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In terrestrial ecosystems, vegetation is sensitive to climate change and human activities. Its spatial-temporal changes also affect the ecological and social environment. In this paper, we considered the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region to study the spatio-temporal vegetation patterns. The detailed analysis of a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were carried out through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Our results show a slow and tortuous upward trend in the average leaf area index (LAI) in the study region for the periods 2001–2020. Specifically, Beijing had the highest LAI value, with an average of 1.64 over twenty years, followed by Hebei (1.30) and Tianjin (1.04). Among different vegetation types, forests had the highest normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with the range of 0.62–0.78, followed by shrubland (0.58–0.75), grassland (0.34–0.66), and cropland (0.38–0.54) over the years. Spatially, compared to the whole study area, index value in the northwestern part of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region increased greatly in many areas, such as northwest Beijing, Chengde, and Zhangjiakou, indicating a significant ecological optimization. Meanwhile, there was ecological degradation in the middle and southeast regions, from Tangshan southeastward to Handan, crossing Tianjin, Langfang, the east part of Baoding, Shijiazhuang, and the west part of Cangzhou. Air temperature and precipitation were positively and significantly correlated with net primary production (NPP) and precipitation stood out as a key driver. Additionally, an intensification of the urbanization rate will negatively impact the vegetation NPP, with the shrubland and forest being affected most relative to the cropland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The southern part of the Hebei Province is one of China's major crop-producing regions. Due to the continuous decline in groundwater level, agricultural water use is facing significant challenges. Precision agricultural irrigation management is undoubtedly an effective way to solve this problem. Based on multisource data (time series soil moisture active passive (SMAP) data, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration (ET), and meteorological station precipitation), the irrigation signal (frequency, timing and area) is detected in the southern part of the Hebei Province. The SMAP data was processed by the 5-point moving average method to reduce the error caused by the uncertainty of the microwave data derived SM. Irrigation signals can be detected by removing the precipitation effect and setting the SM change threshold. Based on the validation results, the overall accuracy of the irrigation signal detection is 77.08%. Simultaneously, considering the spatial resolution limitation of SMAP pixels, the SMAP irrigation area was downscaled using the winter wheat area extracted from MODIS NDVI. The analytical results of 55 winter wheat samples (5 samples in a group) showed that winter wheat covered by one SMAP pixel had an 82.72% growth consistency in surface water irrigation period, which can indicate a downscaling effectiveness. According to the above statistical analysis, this paper considers that although the spatial resolution of SMAP data is insufficient, it can reflect the change of SM more sensitively. In areas where the crop pattern is relatively uniform, the introduction of high-resolution crop pattern distribution can be used not only to detect irrigation signals but also to validate the effectiveness of irrigation signal detection by analyzing crop growth consistency. Therefore, the downscaling results can indicate the true winter wheat irrigation timing, area and frequency in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is an important agricultural parameter that is closely correlated with crop growth. In this study, a novel method combining the dynamic time warping (DTW) model and the long short-term memory (LSTM) deep recurrent neural network model was developed to predict the short and medium-term winter wheat NDVI. LSTM is well-suited for modelling long-term dependencies, but this method may be susceptible to overfitting. In contrast, DTW possesses good predictive ability and is less susceptible to overfitting. Therefore, by utilizing the combination of these two models, the prediction error caused by overfitting is reduced, thus improving the final prediction accuracy. The combined method proposed here utilizes the historical MODIS time series data with an 8-day time resolution from 2015 to 2020. First, fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to decompose the time series into two parts. The first part reflects the inter-annual and seasonal variation characteristics of winter wheat NDVI, and the DTW model is applied for prediction. The second part reflects the short-term change characteristics of winter wheat NDVI, and the LSTM model is applied for prediction. Next, the results from both models are combined to produce a final prediction. A case study in Hebei Province that predicts the NDVI of winter wheat at five prediction horizons in the future indicates that the DTW–LSTM model proposed here outperforms the LSTM model according to multiple evaluation indicators. The results of this study suggest that the DTW–LSTM model is highly promising for short and medium-term NDVI prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Crop yield estimation at a regional scale over a long period of time is of great significance to food security. In past decades, the integration of remote sensing observations and crop growth models has been recognized as a promising approach for crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. Optical remote sensing data are susceptible to cloud and rain, while synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can penetrate through clouds and has all-weather capabilities. This allows for more reliable and consistent crop monitoring and yield estimation in terms of radar sensor data. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy for winter wheat yield estimation by assimilating time series soil moisture images, which are retrieved by a water cloud model using SAR and optical data as input, into the crop model. In this study, SAR images were acquired by C-band SAR sensors boarded on Sentinel-1 satellites and optical images were obtained from a Sentinel-2 multi-spectral instrument (MSI) for Hengshui city of Hebei province in China. Remote sensing data and ground data were all collected during the main growing season of winter wheat. Both the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from Sentinel-2, and backscattering coefficients and polarimetric indicators, computed from Sentinel-1, were used in the water cloud model to derive time series soil moisture (SM) images. To improve the prediction of crop yields at the field scale, we incorporated remotely sensed soil moisture into the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) algorithm. In general, the trend of soil moisture inversion was consistent with the ground measurements, with the coefficient of determination (R2) equal to 0.45, 0.53, and 0.49, respectively, and RMSE was 9.16%, 7.43%, and 8.53%, respectively, for three observation dates. The winter wheat yield estimation results showed that the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture improved the correlation of observed and simulated yields (R2 = 0.35; RMSE =934 kg/ha) compared to the situation without data assimilation (R2 = 0.21; RMSE = 1330 kg/ha). Consequently, the results of this study demonstrated the potential and usefulness of assimilating SM retrieved from both Sentinel-1 C-band SAR and Sentinel-2 MSI optical remote sensing data into WOFOST model for winter wheat yield estimation and could also provide a reference for crop yield estimation with data assimilation for other crop types. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]