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Over the next 50 years, the potential impact of environmental change on human livelihoods could be considerable, with one possible consequence being increased levels of human mobility. This paper explores how uncertainty about the level of immigration to the United Kingdom as a consequence of environmental factors elsewhere may be forecast using a methodology involving Bayesian models. The conceptual understanding of forecasting is advanced in three ways. First, the analysis is believed to be the first time that the Bayesian modelling approach has been attempted in relation to environmental mobility. Second, the paper considers the expediency of this approach by comparing the responses to a Delphi survey with conventional expectations about environmental mobility in the research literature. Finally, the values and assumptions of the expert evidence provided in the Delphi survey are interrogated to illustrate the limited set of conditions under which forecasts of environmental mobility, as set out in this paper, are likely to hold. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, policy makers and scientists have become interested in the dynamic links between migration and environmental change (Döös in Global Environ Change 7(1):41-61, ; Adger et al. in Living with Environmental Change: Social vulnerability, adaptation and resilience in Vietnam, ; Gunderson and Holling in Panarchy-understanding transformations in systems of humans and nature, Island Press, Washington, DC, Gunderson and Holling ; Scoones et al. in Dynamic systems and the challenge of sustainability, ; Galaz et al. in Ecosystems under pressure. A policy brief for the International Commission on Climate Change and Development, ). Recently, scoping activities have emerged to produce empirical observations about the role of environmental change in decisions about human mobility, including a range of movements from voluntary to forced migration and displacement. One notable recent attempt to contribute to the base of knowledge about the links between environmental change and migration has been the European Commission co-sponsored the Environmental Change and Forced Scenarios (EACH-FOR) project. The EACH-FOR project was created to assess the impact of environmental change on migration at the local, national, regional and international level. This paper shares the methods and fieldwork experiences of a first-time, multicontinent survey of environmental change and migration from the research project supported by the European Commission: Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR, Contract Number 044468, ). This paper has three purposes. First, the authors explore issues related to how EACH-FOR designed its methodological approach for the first global survey of environmental change and migration. The paper then describes how the project attempted to create a method that would produce comparable results in a challenging context of multiple scientific challenges and trade-offs for research design. The second purpose of this paper is to examine how field researchers implemented and used this methodology in the EACH-FOR project. This paper takes a closer look at the fieldwork approach applied in investigating the 23 EACH-FOR project case studies. These case studies presented diverse local conditions and social contexts and different types of environmental changes. The paper discusses some of the practical considerations and shortcomings of the method in practice and illustrates how local researchers from selected case studies managed the challenges of their complex assignment. The third purpose of this paper is to explore lessons learned from the initial fieldwork experience and fruitful directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Growing interest in the environmental aspects of migration is not matched by research on their interrelationships, due partly to the lack of adequate data sets on the two together. Focusing on the microlevel, we describe the data required to effectively investigate these interrelationships. Data sources are discussed, including information that should be collected, focusing on household surveys and remote sensing. The main section of the paper describes three alternative approaches to data collection: (a) using existing population and environmental data from different sources, illustrated by Burkina Faso; (b) adding questions to a survey developed for another purpose, illustrated for Guatemala using a DHS survey; and (c) designing a new survey specifically to collect both migration and environmental data to investigate interrelationships, illustrated by Ecuador. Methods used and summary findings are described, followed by a discussion of their advantages and limitations. We conclude with recommendations as to effective use of each approach as research on migration-environment linkages moves forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The implications of environmental change for migration are little understood. Migration as a response to climate change could be seen as a failure of in situ adaptation methods, or migration could be alternatively perceived as a rational component of creative adaptation to environmental risk. This paper frames migration as part of an adaptation response to climate change impacts to natural resource condition and environmental hazards. Thresholds will be reached by communities after which migration will become a vital component of an effective adaptation response. Such changes to migration patterns have the potential to undermine migration policy unless appropriate preparations are undertaken. This paper describes an approach to assist researchers to frame how climate change will influence migration by critically analysing how thresholds of fundamental change to migration patterns could be identified, primarily in relation to two case studies in Nepal and Thailand. Future policy for internal and international migration could be guided by the analysis of such thresholds of non-linear migration and resourced effectively to ensure that socio-economic and humanitarian outcomes are maximised. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO2 during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are significant human impacts associated with climate change. This paper introduces a model for identifying small area risks associated with children's vulnerability to climate change-related hazard exposures, which is transferable to other regions and adaptable to varied population and exposure scenarios. The cross-national El Paso-Ciudad Juárez (US-Mexico) metropolis serves as the study area for model implementation, which involves mapping social vulnerability, hazard exposure, and cumulative climate change-related risks. This study addresses two limitations of extant fine-scale climate change vulnerability mapping studies. First, rather than focusing on one exposure variable, it assesses the combined risks of multiple exposures (extreme heat, peak ozone, and floods) and, thus, offers a model for mapping neighborhood-level cumulative climate change exposure risks. Second, it provides a model for small area spatial analyses of climate change vulnerability within low-/middle-income countries and in contexts where climate change risks (and appropriate responses) are cross-national in scope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results from a survey on attitudes toward climate change in Alberta, Canada, home to just 10% of Canada's population, but the source of 35% of the country's greenhouse-gas emissions (Environment Canada ). Results show high levels of awareness, but much lower levels of perceived climate change impacts for one's self or region. Women expressed significantly greater awareness and sense of perceived impacts about climate change than men; however, gender differences appear predominantly associated with socioeconomic factors. Indeed, in all, political ideology had the strongest predictive value, with individuals voting for the conservative party significantly less likely to anticipate significant societal climate change impacts. This finding, in turn, is strongly associated with beliefs regarding whether climate change is human induced. Particularly notable is the finding that the gender gap in climate change beliefs and perceived impacts is not attributed to gendered social roles, as indicated by occupational and familial status. Instead, gender distinctions appear to be related to the lower tendency for women to ascribe to a conservative political ideology relative to men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Across the OECD, Canada's record on CO emissions is particularly poor, with overall emissions up 32% over the 1990-2007 period. The current paper seeks to better understand this situation by making systematic comparisons of Canada with other OECD countries. For Canada overall, the rapid increase in emissions over the 1990-2007 period can be explained by several factors, including major population growth, increased affluence (although to a lesser extent than elsewhere in the OECD), a continued dependence on fossil fuels, while continuing to increase its overall demand for energy. While the energy intensity of Canada's economy has declined somewhat over recent years, it actually lagged behind most OECD countries on this front and remains one of the most energy intense economies in the world (2nd highest in the OECD on our indicator of energy intensity). While there are many factors responsible for this, Canada's particularly energy-intensive industrial structure is certainly relevant, as is the importance of its primary sector relative to most developed nations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty around long-term droughts and water scarcity has been increasing as the impacts of El Nino cycles are felt globally. Understanding how the effects of these events are manifested on the ground in communities is particularly important if governments and associated agencies are to respond appropriately. Using a qualitative approach, this paper examines the impacts of drought on two rural towns in Victoria, Australia, and explores what lessons can be drawn from local experiences. The research suggests that previous responses to drought by governments have been largely ineffectual and as such, we question whether there is a need to reshape institutional understandings of what adapting to drought might mean. This research, therefore, seeks to further the discussion surrounding drought impacts and the myriad of challenges associated with it by drawing on locally situated knowledge to inform future decision-making in this evolving field of study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent literature has suggested that population aging may shape energy demand and related emissions. Recent scholarship also suggests that emissions play a role in contemporary climate change and, as such, understanding the effect of population compositional change has considerable environmental policy importance. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the macro-level relationship between population aging and emissions of sulfur dioxide. We extend a standard macroeconomic estimation function by including the age composition of the population. In doing so, we separate, for the first time in the literature on aging and the environment, the life-cycle dimension of the age structure from its cohort dimension. We utilize data representing a balanced panel of 25 OECD countries during the period from 1970 to 2000. Consistent with our expectations, we find that societies with a low proportion of young and a high proportion of senior citizens emit more sulfur dioxide. At the same time, our results suggest that a high proportion of individuals born before 1960 is positively correlated to national sulfur dioxide emissions. Our study contributes to understanding of past emission patterns in OECD countries and the findings may allow for improvements in future emission projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many believe that linking population growth to the issue of climate change will help to place family planning back into the political realm as an urgent matter of national and environmental security. Others worry, however, that focusing on the environmental impacts of demographic change places at risk the hard-fought and long-developed global consensus that individual rights and empowerment are what matters most in fostering sustainable development and stabilizing population growth. This paper focuses on United States population policy. It presents a brief historical background and summarizes the state of scientific evidence regarding the impacts of population growth on climate change. It then analyzes some of the underlying ethical issues involved in advancing an advocacy argument around increasing family planning as a way to slow population growth and mitigating climate change. Finally, it recommends a way in which advocates can frame the connections between population growth and climate change in a just and ethical manner. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially explicit population data can play an important role in studies on environment and sustainability. Several gridded datasets on the present population exist, but global data on future populations are largely lacking. This paper presents a dataset covering three global population forecasts for the period 1990–2100 at 0.5-degrees resolution. The basis for these forecasts is the SRES scenarios developed for the IPCC climate-modeling framework. In addition, a gridded dataset of urban and rural populations for the period 1990–2050 is presented. To illustrate how the datasets can be used, future changes in population density and urbanization were analyzed for some of the world’s major river basins. This analysis shows that the population density in the Ganges basin, which is already very high, is likely to increase considerably. The highest future increase rates were found in some African and Middle-Eastern basins. The population dataset for 2015 was compared with one previously published gridded dataset. The comparison shows some differences in population density, mainly in small, highly urbanized coastal river basins, while for large basins, the two datasets agree fairly well. We hope that the datasets here presented will prove to be a useful resource also for other researchers of global environmental change and sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assesses possible migration flows which may occur from south-west Pacific islands to the United States, Australia and New Zealand, in response to climatic shifts. Population, economics and migration in small island states; Changes in temperature, sea level and precipitation; Migration-climate links; Migration pressures, constraints and costs.

The influence of seasonal change and weather on mood, social activity, weight, food consumption, and sleep length was compared across urban Aboriginals ( n = 43), urban non-Aboriginals ( n = 49), and remote Aboriginals ( n = 39) in Ontario, Canada. Such research is important since climate change may differentially shape the well-being of social groups. Behavioral items-including mood, social activity, weight, sleep, and food consumption-were measured using the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire, and associations between these items and meteorological data were examined with bivariate and multivariate approaches. Weather variables had consistent, significant associations with behavior except within the remote Aboriginal group despite living in a more extreme climate. Lifestyle and adaptation may contribute to an increased weather tolerance among remote Aboriginal people, intriguing findings as cultures grapple with the implications of future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the expected increase in weather variability from climate change, we examine the impact of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days more than a standard deviation from their respective long-run means, on household consumption per capita. The analyses suggest that both rainfall and temperature shocks affect both food and non-food consumption. Furthermore, the results show that a household's ability to protect its consumption from weather shocks depends on the climate region and when in the agricultural year the shock occurs. Especially, households in arid climates are not fully protected from weather shocks occurring during the beginning of the wet season (April, May, June). The results highlight the necessity to account for the underlying climatic variation as well as to carefully define the shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates linkages between soil conditions, farm-level vulnerability, adaptation, and rural migration during periods of drought. It begins by reviewing existing literature on climate adaptation in agricultural populations and on relationships between soil and rural migration. This is followed by a detailed case study of rural migration patterns that emerged in the Swift Current district of Saskatchewan, Canada, during a period of extended droughts and severe economic conditions in the 1930s. Using a combination of secondary literature, interviews with surviving first-hand observers and GIS modeling, the study shows how the interacting effects of household indebtedness, social capital, government relief programs, and farm-level soil quality helped stimulate population loss in many rural townships across the study area. The study focuses particularly on the role played by differential soil quality across the Swift Current district and how farms situated on sandier soils were typically more sensitive and vulnerable to drought than those situated on clay soils. Higher-than-average rates of population loss were associated with townships containing areas of poorer quality agricultural soils, an association replicable using GIS software and existing soil and population datasets. The findings from the case study are discussed within the context of the broader existing literature, and suggestions are provided on future directions for research, planning, and modeling to assist planners and policymakers concerned with rural adaptation and migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant advances have been made to understand the interrelationship between humans and the environment in recent years, yet research has not produced useful localized estimates that link population forecasts to environmental change. Coarse, static population estimates that have little information on projected growth or spatial variability mask substantial impacts of environmental change on especially vulnerable populations. We estimate that 20 million people in the United States will be affected by sea-level rise by 2030 in selected regions that represent a range of sociodemographic characteristics and corresponding risks of vulnerability. Our results show that the impact of sea-level rise extends beyond the directly impacted counties due to migration networks that link inland and coastal areas and their populations. Substantial rates of population growth and migration are serious considerations for developing mitigation, adaptation, and planning strategies, and for future research on the social, demographic, and political dimensions of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study tests theoretical arguments about gender differences in scientific knowledge and environmental concern using 8 years of Gallup data on climate change knowledge and concern in the US general public. Contrary to expectations from scientific literacy research, women convey greater assessed scientific knowledge of climate change than do men. Consistent with much existing sociology of science research, women underestimate their climate change knowledge more than do men. Also, women express slightly greater concern about climate change than do men, and this gender divide is not accounted for by differences in key values and beliefs or in the social roles that men and women differentially perform in society. Modest yet enduring gender differences on climate change knowledge and concern within the US general public suggest several avenues for future research, which are explored in the conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many developing countries are already affected by multiple stressors, which have increased their vulnerability to accelerated negative environmental change. Coastal erosion, deforestation and habitat fragmentation become even more serious problems in coastal locations when coupled with the projected impacts of climate change. However, anticipatory adaptation to such changes as increased coastal erosion and extreme events does not need to wait for specific climate scenarios, but is more reliant on the examination of current vulnerabilities and the range of possible no-regret strategies. These need to, however, accommodate multiple stakeholder preferences. This study therefore examines coastal communities’ perceptions of environmental change in northeast Zanzibar, Tanzania and their preferences for adaptive strategies, while simultaneously examining physical change processes through change analysis. The study suggests coastal forest buffer zones as an anticipatory adaptation measure, which is based on soft measures such as vegetation planting, awareness raising and stakeholder cooperation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We focus on three environmental impacts particularly influenced by population age-structure—carbon emissions from transport and residential energy and electricity consumption—as well as aggregate carbon emissions for a panel of developed countries, and take as our starting point the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Among our contributions is to further disaggregate population into three particularly key age groups: 20–34, 35–49, and 50–64, and by doing so demonstrate that population’s environmental impact differs considerably across age groups, with the older age groups (ones typically associated with larger households) actually exerting a negative influence. Furthermore, those age-specific population influences are different (in absolute and relative terms) for the different environmental impacts we analyze. Also, we find that urbanization, in developed countries, best measures access to a country’s power grid, and thus, is positively associated with energy consumption in the residential sector. Finally, we suggest some modeling and methodological improvements to the STIRPAT framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including the Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios (EACH-FOR) project, the demographic dimension of climate change, and emissions in OECD countries.