress in marble greater than 20 MPa, the latter being adopted as the maximum sustainable load for this specific material. The data demonstrate that the Mediterranean area will continue to experience the highest level of risk from thermal stress, with more than 300 events/year predicted in the 2070–2099 period. In addition, Central Europe will be more affected by thermal stress during the present century compared to the baseline period, 1961–1990, taken as reference. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Climate change is currently attracting interest at both research and policy levels. However, it is usually explored in terms of its effect on agriculture, water, industry, energy, transport and health and as yet has been insufficiently addressed as a factor threatening cultural heritage. Among the climate parameters critical to heritage conservation and expected to change in the future, precipitation plays an important role in surface recession of stone. The Lipfert function has been taken under consideration to quantify the annual surface recession of carbonate stone, due to the effects of clean rain, acid rain and dry deposition of pollutants. The present paper provides Europe-wide maps showing quantitative predictions of surface recession on carbonate stones for the 21st century, combining a modified Lipfert function with output from the Hadley global climate model. Chemical dissolution of carbonate stones, via the karst effect, will increase with future CO2 concentrations, and will come to dominate over sulfur deposition and acid rain effects on monuments and buildings in both urban and rural areas. During the present century the rainfall contribution to surface recession is likely to have a small effect, while the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration is shown to be the main factor in increasing weathering via the karst effect. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]